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US Senate Elections

by ATinNM Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 05:32:31 PM EST

Started out as a quick comment to Franks' "It Ain't Over 'Till It's Over' diary and got carried away.

Frontpaged - Frank Schnittger

Alabama: D held due to a special election.

Certain to flip.  Alabama is a quintessential ignorant hick Evangelical bigot state.  Tuberville is coasting to victory.

Prognosis: D to R flip

North Carolina: R held  

I thought the Democratic Party candidate Cunningham had blown his chances when his sexting was all over the news.  I was wrong.  He has shrugged it off and is now polling +5.2% in an polling average going back 1 week.  Not great but well outside the MOE.

Prognosis: R to D flip

Alaska:  R held

Who knows.  There is scant polling.  Alaskans define the term "self-regarding pig ignorants" but were shocked and annoyed by the fact Trump destroyed the ability of the Post Office to make fast delivery of necessary goods, e.g., pharmaceuticals.  Anecdotally Gross, the Dem candidate, is doing good but Who Knows?

Prognosis:  Who Knows?

Arizona:  R held

The Democratic Party candidate Kelly is mopping the floor with McSally.  Seven day polling average has Kelly ahead by 8.7%

Prognosis: D to R flip

Texas:  R held

It says a lot about this election that we're even talking about Texas.  There's very little polling, the seven day average has Cornyn ahead by 6.3%, the most recent has him with a 3% lead.  Cornyn is a ignoramus  who said on Saturday people need to vote for him otherwise the Democrats would sweep the Senate and hold all the 104 seats.  Out of 100 possible.  Hegar, the Dem candidate, is an idiot who publicly stated she never voted for Obama -- a real voter getter among the AA community, I'm sure.  There are some encouraging trends in Texas but not this year with this candidate.

Prognosis:  R hold

Colorado:  R held

Not much needing to be said.  Hickenlooper is well ahead with a 9.4% seven day polling average.  

Prognosis:  R to D flip

Maine:  R held

Senator Collins has been a survivor by saying one thing in Maine and doing another in DC.  She's tied herself to Trump who is deeply unpopular - negative 19 points in the most recent poll - and she's made some deeply unpopular Senate votes.  There's very little polling.  What there is has Gideon ahead.

Prognosis: R to D flip

Georgia:  R held and R held

Who the hell knows.  There are two Senate seats up for grabs.  Georgia has a run off system requiring the winning candidates - in this case - to get over 50% of the vote. There's eleventy million people running for the seats and very little quality polling.  The most recent have both official Dem candidates doing extremely well considering Georgia is Yet Another ignorant hick Evangelical bigot state.

IF Biden carries the state - & I can't believe I'm typing those words - the Senate seats will follow.  If not ... not?  

Prognosis:  Who the hell knows?

Iowa:  R held

No recent quality polling. Presidential polling has an effect tie.  Iowa went for Trump by 9% in 2016 so Republicans do have the edge there.  The most recent Approval/Disapproval have Trump down 19% among all adults giving the edge to Democrats. Senator Ernst isn't that popular but she is the incumbent, so nods to her for that.  

Another case of: if Biden takes the state the Senate seat will probably follow, if not then maybe.

Prognosis: Who Knows but with a slight edge to the Dem

Michigan: R held

Trump is deeply unpopular.  The Republican senator is deeply unpopular and under the water in polling.  The Democratic candidate Peters has all the advantages and has yet to make a major goof.

Prognosis: R to D flip

Kansas: R held

I'm only mentioning this because there's been recent yakkity-yak about this as a possible D flip.  It Won't.

Prognosis:  R hold

Montana: R held

This one is interesting.  Scant polling with the most recent giving the incumbent Daines a 2 point lead. The Democratic candidate Bullock was a 2 term governor winning the last election by 4% over his GOP challenger.  Trump is deeply unpopular in the state.  Because of the last two I'm giving Bullock the win.

Prognosis: R to D flip

South Carolina:  R held

In a weird election year SC is the weirdest. Most recent internal polling by Harrison, the challenger, gives him the edge.  This is supported by Graham screaming for help and money.  On the other hand SC is a ignorant hick Evangelical bigot state and Harrison is black.  Polling has Trump winning the state by 7.3% and it's hard to see Graham losing if Trump does take it.

Prognosis: R hold

Final Projected Totals:

Republicans: flip one

Dems: flip six <----  means Dems take control of the Senate

Who Knows?: four

Display:
US Senate Elections | 69 comments (69 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 3)
Agree with almost all you say except Georgia. Only the Special Senate election there is a "jungle primary with lots of candidates. This will likely lead to a run-off election in January which could have very low turnout and so much depends on which side is better motivated to vote. Could go Dem if Trump is still trying to hold on to power.

The other election is a standard election basically between Ossoff (Dem) and Perdue (GOP, incumbant) with most aggregators giving Perdue a slight edge although Quinnipiac University recently had Ossoff +6.

I would have both elections in the toss-up category but the problem with Dems winning elections in conservative states like this is that they then vote so conservatively, they might as well be Republicans. You need a candidate who's happy to do the job properly for 6 years and not to concerned with re-election after that. Otherwise the evangelicals and money men have you by the balls.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 07:08:59 PM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 4)
Georgia: it's inching away from the "hick Evangelical bigot state" of its neighbors. Especially around metro Atlanta with a lot of "tech" industry and the demographic changes that come with it, like a increasingly large Asian population. Some areas North of Atlanta are looking more like the Bay area (without the Bay and with few mountains).

OK, it's just metro Atlanta, but this is still a sizable proportion of GA population.

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:23:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)
There has been a general population movement from northern states to the sun belt (partly due to the availability of air conditioning and mosquito control) with many high tech industries moving there to take advantage of lower labour and other costs. The growth of Latino/Hispanic and other minority populations has also increased diversity, especially in more urban and suburban areas. I sometimes get the impression the deep south is changing more than the mid west bible and rust beltsM

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 08:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 3)
Metro ATL is about half the state population.  It's not the comically large share that (say) Vegas is in Nevada, but it's quite large as a share.

It also has far fewer non-college whites than a lot of southern states, and it's much more urban/suburban.

The real story, if there winds up being one, will probably be Biden eating into the northern suburbs (Gwinnett County, Cobb County, etc).  It's the "college-educated white people -- especially women -- don't like Trump" story.  Clinton carried those counties pretty narrowly.  Stacey Abrams then won them soundly.  I figure Biden's got to hit about 60% in Gwinnett to have a real shot.

Again, that's all a big if.  Gun to my head, I'd still probably bet on Trump holding on to it, but it should be pretty close.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 12:06:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 0)
Democrats have traditionally raised most of their campaign money from out of state. As Fritz Hollings, former Democratic Senator from South Carolina said: "There is no money for a Democrat in South Carolina." California to the rescue. Jamie Harraison, Black Democratic challenger to Lindsey Graham, set a record for funds raised recently. Most came from out of state contributions.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 01:40:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 5)
Re Maine:
Susan Collins got the vote in Maine repeatedly because this overwhelmingly independent, libertarian minded blue-ish State bought her "I work reasonably across the aisle" Merkel-Style. Two things broke her in the polls: Trumps tax cuts and the Kavanaugh vote. Both her "reasonaby centrist" blue supporters and white women turned on her because of these two decisions. I doubt she will get reelected.

As for Maine's congress votes: Since the last election 2018 Maine no longer has FPTP but ranked choice voting for congress seats, which allows the tendentially independent-minded non-Republican voters to give their independent candidate the vote first, and pick a democrat second -- which led to the election of Jared Golden (D) in the traditionally red northern congressional district. Given that new system, Reps have to learn the hard lesson that confrontational politics don't work: you need to attract secondary votes too, which means you can't throw around insults and need to make sense. Divisionary tactics fail. The Democrats had this down right away, and partially campaigned together on one stage with independents in some settings, where both could say on stage "vote for me first, and the other here second". It worked.
Other states might follow... multi party politics in the US... who'd ever thunk it...

by Averett on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 10:11:14 PM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 2)
As regards your second point, you may be interested in this diary

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 20th, 2020 at 10:41:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 4)
I'd like to comment on a point in that link:
Gerrymandering, with constituency boundaries not being determined by an independent commission after every census, as in Ireland

It often comes up here in Illinois. The problem with those proposals is that there is no such thing as a independent non-political commissioners.  Everyone has a political agenda.  So instead of a commission you need a formula. Also not perfect bu5t also not subject to bribery or political influence.  Another suhhestion is more radical. One representative, one vote was fine for the 8th Century, but now there is no reason not to have representatives of pretty fixed regions who have votyes proportional to the population of that region, instantly tabulated electronically. i.e. Congressman from Chicago gets 3 million votes. Congressman from Southern Illinois gets 200,000 votes, et cetera. I would suggest districts by County/City (not counting twice) with those proportionate votes.
by StillInTheWilderness on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 01:23:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 4)
I think the two-party structure in the US makes it harder to have an independent commission, and even a formula needs to be interpreted.

On carrying the votes I would then suggest the elected get the votes of the people actually voting for him or her instead. Then you create a permanent incintive to actually get votes rather then depressing opponents turn-out.

by fjallstrom on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 11:23:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 3)
Excellent suggestion.  One of my favorites is "None of the above" for every office. If "none of the above wins" an election must be rescheduled WITHOUT any candidat3e from the previous inconclusive ballot. "If God wanted us to vote he would have given us real candidates."
Jimmy Carter vs Ronald Reagan? Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump?  Why not Donald Duck vs Goofy?

Another real world election, Louisiana Governor 1991, Grand Dragon David duke vs convicted felon Edwin Edwards.
In the words of Author George Alec Effinger (a citizen of New Orleans), "What a choice! A crook or a Nazi! I think I'll move to Texas."

by StillInTheWilderness on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 10:51:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)
I think Russia has had that, I vaguely remember "none of the above" winning some elections in the 90ies, triggering new elections in those seats.
by fjallstrom on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 08:26:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The enemy within (4.00 / 4)
The far right has succeeded in politicising everything, including science, geology, meteorology, climate science, medicine, healthcare, pregnancy, gender identification, human rights and basic administrative competence. Creating viable brands which appeal to certain markets, has supplanted any notion of objective truth, and the very process of government has been vilified as evil as it interferes with the power of corporations and billionaires.

In such a sick society everything becomes problematic. I sometimes think the Civil War didn't really resolve anything, and was merely replaced by a low intensity guerrilla war eating at the fabric of US society. A healthy society simply cannot function in the absence of a consensus on some basic principles, and politics becomes little more than a surrogate for a continuance of war.

You need another revolution, only this time the enemy is not the British empire. It is within you.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 12:43:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The enemy within (4.00 / 2)
Nice essay: Capitalism at War | Warwick College |

The bloodiest strife is between brethren of one nation - a Civil War. Apparently an armistice is never longlasting as we observe across the globe. The Red States and Blue States is not a controversy but an ideological split. Create two separate nations and sign a peace deal ... each their own Constitution, creates peace of mind as a minimum.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 02:25:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The enemy within (none / 0)
Not just the right. It's the DNC's playbook also.

On other blogs the discussion is who sucks worse, Trump or Biden. Personally, I'm voting green, but without ranked choice voting, no third party has a chance.

by StillInTheWilderness on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 10:53:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The enemy within (none / 0)
Just don't come here complaining if Trump gets a second or even a third term and you never get to vote again. People voting Green in a bipolar system is the reason he got in in the first place.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 11:06:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The enemy within (none / 0)
With respect, frank, "Bullshit!" Democrats playing footsie with the Wall Street banks and corporations is why we have Trump. Obama running on universal health care then giving us a Republican think tank plan is why Trump was elected. Add in a dash of endless wars with the Ghoul-in-Cheif killing people remotely from the White House like it was a video game and Hillary, the stuck up snob from Park Ridge sneering at blue collar workers and you get Trump.  Now I'm supposed to cut my own throat by voting for the the author of The Catfood Commission? I'm retired, Frank. I need my COLA's. No chained-CPI for me.
I'm not going to starve in my old age so that (D)'s can get bigger Wall Street bribes.

My choice was not Biden or Hawkins. My choice was Trump or Hawkins and if Trump had a ghost of a chance in Illinois, I would hold my gorge and vote for Trump. As the lesser evil. Biden wants me homeless.

Of the nine primary candidates there were at least five I could have voted for. And maybe seven. The two I was enthusiastic about were Sanders (fooled me twice now, never again) and Gabbard. The two I would definitely never vote for even as dog-catcher were Biden and Harris.

by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 12:32:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks a bunch! (none / 1)
Well if you think Trump is better than Biden, its logical to vote that way. I wish you luck, and a happy retirement.

From a European perspective, Trump has been a disaster, much worse than Obama/Biden, but then we don't get to vote. We just have to live with the consequences of Covid, climate change, wars in the middle east, refugees, global trade wars, Brexit, the undermining of respect for international laws, institutions and human rights, and general political instability. Thanks a bunch!

It seems I was right to give up on the USA after Trump was elected, and will probably ignore it again for the next four years if he wins. It's just too painful to watch. Hitler put bread on the table for a lot of poor families in Germany as well, but if you can't understand the difference between him and the conservative incompetents he replaced, your family obviously didn't have to live through WW2.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 01:02:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Thanks a bunch! (4.00 / 2)
Trump voters dune rally: "he's an alpha male"

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 06:48:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You ain't black! (none / 0)
Look, fat.
Go vote for Trump.

BONUS Obama Aides Defend Bank's Pay to Biden Son, 24 Aug 2008
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 02:01:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The enemy within (none / 0)
Why do you think "Biden wants you homeless"? What does that sentence even mean?
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 09:23:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The enemy within (none / 1)
I suppose, "Biden wants you homeless," alludes to Joe's well-known, self-professed representation of banking and finance corporations (eg. MBNA) who hold and trade mortgage notes that precipitated GD IV, panic of '08. Of course, DJT is a notorious beneficiary of bankrupt US regulatory regimes.

More significant, neither POTUS candidate nor congressional candidates are running on alleviating imminent mortgage defaults and rent relief, attributable to unemployment. Moratorium provisions of CARES act and states' emergency EOs, suspending legal processing, have expired. Federal emergency funded UI (all claims, "benefit years") expires 31 Dec.

Notwithstanding states' legislatures pervasive indifference to homeless camps or financing affordable housing for long-term unemployed and low-income individuals and family populations ("disproportionately" ethnic minority)--preceding pandemic conditions. CA and PA are high-profile microcosms of disenfranchisement and venal imperatives that have irked dismal, "nonessential" middle-classes across the nation.

by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 02:24:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The enemy within CA (none / 1)
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 09:51:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The enemy within (none / 1)
The sad truth, however, is MD tenancy law is no where as mature as that of NY. So successful pro bono defense here swims hard upstream.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 10:05:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PS (none / 1)
The fed and Treasury's decade-long ZIRP target (benefiting banks' profitability) suppresses COLA to social security insurance payments. So benefits have not been rising with CPI (no matter how the leisure economists cut the "core" from reported price inflation) for quite a long time.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 02:32:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The enemy within (none / 0)
Actually it was Nader's fault.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 01:49:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The enemy within (4.00 / 3)
Nader is basically Hitler, but Bush is good now.

by generic on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 02:15:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
est'd. 1971 (4.00 / 2)
by Cat on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 11:02:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)
Those "who knows" cases translate into "protracted lawsuits"
by asdf on Wed Oct 21st, 2020 at 05:10:42 PM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 3)
If the Democrats have control of the Senate, even if relying on the VP to break a tie, the Democrats will decide the fate of the contested elections.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 01:50:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)
Yes, but Democrats may only have control of the senate if they win those contested elections!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 10:33:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 4)
If Georgia Senate seats are even contestable it is highly likely that there are at least four uncontestable newly elected Democratic Senators.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 12:03:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 4)
Namely, Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, with Iowa, Montana also possibilities.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 12:06:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 3)
Trump seems to have written off the senate, but apparently thinks the GOP can get control of the house, which seems pretty unlikely.

My view is that Biden's administration will pursue generic centrist democrat policies in the same way that Obama's ("most liberal senator!!!") ended up not exactly being radically leftist. Harris et al. will apply some pressure, but all these fantastical theories about a socialist takeover are just that: fantastical.

by asdf on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 08:19:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 3)
Hasn't the opposite happened too? Senate GOP having written Trump off and concentrating on sabotaging an upcoming Biden administration? (this and saving their asses seats as much as they can)
by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 08:53:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 4)
It's confusing right now. If you have spent four years licking one guy's boots it might be hard to claim otherwise in the last two weeks of a tight election...
by asdf on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 09:32:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 3)
I heard a comment quoting McConnell this morning on NPR. He seemed to concede that the Republicans are likely to lose both the White House and the Senate but stated that Trump's three Supreme Court nominees would make a lasting impression on the country. I suspect that the new conservative majority, (even without Roberts), will be cautious in pressing their advantage due to concern about court expansion. Time will tell.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 01:56:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 2)
If the Dems do win the Senate I don't expect Majority Leader Chuck "Attack Chihuahua" Schumer to make any drastic changes.  He and the rest of the DLC will wring their hands and moan and groan they don't have all 5,619 Senate seats and thus can do nothing.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 05:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 3)
I predict a whole lot of reaching across the aisle.

It's possible some powder will be kept dry too.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 08:18:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)
I may have been too cynical about Georgia.

Georgia made more competitive by 1M new voters since '16 election

Nearly two-thirds of the new voters since the last presidential election are people of color. White voters make up over half, 53%, of all registered voters in Georgia.

Since these voters did not vote in 2016 they will most likely not pass the Likely Voter test and they've changed a history based political party percentages.  Both of these will FUBAR polling if not taken into account.

Getting the ignorant hick Evangelical bigots down to less than 53% of registered voters is a huge step forward in flipping the state.  Getting the EVs is meh? - nice but not necessary.  Getting two Senate seats is a Big Deal.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 04:01:37 PM EST
AJC link dive (4.00 / 3)
Rise of young and diverse Georgia voters may influence 2020 elections, Feb 2020
The most significant increases were among Hispanic and Asian voters, which are growing quickly but make up a relatively small portion of the state's voting population, about 6%. Black voters held steady at 33% of Georgia's electorate.
by Cat on Thu Oct 22nd, 2020 at 04:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 3)
And the Good News keeps on coming.

Suddenly, Nearly Anything Is Possible in the Senate Races

Perhaps the presidential debate on Thursday night might make a difference, but if swing voters have hit the mute switch or at least turned down the volume on President Trump, as I think they did after the previous debate, the event is likely to make little difference on the presidential outcome. There was a synchronized drop for many GOP candidates in the days immediately after that debate, suggesting that some of Trump's problems, particularly in the suburbs, have metastasized to other candidates--especially those who are close to their polarizing party leader.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Oct 23rd, 2020 at 03:11:55 PM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 2)
'This is not magic': Democrats work to make inroads in the South for the first time in decades | NBC News |

Even beyond Georgia, first-time and minority voters also have a large role in Democrats' prospects across the South. The region is, in some ways, at play for Democrats this election cycle, particularly in a number of Senate contests that are now neck and neck just ahead of Election Day.

Despite the political convention that Republicans hold a secure grip on the South, Democratic candidates are polling competitively in North Carolina, South Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas -- which together account for eight Senate seats and possibly the balance of power in the chamber.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 24th, 2020 at 10:39:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 4)
by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 07:49:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 3)
The worst of the worst ... epitome of distrust by the people in US Congress and its representatives ... political doctrine above care for the American people. Just like Trump I have tuned him out long ago ... personal health reasoning.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Oct 25th, 2020 at 09:29:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
smarter than yeast? (none / 1)
Senate to vote on Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation to Supreme Court following all-night Senate session
McConnell has repeatedly pointed to a rules change done by Democrats in 2013 that eliminated the 60-vote threshold required to passing certain judicial appointments. McConnell, using that precedent, broadened that change to include Supreme Court nominees in 2017 - a change that has allowed Republicans to pass nominees, likely including Barrett, in largely party-line votes.

The Senate voted 51-48 on Sunday to limit debate and end a Democratic filibuster. That means the chamber will likely vote to confirm Barrett sometime after 7:30 p.m. EDT Monday following 30 hours of debate. The vote to end debate fell along mostly party lines with Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., not voting.

And Kamala?! has promised to ruin the 200 y.o. threshold vote to end ("cloture") filibuster ("debate"), because the Reid Rule worked so well ha. ha. to confirm BHO nominees to inferior courts and now the DNC wants to "get things done" quickly.

reference
Filibuster and Cloture
Democrat/GOP Vote Tally on 1964 Civil Rights Act
-- 14 hours, 13 minutes
-- ROLL CALL
2005 - Public Favors Keeping Filibuster Rule in U.S. Senate
2017 - Senators are unlikely to heed Trump's advice [!] to kill the filibuster, experts say
2020 - Poll: 47 percent back limits on Senate filibuster

by Cat on Mon Oct 26th, 2020 at 06:38:29 PM EST
oops (none / 1)
It's over. Barrett confirmed 52-48 (checks watch) 5 minutes ago.

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE

by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 12:13:37 AM EST
Re: oops (4.00 / 2)
on to new business! floor proceedings: more cheeto-dictator confirmations confirmations!
by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 12:16:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: oops (none / 1)
With a Senate majority there is a chance to overturn and reverse this.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 02:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
impeach the Anti-RBG? (none / 0)
< wipes tears >
m'k. That's a plan. That's a plan more likely than "court packing" to immediately appease DNC donors and also light some fires under disaffected patriot preppers.

I'd rather erryone got a $2500/mo BOOST stim check for the duration, obviating further studies, investigations, and 2,100 pp bills to fund esoteric DOD, HHS, "democracy" and Green projects.

by Cat on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 03:55:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: oops (none / 1)
Well, there is the matter of Senate Committee rules. These were adopted for the duration of the session at the start of this Congress. The rules for the Senate Judiciary Committee state that for a Supreme Court nominee to advance to the floor two minority senators must vote for it. If the above is true, then McConnell violated his own rules. Except for pure power politics I do not see how that should fly. Unless I am missing something then the confirmation really is illegitimate.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 11:43:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: oops (4.00 / 2)
Senate  Consideration of Presidential Nominees Committee and Floor Procedures

On April 6, 2017, the Senate reinterpreted Rule XXII in order to allow cloture to be invoked on nominations by a majority of Senators voting, including Supreme Court justice nominations.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 01:27:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: oops (4.00 / 2)
FWIW, I dug up Rule XXII and XXI three (3) weeks ago, when the Anti-RBG nomination hit the twitterverse upside the head, to assure myself of which procedures Senate dems might avail themselves to delay vote in committee and floor confirmation. KEYWORD: quorum call. I had hoped--against all my low expectations--they'd pull a TX 11 with all sincerity in opposition and flee D.C. until 31 Dec, since passage of any stimulus bill is moot.

But all I got was a 8 hr "boycott" in committee.

by Cat on Wed Oct 28th, 2020 at 05:18:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 2)


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Oct 27th, 2020 at 08:41:33 PM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)
Monmouth University rated A+ by 538 dropped a bunch of Georgia polls today.  They have Warnock winning handily for the open seat and Ossoff leading Perdue within the MOE.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 03:58:28 AM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)
Can a broken clock be right for the second time?

'People Are Going To Be Shocked': Return of the 'Shy' Trump Voter?

The Trafalgar polls indicate a Trump Electoral College win ... again.

Florida presidential poll: Trump 48.4% beats Biden 46.1%

Robert Cahaly founder

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 03:03:01 PM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 2)
Neither Trafalgar nor Politico is a quality source of information.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 06:03:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 2)
Well aware of that, these people do exist. Will the election result be a statistical average of polls ... or will a poll come closest to the true result based on superior methodology? I'll opt for the latter. Performance of US polls have a poor track record on the presidential election since 2000 ... even the exit polls show discrepancies. It could be the large movement of voter opinion, or the influence of master minding the vote as Cambridge Analytica together with Facebook executed four years ago. I personally believe in a clear win for Joe Biden, contrary to my great doubt about Hillary Clinton in 2016. My estimate EC on the lower end is Biden 300 vs. Trump 240.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 09:40:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 2)
Trump Is Losing Ground With Some -- But Not All -- White Christians

Trump may have reason to worry about his level of support among white Catholics. Politicians and the media typically pay less attention to these voters during election season, but white Catholics are especially important to watch this year because they're a sizable group -- and they're concentrated in Rust Belt swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 10:24:33 PM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)
Wrong thread 🎃

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 31st, 2020 at 10:25:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 07:24:07 AM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 2)
Iowa Poll: Republicans preferred in 3 of 4 U.S. House races; Rep. Finkenauer appears at risk | Des Moines Register |

Trump pulls clear of Joe Biden in Iowa

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 10:46:07 AM EST
Re: US Senate Elections yawn (4.00 / 2)
Successful Farming, Sep 2020
quid pro quo
by Cat on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 02:06:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections yawn (none / 1)
MUTE reasoning ...

New USDA Records Show Trade Bailout and Coronavirus Payments Went to the Largest Farms

The bottom 80 percent of farms, the small- and mid-sized operations struggling the most, got just 23 percent of MFP payments, with an average per-farm payment of $9,109.

SCOTUS: Corporations are people too. 😡

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Nov 2nd, 2020 at 08:40:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)
Population of Iowa is old and white and ignorant - prime Trump supporters.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 03:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Senate Elections footnote (4.00 / 2)
Upside: Maryland is a same-day registration state!
Note: neither MD senator is up for 2020 election; not senate "Class I"!
by Cat on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 04:41:11 PM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 2)
Mitch McConnell re-elected in Kentucky.
Susan Collins re-elected in Maine.
by Bernard (bernard) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:31:42 PM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 11:43:40 AM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (4.00 / 2)


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Nov 6th, 2020 at 04:58:55 PM EST
Re: US Senate Elections (none / 1)
Republican Dan Sullivan re-elected in Alaska Senate race

This guarantees 50 seats in the US Senate for the Republican party. The Democrats need to sweep the Georgia double run-off elections that VP Harris has the deciding vote.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Nov 11th, 2020 at 06:21:51 PM EST
US Senate Elections | 69 comments (69 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)


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