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Boris' Brexit Vision

by Frank Schnittger Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 11:40:05 AM EST


The European Tribune has obtained a copy of Boris Johnson's private diary an extract from which is published below: (Some links have been added for clarity)

Ever since the EU decided to leave the British Empire it has been trying to blame the British for all the problems this is causing, particularly in Ireland, where it will result in a hard customs border right across the middle of Britain's oldest colony. Britain only reluctantly agreed to the partition of Ireland in 1922 to stop the Irish killing each other, and has been striving to reduce the significance of that border ever since; particularly through the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement where the British finally managed to get the Irish to see some sense.


The EU's insistence on pursuing its own foreign and trade policies means it can no longer retain access to Britain's global reach through a Commonwealth on which the sun never sets. This return to a "little Europe" mentality is a regrettable, but perhaps inevitable consequence of the EU no longer being able to compete on the world stage with the British masters of innovation and financial wizardry. London will become the centre of global capitalism with the EU merely an impoverished hinterland.

Ireland will return to being the backwater it always was: Good enough to provide food for the mainland when they aren't being stupid enough to starve themselves through a silly dependency on one crop. Instead of eating just spuds they should have been eating Fish&Chips like the rest of us. They think the Spanish and French and Germans will come to their aid, but hah! How did that work out for them in 1601 with Spanish support at the battle of Kinsale, and French support for the 1798 uprising? The reality is that the Irish are born losers and have once again picked the losing side.

Donald and myself will be leading a new western renaissance where we will be teaching the Chinese what's what and dominating the world with the help our regional champions in Saudi Arabia and Israel, Brazil and Australia. Meanwhile the Europeans will be busy tying themselves up in bureaucratic knots with the Common Agricultural Policy when everyone knows it's so much cheaper to produce food in cleared jungle areas of the Amazon. Mind you, I have to say it was damned clever of Margaret to lumber the EU with all those backward Eastern European states who yearn for a return to Communism. Vladimir must be laughing his head off having gotten rid of that lot!

Donald says his Presidency is just a first step towards building Trump towers in Moscow and every eastern European Capital so he can look down on them fighting each other in bureaucratic wrangling while we make hay and rake in the real money. He has even hinted that he may consider me as his successor when his gig as President is up given my American birthright and experience of running an eastern state. The Americans just love my posh accent and roly poly ways and most don't understand the difference between England and New England anyway!

But first we must teach these Europeans a few things about the British Bulldog spirit and never say die attitude towards seemingly insurmountable odds. The Battle of Britain has only just begun, and even a bit of rationing will only serve to invoke the spirit of the Blitz! The fools in Parliament have already voted for Brexit with a default exit date of 31st Oct. and all I have to do for it to happen, is do nothing. "Masterly inactivity" my mentor, Winston, called it.

They think they can stop a "no deal" Brexit, but it's written in the Treaty: "The Treaties will cease to apply" when the Article 50 period is over, and the EU can't extend it without my say so. I can see the EU Council begging me to ask for an extension, but of course I shan't. Parliament will try to oust me but will be too slow to get its act together and leave it too late to force a general election before that fateful date. And if they do, I will show that loser, Corbyn, what's what, because I am the only one with a plan, and the leadership abilities, to make no deal work, and the British people know that. As I always say "Voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3."

Brexit is all about putting facts on the ground before the plebs can do anything about it, and then Dominic will tell them it's what they always wanted. Corbyn couldn't manage his way out of a paper bag and he and the Lib Dems will split the Remain vote between them meaning our fantastic First Past The Post electoral system will annihilate them. I think I put it rather well when I said "The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." "

And as for that poor old "rather engaging geezer" Nigel Farage, he doesn't know what's hit him with me stealing the Brexit party's clothes, and now, as a one issue party, they don't have a leg to stand on. As he well knows, "My policy on cake is pro having it and pro eating it," and I have just had his cake for lunch.

People often ask me "what if all of this goes horribly wrong?" but I remind them of what I said when Michael Howard sacked me for being economical with the truth about some some trifling marital indiscretions: "My friends, as I have discovered myself, there are no disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters."

Display:


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 01:07:17 PM EST
I seem to have left everyone speechless...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 06:49:12 PM EST
I seem to have left everyone speechless...

It became all too real for the last four paragraphs, starting

"They think they can stop a "no deal" Brexit, but it's written in the Treaty:...."

by oldremainmer48 on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 06:56:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This diary should come with a warning like: "Graphic content inside. Viewer's discretion advised".
by Bernard on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 07:01:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not much to say.  Unless something very weird happens Boris will drive to Brexit on October 31. Leaving* the only remaining question: will Boris shiv the DUP for {reasons} or force a hard border in Ireland?

* Pun intentional. Patent Pending.  All Rites Preserved.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 07:06:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Serious question, what does he need the DUP for now?
by asdf on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 03:16:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To support him in case of a no-confidence motion (could well happen in September).

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 08:14:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to this BBC chart, the no confidence process would have to start right about now if it was to replace him by the end of October. And it is not even clear that the process would end up replacing him with somebody else.

by asdf on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 03:52:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
if it were to replace him
by asdf on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 03:53:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To clarify, counting backwards from October 31s by seven weeks gets you to September 12th as the deadline for a no confidence motion. But a new PM would need some time to do whatever is to be done instead of Brexit.
by asdf on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 03:57:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's a non-zero chance the EU would stop the clock on A50 withdrawal if an election was happening.

Although everyone is completely sick of the UK by now, it would make no sense to force a crash-out if it could possibly be avoided.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 05:08:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU doesn't have a legal mechanism to stop the A50 deadline if the UK doesn't ask for an extension.

I don't see who can force Boris to ask for such an extension if he doesn't want to.

by Bernard on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 06:07:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I've said here before, if the motivation is there, a legal mechanism will be found.

I strongly suspect the motivation is there.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 06:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Boris lost a confidence vote and could not win one within 14 days, he would not be in a position to continue as PM. Attempting to continue would rightly be seen as a coup. He would have to resign and be replaced by someone else that might command a majority: a coalition government, a national unity government...

Logically that would lead to a general election, but also in all likelihood to a request for an A50 extension. Which the EU (even Macron) has already said could be granted in the case of an election or a referendum.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 07:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a coalition government, a national unity government...

I should have added, above all, a caretaker government.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 08:23:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but

a.) there's not enough time to set up a coalition government before end of October, even if no a confidence vote were taken right now,
b.) which it isn't,
c.) and if BoJo lost it, which would be pretty embarrassing for the Conservative Party,
d.) and anyway, who would be able to get a majority?

Seems to me that it all hinges on whether BoJo

e.) asks the EU for another extension, and
f.) the EU grants it.

by asdf on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 08:40:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Whatever the difficulties in forming a new government for the interim period between no-confidence and new election results, if Boris is disavowed by Parliament, he will cease to be PM and will have no executive powers. His wishes from then on will be immaterial from a constitutional point of view.

In that situation, a caretaker government request for an extension until things were cleared up would be, if not certain, highly likely.

Having said that, I doubt he'll lose a no-confidence vote. Corbyn might want to try one as soon as Parliament reconvenes, but he'll probably refrain if there isn't much hope of winning.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 07:39:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems to me the "British Constitution" is somewhat murky on this point.

If Boris loses a Vote of Confidence (VOC) he (or someone else) has two weeks to (re)gain that confidence. Does he remain PM during this period? Is there such a concept as a caretaker govt. in the constitution? Can the UK be, effectively, without a government for some weeks? Does he move out of No. 10?

The key point being that if the British Government - any or no government - does nothing, a no deal Brexit will happen on 31st. and there is nothing anybody can do to stop it.

If no new governing majority is formed within 2 weeks, under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 "he" (or Parliament?) must call a general election. But as shown elsewhere, that doesn't have to happen until after Oct 31st. - although the rules for determining when an election must be held also seem murky. In 2017 the general election didn't happen until 7 weeks after it was called "for technical reasons" - the normal period is c. 25 days?

If Boris loses a VOC, the Queen would "take soundings" to see if anyone else can command the confidence of the house. Assuming Corbyn can't command a majority but is unwilling to stand aside for (say) a moderate Tory (do they still exist?) to form a Government, the UK is effectively without a government until such time as the General Election happens.

Of course Boris can call a general election before he loses a VOC with Corbyn's support to create a two thirds majority in the HOC - as happened in 2017. Boris then remains PM for the duration of the campaign. Presumably Corbyn would agree only if the GE is called for before 31st. Oct.

The fact that the UK doesn't have a written constitution means that there is regular talk of a "constitutional crisis" in the UK - something which simply doesn't happen in more advanced democracies with a written constitution - where the Supreme Court decides on issues of interpretation and that is the end of the matter (unless, as in the USA, the Supreme Court decides to radically re-interpret what the founders "intended".


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 10:57:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If Boris loses a Vote of Confidence (VOC) he (or someone else) has two weeks to (re)gain that confidence. Does he remain PM during this period? Is there such a concept as a caretaker govt. in the constitution? Can the UK be, effectively, without a government for some weeks? Does he move out of No. 10?

Yes, he remains PM until it is demonstrated he cannot form a majority (with a time limit of two weeks). If he then resigns he moves out of N° 10, of course. If he does not, (and attempts to hang on to power), we have a first-class constitutional crisis going.

Is there a concept such as "caretaker govt" in any country's constitution? It's more an expression for a cobbled-together compromise government to deal with ongoing business.

A totally hung Parliament, from which no possible compromise government can get the support of a majority, is of course possible. Given the circumstances in which there will be a default crash-out on Oct 31 and the national and international importance of same, there would be a powerful incentive for MPs to support an anti-no-deal government under a moderate figurehead PM, or go down in history as utterly irresponsible.  

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 11:57:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect if Corbyn were to make way for someone like Keir Starmer to form a temp caretaker government he could get a majority in the HOC to seek a delay in A50 (or even withdraw a.50 notification?!?) and call a general election. But its all now down to Bojo and Corbyn as to whether they are prepared to set personal ambition aside...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 12:15:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I don't think Boris will lose a VOC, the discussion above is theoretical. However, there will pretty soon be an election, and then it will be Boris vs Jeremy.

The question is will Boris want an election before Oct 31, or after?

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 12:24:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Role of the opposition leader in a vote of no-confidence in accordance with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.

    "It is understood the Government only has to give time to
    motions tabled in the name of the Leader of the Opposition."

Brexit news latest: Opposition parties table vote of no confidence in Government | Evening Standard - Dec. 19, 2018 |

Caretaker Government - 28 March 1979

    Mr James Callaghan:  Mr Speaker, now that the House has declared itself, we shall take our case to the country. Tomorrow I shall propose to Her Majesty that Parliament be dissolved as soon as essential business can be cleared up, and then Ishall announce as soon as may be - and that will be as soon as possible - the date of Dissolution, the date of the election and the date of meeting of the new Parliament.

    Mrs Margaret Thatcher:  As the Government no longer have authority to carry on business without the agreement of the Opposition, I make it quite clear that we shall facilitate any business which requires the agreement of the Opposition so that the Dissolution can take place at the very earliest opportunity and the uncertainty ended.


Dissolution of Parliament

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 06:49:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent reference, clears a lot of things up. The disavowed PM may request dissolution and go to the country. Thatcher seems to suggest a sort of gentleperson's agreement on the conduct of necessary business until the election indicates (hopefully) a new majority.

Following that precedent, Boris could remain PM but with an agreement with the Opposition aka Corbyn. Very hard to see how that agreement could not rule out a no-deal Brexit.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 08:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ongoing development:

Jeremy Corbyn has called on the UK's most senior civil servant to intervene to stop Boris Johnson forcing a no-deal Brexit in the middle of an election campaign, amid rising signs the country is heading for the polls again this autumn.

The Labour leader wrote to Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, accusing the prime minister of plotting an "unprecedented, unconstitutional and anti-democratic abuse of power", after it emerged No 10 would be prepared to delay an election until immediately after 31 October if Johnson loses a no confidence vote among MPs.

In his letter, Corbyn demanded urgent clarification of the rules around purdah, which are meant to prevent the government taking major policy decisions during an election campaign.

He asked Sedwill to confirm that if the UK is due to leave the EU without a deal during an election campaign, then the government must seek an extension to article 50 and allow an incoming administration to take a decision about Brexit on the basis of the result.

Lexical item:

purdah (countable and uncountable, plural purdahs)

    (chiefly South Asia) A curtain, especially as used to conceal and divide women from men and strangers in some Hindu or Muslim traditions. [from 17th c.] quotations ▼
    (rare, obsolete) A striped cotton cloth which is used to make curtains. [19th c.]
    The state or system of social gender seclusion in some Muslim or Hindu communities. [from 19th c.]
    A long veil, or other all-enveloping clothing, worn by women in some Muslim societies. [from 20th c.]
    (figuratively) Secrecy, isolation. [from 20th c.]
    (Britain) The period immediately before an election or referendum during which restrictions are in force on the activity of civil servants.



Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 05:25:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris will lose out or gets a free ride into a no-deal Tory-Brexit in the first week of September. The discussion of the "Occupier of Downing Street #10" and the developing debate was put in a new diary yesterday ...

Summer Recess Debate - Latter Days of Boris

I don't see Jeremy Corbyn leading the House of Commons out of its dilemma. The offer by Corbyn amounted to a choice between Boris or him ... that will NOT work out well. A Labour strategy that has failed for months and like the Australian election this year, Labour loses out!

    Speculation intensified that Johnson was preparing for a snap poll after it emerged he had brought in Isaac Levido, the righthand man of the Australian election guru Lynton Crosby, to a new campaigning role at Conservative party headquarters.

Foreign Policy: Boris Ally Lynton Crosby and CTF

Thus ... after the defeat of Remain, Hillary Clinton, Bill Shorten will Jeremy Corbyn be next!

The winning strategy by Conservaties, Trump, et al. ... staying on message. How brutal it may be in content!

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 07:02:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not just staying on message, it's rejecting any message that is not simplistic, demagogic, duplicitous... and, (T)trump card, more or less explicitly xenophobic.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 07:13:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Constitutional experts weigh in on the question:

"Short answer: the Queen could dismiss Boris Johnson if he lost a vote of no confidence and refused to resign," said Robert Hazell, professor of government and constitution at University College London.

"But she would only do so if the House of Commons indicated clearly who should be appointed as prime minister in his place."

Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 there is 14-day window after a vote of no confidence in which to find an alternative government capable of securing the confidence of the Commons. Any election would be held 25 working days after the dissolution of parliament.



Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Aug 7th, 2019 at 06:54:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This evening I briefly listened to a Cambridge professor on the same subject.

Constitutional crisis for the Queen? PM appointed by the Queen on the condition the candidate has a majority support in the Commons.

After summer recess, need the no-confidence vote to start the 14 day period. Boris Johnson could set the election date after the 31st of October ... no-deal Brexit would be inevitable. In case another majority government can be formed, a new PM would be appointed by the Queen. This requires for him to set a date for the election. He could choose a date beyond the 25 working days, but yet before the 31st of October. To call an earlier election, he needs at least 66% of MPs to agree to it.

I think that's how I understood what he was telling the BBC viewers.

Could there be an early general election?


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Wed Aug 7th, 2019 at 09:35:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
New rebel bid to halt no-deal Brexit amid fury at PM's enforcer

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Wed Aug 7th, 2019 at 10:00:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What if the Queen dies (she is 93, after all). Does Charles immediately get the power to fire Johnson, or is there some delay?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 07:52:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He is King immediately

"The Queen is dead. Long live the King"

However, it's extremely unlikely he'd do anything to rock the boat immediately. I think he's a more overt religionist that Liz and so will babble and dabble in faith

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 06:01:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What a wonderful constitutional crisis the UK would have!

#dedQueen

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 08:50:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Problem is that while the UK is busy having its constitutional crisis, Article 50 will already have taken effect.
by asdf on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 03:50:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there a concept such as "caretaker govt" in any country's constitution?

Most constitutions I am aware of are pretty explicit as to what happens if a PM loses a VOC or a general election. Usually this entails the outgoing PM staying on in a caretaker capacity until such time as a replacement is elected. The theory being you need at least a caretaker government in place to handle any day-to-day issues or emergencies which may arise. Of course lacking a parliamentary or popular mandate, a "caretaker government" can't undertake any major new initiatives in its own right.

Some countries - e.g. Belgium - take this to extremes and it can be many months before a successor is elected which can create quite a hiatus in the process of government. In Ireland last time around, no party got more than 25% of the vote and 30% of the seats which eventually resulted in a "confidence and supply" arrangement between the two major parties and a very small minority government.

Added to this Fine Gael changed leader half way through the parliamentary term which means Leo Varadker is the leader of a very small minority government without a personal popular mandate. It hasn't damaged his legitimacy in the slightest, but severely circumscribed his freedom of action. Without Brexit, and if the economy hadn't been growing strongly, the opposition would have kicked him out as soon as the confidence & supply agreement ended.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Aug 4th, 2019 at 04:10:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the US there is a community of people who want to "make government so small you can drown it in a bathtub." Not a large one, but the idea is out there.

So in our case of a hung congress, there is a constituency for a "no government at all" situation. In fact, we are operating that way right now, sort of, with an obstinate democratic majority in the house and an obstinate republican majority in the senate (and an obstinate president).

But I think our rules are clear enough to prevent the case of not having an executive branch at all.

by asdf on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 04:20:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank:
The key point being that if the British Government - any or no government - does nothing, a no deal Brexit will happen on 31st. and there is nothing anybody can do to stop it.

My (key) point exactly.

To avert a no-deal Brexit in less than 3 months, something needs to happen. In the UK. We're in deep trouble.

by Bernard on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 06:07:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Until the UK parliament groks they don't have legislative jurisdiction over the EU No Deal is a certainty.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Aug 4th, 2019 at 01:04:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What has been agreed?

...

  • The extension is flexible: dubbed a "flextension", it means the UK could leave the EU earlier than October 31 if the exit deal is ratified.

  • EU leaders have reiterated that the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement on the terms of the UK's exit cannot be reopened; nor can the extension be used to start negotiations on future relations.

  • However, the non-binding Political Declaration covering future ties may be reconsidered "if the position of the United Kingdom were to evolve".

Term "flextension" at EU Malta meeting - April 2019

Flextension failed in its purpose to pressure UK parliament to accept the offer on the table ...

Europeans likely to grudgingly agree to delay Brexit

Merkel and Macron don't see eye-to-eye ... interests don't line up as both wrestle for the powerposition  in the EU.

Today Mark Rutte and Jeroen Dijsselbloem were on the losing side (Nordic, Germany/Merkel). Italy joined the Mediterranean countries and the Visegrad group.

Untapped potential: How new alliances can strengthen the EU | ECFR |

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 09:30:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Shall I post Tusk's "flextension" offer again?
yanno, to memorialize the clusterfuck ERA proceeding from Council accommodations forthcoming.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 08:46:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I read the chart correctly, the 7 weeks only kicks in after the second of two no confidence motions is passed - 2 weeks after the first - so the first no confidence vote would have to be passed end August when Parliament isn't meeting. So the bottom line is there is no way to force a general election before Oct 31st., and it would probably take most of September for anti-Boris forces to get their act together in any case.

Realistically, a vote of no confidence would have had to be passed before Parliament was prorogued before the summer, and that didn't happen because new PMs are traditionally accorded a honeymoon period.  Of course in any normal democracy, a newly appointed party leader would have to win a vote of confidence in the HOC BEFORE being appointed PM, but then the UK is far from being a normal democracy. I refer you to my letter to the editor published on that subject.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 09:15:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can't the Queen just dismiss him? Or does that only apply to Australia?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 04:08:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not if she wants to keep her head. The monarch has no role in UK politics beyond rubberstamping whatever parliament gives her. Any solution has to come from elected MPs.
by IdiotSavant on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 11:09:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In a constitutional crisis, the Palace would undoubtedly defend its opinion in quiet corridors-of-power discussions.

Boris has just been called to form a government because the Queen was advised that he commanded a majority. If that were rapidly shown to be false, the Palace would want him out and another person named in his place. In other words, the Palace would have an at least advisory influence on the crisis that would be created if Boris attempted to hang on.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 07:54:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would bet that the Queen could get a majority in both the public and in parliament a long time before either of the two current party leaders. All she would have to do is take a reasonable centrist approach. The flag-wavers could be relied on supporting anything she proposed.

Probably there are solicitors studying up on their Henry VIII procedures right now.

by asdf on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 04:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
UK yella sheet flow charts, published 2015 to present, are notoriously inaccurate representations of political systems, processes, and products.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 04:47:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't recognize his haircut ... still don't BTW :-)

The seven faces of Donald Trump - a psychologist's view

An expression of disgust
- close enough?

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 09:42:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 10:12:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't seem to get past the title - too much oxymoron.
by Bjinse on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 08:50:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Poe's Law.  We can no longer tell satire from reality.
by rifek on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 06:10:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps the Dutch can offer an escape ...

The Royal Navy's Darkest Day: Medway 1667

The Williamite Wars

1688 - The Glorious Revolution

A reminder ... yearly Orange Marches!

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Thu Aug 1st, 2019 at 07:32:05 PM EST
Jane Dodds beats outgoing Tory member Chris Davies, and says her first act will be to tell prime minister to rule out no-deal Brex.

What happened to Labour?

Lib Dems win Brecon and Radnorshire byelection, cutting Johnson Commons majority to one  

Brecon and Radnorshire: Share of the vote by party 2005-2017

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 07:59:19 AM EST
It was never a Labour constituency, but pretty obviously Labour fed the LibDems. And Plaid and Greens who abstained may well have made the difference.

As for the Tories, BP hurt them. Boris has work to do.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 08:22:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Adding: if I were Boris, I wouldn't be dismayed by this result.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 08:57:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I were Boris ...

What an awful remark to write down ...

Just like Bjinse days, it was challenging to read beyond Frank's title of the Diary. 🤢

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 09:54:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tories down TO one.

It now only takes one conservative MP to vote for a no confidence motion...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 09:30:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think this result illustrates my suggestion that the only way for the opposition to defeat Boris is via an electoral past whereby the lower placed parties in a particular constituency defer to the highest placed opposition party and run only one candidate against the Conservatives. The Conservatives would have won this seat had the Greens and Plaid Cymru not stood aside.

I know there are large policy and ideological differences between the opposition parties but the name of the game in a Parliamentary democracy is to Win seats, and to gain influence by having more of them. The biggest difficulty will not be policy differences, but personality ones with some locally selected candidates being unprepared to stand aside for a rival opposition candidate.

The other major difficulty will be to persuade Lib Dem voters to vote for a Corbyn led candidate but they are desperate enough to stop Brexit to do so. This result also shows Labour voters prepared to support a better placed Lib Dem candidate even when there is a Labour candidate in the field. Labour will suffer many more humiliations like this unless it does defer to better placed candidates.

For Boris, this is actually not so bad a result, with the Brexit party well beaten and the Tory vote down less than the Labour vote despite having a wretched candidate. The combined Tory/Brexit party vote is actually up, which is a cautionary tale should they ever form an electoral pact. However at the moment it is difficult to see on what basis they could do so as the Brexit party has no general election track record and therefore would have to fail to contest the general election at all, basically committing political suicide.

As Brexit is basically all down to Farage's work over the years, they are highly unlikely to do so. So it is down to Corbyn's leadership abilities and willingness to put country over narrow party self interest. Show a little humility now, agreeing an electoral pact and conceding some constituencies they are highly unlikely to win anyway, and he could be the next PM. But will he?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 09:52:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The obstacle to the "electoral pact" idea is, of course, the Labour Party. Its very existence, and its historical claim to represent all progressives. This is consubstatial with the wretched one-round uninominal  constituency system, otherwise known as First Past the Post.

Simply put, Labour can not give an inch to such talk. Not a single Labour candidate will be stood down.

This is very unfortunate, obviously, in the present circumstance. All the more so because informal arrangements will not work : LibDem, Green or Plaid Cymru voters may well vote tactically, even if their parties stood candidates; the Labour base is much less likely to do so.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 10:09:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I dunno, at a General Election there really isn't a lot of crossover

Guardian - Owen Jones - Labour shouldn't worry so much about the Lib Dems, they hurt the Tories more

No prime minister has lost a seat as swiftly as Boris Johnson in over a century. In 2017, the Tories won nearly half the vote in Brecon and Radnorshire and secured an 8,000 majority over the Liberal Democrats. To lose just two years later is very bad indeed. Labour slumped badly, leaving the party with a derisory vote share, but this is a seat the party hasn't won since 1974, and in which it came third even in the 1997 landslide.

In any case, whether Labour is polling well or badly nationally, it often performs poorly in byelections which are straight fights between the Lib Dems and Tories. In 2000 - when Tony Blair was enjoying a seemingly never-ending honeymoon - Labour's vote plummeted by 15 points in the Romsey byelection because of tactical voting which enabled the Lib Dems to wrest the seat from the Tories. It feels a bit unseemly to watch Lib Dems - who appealed for the votes of Labour supporters to stop the Tories - now crowing about Labour's collapsed support.

For those who desire a Labour-led government, the result again reopens the debate about the best strategy to deal with the Lib Dems.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 04:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lib Dems scotch idea of Corbyn-led caretaker government | Financial Times
Liberal Democrats have scotched the idea of installing Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street to avoid a no-deal Brexit, thereby thwarting the Labour party leadership's hopes of forming a caretaker government this autumn.

Boris Johnson is expected to face a no-confidence vote in his government soon after the UK parliament returns from its summer recess early in September. If the Conservatives fail to maintain the confidence of MPs, Labour has said it will attempt to form an alternative government. But without support from the 13 Lib Dem MPs, it will be unable to form a majority.

"I can't conceive of any circumstances under which we would put Jeremy Corbyn into No. 10," said one senior Lib Dem MP. "He's not only dangerous for our national security but for our economic security too."

So the only popular policy the LibDems have is opposing Brexit, and they are much too craven to just propose revoke, but they prefer no-deal to having Corbyn as PM?

by generic on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 01:47:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In short:
by generic on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 02:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
so true. Never trust the libDems, they will always let you down.

They're perfectly fine with a rapacious capitalism that creates poverty, illness and homelessness, but they just want to put a plaster on the worst of the sores to assuage their guilt. Gutless wankers

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 06:12:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Like all centrists, they rely on someone else to do the heavy lifting of moving the Overton window, and then they adjust accordingly...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 09:16:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I think I've said before (approximately, and about Macron), all you have to do to call yourself "centrist" is find someone to the right of you.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 05:44:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently the LibDems are even more craven than the Tory party members (no mean feat): according to this poll last June, they were willing to push Brexit at any cost, even if it breaks the UK, but they did stop at the perspective of Prime Minister Corbyn.
by Bernard on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 06:07:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That poll was of Conservative party members?!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 09:14:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yup, that's what YouGov says. You even commented about it
by Bernard on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 06:58:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 12:28:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Caroline Lucas calls for emergency female cabinet to block no-deal Brexit | Politics | The Guardian
The Green MP, Caroline Lucas, has thrown down the gauntlet to 10 high-profile female politicians over blocking a no-deal Brexit, proposing a cabinet of national unity including Labour's Emily Thornberry, the Liberal Democrat leader, Jo Swinson, and the former Conservative cabinet minister Justine Greening to seek legislation for a fresh referendum.

The final MP who has been approached is Yvette Cooper, one of the leading Labour figures coordinating efforts to stop no deal, but the only one of the addressees who has not explicitly endorsed a second referendum herself.


"Why women? Because I believe women have shown they can bring a different perspective to crises, are able to reach out to those they disagree with and cooperate to find solutions," she wrote.


I hear Theresa May has a lot of free time now.
by generic on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 06:38:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How can it be national unity without Ann Widdecombe?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 06:57:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ann would first have to unify her mouth with a functioning brain...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 09:37:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At some point you have to make allowances, otherwise they would have to invite Dick Braine too.
by generic on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 12:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
mainly macro: The Remainers urging people to vote for a No Deal Brexit

The key point is that the Tories will vote against any kind of soft Brexit. The only MPs who might vote for a soft Brexit are the minority of Labour MPs that want it and maybe a few Tory MPs that don't want No Deal and are prepared to defy their leader. Even if it went to a referendum, the combination of No Deal Brexiters and Remainers will easily triumph over a soft Brexit. Under a Labour government Brexit is dead, whatever Labour's leader might think.

by generic on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 11:05:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One scenario I have been playing around with is the possibility that Sinn Fein might end their historic abstentionist policy and take their seats if only for a confidence vote. Their 7 MPs would effectively negate the DUP influence and destroy Boris' majority.

Of course the UK media would have a field day talking about Corbyn aligning himself with the IRA, but presumably only diehard Tory/Brexit Party supporters would take that anyway seriously. It was Sinn Fein who drove the peace process that led to the Good Friday Agreement, not the DUP, who opposed it.

Sinn Fein has come under a lot of pressure in Ireland since the death of Martin McGuinness and the retirement of Gerry Adams and did badly in the recent local and European elections, North and south. The main reason is, I think, their failure to do any of the heavy lifting required to oppose Brexit - leaving it all to Varadker and Coveney - and leaving the DUP, with c. 30% support, free to represent themselves as representing N. Ireland.

It would be a hugely historic move for them, though not without precedent. Fianna Fail abandoned abstentionism in the Republic in 1927 with their leader, De Valera, declaring required the oath of allegiance to be nothing but an empty formula. To some extent, abandoning abstentionism would erode their main point of difference with other parties, but at the same time it would put further distance between them and their historic support for the IRA.

There is a school of thought within Sinn Fein that allowing Brexit to happen - as hard as possible - would hasten the creation of a united Ireland by making N. Ireland unviable, but that would not be a widely held view in the south in particular. They risk marginalising themselves in the south if they don't oppose Brexit more effectively, and soon.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 10:12:19 AM EST
Except that absentionism has become a guiding principle of Sinn Fein.  And like any other corporate policy it doesn't have to make sense to be rigorously enforced.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Aug 2nd, 2019 at 03:54:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[As Frank is probably aware], Fintan O'Toole has a view on how Sinn Fein might stop Brexit, rather than by taking up its seats, by resigning its NI seats and forcing byelections where pro EU parties / candidates are allowed to stand in their stead, take their seats and ensure a pro-EU majority in UK parliament.

O'Toole discussed this on BBC 'Today' this morning [49m46Sec]. The Sinn Fein member for South Down was dismissive, to say the least!.

by oldremainmer48 on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 10:59:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not going to happen. If Sinn Fein were going to do it, they would have done it by now.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 11:33:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't read Fintan's article until afterwards, and it seems to me to be more unlikely than some of the scenarios I have been painting...  In any case, I don't think there is time for bye-elections now.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 3rd, 2019 at 08:26:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I read that and wondered what Fintan was playing at.  That's only slightly less fantastical than herds of unicorns pissing rainbows across the border as a technological fix.
by rifek on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 09:55:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Irish times letter writers are in no doubt that O'Tooles proposal is bonkers and not going to happen. Not up to his usual standard, although it does add some public pressure on Sinn Fein to review their abstentionist policy or else share the blame for Brexit happening against the wishes of the majority in  N. Ireland.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 09:21:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the MPs really have the courage they can possibly bypass the zombie government by appointing someone to deliver a revoke notice to the EU in the name of the Crown. That would be under a scenario that grows likelier by the day: No-deal or Revoke/Remain.

The parties are aligning along those lines accordingly to survive. The Tories under Johnson faster than Labour - I think their guy is just slow.

Regardless of whether criticisms of Corbyn's handling of Labour are unfair or not, this age is not forgiving to political losers. So the point is to do everything necessary to win. Johnson is angling to win a post-Crash-Brexit majority and start his hard-right colonization project - according to models a surprisingly likely prospect. Presumably Corbyn is gunning for his own post-Crash majority. But how? Remain alliance, shift to center? Wait until Johnson has turned everyone miserable? That'd defeat the whole purpose of the party and as mentioned, losers don't really have a say. I don't like to say this: maybe he has grown too comfortable with the role of the principled loser over the decades?

btw I can't see the first whatsapp picture whatever it is.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Sun Aug 4th, 2019 at 02:55:35 PM EST
I think sending a notice while the Tories still have a nominal majority is unconvincing. There should at least be a lost VONC on the table before some other attempt at a government tries to take over.

Also, asking for a delay while a GE is held is more convincing than outright Revoke. Of course Revoke is the sensible option. But the correct forms need to be observed, and that means going through a PV before getting to Revoke.

Corbyn's position is complicated. Coming out as an outright Remain party would be electoral suicide - not by much, but certainly by enough to guarantee that the next election wouldn't just be lost, but would be lost by a large enough margin to make Labour irrelevant.

Of course this is exactly what Corbyn's many opponents want. Brexit is a perfect wedge issue for them, and the LibDems are happy to play their usual role of keeping Labour out of power while making promises about being The Remain Party, which are rather meaningless in practice.

Corbyn isn't helped by not being a typical career politician alpha bullshitter. He's more interested in policy than point scoring - which is very laudable, but it isn't what British voters are used to from a leader.

The bottom line is that whatever happens has to at least appear legitimate. The Right aren't particularly troubled by legitimacy, because they can always point to the original referendum result. But Remain are constrained by it, so any move towards Remain has to follow those correct forms.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Aug 4th, 2019 at 05:38:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To only way I can see revoke becoming an option without a referendum is if (i) a party wins a GE on an explicitly Remain/revoke platform, or (ii) an election is in the offing and the EU Council refuse a further extension. Then revoke would be the only way to keep all options open for the incoming government.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Aug 4th, 2019 at 05:45:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting reports in this Guardian article, all of it worth a look:

Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating the withdrawal agreement and a no-deal Brexit is his "central scenario", EU diplomats have been briefed following a meeting between the prime minister's chief envoy and officials in Brussels.

David Frost, who replaced Olly Robbins as the government's chief Europe adviser, was said to have instead sought to discuss how negotiations could be reset after the UK crashes out on 31 October, during his recent talks with senior EU figures.

(...)

Frost was said to have told the officials that a technological solution to the Irish border was the UK's preferred option before admitting that "it would not be ready now for Brexit".

"Even if EU gave up the backstop there is no alternative," a diplomat concluded of the discussion.

(...)

EU officials were left with the impression that the British government would seek to avoid any alignment with Brussels that would prevent the UK from pursuing a policy of deregulation.

A diplomatic source said: "This is a downgrade of the offer in EU mandate, which is for a comprehensive agreement that eliminates tariffs accompanied by level playing field arrangements.

"A conventional free trade agreement reduces tariffs and does not eradicate them. Not having a level playing field or alignment will not fly."

So right. Britannia throws off her chains and... doesn't get a trade agreement with the EU, gets nothing better than currently with ROW, and... gets enchained again by being eaten up by USA.

Go Boris.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 04:15:55 PM EST
I had just read the article ... clear and ludicrous ... first time the Boris Club can be believed.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 04:39:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't get the logic of trying to negotiate a trade deal AFTER Brexit, when any deal negotiated requires unanimity and can be held up by the regional parliament of Wallonia. Trade deals typically take 7 years to negotiate and some are never ratified. So what does Boris think is going to happen in the meantime? WTO rules? Any Brexit deal only requires a weighted majority of the Council and is therefore much easier to achieve.

Has anyone here ever heard the EU side agree that WTO rules will then apply? I haven't - all that talk has come from Brexiteers. Even dividing up EU WTO quotas requires an agreement, and to the best of my knowledge no division of quotas has been agreed by the WTO - all of whose members have to agree. Again -no guarantee this will ever happen.

So we could be left with a scenario where the UK simply has no WTO trading quotas, and full tariffs apply to all exports. Added to this, without a deal there is no mutual recognition of regulatory authorities. So even if there is no mass deregulation in the UK, existing exports will have to be checked and tested to ensure they comply. Simply unmanageable with the volume of exports involved.

So Boris seems to be betting the EU will allow a de facto free trade situation to arise without any guarantees of regulatory alignment or compliance. I can't see how the EU can allow this. So half of all UK exports will be stuck in UK ports awaiting clearance. Can't see this situation being sustainable either.

So a megaphone war will break out and both sides will did in. Does Boris really believe "they need us more than we need them"? I can see all UK/EU trade, and some travel grinding to a halt as UK airlines won't have landing rights within the UK. Virtually a war situation. Does Boris think Trump will put a gun to the EU's head?  Can't see that de-escalating the situation either.

There simply is no rational explanation for this strategy beyond a belief the EU will simply lie down and die. Boris has made life so much easier for Varadker and EU leaders - no difficult trade-offs or compromises necessary. Simply hunker down until a different UK government is formed. At that point the UK will be begging for something like the now Hated Withdrawal Agreement.

Presumably Boris thinks he can win a general election on a no deal basis. From an EU point of view it doesn't matter if he does, especially if it is held after Oct. 31st. No deal is no deal. The UK electorate possibly think no deal simply means a return to the status quo ante 1973. But it doesn't. The world is a much more integrated and regulated place now. There was no Blue skies or WTO then. Trade volumes were much lower and there was no transnational JIT production processes.

So the bottom line is utter chaos unless the EU undermines its own legal order, and does so unanimously. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 05:25:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does Boris really believe "they need us more than we need them"?

Apparently so.

There simply is no rational explanation for this strategy beyond a belief the EU will simply lie down and die.

Well, yes.
A high stakes game of chicken, just like that famous cliff jumping car scene in Rebel Without a Cause.

by Bernard on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 06:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The more apt analogy is "human shield", or hostage scenario.

Tory gov is not alone in the vehicle as it were and indifference to the well being of others has been expressed by observers to no avail. Why they still expect a measure of sympathy for adverse consequences to temper Tory gov "strategy" is a bit of mystery to me.

Then again, I'm not steeped in christian dogma.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:43:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...Boris seems to be betting the EU will allow a de facto free trade situation to arise without any guarantees of regulatory alignment or compliance.

It's the standard UK elite's psychosis.  They simply cannot grasp The Other is self-actualized, capable of acting in their own self-interest.  The EU made the mistake of validating this dysfunction by continually backing down from the deadlines.  So now the silly sods really do think the EU will allow the UK to have all the rights and privileges of EU membership without the duties, costs, and responsibilities.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 06:54:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian - Larry Elliot - Boris Johnson takes note of Trump's game theory to keep EU guessing on Brexit

Two cars are hurtling towards each other down a narrow country lane. Both have the option to pull over but neither driver wants to give way first. What happens next? This is the sort of scenario that lies at the heart of game theory, the use of models to show how rational decision-makers interact with each other. Game theory is big in economics and, in the current circumstances, that's hardly surprising because two key political issues lend themselves to game theory analysis.
[....]
Boris Johnson has arrived in Downing Street and has reshaped the cabinet so that it is run by Brexit true believers rather than those who backed remain in the referendum. Preparations for a no-deal departure have been ramped up in order to show the rest of the EU that the government means what it says. Johnson has made it clear that he is in no hurry to start negotiations and, by spraying money, is creating the impression that he would be willing to call a general election in order to get a mandate for his tougher Brexit approach. From a game theory perspective, all this makes complete sense. Like Trump with Xi, the prime minister is trying to keep the EU guessing.

What is potentially helpful to the new prime minister is that the eurozone economy is in worse shape than it was a year ago. Germany, in particular, is struggling. Its manufacturing exports have been hit by the global slowdown and Berlin fears it will be targeted by Trump when he launches the second front in the trade war. Angela Merkel does not want a no-deal Brexit.
[....]
Leo Varadkar is worried about the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the Irish economy. What should also concern the taoiseach is whether the EU would be prepared to sell Ireland out in order to avoid one.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 07:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given the unstated assumption of computational outcomes is always mutual acceptance of game rules by 2 or more players, Trump's "strategy" ought to be immediately obvious. Indeed every minute since inauguration day one complaint (not "HE'S A RACIST") from all corners of the ahh peer group.

IOW, the little known secret to adversarial victory,
memorialized centuries ago in The Art of War (bibble);
restated in common law doctrine ("duty to retreat");
suggested by Herbert Simone in Sciences of the Artificial ("prisoner's dilemma"): don't play;
and confirmed by William H. Press and Freeman Dyson discuss "Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma contains strategies that dominate any evolutionary opponent", or "Come up with a new theory of mind."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Same complaint about Tories, basically.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:28:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two cars are hurtling towards each other down a narrow country lane.

A more precise analogy would involve a Mini Cooper facing a 40-ton Saab-Scania truck.

by Bernard on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 07:28:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the driver of the Mini Cooper is convinced that if he just puts the pedal to the metal the 40-ton Saab-Scania truck will turn, because otherwise that driver is going to get such a mess to clean up.
by fjallstrom on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 01:16:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is the Saab-Scania truck  has nowhere to turn to, because he hurtling down a narrow road...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 01:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Trump's game theory"

Right.

by asdf on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 04:01:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump's game theory
Presidents  Trump  and  Xiare  approaching  a  game  theory  Nash  construct.Both,  predecessors included,  have  colluded  into  creating  a  race  towards  dominance  of  global  trade,  finance  and technology. China by, primarily,  enhancing the consumption share of US GDP and America by feeding  Chinese  insatiable  hunger  for  technology.    They  created  a  dangerous  measure  of interdependence that translated into a mutually exclusive "win" situation.  The game would have continued unchallenged was it not for President Trump's sudden realization that the probability of a win-win outcome is low. He then tampered with the underlying premises of the game and a new  dynamic  emerged. How  will  the  game  evolve?  
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 04:08:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm incredulous Trump saw that we were not on track for a win-win outcome.  I'm not even convinced he saw the US in general was not winning.  As with every other "deal" he supposedly has known the art of, he saw a quick, front-end benefit to himself personally and grabbed it, everyone else be hanged.
by rifek on Mon Aug 12th, 2019 at 10:52:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is the EU stipulation from the beginning to conclusion of WA negotiation.

Tory gov has refused to agree the WA, nonetheless.

So.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:36:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't place a bet on the UK getting any agreement with the US either.  House Democrats and Republicans are going to be pissed at Boris over the GFA.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 06:39:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know about that.

Honor among thieves, etc.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 08:45:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also the US has plenty of internal problems of its own, and an election coming up next year, probably a recession, possibly a two-front war. The last thing we are going to have time to worry about is helping a small island settle a foolish trade dispute.
by asdf on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 03:52:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Donald Trump promised a great trade deal. And he has a sterling record as a reliable business partner.
by Bernard on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 07:26:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed an expert into insolvency and foreign cities linked to failed states ... not just Red Square mind you!

Frank Sater, Ilyas Khrapunov, Mukhtar Ablyazov in So-Ho Money Laundering Case
Kazakhstan's BTA Bank Files New Lawsuit Targeting Ex-Trump Associate | RFERL |

Related reading ...

All American, Spy Felix Sater Working All Sides
Russian Oil Wealth, Kremlin and Oligarchs

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 08:48:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I find it curious I cannot find a decent economic analysis of a No Deal Brexit.  The ones I can find are absurd.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Aug 5th, 2019 at 06:47:25 PM EST
Well, I'll be. I switched from FF to Chrome and the photo composite reappeared! Bizarre: I haven't been able to fully predict how default GDPR rules work for either since the back-door install. Whatevs!

Downloaded to join my portrait of The Lloyd.

I've given it the title, Trumbo.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 03:01:18 AM EST
Sinn Féin joins the Great Disruption
The third group of Great Disruptors is Sinn Féin. Their Utopia is, of course, a United Ireland. They ostensibly oppose a no-deal Brexit, and indeed Brexit itself. But beneath this opposition lies the belief that the worse Brexit is, the quicker we will have a Border poll and the more likely it is that Protestants in Northern Ireland will swim for the green lifeboat to avoid going down with the British ship. Alongside the disaster capitalism of Johnson's faction and the disaster socialism of Corbyn's, there is this disaster nationalism. It does not deny that no-deal would be awful - it welcomes this awfulness as the Great Disruption that completes the Irish national revolution.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Aug 6th, 2019 at 02:02:55 PM EST
Key passage:
Only one of these three visions of the Great Disruption has power - the hard right version... its proponents are doing what revolutionaries are supposed to do: seize power and wield it ruthlessly. Both the group around Corbyn and Sinn Féin imagine that you can shape history by just letting things fall apart and then moving in to build something new with the rubble.
Expanding on my comment above, reality doesn't care whether your ideals are right or if you put policy before power. If you don't have the stomach for ruthless realpolitik, if you can't even convince people in your own camp then, sorry, you deserve to lose.

"Eyes on the prize with a clear mind!" should be the slogan of the day but it's not happening with the urgency that is necessary. I don't think you can fault the LibDems/Greens or whatnot for splitting the Remain camp - they're just soaking up what is no longer sticking to Labour. In the back of my mind I'm still rooting for Corbyn to take charge, unite the Remain parties and fuck up the Tories. Because that's the only way to survive. Trying to straddle the divide Labour style is not working, neither politically nor practically. Attempting a split like that is just bad for your balls. And apparently also bad for your brain.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Wed Aug 7th, 2019 at 07:17:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A message from the US  Public Broadcasting Service:

Happy Black History Y5 D220

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 02:12:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"This video contains content from PBS, who has blocked it in your country on copyright grounds"

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 03:38:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I and my device are resident in the USA.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 04:03:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is what Google is for

I don't have time to watch a 55 minute clip.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 04:07:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How about a four minute music video?

Keep your Eyes on the Prize

by asdf on Fri Aug 9th, 2019 at 12:41:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Although, Corbyn's so-called disaster socialism appears to consist of little more than a return to the policies of the 1960s, wen the UK fed, clothed, educated and housed the poor, provided excellent and timely health care for the sick.

I'm sure such policies represent disasters for the bankster classes, but...fuck em.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 06:17:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's O'Toole's version of "both sides do it", although in his case there's three sides doing it...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 09:12:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a disaster for the capitalist mythos.
by rifek on Thu Aug 8th, 2019 at 09:57:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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