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British European Election results

by Frank Schnittger Mon May 27th, 2019 at 12:58:55 PM EST

Despite furious attempts to portray the vote as an endorsement of a hard no deal Brexit, the results actually support the thesis that there has been a significant shift to Remain.

The Brexit party's gain of 31.6% of the vote does not make up for the combined losses of other Leave parties of 50.3% of the vote, made up of UKIP (-24.2%), Conservatives (-14.8%), and Labour (- 11.3%); a total loss of 50.3% of the vote and a net loss for Leave of 18.7% of the vote. Even if you leave Labour out of the equation, unambiguously Leave supporting parties lost a net 7.4% of the vote.

Remain parties, on the other hand, gained a total of +22.4% of the vote, made up of Lib Dems (+13.4%), Greens (+4.2%), SNP (+1.1%) Plaid Cymru (+0.3%) and Change UK (+3.4%).

Translated into seats, this means that the Brexit party gained 29 seats, whereas UKIP (- 24), Conservatives (-15) and Labour (-10) lost a combined 49 seats for a net loss for Leave of 20 seats. Remain Parties, on the other hand, gained 20 seats: Lib Dems (+15) Greens (+4) and SNP (+1).

And that is before you consider the virtually certain gain of a seat by the Remain supporting Alliance Party in N. Ireland at the expense of the Ulster Unionists.

Disgracefully the BBC declared the Remain/Leave contest within the election a draw. But then their Polling expert psephologist Professor John Curtice was awarded a knighthood by Theresa May.


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A friend uses slightly different, but more justifiable imo, arithmetic and comes up with something more ambiguous

For Brexit - Brexit Party, UKIP, 50% of Change UK, 50% of Conservatives and 50% of Labour = 48.10% of the vote

Against Brexit - Liberal Democrats, Green Party, SNP, Plaid Cymru, 50% of Change UK, 50 % of Labour and 50% of Conservatives = 50.38%

the problem we have is there really should be a halfway position that could be negotiated. Sadly that might have been achieved if Theresa May had had a different mindset and was willing to reach, but both sides are dug in and demand the abolutism of winner takes all.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 05:05:54 PM EST
The Remain fraction was almost certainly much larger for Labour and much smaller for the Tories.

Disaffected Lexiters very likely voted TBP, and so did most pro-Brexit Tories.

I'd guess at least 60% of Labour voters were pro-Remain, but less than 20% of Tories.

Also, I'd be very surprised if CHUK had significant Brexiter support.

Which would put the numbers closer to those that are being seen in polls, with 55-60% for Remain.

And I don't think anyone wants a compromise. A compromise was never in May's gift, because the ERG and the other headbangers were never going to accept one, and Remainers were only ever going to accept one very reluctantly.

By pushing hard for No Deal, the ERG are going to be left with Remain.

IMO, given party splits and biases, the opposite is far less likely to happen now.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 05:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is the side issue that there is no compromise position. You're in, or you're out, and the dynamics mean that out is going to be a pretty hard out within a few years, probably followed by an accession process. Brexit is now the defining issue of British politics for at least the next generation.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue May 28th, 2019 at 12:34:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I base my additions on the declared policy positions of the parties concerned. ChangeUK is 100% Remain, Labour policy is to support a soft Brexit, the Tories campaigned (insofar as they did) on May's deal. We can all make assumptions about what party supporters want, but objectively they voted for parties espousing particular policies.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 07:37:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Considering that voting is subjective and sometimes strategic - never mind local - I don't think it's possible to claim that votes are objective at all.

In my proxy constituency one of the sitting MEPs is a staunch pro-EU Labour remainer. He was re-elected by a comfortable margin - which wouldn't have happened if his supporters had decided they were voting for a pro-Brexit party.

The only true single-issue voters were TBP supporters, Greens, and many LibDems. The main parties, especially Labour, had a much more complex profile of support.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 07:47:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you count Labour as leave, then you get 58% leave. Not that I think you should.

I think that the result reflects that remain has started to use this election as a proxy for referendum, just as leave has done for a long time with UKIP. However, there's still going to be a sizeable number who vote for party loyalty reasons or because of personalities, and some who vote for policy reasons. Maybe even a few who vote for policy reasons over which the elected MEPs will have influence, you never know.

Not that it will stop the different sides from claiming victory, though.

by fjallstrom on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 05:49:07 PM EST

What we didn't see is a strong increase in participation, even though it has been stylized as a proxy referendum. What is the age profile of the Brexit voter? Around the average Tory party member? How many loyal Labour members set the election out? Will anything remain of the LibDem surge in a general election? What I read from this result is "do whatever" about Brexit.

by generic on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 07:44:01 PM EST
I agree the turnout was disappointing, but with the Conservatives and (to a lesser extent) Labour in turmoil and riven with divisions, may of their supporters could have sat this one out. On a purely practical level, many voters might have thought there wasn't much point in voting for MEPs who would only have seats for a few months. Anyone who didn't have strong views on Brexit, one way or the other, had little incentive to vote.  In that context, an increase in overall turnout is not a particularly bad outcome, although I think it a pity the increase wasn't greater.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 08:51:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, turnout is also a factor. This wasn't a general election and was the target for tactical voting for several reasons.

As we all know that older, more conservative, voters are far more likely to vote, especially in what are barely even 2nd order elections, it's probable that, at 31%, this was the brexit party's high water mark.

Both major parties will recover their electorate at a General Election. Even at their most powerful, UKIP with Farage were incapable of winning more than a token vote. I can't see that changing even now. Brexit are a one man band and there's a sign that journalist's patience with the Farage evasion bandwagon is growing thin. He'll face a less fawning press and I think he will find that tiresome.

The only thing that will give him comfort is the possibility of Boris as PM, which will probably destroy them.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 07:46:14 PM EST
Naomi Long(Alliance, pro-Remain) has easily won a seat in Northern Ireland displacing an Ulster Unionist.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 08:26:20 PM EST
I just love the redistribution of votes.
The preferences from the (centrist, nominally secular, Catholic) SDLP candidate distributed 2 to 1 in favour of the (centrist, nominally secular, Protestant) Alliance canditate over the Sinn Fein candidate.

Brexit not being much of a factor in this case.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Jun 3rd, 2019 at 09:25:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Brexit not being much of a factor in this case."

I think it was. Perhaps not in the transfer of votes from the SDLP to Alliance )as both Alliance and Sinn Fein are Remain), but in the massive boost to the core Alliance first preference vote which I suspect came mostly from Remainer unionists disillusioned with the Leave stance of the Unionist parties.  N. Ireland voted 56% Remain, and I suspect that preference has increased since. There was no where else for Remainer Unionists to go.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 3rd, 2019 at 10:29:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
PS detailed breakdown of transfers here.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 3rd, 2019 at 10:31:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jeremy Corbyn is in town (Dublin) to drum up support for his Brexit strategy and hopes to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement should he ever achieve power.

Helpfully the government here has shielded him from media scrutiny which may be just as well as he has no answers for the questions he is likely to face. For instance why should Ireland and the EU give him a better deal than we gave Theresa May after 2 long years of negotiations? Precisely what favours do we owe him after the damage Brexit has already done to our economy and the peace process in the North?

If he has come with some new ideas, then perhaps all well and good. They should be considered. But so far his public utterances have done nothing to dispel the notion that he is still hell bent on pursuing Brexit even after it has become clear an increasing majority of British people have changed their minds.

Brexit Supporting parties UKIP (- 24), Conservatives (-15), Labour (-10) and Ulster Unionists (-1) have just lost 50 European Parliament seats while The Brexit party gained just 29.  That net loss of 21 seats has gone directly to explicitly Remain parties - Lib Dems (+15), Greens (+4), SNP (+1) and Alliance Party (+1)..

If Corbyn won't represent his own people, then why should we listen to him?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 30th, 2019 at 02:29:37 PM EST
Third letter down

Corbyn has no hope of getting a better deal

Jeremy Corbyn was in town to drum up support for his Brexit strategy and hopes to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, should he ever achieve power.

Helpfully, the Government here has shielded him from media scrutiny, which may be just as well as he has no answers for the questions he is likely to face.

For instance, why should Ireland and the EU give him a better deal than we gave Theresa May after two long years of negotiations? Precisely what favours do we owe him after the damage Brexit has already done to our economy and the peace process in the North?

If he has some new ideas, then perhaps all well and good. They should be considered. But so far his public utterances have done nothing to dispel the notion that he is still hell-bent on pursuing Brexit even after it has become clear an increasing majority of British people have changed their minds.

Brexit-supporting parties Ukip (-24), Conservatives (-15), Labour (-10) and Ulster Unionists (-1) have just lost 50 European Parliament seats while the Brexit party gained just 29. That net loss of 21 seats has gone directly to explicitly Remain parties - Lib Dems (+15), Greens (+4), SNP (+1) and the Alliance Party (+1).

If Corbyn won't represent his own people, then why should we listen to him?

Frank Schnittger



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 1st, 2019 at 09:46:57 AM EST
One of the curious features of polling for the next UK general elections is YouGov's performance in always calling the result a tie between the Conservatives and Labour.

Their poll for 29/30th. of April had them tied on 29% apiece.
On 8/9th,. May it was 24% apiece
On 13/14th. May it was 25% apiece
On 28/29th. May it was 19% apiece with the added stinger that the Lib Dems on 24% and Brexit Party on 22% were actually ahead of both.

What are the chances of this happening by random chance?

Meanwhile all other polling firms had Labour up to 10% ahead. It is almost as if YouGov are contractually obliged never to show Labour ahead, no matter how badly the Conservatives are doing in all other polling.

In polling for the European Parliament elections, on the other hand, YouGov consistently has the Brexit party doing significantly better than other pollsters and the actual election results.

In Remain/Leave polling, it generally has the Remain lead at 4/5% - less than most other pollsters.

What gives? Methinks they need to re-check their sampling methodology or the filters they apply to thir raw data results...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 1st, 2019 at 11:20:23 AM EST
Their sampling methodology is that of a web-poll:


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Then just fill in your data. Maybe you are a young black man in London? Maybe you are an old white woman in the countryside? Why not both?

Then of course there is the matter of what data they present and to whom:

Nigel Farage, the global face of the Brexit campaign, had given Sky what sounded like a concession. His photo and a statement filled the screen, as Faisal Islam, Sky's political editor, read Farage's words aloud: "It's been an extraordinary referendum campaign, turnout looks to be exceptionally high and [it] looks like Remain will edge it. UKIP and I are going nowhere and the party will only continue to grow stronger in the future."

In the next segment, Boulton delivered another exclusive. Joe Twyman, head of political research for YouGov, one of the U.K.'s most prominent polling firms, appeared on set with the results of an online exit poll conducted for Sky. He explained that the firm had been tracking the same voters--and they had moved farther into the Remain camp that day. Based on that, Twyman said, "We now expect that the United Kingdom will remain part of the European Union. It's 52 percent Remain, 48 percent Leave, so it's still close and it's still too early to know definitely--but, based on the figures that we're seeing, based on the trends that have occurred, and based on historical precedent--we think that Remain are in the strongest position." As in past elections, Twyman added, voters had embraced the status quo on Election Day.

[...]

Behind the scenes, a small group of people had a secret--and billions of dollars were at stake. Hedge funds aiming to win big from trades that day had hired YouGov and at least five other polling companies, including Farage's favorite pollster. Their services, on the day and in the days leading up to the vote, varied, but pollsters sold hedge funds critical, advance information, including data that would have been illegal for them to give the public. Some hedge funds gained confidence, through private exit polls, that most Britons had voted to leave the EU, or that the vote was far closer than the public believed--knowledge pollsters provided while voting was still underway and hours ahead of official tallies. These hedge funds were in the perfect position to earn fortunes by short selling the British pound. Others learned the likely outcome of public, potentially market-moving polls before they were published, offering surefire trades.

From selling data on the side to betters, I would say it is a short jump to sell pre-packaged answers. Absent leaks, it is not like anyone can check.

by fjallstrom on Sat Jun 1st, 2019 at 01:55:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A long time ago I saw a comedy programme based on a market research agency. Having arrived at some conclusions based on vary expensive qualitative & quantitative research they discovered that the office secretary had opinions identical to the conclusions of the study. Thereafter they just asked her her opinions and dispensed with the research...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 1st, 2019 at 11:15:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just as Yes Minister and even Black Mirror seem to be coming true, I'm sure that is how some of them do it.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 2nd, 2019 at 02:53:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect that YouGove have become the Rasmussen of UK politics; selling a comforting notion of conservative hegemony to the right wing and hoping to bootstrap a genuine conservative tide off the back of it.

However, unlike the US, there is a party to the right of the Tories and Sky are just as eager to boost their chances as that of the Establishment party.

Sky may be a Murdoch vehicle but it doesn't have anything like the reach or credibility of Fox in the UK political media landscape.

If you want to follow a reliable indicator, most of the press seem to use Survation these days, who nailed the last couple of elections. Accuracy counts more than propaganda somehow

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 2nd, 2019 at 02:50:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A day after the Irish Independent had published my full letter to the editor, the Irish Times published a truncated version leaving out the evidence I adduced to make my point:

Corbyn's Brexit conundrum

Sir, - Jeremy Corbyn was in town last week to drum up support for his Brexit strategy and his hopes to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement should he ever achieve power. Helpfully the Government here shielded him from media scrutiny, which may be just as well as he has no answers for the questions he is likely to face. Why should Ireland and the EU give him a better deal than we gave Theresa May after two long years of negotiations? Precisely what favours do we owe him after the damage Brexit has already done to our economy and the peace process in the North?

If he came with new ideas, then perhaps all well and good. They should be considered. But so far his public utterances have done nothing to dispel the notion that he is still hell-bent on pursuing Brexit, even after it has become clear that an increasing majority of British people have changed their minds.If Mr Corbyn won't represent his own people, then why should we listen to him? - Yours, etc,

FRANK SCHNITTGER,

I don't like expressing views without at least referencing some supporting evidence...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 3rd, 2019 at 06:13:47 PM EST
Are the Irish media turning into the US media?  "We don't need no stinkin' evidence 'cause we just publish what our corporate overlords tell us to!"
by rifek on Tue Jun 4th, 2019 at 02:08:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it's no the media. Just that the Times got Times, yo.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Jun 4th, 2019 at 02:11:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, I suspect it's just the letters page Editor favouring brevity and "opinions". Facts and analysis belonging to the news pages etc. Problem is I hadn't seen my analysis of the results highlighted elsewhere...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jun 5th, 2019 at 07:59:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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