Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

LQD: EU27 [including France] not to say "non"

by Bernard Tue Sep 10th, 2019 at 07:21:21 PM EST

The title is, of course, a tongue in cheek reference to ATinNM"s diary based on a Deutsche Welle article reporting:

Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has said that under the current circumstances, France won't offer the UK another extension to its withdrawal from the EU.

Of course, all members of the EUCO have a right to veto an A50 extension should Boris follow the law and request it, but a "France says 'non' to Brexit delay" headline sells more copy in the English speaking world than, say "Luxembourg says 'non' to Brexit delay".

In any case, it doesn't matter: if the UK manages to ask for an extension, the EU27, including France, will grant one, however reluctantly. Here's why.

There's a rather good summary in this Politico.eu article, written from Brussels by non-Brits. They have this to say about Le Drian's outburst:

Brussels can't help but extend the Brexit horror show

In Brussels, such threats are viewed as both a genuine expression of current EU27 sentiment -- they are thoroughly fed up with Britain and its national mess -- and also as perfectly accurate. They want the U.K. to provide some substantive reason for a delay, though that doesn't seems difficult given that a national election within weeks or months is now regarded as inevitable.

At the same time, such threats are viewed as strategically useful, serving to counter the long-running conspiracy theory among Brexit supporters that somehow the EU is in cahoots with Remain forces in the U.K., working to thwart Britain's departure altogether.

But yes, everybody agrees that no one wants to be responsible for forcing a no-deal crash out by refusing an extension:

Such a move, they concede, would make the EU and the 27 capitals responsible, at least in the public's mind, for the acute economic harm expected as a result of no deal, no matter the many months of insisting that London and London alone would be to blame for a no-deal outcome.

The Politico crew also noted a rising exasperation at the never ending Brexit drama:

Several EU officials said that the deepening political crisis in London offers proof that French President Emmanuel Macron was correct to oppose a longer extension when the European Council voted in April to postpone the cliff-edge date to October 31. That was the second extension granted by the Council to then Prime Minister Theresa May, having postponed previously from the original March 29 deadline for the U.K.'s departure.

Better not take these 'non' comments, from Le Drian or any one else, at face value: in the end, no EU27 leader, least of all Macron, will risk breaking the consensus on such an important issue.

Still, a second EU diplomat said that the view in Paris is a bit more textured than recent public pronouncements suggest and that the Elysée would be open to a brief extension, perhaps up to two months, in order to let the U.K. hold a national election and create conditions for a final Brexit agreement by the time EU27 leaders hold their December summit.

"In this moment, Paris is calling the shots; Germany will follow the consensus," the second diplomat said. "But Paris' position is more nuanced than it seems."

"Just a few weeks," the diplomat added, predicting what Macron would accept. "The deal has to be done at December's Council."

My take on the advances in the coming weeks will be to get a deal done. The House of Commons with Speaker Bercow have put Boris Johnson in a bind ... the tactics promoten by Cummings backfired!

The pressure is on Downing Street 10 to comply with the Law and fulfill the election promise to leave by October 31. The compromise will not satisfy the parties involved, but the hanging threat of crashing out will bring the EU and Boris together.

It appears the Irish Sea will be a temporary border between the UK and EU. Boris will safe face and Labour will not dare to block the last-minute deal approved by the EU-27.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Sep 10th, 2019 at 08:06:19 PM EST
The Irish Sea border would seem to be a good compromise if Brexit effectively happens. At this point, everything is up in the air.
by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Sep 10th, 2019 at 08:27:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Note that quoting Politico.eu is just that: quoting, not endorsing. I have of course remarked on their neo-lib (and Atlanticist) bend before; they also practice access journalism quite a lot, but in that regard, they aren't much different from other corporate media.

The interesting thing is that they are one of the few non-British English language publications in Europe, with a large part of their staff in Brussels and various places on the continent, so their perspective on Brexit is obviously a bit different from the ones found in Britain or Ireland. If anything, they act as a mouthpiece to a lot of EU insiders, who are largely quoted in that article.

by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Sep 10th, 2019 at 08:39:11 PM EST
anonymous ballots!

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Sep 10th, 2019 at 10:57:51 PM EST
For a further elucidation of the meaning of "non" see A Glossary of Brexitology

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 11th, 2019 at 10:56:42 AM EST
HMG scenario modeling 2019, abridge, redacted, 6 pp

Operation Yellowhammer, HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions as of 2 August 2019 [PDF]

Key Planning Assumptions
3. France will impose EU mandatory controls on UK goods Day 1 No Deal (D1ND) and have built infrastructure and IT system to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk based control regime. ...

WHERE is the bit about HGM Reasonable Best Case Planning Assumptions?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Sep 12th, 2019 at 09:41:26 PM EST
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst! cont'd.
11. UK nationals will lose their EU citizenship and, as a result, can expect to lose associated rights and access to services over time, or be required to ass them on a differen basis to now. All MS
MS might be acronymn of Mission Systems
have now published legislative proposals, but not all have passed legislation to secure all rights for UKNs. There is a mixed picture across MS in terms of the level of generosity and detail in the legislation. In some MS, UKNs need to take action now, whilst others they do not. Complex administrative procedures within MS, language barriers and uncertainty regarding the UK political situation are contributin to some UKNs being slow to take action. ...
HMG probably should have published this ahead of REFERENDUM 2016.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 12th, 2019 at 10:08:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
errata: "...be required to access them on a different basis now."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 12th, 2019 at 10:11:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But now the It seems a no-deal Brexit is going to happen, Finland's Prime Minister says

When asked about the probability of a no-deal Brexit, Antti Rinne told CNBC: "I will say that now it seems that it's going to happen, and we need to accept that it's going to happen, but I hope that we can reach a situation where we can together, with British and EU27, to create a better world..."

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Sep 13th, 2019 at 07:17:03 PM EST
Since the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Wales, & etc. etc. is a posturing windbag.

EU officials reject Boris Johnson claim of 'huge progress' in Brexit talks

EU officials have rejected Boris Johnson's claim that "a huge amount of progress" is being made in Brexit talks ...


" ... in fact people are a bit dismayed," said one EU source, describing the mood after the latest talks. "I am not even going to call them negotiations - the last session on Friday did start touching on content - that's actually quite a step forward ... but we still should have been there a long time ago and [an end result] is still quite far away."


Johnson's latest rhetorical fancy - that, like the Incredible Hulk, the UK would break out of its "manacles" on 31 October - has further fuelled EU scepticism about his sincerity.

Describing the language as "not very surprising", the EU source said: "It all makes it look like it's a bit of a joke. We are talking about something extremely serious. The consequences of no deal will be extremely serious and it looks like this is being treated as a game in which you are the hero sort of story rather than [dealing] with real lives."

Boris is a posturing, vacuous, spoiled brat steering his country to a major disaster.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 15th, 2019 at 07:16:57 PM EST

May, Johnson, and MPs can't keep their lies straight. The principle lie is unilateral powers inherent to UK state "constitution". Secondarily, that negotiation with EU to modify any and all treaties continues, whether by executive fiat d/b/a royal prerogative or STYMIED parliamentary legislation.

I've read the three cases' opinions. I did some background at legislation.gov.uk on cur statute and historical "convention" (non-statutory authority of executive and parliament). The questions for the baby SCOTUK all concern defining baby separation of powers: Under which conditions may a PM invoke the royal prerogative? (Parliament forgot to revoke hahaha royal prerogative with statute.)

That is to say, the current "exit date" is of no interest to UK "constitution". It appears sort of, kind of, in litigants' pleadings only in relation to A.50(3) extension faits accomplis and to the PM's nefarious motive to STYMY assembly of parliament IF and WHEN it wants to. Quite conspicuously, STYMIED proceedings of parliament do not include approval or disapproval of the withdrawal agreement (non-negotiable "deal") concluded by a PM and the EU. Mention of past, current, and future proceedings of parliament barely acknowledges "proper consideration" of "no deal" (and pro forma reports scheduled "under NIEFA 2019") :

therefore irrespective of the making of a withdrawal agreement with the European Union with a view to ameliorating some of the adverse effects of withdrawal (that there will be adverse effects would seem to be accepted by the Prime Minister, given his expressed wish to negotiate [sic] an agreement). If withdrawal by 31 October 2019 means a no deal Brexit then the Prime Minister is prepared to accept that. He would prefer to be "dead in a ditch" to not achieving that objective. [Cherry:46]
As in the beginning so it is in the end: EU gov-- its "sovereignty" and autonomy-- does not exist in the imaginations of UK "public officers." Communicating with people who are unwilling and unable to comprehend their own enacted "constitution" is futile. There isn't a bin big enough for all of them.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Sep 15th, 2019 at 09:39:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Has anyone given a single thought to "leaking" Johnson's so-called legislative agenda in the Queen's Speech? After all, the mooooood seems to be that a PM cannot compel parliament to sit at any time and legislate anything. And parliament has not published a negotiable instrument theoretically to replace "May's deal."

I idly wonder, Why?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 15th, 2019 at 09:53:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Chances of no-deal are rising and rising - Eurointelligence
The Guardian ended its story with the remark that France will in the end not veto because Emmanuel Macron does not want to be blamed for a no-deal Brexit. We find that astonishing. Who on earth would blame Macron for Brexit?

I am astonished that they are astonished. For Brexiteers, the EU in general - and the French in particular - are always to blame. Whatever the issue.
by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Sep 17th, 2019 at 05:46:29 PM EST
Clear to me the Brexiters want to be able to blame the EU for the coming problems.  And they'll probably succeed, no matter what the EU does.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 17th, 2019 at 08:02:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]