by ATinNM
Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 05:32:31 PM EST
Started out as a quick comment to Franks' "It Ain't Over 'Till It's Over' diary and got carried away.
Frontpaged - Frank Schnittger
Alabama: D held due to a special election.
Certain to flip. Alabama is a quintessential ignorant hick Evangelical bigot state. Tuberville is coasting to victory.
Prognosis: D to R flip
North Carolina: R held
I thought the Democratic Party candidate Cunningham had blown his chances when his sexting was all over the news. I was wrong. He has shrugged it off and is now polling +5.2% in an polling average going back 1 week. Not great but well outside the MOE.
Prognosis: R to D flip
Alaska: R held
Who knows. There is scant polling. Alaskans define the term "self-regarding pig ignorants" but were shocked and annoyed by the fact Trump destroyed the ability of the Post Office to make fast delivery of necessary goods, e.g., pharmaceuticals. Anecdotally Gross, the Dem candidate, is doing good but Who Knows?
Prognosis: Who Knows?
Arizona: R held
The Democratic Party candidate Kelly is mopping the floor with McSally. Seven day polling average has Kelly ahead by 8.7%
Prognosis: D to R flip
Texas: R held
It says a lot about this election that we're even talking about Texas. There's very little polling, the seven day average has Cornyn ahead by 6.3%, the most recent has him with a 3% lead. Cornyn is a ignoramus who said on Saturday people need to vote for him otherwise the Democrats would sweep the Senate and hold all the 104 seats. Out of 100 possible. Hegar, the Dem candidate, is an idiot who publicly stated she never voted for Obama -- a real voter getter among the AA community, I'm sure. There are some encouraging trends in Texas but not this year with this candidate.
Prognosis: R hold
Colorado: R held
Not much needing to be said. Hickenlooper is well ahead with a 9.4% seven day polling average.
Prognosis: R to D flip
Maine: R held
Senator Collins has been a survivor by saying one thing in Maine and doing another in DC. She's tied herself to Trump who is deeply unpopular - negative 19 points in the most recent poll - and she's made some deeply unpopular Senate votes. There's very little polling. What there is has Gideon ahead.
Prognosis: R to D flip
Georgia: R held and R held
Who the hell knows. There are two Senate seats up for grabs. Georgia has a run off system requiring the winning candidates - in this case - to get over 50% of the vote. There's eleventy million people running for the seats and very little quality polling. The most recent have both official Dem candidates doing extremely well considering Georgia is Yet Another ignorant hick Evangelical bigot state.
IF Biden carries the state - & I can't believe I'm typing those words - the Senate seats will follow. If not ... not?
Prognosis: Who the hell knows?
Iowa: R held
No recent quality polling. Presidential polling has an effect tie. Iowa went for Trump by 9% in 2016 so Republicans do have the edge there. The most recent Approval/Disapproval have Trump down 19% among all adults giving the edge to Democrats. Senator Ernst isn't that popular but she is the incumbent, so nods to her for that.
Another case of: if Biden takes the state the Senate seat will probably follow, if not then maybe.
Prognosis: Who Knows but with a slight edge to the Dem
Michigan: R held
Trump is deeply unpopular. The Republican senator is deeply unpopular and under the water in polling. The Democratic candidate Peters has all the advantages and has yet to make a major goof.
Prognosis: R to D flip
Kansas: R held
I'm only mentioning this because there's been recent yakkity-yak about this as a possible D flip. It Won't.
Prognosis: R hold
Montana: R held
This one is interesting. Scant polling with the most recent giving the incumbent Daines a 2 point lead. The Democratic candidate Bullock was a 2 term governor winning the last election by 4% over his GOP challenger. Trump is deeply unpopular in the state. Because of the last two I'm giving Bullock the win.
Prognosis: R to D flip
South Carolina: R held
In a weird election year SC is the weirdest. Most recent internal polling by Harrison, the challenger, gives him the edge. This is supported by Graham screaming for help and money. On the other hand SC is a ignorant hick Evangelical bigot state and Harrison is black. Polling has Trump winning the state by 7.3% and it's hard to see Graham losing if Trump does take it.
Prognosis: R hold
Final Projected Totals:
Republicans: flip one
Dems: flip six <---- means Dems take control of the Senate
Who Knows?: four