Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

It's not over yet

by Frank Schnittger Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 01:46:22 PM EST

It's been almost a fortnight since our last round-up on the US Elections and not a huge amount has changed. Biden got a 3% uplift from +7% to +10% in the opinion polls after the first debate and Trumps subsequent Covid-19 diagnosis, with many Americans disapproving of Trump's performance in the debate and his failure to take adequate precautions against the disease. Post debate bumps in the polls often don't last, but the continued prevalence of the pandemic has kept Trump's performance on the pandemic front and centre of the political stage.


Early and postal voting has been taking place in many states and a record number of voters have been availing of those options. 28 Million voters have already cast their votes compared to 6 Million at the same stage in 2016 and this represents Over 20% of the total 2016 turnout. in those states where voters are registered by party affiliation, registered Democrat voters outnumber registered Republicans by over 2:1, although this ratio is expected to decline as we approach election day. Democrats have a greater history of voting by mail and some Republicans may have been put off voting that way by Trump's claims that it could be fraudulent.

Having a lot of your vote in early does give Democrats a huge tactical advantage however. Not only does it provide some insurance against bad weather or Covid-19 or technical problems on election day, but it also enables the Democratic Party campaign to focus their efforts on mobilizing those of their potential voters who have not yet voted. Independent voters make up an increasingly large segment of the population (c. 38%) and so far they have returned 20% of the ballots registered to date. Polling indicates they tend to lean more to Democrats than Republicans (17%-13%) and have a lower propensity to vote.

Some research shows that Trump is gaining some support among Black (+11) and Hispanic voters (+14), though off a very low base and not enough to compensate for losing much of his edge with white voters (-7%), particularly amongst women(-15) and those without college degrees (-13). Fintan O'Toole has a piece up describing how Trump has failed this core constituency, with coal mining jobs falling faster than ever before under his Presidency. Republicans have also lost much of their edge amongst suburban voters since 2016.  Many of those lost white supporters live in swing states Trump needs to carry.

At the moment Nate Silver has Pennsylvania down as the tipping point state which carries Biden over the 270 electoral college majority. His model gives Biden a 6.3% edge there and an 88% chance of winning. So although Biden is up 10.7% in the National polls, his lead in the critical state is only just over 6%. However even if Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania, he still has good chances in Florida (+3.4%, 78% chance of winning), Arizona (+3.1%, 68%), North Carolina (2.6%, 67%), and Georgia (+0.1% 51%).  As against that, if Biden loses Wisconsin  (+6.8%, 88%), Nevada (+7%, 87%) or Michigan (+7.9%, 92%), he is in deep trouble.

The bottom line is that while Biden is 10.7% ahead in Nate Silvers' national polling average, a loss of only 6.3% points in Pennsylvania could swing the tipping point state back the other way, and Trump could theoretically win the electoral college despite losing the popular vote by as much as 4.4% nationwide. In practice, such national swings are rarely uniform, and another state like Florida or Arizona (+ Maine2) could deliver the 270 votes required. The fact that Biden grew up in Scranton, Pennsylvania, may help his cause there. Given the level of voter suppression in Florida, however, I wouldn't want to rely on it as the tipping point state.

Something like that happened in 2016 when Hillary Clinton lost at least 3% in the national polls in the final weeks due to the Comey Letter which tipped her off the cliff in states she had previously taken for granted. A poor performance by Biden in the sole remaining debate on 22nd. October could theoretically have a similar effect especially as it is so close to the final polling day. No doubt Trump may use the debate to announce that he is personally approving a Covid-19 vaccine and promising a free shot to the entire electorate. It is worth bearing in mind that Biden is still doing worse than Hillary in key swing states at this late stage in the campaign.

So while Nate Silver is giving Biden an 88% of winning the election, (and a 70% chance of winning the trifecta in Presidential, Senate and Congressional elections), I wouldn't discount the 12% chance of Trump winning entirely. Nate famously gave Trump a 30% chance of winning in 2016 (the same as Trumps campaign's internal modelling), and we all know those odds sometimes come true. We must remember that Trump won the electoral College by quite a wide margin (306 - 232) despite losing the popular vote by more than 2%. So while the popular narrative may be that Trump is losing the election (and a landslide is quite likely), I would caution that its not over yet.

No commentary on a US election is complete without mentioning the level of voter disenfranchisement and suppression. Over 5 Million (mostly Black) American's are disenfranchised because they have a criminal conviction at some stage in their lives, possibly for something as minor as a small unpaid court fine. There has also been much commentary on voters having to wait in line for many hours, and the decision by some some Republican governors to restrict ballot drop-off points to one per county - with some counties more populous than several whole states.

There are far less voting machines per head of population in many democratic leaning areas making it much more difficult to vote, and Trump has attempted to delegitimize the practice of postal voting. When you add in rampant gerrymandering, confusing ballots, and a billionaire controlled media, the playing field is very much tilted in favour of a conservative, white, Republican leaning electorate. Unless Democrats win a trifecta, get rid of the filibuster rule, pack the Supreme Court, make the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico full states with their own senators and win many statewide Governorships and assemblies as well, not much will change. The bottom line is that the USA is not a true democracy by any normal definition of that term.

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As against that, if Biden loses Wisconsin  (+6.8%, 88%), Nevada (+7%, 87%) or Michigan (+7.9%, 92%), he is in deep trouble.

I mean, if Biden loses, or is on track (with a lot of vote in) to lose, any of those, with the possible exception of Nevada, I'm going to bed, because he's not winning in that case.

Also don't think the spread between PA and the national polls is worth much given the dearth of polling in PA recently.  It's looked all year like a roughly 3-point spread.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 04:14:52 PM EST
(My first comment here after registering, have been reading this site for over three years now.)

Note that various websites have reported there will be late vote counting so various states will report in their complete numbers only after many hours, perhaps even days; since more Dems than Reps are voting via mail, there is an acute danger of Trump lying ahead in the early count, claiming victory, and then as counting progresses and Biden inches ahead, they will blast the full "election fraud via mail" message. We need to watch out for that storm.

by Averett on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 05:19:13 PM EST
Welcome!

There's a very real possibility of Trump being able to get his case to the Supreme Court.  If that happens Roberts will most likely disallow final vote counting like on Florida in 2000.

IF that happens life is going to get ... unpredictably "interesting."

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 05:38:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would hand Trump a win - but it would be clearly illegitimate.

2000 just about squeezed by, partly because no one expected it. But it's harder to make a case when Trump is somewhere between 5 and 10 down in the national polls.

"Interesting" would be the word. It would likely tear the US apart.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 05:50:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think SCOTUS will care a jot what the opinion polls say.  They have no legal standing. Some pretext will be found if the result is  close enough to create doubt. If I recall, there was statistical evidence last time that the voting machines systematically under-counted Dem votes, but nothing was ever proved beyond reasonable doubt. The presumption of innocence favours the establishment.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:21:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
SCOTUS won't, but voters will. You can't steal an election without at least some attempt at plausible deniability. Currently that's not available to Trump, or to SCOTUS.

In 2000 the result was ridiculously close, with less than 500 votes in a single state deciding the outcome of the entire election. And Bush had led in the polling in the run-up to the election.

The situation this year is very different. Trump can only win if he can find a legal pretext for manipulating the results in multiple states, most - possibly none - of which are likely to be very close.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:53:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Roberts voted against the Rethugs in the latest PA supreme court ruling yesterday. the vote was 4-4, thus not overturning the lower court.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 11:08:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The USA has moved so far to the right in recent years, that even conservative judges appointed years ago are now to the left of the spectrum on SCOTUS

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 07:51:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Florida had a Republican Governer ("Jeb?" Remember him). If the state has a Democrat, he could quote Jackson "Roberts has made his decision; now let him enforce it." and continue counting.

The SC doing anything like that without the absolute certainty of prevailing is very risky, as President Biden could then impeach them all.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 07:31:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good one tacked to THE oldest atty joke; 2nd oldest being, "I don't defend hypotheticals."

Oyez! Oyez! LEGIT "politicization" will now come to order!
Here are our recommendations for Florida Supreme Court, Third District Court of Appeal | Editorial

When Reubin Askew became governor in 1971, the Florida Supreme Court (SCOFLA) was one big #FloridaMan joke.
< wipes tears >
For a time, the new system worked well. Accomplished and widely admired lawyers looking to give something back to their profession and to serve their communities threw their hats in the ring of a competitive, but largely apolitical, process.

Things began to change when Jeb Bush became governor. With the Legislature' s help, Bush seized control of the state's Judicial Nominating Commissions and began to populate them with political allies who view the judiciary not as a co-equal branch of government, but as a hallelujah chorus whose job it is to rubber stamp whatever the Legislature passes and the governor signs.

[INCONTINENCE ALERT]
Nothing will change until voters voice their displeasure at the ballot box.

The Herald Editorial Board recommends NO on the question, "Shall Justice Carlos G. Muñiz be retained in office?"

The five judges in the Third District Court seeking retention have not obviously been involved in politicizing their high court position.

Here are our recommendations:

by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 08:21:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And what corporation owns that newspaper?

The "free press" ain't.

by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 12:37:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Plumbing the intellectual history, pedigree, and sanctity of Anglo-merican free press, free speech imperative is most entertaining, when public opinion is reported to be SCANDALIZED and constipated by defamation of idols.

atm, I'm into perusing distal commentary on the puritan John Pym's public house PR campaign which hastened the civil war.

by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 01:05:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Philocothonista, Or THE DRUNKARD, Opened, Dissected, and Anatomized
...The number of imprints in England rose dramatically during the early 1640s.. After Charles I and his government demonstrated their weakness by failing to bring the Calvinist Scots into line with the liturgy and hierarchy of the English established Church, events tumbled over each other, and readers in London and in the counties were starved for news and for certainties. The London printers could barely satisfy the demand. In 1620, 410 imprints were published, in 1639, 464 and in 1640, 577 appeared. According to Frederick Stephens' Catalogue of Personal and Political Satirical Prints of the British Museum, twenty-five imprints-broadsides and pamphlets--were published on March 1, 1641 alone; all refer to the impeachment of Archbishop William Laud on that day.7

While the whole structure of censorship was falling apart along with the demise of the authority of the bishops, the Star Chamber and the High Commission, the number of unlicensed printers was multiplying. In 1642, John Taylor, "the water poet", expressed his dismay at "the many unlicensed licentious pamphleteers that have been scattered about the kingdom within these 23 months." Henry Parker bemoaned the general confusion about printing and the appearance of "strangers such as drapers, carmen and others to set up presses in diverse obscure corners of the city."8 The excitement of events in London and in the kingdom could only incite the printers to find woodcuts old or new to illustrate their newsbooks....

by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 09:23:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was a fascinating time.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 12:18:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And electricity has made free press all the more fascinating.
by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 08:05:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Cases." It will not just be one state, it will be most of them. Unless there is a clear result in a given state, maybe 10%+ one way or the other, or unless the voting system is really clean, like Colorado (I hope), the results will be appealed.
by asdf on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 05:12:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great comment! Yes the practice of the networks racing to call various states before many votes are counted is a dangerous one, given Dems are likely to do better with with postal votes and the counting timescale can vary so much from state to state. I never quite understood the logic of SCOTUS calling a halt to counting so early in 2000. Given the new President isn't inaugurated until late January, what's the hurry?

In Ireland the counting and recounting process can take days because of our complex seaming multi-seat, single transferable vote system, but the drama of trying to predict where the final seat will go depending on voters 15th and 16th. choices way down their order of preference keeps the pundits in employment for may hours. It is part of the national theatre of democracy quite apart from the fact that it presents even smaller parties with a fair chance of winning seats and discourages polarising candidates and campaigns.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 05:51:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
early? um, I recall calling it a night between 11 PM- midnight with only FL precincts remaining. Then waking up to wtf -- "hanging chad" punched ballots discarded overnight.
by Cat on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:50:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank: "I never quite understood the logic of SCOTUS calling a halt to counting so early in 2000."

There WAS no logic. It was a pure exercise in power politics. The Republicans did it because they could. That was why they had been all about court packing since Reagan.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:44:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Then why did Gore so cravenly accept such a partisan ruling?... I know, because he is an establishment idiot... The GOPers can hardly complain then if Dems DO pack the court, but somehow I don't see Dems doing it. They are too comfortable being able to blame the GOP for not doing anything substantial...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I remember correctly the problem in 2000 was that a contested election would have gone to the house, with each state delegation voting as a block, which had a strong republican majority at the time. The result would have been very likely the same.

As for Gore conceding: beyond the difficulty in winning (they first would have to achieve a victory in a recount in two counties, then legally force an overall recount and then hope that would give a more decisive result that the first round) there is the matter of timing. When the supreme court gave its ridiculous decision on December 12 there were only some six weeks left until the inauguration date. Which, legally speaking is quite short. On top of which the US has that idiotic system where a new administration has to name some 3000 odd people into government to keep it running. (Why the US government can't trust in a politically neutral civil service to do the overwhelming majority of those jobs is one off the many mysteries of the country's political setup).

by Anspen on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 10:53:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem with having a politically neutral civil service do a lot of the work is that they would be guided by science and logical policy imperatives. If you are a conservative and trying to prove that the state can't do most jobs as well as "the markets" then the last thing you want is competent civil servants on the job. They might try to regulate the private sector, for one thing.

The genius of the conservative political project s that they have persuaded many of the hoi polloi that the state is their enemy rather than their friend, and that their true friends are billionaire business owners who have the best interests of everyone at heart. Even superheroes are in reality rich people trying to help the poor saddled with an incompetent police service and state. Sadly, if you recruit, pay, and train them badly enough, the police service really is incompetent.

And of course if the hoi polloi really want to be rich and emulate the billionaires, its easy to persuade them that they too could make it rich if they are smart and hard working enough, even if most wealth is actually inherited. The state, meanwhile, is populated by failed businessmen and ne'er do wells with their fingers in the till doing a jobs worth for the lobbying firms. Who would want to aspire to emulate that?

The progressive project is about the common good - a nebulous concept sometimes hard to define. The conservative project, on the other hand is about unabashed and unashamed self promotion, built on the insight that most people are fundamentally selfish and care more for themselves and their families than the rest of society. The pandemic is deeply subversive of that philosophy, because my health depends on your good behaviour for which I give you nothing. What could be more stupid than that notion, if you are a conservative?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:31:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's no evidence Trump is going to win Pennsylvania.  He is down 19 in Presidential Approval.  

What little presidential polling evidence we have says Biden will win PA handily.  All the other state wide races have Dems winning.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 05:47:46 PM EST
Much the same was true in 2016 until the last few days  of the campaign...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 05:53:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I have said many times, Trump won because he got out 2 million voters who would have not passed the likely voter screens, there was a 74% of white vote to total vote, Trump won by ~80,000 votes scattered across Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.  The most important bit of that is the white vote.  He won't get that this year.  Plus, if Pew Research is accurate, the total white percentage of the vote will fall to 68% and since 2000 the GOP needs it to be 72% or above to win.

I agree we need to be cautious but we also need to understand Trump's 2016 was a winning draw to an inside straight: it happens but that's not how it usually goes.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:05:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't get me wrong, I think Biden is most likely to win and quite possibly by a landslide. But a 12% chance of a Trump win is not negligible and Biden is quite capable of screwing up in the next debate.

What has puzzled me most about this campaign is how stable it has been, despite Covid-19 and the train wreck which has been Trump's Presidency and campaign. He has broken every rule in the book and it has hardly effected his numbers.

Deep down I wonder is there something deeply authoritarian, misogynistic, racist, narcissistic, and envious in the US psyche, which values material self-aggrandisement above all else and cares little about the damage it does to others.

Something almost Germanic without the transformative reckoning which Hitler and WWII forced on Germany itself. A lot of people seem to admire Trump and wish to emulate him even though they know he is a fraud.

I suppose the declining days of empire where ever thus.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:40:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The official US religion isn't Christianity, it's narcissism. It's an institutionally narcissistic and tribal country where you're either a winner - i.e. a rich grifter with a touchy but self-congratulatory sense of entitlement, and more or less overt indifference shading into contempt for others - or a loser.

Winners deserve everything, losers deserve nothing - no humane consideration, and in extreme cases no justice or mercy.

Individual Americans may or may not operate like this, but this morality is absolutely endemic in politics, finance, law, the medical industry, and even in science and academia.

It's even visible on the left. Bill Clinton and Obama both have it, but cover it up by appearing smart and personable in public - even though mostly they operate out of self-interest in private.

Hilary Clinton lost because she couldn't hide it, and there are various democratic creatures - like Feinstein - who don't even try to disguise it.

The next generation - AOC, etc - don't seem quite so badly infected by it, but it's unlikely they don't have it at all.

So Trump was entirely inevitable. But then in many ways he's just a vastly dumber version of Nixon, who personified a previous generation of it.

The last vaguely decent president was Carter, and it's telling that he's considered a weak failure.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:12:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most recent Presidents make President Eisenhower look moderate, and Roosevelt truly inspirational. Kamala Harris is pretty ruthless to, but maybe that's a requirement to move up the greasy pole and not representative of a wider demographic.

I remember being shocked 25 years ago when visiting friends of friends on a family holiday in Washington state. They were politically progressive social workers but almost their first question, on hearing our occupations, was "how much do you make?"

In Ireland you would never ask that question, even of close friends, and you certainly wouldn't measure your self-worth or the status of others by it. Indeed flaunting wealth - if you have it - is much frowned upon and there is a cottage industry in quite wealthy individuals "putting on the poor mouth".

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:26:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What has puzzled me most about this campaign is how stable it has been, despite Covid-19 and the train wreck which has been Trump's Presidency and campaign. He has broken every rule in the book and it has hardly effected his numbers.

It has affected his numbers though?  Not as much as you might think, but it has.

He briefly closed to about a 4-point race in March/April following the rally-round effects of the impeachment trial and the initial Covid response with the shutdowns and CARES Act.

Then, being Trump, he got bored and mad -- over GDP, over Fauci getting better ratings, who knows? -- and began stepping on rakes.  The Covid response went to hell, and he completely botched the response to George Floyd's death, and Biden's lead blew up to a 9- or 10-point affair in summer.

At that point, Biden began hitting the 50s.  Biden's been in the 50s uninterrupted for about five months, which I believe is unprecedented.

The gap then closed to about 7 as the protests calmed down and the conventions went on.

Then Biden clowned him in the debate and he stepped on a few more rakes, and the lead expanded again.  And that's where we are now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall swings of 10-15% within a matter of a couple of months in previous elections as candidates got better known, as undecided made up their minds, or as events unfolded.

The change has let me to surmise that this election is not so much about policy or political opinion - which can change rapidly, but about tribal identification, which rarely does.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:20:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Generally there are pretty wide swings, but a thing to keep in mind is that Trump is an incumbent and Biden is about as well known as a challenger could possibly be.

So the lack of wild swings isn't really surprising.

If Biden wins -- and obviously we still have two weeks -- I think this will actually wind up recorded as a pretty simple story:

"People have never really liked Donald Trump to begin with -- he's never had a net-approval north of zero -- and Trump then fucked-up the Covid response.  George Floyd was then murdered, and the fact that it was such a simple case and all on video shifted the perception of how black people are treated by cops, and Trump then fucked-up his response to that.  Trump continued to say crazy shit.  Trump continued fucking up the Covid response, despite Covid being the most important issue.  Meanwhile, everybody knows who Joe Biden is, and Joe Biden ran on `Y'all aren't excited by me, and that's fair, but he's a fuck-up and I'll fix his fuck-ups.'  And he mostly kept his mouth shut and let Trump hang himself."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And if Biden wins, it will be because the voters believe Trump is a buffoon and are exhausted by him, and they look at boring ol' Joe Biden and think, "For the love of god, give me that."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:35:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And with expectations so low, how can Biden lose? All he has to do in the next debate is speak softly to camera his standard campaign lines - ignoring both the moderator questions and Trump's attempts to hassle him. Speaking grandly and warmly about bringing people together is what "Presidential" now looks like compared to the ill-mannered Trump.

But I don't trust him enough not to fuck it up...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:43:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, honestly, if I'm Biden, I try to bait Trump into getting mad and skipping the debate again.  Then go give speeches in the key swing states.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:39:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump craves attention and acknowledgement. The more Biden ignores him, the madder Trump will get.

But yes. Biden can insist Trump wear mask for the debate or that the moderator must switch off Trump's mike when his time his up, and Trump will probably walk away in a huff or try to shout in Biden's ear from close range.

Biden just has to smile paternalistically at him as Trump has a tantrum - as Kamala Harris did, a lot, rather than challenge Pence with logic and facts. It's no longer a debate, not even a discussion. It's a political beauty contest. Who would you prefer to have as the head of your family...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 01:14:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a political beauty contest.

Congratulations!

You are beginning to understand US politics.  It's never a debate - 99.99% of American don't have a fucking clue what a debate is - or a discussion.  It's a joint press conference "moderated" by the intellectually negligible.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 05:26:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another weird thing about 2020.

If you squint your eyes a bit they're both incumbents.  Trump because he is and Biden because of his 8 years as VP to an extremely popular president.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 05:22:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
um ...................................

Deep down I wonder is there something deeply authoritarian, misogynistic, racist, narcissistic, and envious in the US psyche, which values material self-aggrandisement above all else and cares little about the damage it does to others.

got it in one.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 09:28:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
White voters liked seeing their cities in flames? They liked BLM smash and grab from expensive stores?

I think the Kenosha arson and looting coupled with the late and bored response from the Dem Governor gives Wisconsin to Trump. Again.

However, this election is truly Scylla vs Charybdis. The silly meme of Biden being for the working man is a fraud. The "Senator from Citibank" is still the author of the Catfood Commission. If Trump was not such a bizarre loose cannon, the election would be in the bag.

What president do you want? "Yes Minister" Biden or "Fawlty Towers" Trump?  I'm thinking of seeking Italian Citizenship by derivation. My grandfather was an Italian citizen when my father was born in the USA. Too bad I can speak some (High school) German but no Italian. Would EU rules let me live in Germany or Ireland?

by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 01:23:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It depends on who they think lit and fanned the flames.

The EU doesn't determine residency rules. Ask your local embassy. I'm not aware of much in the way of restrictions on US citizens provided you can support yourself.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 10:40:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
TBF though, in 2016, afaik, neither Georgia nor Texas were remotely "in play". I do doubt Biden is going to win them - but there is the hope that among older voters the realization has set in that with Trump their actual immediate physical health is on the line. So, Florida is actually in play; so is Pennsylvania; and Michigan/Wisconsin are not givens at all for him. In that sense, I think 538 is close to displaying some form of actual sentiment in the electorate, especially since most pollsters are now trying to correct for the 2016 undercount of certain rural "underweighted" areas. I am more worried about attempts to steal away votes last minute via backdoor handling and voter suppression. The various reports that many early voters are enduring 10+ hours wait to vote is encouraging though.
by Averett on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:08:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Demographic changes have gradually brought them into play over the past few cycles and both could be important in down ticket races, especially as there are two senate elections in Georgia.  However if Biden wins either he will probably have already won by a landslide elsewhere.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:26:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Known this since the 2018 mid-terms

AP News: "Our House Is On Fire: Suburban Women Lead Charge vs. Trump"

Goldman spends every day door knocking for Democrats in Oakland County, Michigan, an affluent Detroit suburb. She feels responsible for the country's future: Trump won Michigan in 2016 by 10,700 votes and that helped usher him into the White House. Goldman believes people like her -- suburban white women -- could deliver the country from another four years of chaos.

For many of those women, the past four years have meant frustration, anger and activism -- a political awakening that powered women's marches, the #MeToo movement and the victories of record numbers of female candidates in 2018. That energy has helped create the widest gender gap -- the political divide between men and women -- in recent history. And it has started to show up in early voting as women are casting their ballots earlier than men. In Michigan, women have cast nearly 56% of the early vote so far, and 68% of those were Democrats, according to the voting data firm L2.

Trump and state wide Republicans cannot win without suburban white women.  Democrats are expected to win more House seats due to that bloc switching their vote.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:00:08 PM EST
Especially as women have a higher propensity to vote...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 06:27:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They also can't win if Biden's going to pull 39% of non-college whites and win seniors.

I think the suburban wine moms are obviously an important part of the story, but I also think they're more important to places like Georgia and Texas than to (say) Wisconsin, and so are over-emphasized.

Biden's strength is pretty broad relative to Clinton, seemingly.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:06:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The bottom line is that the USA is not a true democracy by any normal definition of that term.

Considering the state of the world's 'democracies' what WOULD be a reasonable definiton of that term?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:49:54 PM EST
Either for 'reasonable' or 'normal'.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't regard states like Israel as democracies as they have disenfranchised vast swathes of Palestinians while denying them separate statehood, but if you take many European, ex-commonwealth and even most Asian and some Latin American democracies as the norm, you will find that most democracies do not have:

  1. Vast sums of dark money funding candidates/parties
  2. Political advertising on a huge scale
  3. FPTP single seat electoral systems which mean that effectively, only two parties are in contention for power
  4. Constituency boundaries controlled by partisan rather than neutral arbiters
  5. Blatantly politicised judiciary
  6. Voter suppression on a large scale
  7. Voter disenfranchisement for even minor felony offences
  8. Voting technology controlled by a single private company
  9. Relatively low turnout rates
  10. Corporates being treated as "people"
  11. "Free Speech" only available to those who can pay for it
  12. But they DO have broadly proportionate representation systems which means many minor parties and minorities can win representation. Democracy should never be reduced to a binary choice. It must reflect the diversity of society.

In so many ways, the USA is an outlier, and not in a good way...


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:31:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with your criteria but doubt there are very many states to which none truly apply. But the USA DOES have almost all of those problems. How many apply to Ireland?


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:58:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obviously peoples views will vary, depending on how well they think their interests and concerns are represented within the polity, but in my view, almost none.

Sinn Féin has some sources of finance it refuses to reveal claiming they are covered by (non existent) UK disclosure laws in N. Ireland and the DUP received and spent a few hundred thousands £ of dark money on pro-Brexit ads in a London free sheet, but in general there is v. little money in Irish politics and quite high ethical standards.

Fianna Fail had some dodgy friends and fund-raising practices in the 1980's and there are still occasionally allegations of "brown envelope money" corrupting the planning permission process but that has been mostly cleaned up. There is some state support for parties/candidates to limit the scope of private money, but in general election budgets are small.

I encountered some minor corruption when chairman of a local community council opposed to an illegal CRH quarrying operation. En route to a County Council meeting we dropped of for a break at a hotel only to find county councillors being wined and dined by CRH!

We won in the end, but it was tough going. I'm not active enough now to know if it is still going on. I suspect it is.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 09:57:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I submitted your criteria to FB friends in Australia and Canada. Both are far better than the USA, but Canada stands out for the robustness of their democracy, according to this sample of two well informed opinions.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 12:23:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not trying to score brownie points for any particular jurisdiction, but highlight how much "the GREATEST DEMOCRACY IN THE WORLD" is really an outlier, something most of its denizens don't seem to realise.

The other thing which intrigues me is how Republican/conservative some states bordering on Canada seem to be - you would have thought that exposure to Canadian norms would have sensitized them to what a real democracy looks like.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 11:08:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"exposure to Canadian norms would have sensitized them Canadian norms": Are you joking? I can't tell.
by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 03:48:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 10:11:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I see 538 had just flipped Georgia blue after some polls in today. I hope its a trend.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:05:47 PM EST
If it holds it will be the hallmark of a true blue tsunami.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 09:02:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Biden has a 1.1% lead in their running polling average and their model runs give Biden a 51% to 49% lead in outcomes.

But flipping the state Blue????


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 05:30:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The mere fact that Stacey Abrams, a Democratic, black woman came within spitting distance of being elected governor in 2018 shows the profound changes that have been underway in the Peach State. See also Drew's comments about metro Atlanta in ATinNM's Senate diary.
by Bernard on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 07:18:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Supreme Court declines to block Pennsylvania mail-in ballot extension
In a Sept. 17 ruling, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court approved Democratic Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar's request to extend the absentee ballot receipt deadline to 5:00 p.m. on Friday, Nov. 6.

and the only record of events that counted in the race against time to certification
Bush v Gore, 8 Dec 2000, syllabus
by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:03:56 AM EST
"In a 4-4 Split, the Supreme Court Lets Pennsylvania Make Voting Easier--For Now; The decision signals that Amy Coney Barrett will cast the deciding vote in any upcoming election disputes."

Republicans are making sure the deciding vote on who will be elected the next President is  their candidate Conservative Mrs. Barrett. Not a democracy.

Underlying principle is the right for States to run their own election and the Federal Law protecting citizen's right to vote. Same as in 2000 when the ruling bij the Florida Supreme Court was upheld by SCOTUS. The dimple or hanging chads controversy. An important role played by John Bolton and the crowd pushing to witness the count. The USA never recovered.  What was hidden at the time was the purging of voter lists initiated by brother Jeb Bush - some 55,000 voters disenfranchised. Same and worse two years ago in Georgia by Governor Kemp and suppression of 670,000 voters.

by Oui on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 07:19:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A BIDEN WIN SECURED?

This SCOTUS decision certainly swings Pennsylvania into the corner of Democrats ... is there a path for Trump without this State? I thought not ... a steeper Hill to climb ... a slow slide into hell.

by Oui on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 10:04:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania has 20 Winner Take All Electoral College votes.  Unlike Florida and Ohio the state isn't a Must Have for Trump. Winning it is his easiest path to victory.   Trump can, in theory, win without it however all the other scenarios become ever more unlikely.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 02:29:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I seem to forget in 2016 it wasn't even close! 😖 Trump 304 to Clinton 227. A number of swing States ... do need to swing the other way.
by Oui on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 03:37:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two years ago Kemp wasn't governor. He was secretary of state while campaigning for office. How GA's constitution sustained this blatant conflict of public duties and personal interest is a question few asked at the time or after SoS certified votes.

Why some people are unable or unwilling to relate "bipartisan" reasoning of SCOTUS in Bush v Gore to the cascade of US and states' judicial injunctions of arbitrary alteration of states' laws--by either controlling party--for this election is kind of neurotic, considering the associates didn't even publish an opinion with the order denying review of lower court ruling; adequate time to review any constitutional Qs by Nov 3 is the controlling factor of the order; and the Anti-RBG explicitly denied senators by invoking the "Ginsburg Rule" for confirmation nominees: "no hints, no previews, no forecasts".

by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 03:47:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two years ago Kemp wasn't governor. He was secretary of state while campaigning for office. How GA's constitution sustained this blatant conflict of public duties and personal interest is a question few asked at the time or after SoS certified votes.

What are you talking about?  It was discussed constantly during that race.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 03:58:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
not at eurotrib; now, look up relevant GA dockets: What do these cases "discuss"?
by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 04:22:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Democrats seize on U.S. Supreme Court election deadlock in Barrett fight
"In 2000, its conservative majority clinched Republican George W. Bush's victory over Democrat Al Gore with a 5-4 decision involving ballots in Florida."

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 01:55:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bush vs. Gore and Equal Protection

"Our consideration is limited to the present circumstances, for the problem of equal protection in election processes generally presents many complexities."

Palm Beach County butterfly-ballots

by Oui on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 08:17:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Political party strength across US

As of May 2020, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 25% identified as Republican, and 40% as Independent. Additionally, polling showed that 50% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 38% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"

Republicans see bright spot in voter registration push

Will Hispanics decide the Florida Winner? The ghost of Fidel Castro and Cuban Communism.

by Oui on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 07:44:23 AM EST
Voters have now cast 31,677,305 ballots, 23% of total 2016 turnout. 14,599,141 (46%) of these votes have been in states with voter registration by party

Of these,54% have been cast by registered Democrats vs. 25% by Republicans - a net lead of 4.23 Million.

roughly 3.2 Million ballots have also been cast by registered independents and others. If these tend to lean more Dem than Republican, as polls suggest, the total Dem lead could be closer to 5 Million atm.

If the 46% of ballots cast in states with voter registration are representative of the entire country, the Dem lead could be c. 10M votes cast atm.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 11:02:20 AM EST
To put this in context, Dems possibly have a 21M to 11 Million lead in votes cast at the minute. Almost 2:1. Not going to last, of course, but what if turnout on polling day was severely depressed by bad weather, Covid surge, technical glitches, voter fatigue, long queues?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump is faced with a dilemma
With exactly two weeks until election day, Donald Trump still has time to turn the race around as polls show him trailing Joe Biden. But the president has been presented with a new predicament after the Commission on Presidential Debates announced last night the moderator of Thursday night's presidential debate may mute the microphones of the two candidates for some parts of the debate.

Trump has railed against the commission for weeks, accusing the independent body of pro-Biden bias - and refusing to take part in the scheduled debate last week in Miami because it changed to a virtual format following his diagnosis with Covid.

Now the president is faced with a dilemma - will he or won't he take part in a debate where he can't dictate the terms? Given that current polls suggest he is losing, Trump needs all the air time he can get to convince the dwindling number of undecided voters to back him, and a statement by his campaign last night suggests he will take part.

Worryingly for Trump, more people tuned into Joe Biden's ABC "town hall" last Thursday than his event with NBC, suggesting his fabled ratings-power may be fading.

The president held two rallies in Arizona yesterday. Both saw a combative and defiant performance by the president. He was particularly critical of the media and his crass language could indicate the growing frustration of a president who knows he is losing.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:28:36 PM EST
Trump says public sick of coronavirus `idiots' like Fauci
US president Donald Trump hit out at leading virus expert Dr Anthony Fauci on Monday as he claimed that people were "tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots".

In a call with campaign staff, which was also open to journalists, Mr Trump said that he believed people were tired of coronavirus and just wanted to be left alone. He also claimed that Dr Fauci was a "disaster"- "if we listened to [Fauci] we'd have 700,000, 800,000 deaths".

"Every time he goes on television there's always a bomb, but there's a bigger bomb if you fire him," he said.

Mr Trump's attack on Dr Fauci, one of the nation's top health officials who is leading America's response to the pandemic, comes as the number of Americans infected by Covid-19 rose past eight million over the weekend. States across the midwest are seeing a surge in cases. Iowa's positive test rate is now at 51 per cent, while Wisconsin set its biggest single-day record of cases on Friday.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:43:26 PM EST
I'm sure Fauci bashing plays well with his base.  Never underestimate the ressentiment of low income whites and their membership to the Cult of My Ignorance Is Just as Good as Your Expertise.

 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 02:41:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No one would associate me with Trump's base of ignorant white people. Yet I've made my disdain for Fauci's "scientific" credentials, public health "leadership", and NIH, NIAID product marketing in this particular episode of communicable disease apocalypses plain.

It is well-deserved.

by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 03:08:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a good comment and definitely does not jibe with ATinNM's take.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 03:56:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh dear ... during this SARS Covid-2 episode, or the China virus episode, Dr. Fauci was the  sane person on public health advice. Quite true, Trump Inc. LLC won the products launch for his BIG Pharma benefactors on Operation Warp Speed.

In the UK the same Idiot  ..

The government's secretive Covid contracts are heaping misery on Britain

The losers are "We the People" as the citizens of Manchester behind the red wall will find out.

by Oui on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 10:07:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

archive Thu Jan 30th, 2020

Sadly, mental disorder is a communicable disease, too.

by Cat on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 05:56:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You forgot best part.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross suggested Thursday that the viral outbreak in China might offer an unexpected benefit for the U.S. economy: It could encourage American manufacturers in China to return to the United States.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 06:07:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
heh.
by Cat on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 10:25:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The point is he was speaking from the experience of other communicable diseases, and much was unknown about the novel Coronavirus, Covid-19. Hell, much is still unknown- like the long term effects of infection, like post viral disease syndrome with ME type symptoms, prolonged brain fog, and how long immunity lasts after infection.

I have a friend who swears he got it twice - but living in the UK he couldn't get a test first time around.  Recent research also shows that people with mental disorder are far more likely to get the disease - again the exact reasons for this are up for debate.

We don't know enough about how often in is communicated through aerosols, through tiny droplets in coughts/sneezes etc., through contact with infected surfaces, and for how long it remains active at various temperatures on various types of surfaces. There is still debate over how effective standard issue face-masks are at prevention, and to what extent children can be vectors.

So I think its a bit over the top blaming medics for not having gotten everything right from day one. It's very easy being wise after the event, and everyone's a virologist now. Undermining what public health expertise we do have is not helpful, as the prevalence of the second wave now shows only too well - in large part enabled by people not following the best available public health advice.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 11:00:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Your friend is not unique. We have some friends who had it in April - all the symptoms, not officially confirmed because there were no tests - and who now have it again, officially confirmed.

Which might suggest that a good few of the current cases are reinfections, albeit milder this time around.

And I agree about Fauci. Non-scientists seem to expect science to have instant perfect knowledge, and don't seem to understand that the scientific process is about continuous experimentation and refinement. Which - unfortunately - takes time.

But the fact that knowledge isn't absolute doesn't mean that the random opinion of a drive-by nobody on YouTube is just as valid as that of an experienced epidemiologist. It isn't. The science will get to a workable answer more quickly, and will be less likely to be horribly wrong along the way. Even if this still takes a while.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 11:27:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All of which severely restricts the possibility that an effective vaccine will ever be found, if the immunity it confers only lasts a few weeks/months.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 12:07:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe. So far this wave seems to have fewer deaths, so it's not all bad news.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 09:25:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's been a research finding announced in Science that allows an additional approach.  But it's very early innings.

Neuropilin-1 facilitates SARS-CoV-2 cell entry and infectivity

The causative agent of coronavirus induced disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For many viruses, tissue tropism is determined by the availability of virus receptors and entry cofactors on the surface of host cells. Here, we found that neuropilin-1 (NRP1), known to bind furin-cleaved substrates, significantly potentiates SARS-CoV-2 infectivity, an effect blocked by a monoclonal blocking antibody against NRP1. A SARS-CoV-2 mutant with an altered furin cleavage site did not depend on NRP1 for infectivity. Pathological analysis of human COVID-19 autopsies revealed SARS-CoV-2 infected cells including olfactory neuronal cells facing the nasal cavity positive for NRP1. Our data provide insight into SARS-CoV-2 cell infectivity and define a potential target for antiviral intervention.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 03:47:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On or before 30 Jan, Fauci possessed all the knowledge needed to broadcast the most RUDIMENTARY prophylactic message to people foolish enough to trust his "expertise" and past "leadership" (not) controlling infectious disease at home and abroad.

ALL coronaviruses are respiratory pathogens--INHALED and EXHALED with air. THIS coronavirus is dangerous to your health. Chinese authorities fucking barricaded the city Wuhan to prevent ANYONE there from infecting other populations.

UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, ALWAYS cover your mouth and nose in crowded locations. ALWAYS wash hands and common articles.

But he didn't do that. Moreover, he heaped mendacity on calumny of Trump's admin: Feb 17, 2020 | Top disease official: Risk of coronavirus in USA is 'minuscule'; skip mask and wash hands

The salient point is, Fauci should have retired from office with a fat pension 20 years ago, BUT his vanity got in the way of common sense and, evidently, the sincerity of admirers who continue to defend the dereliction of his duties.

by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 01:18:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

oh.

by Cat on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 12:51:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 01:09:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Charles Cook is the widely respected doyen of US national politics.  When he says talks people, especially the Big Money People, listen.

... [in] the presidential race, where something pretty major would have to happen to bring President Trump up to an even competitive position. The new NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll puts Joe Biden 12 points ahead of Trump, 54 to 42 percent, not much different from the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which puts Biden's lead at 11 points, 53 to 42 percent.

and

The key is that if Trump continues to trail Biden badly and be significantly outspent, do disappointed Republicans stay home, with dramatic down ballot implications from the Senate to congressional seats and into state-legislative chambers as well?
 

Not what a candidate and a party want to hear with early voting going against you, 2 weeks from election day.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 02:59:13 PM EST
REUTERSplainin 6 states weekly opinion polls
and
U.S. Election Project total ballots voted, total ballots requested (h/t Oui)

total voters (2018) census, tables

limitations of the data and statistical imaginations
archived "exit polling"

by Cat on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 06:11:41 PM EST
Fourth Circuit Keeps in Place NC Ballot Deadline Extension
"Because plaintiffs have not established a likelihood of success on the merits--and because, in any event, [precedent requires] that we not intervene at this late stage--we rightly decline to enter an injunction pending appeal."
damn originalists ahh textualists ahh fascists
by Cat on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 06:54:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Be Patient, [secretaries of state] Say as States Gear Up for Long Ballot Count
Some states, like Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Maine, have already begun counting mail-in ballots. But many other states have regulations that prevent election officials from opening a single ballot until the polls close.
How many exactly? Which ones? Don't expect the press corpse to investigate that.
by Cat on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 07:01:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
U.S. Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to block North Carolina absentee ballot extension,
3 Nov + nine (9) days. RNC wasted a lot of MSM buys on attys. Sad.
by Cat on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 12:25:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
California AG Asks Court to Intervene in Ballot Box Fight With State GOP

"Our work to ensure that all voters have confidence that their vote will count moves forward. To the extent that unauthorized ballot drop boxes are redeployed, our investigation is ongoing and we will act where necessary. We ask all Californians: if you see something, say something. It's going to take all of us working together to stand up for our right to vote and ensure a free and fair election."
Phew! "Demographic" descriptions of these outlaws will have to wait for paranormal APsplainin.
by Cat on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 07:16:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We don't speculate': How AP counts votes and calls races
"Shortly before polls close, roughly 4,000 stringers -- temporary freelancers -- arrive at county election offices."
by Cat on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 08:45:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Supreme Court Allows [AL secretary of state] to Block Curbside Voting
application for stay of US district ct order, pending plaintiff Howard Porter, et al's appeal to 11th cir
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 05:43:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
6th Cir denies emergency injunction of ancient voter-transportation law enforcement
As described above, the legislature's likelihood of success on appeal is high. We now
consider the remaining factors relevant to granting a stay. The harm to the legislature without a
stay would be irreparable: November 3, 2020, will only happen once, and the legislature would
lose its ability to regulate paid voter transportation for that election. Although prosecutions for
illicit vote-buying would still be possible, enforcement would be far more difficult, requiring
proof of a quid pro quo. And any vote-hauling [1895 act] fraud that does occur would still have affected
the election itself.
RNC, MI legislature (appellants) v. Priorities U.S.A. et al.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 06:51:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
statisticians
19th Century Polling Laws to Stop Parties Kidnapping Voters May Be Inadequate This Time
"This is why we now have secret, government-printed ballots rather than party-provided ballots" a/k/a "straight-line" ballots, hmm

50 million people have already voted. Here's how that compares with past elections.
All presidential elections in the last 50 years, ranked by highest eligible voter turnout rate (61.65%)

by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 08:31:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania Supreme Court says ballots can't be rejected based on signature comparisons, unanimous opinion
"We conclude that the Election Code does not authorize or require county election boards to reject absentee or mail-in ballots during the canvassing process based on an analysis of a voter's signature," the state Supreme Court wrote in an opinion signed by six of the seven justices, including five Democrats and one Republican.

The seventh justice, another Republican, concurred with the ruling.

99% certain RNC of PA won't be returning to SCOTUS for a second helping of "no".
by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 08:20:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[SCOTUS] leaves in place Pennsylvania's Nov. 6 deadline for return of ["segregated"] ballots
Scalito dissent "acknowledged there was not enough time to hear and decide the challenge by Tuesday"; Anti-RBG reclined; Kavanaugh balked at the plate < wipes tears >
by Cat on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 11:14:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Judge throws out Trump campaign lawsuit against New Jersey's election plans
"Plaintiffs have alleged nothing more than the possibility of future injury to their members," U.S. District Court Judge Michael Shipp wrote in his ruling.
Politico offers alternative "context", because of course a recitation of factual history of Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.'s lawsuit in the opinion is unintelligible to English-language readers.
by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 10:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Texas appeals court says state may not limit ballot drop-off sites
Texas 3rd Court of Appeals agreed with the lower court that limiting the number of drop boxes would increase the risk that voters could get infected with COVID-19, and would infringe on their right to vote.
the other California v Texass battle for the soul of our bumper sticker
by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 10:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
late inning wut
Texas High Court [reverses TX 3rd Cir, affirms US 5th Cir] Order Limiting Early Ballot Drop-Off Sites
[Gov.] Abbott's July order extended the early voting period by six days and allowed counties to accept absentee ballot drop-offs for 40 days starting Sept. 19, instead of just on Election Day
[...]
"The Governor's October Proclamation provides Texas voters more ways to vote in the November 3 election than does the Election Code. It does not disenfranchise anyone," the order states.
Abbott v "incensed Democrats in their strongholds of El Paso, Austin, Dallas and Houston"
by Cat on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 11:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
["]Tribal Voting["]
Pascua Yaqui denied an emergency preliminary injunction seeking to compel Pima County, AZ, to open an in-person early voting site within the boundaries of its reservation.
by Cat on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 08:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
U.S. Supreme Court [denies review of 7th Circuit ruling enjoining] extension in Wisconsin mail-in ballot deadline
In a 2-1 ruling, a three-judge panel of the Chicago-based 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals blocked [US district court]'s earlier ruling allowing a six-day extension in the ballot-receipt deadline.
alrighty then. iirc, state or inferior cts have reversed 4/5 ballot count xtnded deadlines.
by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 02:03:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, ET AL. v. WISCONSIN STATE LEGISLATURE, ET AL.
(SWENSON, JILL, ET AL. V. WI STATE LEGISLATURE, ET AL first instance)
APPLICATION TO VACATE STAY, majority rational (JJ. Kavanaugh) for denying DNC review of 7th cir, 26 Oct
This Court has consistently stated that the Constitution principally entrusts politically accountable state legislatures, not unelected federal judges, with the responsibility to address the health and safety of the people during the COVID-19 pandemic.

REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE, et al. v. DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, et al.
PER CURIAM granting ltd stay of district ct injunction; minority rational (JJ. Kagan) for denying RNC application, 6 Apr
Election officials have spent the past few days establishing procedures and informing voters in accordance with the District Court's deadline. For this Court to upend the process--a day before the April 7 postmark deadline--is sure to confound election officials and voters.

reference, Sheldon Whitehouse Axes of Amicus Briefs
Motion for leave to file amicus brief filed by Election Law Scholars.
by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 06:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
6.5 million eligible voters currently live outside of the US
It is estimated that 6.5 million eligible America voters live outside of the US. This constituency, if it were one of the 50 states, would be the 13th largest in the union - between Massachusetts and Virginia. The individuals who make up this constituency have a perspective of America different than those of us who live inside the US. Being an American living abroad offers a unique view of America and its role in the world that many of us who live here do not perceive. It is important that this voice be heard in our election.

Many Americans living abroad will have their ballots counted in very important swing states. Votes from abroad recently made the difference in a senate race in New Hampshire, a governor's race in North Carolina, and a statewide race in Florida. In the contest between Hillary Clinton and Trump in 2016 the difference of 107,000 votes spread across the three key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin tilted the entire election. The margin in Michigan was less than 11,000 votes.

Could the issues facing the US in 2020 be more challenging? More than 200,000 Americans have died as a result Covid-19. As a result of the pandemic, the economy is in crisis. Unusual wildfires and hurricanes are rampant. Racial tensions are at an all-time high. Questions of corruption and conflicts of interest raise suspicions and severely tests our rule of law. For the first time in any of our lifetimes, the legitimacy of our national election is being called into question and confusion may swirl around its results. Americans living outside of the US have a unique vantage point to view these challenges and a unique perspective on their resolution. American law seeks that wisdom as part of our election process.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 11:22:40 PM EST
Pope Francis backs same-sex civil unions | The Guardian |

Pope Francis's conservative opponents have been infuriated by statements that they regard as part of an effort to shift the the church towards progressive values. Some have publicly attacked him, even accusing him of heresy.

Nor Trump, nor Mrs. Barrett can expect an invitation to the Holy See soon. US Catholic Bishops live in the past of fascism and dictators.

Some moments of optimism ...

I'm done with the Knights of Columbus

by Oui on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 04:15:41 PM EST
by Oui on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 04:35:07 PM EST
Great links in your two comments above...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 06:09:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
😊 ... appreciated
by Oui on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 08:20:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Total Early Votes: 42,372,793 * Mail Ballots: 30,472,639 * In-Person Votes: 11,900,154

In states with registration by party

Democrats          9,969,350             52.0
Republicans          5,010,294             26.1
Minor                    108,568              0.6
No Party Affiliation 4,097,440             21.4
TOTAL                 19,185,652             100.0

Thus we have registration figures for 45% of votes cast to date.
Assuming those 45% are representative of the whole country, the total votes cast would be roughly:

Democrats         22,018,000             52.0
Republicans         11,066,000             26.1
Minor                    230,000              0.6
No Party             9,049,000             21.4
TOTAL                 42,372,793             100.0

Assuming party members vote for their party candidate, that means Dems have an 11 Million lead at the moment with 31% of the 2016  turnout in. Polls indicate more independents lean Dem, so let us split the Independent vote 5:4 to Dems, giving them a total 12 million vote lead.

If the turnout is similar to 2016 (138 Million), and the remainder of the vote is split 50:50, this represents a 75M to 63M lead, or a 54.4% to 45.6% win - a margin of 9%, or roughly what the opinion polls are predicting.

So basically Dems need to get 50% of the vote still to come to win by 9 points.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 12:41:36 AM EST
by Oui on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 06:05:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Electoral college apportionment is not well understood.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 03:03:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh yes it is, but in this post I am only looking at early indicators of initial nationwide trends. There is no electoral model of electoral college apportionment which does not have Biden winning if he has anything like a 9% lead in the popular vote.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 05:49:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, right. Hillary won the popular vote.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 09:50:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To Protect Your Vote From Socialists

Minnesota attorney general launches investigation into company accused of hiring armed guards as poll watchers | ABC News |

According to the lawsuit, Atlas Aegis posted an advertisement on Facebook seeking former U.S. Special Operations personnel to protect businesses, polls and residences from "looting and destruction." The post has since been deleted.

The lawsuit cites an interview Atlas Aegis Chairman Anthony Caudle gave to The Washington Post confirming the authenticity of the Facebook post.

Caudle tells The Post the armed security personnel would not be seen unless there was a problem and that some of the personnel would be there to protect against Antifa.

"They're there for protection, that's it," he said. "They're there to make sure that the Antifas don't try to destroy the election sites."

by Oui on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 05:51:40 AM EST
Coincidence? I think not. MN is a LEOBOR state, because MN electorate installed legislators to ahh protect and serve their "use of force" with impunity.

by Cat on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 08:51:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
New poll from University of Texas has Biden +3 in Texas.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 03:24:33 PM EST
Looking forward to my $2500 BOOST stim checks starting (checks watch) 14 Feb, Valentine's Day.
by Cat on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 04:54:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LA Dodgers A$$holes
Risks health of teammates for celebration and team photo ... even going maskless ... flying back to LA? Do hope on a chartered flight for team and staff ... soon you'll be celebrating a perfect Dodgers owned super spreader cluster as team's contribution to CA pandemic ... may God have mercy 😠 on America.

LA star third baseman Justin Turner (nr. 10) removed during game because of positive test ... geez there are more important issues than sitting next to a WS Trophy!

by Oui on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 10:13:07 AM EST
by Oui on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 10:19:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 09:08:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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