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July Thread

by Bjinse Tue Jul 9th, 2019 at 07:49:08 PM EST

And so with the sunshine and the great bursts of leaves growing on the trees, just as things grow in fast threads


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Fresh linen, it looked needed. I am back for gnome duty, glad to see folks haven't wrecked this place.

Now let me wade, bravely and valiantly, into the hordes of unopened mail.

by Bjinse on Tue Jul 9th, 2019 at 07:55:34 PM EST
Have you checked all the rooms?

Still under attack by Der Trumpf and Boris of the demolition team ... May on her way out.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Tue Jul 9th, 2019 at 09:03:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NIH
High-risk patients with heart failure and cardiac arrest hospitalized in teaching hospitals had lower 30-day mortality when admitted during dates of national cardiology meetings.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Jul 12th, 2019 at 03:06:40 PM EST


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Jul 12th, 2019 at 11:07:32 PM EST

Heh.
by generic on Sun Jul 14th, 2019 at 05:02:12 AM EST
So I think I got it covered by now:

  • Status of unequal income distribution in modern economy: unchanged;
  • England is getting a new prime minister the worst Brexit deserves;
  • the US still has a leader the world doesn't deserve;
  • The Democrats are picking a Presidential candidate Democratic voters don't deserve;
  • European leaders picked a new Commission that Europeans didn't deserve;
  • We're still on track to a future climate our children don't deserve.

Anything else I missed?
by Bjinse on Tue Jul 16th, 2019 at 07:44:15 AM EST
I think that's more than enough to be getting along with

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 16th, 2019 at 07:49:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, tomorrow we'll find ourselves with Boris Johnston announced as UK Prime Minister.

So, we're still in silly season where mad things are being suggested which might throw spanners in th works. And, of course, if we're being totally silly, the LibDems have a new leader as well promising the she will oppose brexit with every fibre of her being. Which, given their recent record of supporting the Tories, is quite seet really.

Even madder, the scuttlebutt is talking of anything between 2 and 11 Tories resigning to join the LibDems rather than support a Boris-led Tory Government, leading to a vote of no-confidence and a General Election in September/October. The evidence for this seems to be 2 or 3 people who were never going to be asked refusing to be Ministers in a Boris Cabinet.

Pardon me if I think people are getting a little over-excited. Tories are ammoral scum who would happily eat their granny on live TV if it meant they got to keep their seat and directorships for another electoral cycle.

Whatever disasters await the country, the Tories will happily sign up for it, they aren't the rebellious kind. Still, it allows journos to fill column inches in breathless manner.

My advice : Believe nothing till it happens. And even then look closely

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 22nd, 2019 at 06:10:47 PM EST
So Boris will become Prime Minister and Parliament will immediately go on summer vacation until Sept. 4th?

Do I have that right?

If I do, good thing there's nothing important happening.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Jul 22nd, 2019 at 06:34:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sadly no. There seems to be a mood that any newly appointed members of the Cabinet will say around Westminster and take command of their brief. This means that civil servants leave will be cancelled, which will impact family holidays and is going to go down like a cup of cold sick with the people the Tories need to be onside to get their shit done.

Of course, I imagine Boris will go on holiday, cos he's a lazy waste of space

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 22nd, 2019 at 07:13:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I heard that a group of folks who actually want to accomplish something in July and August pooled and purchased his vacation tickets and accommodations.  To Timbuktu.  In a 737 Max.
by rifek on Tue Jul 23rd, 2019 at 02:54:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ha, I'd have contributed if asked

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 23rd, 2019 at 07:33:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However today ...

Tour de France



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Fri Jul 26th, 2019 at 03:07:14 PM EST
Paleontologists are now looking for the Dino-doglike creature which buried this bone ... later :)

Angeac Charente site

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Jul 26th, 2019 at 05:19:10 PM EST
Mutter und Kind wurden auf Gleis gestoßen - Hintergründe weiter unklar

Update, 12:53 Uhr: Die Mutter und der Sohn wurden heute Morgen um kurz vor zehn Uhr in das Gleisbett des Gleis 7 gestoßen. Dies teilt eine Sprecherin der Frankfurter Polizei mit. Die 40-jährige Mutter konnte sich noch retten, das Kind leider nicht mehr. Laut Polizei war das Kind sofort tot. Nach ersten Erkenntnissen der Polizei hatten Täter, Mutter und Kind keinen verwandschaftlichen Hintergrund. Der mutmaßliche Täter wurden in der Nähe des Frankfurter Hauptbahnhofs festgenommen. Er wird zur Stunde verhört. Die Polizei geht von einem Tötungsdelikt aus.  

Boy, 8, dies in Germany after being pushed onto train tracks

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Jul 29th, 2019 at 11:59:24 AM EST
Sites could be liable for helping Facebook secretly track your web browsing, says EU court - The Verge
The European Union's top court says website owners could face legal risk over Facebook's ubiquitous "Like" buttons. The Court of Justice of the European Union ruled today that site owners could be held liable for transmitting data to Facebook without users' consent -- which appears to be exactly what happens when users visit a site with a Like button, whether or not they click it.

The ruling doesn't stop Facebook, or other companies with similar widgets, from offering these options. But sites must obtain consent from users before sending data to Facebook, unless they can demonstrate a "legitimate interest" in doing otherwise. Right now, data gets seemingly sent to Facebook as the page loads -- before users have a chance to opt out. So in the future, sites might have to approach Like buttons differently.

Such as the Facebook button just at the top of this page...

by Bernard on Mon Jul 29th, 2019 at 08:24:25 PM EST
Reading this piece instead of finishing my projects:
IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle - INCERTO - Medium
(Revised draft: added comments on sinister country profiling. Also 1) Turns out IQ beats random selection in the best of applications by less than 6%, typically <2%, as the computation of correlations have a flaw and psychologists do not seem to know the informational value of correlation in terms of "how much do I gain information about B knowing A" and propagation of error (intra-test variance for a single individual). 2) Showed noise IQ/Weath, 3) Added information showing the story behind the effectiveness of Average National IQ is, statistically, a fraud. The psychologists who engaged me on this piece -- with verbose writeups --made the mistake of showing me the best they got: papers with the strongest pro-IQ arguments. They do not seem to grasp what noise/signal really means in practice. For some technical backbone to this piece,see here.)
by generic on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 12:10:10 PM EST
Talib is insufferable as always and brings lot of his pet obsessions into the discussion but this is damning enough:
IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle - INCERTO - Medium
Additional Variance: Unlike measurements of height or wealth, which carry a tiny relative error, many people get yuugely different results for the same IQ test (I mean the same person!), up to 2 standard deviations as measured across people, higher than sampling error in the population itself! This additional source of sampling error weakens the effect by propagation of uncertainty way beyond its predictability when applied to the evaluation of a single individual. It also tells you that you as an individual are vastly more diverse than the crowd, at least with respect to that measure!

IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle - INCERTO - Medium

There are contradictory stories about whether IQ ceases to work past a threshold, since Terman's longitudinal study of "geniuses". What these researchers don't get is these contradictions come from the fact that the variance of the IQ measure increases with IQ. Not a good thing.

IQs a bust.

by generic on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 12:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you renamed IQ , from "Intelligent Quotient" to FQ "Functionary Quotient" or SQ "Salaryperson Quotient", then some of the stuff will be true. It measures best the ability to be a good slave confined to linear tasks. "IQ" is good for @davidgraeber's "BS jobs".


Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 01:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IQ tests are a bust cos repeated attempts and coaching on techniques improves your score. Therefore what is being measured is not intelligence.

Also, we now understand that "intelligence" is not a single score but mnifests quite differently with different people, so a set of tests is unlikely to cover most of the skill sets, let alone create a satisfactory single figure to decide who is or who is not capable.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 03:48:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You have to remember that, at least in the US, people get shunted into psychology majors by desperate college counselors who do not know what else to do with people who have the math skills of a turnip.
by rifek on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 03:53:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If by "turnip" you refer to the root vegetable that fell off the truck this morning: a credulous, gullible, naive person.

"Intelligence" having little to do with measurement of one's proficiency applying alegbraic or arithmetic or geometry rules sets to manipulation of quantitative values. Then again, it's my view 95% of any functional skill sets (lately aided by CS computational fomulae) require no more sophistication than rudimentary rote mastery and application of algebraic and geometric ahh (theorem) postulates.

death of "long division"

Statistical information has a valuable place in estimating limits of tangible, physical properties (ie. periodic elements) of things manufactured by people for people consumption. Mechanical engineering would not normally include "psychology," it is true, if only because granularity of interaction observations between these physical properties relative to human physiology and their certain expression are unknown, indeterminate or immeasurable. Why pretend otherwise?

I have seen things (ROY, Blade Runner) over the past 35 years that suggest to me, innumeracy produced in the generations of students proceeding from my own is systematically determined by people who control political economy of a population. That is to say, innumeracy begins with public and "private" educators who do not exercise analytical principles in pedagogy. Instead they train their pupils in keyboard codes which symbolize unstated assumptions. Proficiency with keyboard codes is what standardized examinations measures. Consequently, many students, regardless of "scientific" interest in a particular vocation, are trained to reproduce instantiated, or dogmatic, ethical conclusions. They emerge from degree programs without experience with or skepticism toward the subject in hand which they purport to assay.

death of "p-value"

All this before one even attempts to verify THE central limit theorem--on which every westworld decision relies--with actual enumeration by subjects empaneled and inferences extrapolated from a sample; all this before one validates methodology ascribed to big data set compiled by 3 < x > 65* co-authors transforming "qualitative" responses from sundry data-collection devices--motives, mes rhea, or, shall we say, "psychometric data", to quantitative units relative to normal distributions of "prior art", describing wtf values in any given period. Baseline reference to people, process, or thing is not constant: Let's agree. Think about that the next time someone starts yammering about "progressive" policy benefit. When certainty no longer obtains objective precursors of recursive experimental observation, it is indeed time to evaluate standardized criteria of "the good" for every case. So much for universal law.

death of "The Bell Curve"

I could share inexplicable "statistics for psychology" curriculum, provided by my associate, that defined by or satisfice proficiency in python programming to collate rat or mice subject trial observations said to represent human physiology, of which human "cognitive" systems, but I won't. Objective "basic research" hit the nadir of plausible "applied science" while you were Googling. Res ipsa loquitor.

B. Russell and K. Popper philosophical treatises on subjectivity short: Barriers to "intelligence" and "truth" measurement are ubiquitous and artificial. For example, The World of Mathematics (1956) vol. 1-IV are not public domain material. Somewhere therein J.R. Newman is reported to caution "turnips"**.

Mathematical economics is old enough to be respectable, but not all economists respect it. It has powerful supporters and impressive testimonials, yet many capable economists deny that mathematics, except as a shorthand or expository device, can be applied to economic reasoning. There have even been rumors that mathematics is used in economics (and in other social sciences) either for the deliberate purpose of mystification or to confer dignity upon commonplaces as French was once used in diplomatic communications. .... To be sure, mathematics can be extended to any branch of knowledge, including economics, provided the concepts are so clearly defined as to permit accurate symbolic representation. That is only another way of saying that in some branches of discourse it is desirable to know what you are talking about.

--
* longest published citation I have observed

** True story. Talked today with yet another immigrant (taxi driver) who didn't know he was "Black or African American" until he arrived in the USA. What else didn't he know? Need I ask in order to qualify "intelligence."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 09:44:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Foregoing be it may, I had a satisfying consultation today with the second neurologist on my list of "expert" MS diagnosticians in Bal'more.

I've had no treatment over 21 years for MS symptoms. I have from time to time evaluated published epidemiology and proprietary pharma trial literature purporting therapeutic cost/benefit. This consultation was satisfying to me in so far as the clinician agreed with my reasoning: There are still no DATA indicating positive therapeutic treatment of disease prognosis.

That's a win.

At least the physician won't try to kill me with bogus remedies.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Jul 30th, 2019 at 10:19:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
< pick teeth, suck vigorously>
I got a fun story about an LBS elective populated with PhD candidates who didn't know how to operate either phone or email to query corp actuaries' willingness or ability to answer the question: Method of "human capital" valuation.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Jul 31st, 2019 at 02:55:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Anyone have some insight into what the EU is doing to prepare for a No Deal Brexit?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Aug 4th, 2019 at 01:07:43 AM EST
stocking up on the booze to celebrate getting rid of us probably

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 06:58:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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