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Harris wins Vice Presidential Debate

by Frank Schnittger Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 04:16:35 AM EST

The Vice Presidential debate ended with a slight win for Kamala Harris but is unlikely to change voting intentions to any significant degree. The moderator allowed Pence to constantly over-run his speaking time and interrupt Kamala Harris on hers, and made no attempt to ensure the candidates actually answered the question asked.


Kamala Harris played it safe, being in the lead, and didn't push back on the many dubious points he made and the many times he intruded on her time. Apparently a black women is not allowed to interrupt a white man or seem aggressive or assertive in response. The objective was not to "create a moment" but ensure that no potential support group was offended.

Pence articulated conservative talking points quite well, and certainly expressed them much more cogently than Trump. They bore little relationship to the facts or to the questions asked, but conservatives will be happy he expressed their ideology and talking points as well as could be expected in the circumstance. Most viewers will have been left frustrated that he rarely answered the question asked.

Kamala refused to answer the question as to whether they would pack the Supreme Court if Amy Comey Barrett is confirmed. It's hard to see a Joe Biden administration actually doing so, but the fact that they refuse to rule it out, puts the Supreme Court centre stage in the election. This may help to consolidate some conservative voters behind Trump. Equally the threat to Roe vs. Wade and the affordable Care act will consolidate liberal and moderate voters behind Biden.

So while the debate was considerably more civil than the first Presidential debate, it seems most unlikely that it will change voter intentions to any significant extent. CNN had Harris winning the debate 59-38% and her favourability rating went up from 56 to 63%, while Pence's favourability rating stayed constant at 41%. Their sample was, in their own words, slightly skewed Democrat, but that may only reflect the current underlying state of the race in the first place.

Display:
Given the state of the race, Pence needed to knock out Harris and Harris needed to not be knocked out. Looks like they both played according to taht and by not getting knocked out, Harris won.
by fjallstrom on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 07:47:42 AM EST
Commission: 2nd Trump-Biden debate will be 'virtual' amid concerns about Trump's COVID-19.
by Oui on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 11:40:20 AM EST

TRUMP SAYS "NO!" TO A VIRTUAL DEBATE 🙃

by Oui on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 12:09:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was hugely disappointed by Kamala Harris. I don't know if she can't think on her feet and was poorly prepared or if she was prepared specifically not to come across as an angry black woman, but her failure to grasp debate opportunities in the first 20 minutes led me to turn off the debate.

While they were on the first point, about COVID, would it really be so abstruse and aggressive for her to have brought up President Trump's dismissal and public ridicule of mask wearing and social distancing, or, even worse, his discouragement of his staff and family from wearing masks and following CDC recommendations, let alone his encouragement of his followers to flaunt CDC recommendations? Is this not an obvious point? Would it not have served better than bringing up her family and childhood?

This was supposed to be a debate, not a 'candidate meets the public' event. Participants were supposed to attempt to score points and discredit the other side. Pence had a pack of the usual lies. Harris had the truth, but didn't stoop to using it.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 02:36:24 PM EST
For Harris it was about introducing herself to a public who largely didn't know her and present herself as sympathetic and likeable. It really wasn't about winning an argument, and she used her time to present her agenda rather than respond much to his.

Yes, it was very frustrating to watch as she passed on a whole range of open goals.  The format didn't allow an open debate as even the moderator wasn't allowed to ask follow-up question or insist that her questions be answered.

Pence is a master at not answering the question and defending the indefensible, and even had the chutzpah to say (twice) that she was entitled to her own opinions but not to her own facts. This from a regime which invented "alternative facts" to allow themselves live in an alternate reality.

But I don't think you were the target audience for her: it was the low information, independent, uncommitted and swing voters she was trying to woo - basically by demonstrating she was a dignified and and caring person.

You may have missed out on an opportunity to see Pence lambasted, but you will have to bottle your frustration and vent it at the ballot box instead. All she had to do was not interfere with the current trajectory of the race.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:20:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I certainly hope you are correct, Frank. Yet I fail to see why it could possibly have hurt the Biden ticket for Harris to at least respond to Pence's allegations that she and Biden were undermining confidence in the vaccine by responding that, at least, her team was not encouraging their supporters to flout CDC recommendations regarding masks and social distancing. After all, is it really such a faux pas to act like it really is a debate at least occasionally?


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 05:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"This was supposed to be a debate..."

There's your problem.  It's not a debate in any reasonable definition.  It's a mutual press conference.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:21:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am only asking for an occasional pretense that it really is a debate. Is that too much?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 05:11:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not too much to ask.

Is too much to expect.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 06:28:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Kamala Harris failed completely already in the primaries, where she flip-flopped on every issue and came trough as a complete fraud and with a track record of hating the poor that even republicans would be shamed of.

She even lost her own state, California. So when she was picked as a veep candidate, she didn't actually bring anything to Biden's campaign. No new policies (she has none) and no new supporters (she has none).

Only thing she has going for her is ticking proper idpol boxes and thus being good at fundraising from the wealthy liberals. Her task in the "debate" was to convince the DNC donors that "nothing will change" - rich will still get richer during Har...Biden administration.

Kamala did bring up the totally bogus Russia bounty issue, so we know one thing will change: the administration's commitment to go to war.

by pelgus on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 04:35:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some days I believe that I am the only person on the planet who is amused by the prospect of the two most hyped DNC caucus failures assuming leadership of the "free world"--by default.
by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 07:32:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
While not amused I am disgusted. Both were among my least favorite primary candidates. Biden is Republican Lite and Kamala is Ms. Opportunist.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 03:17:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was ok with Harris, but this thing we have going about 70 being the minimum age is crazy.
by asdf on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 02:23:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A retirement age of 70 is pathetically bad, especially for those who do manual labor. For far too many it is a prescription for working themselves to death, or, at a minimum, working until they are in  bad enough shape to qualify for Medicade - which is pretty bad, especially in conservative states.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 02:00:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I only tuned in accidetally, trying to get the nini O'click news *ten O'clock in New York). I saw that the debate was on and Pence looked like a man facing a firing squad and gibbering incoherently, bug-eyed. Changed the channel to a "Hogan's Heroes" rerun. Just as predictabale as the debate, but with professional actors.
by StillInTheWilderness on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:08:59 PM EST
I made the sacrifice of staying up till 6.00am  Irish Time to view the debate and write this blog so you wouldn't have to. I'm glad you found a better option...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 03:23:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Apparently a black women is not allowed to interrupt a white man or seem aggressive or assertive in response."

< wipes tears >
Evidently, you've never listened to Kamala?! interrogate senate committee witnesses in any hearing which she visitated lol in the past 6 years. Child's as subtle as a steamroller and twice as schmart.

And, yes, I listed but did not watch the show in it's entirety. MEMORABLE QUOTE: "I will not be lectured by the vice-president" before I repeat every Trump policy failure adopted by Joe.

by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 07:24:32 PM EST
MEMORABLE JIBE: Pence recalling Kamala?!'s filibuster to quash Scott's JUSTICE Act vote,

< wipes tears >

because Campaign Kamala?! says she would eliminate the filibuster to pass Green New Deal, ahem, when she becomes POTUS.

by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 07:44:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 07:48:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is the most damning comment anyone can make of her. Apparently in the USA, to climb up the greasy pole, you have to have the immorality and cajones to lock up innocent people or keep people in prison past their release date to bolster the profits of the prison system.

And still Pence could question her law and order credentials.

But this election isn't about the wonderful qualities of Biden/Harris. It's about whether you want to continue to be ruled by a drug crazed narcissistic megalomaniac psychopath who is only getting into his stride in terms of ripping up the world order  that has kept us free from world war or 75 years.

The limitations of the Biden Harris regime will become clear soon enough, but that will be a battle for another day.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 10:53:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, there is a second. The principled survivors like Corbyn and Sanders. However,as we also learned, taking power demands a willingness to go for broke. And you're playing with other people's lives. If Sanders wanted to win he absolutely needed to stick the knife into his good friend Joe. And if Corbyn actually wanted to govern he needed to go nuclear on the PLP. Even if it makes a Trump or Johnson win more likely. But that would go against their core personality and what gave them the moderate success they had in utterly rotten institutions.
by generic on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 05:28:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Democrats insist on bringing a rubber chicken to a gun fight.

In part due to the DLC mostly agreeing with the Conservative position on the economy and to fight back would lose the Democratic leadership all that lovely corporate cash.

Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, and some of the other "upstarts" that aren't beholden to Wall Street for their campaign money can and are leading the fight against the Neo-Liberal power structures.  Even so, they are few & far between, and are not supported by the rest of the Progressive (sic) Caucus

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 07:13:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Principled?
I lost all resp3ect for Sanders when caved without a fight and is campaigning for Biden. "Come with cash" "Boasting about using government cash to take the heat off his son" "catfood commission" Biden.
I'd vote for the Devil before that scum-sucker.
I rationalized his campaigning for Hillary as wanting to try again, but he is not going to run in 2024. Bernie sanders is a sham. A Judas goat as someone said.
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 09:38:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why do so many left leaning Americans see politics as a morality play? In a binary system it's never more than choosing the least worst option.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 09:46:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, that were his principles. He was always willing to make pacts with the devil in the name of harm reduction. Apparently the incessant whining by the liberals that he caused Trump by disrespecting Mother got to him. And so he folded early and with enthusiasm. Of course, that had the opposite effect of making his support worthless. But then the Democratic party as an institution doesn't really care if it wins elections.
by generic on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 12:16:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There was never any chance of Corbyn going nuclear on the PLP = not just because he's a nice guy, but because it would have split the party, possibly permanently.

"Split the party" meaning there would have been a mass exodus of "centrist" PLP MPs - who would have done a deal with the LibDems - leaving a relative small left-leaning rump.

That might have been fine in normal times. But the Tories were busy pandering to working class xenophobia with Brexit, and Labour would have ended up in an even worse position and the Tories in an even better one.

The more I look back on the last few years, the more obvious it is that politics in the UK is a stage show. The primary goal is always to keep the left out of power and to increase the power of the corporate right. Everything - from Brexit to the existence of the SDP/LibDems to Blair's "victories" - stems from that political prime directive.

The left cannot win in the UK because there is no real press or media freedom, no real interest in debating issues or planning for the future, and no limits to how far the corporate right will go when it comes to smearing or otherwise manipulating the narrative around the left and its leaders. And then of course FPTP translates to winner-takes-all election outcomes.

So here we are. There may be a new generation of left-leaning politicians willing to take this on over the next decade or two. But it's a huge mountain to climb, and the UK is more likely to split apart than allow the gradual change that would make room for a genuine popular left-leaning government.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 02:09:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure it is useful to lump all of corporate Britain into a homogenous corporate right. From my experience of it - admittedly not at board level - Labour, especially under Blair, wasn't seen as a threat, and the Tories were seen with a somewhat jaundiced eye.

Brexit came after my working career there but I would imagine most of mainstream industry was horrified by the disaster capitalism in represented. There would always have been Tory legal, financial, and marketing types for whom Boris was a merry jape, but losing access to the single market was not their idea of fun.

These are the guys who are going to have to close down businesses and make people redundant if it all goes pear-shaped. They have little to gain personally from this as their careers could be on the line as well. And must would have been pretty contemptuous of city slicker vulture capitalists.

Most were pretty careful not to be too overtly "political" and were pretty pragmatic about dealing with the economic choices that are presented there way. Some may have indulged in nativist fantasies that Britain could outsmart the Europeans and have the best of both worlds - the advantages of membership without the costs.

But Boris was never seen as much more than a clown, and Brexit has now gone way past the joke. They are keeping their heads down and hoping for the best, but more in hope than confidence. Most, I suspect, know by now that this is not going to end well. But few, I think appreciate just how bad it could get.

Recreational triumphalism has turned out to have costs after all.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 05:41:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think the corporate right includes industry at all - with a few notable exceptions, like James Dyson and that louse who runs Wetherspoons.

In the UK, the real corporate right is the ultra-privileged rent-seeking public school right. In the UK that's a cabal around Crispin Odey, Rees-Mogg, and the Atlanticists - see below - directed by Matthew Elliot and the minions who ply their trade in Tufton Street.

In the US it's the hedge funds like Blackrock and speculators like Goldman Sachs, supported by Murdoch, Koch, Mercer, and a few other kooks like Bannon. (GS are along for the ride as opportunists rather than out of any deep ideological conviction - see also Greek sovereign debt - but their pervasive influence at this level makes them very powerful allies.)

British industry - including some parts of the City - used to believe it had some common ground with these people, but after Brexit it's starting to realise it's as disposable as any temporary worker.

This version of the right seems to be trying to create a new aristocracy using disaster capitalism as a pretext for the dismantling of democracy and the subversion of all public expectation of competent and effective government.

This has always been the fundamental goal of Brexit. Destroying all possible opposition from the Left and replacing it with cultivated working class xenophobia is a step towards outright dictatorship - without democratic or judicial oversight.

The EU has no cause to feel secure about any of this. The model succeeded in Russia, replacing a crumbling state with a mafia-like network of oligarchs and clients. It did huge damage to Greece, and it's now working in the UK. It has been attempted in the US with partial success. But even if Trump goes, it's not obvious Biden is going to turn the tide. And even if he attempts to, there's always 2024. And 2028. And 2032.

I would guess the plan is to roll out a similar model in as many countries as possible - promoting far-right nationalism as a pretext to destroy all forms of liberal redistributive government, and thus to "reform" the EU itself country by country.

If this seems unlikely and excessively paranoid, the plan is laid out explicitly in three books written by William Rees-Mogg, the father of the oily Jacob, and Murdoch's pet editor at The Times - The Sovereign Individual, Blood in the Streets, and The Great Reckoning.

Of course the plan is ridiculous and self-destructive, because this kind of fascism is invariably a cult of attention-seeking adolescent tantrums and self-harm. Even when it works, winners rarely realise how precarious their "success" is and how easily they can become losers - until it's too late.

Unfortunately the UK has discovered it has few democratic defences against this kind of deliberate bad faith attack, and it's not obvious that other "stable" democracies are necessarily more robust.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 11:38:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 11:45:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The model succeeded in Russia, replacing a crumbling state with a mafia-like network of oligarchs and clients.

That has now been rolled back for the most part. The most blatant oligarchs have either been criminally processed or left the country (see: anti-Putin emigrees in London). Arrest of governor Furgal signifies that federation is restoring the rule of law now even in the remotest regions of Russia.

Life expectancy is now higher than it was in Soviet times (it dropped by 8 years for males during Yeltsin's reign), GDP PPP per capita has doubled in two decades, people's trust in judicial system is now at 80% (people win their cases against government and business) resulting in twenty-fold increase in cases.

Russians even trust their democracy as much as the next European country. 60% approve Putin's actions, 51% approve Mishustin's actions. More people (by a small margin) believe the country is going to the right direction than don't.

Young Russians don't admire politicians in general, and few can name an alternative to the current leadership. While they admire businessmen much more, they don't admire oligarchs, but self-made men who did not leach their fortune from the government or oil.

Russia isn't anymore the dystopia the Chicago-boys turned it into in the 90's. It's also starting look like Greece will be able to survive Schäuble's iron boot and eventually restore itself as a functional state.

by pelgus on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 08:48:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Great comment! A diary on Russian or Greek political economy development would be even better!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 11:01:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks, but I'm not an expert on Russia. My parents are, or used to be, and some of that has stuck :-)
by pelgus on Wed Oct 14th, 2020 at 01:15:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You don't have to be an expert - just write something that can start a discussion. I'm intrigued as to who poisoned Navalny and why. He was hardly a threat to Putin, and yet few Russians would have access to Novichok. It seems to be the weapon of choice of a certain Russian faction when other less dramatic methods might be more effective. The purpose seems to be to scare off people who might be thinking of going down the opposition route. But is the Russian state as unitary as we are led to believe, and do all roads lead to Putin?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 14th, 2020 at 02:33:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Russia is in no small part responsible for Brexit, and is also involved in promoting far right movements across Europe. And Putin recently poisoned an opposition leader.

The rosy picture you paint doesn't seem to be entirely matched by reality.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 01:41:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wasn't the Russian connection to Brexit entirely made up? Like with Cambridge Analytica:

Cambridge Analytica Wasn't Involved in Brexit Campaign, ICO Says - Bloomberg

Cambridge Analytica, the defunct U.K. consulting company accused of using secretly mined Facebook Inc. data for targeted political advertising, wasn't involved in the Brexit campaign, according to report by the U.K.'s Information Commissioner's Office.
by generic on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 04:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 08:49:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just found the open reply tab.
New details of Russian donations to Boris Johnson's Conservative party - Business Insider
While the report did not name donors, it warned that senior Russian figures had used their money to fund British political parties and businesses, with the UK "viewed as a particularly favourable destination for Russian oligarchs and their money."

The report states that the UK government did not seek to find out about potential Russian influence, citing "extreme caution" among UK security officials to look into potential interference by Moscow.


They needed a report for that?

I sniggered a bit when I read that in a UK paper:
The Russian troll factory at the heart of the meddling allegations | Russia | The Guardian

"Of course, if every day you are feeding on hate, it eats away at your soul. You start really believing in it. You have to be strong to stay clean when you spend your whole day submerged in dirt," he said.

Yes, imagine feeding on hate for a living.
On the one hand, of course something like that exists. Russia wouldn't fund an English language TV station if they didn't care to manipulate public opinion. But what are these quotes? Imagine working at a troll farm for minimum wage and clinging to a higher sense of morality than 95% of Facebook pensioners. I also note that they didn't mention that this said troll farm was supposedly run by the head of the Wagner group, which seems to be relevant? But nothing I've seen gives any indication that Russia had any kind of impact on Brexit. And the hyper focus on Russia only serves to to obfuscate the obvious: Brexit was cooked up by the hacks and their owners in conjunction with factions in the Tory party. And little could be done about it because the sensibles prioritized their factional infighting in the Labour party.
by generic on Wed Oct 14th, 2020 at 02:45:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 10:46:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A lot of the anti-Russia propaganda seems to work by conflating Putin with anti-Putin Oligarchs who he marginalised or exiled and who now hang out in London imagining they can shape the UK into an oligarch friendly playground. Of course they are quite happy to deflect criticism onto Putin, but their real agenda is in the UK, whereas his is in Russia.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 11:15:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, you can play degrees of separation to Vladimir Putin and you'll always get there in very few jumps. I prefer degrees of separation to Jeffrey Epstein. Much more fun.
As to Putin himself, maybe he is a Scooby Doo villain who constantly tries, but somehow fails to, murder his personal enemies with poison. Maybe he indeed is behind perfidious plans to destroy western civilization with jpegs of buff Bernie. But in the end there really is no way for me to tell since the Russia panic is too useful to too many people. And I've yet to find any question where it would actually matter.
by generic on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 12:50:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
doesn't seem to be all its cracked up to be...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 01:01:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My apologies, I didn't think I was painting a rosy picture by stating Russia isn't the hellhole it used to be in the 90's.

Anyway, I was talking about Russia's internal development, whereas your counterpoints are 2/3 external issues. Thus I hope you don't mind if I address the last one first.

Mr. Navalnyi is by no stretch of imagination "opposition leader". For some reason western media thinks he is, even if his support is less than The Official Monster Raving Loony Party has in UK. And just like Lord Buckethead, his value in Russian politics was mostly entertainment. Even Russian independent media calls him "oppositionist" or "blogger".

The leader of Russian opposition is Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party holding 10% of the seats in State Duma and being very critical of the government. Communists also have two governors and over 400 seats in regional parliaments. In presidential elections Zyuganov gets 20%-30% of the votes, so he's an actual political force. And according to Levada polls, Zyuganov is the most trusted opposition politician, with 9% or Russians trusting him.

Next in line is Vladimir Zhirinovsky, leader of the Liberal Democrats, with 9% of the seats in Duma, 3 governors and close to 300 seats in regional parliaments. At the moment Mistushin's cabinet has confidence of Liberal Democrats, and a lot of Russians believe they just pretend to be in opposition, anyway.

So, when Russia has actual opposition figures with actual support of millions of citizens, why on earth would Putin even notice Russian Lord Buckethead, not to speak of poisoning him with banned military grade neurotoxin on a public place?

Navalnyi's foundation wasn't even the biggest anti-corruption agent in Russia. Far from it. And, to quote the man himself from this June, his foundation "is pretty much over". The foundation tried to attack businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin (yes, "Putin's chef" and the owner of the "Kremlin troll factory"), but was caught faking the evidence in a documentary, lost in court and now owns millions in damages to Prigozhin personally.

The anti-corruption foundation is also under investigation for money laundering, so if the somebody was after Navalnyi, they surely got him by the balls without any attempt on his life needed.

This probably won't make you even consider the possibility that maybe Putin wasn't behind what happened in Tomsk, but to others it may at least give a pause.

Now, what happened in Tomsk seems to still be a mystery. What we know for a fact is that neither the doctors in Omsk nor in Berlin found any poison or toxins in his body. First report of neurotoxins was from German Military, but they refused to reveal what exactly was found, how it was found and where it was found. Then we hear from OPCW that they analyzed Navalnyi's blood and found some biomarkers related to organophophates but not to banned chemicals.

So, we don't actually know if he was poisoned, and if he was, with what he was poisoned. When asked, Germans refuse to tell.

What we do know, though, is that his symptoms were not those of one poisoned with nerve agent. He did not convulse, foam, vomit or die.

So, to counter you: it wasn't opposition leader, it very likely wasn't Putin, and we really don't know if it was poisoning.

Oh, and getting out of the country while under criminal investigation and during corona lock down was such a feat many people in Russia think he must have good friends in Kremlin...

As for the other two points about Russian influence, what can I say?

According to an Article in Business Insider, the idea that Russia was supporting right-wing movements appeared sometimes in 2009, pushed by think-tanks, but without any evidence. The article was written in 2014, and yet there still was no evidence of this whatsoever, even though most of the western media was now taking it for granted.

The only evidence of this ever brought forward is that National Front got a loan from Russian commercial bank. Nobody ever claimed Kremlin even knew about this loan, or could have had any influence over the bank.
The other, I think, was a Russian car repair shop owner in Berlin funding AdF, but later he turned out to be Ukrainian, so that went away.

As for Putin forcing half of the UK to vote for Brexit, I can refer to recently published British Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee's "Russia Report". They called the most vehement Russophobes available to find evidence and proof beyond any doubt that Russia was behind all the bad things ever happened to Britain, but specifically investigate how Russia interfered with Brexit campaigning.

And they found nothing beyond a lot of allegations in media. None of the allegations had any substance, or evidence of interfering. Not even MI5 could help them. Their conclusion, though, was that UK government had failed to look hard enough. There had to be evidence, since it's obvious Russia interfered, even if there was no evidence. Can't argue with people like that...

Now, why stuff about Russia in British media may be somewhat economical with the truth, you may want to check out Integrity Initiative.

For examples of what proper interference in national politics actually looks like, see Belorussia, Venezuela, Greece or Columbia.

For what's it worth, during the campaign no Russian official expressed any preference either way. They just hoped that whatever happened, it would not cause any disturbance within EU, which is Russia's biggest trade partner. It may be really difficult to comprehend, but Russia prefers a stable Europe for it to make money out of. Brexit has a potential to damage that.

EU without UK may not be as Russophobic as with UK, but for Russia it's Germany that drives EU's anti-Russian policies, whether it's Ukraine or Nord Stream 2. And Brexit really did not change that in any way.

Sorry for a way too long post, even if this is the redacted version.

by pelgus on Wed Oct 14th, 2020 at 01:11:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent post, which I hadn't read when I wrote my comment above. It really is the guts of an excellent diary... A diary doesn't have to have all the answers, just enough logic or evidence to ask some cogent questions you may not get in the MSM...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 14th, 2020 at 02:49:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Plenty of background in my diary of Dec. 2018

Hybrid Warfare: Statecraft Integrity Initiative

Typical for organized propaganda ...

Fake news hoax exposed: NY Times podcast star lied about joining ISIS

In the UK hundreds of millions is spend on militarized propaganda.

The Great British Brexit Robbery

How the Pentagon paid a British PR firm $500 million for top secret Iraq propaganda

No surprise for other powers using similar propaganda: China, Russia, Iran, UK, UAE, Qatar, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

by Oui on Wed Oct 14th, 2020 at 05:11:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Behind Cambridge Analytica lay a bigger threat to our democracy: Facebook

Gets only more nefarious ...

How QAnon uses religion to lure unsuspecting Christians

US: Religious data platform 'targets mentally ill, vulnerable people' | DW |

Democracy in Decay: Steve Bannon & Jordan Peterson

In a climate of suspicion, roguish buffoons like Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Boris Johnson have lied and cheated their way to high office. The moral landscape has altered to a point where the truth doesn't seem to count for much anymore.

by Oui on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 07:37:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... and a Conservative nominee to the SCOTUS forced through by Republicans ... fundamental Catholic professing the right for religion to interfere in individual rights ... a cult follower of People of Praise
by Oui on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 07:46:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An alternate take: Putin's (mob) faction triumphed and consolidated power. Putin came up through the KGB, retired in 1990 and, under Yeltsin, became Director of the KGB and then President. With the KGB at his disposal Putin had more power than any of the oligarch that sprang up under Yeltsin and has taken down or suborned most of them.

In most ways Putin has followed in the tradition of strong Tsars and their Communist successors, expanding and consolidating state power. Since Putin is in control of the state it is in his interest for the state to be strong and for Russia to be strong.

Putin's Achilles Heal has been the Russian Economy. Most of Russia's industry derived from the USSR and retains most of the features of a command/control economy. And too many of the 'market oriented' new companies that arose were in reality glorified vulture capitalist companies run primarily in the interest of enriching the CEO. Putin has taken down or forced into exile most of those. It turns out that establishing functioning markets is not a trivial exercise.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 01:17:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"The left cannot win in the UK because there is no real press or media freedom,"

Well, I'm the first to agree, but the BBC is on your side, innit? :)

The left today - in the UK, the USA and most western countries - represent the middle class transferiat. These are the people who are dependent on the state to get a job of the kind they think they deserve - one that matches their £160000 student load levels rather than stocking shelves at Tesco.

The real working class is not dumb and has not been tricked. They can see that "gender," "identity," "green," and "woke language policing" is not going to help them.

At some point we are going to run out of other people's money, and the non-tech, non-business university set will take whatever jobs they can get.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 10:38:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, the BBC is not on our side. The BBC is very much not on our side, and hasn't been on our side for the best part of a decade - not since Nigel Farage starting getting free air time to peddle Brexit when he was the fringiest of fringe politicians.

As for the rest - it's odd how many working class people I know who would disagree with you.

Not all, of course. But then a lot do still watch the BBC.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:27:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The BBC is a far-right kook outfit.  Your standard has to be Fox News or OAN to think it qualifies as being on the side of the left.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 03:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't this somewhat racist? She also locked up innocent white neo-Nazis.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 11:01:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 02:22:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I see the Devil wants our soul.
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 09:39:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Joe Biden says he does not back Green New Deal during presidential debate

transcript

TRUMP: Chris, so why didn't he do it for 47 years? You were vice president. Why didn't you get the world- China sends up real dirt into the air. Russia does. India does. They all do. We're supposed to be good. And by the way, he made a couple of statements, the Green New Deal is 100 trillion dollar plan --
BIDEN: That is not my plan. The Green New Deal is not my plan.
WALLACE: Gentlemen, gentleman --
TRUMP: You said I said something about the military. He and his friends made it up, and then they went with it. I never said it. What he did is he said- He called the military stupid bastards
WALLACE: Mr. Vice President, Mr. Vice President -- Please, stop.
TRUMP: I would never say that.
WALLACE: Mr. Vice President answer his question his final question.
BIDEN: The final question is I can't remember which of all is real.
by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 08:12:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
WALLACE: I'm having a little trouble myself. But about the economy, and about this question of what it's going to cost. The Green New Deal and the idea of what, what your environmental changes to --
BIDEN: The Green New Deal will pay for itself as we move forward. You're not going to build plants that in fact are great polluting plans.
WALLACE: Do you support the Green New Deal?
BIDEN: Pardon me?
WALLACE: Do you support the Green New Deal?
BIDEN: No, I don't support the Green New Deal.
by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 08:18:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here is where I deplore that ET's rating system does not provide a 'Sad' or a 'Disgusted' emoji.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 03:21:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I used to bemoan the loss of #CreepyUncleJoe, but all things considered #SleepyJoe is less creepy and much more entertaining!

-----
sapere aude
by Number 6 on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 10:39:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FACT CHECK < wipes tears >

Biden, Trump transcript

WALLACE: One final question for you, Mr. Vice President, if Senate Republicans -- we were originally talking about the Supreme Court here -- if Senate Republicans, go ahead and confirm justice Barrett, there has been talk about ending the filibuster [BWAH!], or even packing the court, adding to the nine justices there. You call this a distraction by the president, but in fact it wasn't brought up by the President, it was brought up by some of your Democratic colleagues in Congress. So my question to you as you have refused in the past to talk about it: Are you willing to tell the American people tonight, whether or not you will support either ending the filibuster or packing the court. ...

Harris, Pence transcript
PENCE: ...And I want everyone to know, who puts on the uniform of law enforcement every day, that President Trump and I stand with you. It is remarkable that Senator Tim Scott tried to pass a police reform bill, brought together a group of Republicans and Democrats - Senator Harris, you got up and walked out of the room. And then you filibustered Senator Tim Scott's bill on the Senate floor that would have provided new accountability, new resources. But we don't have to choose between supporting law enforcement, providing public safety, and supporting our African American neighbors and all other minorities. Under President Trump's leadership -
[...]
HARRIS: I will not sit here and be lectured by the Vice President on what it means to enforce the laws of our country. I'm the only one on this stage who has personally prosecuted everything from child sexual assaults to homicide. I'm the only one on the stage who has prosecuted the big banks for taking advantage of American families. [...]
PAGE: Senator Harris -

HARRIS: - and recognizes the beauty in our diversity and the fact that we all spend so much more in common than what separates us.

WASS
by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 07:59:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With apologies for my stupidity - what point(s) are you making?
by det on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 10:57:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The content of both debates was vacuous. Also, as measured by US press opinion polling, the fly won.
by Cat on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 02:15:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The "debates" are not about content, they are about seeing the candidates in action to try to get a feel for what they might actually be like.
by asdf on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 02:25:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I appreciate she has a reputation as a stern cross-examiner. But the debate wasn't her in cross-examination mode. It was her in her closing address to the jury mode where she is trying to elicit their sympathy, respect and understanding for her client (Biden), who may be as guilty as hell, but is really a regular sort of guy - one of their own - who doesn't deserve to be locked up.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 10:44:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 12:22:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Harris's only goal was to show that she is reasonable; she did that. That's a pretty good accomplishment in a county where Pence is probably pretty close to the center. The coastal people think that him calling his wife "Mother" is an aberration, but it was standard mid-western language in the 1950s in which he is still living.

I think the big loser was Trump. By refusing the next debate, he has lost his last chance to get Biden to say something stupid.

The only question now is whether we will engage in a steroid-fueled entry into WW3.

by asdf on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 08:43:01 PM EST
Flash poll: Harris beat Pence in VP debate, and the fly stole the attention
"for about two minutes while Harris and the vice president debated racism in policing"
by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 10:14:02 PM EST
Looks like about 4% of what I think will be the vote is now in.

The link goes to the US Elections Project, which is a tracker run by two political science professors at the University of Florida.

We should get to 7.5-8m votes in today.  Most expect turnout to top 150m.

Not sure we can read much into it for now, but it's noteworthy that Democrats are not only voting more via mail and in-person-early (which was expected), but they're returning their mail ballots at higher (sometimes a lot higher) rates.

Which is unheard of, basically.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 11:04:26 AM EST
Note that California and Texas are just starting to report, and we don't have much in yet from Ohio and Pennsylvania.

So that turnout number may jump pretty quickly.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 11:08:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Remember that Trump got 2,000,000 more votes than Romney.  These were new therefore "unlikely" voters and so did not pass the LV polling screens.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 02:46:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's noon and we're at 7.9m already, so I may have underestimated here....

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 04:07:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now up to 10.5m votes in.  Should hit 11 today, maybe even 12.

Eyeballing it, it looks like Dems' advantage in ballot return rates is growing.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 10:32:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The saddest thing about the VP debate is that 'the fly' seemed to be the high point for the Democrats.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 03:24:02 PM EST
It's a VP debate.  The fly being the big thing is on-brand for VP debates.  Nobody cares.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 04:08:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They should care since their is a large chance that one of them will be the next President if Biden is sectioned 8 for senility or Trump dies of COVID.
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 04:51:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Egh. The only reason anyone watches presidential debates is to cheer for their team.
by generic on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 05:30:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why I only lasted 20 minutes. While I want Trump to lose, and badly, I don't really have a team in this race. Just pickin the lesser evil.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:48:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's far more likely Biden contracts Covid and dies than senility becoming a huge issue.

The senility angle was always stupid on the Trump campaign's part, because all they really accomplished was ensuring that if Biden could remember his own damned name he'd clear the bar they had set.  

The "Biden is Antifa" angle might have been even more stupid, given that the country is utterly familiar with Biden and nobody's buying that.

A remarkable feature of this campaign has been the Trumpers' complete inability to figure out an effective attack on Biden so far.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:31:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...adding:

And not only did he not display senility but from every poll since the debate, he appears to have won the debate easily in the eyes of voters.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:32:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If they hold the debate remotely his team will even be able to provide a teleprompter for him. He can still read a script with feeling...


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:56:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I encountered the senility angle first time in the US lefty circles I follow, as a commentary on Biden's abysmal videocasts from the basement he was hidden into. Don't you remember how he did show clear symptoms of mental degradation, to the extent that his wife had to deal a lot with the interviewers.

For a long time they were wondering why the Trump campaign is not using it, or why the media was not commenting on it, since it was so obvious. Or even if DNC knew about it when they made him the candidate?

The same circles figured that during the debate Trump did not give Biden enough time to be incoherent and forget where he was, or for what office he was running for. Even if Trump's advisors told him to allow Biden room for gaffes, he just doesn't have it in him to stand back and not interrupt when his opponent is making a mistake.

by pelgus on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:58:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I remember seeing a few video clips during the primaries from the more hardcore and Extremely Online Bernie folks on Twitter, but I never took them seriously.  Biden's never been the most eloquent speaker, and he has good days and bad days like everybody -- although the range on that has always been pretty wide with Biden (when he's bad he's really bad and when he's good he's really good).

Biden's strongest moments in the debate were the moments in which he was allowed to talk directly to the public, so while those folks may figure Trump made a mistake there, Trump's strategy to try to create a shitshow and muddy the waters probably wasn't a bad one.  But, being Trump and having no self-control, he obviously went overboard with it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 10:22:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thing is the US is a deeply and historically racist country so a black woman being uppity by showing her intellectual superiority to a white man triggers all sorts of buttons in white voters.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 07:19:43 PM EST
That is a very racist statement.
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 09:40:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Racism is a power relationship and the USA remains VERY racist - not to say that things have not improved since the '50s.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:51:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, racism is judging people based on their race, or as Martin Luther King out it "Judging by the color their skin, not the content of their character." poor Southern whites have no power but plenty of racism. Same for poor inner city blacks. Both racist and our masters like it like that.
by StillInTheWilderness on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 03:14:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Blacks were racist because they hated the slave holders and their practices. Give me a break. ANYONE subjected to that treatment would react the same. And their servitude was race based. That lasted right until the 1% rule became obsolete and interracial marriages were no longer illegal.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 03:47:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And a lot of whites, especially in the states of the old Confederacy, still believe that Blacks should at least be treated as inferiors. Witness the answer to the old question: "What do you call a Black PhD?" You know the old answer - which is still the answer for far too many.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 03:51:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I genuinely don't know the answer...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 10:37:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A hint: "N#$$%r"

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 05:42:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's not what i said. it's the exact opposite!
Take a course in reading comprehension. And keep your white hating to yourself.
by StillInTheWilderness on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 05:53:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I judge white Americans by attitudes and actions, not by our pale pinkish skin color.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 05:27:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Speak for yourself, paleface.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 05:44:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But you still lump people together by skin color. that's racism in a nutshell.
Try judging people by their individual actions instead of their skin color. ALL people.
by StillInTheWilderness on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 05:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Educate yourself and then get back to me

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 06:48:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
oops
by Cat on Fri Oct 9th, 2020 at 11:40:25 PM EST
Slugs for salt!!!
by asdf on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 02:27:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I love that they post these unscientific straw polls.  Then the scientific ones come out, and we all get to laugh at them.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 10th, 2020 at 11:11:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sun Oct 11th, 2020 at 12:53:38 AM EST
Nevan Baker, 22, was found dead 10/5/2020 Sunday about 3:45 a.m. in Barker Park, near Camping World Stadium and the Washington Shores neighborhood, hanging by a rope from a tree, according to Orlando Police Departments case report. OPD quickly ruled his death a suicide but now we learn his hands were tied, teeth missing and face bruised.

But, of course, the US isn't a racist nation.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 09:57:58 PM EST
Given how racist it is, wouldn't it be better to break it up?
Just give BLM what they want - a couple of "no whites" states?


-----
sapere aude
by Number 6 on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 10:49:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wasn't aware that was what BLM wanted...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:19:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ending the nuclear family, were you aware of that one?

-----
sapere aude
by Number 6 on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 11:27:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And a big temple to Satan.
by generic on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 01:02:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, man, that's definitely what BLM wants and not just "Stop letting cops kill black people".

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Oct 19th, 2020 at 03:57:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Biden now up double digits in the 538 average, 9.4 at RealClearPolitics.

We should hit 18-19m votes in when Mike McDonald runs his midnight update.  

Hell, we might get close to 19m just on Texas given the truly bonkers numbers they're putting up.  They had fewer votes than FL in 2016, as I recall, despite the population being 50% larger.  Don't imagine that'll hold this year....

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 10:06:23 PM EST
Is there a partisan breakdown of those requesting mail ballots available? Anyone polling those queueing to vote - or coming out after voting - an exit poll?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 15th, 2020 at 10:43:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's a partial partisan breakdown on mail ballot requests and returns at the bottom of the page here.

Dems are still returning ballots at a higher rate and are outnumbering Republicans 55.7 to 23.5 (rest being independents and minor parties).  In fact, the gap is growing on return rates.  Both have declined a bit in their overall shares as some independents' ballots have come in, which is probably not unexpected.

Not all states report by party though.  For example: Alaska just reports counts of requested and returned ballots, while North Carolina reports breakdowns by party, race, gender, age, county, etc.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 10:25:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mail voting turnout is 14.3% of the total 2016 vote so far.

Assuming the 2020 vote is similar, registered democrats vote for Biden, and registered Republicans vote for Trump, that means Dems have 8% of the vote in the bag compared to 3.3% for Republicans. Not a bad start. Assuming that Biden gets 60% of independent and small party registered voters brings the Dem total to almost 10% with Republicans on 4%.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:02:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Too many assumptions Frank ...

Toss-up Florida gets even tighter as Republicans narrow voter registration gap

Many young voters register without a party affiliation ... the turnout will be a determinant factor as always.

by Oui on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 01:33:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
is irrelevant to conditional franchise in place today. Since absentee voting is the rule rather than exception, periodic phone survey of votes cast rather than vote "intention" would be the more accurate estimate IF sufficient sample of registered voters polled by county.

Don't hold your breath for APsplainin their "methodology" behind ending races for every office in this GE before precincts close.  

  • Every state has established and modified qualifications (voluntarily or by court order) for absentee ballot voting. MD, eg., permits end-to-end electronic ballot fulfillment. So predictive power of mailed ballot party preference is weak.

  • Voter registration: AFAIK, at least one state VA publicized extended voter registration deadline (cockroach alert); some states permit same-day registration; no press has yet ventured comprehensive new registrations.  

  • "Early voting" by person or mail presentment differs by state.

  • Mail ballot postmark deadlines differ by state; voters in at least five states have sued to extend postmark AND count completion deadlines--up to 14 days.

  • Variance between states' absentee ballot "drop-box" collection deadlines is generally unknown.

  • States' laws to embargo completed ballot counts on or before Nov 3 is generally unknown.

Poll: About 6 in 10 voters don't expect to know who won on election night - and they're OK with that, 13 Sep
by Cat on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 02:02:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
case in point: Navajo Voters, 15 Oct
The Ninth Circuit ruled against six Navajo Nation members in their challenge to Arizona's deadline for the receipt of mail-in ballots. The members asked for an injunction to require the state to count ballots from tribal members that are postmarked -- rather than received -- by Election Day.
Now back track 50 states and "territories" to Aug 1 to separate "liberal" from "conservative" district courts, emergency appeals. Litigation is ongoing across the nation. The cheeto-dictator's prediction wasn't wrong, was it.

Also Sheldon Whitehouse ran off the rails for THIRTY MINUTES, Day 2 Pt-2 of the Anti-RBG hearing, carrying a "vast conspiracy," illustrating the Federalist Society's Axes of Assets in eighteen (18) 4C printed visual aids ("slides") mounted on a table easel.

Soon to be a major motion picture, The Amicus Briefs.

by Cat on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 02:56:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 03:29:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm aware there are lots of different regulations in different states. I was just wondering do we have anything more than anecdotal evidence of who those standing in line for hours are/have voting for. You've got to be pretty enthusiastic/committed to stand in line for so long, and I was wondering do we have evidence whether GOP or DEM voters have the greater enthusiasm to vote this cycle.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 08:59:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's hard to tell given that so few states publish demographic breakouts.

In NC, it looks like vote-by-mail numbers skew heavily white and Democratic, while in-person early voting is skewing more African-American but with more Republicans showing up, although the Dems are still showing up in much higher numbers.

Strangely, in Georgia, we're not really seeing that split on racial lines though.  No idea what would drive that.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Generally speaking minority precincts have much fewer voting machines than white precincts.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 01:56:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
case in point: Before Limiting Ballot Drop Boxes to One Per County, Top Ohio Election Officials Secretly Consulted Promoter of Debunked Voting Fraud Fears
Secretaries of state have wide latitude to act in ways that can make it easier or harder to vote. While most all are partisan elected officials, they are expected to carry out policies that aren't more harmful to one party than the other.
by Cat on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 03:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
case in point: In reversal, Michigan appeals court says late-arriving absentee ballots should not be counted
The Republican-controlled Legislature had appealed the September ruling by Michigan Court of Claims Judge Cynthia Stephens that said ballots postmarked before Election Day could arrive as much as 14 days late and still be counted.
[...]
It was not immediately known whether the retiree group would try to appeal to the Michigan Supreme Court.
by Cat on Sun Oct 18th, 2020 at 12:01:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And yeah, there will be a exit poll, but I'm personally not going to take it very seriously just given how weird this election is obviously going to be due to the split between Biden and Trump voters on mode.

Maybe it'll be fine, but I question how good that sample will be.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:00:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean an exit poll of early voters - is that legal. It would give an indication of what proportion of voters who are motivated enough to queue for hours are Biden or Trump - an in Georgia, in the two senate elections as well.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:18:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I'm sure they're polling early voters outside of precincts -- and over the phone for mail voters -- as part of the national exit poll, but they can't publish the results until the polls close on November 3rd. They'll probably have a bunch of demographic breakouts by mode.

There will be phone and online polls done asking those who've voted how they voted though before election night.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:25:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jesus, Texas just blew past California and Florida, and they're already at 27% of 2016 turnout after only a couple days of early voting.  (California will blow past Texas tonight, I assume.)

I figured we'd wind up at 18-19m by midnight yesterday.  We wound up at 19.9m, and we're at 21.4m as of 10AM on the East Coast.  Could we hit 25m tonight?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 02:12:10 PM EST
by Oui on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 02:59:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Need Dems in NC and FL to quit fucking around and get their ballots in.  Looking especially at Miami-Dade, Orange and Seminole counties in FL.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 03:49:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some of us still believe in Election DAY rather than election Month.
by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 05:28:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean, neat.  But these are people who requested mail-in ballots.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 16th, 2020 at 11:18:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So we didn't get to 25m yesterday,  That was probably a little too bullish.  Final midnight tally was 24.2m.  Morning update has us at 24.8m.  We'll clear 25m once FL posts its update obviously.  I'm guessing at least another several hundred thousand will come in from Texas.

https:/electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Early voting starts today in Nevada, which might help us gain some insights on Arizona.  If you're interested in how Nevada's shaking out, ignore polls -- Nevada polling is always trash for some reason -- and just read Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent.  He's the source via his biennial early voting blog.

https:/thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

Early voting starts Monday in Florida, so our counts should begin ramping up with that.  Once we have a week of that, Steve Schale -- a long-time Dem operative down here who ran Obama's Florida campaigns -- will update his blog with any insights he can pull out of the data.  In the meantime, he's written up a primer on Florida, which, as I've said here before, is less a state than a patchwork of warring tribes:

http://steveschale.com/blog/2020/9/14/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-florida-but-were-afraid.ht ml

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 12:26:34 PM EST
Another 800k votes in for Texas.  Wow.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 17th, 2020 at 04:17:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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