Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Getting rid of Boris...

by Frank Schnittger Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 03:26:21 PM EST

The judgement of the UK Supreme Court is about as bad as it could be for Boris:

  1. It is unanimous - therefore there is no minority report the government can cling to in part justification for its stance

  2. It is clear cut - no equivocation - the prorogation was unlawful, void, and of no effect - therefore Parliament can resume sitting immediately, and Bills in progress through the house will not have lapsed.

  3. Although the judgement does not say so explicitly, it follows the PM advised the Queen to act unlawfully

  4. The Parliament has lost two weeks work during which time it could not fulfil its primary functions - so real harm has been done, and the effect of the prorogation is described as "extreme".


Logically Boris should now resign - but of course he won't - the laws are for the little people - nevertheless there are now clear grounds for holding him in contempt of parliament.

However, more than ever, Parliament needs to avoid a general election now, because:

  1. Boris in situ in No.10 would have a considerable political advantage - possession in 9/10ths. of the law.

  2. Boris will turn it into an explicit people vs. Parliament election - undermining the whole nature of UK Parliamentary democracy

  3. An election will take the UK past Nov. 1st., and out of the EU by default.

Therefore an immediate change of government is required, as Boris has previously said he may ignore the law and refuse to extend A.50 under any circumstances.

However under the FTP Act, a vote of no confidence in the government would trigger a 14 day delay followed by a general election, so another procedure may be required.

Could parliament vote no confidence in the PM personally (i.e. not in the government in the from of words required by the FTP Act), instructing him to resign, and requesting the Queen to appoint a replacement? This would avoid the necessity of Parliament having to agree on a replacement, something it would have difficulty in doing.

Presumably the Queen would then appoint the Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition to the role of PM and he could try to form either a Labour minority or a national unity government of some or all opposition parties. If the Tories then tried to vote no-confidence in his government, he could even afford to lose some opposition MP's support or some abstentions and still retain power.

Opposition parties could then allow a de facto status quo to persist where Corbyn leads a caretaker government for long enough to seek an A.50 extension, negotiate a "better" Brexit deal, and to organise a referendum probably in late winter or early Spring - all without some bitter Corbyn opponents ever having to vote for him. The in-built advantages of being in possession of the Office of PM would then work in Corbyn's favour.

Much has been made of the continued ambiguity of Corbyn's stance on Brexit - refusing to explicitly back Remain. However if Corbyn is to negotiate a new Brexit deal with the EU in good faith, he cannot pre-judge the outcome of those negotiations.

He could ask his Brexit Secretary to negotiate a better deal (i.e. May's deal with a N. Ireland only backstop plus a much more fleshed out political declaration outlining the future UK/EU relationship a Labour Government would seek in negotiations during the Transition period). He could even agree to take the Backstop out of the Withdrawal Agreement entirely, and instead negotiate an amended Good Friday Agreement devolving trade supervisory powers to the institutions set up under that agreement - the N. Ireland Assembly, Executive, The North/South Ministerial Council, and the British–Irish Intergovernmental Conference. Many things are possible with a bit of imagination and good will.

He could also ask his Foreign Secretary to negotiate a better deal for Remaining in the EU, with a significant social democratic rather than neo-liberal reform of EU policies. The coming to power of a new Commission under Ursula Von der Leyen could prove fortuitous timing in this regard. Anything cooked up under Juncker is more or less guaranteed a bad press in the UK.

He could then consider the merits of both deals before recommending one to the British people during the referendum campaign, pledging to implement whichever deal achieves majority support in the referendum and thus maintaining good faith with both Leave and Remain Labour voters.

Corbyn's "fence sitting", much derided by political analysts and the media, could yet prove pivotal in reassuring the British people that a fair attempt is being made to give them a genuine choice between two realistic options - the Best Brexit Deal available, or a better deal for Remain.

But we have to get rid of Boris first...

Display:
Supreme court ruling makes no-deal scenario less likely, EU believes
Brussels officials think Boris Johnson has lost control and will not be able to crash UK out

An overly simplistic reading of course... The occupants of the car are now fighting for control of the steering Wheel and brakes, but the cliff edge is getting closer.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 04:58:55 PM EST
It also gives the EU an incentive to harden their negotiating position and simply wait BoJo's time as PM out. They won't want to give him a win in any case. Besides, its hard to see Parliament approving any deal he cuts - he has alienated 20+ expelled Tory MPs and made it even harder for Brexiteers Labour MPs to vote for anything he recommends.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 05:25:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris has already whined that the SC has made getting a deal harder. And we can count on the billionaire shit media to frame the SC judgment entirely as anti-Brexit (already happening).

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 05:47:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And of course that means the SC is subverting the "will of the people".  Can't wait for them to finally throw off the façade and start openly campaigning for a full-on fascist dictatorship.  That they would control.  The same way the German industrialists so effectively controlled Hitler.
by rifek on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 09:01:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I take it that you mean Fleet Street is propagandizing for a fascist government. That is our deep fear. Something needs to be done about the concentrated power of the UK media. Like break them up into 100 pieces.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 03:18:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, and the US is the same.
by rifek on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 05:42:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A few front pages, h/t The Guardian:

Typical featured reader comment on Murdoch's The Sun:

Dave Martin of Sheffield wrote: "The elite have shafted us again. It seems OK for the Remain side to establish new laws and bills at short notice to stop our democratic vote to leave the EU.

"It is they who should be taken to court for NOT carrying out the will of the people.



Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 06:52:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At least Julian Assange is still locked up in a high security prison. After all, he did miss a bail.

One can retain one's believe in the justice...even if the SC seems to be filled with political activists.

by pelgus on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 06:48:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The political way forward would seem to be:

  1. Put together asap an agreement on a caretaker, no-deal-avoiding government, along clear lines as to what major policies would be pursued (beyond requesting an A50 extension), whether Corbyn heads it or not

  2. Parliament votes no confidence in Blow-Job.

  3. This might be unprecedented, but the UK is in uncharted territory anyway: Parliament votes confidence in the new candidate government and petitions HRM to call on its leader to replace Bojo.

  4. After the episode of Boris's advice to the Queen to give assent to an illegal act, his credit with the Palace will be next to nil. Advising the Queen once again to flout the wishes of Parliament is simply unlikely to work.

  5. Pfeffle still wants to hang on? Possession may be nine-tenths of the law concerning property, not concerning the holding of a Crown office. In theory (which might become practise) the Queen can fire him on the grounds that Parliament wants him out and has proposed an alternative with a majority.

Agreed, that last point is uncertain and Boris might well try to defy the judicial and legislative branches in the name of the will of the people that he embodies. As I think I've already said a few times, he will need the army on his side if he wants to try that.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 05:36:15 PM EST
Agreed on all points except #1. Admittedly the Supreme Court exceeded my low expectations, but my expectations of the HOC are even lower. I doubt a majority would agree to Corbyn as Prime Minister, and I can see no reason why he (or the Labour Party) would agree to anyone else. Perhaps they will surprise me and get their act together.

But I think my scenario, whereby the HOC vote no confidence in Boris and demand his resignation/removal by the Queen without naming a replacement may be slightly more likely. Without a clear indication to the contrary, any choice by HRH other than Corbyn would be completely arbitrary and capricious as no opposition figure can command more than derisory support without his say so.

If the Tories then call a VONC in PM Corbyn, he can survive even if a few of his diehard opponents abstain - crucially at least until an A.50 extension is obtained, presumably conditional on the UK organising a "democratic event". So if you were a ChangeUK or dissident Tory MP which would you prefer - a general election or a second referendum?

Crucially they can argue that a general election could just produce another hung parliament whereas a referendum guarantees a decisive result.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 06:07:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the problem with 1? I mean, obviously, a huge chunk of MPs fear Corbyn as an Evil Socialist. But with everything that's happened, I'd have thought they'd have figured out by now that socialism requires legislation, so they could always not vote for it, and have Corbyn as a dangling, impotent PM able to do only what they let him. Just like Johnson, only more agreeable to their will.
by IdiotSavant on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 11:08:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The media, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats do not want to let Corbyn near power, even if closely circumscribed, lest getting to know him as a leader might legitimize him in the publie eye.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 03:21:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank:"So if you were a ChangeUK or dissident Tory MP which would you prefer - a general election or a second referendum?"

I will ask the same question of Labour. My surmise WAS that they would first hold a second referendum, then an election. But today I read in the Guardian that Corbyn wants an election, with the new government to organize a referendum.

It seems to me that a caretaker government could organize a referendum and then let the general election be held in the light of the decision of the second referendum. The problem is timing and weather, and, in any case, there is likely only time for one election before Jan 31, 2020.

Were the second referendum to favor Remain the interim government could  then formally withdraw the Article 50 request and schedule a general election as early as seems prudent next spring. Were the referendum to favor Leave the interim government could negotiate the best deal it could for an orderly exit, sign the agreement and then call an election.

The above described process can thus guarantee an orderly process in either eventuality and avoid a 'no deal' Brexit. If a general election is called before a second referendum it will be up to the voters as to whether there might still be a no deal Brexit. If they want that they can vote for the Leave Tories and Boris has shown he is happy to crash out of the EU.

I would like to hear the opinions of those more familiar with the UK and UK politics.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 08:43:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn said in his Brighton speech that a Labour government would negotiate a credible Brexit deal within 3 months and hold a second referendum to give voters a choice between that and Remain within 6 months. (He did not specify whether that Labour government would be formed after an election or following a VONC in Boris in the present Parliament).

This ties in with my expected timetable that a caretaker  (Labour or national unity) government would negotiate a Brexit deal by the end of the currently suggested A.50 extension to end January with the referendum held during a further 3 months extension in April.

A general election would then follow shortly after the second referendum.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 09:35:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn said in his Brighton speech that a Labour government would negotiate a credible Brexit deal

In other words, he is a much of a liar as Johnson?

by asdf on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 10:56:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Credible means something different to Corbyn than it does to Johnson. Corbyn understands what the EU have to secure. Johnson assumes he can get anything he wants or just crash out. If you consider a crash out acceptable I guess that is a credible way to exit. But the Brexiteers have not been able to sell anything they have negotiated to Parliament.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 12:01:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No. Credible for Labour means a N. Ireland only backstop and a much closer relationship to the Customs Union and Single market sketched out in the accompanying Political Declaration. The EU (and Ireland) don't have a problem with this.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 11:01:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the UK will, because it makes the whole thing completely pointless and more or less turns the EU into the sort of undemocratic overload beloved of Brexiteer fantasy and conspiracy theory.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 12:58:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Every Brexit deal you can think off is inferior to actual membership... so change there...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 01:12:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well yes, but this one has the disadvantage of making a lot of the nonsense talked by Brexiteers true.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 01:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They don't care about N. Ireland and the political declaration is non-binding anyway. Some are already talking about using any deal as just a stepping stone to a "clean break" later on - and using Ireland as an example - whereby Ireland got a v. partial independence (less N. Ireland, Treaty Ports, land annuities) in 1922 and then became fully independent and out of the Commonwealth in 1948. Some are even saying they would vote for May's deal as is if it were brought back before the Commons. Expectations have gradually become lower and lower...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 01:52:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn said in his Brighton speech that a Labour government would negotiate a credible Brexit deal

Has he run this by the EU?

I am given to understand they have something to do with Brexit negotiations.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 03:13:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There presently may be no means for Corbyn to 'run something by the EU'. Were top EU officials to discuss an alternate deal with Corbyn would that not be considered 'meddling in the affairs of a member nation?'

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:21:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doubtless. Corbyn might try very informal behind-the-scenes discussions with people who in now way officially represent the EU. Just to get some reactions, some advice.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:46:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's wrong with that? Isn't that how Berlusconi was removed?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 08:39:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn, like all UK pols, continues to subscribe to the UK common wisdom that Britain is the centre of the universe.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:49:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I believe that corbyn has been meeting with senior people at the EU since the whole sorry process started and has discussed borad outlines of what a Labour brexit deal would look like that has received broad support in Brussels. Largely cos it's more or less what the EU expected in the wake of the vote cos it's in line with what Vote Leave were saying about the shape of the deal.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:32:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I never saw Corbyn as an 007 type. Because secretly meeting senior EU officials (in London? Brussels?) without the fact becoming known all over media and social networks and fueling massive Tory outrage about the Opposition undercutting HM Gov's official negotiations and bringing down the deal they were about to conclude and on and on and on... would really call for impressive espionage savvy.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:59:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps some less than senior members of the EU have met with Corbyn in the UK, quietly?


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 05:14:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it's been conducted quite openly. but the press have absolutely no interest in Corbyn behaving competently.

So, unless they can tie him to soviet spyiing, or total inventions about alleged anti-semitism in their own minds then they're not gonna say anything.

Oh look, here's another girlfriend of Boris...con't p94

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 05:49:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
'Streuth, 'tis true, next time I'll check before snarking. He even met with Michel Barnier (who was at pains to say he wasn't negotiating with Corbyn). It is in the media, in fact. It was a year ago almost to the day.

Trouble with Corbyn is he doesn't have blonde girlfriends with big tits. And he's not 007.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 06:12:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah. I think we can assume Barnier showed him his old UK red line step function graph. I doubt Corbyn can have gotten any promises worth printing though. All timeline issues move back to the Council.
by generic on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 06:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brighton lifesaver ...

The Labour Party was in shambles until the very moment the ruling of the High Court became known. Tom Watson ceded his allotted time for a speech to leader Jeremy Corbyn. Watson won't be able to address the party members on Wednesday as Parliament will be in session from 11.30 am onwards.

It took a constitutional earthquake to get Labour members hold of their senses and focus on true Britain's interest. Corbyn remains a divisive figure as we have seem in the procedures in Brighton. Not a party ready to take responsibility ... a missed chance to gain ample good-will. Labour's ambiquity is irreversible in the crucial talks during the coming days in the House of Commons.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 05:41:56 PM EST
What party IS ready and able to take control of the UK government? Division seems everywhere triumphant.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 04:21:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris and his narrow choices ....

A. Use his magic wand and get a deal with the EU-27 in Brussels within a fortnight;

B. Ask for an extension and resign which will enable a general election in early November ... a people's vote

Stubborn Boris has not done the Tory Brexiteers a favor ... the strategy of the two Dominics has been a grand failure ... clean sweep Boris has given Labour a second wind ... no credit to Corbyn and Watson and their cut-throat rivalry.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 06:31:39 PM EST
If there is to be any election in what remains of 2019 it would, IMO, likely be a second referendum on Brexit. In all of the furor I have not heard any specific date suggested by a major political figure for any election. A majority of the existing Parliament is for Remain, and it would be suicidal to Remain for there to be a general election before a second referendum.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 04:28:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 06:31:48 PM EST
A clear distribution between support for Boris the dictator and parliamentary democracy.

The ruling was about the rule of law and UK Constitution (unwritten) ... it was not about Brexit! 😎

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 06:40:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris Johnson meets Varadkar as suspension of parliament is ruled unlawful
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said he would "absolutely not" join calls on Mr Johnson to resign. "Whoever is prime minister of the United Kingdom is somebody we're going to work with. It's not for us to decide who the prime minister of the UK is," he said.

Mr Varadkar, who is in New York for the UN General Assembly meeting, said he still intended to meet Mr Johnson there today as planned.

As the two began their meeting, Mr Varadkar said he was keen for the UK to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, while Mr Johnson said: "We remain cautiously optimistic, but still cautious" about reaching a Brexit deal.

Afterwards, Mr Varadkar said the two "got into some more details" in the meeting but stressed: "No agreements by any means."



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 06:34:24 PM EST
The Irish Times - Varadkar meeting PM Johnson

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 06:49:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I saw a video of Boris sitting - a bit uneasy - next to der Trumpf. The latter heralding the bonus of the British leader of the Conservatives ... "He's not going anywhere."

Well, that's certainly true of his Brexit ideology and strategy in British parliament.

I watched closely his eyes ... clearly a gloomy look. This was not the Boris of bluster and blatter. Reminded me of sad puppy eyes with hanging ears.

Just breaking ... Boris Johnson has spoken by phone to the Queen.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 07:26:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It may appear sensible to decide to work with whoever another country appoints, and not try to appoint one for them.

However, by not acknowledging Corbyn as interim PM  in order for him to call for free, fair and democratic parliamentary elections (which probably would rule out FPTP), the Irish government missed a chance to show that in foreign policy there is no double standard going on.

by fjallstrom on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 10:03:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is rarely helpful for one government to be seen to interfere in the internal affairs of another. I can think of nothing more likely to inflame and consolidate nationalist sentiment in England than an Irish PM telling the British what to do. They are annoyed enough that Varadker isn't doing what they are telling him to do.

As for recognising Juan Guaido as President of Venezuela, I agree, we shouldn't have done it. That said, I doubt Ireland recognising him helped him unduly and was probably only done to maintain some EU solidarity  and perhaps some US Pressure. Not very edifying I agree, although I suppose you could make the argument that Venezuelan democracy is even more degraded than the UK's.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 09:57:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
an immediate change of government is required

What evidence suggests that an election would result in something other than another Tory victory, and subsequently another vote for Johnson as PM?

It's not like there haven't been dozens of opportunies to choose a different party and/or PM already...

by asdf on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 08:21:46 PM EST
Since the referendum in 2016, there has been one general election, in which the Tories got scalped, leaving May with a paper-thin majority supported by the ball-and-chain DUP.

As for the "vote for Johnson as PM", he was elected head of the Tory party by 90,000 party members, and so became PM.

Which party or parties would be able to form a government after a general election in the next few months is uncertain. But a change of government can take place with the current Parliament. Boris does not have a majority in the Commons.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 06:34:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When this happened to Nixon, even he had the decency to resign.  But de Piffle?  I rather doubt it.
by rifek on Tue Sep 24th, 2019 at 09:04:54 PM EST
Nixon got caught running a breaking-and-entering ring against his political opponents. Garden variety back-alley sort of criminal behavior. That is, apparently, easier to prosecute than abstract constitutional difficulties.

Also, it was a long time ago.

by asdf on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 03:33:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect if there were tape recordings of some Downing St. meetings available, BoJo and some of his advisors would be in the dock already...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 10:01:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Politico:
So Boris Johnson, according to 11 top U.K. judges, misled the queen and trampled on parliamentary sovereignty. Imagine, just for a second, if a Labour PM did that -- they wouldn't have survived the night. Johnson, meanwhile, is on his way back from New York City, and has declared he has no intention of resigning. Instead, he suggested at the margins of the U.N. General Assembly, in a display of his recent the-people-vs-the-elites (err, not him) rhetoric, that the ruling is the ultimate proof that fresh elections must be held.
by Bernard on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 04:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Has there been any opportunity for a competent authority to ask such a question where there are serious consequences for lying by the PM or minister? And is there any sure way to find that out short of replacing the current government by one led by a different PM?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 04:34:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He didn't get caught running the dirty tricks campaign.  His people gave him sufficient plausible deniability for that.  He got caught trying to cover it all up, and his fingerprints were all over that.  That's what the materials subpoenaed by Congress showed, that's why he stonewalled the subpoenas and took them to the SCOTUS, and that's why when the SCOTUS said he had to deliver he was done.
by rifek on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 05:49:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Guardian flow chart

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 04:41:55 AM EST
Even more ifs and question marks than previous versions of the chart.
by asdf on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 05:05:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It would be better to replace the entire chart with a giant question mark. And that's been true for at least the last year.
by IdiotSavant on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 05:13:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I just ran back to March 2019. It's tough to choose a favorite bullshitter between all the "meaningful votes".
Yvette Cooper comes close, but Corbyn's the man of the hour now.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 01:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The bill, put forward by Labour lawmaker Yvette Cooper, would force Prime Minister Theresa May to ask the EU for an extension to stop a no-deal Brexit. The measure passed by a vote of 313-312 in the lower chamber, the House of Commons.

mother of sec. 13

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 01:19:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Incomplete, supposes inertia on the part of Parliament, which, after the latest developments, would be surprising.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 06:25:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect that, tactically, Labour will wait until October 19th. to allow Boris either come back with a deal (which will split the Conservative/Brexit party vote) or without a deal, which will force him to eat his words and ask for an extension - again, which will split the Brexit Party/Conservative vote.

Having been found to have acted unlawfully once, I doubt even Boris will try it a second time and NOT ask for an extension. Again, he should resign having said he would "rather die in a ditch", and that doing so would shred what remains of his credibility. If he resigns, the Queen would probably appoint Corbyn PM.

If he doesn't resign, Parliament has no choice but to vote no confidence and vote confidence in someone else, laying bare divisions within the opposition. Realistically Corbyn holds all the cards as to who that someone else will be.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 10:15:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The "who" is being discussed right now. The SNP has signalled willingness to accept Corbyn as caretaker PM. Other discussions (how to avoid Corbyn?) throw up the name of Margaret Beckett.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 10:39:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I doubt Parliament (and the Lib Dems and some dissident Tories in particular) could agree to Corbyn as PM except in extremis with the prospect of an imminent crash-out no deal Brexit. In politics timing is everything, and we're not there yet.

All sorts of worthy alternatives will no doubt be suggested - all with the intent of avoiding a Corbyn premiership - but it matters nothing unless Corbyn agrees.

If I were Corbyn, and if I were content to let the baton of Premiership pass me by, I would insist the job went to my preferred successor - who could then hopefully go on to win the next general election.

Why give the job to some has been when you can have a profound influence on the future?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 11:50:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because, if no agreement is found for a caretaker government, game over.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 01:23:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But this is where Corbyn's reputation as a closet Brexiteer could be an asset. He could credibly affect to be happy to allow Boris run the clock down while all the Remainers panic - and then offer to step in and form a caretaker administration to request an A.50 extension and organise a second referendum.  Either they support him as PM, or Brexit goes through...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 07:45:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn's preferred successor would be as much, or more, opposed by the Lib Dems and dissident Conservatives than Corbyn himself. There would not be a parliamentary majority for him or her.

I would also like to comment on the suggestion of a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister personally rather than the government. Corbyn already tried this tactic, against Theresa May, but her government refused to allocate the motion any parliamentary time as it was not a Fixed Term Parliaments Act motion.

I suppose the opposition could try to take over the timetable to move a no confidence in Johnson motion, but even if they succeeded I suspect the Prime Minister would say that this is not a Fixed Term Parliaments Act motion of no confidence so I will ignore it.

by Gary J on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 07:04:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The point of such a motion is not to precipitate a general election but to effect a change of Prime Minister. In effect it is asking the Queen to sack Boris and appoint someone else without having to specify who that someone else might be.

Will the Queen ignore a Parliamentary motion, or will Boris refuse a request to resign from the Queen?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 11:05:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the Opposition is strong enough to take over the timetable, why bother with a VONC against the person of the PM but not the government?

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 01:09:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because a VNC in the government, per the required form in the FTPA, would, after a 14 day period with no new VOC,  trigger a new election in 25 days. So unless the existing government had sent a letter requesting an extension the UK could have crashed out before the election had occurred? It would seem safer to secure a VNC only against the existing PM, secure a VOC for a new leader and then ask the Queen to dismiss the current PM and recognize the new PM. Frank has suggested that it might be even safer just to vote no confidence in Boris and then just ask the Queen to appoint a new PM as that would avoid Parliament having to agree on a candidate.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Won't work. The Queen will appoint the leader of the party or coalition that can command a majority. It's not up to her to choose.

This government (not just this PM) does not have a majority in the House of Commons.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:55:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Where is the justice in asking the Queen to sack Corbyn, who was elected leader of Labour under the standing party rules, and who is the formal leader of the opposition?
by asdf on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 05:39:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris Corbyn, or Jeremy Johnson?

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 06:26:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, first sacking Johnson from his PM slot, and then sacking Corbyn from his PM-in-waiting slot.

I was originally thinking that the unwritten British constitution could be ok, because a problem in the US is that our constitution is too inflexible. But many of the current British problems about choosing leadership seem to go back to the haziness of the rules.

For example, if the queen is just a functionary of parliament, and required to do whatever the PM asks, as was claimed when she didn't push back on the proroguing thing, then how on Earth can she be in a position to sack anybody? "The queen must blindly and silently do whatever the PM says, up to the point where she decides fire him at will." That makes no sense.

by asdf on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 01:28:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The monarch is not a functionary of Parliament. The PM is a functionary of the Crown. That is the delightful fairy-tale principle.

The monarch is not obliged to do whatever the PM asks. Both monarch and PM operate (normally) as if they were decent, gentlemanly people. Absent that particular convention (behave like gentlemen for the common good) the whole house of cards may fall apart.

As we have just seen, the PM's advice may lead to an unlawful situation, (distending normal constitutional relations and threatening the house of cards, which of course is Johnson's intention). Arguably, had she understood all its implications, the Queen could have refused to assent to his request. After the Supreme Court ruling, we should expect anything plugged by Johnson and Rees-Mogg (President of the Privy Council therefore a chief adviser of the Queen) to be placed under rigorous scrutiny before receiving assent.

This is a situation of constitutional crisis, of which there have been several over the centuries, each one resolved by a new balance of power, up to now always in favour of increased power for the House of Commons. Johnson et al's goal is, roughly speaking, to reduce HOC power in favour of the executive (supposedly backed directly by the people).

This unprecedented situation may find an issue in a piece of statute law, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, that says a government defeated in Parliament by a VNC should be replaced by another which can command a majority within 14 days of the VNC. Unfortunately that law is vague on the obligation to resign of the disavowed government. The PM may remain in place and influence following events by the advice he gives the monarch.

To get over this hurdle, the Opposition could in this case 1. vote no confidence 2. immediately vote confidence in a new leader and government 3. address a humble petition to the Queen to call up the PM and request his resignation, then to call on the new leader to become PM.

If the Queen rejected the petition, she would be aligning herself with a Prime Minister that Parliament had just voted out, and refusing to call on the new Prime Minister that Parliament had just voted in. That would be a head-on clash between the monarch and Parliament, and the pre-eminence of Parliament is something that was settled centuries ago. Extremely unlikely to happen is an understatement.

So this could be a way of getting Johnson out, and bringing in a new PM (possibly Corbyn). I can't see any reason why the Queen should then ask Corbyn to resign?  

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 02:49:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
reduce HOC power in favour of the executive (supposedly backed directly by the people).

A main tenet of Fascism.  From the wikipedia article on Führerprinzip:

Hermann von Keyserling, an ethnically German philosopher from Estonia, was the first to use the term. One of Keyserling's central claims was that certain "gifted individuals" were "born to rule" on the basis of Social Darwinism.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:02:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What was Mussolini's vision version?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 04:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pretty much ditto


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 08:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Was it a group assignment?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 09:06:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One nation Tories' 'sense of doom' over Boris Johnson tactics

One nation Conservative MPs are privately feeling "a real sense of doom" about Boris Johnson's tactics, with speculation growing over whether he could be removed and replaced by someone else if he fails to get a deal.

While Eurosceptics are rallying round their leader, Conservative MPs on the liberal centrist wing of the party expressed frustration about Johnson's missteps and what they see as a betrayal of his promises to govern as a one nation prime minister. In an attempt to win their support, he had told them he did not favour "arcane procedures" like prorogation.

They are particularly furious about Johnson's communications strategy, in which a moderate official line that the prime minister will abide by the law is undermined by "government source" quotes suggesting he will seek to circumvent it and refuse to ask for a Brexit delay.

ITV cited one of the government sources saying Johnson would obey the law but: "That is NOT the same as `the PM will ask for a delay'! HOW we comply with the Benn Act is the real question, and also what would be in our SECOND letter."


According to the Telegraph in May of '19 there were over 60 one nation tories. More than 20 left the party over their refusal to vote for a no deal Brexit. How many of those remaining in the Conservative Party would vote to remove Boris as PM?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 02:39:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
current lede: Guardian flow chart, 25 Sep

archived: euractiv | handout, 5 Sep

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 08:35:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was going to gloat that Labour got to have their annual congress, and the Tories miss theirs.

But a big bust-up between Boris's bunch and the rest (not only remainers, but Brexiters in favour of the rule of law) had huge Entertainment potential.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 10:00:54 AM EST
Although the media coverage of the Labour conference was all about divisions, I actually thought Corbyn's performance was very impressive. He faced down a threat to his deputy leader - which, had it succeeded, might have precipitated a further wave of MPs leaving the party. His speech, which again, I thought was impressive, was ecstatically received by the conference.

And Corbyn has slowly moved his position to emphatically supporting a second referendum - which I agree is the only way to reverse the result of the first. The question of how he campaigns during that referendum is a matter for another day when the options available have been clarified.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 10:22:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As another commenter noted: You always get a division narrative when you combine a hostile media and an actual process to arrive at positions compared to a polit-buro like governing style. That is the price you have to pay for empowering the party left.
by generic on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 01:27:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most political parties are far from democratic. In general, the more successful, the less democratic. That's their dirty little secret. UKLP has improved in that direction in recent years, but indeed, the price is airing the dirty laundry in public.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 02:35:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the MSM reports were all about the Remainers' pressure via resolutions - which ended up in the dustbin.

Here and there - including in The Guardian - there were small articles about some of the workshops at the conference, where actual policies were discussed and resolved. The reports generally indicated good agreement on the real import of Corbyn's crew - social, anti-austerity programs.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 04:40:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From today's Guardian it appears that the Remain de facto alliance may well deny Boris any recess for a conservative congress and just make conservative MPs run back and forth between Manchester and Westminster during the process. Complain as they might, it will be a clown show. The Remain alliance could always make agreement to a recess for the Conservative Convention contingent on having either negotiated an exit plan that will pass Parliament or having delivered a request for an extension. They could always reply to criticism by saying that, had the time during the unlawful prorogation not been lost, this would not have been necessary.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 09:08:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well, that would be a lie, wouldn't it.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 25th, 2019 at 09:29:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Shucks.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 07:01:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's now clear, after yesterday's insults, that Boris is not just brazening it out, he is in full-bore fascist provocation mode. His intention is evidently to foment an uprising of those who (are increasingly being manipulated to) believe that they and they alone are "the people".

I don't believe Brexit is any more than a baby's rattle to be waved at this juncture. Sure, they have to have Brexit to get free of EU constraints (though there are Hungary, Poland to ponder...). But the game is broader in intent. It is to destroy Parliament, discredit the judiciary, and set up long-term ultra-right executive power.

Reading reports of yesterday's Boris bluster, Steve Bannon is said to have had several orgasms.

The only consolation (haha) is that Corbyn will not play fairy godmother and grant Bojo's wish for an immediate general election. But this does mean that Johnson will be trolling in full spate during the weeks ahead.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 06:34:00 AM EST
From Brendan Cox, widower of Jo Cox MP, murdered by a Leave fanatic, whose memory was, let's say, slighted by Johnson yesterday:

"I was genuinely shocked by the the willingness to descend to vitriol, because I think it does long lasting harm. To have this debate descend into this bear pit of polarisation, I think it's dangerous for our country."

There is a willingness to jump out and decry the other side when they use language like `surrender' or `traitor' or `betrayal'. And I think that is inflammatory language. But as inflammatory are those people who have used the language of it being a `coup' and `dictatorship' and `fascism'.

I think both of those approaches are unacceptable. It is not just bad behaviour by one side of the debate. This is something which is infected our politics, and it's this vicious cycle where language gets more extreme, response gets more extreme, it all gets hyped up ... It creates an atmosphere where I think violence and attacks are more likely.

You can disagree passionately with people. But you don't have to impugn their motives, whether you are a hard Brexiteer or a hard remainer, actually, what you have in common is a desire to do what you think is best for the country.

What isn't acceptable is to demonize each other to build a culture of hatred to the other to create this tribal identity. Whatever happens with Brexit, the country is going to have to come together again. And we have to remember that, otherwise, we'll be building a toxic legacy.

He's right, but it's not just about language (and "sloppy" is a sloppy epithet to describe yesterday's rhetoric). Johnson-Cummings-Rees-Mogg are deliberately setting out to weaken Parliament and, while paying lip service to it, the judiciary too. As for the toxic legacy, well, it's already there.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 06:59:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Demonization is an integral part of the "mainstream" right playbook now.
by Bernard on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 07:46:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And not only in the UK.  Trump is claiming "Presidential Harassment" by being compelled  to follow the law.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 03:17:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not exactly.

You may recall as fondly as I sudden, EXPLOSIVE interest in innerboob legal analysis, catalyzed by the Panic of '08. And, of course, US Americans obey the spirit of civil rights laws, if not letter annually memorialized by the SOTU address since, gosh, forever.

Right?

Although I haven't encountered that particular locution from de basement of intrigues, I believe that you and I can agree that the yella sheets and speaker of the House have berated the POTUS administration's flouting NORMS and litigation to COMPEL judicial review of US Constitutional provisions and US statutes and US case law.

It's this prerogative UNDER THE LAW, from which the POTUS is not excluded, that offends some people. Traumatized people. People in a hurry. People who ...hold up your favorite stat again, angels and dinosaurs or something... are unfamiliar with the elephant in politics, so to speak.

A similar dilemma informs controversy in the UK --disjunctive, or dissociative, "convention", case law, and statute.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 04:42:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris Johnson suffers another defeat as government motion for a mini recess next week is lost by 306 votes to 289
-  Politics live with Andrew Sparrow, Guardian

How the 21 Tories who lost whip over Brexit voted on conference recess

The government motion saying the conference recess should go ahead next week was backed by 275 Conservative MPs, nine DUP MPs and five independents. Three of them were Tories who lost the whip after rebelling over Brexit earlier this month (Steve Brine, Greg Clark and Caroline Nokes), another was the Tory Charlie Elphicke, who is suspended over a court case, and the other was the former Labour MP Ian Austin.

Fifteen independent MPs joined the opposition parties and voted against the government. They included seven of the 21 Tories who had the whip withdrawn over Brexit earlier this month: Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, David Gauke, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Anne Milton and Antoinette Sandbach. Another was Amber Rudd, who resigned the whip herself in solidarity with the 21.

Another 10 of the 21 who lost the whip did not vote. They were Richard Benyon, Alistair Burt, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, Margot James, Sir Oliver Letwin, Sir Nicholas Soames, Rory Stewart and Ed Vaizey.

The other member the group of 21 rebels was Sam Gyimah. He is now a Liberal Democrat, and voted against the motion with his new party.

Politics live with Andrew Sparrow, Guardian

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 06:47:37 PM EST
So. When is the NCV scheduled?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 07:28:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Per Corbyn, not until a no-deal Brexit has been precluded by the UK receiving an extension of the Brexit deadline. Other than that, ambiguity.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 09:21:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Am I to understand, HoC vote against Tory motion to recess is insufficient proof of concept ("unity") to carry NCV successfully to change of government?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Sep 26th, 2019 at 09:41:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
First an agreement has to be reached on leadership and composition of new government, also timing of non-con vote.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 06:23:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First?

Hold on. The "agreement" of which you speak introduces a proposition outside acts of parliament. That is negotiation among multiple individuals beside HRM's Opposition d/b/a Labour Party to form a coalition of MPs who will rely upon each other first to effect change in the government. Although controversy about Corbyn's ability to conclude such negotiation (before or after HRM BoJo's defeat) is ripe in the presses, terms of this hypothetical "confidence-and-supply" agreement between diverse MPs who demonstrated sympathy in the recess vote are otherwise unknown to the public. That is, minority parties' policy priorities other than "no-deal BREXIT" are indeterminate; such agreements "normally" come into being following majoritarian ascension to government by one party according to, oops, electoral "decision" of parliament or public.

Eurotrib has been treated to lively discourse on Fixed-terms Parliament Act (2011) procedure and HRM's opposition strategy to succeed the current government either
(i) resignation of "government" by uncertain "convention" such as the shame of a PM in order to petition for HRM appointment of PM, or commission of "caretaker" a/k/a "unity" a/k/a  confidence-and-supply government; or election:
(ii) "a motion in the form set out in subsection (1); or
(iii) "a motion in the form set out in subsection (3).

Which would Lady Hale prefer?


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 02:37:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. Resignation by PM is not provided in the Fixed-term Parliament Act, as you know.

  2. Is that advice unlawful?

  3. Little-known Fact: Baltimore city charter also provides no democratic process --by city council or constituency-- to remove the "executive". However, the mayor --under SCRUTINY of the governor and US DOJ-- was persuaded by her lawyers to resign, and she was automatically succeeded by the city council's president. The US Constitution provides similar rules of officer succession. Does the UK "constitution"?


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 02:53:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What I am suggesting (politicians and their parties discussing working together to produce a desired result) is simply what is known as politics.

There is no obligation, during the life of a Parliament, to proceed to a general election in order to provide a change of government. Neither is there any prohibition of coalitions between parties.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, Nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:02:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
alrighty then. "BREXIT delay law" carries the day!

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Sep 27th, 2019 at 03:05:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris Johnson could face confidence vote next week
abuse of an adverb, self-evidently

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 02:38:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
NEW SCRIPT! Places everyone!

MPs have a democratic obligation to bring Johnson down, and bring him down now

The advice reads: "The House of Commons has more than one mechanism available to it by which it could identify an individual in whom it had confidence and communicate that view to the Queen... Those mechanisms are available, both when parliament is in session, by means of a humble address, and when it is not.

"If a majority of members of the House of Commons were to clearly identify an individual in whom the House has confidence, the Queen would invite that individual to form a new government." The process "is governed by convention [!] and those conventions will apply equally whether or not parliament has passed a no confidence vote in the government, pursuant to s. 2 FTPA."

The consequence is that MPs could have, in effect, a free hit at replacing Johnson. Or even two free hits--first, asking whether there might be a majority for Corbyn and, if not, second, whether there might be a majority for someone else. And if there has been no vote of no confidence under the FTPA then there is no risk of a general election if MPs cannot cohere around an alternative. ...

oh ho! simple majority knock at the door versus 2/3 stretch goooooooalllll
We need to reform parliamentary procedure--including that governing the suspension of parliament without its consent. We need to rethink our electoral laws which--as matters stand--meaningfully penalise only the compliant. We should revisit the FTPA. We must take up Lord Hennessy's idea of a constitutional convention [!].

An emergency government that spent six months pursuing a programme of constitutional reform at home and working to cure our Brexit-ills with a public conversation might be something around which MPs could cohere. It might take the heat out of our politics--and arrest an alarming national decline.

And there is no reason not to try. Because that which MPs have feared--a general election--they need not.

'UK twitter law'



Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Sep 30th, 2019 at 12:27:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nicola Sturgeon 'open to Corbyn' as interim prime minister
Scotland's first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has said she is open-minded about Jeremy Corbyn becoming an interim prime minister as her representative in Westminster said the Scottish National party is now "desperate" for an election.

Sturgeon said she was not personally pushing for Corbyn to lead the country as a unity figure, but he could be an interim prime minister to secure an extension to Brexit and then call a general election.

She told BBC Scotland: "We are all going to have to compromise, we are all going to have to swallow our pride and put up with something for a matter of days to allow that to happen, and get on with it."



"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Sep 28th, 2019 at 12:10:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is ironic that the two things most feared in all this are two temporary arrangements that will be over-ridden as soon as suitable permanent agreements can be reached, which everybody says can and must and will be reached.

  • The backstop is a backstop in case other arrangements about Ireland can't be agreed, but everybody agrees that they can and must and will be reached. Thus the backstop should not be any problem. It's temporary.

  • Corbyn as PM is a holding measure until other arrangements can be made, and everybody agrees that they can and must and will be made. Thus Corbyn being PM should not be any problem. It's temporary.

But because of those two temporary considerations, the entire British political system is in chaos.
by asdf on Sat Sep 28th, 2019 at 04:02:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
UK acquired de facto third-country status viz. the EU on 29 March 2019 by having failed any negotiated withdrawal agreement with EU per A.50(3). "A.50(3) period" extension is a temporary remedy to (injunction, interdict, stay of) de jure UK third-country status. UK recourse to TEU is dependent on EU agreement to extension of the "A.50(3) period" or on UK revoking A.50(2) instead of approving the negotiated WA.

Were parliament to approve the WA, the WA is time limited, not permanent. On the exit date 31 Dec 2020 UK acquires third-country status.

EU public statements deny any intention to agree another WA, Ireland Protocol inclusive. Therefore, the basis of EU-UK negotiation currently is UK exit strategy demonstrating the extent of UK compliance with existing EURLEX regulation and implementation.

"can": EU public statements confirm willingness to  review UK exit strategy. UK parliament can approve the negotiated WA. UK can proffer consideration of customs plans and implementation for EU extension of "A.50(3) period". UK cannot proffer consideration of an customs regime without approval by UK parliament.

UK cannot effect unilateral approval of any "A.50(3) period". UK cannot decline agreement to any "A.50(3) period" without parliamentary approval. EU can decline agreement of "A.50(3) period" for any reason.

"must": UK and EU negotiated agreements must conform to TEU, VCLT, and GFA terms of contracting parties. EU public statements confirm that UK exit strategy must satisfy minimum obligations of GFA signatories in perpetuity. UK may not erect barriers to movement of goods, capital, and people between NI and IE.
--
Because Corbyn cannot or may not guarantee UK agreement with the WA or any EU regulation for any period of time without approval of parliament, his political status --like May's and Johnson's-- is irrelevant to EU decision to (dis)continue "A.50 period". UK and EU horizons diverged 29 Mar 2019.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 01:32:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EU can decline agreement of "A.50(3) period" for any reason.

Sure, the EU can refuse to approve a future agreement. And the Uk can refuse to approve a future agreement. In both cases, the UK reverts to third country status. But "everybody" says that a future agreement can be reached.

Seems to me that the UK refusing a WA with a backstop is equivalent to the UK saying that a suitable future agreement cannot actually be reached, in which case it might as well be a no-agreement withdrawal right now.

by asdf on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 01:47:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
UK refusing a WA with a backstop is equivalent to the UK saying that a suitable future agreement cannot actually be reached
The WA is the "backstop" to "no deal" crash, hard landing, cliff edge "accident", wtf. A 21-month Safe Space (financial "certainty) to iron out incompetence and clear political hurdles to EU trade in force for permanent exit date.

Guardian poll smoke FWIW perception. Both Con and Lab are running to exit. doh. It's obvious tho' why UK ELECTION 2020 IS A TRAP! with or without the SCHEDULE FORM LETTER.

c'mon

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:05:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Michel Barnier: Boris Johnson's behaviour has `limited the chance' of a Brexit deal
The EU is now concerned that any concession it could make would be wasted on such an unstable government, which has burned any political goodwill by deploying the language of betrayal and surrender when talking of those who oppose a no-deal Brexit.
read: sympathy for Remainers referendum 2.0, sympathy for Agile® customs dev, but mostly EU approval of "A.50(3) period" extension based on UK parliament approval of WA which is not going to happen

Might as well leave UK to it, meet up on the other side for basic ETA.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:28:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

by Bernard on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 01:23:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Possibly the funniest letters ever
by asdf on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:58:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
are you mental? As we mentioned in previous letters to you and your predecessors, we believe that the Withdrawal Agreement is the best way to protect citizens and businesses. Every issue raised in your letter-from trade in goods to citizens' rights and data flows-has already been addressed comprehensively in the Withdrawal Agreement. There is no other way to achieve all the benefits that the Withdrawal Agreement provides....

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 04:10:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OpEd | Johnson is desperate for an election. So why would his Opponents give him one?
Denis MacShane is the UK's former Minister of Europe, and a former Labour MP.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 01:58:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is my opinion also:
Holding an election solves little. Johnson may win or as the UK's leading poll guru Sir John Curtice points out a more likely outcome is another hung parliament. Johnson and any other minority government prime minister would go to Brussels unable to put anything through the Commons.

The EU settled policy of not accepting British access to the Single Market without respect for its laws and of defending peace in Ireland would not change just because the UK held an election.

Far better would be to insist that the British people are asked again sometime during the next six months. There are so many new facts, new voters, and a new understanding of what Brexit entails. There were 52 million voting age citizens in June 2016. 17.4 million voted for Brexit. 34.6 million did not. They cannot be written out of democracy.


To properly stake The Vampire Boris Parliament must form a new government well before October 31, seek and obtain an extension, call a second referendum and campaign so that the public knows the consequences. If the second referendum is for Remain then withdraw the Article 50 Letter and hold new elections at an appropriate time.

If the second referendum is for Leave then at least it will have been an informed decision and there will be time to negotiate a forthcoming Brexit on the best terms available, even if that is May's deal. Then hold new elections. The danger still remains that careerists might scuttle a new election so as to hold on to office as long as possible.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 03:00:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK don't want to concede on open border now as they want to use it as bargaining chip in fta negotiations later. Basically they think they ca the get full access to single market without costs of eu membership and restrictions on ability to restrict immigration. Eu will be accused of causing hard border in Ireland if it doesn't agree to full access

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 01:17:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The GFA to which the UK is a contracting party is non-negotiable. EU and EP public statements express institutional reasoning of responsibility for NI-EI barriers should if these materialize after 'a no-deal departure' by UK.

So.

What else, what consideration or things of value, will UK offer for an ETA besides human hostages? I couldn't tell you. I might have mentioned more than once.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 29th, 2019 at 04:26:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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