Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

LQD - Germany Now Expecting No Deal Brexit

by ATinNM Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 03:37:24 PM EST

UK, EU ramp up Brexit talks as Parliament suspension backlash grows

"We cannot imagine reopening the Withdrawal Agreement," said Maas. "We assume that Brexit will happen on October 31. We will do everything to avoid a no-deal Brexit. But the British government has made it clear that if there is no agreement (on the Irish border) a no-deal Brexit will happen."


Interesting behind-the-scenes chatter:

I hear the argument more and more in continental Europe that Britain would be such a problematic member of the EU, the metaphor of cancer, or poison is used.  

and

No deal would poison relations for a generation. There would be a huge blame game. The Brits would blame it on continental Europe, continental Europe would blame it on the Brits.

As we've been saying.

And the economic fallout would be very dark, very serious indeed.

More for the UK - but see below - than the EU.  The EU has the resources to fund a bog-standard Keynesian jump-start investment program.  If Denmark can sell negative interest rate bonds then the EU could float 1% bonds and get them snapped up.  It's the political will that is lacking.


Do you think Britain would come crawling back to the EU in the event of no deal?

The idea that this is likely to happen any time soon is one I really caution against. Many of my friends believe that we would be back within a few years. This is complete nonsense. First, it's a misreading of the Brits. We are stubborn, bloody-minded, it would take a few years before we admit we made a big mistake. Secondly, the Scots would leave, Northern Ireland would be off with Ireland. We'd be back to the 16th century, the whole constitutional structure of the UK would be called into question. And then the EU would itself move on, along Franco-German lines, and therefore it would be a different kind of EU. And we would have none of the perks like the rebate, we would have to sign up to the Euro. It would be an illusion.

Display:
As I have been saying:
  1. A no deal Brexit means no deal on everything else until the key issues in the Withdrawal agreement are addressed more or less as they were in the Withdrawal Agreement.
  2. A no deal Brexit will be followed by bitter recriminations all around and a rapid policy divergence if it led, as I expect it will, to the UK lining up with the US on regulatory and other matters. It will become EU vs. US/UK
  3. The bitter recriminations could lead to a trade war especially if it resulted in a return to violence in N. Ireland and a rapid deterioration in bilateral relations elsewhere.
  4. Talk of the UK re-joining the EU is delusional, at least for a generation, and even if there were general recognition that Brexit was a mistake.
  5. The EU will try to "capture" al the business previously conducted by the UK in the EU, particularly financial services and what is left of British industry. This will compensate, in some degree, for economic damage caused by loss of EU exports to UK.
  6. There will be great dislocation in EU (and especially Irish) exports to the UK and some sort of temporary return to Intervention  may be required to prevent wholesale bankruptcies in the agricultural sector.
  7. Racist incidents against EU nationals in the UK will further embitter relations at a social and political level.
  8. There may be a mild recession in the EU - which may have happened anyway - but the UK could lose as much as 10% of its GDP and much of the Government's tax base making further Government austerity almost inevitable.
  9. The EU may have to impose general tariffs on UK goods to prevent a 25% devaluation of Sterling making EU products and services uncompetitive against UK exports to the EU.
  10. A disintegration of the UK will be almost inevitable, but again, could take quite some time. We are used to talking politics in 12 month timeframes. The changes wrought by Brexit could take decades to fully manifest themselves.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 06:34:11 PM EST
Sturgeon isn't going to call another Scottish Independence referendum unless she is sure the SNP can win it.  The most recent Lord Ashcroft Poll has Yes with a narrow 52/48% lead.  My bet is she'll wait until there's a solid 56% in favor and maybe even 58% before trying it again.  

 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 07:35:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, and next time they better have some answers as to what currency they will be using, what is their policy of the division of the UK National debt, what happens to UK military assets in Scotland, and what happens at the border with England re: regulatory alignment if they rejoin the EU.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 08:40:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Scottish independence sentiment has been supercharged by Johnston and the subsequent pro-roguing of Parliament. And, as I'vementioned elsewhere, the loss of Ruth Davidson is a critical blow to Scottish Tories.

If the UK leaves without a deal on 31st October, I imagine independence polls will be at least 60-40 if not 70-30.

2 years from now I'd be astounded if a similar drift was not happening in Ulster. Both the DUP and now Joohnston have critically damaged unionism. People were willing to hold their noses and vote for bigots when their lifestyles were pretty good, but they may re-discover their consciences and a previously unsuspected Irishness soon enough after brexit.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 01:38:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with everything you say except this:

the UK lining up with the US on regulatory and other matters. It will become EU vs. US/UK

The UK is socially much more compatible with Europe than with the US. While British tourists may think they understand what is going on here based on brief holidays to Disney World, the reality of southwestern Pennsylvania, rural Indiana, New Mexico, Mississippi, Utah, etc. is shockingly different.

Trade negotiations between the UK and US would be amusing to say the least. And the US will be much more concerned about trade with the EU than with whatever is left of the UK.

by asdf on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 11:23:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More important, the UK has little of value to EXPORT to the US except ICT info and services, perhaps. So gross import value (USD) will slide on FX before the next DOD sec, as Larry "Trash Talk" Summers recently blurted, even strikes "the hardest bargain".

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 12:34:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
shoppers at Walmart and Kroger, Sam's Club and Costco are going to pile their "virtual" carts with what?

Waitrose tinned beans and imported Ford Fiestas?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 01:03:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Come now, Beanz Meanz Heinz.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 08:05:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The reason Brexit is happening at all is because this turns out not to be true. A significant proportion of the population has more in common with the average low-information red state racist than it does with European culture. So if you talk to British low-info voters you'll find they think the EU is literally a dictatorship, and the US is the land of freedom, hope, and opportunity and the UK's bff.

The US has done an outstanding job of colonising the UK culturally. And the media have been complicit. Even supposedly cosmopolitan newspapers like The Guardian are more likely to print slightly sneery comical stories about events in Europe than hard news about political developments in the EU. And the BBC has been hopeless for years now.

Only the educated middle classes and certain business types have any genuine attachment to the EU, and no one who matters needs cares what they want.

The reality is that the US Establishment thinks the UK and is quaintly rich in parts, a nice helpful pirate state for offshoring and tax evasion and money laundering, but not much of a major player otherwise. And the UK's voters and politicians are unusually easy to manipulate. So the UK will make a very nice meal, and the US will soon lose interest in the leftovers.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 05:47:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My understanding is that most of the German media have not believed that a no deal Brexit could happen. They seem to have woken up to this possibility finally.

The Brexiters, of course, expect the EU to cave in at the last minute.

by Bernard on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 08:36:13 PM EST
What is the French press saying?  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 09:13:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Very little. Not a major topic.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing
Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 08:06:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Reading Eurotrib, you'd believe that Brexit is the major issue Europe.

Fact is, except for Ireland -for very good reasons - and for the UK, where Brexit has sucked all the political oxygen, it has not been a prominent topic in continental Europe; only occasionally, like last March, in the run-up to the EU Council meeting.

As much as the toffs think themselves as the most important and influential people in Europe, the opinion is not reciprocated.

The main issues in Europe for the past three years are a weakening of international institutions, thanks to Trump, the rise of extreme right, who's now in power in Poland, Hungary, possibly Austria and Italy as well; for the eastern countries, the fear of Putin's Russia; the migration crisis in the Mediterranean, affecting mainly Greece, Cyprus, Malta and Italy. I would personally add the growing influence of organized crime in smaller countries like Cyprus, Malta or Slovakia.

In France in particular, the main issue has been the "gilets jaunes" winter of discontent and the Macron's regime continual push to impose their neo-lib reforms on the country. The region most impacted by Brexit is Northern France: local governments there have rung the alarm bell about the need to prepare for it (and they now claim to be ready).

by Bernard on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 10:08:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit is - of course - another example of the rise of the extreme right, and almost certainly also of the influence of Putin's Russia.

I can't imagine much that would do more damage to the extreme right across Europe, and also to Putin's plans, than a Remain outcome in the UK - not because this is a UK-specific issue, but because if Brexit succeeds the same template will be rolled out across Europe.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 11:29:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pray tell in what way Putin (as in Russia) would benefit from Brexit? Because I really can't see this.

Should Russia for some reason wanted weak EU, surely keeping UK inside would be the most efficient way to achieve this? If Russia wanted -- again, for some unknown reason -- to disintegrate EU, starting with a member Russia can help to overcome the necessary economic turmoils (say, Italy, Hungary etc) wouldn't have proven to be so counterproductive to the effort. Do you believe Russian policymakers are as separated from reality as the most extreme brexiters are.

It is true that with Britain removed EU will be much less Russophobic, but Poland (and Denmark and Sweden) still remains to blame Russia for everything.

Me, I would think a strong, but less trans-atlantic, EU would be most preferred by Russia. Much less hassle to deal with one block (that can calm down the most agressive, almost-racist, Russia-haters) that a hodge-podge of small nation-states with conflicting ambitions. Let EU deal with the national ambitions and economic turmoils and keep Europe stable and secure for Russia to prosper with.

So, for what purpose would Putin want Brexit?

by pelgus on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 02:11:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Question:"So, for what purpose would Putin want Brexit?"

Answer:"with Britain removed EU will be much less Russophobic, but Poland (and Denmark and Sweden) still remains to blame Russia for everything."

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 03:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The reality is that Putin does want Brexit. So there is no need to speculate if, because "if" is already established.

He has said as much a number of times, and the links between Leave, senior Tories, and the Russian oligarchy have been well-documented.

Why is more complex, and a full discussion would be book-length. But the template seems to be clear - Putin is supporting far-right movements across Europe, and aiming for regime change where possible. So there is no evidence at all that he's happy with peaceful coexistence. In fact the opposite is more likely.

Tusk hits back

Putin's disdain for liberalism and liberal democracy - which, coincidentally, seems to be shared by Brexiters and also by Trump and the US far-right - doesn't seem like a plausible position for someone interested in a peaceful and stable Europe.

In fact Putin is a textbook quasi-fascist reactionary who is making common cause with like-minded politicians in other countries. The far-right in the US is only too happy to support this, because when it comes to values the quasi-fascists in the US, the UK, Russia (and other countries) are largely interchangeable. The far-right in the UK has been on the same page for decades already.

So essentially we have a cultural/info war being used to destabilise a neighbouring superpower - partly because it's fun to try, partly because no one has done it on quite this scale before, and partly because it's incredibly cost-effective, far less obvious, and far less risky than overt Cold War II missile-waving.

I assume the plan is to roll out regime change across Europe, and Brexit is the proof-of-concept trial run. Russia gets its regime and value change, and a pliant neighbour less likely to impose sanctions and complain about human rights violations and military expansion, the US gets its "business opportunities", and the voters get screwed - all with more or less plausible (if not entirely convincing) deniability, and no actual shooting.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 05:34:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He has said as much a number of times

Right after the referendum he said that Brexit was not in Russia's interest. This was repeated by Russia's permanent representative to EU. Russia doesn't want disintegrated Europe. It can't afford it -- EU is Russia's biggest trading partner, regardless of sanctions. They need a trading block next to them, not a bunch of hostile, small nations.

So, the if is established only in the tabloid-level understanding of the issue. Looking behind the headlines to what was actually said, it's obvious that Russia has nothing to gain from Brexit, and that they know this.

the links between Leave, senior Tories, and the Russian oligarchy have been well-documented

Most of the Russian oligarchs Tories are cozy with are those who are opposed to Putin, and can't return to Russia (because they would have to pay long overdue taxes), so they live in London and fund anybody trying to remove Putin. Not every Russian "is close to Putin" or "belong to Putin's inner circle". When Soros meddles with politics in some country, do you automatically blame Trump or Orban? Or is it only Russian oligarchs that can't have their own agendas?

Putin is supporting far-right movements across Europe, and aiming for regime change where possible

Regime changes in Europe are extremely difficult, most countries have constitutions and working democracies. It's possible for right-wing parties to get to govermn, but that's not same as regime change. And Italy is giving an example how loonies don't last for long in government. At least not in countries where heads of state guard the constitution and democracy.

As for the right-wing support, I've seen a lot of talk about it, too. But very little actual evidence. I'm not saying I would be surprised if it turned out to be true (or maybe I would, Russians still seem to take fascism seriously) but so far I've only seen that National Front sought Russian loans trough Latvian middleman, they were not offered any money. And that Swedish(?) semi-neo-nazis webpage was funded by Ukrainian living in Berlin. Or something like that.

I'm not saying that you're wrong, but I'm taking that same approach as Craig Murray: some me the evidence. There's such an information war waged against Russia, that I won't take anything at face value anymore.

And here logic dictates that Russia benefits more from undisturbed EU than it gains from dissolving one. Now, the USA on the other hand...

by pelgus on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 03:49:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great comment - the basis for a diary methinks! Would be good to have a more researched and nuanced diary on how Putin and Russian émigré Oligarchs view Brexit, UK and EU. My own sense is similar to yours, that a close working relationship between Russia and the EU makes sense, problems in Crimea and Ukraine notwithstanding. Indeed you could argue that the US stirring things up in Ukraine is calculated to prevent such a rapprochement.

But that still leaves some apparent Russian actions as discordant notes. Outliers and anomalies? I'm thinking of Salisbury and Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17). Miscalculations?

I'm expecting an October surprise US/Israeli attack on Iran to aid the Trump re-election effort. That should test the USA/EU/Russian relationships! John Bolton is mad enough to try anything.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 04:04:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Latest rumor has Bolton out of the loop.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 05:29:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More likely too much of an interventionist whereas Trump is more of an isolationist. He was a strange choice for Nat Sec Advisor for that reason alone.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 08:51:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No one else would take it.  


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 3rd, 2019 at 04:35:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17). Miscalculations?

Purely accidental ... Eastern Ukraine was a war zone for weeks/months. Airspace should have been shut down for commercial flights. Ukraine government and ambassadors of EU countries did meet early in July 2014 but failed to act. Russia did a very poor handling of an ugly mistake. The military taking down a passenger plane we have seen in a few instances before: US and Iranian passenger flight during the Reagan years, Ukraine and a Soviet airliner, Soviet Union intercepting a South Korean flight and the top secret downing of a passenger flight above the Mediterranean near Italy during NATO exercises.

Interesting developments with the new Ukrainian actor/president who replaced the chocolate olygarch ...

Ukraine authorities arrest man allegedly tied to shooting down MH17 | Kyiv Post |
Is This MH17 Suspect the Reason Ukraine-Russia Prisoner Swap Stalled?  

Related reading in Dutch News

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 10:16:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I'd go with "reckless negligence " rather than  "accident": they most likely ran an air defence unit in battlefield mode without adequate command and control in an area with civilian flights.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 3rd, 2019 at 10:16:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Court of Appeals releases MH17 suspect Tsemakh

The Kyiv Court of Appeals has released Volodymyr Tsemakh, a fighter for the Russian proxy troops in eastern Ukraine and likely a key witness or suspect in the 2014 downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17.

Despite facing terrorism charges in Ukraine, Tsemakh has been released without bail or any travel restrictions.  

MH17 crash: 'Key witness' released in Ukraine | BBC News |

Related reading ...

UNIAN: Dutch foreign minister says release of MH17 suspect `raises questions'
The Malaysian PM cast doubt on Russian culpability in the attack  
A message to the soldiers in the Ukraine, the politicians, the media, our friends and family

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 09:36:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just an aside... The Putin loans to the FN are well-documented. It went like this, schematically :

  • Putin asks some banker friend to loan some millions to the FN for their election campaign
  • The loan is resold several times, and in the end transferred to a bad bank which subsequently goes bust
  • The FN never has to pay back the loan...

Problem for the FN : the French media got hold of the story, and they will have to pay back every penny.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Sep 3rd, 2019 at 08:51:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
if we're going to gloss competition between nations, wealth of &tc., mostly cos I'm sick and tired of being sick and tired of WWII delusions.

UK, MIT-OCE, gross value, 2017

Let's begin a SWOT reality check viz. RUSSIA with

  1. Crude Petroleum ($19.1B), Refined Petroleum
  2. Agriculture (lower right, "tan" color block)


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 04:14:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would be interested in your (and Afew's) view of how France will respond to a no deal Brexit at an elite and popular level. Will UK exports be "discouraged" at Calais? Will "sectoral agreements" in the absence of a withdrawal deal be permitted? Will Johnson et al be indulged afterwards or shunned like the plague?

And similarly for Germany. They may onlt we awakening slowly to the prospect of a no deal Brexit, but once they get going, how will they respond, especially if a recession beckons?

My own sense is that the whole ball game will change after a n deal Brexit, but I am struggling to  get a sense for how much, and how quickly.  

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 12:20:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 04:42:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you.

Sets my mind thinking the EU response to a No Deal will be a heavy sigh, a shrug, a brief moment of "Well this is a pain in the ass," and then deal with it.  IF Germany can be convinced to knock it off with the Austerity nonsense the EU will actually be better off without the UK.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 03:28:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
'without the CURRENT UK'.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 03:51:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that they do.

I think the plan is to force through No Deal and then capitalise on the ensuing chaos, politically and financially.

Textbook shock doctrine. Although rather than calling it that, we may as well call it what it really is - political terrorism.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 11:23:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
England is facing a the 1930s style liberal democracy failing into Fascism.  For much the same reason: incredibly inept, short-sighted, economic management.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 01:15:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the problem is worse than inept, short sighted economic management. It has become deliberate looting of the society by a self serving elite acting through the Conservative Party and given air cover by an allied self serving media.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 01:25:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. I don't think it was inept at all. It was carefully calculated.

The right used to be terrified of Communism. It was perfectly happy to support Hitler. Now that Communism isn't really a threat, it's repeating itself - because why not?

Put the proles in their box with a crippling combination of debt and economic insecurity, kill the welfare state, remove taxes, create a new feudal-corporate utopia controlled by an Orwellian combination of mass media lies and social media manipulations - what's not to like?

The Nazis didn't just happen. They were funded and supported by interests inside and outside Germany.

This is more of the same. Only this time we can't expect the "free" world to ride to the rescue, because the "free" world has decided it wants to be part of the problem.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 09:59:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's Time for Germany to Step Up  Der Speigel
Germany must accept that it is simply too big to be like Switzerland; it can't simply stay silent when France's president pitches the idea of working with Germany to reform the EU. Part of having a credible foreign policy is honoring international commitments to invest more in defense and cease being a freeloader on America's dime. This is the only way Germany will ever be able to shake the accusation that its prosperity comes at the cost of others.

Secondly, the government in Berlin must come to terms with an economic reality in which being overly proud of one's exports just won't cut it. In much of Germany, mobile internet access is spotty at best, and neither small- to medium-sized enterprises nor large corporations are prepared for the digital transformation and future-oriented, networked production methods. Therefore, Germany must invest in technologies and networks. It needs a new project that can be the foundation for its next economic miracle. The active, energetic pursuit of a shift toward renewables, a real energiewende would be a good place to start.



"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 09:01:38 PM EST
Sounds like a call for a classic Keynesian stimulus through infrastructure build.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Aug 31st, 2019 at 09:16:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is that what those in the monetary-theory-know are are calling "quantitative easing" again? Lagarde loved that one. For four years her advice for EU "stimulus" played a broken record: ONE TRILLION DOLLARS. Hilarious really, to anyone standing for her encore performance with surgical, structural adjustment programming just for Germany.

Let's take a peak again at 2017

What is, more or less, that Germans are supposed to import from the US and EU26 in 2020 that it does not already?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 12:50:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No. What Der Speigel's editorial called for was an abandonment of the austerity mentality and the BS that Germany is so virtuous because it always has run a surplus. It encourages noting that those surpluses have been at the expense of trading partners. Classic Keynesian responses to stagnation involve deficit spending to pump profitability into the private sector and to give the economy direction.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 12:58:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And about goddamn time.

The world is awash with morons with too much money they don't know how to use.  That cash needs to be taken away from them and put to useful, productive, purposes.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 01:21:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
o, I guess I read something else then.

Schmiegolman picks up polemic of world hegemony where Obama's courtship with BRD dropped at the Gate before he sailed into the Panic of '08. The timing of these overtures to bi-lateral restoration lost synch with mutual interests as the administration aged out of honeymoon, out of Libya, into TTIP. Like, "three years ago"?

Schmiegolman presents a "German model" as the envy of anonymous concern trolls now that Trump steers the leader of  "free trade". Austerity does not trouble that Germany. Complacency does. Growth does.

It is time to turn away from the policy of a perfectly balanced budget. Strict adherence to that policy has long provided the government with a comfortable excuse for not doing more economically and militarily.
He implies Trump is not his patron, but every talking point projects nationalist pride which evokes both ethnic stereotype and, evidently, bromides to flatter MAGA industrial exploits.
Part of having a credible foreign policy is honoring international commitments to invest more in defense and cease being a freeloader on America's dime. This is the only way Germany will ever be able to shake the accusation that its prosperity comes at the cost of others.
A "punching bag": Indeed post-WWI history has yoked German integrity (reunification) to responsibility for diverse crimes against humanity and global "financialization".

Allied resentments expressed, if not by belated demands for reparations, are "Germany is so virtuous because it always has run a surplus" (bad, bad EUR design, poor, poor PIIGS); and "those surpluses have been at the expense of trading partners" (such as paid in capital by EU27 soybean exporters? China, Canadian, Columbia, Russian creditors? Non! The US "dime" denominated in treasury bills that purchase and ship US armament, personnel, and payroll to US bases in NATO territories). Have y'all any idea how much cumulative US Keynesian debt outstanding is "pumping profitability" into private treasuries?

Schmiegolman has no Keynesian words or prescription for distributing surplus revenue in the treasury to advance HH inequity up the GINI scale or "deficit spending to pump profitability into the private sector" (of renewable energy when the coal and nuke generation winds down?). Recession is but a glimmer on his horizon, a GROWTH warning rather than a miss, reported to investor owned utilities.

The OCE "data visualization" is more meaningful than the humiliation of DB and VW to Germany's position in the JCPOA chain.

US quit the JCPOA, WTO, and Paris agreement. Remember? Schmiegolman's rather modest proposal approaches imperial adventure, "a creative drive to help it carve out a role for itself in the world" by comparison to US gov status as world-over net importer and liege. Above all, it is a superficial challenge to US posturing these many decades easily swallowed.

For despite only five surplus years in the prior 40, ie. escalating deficits, the US economic conditions are no better off, secure, or stable than Germany's. The irony is, up to the moment, Trump's war on trade balances and embrace of deficit spending scarcely repudiates the budget choices of either gov.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 05:08:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bankrupt and Irrelevant: the Presidential Debates and Four Recent Studies on Pentagon Spending
"Clearly, the Democratic candidates think they have good reasons for their silence on defense spending."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 03:57:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The democrats are not particularly unified; there are plenty of "moderates" in congress. Recall that Obamacare was just barely passed, by one vote, using "debatable" tactics, and with numerous features required by moderates that support various for-profit organizations.

To effect a change to US policy as drastic as "cut defense spending by (say) 20%" would require a very substantial majority, which they don't have and won't be getting any time soon.

by asdf on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 11:35:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
o, yes, mistakes were made deliberately omnibus. They earned every letter of "the odious."

Obama had a big Dem majority in the 111th, which explains in part why he spent that political capital on the banks and ARRA logroll before the 2010 MID-TERM. oops.

H.R.3590 engrossed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and Service Members Home Ownership Tax Act. (Rangel, Ways and Means chair)

The House passed it 10/08/2009-12:15pm (416-0, 16 NV)

The House referred H.R.3590 to the Senate, where their version was over-written by a series of instructions from diverse senate committees --notably Finance chaired by C-SPAN pharma-idol M. Baucus--as amendments famously read from the floor by H. Reid, 10/13/2009-12/23/2009.

The Senate passed H.R.3590 in its entirety "as amended" December 24, 2009, 07:05 AM (60-39, 1 NV)

Congress recessed for xmas. The enrolled NEW! "H.R. 3590" was not considered by joint reconciliation committee when it returned. This provoked some public scandal. Instead the House voted 03/21/2010-10:48pm to suspend rules providing for consideration of senate amendments to H.R. 3590 engrossing the NEW! PPACA. Roll no. 165 (219 - 212) records the House motion"to concur with Senate amendments".

Obama signed the bill next day, 22 March 2010, before anyone knew what was in it.

THEN congress had to pass a H.R.4872 - Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, 03/30/2010, to cover bad math. House vote, 220 - 207; Senate vote 56 - 43. Jubilation, recriminations, further "reconciliation acts," and litigation ensued.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Sep 3rd, 2019 at 01:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most of those people are gone, wiped out in the 2010 debacle.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 3rd, 2019 at 04:39:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Show me.

Let's start with Miss Nancy and her little ankle biter Steny whipping passage of H.R. 1 out of the UNPRECEDENTED "progressive" caucus.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Sep 3rd, 2019 at 10:37:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Schmiegolman? Who is he and from whence came he?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 06:22:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
second cousin thrice removed



Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 09:32:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
SPIEGEL alert Or is it?
This is probably the least Atlanticist editorial from Der Spiegel in recent memory. And quoting Krugman who has been politely ignored for decades? Calling for investments in high speed networks and renewables?

It has taken the realization of a very likely no-deal Brexit, Trump tariffs and a weakening economy, coupled with the Merkeldämmerung for some in the German elite to start questioning the dogma.

by Bernard on Sun Sep 1st, 2019 at 09:37:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"This is probably the least Atlanticist editorial from Der Spiegel in recent memory."

Which makes it all the more a bellwether of German reaction to current circumstances, primarily declining growth and trade surplus.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 06:17:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Growth of what?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 06:23:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The GNP.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 10:02:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
GNP? Rly?

Interesting.

To explain further: GDP (gross domestic product) is, as we say on our FactCheckED.org site, "the total market value of goods and services produced within the borders of a country," regardless of the nationality of those who produce them. GNP (gross national product) is the total market value of goods and services produced by the residents of a country, even if they're living abroad. So if a U.S. resident earns money from an investment overseas, that value would be included in GNP (but not GDP). And the value of goods produced by foreign-owned businesses on U.S. land would be part of GDP (but not the other measure).
sollipsism suicide
As for which is the better indicator of economic ["]health["], GDP is the primary measure used by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BEA says that GDP "refers to production taking place in the United States. It is, therefore, the appropriate measure for much of the short-term monitoring and analysis of the U.S. economy." Prior to 1991 [BWAH!], however, the BEA used GNP as its primary measure. When it made the switch, the BEA noted that GDP was already being used by "virtually all other countries," so making comparisons between the U.S. and other nations would be easier. GDP is also consistent with other economic indicators, such as employment [WHERE?].
Will you be quoting Germany GNP per capita in the future?

neologism
Eurostat to revise EU's annual GDP figures higher, 2014
Beijing Rethinks Formula for GDP, 2013
Changes to How the U.S. Economy is Measured Roll Out July 31, 2013

reference
NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts
St. Louis Fed, GNP rate of GDP "data visualization"

archived book cooking
revisions to GDP calculation and classification of "output" by Factoryless Goods Producers [FGP] and Manufacturing Service Providers ...
The search engines are giving me trouble serving "1850 GNP". Why is that odd? ...


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Sep 2nd, 2019 at 10:59:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
GNP or GDP itemized accounting growth? You be the judge.

German trial looks into controversial cum-ex dividend deals

There's been no lack of superlatives used by the media when describing the criminal trial that begins Wednesday at a district court [!] in Bonn, Germany. Reporters have called it "the biggest financial fraud trial" and at the same time "the most complicated" tax case trial in modern German history.

The trial involves two British investment bankers, Martin S. (41) and Nicholas D. (38)

HOLD THE BREXIT PHONE.
in a double ROLE -- as defendants as well as the main witnesses [PLEA DEAL ALERT] in the case which centers around so-called cum-ex trading schemes that the two and many others were involved in between 2006 and 2011.
P&L statements, possibly revisions of public revenue
What exactly are cum-ex deals transactions?

Cum-ex trades are equity deals sales. Investors rely on the sale of borrowed [no interest payments?!] shares right before a given firm was slated to pay dividends [to equity owner].

To put it differently, short[!]ly before the dividend payout day, shares with ("cum") and without ("ex") dividend rights were quickly traded among various market players, resulting in double tax [!] reclaims for share traders -- reclaims that authorities now call illegitimate.
[...]
The reason why both market players and authorities are nervous about cum-ex trades is obvious -- it's the sheer amount of money that was involved.

Tax offices reimbursed capital gains tax that had never been paid at all. The cum-ex deals of the two British bankers in question eventually meant a tax loss of €400 million ($443 million). Across Europe, the damage caused by cum-ex deals in general was calculated to be a staggering €55 billion.

alrighty then. Show me the income earner.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Sep 3rd, 2019 at 10:20:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, that would be a real aggiorniamento (how you say dat in German?), but it's Europe's only hope. Probably the world's.

Luckily, we have a plan.

What is the Green New Deal for Europe?
The Green New Deal for Europe is an ambitious and pragmatic plan to transition to zero greenhouse gas emissions and transform Europe in the process.
It involves an annual investment of 5% of GDP in infrastructure, agriculture, and industry, creating millions of new jobs and ending the era of austerity -- all without raising your taxes.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Sep 3rd, 2019 at 09:01:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I ticked your box simply to register my pleasure that sumbuddy recognizes that radical, remedial action is required from "government buildings" to alter the course of human history --despite BREXIT catastrophe of BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS.

Then I read the Executive Summary. There's a lot of investment marketing material in there, literally, sales of equities and bonds cloaked in some very lofty aspirations. m'k. I let the extra layers of EC and ECJ lard on top of UN blah blah programming for the "Gobal South" slide to the finish.

Then I start reading "The Report" blah blah blah ..

The result is commonly known as Black Zero: a fanatic pursuit of 'balanced budgets' has precluded government action on scientific evidence ...
and I sez to myself, "SELF, What is the matter with these people? I'm worried. I don't see what processes, people, or things they intend to change to correct "anthropomorphic" catastrophe. Do you see what they want to change?"

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 03:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Luxembourg leads EU push to climate-proof Energy Charter Treaty
"The Luxembourg government is now trying to build a coalition of climate-responsible countries" in the European Union to reform the treaty and align it with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, he said, adding the EU should be "much more pro-active" in pushing the reform forward.

"I will again put it on the agenda when we meet on the 24th because I think we need to deepen this mandate," Turmes said referring to a meeting of EU energy ministers scheduled for 24 September.

The COMISH: Energy Union portfolio, 1/28
"There is a huge responsibility on the new Commission to make this energy charter one of its priorities," Turmes added, saying the reform was a question of coherence for incoming Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who promised to table a "Green Deal for Europe" during her first 100 days in office.

archived silent library
Commissioners assemble: Deadline day
'Green Deal' supporters resist idea of splitting energy and climate portfolio

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 08:33:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Climate change will dramatically devalue farmland in southern Europe, EU agency reveals
Italy, Greece, Portugal, the south of France and Spain could face a reduction in the relative profitability of agriculture, which could ultimately result in the loss of agricultural land [NO. That's not iiiiiiit] and farmers abandoning the activity, the report says.
bad, climate, bad bad climate
[CAPTION CONTEST: Percentage change in farmland values projected for the period 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990 (EEA report No 04/2019, source: Van Passel et al. 2017)]

In particular, drought frequency will increase, especially in the Mediterranean during spring and summer. In those areas, higher temperatures could also affect the livestock sector in terms of worsening animal health and reducing livestock production.

archived for the people in the back
Europe CAMPAIGN 2019
Welcome to the European Drought Observatory!

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 08:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The premise of the European GND campaign is that we have to start from where we are. Paradox : DiEM25 (who is behind it, if you hadn't noticed), is dedicated to radical reform of the EU rules and institutions, but the GND is designed to work within the existing institutions and rules. For example : finessing the deficit rule. Bonds issued by the EIB do not count for the 3% government debt limit, hence they can issue 5% of EU GDP annually in debt...

The aim is to allow a wide coalition of parliamentairians and governments, from centre right to hard left, to put the money where their mouths are concerning the generally- agreed "climate emergency".

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 10:23:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know a no-low tax base, "perpetual bond" scheme when I see it.

So. I'm to understand then, this GNP will become a profit-making, interest-bearing global enterprise which relies on investors with SURPLUS INCOME to purchase private and public debentures offering the highest yield. Radical. "Disaster capitalism" from one end of the report, solidarity from the other, while "landvalues" plummet more in come countries than others. Brilliant. NEW! economy.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Sep 5th, 2019 at 10:44:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which government anywhere in the world operates OR reports a "balanced budget"?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 03:35:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Irish government has, in the last couple of years, but only because they can't get their sums and forecasts right...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 03:53:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 05:15:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Technical changes in global accounting standards regarding the allocation and timing of corporate tax receipts were mainly responsible for the one-off increase, Donohoe said, adding that he could not say if that related to one or more companies.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 05:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IF
0 = R - C
is a "fanatcal pursuit", a BLACK ZERO,

how might GREEN people obtain "carbon neutral" industry FTW?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 03:45:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry I did not see this post prior to posting my Green New Deal for Eurozone diary.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Sep 6th, 2019 at 05:47:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hong Kong activists appeal for German support
wut

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 05:11:36 PM EST
Mercedes will provide a free car (second hand diesel) to each seasoned protestor on condition they stop protesting and annoying "our friends in China".

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 05:43:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 4th, 2019 at 08:25:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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