Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Brexit Day

by Frank Schnittger Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 12:25:42 AM EST

It is with very mixed feelings that I approach Brexit day. On the one hand I have argued strenuously and at length that Brexit is in the interests of neither the UK nor the EU, and plays into the hands of ultra-nationalists, disaster capitalists, global corporations, and great power imperialists. On the other hand I have tired of the seemingly perpetual whingeing, prevarication, lying, and sheer incompetence of successive UK administrations and their oppositions.

From a purely practical point of view, it is reasonable to hope that the EU institutions will operate more coherently, cohesively and efficiently without the continual disruptions caused by UK participation. The loss of 73 mostly far right and often disruptive UK MEPs will be no loss at all. It his high time the EU focused on other priorities and for Brexit and Brexiteers to leave the stage.

Although EU Chief negotiator Barnier and Trade Commissioner Hogan will continue to be centrally involved in UK EU trade negotiations, I expect that issue will gradually decline in the list of EU priorities and the UK's baneful influence on EU foreign policy will also diminish. A lot still depends on whether President Trump is re-elected, or not, but it is relations and trade with the US, China, Russia and third world countries that will gradually come to dominate the EU agenda.


The script for the next 12 months has probably already been written. The EU will offer the UK a Canada++ trade deal where the ++ will be represented by continued close security and foreign policy cooperation. The UK will want more or less everything it has now without the costs and compromises entailed by membership. Expectations will be so far apart no deal is possible. There will be the usual cliff hanging stuff and last minute overnight negotiations. We will probably end up with Canada+++ where the extra plus is a joint commitment to keep talking about further cooperation after the signing of an initial agreement.

Or perhaps not. It is just as likely that Boris Johnson will walk away in a huff or that the UK Parliament will reject any deal that is negotiated, with the government defeated by the ultras who want "a clean break" and the moderates who think the deal falls far short of the benefits the UK had as a member. There will be many on the EU side that believe a period of no deal might be just what is needed to "soften the UK's cough" and a allow more realistic expectations to develop.

But if there is a breakdown in negotiations it is just as likely that it will lead to an ever widening rift rather than a gradual convergence of negotiating positions. If the UK fails to honour the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement - already ratified by both parties - then all bets are off for any new negotiations or positive future relationship. A trade war could very well develop. People will become entrenched and embittered on both sides and the UK tabloids will lead the charge.

The UK will slide into a slow decline - very much reminiscent of the post imperial decline after WWII until the UK joined the EU in 1973 - but it will never be able to admit that Brexit was a mistake. People will double down on their new isolationism, and nationalistic fervour and populist hysteria will be the order of the day. But most people in the EU will hardly notice. They will have their own internal issues to address and other fish to fry. The EU hasn't exactly been an economic dynamo in recent years in any case, but the UK leaving will make little difference.

Except perhaps in Ireland. Unionists are painfully aware that the Withdrawal Agreement represents a betrayal by England and an historic defeat for them. They are almost resigned to becoming more and more a part of an economic united Ireland. Many will go with the flow and make the most of the opportunities presented by having good access to both the UK and EU markets. Some will retreat into sullen resentment and irrational displays of political obtuseness. A very few might take to provocative acts of violence which will be duly criminalised. Again, very few people within the EU will notice.

It will probably take a very long time for political events to catch up with economic realities. EU cooperation and integration will slowly deepen and Eastern European member states will grow in economic performance and political influence. A new generation will take the benefits of the the EU very much for granted. The UK will continue to imagine itself a global player and find it difficult to comprehend why the EU will not deal with it as an equal partner, even with its "ally", the USA, on its side. The US will continue to try to shore up its declining dominance by military adventurism.

Global warming, global corporate tax avoidance, heavy handed diplomacy and crude military interventions will become dominant trends which only concerted actions by coherent power blocs like the EU can deal with effectively - or at least more effectively than its constituent parts could do acting alone. The logic of small and medium size countries pooling sovereignty in order to meet global challenges more effectively will become ever more compelling.

But it will all probably be too little, too late. Without effective political cooperation on a global scale global warming will spin out of control, global corporations will run amok becoming de facto governments of whole regions, the rich will get richer and the poor will end up fighting the poor for scraps from the rich man's table. That is the reality of the political dynamics unleashed, in part, by Trump and Brexit. Today is but a milestone on that journey, but it is nevertheless a sad day.

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Without effective political cooperation on a global scale global warming will spin out of control, global corporations will run amok becoming de facto governments of whole regions, the rich will get richer and the poor will end up fighting the poor for scraps from the rich man's table. That is the reality of the political dynamics unleashed, in part, by Trump and Brexit.

Trump and Brexit = politics on behalf of rich men. Who are now filthy, stinking rich. And can plan their Randian future of private islands and super-yachts and GM offspring, big profits and no tax, just as long as there is no effective political cooperation on a global scale. The UN and its subsections are already toothless, expect attacks to redouble until the UN crumbles. The EU will not cease to be under attack, from the US and the Anglosphere (along "evil empire" lines), from Russian "irredentism" wrt its former zone of influence (Eastern and Central European countries are far from being assured of a comfortable ride to security and prosperity).

If the EU is to survive and continue to exercise soft power, it will have to mightily up its game. Which means that Germany will have to decide if it wants the EU or if it doesn't. Merkel wanted the EU, though she would never envisage the measures that were needed to make the EU more harmonious and therefore strong (not that transferring a few points of trade surplus towards better incomes across the board within Germany would have been such an unmöglich sacrifice). Who will replace her, with (manipulated and manipulatory) nationalist populism on the rise?

"Brexit" is the tacky political advertising brand name for the politics of ultra-rich authoritarian libertarians (not a contradiction in terms: I am totally free, you are not). The game that works for them is releasing resentment in entire populations that their own enrichment has contributed to impoverish. At the moment, it's a winning game. If the EU is to remain and succeed, there's a long, hard slog ahead.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 08:23:41 AM EST
"Trump and Brexit = politics on behalf of rich men."

Good grief. The woke middle class really is full of itself!

Haven't you noticed how the working class vote these days? Do you honestly believe YOU are on the side of "the workers" anymore?

That's what happened to Labour in the UK and hopefully what will happen to the Democrats in the USA.

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sapere aude

by Number 6 on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 09:29:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Obtaining the votes of a class of people that feel disinherited and hopeless by means of lies, manipulation, and demagogy hardly counts as supporting the "working class", does it? Or maybe it does in your book.

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 10:08:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So they are stupid? They don't know what they want? But you know what's best for them?

We've been hearing this from the middle class since Marx ... or possibly since Roman times.

Try to accept the possibility that people understand the options and vote for what they want.

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sapere aude

by Number 6 on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 10:34:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
https:/www.spiked-online.com/2020/01/28/terry-christian-the-true-face-of-remoaner-bigotry
"It is these prejudices against the `low-information' and `soon-to-be-dead' voters that prevented Remainers from seeing Leave voters as their democratic equals, allowing them to wage an all-out war on democracy without any semblance of guilt."


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sapere aude
by Number 6 on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 10:54:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Either people are always voting in their best interest, and to suggest otherwise is insulting, or they are not.

If they are, that means that they were also voting in their best interest when they chose the other way.

If they are not, then the arguments advanced in the election campaign can be compared with the outcomes and likely outcomes of the policies enacted.

I think the second way of looking at things is the correct one. That does imply that people can be tricked, but also that the real input from the demos is quite limited in these democracies of ours.

by fjallstrom on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 10:57:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Try to accept the possibility that they are misled about the options.

And please stop whittering about the "middle class". Are you "working class"? In what way?

Personally, I am only "middle class" by the education I was fortunate to receive in the postwar years when public policy was more favourable to the lower classes than it is today.

And excuse me, but for someone who is apparently celebrating today, you seem unaccountably angry. Why is that?

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 11:06:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
AFAIK more people voted for parties supporting remain/second referendum than voted for parties support Brexit, so it is the antiquated FPTP single seat constituency system which "manipulated" the result.

Also I have no difficulty in admitting the Brexit side were better financed, organised and led. They had a clear and simple message, much better populist leaders, and split the vote less. Labour and the Lib Dems simply had to work together on a common platform or all was lost, and so it transpired. Once Farage stood aside for Boris it was all over bar the shouting.

The wonder is that with such poor leadership on the Corbyn/Swinson front, that the Conservatives did not win by more.

But no one is disputing the electoral result now. At issue are different views of the consequences. Boris promises the "sunny uplands" of a revitalised UK. My belief, and the belief of most Remainers is that the long term consequences will be negative. We shall see who is proved right, and it doesn't matter whether you style yourself as working or middle class..

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 11:55:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Cheer up, it may never happen!

"How Brexit shattered progressives' dearest illusions"
https://theweek.com/articles/632380/how-brexit-shattered-progressives-dearest-illusions
"A faith has been shaken, illusions shattered, pieties punctured. This is what happens when a life-orienting system of belief gets smashed on the rocks of history.
[...]
It would be one thing if progressives understood their universalistic moral and political convictions to constitute one legitimate partisan position among many. But they don't understand them in this way. They believe not only that their views deserve to prevail in the fullness of time, but also that they are bound to prevail."


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sapere aude

by Number 6 on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 09:24:53 AM EST
I can't speak for anyone else here, but I am well aware that my political views are one amongst a range of legitimate/rational/defensible options.

Also Brexit didn't shatter any illusions on my part - it confirmed my worst fears - I have been expecting a hard Brexit since day one, followed, in all probability by a trade war and a lot of other hostility between England and the EU, getting worse over a long period of time, and perhaps never getting any better.

If there are still historians around in 100 years time, they may be looking at the period of the UK's membership of the EU as a high point in its history, much to be preferred to the devastation wrought by wars, societal breakdown and climate change. YMMV. Good luck to you. I used to work in the UK and still have many friends there. I have absolutely no reason to wish you and them any harm, but look forward to the day you can no longer blame us in the EU for all your ills.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 12:07:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank: look forward to the day you can no longer blame us in the EU for all your ills.

Brexiters will always blame the EU. Always. Especially after a long and strenuous negotiation where the EU doesn't let the worthy Britons have their cake and eat it.

As I have written before, I fully expect the rhetoric to be increasingly aggressive and violent. The EU not giving to Britain's "reasonable proposals" will be the new Continental blocus, EU leaders equated to Napoleon and Hitler, Boris Johnson increasingly projecting himself as Winston Churchill's second coming. History abundantly shows that a fascist regime needs an external enemy to channel the populace's anger away from their worthy leaders.

by Bernard on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 04:12:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think we can be too sensitive about this. Of course Brexiteers will need someone else to blame but half way sane Britons will know the EU is now under no obligation to give the UK anything.

International trade negotiations are about bargaining and trade-offs, where both sides try to maximise their common interests and where the balance of power/market size matters.

In any case the Brexiteer ultras want a "clean break" whatever that is. It certainly cannot be construed as constituting an obligation on the EU to do anything other than maximising its own interests.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 04:33:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would presuppose logic. And common sense.
by Bernard on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 09:09:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frankly, what many of the British people think - or what the tabloids tell them to think - doesn't matter any more, s far as the EU is concerned. That is the essence of losing power, which is what Brexit, in part, actually means.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 09:46:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here in the US, Rethuglicans are still blaming Obama and Bill Clinton for everything up to and including the crucifixion of Jesus, and their base just gobbles it up with a big spoon.
by rifek on Fri Feb 7th, 2020 at 05:52:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you can team up with people like Guy to make a positive change:
https://twitter.com/truckerworld/status/1222561917790773249

Seriously.
Good luck with that guy on your side. :(

"Free at last, free at last, thank God almighty, we're free at last."

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sapere aude

by Number 6 on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 09:26:50 AM EST
Welcome to the world of the free! 😎 ...$$$ ... the 1% that is 🐘

Your leader Putin - Netanyahu - Bolsonaro - Xi Ping - Trump - BoJo ...

How dare you use the words of a leader of the oppressed!


Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 10:44:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"The Oppressed" voted Leave.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2016/jun/24/the-areas-and-demographics-where-the-brexit-vo te-was-won

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sapere aude
by Number 6 on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 11:02:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep ... like Moses leading the Isrealites for a 40 year wait in the desert so G*d can bestow on them manna from heaven (trickle down), the 10 Commandments and the ideal of a Promised Land.

History repeating itself as the Israelites worshiped a false god (Trump) in a shining Golden Calf (wealth of the 0.1% or pure Capitalism) ... beyond reach of you and me, the well educated and labourers working 2 or 3 jobs to reach a decent wage.

Today's Israel and the shining City on the Hill are symbols of racism, xenophobia, corruption as seldom seen in history of mankind. The Axis of Evil of Chaos and Wars. Sets aside Human Rights (torture, indefinite detention, assassinations), multilateralism, Four Freedoms and real opportunity to develop tone's God given talent through education.

It's as simple as making the right choices in a more complex world of falsehoods, forgeries and Internet theft of your individual Freedom.

Welcome to 1984, Planet Earth's worst nightmare to survive in the 21st Century.

Neo-colonialism through neocon policymakers in the "New World" ...

"Freedom" my a$$ ... exploitation of the weak and citizens fallen by the wayside ... universal healthcare is a Human Right ... thank God we are blessed in a united Europe ... still building a future without wars!

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 12:09:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Worthwhile to remind today's suffering of minorities is quite similar to circumstances of America in the Sixties. Inequality is a persistent evil. Racism has evolved to Xenophobia and Islamophobia. The Jewish people stood side by side with the American negroes in the Civil Rights movement. In the 21st Century, the State of Israel has crossed the rubicon and propagates on the side of rightwing Islamophobia, an evil doctrine the Jewish religion and culture unworthy.

The voices of wisdom and peace have been silenced, hopefully not forever!

My new diary to put the Brexit in perspective from old shackles to new shackles of capitalism, not offering "freedom at last" from a bureaucratic EU.

ON FREEDOM (1963)

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 06:45:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
@guyverhofstadt as the new Hitler? Seriously? We'll see how well little England works out for you...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 10:45:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I never mentioned or implied Hitler.
Says more about me than you.

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sapere aude
by Number 6 on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 10:46:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The comparison was made in the twitter stream you linked to...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 12:09:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What fun it is to be back with the stock retorts and jibes from usenet discussion groups!

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 12:27:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hitler just about disappeared after 9-11 in the US, although he's made a comeback since 2016.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 11:32:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Loyalists on Brexit: `A one-way route to an economic united Ireland'A `neglected and pushed' loyalist community feels `totally betrayed' by Boris Johnson
Loyalists oppose a trade border in the Irish Sea, the compromise agreed by British prime minister Boris Johnson and the EU in October that paves the way for the UK's orderly departure from the EU on Friday.

Loyalists see the new border in symbolic terms as eroding their political identity as unionists and British subjects of the crown.

They see the new customs and regulatory frontier on the Irish Sea not as London, Dublin and Brussels see it - a compromise to avoid a hard Irish land Border that could have sparked republican anger and potentially violence - but as a step to Irish economic unity.

For this they blame Johnson, who vowed at the DUP conference in 2018 not to create any economic barriers in the Irish Sea. Their anger is not helped by the confused messages from Johnson and UK officials about the checks required on goods moving between the North and Britain after Brexit.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 01:06:45 PM EST
I'll be very surprised if Trump is re-elected.  He has lost suburban white women, as evidenced by the 2018 Midterms, the demographic that won him the '16 election.

As far as Brexit ....

I expect companies to start fleeing the UK now that the Thing Is Done.  It is a no-brainer to go for a $16 trillion, 320 million people, market over a declining $1 trillion and 80 million people market.  For financial services, etc., it is a trade-off between a US$80.27 trillion global economy versus a declining $1 trillion.

Rees-Moog knows this.  He's already moved his financial company to Ireland.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 04:17:54 PM EST
The problem is that the likely Democratic candidates - Biden, Warren, Sanders are Septuagenarians and hardly likely to be inspiring to a younger electorate. Also the Democrats have a penchant for not being able to united around any one candidate. Your optimism is not widely shared amongst Democrats. Incumbency has its advantages... expect an October surprise. War on Iran, anyone?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 04:43:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The October Surprise meme reached its Sell-By date a long, long, time ago.

This is in danger of highjacking your diary so I shut-up now.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 05:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Motion to call witnesses to the senate impeachment trial defeated, 49-51 NAYE. Recessed immediately, subject to the call of the chair (McConnell).

Senate majority is pretty sure of itself going into election 2020, with or without Trump.

Be that as it may or not, the "opposition" party's greatest problem remains control of the senate. Sanders' cross-over appeal into "suburban women" faction must emerge after Super Tuesday and his nomination be blessed by DNC, which seems to be doing everything in its power to sabotage it or at least disguise the superdelegates' convention ballots. In which case, 4 more years of "suburban women" backbiting over lunch will eclipse Trump's re-election

by Cat on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 11:08:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like the impeachment goes nowhere, so no wagging the dog.

The incumbency of Trump brings along optimism and arrogance before the election ... no war with Iran, Trump's campaign promise to end all ME wars.

I hope for a Carter moment, always tough to win a 2nd term against all odds, losing the female vote.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 05:14:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The last two Presidents to fail in a re-election bid - Carter and Bush snr.-  both failed because the economy failed (and a third candidate split the Republican vote in the case of Bush).

The chances of the economy cratering sufficiently between now and November are probably low. The Dems best chance of winning if another Republican (Romney?) splits the Republican vote again.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 31st, 2020 at 06:23:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Biden, Warren, Sanders are Septuagenarians and hardly likely to be inspiring to a younger electorate."

I think this is an incorrect interpretation of what is going on. The democratic youth vote is strongly in the Sanders camp. Warren is impressive on the "has well figured out plans" and "plays well with others" metrics, and is a Baby Boomer.

The big problem is Biden. If he is nominated, the youth vote will stick with Bernie and it will be 2000, 2004, and 2016 all over again. Unfortunately, the DNC is captured by the Biden/Clinton camp.

by asdf on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 01:03:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bernie is the only leftist running, so he's quite popular with young voters. Until AOC's generation starts running (maybe even next cycle) he's the only one running what amounts to an inspirational campaign. We don't have any charismatic orators on the left, and I don't think there are any on the right either.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 11:45:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Never underestimate two things: 1) the deliberate incompetence of the DLC/DNC, and 2) the power of officially sanctioned election fraud.
by rifek on Fri Feb 7th, 2020 at 05:55:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hanlon's razor

An axiom that precludes any assumption of premeditation such as strategy and enmity such malice concluding in harm to oneself or others. Why is that?

by Cat on Fri Feb 7th, 2020 at 06:24:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll just leave this here:
https://i.imgur.com/P3iT6qB.mp4
by generic on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 12:55:30 AM EST
"The UK will slide into a slow decline - very much reminiscent of the post imperial decline after WWII..."

More likely it will be a steep collapse. Nissan is in the process of collapsing on its own even without Brexit pressure. American chlorine chicken and GM corn is on the way, regardless of what the British consumers want. London financial houses will bail out when the EU notices the incongruity of offshore banking. The fishermen are going to be very unhappy. China is going to try to move in, example: Huawei.

Question is whether the collapse will be within the 11 month negotiating window. If in August the economy is in the dumpster, BoJo will have no negotiating leverage with the EU, the US, or China.

by asdf on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 01:08:17 AM EST
Brexit will not change the terms of trade until 1/1/21 when WTO tariffs and cross border checks and paperwork will kick in absent an FTA and agreement to maintain regulatory alignment.

Before that any business failures are not necessarily linked to Brexit in any very direct way. Of course there could be the "confidence faery" effect of businesses cutting investment and re-locating parts of their business to the EU in the expectation of tariff and no-tariff barriers. Consumer confidence could also suffer.

It's also pretty clear that London financial services will have to set up operations within the EU if they wish to service the EU market. But the degree to which theses may be little more than brass plate operations will not become clear for some time. Airlines will have to be majority EU shareholder owned unless an extension of the Blueskies agreement is negotiated, so why not Financial Services companies? But that may take time.

So I wouldn't expect a dramatic decline in 2020, other than a continuation of the slow down that is already taking place. The UK has been teetering on the edge of a mild technical recession for the last few quarters and could slip into recession in 2020, but a steep collapse seems less likely until at least 2021.

What could collapse in 2020 is government revenues as lucrative city firms move their IP and profits off-shore. Ireland has been experiencing an unexpected and largely unexplained corporate tax receipts boom in the last couple of years even though the obvious tax loopholes such as the double Irish and Dutch sandwich have been closed, and many US firms have shipped their cash piles back to the US to take advantage of the Trump tax cuts.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 01:42:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There are still some people who think the 'Rejoin' campaign is a viable enterprise. Forget it! Look to Norway where membership (which would make sense) has been controversial for more than a generation. Though not as toxic as in Britain it is radioactive enough -with strong opinions on either side- that people will not touch it. As I said before, it's over and the UK will never return.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 01:08:18 PM EST
I don't think rejoin is an option for at least a generation, if ever, and by that stage the EU, too, will be a completely different animal.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 02:06:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Chris Grey as usual says it best:
Brexit has created a deeply divided country

Never before has a modern democratic country deliberately embarked on such a major change of direction whilst so internally divided about its wisdom, and one so widely seen by observers across the world as seriously damaging ...

Brexiters never expected to win, and would be happier if they had lost

... even as it is forced on the country, they remain unsatisfied and remain in that comfort zone of complaint and victimhood. ...

There may be worse days to come

At best, depending on what happens now, the effects may continue to be a gradual, slow-burn process of damage and decline with no great drama, and the full effects emerging over so many years that their cause will be easily denied.



Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 02:40:14 PM EST
And the full effects emerging over so many years that their cause will be easily denied

And that is the benign scenario...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 02:58:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And the minimum guaranteed...

Things are going to slide, slide in all directions
Won't be nothing, nothing you can measure anymore
L. Cohen
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 07:13:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank: The loss of 73 mostly far right and often disruptive UK MEPs

Actually, no. OK, I'll grant you that Farage, by himself, is loud and obnoxious enough for a dozen MEPs and we'll all agree that no longer seeing him prancing around the streets of Brussels definitely counts as A Good Thing.

But the sad fact is: Brexit means fewer Green MEPs (11 came from the UK) and with the Labour & LibDems MEPs leaving, the Socialist and Renew Europe groups will lose members as well. Because the Tories didn't want to join the EPP, it is actually the group gaining the most seats post Brexit. As for the "Euroskeptic" Identity and Democracy (ID) group which includes France's Front National and Italy's Lega, they are now surpassing the Green group, becoming the fourth largest group in the EP.

Less Socialists, more EPP and the Greens now surpassed by the fascists. Hardly an occasion to rejoice.

Brexit means rightward shift for the European Parliament

The Greens and liberal Renew Europe groups are set to lose out the most from the reshuffle, which will take the legislature from 751 to 705 seats, while the center-right European People's Party and Euroskeptic Identity and Democracy group will emerge as the biggest winners.

Geographically, the British exit will boost the influence of Southern European delegations in the chamber. Spain for example is set to gain five seats and its delegation will surpass the Romanians within Renew Europe. Italy picks up three, while France gains five.

by Bernard on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 08:20:02 PM EST
by Cat on Sat Feb 1st, 2020 at 09:14:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Feb 2nd, 2020 at 08:18:12 AM EST
French fishermen temporarily lose access to Guernsey waters
PARIS (Reuters) - French fishermen are temporarily banned from entering the waters of Guernsey due to post-Brexit administrative changes that the authorities expect to resolve in the coming days, the French Agriculture Ministry said on Saturday.

The agreement on water access to Guernsey coasts, one of the Channel Islands situated near the French coast of Normandy, was based on a European fisheries treaty that expired automatically on Friday night with Britain's exit from the European Union.

Britain and the EU now need to negotiate a post-Brexit trade agreement but for now, the relationship is a business-as-usual transition period until the end of this year, meaning that French fishermen would retain access to Guernsey waters.

However the authorities in Guernsey, a British crown dependency, decided to install a new system where boats would need to get individual authorizations to enter the waters 6 to 12 miles off its coasts.


Many British fishermen (fisherpersons?) were anxious to get back exclusive control of the UK's fishing waters, the largest in Europe by far (Great Britain is an island), which are still accessible by all EU countries. Others in the fishing industry remind that over 70% of the British catches are exported to the EU. Eventual customs controls could be a major issue.
by Bernard on Sun Feb 2nd, 2020 at 01:13:14 PM EST
Britain's exit from the European Union.

How does this work? I didn't think that Guernsey was ever in the EU.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Feb 2nd, 2020 at 01:23:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guernsey isn't in the EU but has access to the Single Market - something which could change if they start interfering with French fishermen!


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Feb 2nd, 2020 at 02:06:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Consilium.europa.eu: The Code of Conduct for Business Taxation
"Grey": Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Isle of Man, Jersey, Vanuatu

Withdrawal Agreement, 24 Feb 2019 in force a/o 31 Jan
ARTICLE 3, Territorial Scope + Protocol

by Cat on Fri Feb 7th, 2020 at 07:13:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Disputed Waters: Storms loom in fishery dispute | The Herald - 1996 |

It's time to cut electricity to the Islands ...

Channel Islands Electricity Grid strengthened with new agreement | Sustainable Guernsey - May 2013 |

😎

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Sun Feb 2nd, 2020 at 04:00:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Britain will not be aligning with EU: Raab | BBC News |

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Sun Feb 2nd, 2020 at 04:31:22 PM EST
As a practical matter, Krugman agrees.

Arbitrage

demonstrates that neither a "level playing field" nor "perfect knowledge" co-exist at the root of market solutions for "growth" problems.

by Cat on Fri Feb 7th, 2020 at 09:45:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jamaica deportations 'must be halted until Windrush report published', 7 Feb

Council of Immigration Judges: scarcely regarding the origin, obligations, and effects of an unenforceable international agreement formally entitled the British Commonwealth of Nations. Why is that?

reference
Commonwealth Charter

by Cat on Fri Feb 7th, 2020 at 06:36:10 PM EST
Guardian
Dissident republicans in Northern Ireland tried to use a truck bomb to blow up a ferry sailing to Scotland on Brexit day, police said.

Officers linked a ferry crossing of the Irish Sea on 31 January with a bomb found on a heavy goods vehicle in county Armagh earlier this week.

The Police Service of Norther Ireland (PSNI) believes the Continuity IRA (CIRA), a splinter group that rejects the peace process, was responsible for the device.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Feb 7th, 2020 at 06:42:35 PM EST
CNN | Here's what Steyer thinks about national referendums
Steyer continued: "We're going to have to make some changes ... But what we have right now is so broken, that we're going to have to do something differently. And I'm going to trust the American people. And we're going to design it in a way to try to make it as careful as possible. But they're going to have to make structural changes.

Why this sounds familiar: The the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a bitterly fought referendum in June 2016.

by Cat on Fri Feb 7th, 2020 at 09:31:21 PM EST

from High Court to hmmmm

by Cat on Sat Feb 8th, 2020 at 08:43:18 AM EST

uh oh

by Cat on Sat Feb 8th, 2020 at 08:48:22 AM EST


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