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UK Local Election Results [Update 5]

by Frank Schnittger Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 04:59:06 AM EST

The UK Local Council elections took place yesterday and the votes are currently being counted. The elections took place in much of England and all of N. Ireland but not in Scotland, Wales, London and smaller parts of England. Turnout has been quite low, in the 30-40% range, but this is normal for local elections if they are held on their own. The last major Local elections were held in 2015 at the same time as the general election of that year.

Despite the growing disparity between the performance of the Conservatives and Labour, the BBC is still headlining its Election report by saying "the Conservatives and Labour have lost hundreds of seats"... The Conservatives and UKIP, the leave supporting parties have lost a combined 1,500 seats, while the Lib Dems and Greens, Remain supporters, have gained 900. And yet Corbyn and May think the elections represent a mandate to complete Brexit.

With 100% of the votes counted, the main trend is that pro-Remain Lib Dems and Greens are gaining a lot of seats at the expense of the Pro-Leave Conservatives and UKIP parties. The Conservatives have lost 1,334 seats. Labour, which has tried to have it both ways, has ended up treading water and losing 82 seats and control of some councils. The other major trend has been a big gain for independent candidates at the expense of the major incumbent parties - usually the Conservatives, but sometimes Labour as well.


Overall this has been a very poor result for the two main parties, and a triumphant comeback for the Liberals. It has also been a debut for the Greens as major players on the UK political scene. It is not clear from the BBC website, where the graphic below is sourced, whether it adjusts for the fact that London (a Labour stronghold) did not go to the polls yesterday.

The new Brexit and ChangeUK parties are not contesting these elections so these early results are not necessarily a clear indicator for how the European Parliament elections will turn out. Local elections are also often fought on local issues, but on this occasion many candidates reported that Brexit was the most important issue for most voters.

The talking heads for the various parties and "expert" commentators on the BBC are putting these results down to four main factors:

  1. It is normal for the Governing party to lose seats the longer it has been in power. Labour lost several thousand seats at the equivalent stage after 9 years in power. Up until now the Tories have only lost 500 seats.

  2. The position of a party on Brexit, and the clarity with which it has articulated that position.

  3. Voters tend not to vote for divided parties.

  4. In some areas particular local factors may have had a decisive influence.

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In the Northern Ireland 2014 local elections the DUP won the most seats even though Sinn Fein which most votes. The Ulster Unionist Party and the Alliance Party did relatively well. It will be interesting to see if they can sustain that relative success.

The last N. Ireland Local Elections at the same time as the European Parliament elections which would have boosted the turnout. This time around turnout is also estimated to be quite high, at 50-55%, and the first results are now in. It is too early to discern any trend, however.

The big question in N. Ireland is whether the big two parties - DUP and Sinn Fein - will suffer the same fate as the big two in England - Conservatives and Labour - and suffer a loss of seats to some of the smaller parties, the Official Unionists, Alliance, Greens and SDLP.

While England has been in the grips of Brexit paralysis, the political situation in N.Ireland is, if anything, much worse. Not only have the DUP been pursuing a hard Brexit policy against the wishes of the majority of N. Ireland voters, but the N. Ireland Assembly and Executive has been in abeyance for over two years because of a breakdown in relations between the DUP and Sinn Fein.

The Renewable Heat Initiative scandal is still rumbling on, and violence has returned to the streets. Voters may well use the local elections to register a protest against the stalemate, although most observers still expect the poll to degenerate into a tribal headcount.

With over half the seats filled, patterns are beginning to emerge in the N. Ireland Local elections. However it would be wrong to read too much into these initial results. The final seat totals for each party will only become clearer as the lower preference votes of defeated candidates are distributed. Sometimes, in the Single Transferable Vote multi seat constituency system, winning a lot of the early seats with poll topping performances can be a very wasteful use of votes, and the party with less first preferences better distributed between viable candidates can end up with the more seats. Remarkably, I can find no data on the percentage of the first preference vote for each party, particularly, by comparison with 2014. The initial indications are that the changes since 2014 are reasonably minimal, although Alliance and the Greens have done particularly well.

Display:
I was seeing a lot, I mean a LOT, of disillusion with Labour's position on my FB stream. Corbyn's position made sense 2 years ago but looks increasingly out of step with party and even public sentiment.

However, the figure that leaps out at me is ukip being down so far. That, c/w the fall in the tories shows that there is a real groundswell towards avowedly anti-brexit parties. Labour could not benefit,

btw, it is a media trope that divided parties do not prosper; this only applies to Labour where the media will forensically magnify any imagined point of difference, Problems within the Tories are still massively glossed over while their electorate, being les principled, don't care about arguments so long as their class interests are protected.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 07:05:58 AM EST
I love seeing an establishment take a good kicking from the voters.
by IdiotSavant on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 07:20:40 AM EST
The council elections are a bit of democracy theatre, but have no real influence on national policy. The Establishment won't find these results unduly troubling, because the Establishment doesn't care about them.

The BBC is dutifully spinning the results as a "People want Brexit done" protest vote - which will be partly true, on the Tory side.

As far as the Establishment is concerned no one else matters, so the LibDem gains are just noise.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat May 4th, 2019 at 08:06:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 08:47:17 AM EST
Is there no end to BoJo's stupidity?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 10:54:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He may have voted in his other home in Oxfordshire, apparently. And then remembered that he's meant to be from London so that wasn't a very good look.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 11:08:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably registered to vote in both? Are Tories entitled to a vote for every home they own?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 11:11:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yup, apparently so. I'm suprised it's not the case in general elections too.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 11:59:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah the good old property franchise... Time to bring it back, what what?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 12:59:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No representation without taxation...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 02:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you claiming that De Pfeffel Johnson actually pays taxes?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 02:15:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Only people who own land can vote

Declaration of Independence signed. Right to vote during the Colonial and Revolutionary periods is restricted to property owners - most of whom are white male Protestants over the age of 21. But, New Jersey's constitution of the same year enfranchised all adult inhabitants who owned a specified amount of property, including women [no, not as property but as in the right to vote - Oui].

Can't imagine the American folks would ever give slaves or their decendants the right to vote. Hang 'm ... or in modern days use blue power and shoot 'm.

The Caravan of "Immigrants" nearly two centuries ago in America ... East coast!

Retracing Slavery's Trail of Tears | Smithsonian |

The company's agents sent people down to Franklin & Armfield's slavepens in Alexandria, just nine miles south of the U.S. Capitol: seamstresses, nurses, valets, field hands, hostlers, carpenters, cooks, houseboys, coachmen, laundresses, boatmen. There were so-called fancy girls, young women who would work mainly as concubines. And, always, children.

    Bill Keeling, male, age 11, height 4'5" | Elisabeth, female, age 10, height 4'1" | Monroe, male, age 12, height 4'7" | Lovey, female, age 10, height 3'10" | Robert, male, age 12, height 4'4" | Mary Fitchett, female, age 11, height 4'11"

By August, Armfield had more than 300 ready for the march. Around the 20th of that month the caravan began to assemble in front of the company's offices in Alexandria, at 1315 Duke Street.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 02:29:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He plays a loveable idiot on TV and half of it is genuine.
by generic on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 11:43:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
is not a bad record for conservative politicians these days...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 02:30:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
UK Council election is not my cup of tea ;)

I did take a look at the results in the first decade where the Conservatives made overwhelming gains vs Labour with leaders Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. UKIP did briefly upset some results later, but the local elections also have a very low turn-out.

The local elections for councillors should not be a measure of nationwide politics and policies. Often the themes like Brexit will trump local issues ... will the voter go to the polling booth or just stay away from frustration?

In the US the right-wing influence in the Republican Party grew in State elections and for governorships. The massive gains by Tea Party candidates forced a change in nationwide election campaigns and made the success of a nitwit like Donald Trump possible. Nobody wanted Trump, but now the GOP welcomes his "success" in cutting tax rates for the wealthy and the profits for corporations as the DOW soares to record highs. No one is talking federal debt as the monetary policy keeps the Fed rates at an all-time low.

See my new comment on the Fed nominee Stephen Moore - what a joke! American exceptionalism.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 09:11:44 AM EST
Did you miss it? After the failed candidacy of Herman Cain for a seat on the Fed, Trump has proposed Stephen Moore for that very seat. Just unbelievable ... Trump does all that God forbids ... sorry I forgot, God is owned by the Evangelical preachers across the Wild West and Red states.

Link to my comment here, read more ...

Re: The American Century - End of Exceptionalism

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 02:05:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thursday morning, despite an increasing chorus of skeptics among Senate Republicans, Stephen Moore insisted that he was still on the verge of being formally nominated to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors.

"I'm all in," he told Bloomberg reporters.

The White House, however, was not. Within a couple of hours, President Donald Trump had pulled the plug. "Steve Moore, a great pro-growth economist and a truly fine person, has decided to withdraw from the Fed process," he tweeted. "I've asked Steve to work with me toward future economic growth in our Country."

Moore follows Herman Cain, whom Trump said he would nominate to the Fed but who withdrew after extensive criticism, especially over past accusations of sexual harassment. In Moore's case, the crucial flaws were a long record of economic illiteracy and offensive remarks, especially about women.

Trump sure picks 'em.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 03:44:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doh, now I've clicked on your link...

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 03:46:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clearly, truly, a fine person, fit to walk in Trump's footsteps, a few paces back...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 05:26:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are there any anti-growth economists? "pro-growth economist" is meaningless noise.
by StillInTheWilderness on Mon May 13th, 2019 at 04:25:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't that describe all the austerity economists?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon May 13th, 2019 at 04:31:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Kenneth Boulding a co-founder of General Systems Theory.  

One of his quotes:

Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 14th, 2019 at 04:32:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What I haven't figured out (for want of interest) is why so much, if not all, public opposition to these nominees has come from the GOP organ of "surrogates". How is it, given the circumstances of Trump "tyranny" and deregulation, that any of them may be bothered to object?

I suppose, the nominee who finally poses no objections from GOP senators will supply a rationale of sorts, typically, profit potential.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 03:48:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pro-Brexit parties get a kicking.

Anti-brexit parties see record gains.

Labour's deputy leader interprets this as voters wanting them to get Brexit "sorted":

Muppets, all the way down.

by IdiotSavant on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 10:24:49 AM EST
Which are the "sort it" parties that won?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 10:32:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But of course people voted for Remain parties because they wanted Brexit to happen quicker!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 10:33:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
RTE is funded in part or in whole by Ireland government.

First results declared in Northern Ireland local elections
2019-Local-Elections-2019-Latest-Northern-Ir.png">

Sinn Féin's Darren Totten won the first seat in the Mid Ulster District Council. He topped the poll in Magherfelt with 1,665 first preference votes. Other candidates elected include the DUP's Clement Cuthbertson and Independent Barry Monteith in the Mid Ulster Council. ... A total of 819 local council candidates are standing for 462 available seats across the 11 council areas.
Belfast Telegraph

Election results: Alison Bennington becomes DUP's first openly gay elected politician
"We will be bringing you live results from every count centre from early this afternoon - Visit our Election hub - and check out the results as they come in from each council"
Young farmers sorry for `blacking-up' at Tyrone drama event
"The pictures were posted on the Cappagh Young Farmers' Facebook account last weekend and showed several participants posing with 'blacked-up' faces following their win at the Rosebowl competition. The Ulster Herald reported that the Cappagh club deleted the picture from its social media account after being contacted for comment." as is the custom
Listicle: Five things to watch for when the votes are cast
"This is the first electoral test for the SDLP since its new partnership with Fianna Fail was announced three months ago."

Online registration sees local electorate reach record high of 1.3m ahead of council poll
"Around 80% of applications to vote i have been made online since the new system was introduced last summer."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 05:26:18 PM EST
Ukip loses 80% of council seats in local election

Ukip has lost around 80 per cent of the council seats it defended on Thursday, in a local election hammering following a politcal lurch to the right.

Gerard Batten's party went into Thursday's contest with 111 councillors and ended up with just 24, as of the 4.30pm tally on results day.

The party has mostly failed to capitalise on the collapse of the Conservatives, with its former leader Nigel Farage taking the lions share of Brexiteer support in polls with his new Brexit Party venture.



"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 06:42:51 PM EST
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn face Brexit backlash
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are both facing a backlash from their MPs and councillors after Brexit chaos delivered a disappointing local election showing for the main parties.

Brexiteers pointed the finger of blame at Ms May over her failure to deliver on Brexit, with one senior figure saying she should stand down as voters think she has "lost the plot".

The Labour leadership also faced angry recriminations over its performance at the ballot box, with different Brexit factions arguing it has paid the price for sitting on the fence.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats were triumphant over their best result since the Iraq War in 2003, as smaller parties appeared to capitalise on the frustration felt by voters.



"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 3rd, 2019 at 06:48:42 PM EST
All four Unionist parties lost seats! DUP -8, UUP -13, TUV -7, PUP -1

Wikipedia is partly financed by me

Alliance is the big winner. Is this finally a glimmer of hope for the de-sectarianisation of northern Irish protestants?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue May 7th, 2019 at 09:26:59 AM EST
Probably not.
DUP increased their % share of first preferences votes but lost seats. Either got unlucky or outplayed on the lower order preference voting.
by det on Tue May 7th, 2019 at 10:23:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Got lucky last time. Not so much this time.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 7th, 2019 at 02:55:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All the explicitly Unionist parties were losers; Alliance (nominally non-sectarian but of Protestant origin) being the obvious beneficiaries. Looks like a shift away from the loony right.

On the Catholic side, SDLP were the big losers. Sinn Fein unchanged. The non-sectarian Greens and PBP gained. Looks like a shift left.

All good.  

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue May 7th, 2019 at 03:50:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All positive, yes, (except for DUP) but we are talking about shifts of plus or minus one or two percent - except for the alliance



Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 7th, 2019 at 04:39:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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