by Frank Schnittger
Mon May 27th, 2019 at 12:58:55 PM EST
Despite furious attempts to portray the vote as an endorsement of a hard no deal Brexit, the results actually support the thesis that there has been a significant shift to Remain.
The Brexit party's gain of 31.6% of the vote does not make up for the combined losses of other Leave parties of 50.3% of the vote, made up of UKIP (-24.2%), Conservatives (-14.8%), and Labour (- 11.3%); a total loss of 50.3% of the vote and a net loss for Leave of 18.7% of the vote. Even if you leave Labour out of the equation, unambiguously Leave supporting parties lost a net 7.4% of the vote.
Remain parties, on the other hand, gained a total of +22.4% of the vote, made up of Lib Dems (+13.4%), Greens (+4.2%), SNP (+1.1%) Plaid Cymru (+0.3%) and Change UK (+3.4%).
Translated into seats, this means that the Brexit party gained 29 seats, whereas UKIP (- 24), Conservatives (-15) and Labour (-10) lost a combined 49 seats for a net loss for Leave of 20 seats. Remain Parties, on the other hand, gained 20 seats: Lib Dems (+15) Greens (+4) and SNP (+1).
And that is before you consider the virtually certain gain of a seat by the Remain supporting Alliance Party in N. Ireland at the expense of the Ulster Unionists.
Disgracefully the BBC declared the Remain/Leave contest within the election a draw. But then their Polling expert psephologist Professor John Curtice was awarded a knighthood by Theresa May.