Boris Johnson to meet Macron, Merkel as Brexit uncertainty looms| DW |

British media reported on Saturday the Prime Minister Boris Johnson would use his trips to France and Germany this week to tell European leaders that British parliament cannot stop Brexit, and urge them to agree to restart negotiations within to avoid a no-deal exit on October 31.

The trip to meet Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Emmanuel Macron is set for Tuesday, the Guardian reported. It would be Johnson's first trip abroad since coming into power in July.

Johnson's uphill battle

The prime minister faces an uphill battle in placating his European allies, as he has made his career as anti-European. Johnson has admitted to fabricating stories about the EU during his former career as a journalist, for example that Europe was pursuing legislation to ban prawn-flavored potato chips.

He also actively supported the Leave campaign in the run-up to the 2016 Brexit referendum, famously traveling with a bus bearing the false claim that the money that would allegedly be saved by leaving the bloc could go directly into the National Health Service (NHS).  

An optimistic headline ...

Boris Johnson to head to Paris and Berlin in bid to break Brexit deadlock | The Guardian |

Boris Johnson is expected to make a diplomatic dash to meet Emmanuel Macron in Paris and Angela Merkel in Berlin early next week as he seeks to break the Brexit impasse.

The prime minister, who has yet to leave the UK to meet any of the EU's leaders since entering Downing Street, will also speak to the Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, and Donald Tusk, the European council president, by phone, the Guardian understands.

The flurry of talks come before next weekend's meeting in Biarritz of the G7, the leaders of the world's biggest economies, where diplomats expect Johnson to be given a "reality check" as he seeks to lobby the EU to ditch the Irish backstop.  

○ PM to tell EU leaders to renegotiate deal | BBC News - 10 mins ago |
○ PM to tell Merkel and Macron parliament cannot stop no-deal Brexit

'Sapere aude'

The referendum result must be respected.
We will leave the EU on 31st October. #LeaveOct31

— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) August 15, 2019

A world of difference in a vision for new UK-EU relations ...

We look forward to working constructively w/ PM @BorisJohnson when he takes office, to facilitate the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement and achieve an orderly #Brexit. We are ready also to rework the agreed Declaration on a new partnership in line with #EUCO guidelines.

— Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) July 23, 2019

No-deal Brexit preparations: the leaked Operation Yellowhammer document | The Times |

BASE SCENARIO

When the UK ceases to be a member of the European Union in October 2019, all rights and reciprocal arrangements with the EU end.

•  The UK reverts fully to "third country" status. The relationship between the UK and the European Union as a whole is unsympathetic, with many member states (under pressure from the European Commission) unwilling to engage bilaterally and implementing protections unilaterally, though some member states may be more understanding.
•  No bilateral deals have been concluded with individual member states, with the exception of the reciprocal agreement on social security co-ordination with the Republic of Ireland. EU citizens living in the UK can retain broadly all rights and status that they were entitled before the UK's exit from the EU, ...

UK Parliament Brexit preparations

2 No deal

8. If no withdrawal agreement is ratified under the terms of Article 50 before 29 March 2019 and there is no extension or revocation of the process, the UK will leave the EU without a deal at 11pm on that day and will be treated as a third country from that point onwards. This is the default scenario. ⁴ The UK's trading relationship with the remaining EU27 Member States will move from the arrangements of the Customs Union and the Single Market to that of the WTO at that moment. Other elements of the UK's current relationship with the EU will also come to an end, including security co-operation and exchanges in research and education. Such an outcome was described by Chris Heaton-Harris MP, the Parliamentary Under Secretary of State responsible for contingency planning, as "suboptimal." ⁵ The extent to which, as a third country, the UK can maintain arrangements in areas of mutual interest is unknown.

The Government's preparations for exiting without a deal

Co-ordination across Whitehall

9. The Department for Exiting the EU has overall responsibility for co-ordination of preparations for "no deal" across government. ⁶ Other government departments have also been preparing for exit and have been subjected to the scrutiny of other Select Committees of the House.

10. A key challenge to no deal planning has been a lack of direction and transparency in Whitehall. According to the Institute for Government, the "political climate has created a culture of extraordinary secrecy, which is incompatible with a task that is so dependent on co-ordination." ⁷ They noted that the flow of information across departments and public bodies had been stifled by extraordinarily high levels of security clearance and limited engagement. Secrecy had made it difficult for departments to align plans and there was a lack of clarity following the March 2018 agreement in principle on transition about what that meant for contingency planning. ⁸ Sir Amyas Morse, Comptroller and Auditor General, repeated this message, telling us that the changes in urgency for no deal planning had been disorientating for departments, ⁹ having found that the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) had paused its no deal preparations after the March agreement. ¹⁰ Sir Amyas Morse had also been aware of civil servants using NAO reports to find out what was happening with EU exit preparations across Whitehall which, he added, was not "a good state of affairs." ¹¹ He told us that the secrecy and withholding of information had all been "taken a bit too far, frankly." ¹²

11. Sir Amyas Morse believed that the arguments for not revealing information which might damage the UK's negotiating position would "decay" as the Article 50 deadline approached.

[...]

Related reading ...

○ UK faces food, fuel and drug shortages, says contested leaked document | Reuters |
○ Snatched pic gives insight into 'no deal' Brexit planning | BBC News - Sept. 7, 2018 |
○ Time for Clarity: The Views of British Business on The Path to Brexit

'Sapere aude'

After 46 days in Gibraltar Waters sparking an international incident with Iran, the Adrian Darya, formerly the Grace 1, is leaving...

What happens when US agricultural and industry lobbyists start pressing English MPs about trade treaty terms? Chlorine-washed chickens are probably the least of the worries.

The 1975 referendum on EU membership resulted in a 2:1 vote in favour of REMAIN....

... or should we say "As the World Spins?"

Unbelievable, so much similar between 1975 and today ... except the magnetic North and South pole switched polarity ... meaning the Conservatives and Margareth Thatcher voted to Remain. The Brentry negotiations were done under Edward Heath, the Labour party was opposed. Odd times we live in for decades now. 😊

'Sapere aude'

Re: Not without importance

The first and most difficult hurdle to blocking Brexit which must be overcome is that Boris must lose a vote of confidence.  Achieving this is made much easier if their is an anti-Boris candidate all the anti-no deal Brexit factions can unite around.

If it becomes a straight vote between Boris and Jeremy, Boris wins every time.

However, as you say, Constitutionally, the Leader of the Opposition is the next in line to be consulted if Boris Were to lose a vote of Confidence. If he convinces the Queen he could win a vote of confidence, she might even appoint him PM.  However she can only do so if Boris resigns as PM.

Let us suppose Boris doesn't resign, saying he will regain the confidence of the House within two weeks or call an election after Brexit day.

The only way for the House to prevent Boris doing so is to vote confidence in someone else. Jeremy may well present himself to the House as a candidate for the caretaker PM role, but if he fails to win the confidence of the house to do so, the only way to stop Brexit is for the House to vote confidence in someone else within the two weeks.

Jeremy has the most important voice in determining who this someone else might be as he is delivering the most votes to the cause. He could suggest Harriet Harmon as a non-contentious choice, on the understanding she would stand aside as soon as the result of a general election became clear, and everyone else on the anti-Boris side would have no choice but to accept.

Or he could use the opportunity to promote his favoured successor, but this rather assumes he no longer sees himself as PM for anything but a limited period.

His choice. He is in the driving seat. But he can't force the anti-Boris factions to unite around himself. The best he can do is decide who that person should be.

But we are in constitutionally unprecedented times. A lot depends on who controls the business of the house and what Speaker Bercow allows. Boris could yet bully the House out of playing a decisive role.

by Frank Schnittger

No 10 rejects demands for parliament to be recalled over Brexit | The Guardian |

Downing Street has rejected demands by MPs for a recall of parliament following the leak of damaging no-deal Brexit documents and will instead ask Michael Gove to brief the public on how to prepare over the coming weeks.

Whitehall sources said Gove, the minister in charge of no-deal planning and Boris Johnson's right-hand man in the Vote Leave campaign, will also address parliament about the UK's readiness to leave the EU without a deal.

[...]

"The House of Commons agreed the date it would rise for summer recess, as well as its return on 3 September, and this was passed by a majority of close to 200 MPs," she said.

Downing Street said the documents were out of date and had been prepared under Theresa May's government.

"In relation to business, we have been engaging widely and will continue to do so, and that's been significantly stepped up in recent weeks."

The Cabinet Office documents, marked "official sensitive" and reportedly prepared earlier this month, examined the government's contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit.

The files also said efforts to avoid the return of a hard border in Ireland were likely to prove "unsustainable" in such a scenario, with fears of "direct action" and road blockades.

A Whitehall source said the government would brief parliament and release further details about preparations for a no-deal scenario.

Ireland has been respectful of UK decision to leave EU from the start, but has always been clear that border infrastructure on Island of Ireland must be avoided. The Backstop is the insurance, designed by UK/EU/IRL, to protect the Peace Process. That's why we need it. #Brexit. (_link)

— Simon Coveney (@simoncoveney) August 18, 2019

Boris: The EU will fold ...

○ Boris Johnson 'confident' EU will back down in Brexit talks

'Sapere aude'

the only person who can call a vote of No Confidence is Corbyn. If the LibDems sit on their hands, then the motion will fail and we have no deal.

Corbyn is forcing the LibDems to back up their rhetoric. Back him or be considered responsible for no deal. there is no alternative.

If they fail to back him, the gLibs will have lost all credibility yet again. They are willing to support the tory economic atrocity of austerity fro 5 years, yet won't support Corbyn for 5 weeks.

Meanwhile, if there is no deal, the country will collapse and nobody but the Tories will be considered responsible.

Politics is about power. Corbyn as leader of the Oppoition, has little, but he is making it count.

Swinson's only power, as the leader of the 4th party in Parliament, is to either support the Government in their pursuit of no deal, or to support Labour to thwart it. It seems that, such is her abhorence of social justice, she is prepared to support no deal. I doubt that history will be kind.

keep to the Fen Causeway

🎥 A passionate plea from Deputy Chief Constable Stephen Martin to preserve peace here.

It follows a bomb attempt on PSNI officers' lives in Co Fermanagh pic.twitter.com/YDiVnuO72c

— Downtown Radio News (@newsondowntown) August 19, 2019

○ Fermanagh bomb attack 'deliberate attempt' to murder police, says PSNI | Irish Times |
○ Fermanagh bomb: PSNI plea for political progress after murder bid | BBC News |

'Sapere aude'

I have written to @eucopresident about key aspects of the UK's approach to Brexit, problems with the "backstop" & the Government's commitment to the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement whether there is a deal with the EU or not. (_link) pic.twitter.com/Sc6WjDPdkw

— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) August 19, 2019

THE LAST STAND OF BORIS

Dear Donald ...

Paraphrasing:

Goal: the backstop must go

Positioning 1-2-3

1. NI peace and prosperity
   
2. Preserving democracy
   
3. Keeping the U.K. together

1. There must be no hard border
   
2. UK will not be in a customs union
   
3. God willing we will find a solution instantly

Such a shame Boris quit his position as a journalist in Brussels peddling ... BS stories.

In today's world, a populist politician has either a short life or a long devastating reign of error.

UK media and arrogance ...

○ Boris Johnson gives EU his Brexit demands | The Times |
○ Boris Johnson says 'anti-democratic' backstop must be scrapped

Mainland EU territory ...

○ Johnson will nachverhandeln - und den Backstop aushebeln | Der Spiegel |
○ Boris Johnson confirms to EU he wants Brexit without Irish backstop | France24 |
○ UK to end EU freedom of movement rules in no-deal scenario | DW |

'Sapere aude'

EU27 citizens contributing to the UK & those still wanting to visit, in the event of a catastrophic no deal, deserve more certainty & advance information than this. Another reason why a disorderly Brexit would be reckless & shouldn't be normalised. (_link)

— Guy Verhofstadt (@guyverhofstadt) August 18, 2019

Former UK parliament adviser warns legal loophole could lead to no-deal Brexit | Politico EU |

Boris Johnson could shut down parliament after a vote of no confidence to prevent MPs blocking a no-deal Brexit, a former House of Commons clerk has warned.

Robert Rogers, now Lord Lisvane, who served as the most senior constitutional adviser to the House between 2011 and 2014, was scathing about the reported plans by Johnson to ignore a vote of no confidence and delay an election until after the Brexit date.

He said that while it would be possible to suspend the Commons through a "Sittings of the House Motion" to force a no-deal departure from the EU, the tactic would be an "open subversion" of the laws governing parliamentary terms, and "constitutionally destructive."

Downing Street has refused to rule out the prospect of Johnson ignoring a no-confidence vote aimed at stopping a no-deal Brexit.

○ Bercow will 'fight with every breath' to stop Johnson closing parliament for no deal | The Guardian |

'Sapere aude'

Nearly half of UK voters back no-deal Brexit and no PM Corbyn, poll finds

Almost half of British voters would prefer the country to leave the European Union without a Brexit deal and Labour's Jeremy Corbyn not to become prime minister, according to a YouGov poll.

When asked to choose between that scenario and one in which Corbyn becomes the country's next leader and holds a second referendum on Brexit, just over a third backed the option that could see Britain remain in the EU.

Poll is setback for Labour leader's plan to oust the government.

Jeremy Corbyn as Don Quixote

'Sapere aude'

BoJo's "bluster" has been  reduced to the size of a "blister". Perhaps a band-aid will cover the backstop so no one notices the backstop is still there and Boris has begun a 30 day period of NEGOTIATIONS. Wow Boris ... so soon the bluster of Tory-Brexit has been an ordinary blimp in the sky. Your posture fits nicely next to Trump in the sky above London as the pound shrinks.

'Blistering': Angela Merkel gives Boris Johnson 30 days to come up with alternative to Brexit backstop

German chancellor Angela Merkel has told UK prime minister Boris Johnson he has 30 days to come up with an alternative solution to replace the backstop.

Mr Johnson called her timetable "blistering", but said he was "more than happy" with her proposal to speed-up the talks.

The Conservative Party leader arrived in Berlin on Wednesday to kick-start talks to find an alternative to the Irish backstop - a contingency measure negotiated by his predecessor Theresa May to get an exit deal over the line.

[...]

Mrs Merkel, in a statement in the Chancellery, said the backstop had always been a "fallback position" and would only come into effect if no other solution could be agreed that would protect the "integrity of the single market".

In an attempt to have a backstop solution in place before the October 31 Brexit deadline, the German leader said she wanted a new arrangement agreed within 30 days.

Mr Johnson said he was "more than happy" with the timetable proposed by his German counterpart.

A Downing Street source said the Government was happy with the tone of Mrs Merkel's exchange.  

Nice comment: "Been there, done that, failed."

'Sapere aude'

'I am the Chosen One': with boasts and insults, Trump sets new benchmark for incoherence | The Guardian |

With fears of a recession stirring and public confidence in the health of the economy dropping for the first time in Trump's presidency, it was a sound message to project to a skittish nation. But that was as good as it got.

What followed might have swept away all previous Trumpian benchmarks for incoherence, self-aggrandizement, prevarication and rancor in a presidency that has seemed before to veer loosely along the rails of reason but may never have come quite so close to spectacularly jumping the tracks.

Over an ensuing half-hour rant, Trump trucked in antisemitic tropes, insulted the Danish prime minister, insisted he wasn't racist, bragged about the performance of his former Apprentice reality show, denied starting a trade war with China, praised Vladimir Putin and told reporters that he, Trump, was the "Chosen One" - all within hours of referring to himself as the "King of Israel" and tweeting in all caps: "WHERE IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE?"

Leaving aside those who were left merely gape-jawed, the performance inspired reactions from new expressions of doubt about Trump's fitness for office to evocations of "the last president I know of who compared himself to the Messiah".

(That turns out, according to Brookings Institution fellow Benjamin Wittes, to be Andrew Johnson (1865-9), whose articles of impeachment cited his "intemperate, inflammatory and scandalous harangues".)

After the news conference, the hashtag #25thAmendmentNowwas the top trending item on US Twitter, referring to a constitutional proviso by which cabinet members and the vice-president can band together to remove a president deemed unfit.

Andrew Johnson was saved by a single vote ...

Related reading ...

○ Trump quotes conspiracist likening him to 'second coming of God'
○ Netanyahu praises Petah Tikvah for 'Trump Square'
○ New Western Wall train station to be named after Trump

Thank you Mr. Prime Minister, a great honor! (_link)

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 17, 2019

More ...

○ This is why evangelicals love Trump's Israel policy
○ Israel prepares for "Jerusalem syndrome" (1999)

"Jerusalem syndrome is a group of mental phenomena involving the presence of either religiously-themed obsessive ideas, delusions or other psychosis-like experiences that are triggered by a visit to the city of Jerusalem."

Jerusalem syndrome is closely aligned with the Messiah Complex.

'Sapere aude'