Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

US Elections Live Blog

by Frank Schnittger Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 01:44:19 AM EST

Election day is finally upon us and soon we will know the result - by this evening, if President Trump has his way! 98 Million people have already cast an early ballot - 71% of the total 2016 turnout - and a record turnout is expected. Michael McDonald, a Professor at the University of Florida is predicting a total turnout of about 160 Million - up 16% from 138 Million in 2016.

This is despite increasingly desperate attempts by the Republican party to suppress the vote - culminating in yesterdays court proceedings to invalidate 127,000 votes  in Texas because they were cast at temporary drive in centres housed in tents, rather than in a building "structure". President Trump has also said he will send in the lawyers to stop the counting this evening if he is ahead at that stage - as if there is some constitutional requirement to count only as many votes as can be counted within a few hours of polls closing.

It is difficult to envisage a more desperate and defeatist message to send to the electorate than seeking to disenfranchise millions of voters who have cast their ballots in good faith. Democracy be damned. But it also sends a clear message to an electorate which may be less than fully enthused to vote for Joe Biden. A vote now represents an act of defiance against those who would seek to deprive you of that right. It's democracy or fascism, your choice.


Overall, the opinion polls have been remarkably stable over the past few months, giving Biden a lead of between 7 and 11% over that period. Real Clear Politics currently has Biden just below the bottom of that range at 6.7%. but there is little evidence of the race tightening at the crucial state level and 538 currently has the national average at Biden +8.4%.

At the state level Biden seems poised to capture all the Clinton states plus Wisconsin (+8.1%), Michigan (+8.0%) and Pennsylvania (+4.9%), which would be enough to get him past the 270 electoral college threshold. In addition, Biden is favoured to win Arizona (+2.6%), Florida (+2.4%), North Carolina (+1.9%), and Georgia (+0.8%) and has a good shot at winning Ohio (- 0.4%) Texas (- 1.3%), and Iowa (-1.6%).  (All figures based on 538.com polling averages).

The polls could be wrong, of course, and it is worth bearing in mind that the current tipping point state, Pennsylvania, has Biden up by only 4.9%, which is why Biden is spending so much time there in the past few days. Biden is not going to make Hillary Clinton's mistake of taking Pennsylvania, where he grew up, for granted. Nevertheless 538 is still giving Trump a 10% chance of winning the election, given the possibility there could be a last minute swing to Trump, as there was in 2016.

Of course the opposite could also happen, with a last minute swing of the dwindling band of undecideds giving Biden an even greater edge. However with 98 Million votes already cast, and so few undecided voters remaining in one of the most polarised elections in US history, it seems unlikely there will be a huge last minute swing either way. Thus Trump's last remaining hopes rest on a huge collective polling error, much greater than that which appeared to lull the Clinton campaign into a false sense of security in 2016.

The risk of such a huge polling error is reduced by the fact that we know the party registrations of nearly half of the 98 Million who have already voted (45% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 25% independent and other). Assuming the vast majority of registered Democrats voted for Biden, and Republican's for Trump, that already gives Democrats a 15 Million vote edge before we consider the fact that polls indicate more independents lean towards Biden rather than Trump. Republicans have a greater tradition of voting in person on final polling day, but they have a mountain to climb if they are to make up for that pre-existing deficit.

Democrats are also favoured in polls to take back control of the Senate, to increase their majority in the House, and to take control of many more state houses and legislatures. Whether the expected blue wave becomes a tsunami remains to be seen, but it would be a major surprise if Democrats do not make significant gains at every level of US politics. Perhaps for the edification of our readers, the US political pundits here might like to put their predictions on the record, before any votes are tabulated, of course. FWIW, My expectations would be on the lines of something like:

Biden +9% nationally, 407 Electoral college votes
Senate - Democrats +6
House - Democrats +15

As you can see from the above, I am being super optimistic from a Democrat point of view, and will no doubt have considerable egg on my face in due course...

Display:
Twitter flagged president's message of incitement on Pennsylvania Court decision - SHAME

On Twitter, Trump said the court decision would "induce violence in the streets." The social media platform flagged his message, adding a disclaimer to the tweet that its content was "disputed" and "might be misleading."

'Non-scalable' fencing erected around White House, stores boarded up in anticipation of election protests

by Oui on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 05:00:15 AM EST
...and will no doubt have considerable egg on my face in due course...

No fear Frank, an egg would hide that big smile on the 4th after a sound majority.

My estimate on the lower end is 300 for a Biden win.

First poll count Dixville Notch NH : result 5 votes for Joe Biden (a sweep)

by Oui on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 05:10:54 AM EST
Texas 5th Appellate Court ruling upholds counting of 127,000 votes

Chris Holland 9 of 10 drive through polling sites will be shut on election day out of abundane of caution after rulings in Texas.

Earlier ruling ...

Nearly 127,000 Harris County drive-thru votes appear safe after federal judge rejects GOP-led Texas lawsuit

by Oui on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 05:56:21 AM EST
by Oui on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 06:03:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In very good news for Democrats it is highly likely if Biden takes a state with a Senate race - or two - the Senate seat show go Blue as well.

Large Shares of Voters Plan To Vote a Straight Party Ticket for President, Senate and House

A recent analysis of U.S. Senate elections since 2012 shows how rare it is for a Senate race to go a different way from a state's votes in presidential elections. In 139 regular and special elections for the Senate since 2012, 88% have been won by candidates from the same party that won that state's most recent presidential contest.

Now add:

the growing body of evidence on the congressional-district and statewide level showing that Trump's political problems are metastasizing and having a strong drag on down-ballot Republicans. That extends from the Senate to the House and even down to the state-legislative level, with serious congressional and legislative redistricting implications.

And winning the presidency and winning the Senate seem locked in tandem.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 06:38:48 AM EST
And I forget to say that in Georgia the winning candidate has to get over 50% of the vote to win the seat.  So there's a good chance they'll be having a Senate runoff on Jan 5, 2021.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 06:42:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Look around ... does the country seem MAGA? Think again after nearly ten million citizens stricken by Covid-19, Wall Street at highs as is the number of unemployed ... a future quite bleak with a record high deficit and Federal debt. Trump managed to create the swamp in your hometown ... send to most impopular president ever packing his bags with the message: "YOU'RE FIRED!!".  

Trump left the country Bushwhacked and fully isolated from International partners and allies. A State Department in ruins.

Trump Is The Most Unpopular President Since Ford To Run For Reelection

Who believes history doesn't repeat itself?

[...] is judged as a great failure in making a satisfying and just peace. He is viewed to have been a rigid, dictatorial racist who was unable to compromise or to accept a political reality at odds with his own ideas. Instead of forging a compromise between Radical Republicans and moderates, his actions united the opposition against him.

Andrew Johnson | Miller Center|

by Oui on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 09:51:50 AM EST
Frank:
This is despite increasingly desperate attempts by the Republican party to suppress the vote - culminating in yesterdays court proceedings to invalidate 129,000 votes  in Texas because they were cast at temporary drive in centres housed in tents, rather than in a building "structure". President Trump has also said he will send in the lawyers to stop the counting this evening if he is ahead at that stage - as if there is some constitutional requirement to count only as many votes as can be counted  within a few hours of polls closing.

As I've mentioned before, Trump is increasingly desperate and so are his minions. As everyone has seen, they are not restrained by any semblance of legality, the law being whatever Trump says it is.

There are several states that Trump needs for "a path to 270 votes", like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, not to mention Ohio, Florida and of course Texas and Georgia. For any of these states announcing a Biden win, I would expect Trump to immediately cry "massive fraud", send in his lawyers, the Border Patrol, whatever police or military that would take his orders, and dog-whistle his most violent supporters into storming the state's election authorities to re-establish the "true vote". Trump's calls for violence have turned into foghorn blasts these past days.

Trump strives in chaos; and if chaos is the only available path to him, there's little doubt this is where he will go.

The only real question is how the different states, especially those that are GOP held, will react with the Trump administration and GOP's attempts to tweak the results. I'm aware that the US elections are in fact 50 different elections in 50 different states, 51 with DC.

Plus: to which extent can the SCOTUS interfere with the states election processes? There are now 3 Trump appointees whom Trump considers they must do his bidding regardless, because "they owe him" - Trump's way of thinking is no secret by now.

At this point, anything could happen; it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

by Bernard on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 10:35:24 AM EST
All eyes on turnout in Pennsylvania where Joe Biden will be canvassing on Election Day illustrating the win will be the KEY to the White House ...

Pennsylvania's Erie County will test the Rust Belt's loyalty to Trump in the 2020 election | CNBC - Oct. 16, 2020 |

Pennsylvania's pandemic presidential election is here. Is the state ready? | Inquirer |

by Oui on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 11:06:14 AM EST
My final prediction is basically the same as what I had four or five months ago:

Biden 334
Trump 204

That's, of course, Arizona, Nebraska-2, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsyltucky, North Carolina and Florida.

I think Trump very narrowly pulls it out in Georgia, carries Texas by about 2 and wins with modest margins in Ohio and Iowa.

It looks like the popular vote margin will be wider than I was thinking back then.  I'd had it Biden +5.8 then.  Now I'm thinking it wins up being about 7.

Unlike seemingly the entire pundit class, I don't think it's going to take days, let alone weeks, to know the outcome.  I'm not sure if the election will be called by the news orgs before midnight, but I obviously think we'll have a pretty good idea.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 11:31:55 AM EST
I'm giving Biden all of the above plus Georgia, Texas and Ohio, but not Iowa. I know, I know - very optimistic, and always assuming all votes are counted!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 11:54:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You would say that, wouldn't you? You salary doesn't depend on getting lots of people to watch your shows, which can only be done by generating a close race. This always happens, even with AOC's reelection campaign which she won with a landslide. You should stop making your predictions, and think of these poor journalists who need to make a living....

Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

Bolivia? Venezuela? You don't seem to be doing a good job of that any more.

Anyway, with the US election now so uninteresting, shall we discuss Palau? Do you think that Whipps Jr. or Oilouch will win? What are the differences, if any between them?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 08:41:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For the record, my House forecast of +15 is made up of one Dem loss (MN-07) and 16 gains -
Open seats (9)
NC-02     R     100%     Safe D
NC-06     R     100     Safe D
TX-23     R     74     Lean D
NY-02     R     57     Toss-up
IN-05     R     50     Toss-up
VA-05     R     49     Toss-up
TX-24     R     48     Toss-up
MI-03     L     44     Toss-up
GA-07     R     43     Toss-up

And beating 7 Republican incumbants
CA-25     Mike Garcia     45%     Toss-up
NJ-02     Jeff Van Drew     50     Toss-up
PA-10     Scott Perry     52     Toss-up
AZ-06     David Schweikert     57     Toss-up
OH-01     Steve Chabot     58     Toss-up
MN-01     Jim Hagedorn     60     Lean R
NE-02     Don Bacon     60     Lean R

Data courtesy of 538. Basically I am predicting that Dems sweep the board of winnable seats while losing only one.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 11:43:41 AM EST
My senate forecast of +6 is based on Dems losing their Alabama seat (Doug Jones ), and winning 7.

Colorado     Cory Gardner     84%     16%
Arizona*     Martha McSally     78     22
N. Carolina     Thom Tillis     68     32
Georgia*     Kelly Loeffler     63     37
Maine             Susan Collins     59     41
Georgia     David Perdue     43     57
Iowa             Joni Ernst     42     58   

Odds courtesy of 538. Again, a very bullish prediction...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 11:49:51 AM EST
I expect Trump to muddle up enough states with court challenges that Biden won't be able to reach 270 and the courts will give it to Trump.

Alternatively, Biden will win and Trump will unleash the fury of a scorned narcissist for the next 11 weeks until Inauguration.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 02:39:48 PM EST
As I wrote earlier today. (and this was before I read the below)

Trump: We'll send in lawyers if Pennsylvania election is unfair - USA Today

President Donald Trump says he would likely take legal action if he believes Tuesday's election is conducted unfairly, especially in Pennsylvania.

"As soon as that election's over, we're going in with our lawyers," Trump told reporters Sunday just before a rally in Hickory, North Carolina.

Trump did deny a report in Axios that he planned to declare victory if he is ahead in Pennsylvania and enough other states on Election Day, even if mail-in ballots were still being counted.

Trump readies thousands of attorneys for election fight
Dozens of lawyers from three major law firms have been hired. Thousands of volunteer attorneys and poll watchers across the country have been recruited. Republicans are preparing prewritten legal pleadings that can be hurried to the courthouse the day after the election, as wrangling begins over close results and a crush of mail-in ballots. Attorneys from non-battleground states, including California, New York and Illinois, are being dispatched to more competitive areas and trained on local election laws.

A 20-person team of lawyers oversees the strategy, which is mainly focused on the election process in the 17 key states the Trump campaign is targeting, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

[...]

"Donald Trump is both desperate and can't bear to be seen as a loser," said David Lublin, an elections expert at American University. "So he's got to come up with some way that he either doesn't lose or he can pretend to all of his followers that he was forced out unjustly due to the massive fraud that somehow did not plague all the previous elections."

Did I say "bumpy ride"?

by Bernard on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 04:45:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 10:40:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's my prediction based on 538. Trump wins 190 electoral votes and Biden 235. Trump contests the elections in NC, FL, AZ, PA, MI, and WI, all of which have Tepublican state legislatures which can give him the electoral voted when court challenges manage to delay certification of results before the deadline to convene the electoral college.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 10:46:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, first of all I misread my own table. Anyway Trump seems to have won NC and FL fair and square, which puts him winning GA and getting 248 before court challenges to my predicted Biden 235. Biden winning Illinois has him at 183 so far.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:02:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Early votes tabulated is now over 100 Million, 73% of total 2016 vote.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 04:32:08 PM EST
Somebody finally pulled the plug on RealClearPolitics today:

RCP's averages this cycle just haven't been a fair average of the polling that's out there. Instead, cut offs are fairly deliberately set to show better results for Trump.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 04:34:12 PM EST
See my earlier comment taking average of polls is deceiving and statistically nonsense ... FiveThirtyEight lists the quality ranking of polls and one can filter the poor ones out  Bij tomorrow night we'll ridicule many pollsters that were way off.

It has been clear 😉 RCP listed the Rasmussen and Emerson polls more frequent that the true quality polls, that kept the average low to optically keep Trump in the race.

See the comparison with Andrew Johnson above. Trump has solidified his base of radicals during the four years ... that's approx. 35% of the electorate ... the Red States will turn Dark Red while he lost the Mid West Great Lakes states which he so surprisingly managed to steal from Hillary Clinton. Trump is toast.

by Oui on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 06:48:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Waving the White Flag ... the Insiders Know 🤗

Wall Street gains at open on Biden victory bets | CNBC |

by Oui on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 07:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final forecast FiveThirtyEight

Nonetheless, Biden's standing is considerably stronger than Clinton's at the end of the 2016 race. His lead is larger than Clinton's in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, 1 more than twice Clinton's projected margin at the end of 2016.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:49:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Lead by Seventeen Points

Death of National Polls as a guide for the American voter ...

The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy | The Atlantic |

This is a disaster for the polling industry and for media outlets and analysts that package and interpret the polls for public consumption, such as FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times' Upshot, and The Economist's election unit. They now face serious existential questions. But the greatest problem posed by the polling crisis is not in the presidential election, where the snapshots provided by polling are ultimately measured against an actual tally of votes: As the political cliché goes, the only poll that matters is on Election Day.

by Oui on Sun Nov 8th, 2020 at 01:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are a lot of people out there who won't answer honestly if they intend to vote fascist.  Imagine that.
by rifek on Fri Nov 13th, 2020 at 11:53:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You think Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight should retire? Quite disturbing on presidential poll and I don't need Monday morning quarterbacking.
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 10:38:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not bad thoughts here:



Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 05:18:31 PM EST
Some opinion from TheHill.com says that Trump will win big. So a Biden win might not be as sure.

Now what ?
by pi (etrib@opsec.eu) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 05:20:56 PM EST
The Hill is a right wing propaganda site.  They also said Progressives Congressional Representatives Ocasio-Cortez and Omar were in a close fight to be re-nominated and both won handily.

Ignore them.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 05:49:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Trump will win big"

not as such

Ignore them.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Nov 8th, 2020 at 05:20:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Politico is another Right Wing BS site and I hate to give them the clicks but even they have noticed this isn't 2016.

Trump's suburban crash drags House GOP down with him

In only four years, a crescent of Atlanta's northern suburbs has swung from a safe, iconic Republican House seat to a near-lock for Democrats -- a startling shift illustrating how far President Donald Trump and his party have fallen in the suburbs before the 2020 election.

Democrats poured money into a nationally watched special election for Georgia's 6th Congressional District in 2017 and lost by 4 points a seat Republicans won handily for decades. Then, Democrat Lucy McBath eked out a win a year later. Now, as private polling showed McBath with a double-digit lead -- and Joe Biden up by a similar margin -- Republicans quietly chose not to spend money trying to win it back in the closing weeks of the election.

Every indication says this will be repeated across the country.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 06:04:24 PM EST
"You cannot overstate the revulsion that many middle-class women have for Donald Trump," said former Rep. Martin Frost (D-Texas), who once led his party's campaign arm."

The meaning: this will affect the state wide presidential and Senate races as well.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 06:33:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
6PM Eastern.  Polls have closed in the eastern time zone of Indiana.

Here we go!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 11:02:51 PM EST
Obama took Indiana in 2008 but Trump has ~10 lead.  On the other hand polling is scant and mostly by fer-garbage pollsters.

And that's all I've got.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 3rd, 2020 at 11:50:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
8% of ballots counted??! Management gifts Pence??
projected winner

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:10:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:12:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There wasn't any doubt Kentucky would go Trump.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:17:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With a few counties nearing a full count, Biden is several points ahead of Hillary in almost every county. If this trend holds up statewide, he wins by a significant margin.

Caveat - I don't know the proportion of early to final day votes in the count to date

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:16:09 AM EST
The pre-Day word was Democrats would do well in the early going and then the GOP votes would eat away at the lead.

With 49% reporting

Biden: 51.3%
Trump: 47.9%

Last 538 Poll Accumulator had

Biden: 49.1%
Trump: 46.6%

So the results seem to be following the polling.

So far.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:24:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And then Miami results came in....

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:24:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A very minor but significant shift from Red to Blue ... Trump underperforming in Red counties and Biden outperforming Hillary in Blue counties ... very early, but Biden doing well ... however in Miami-Dade it appears Trump doing much better in the Cuban and Venezuelan communities ... in Duval county the pattern for Biden is encouraging ... promises to be a nailbiter for the night 😖 grab some more popcorn!
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:28:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Florida is the Go-To spot for Right Wingers from Latin and South America.  So the Trump support is to be expected.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:23:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
For what it is worth:

   We polled bellwether #Pinellas County, Florida one last time.

    Trump won Pinellas +1% (5,419 votes) in 2016.@StPetePolls final numbers: @JoeBiden 54%@realDonaldTrump 45%https://t.co/2jZch9L8Ig pic.twitter.com/TXcdxDkFu4
    -- Peter Schorsch (@PeterSchorschFL) November 3, 2020




She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:28:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
electproject

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:18:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Biden did terribly in Miami-Dade.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:24:16 AM EST
Well --- fuck

So F goes R again?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:29:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump winning with the Hispanics, Cubans, and Blacks (!)

Astonishing. I suspect some very carefully targeted online scare-campaigning.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:35:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So many people pre-voted anything you hear from Exit Polling is likely to be nonsense.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:37:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's votes counted, not exit polling. The current NYT projection shows >80% chance of Trump winning FL.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:39:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nonsense ... a nailbiter ... way too early to call! 🤣
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:46:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's now 95%. So much for FL.

The overall projection is still for Biden to win overall, although not decisively. But this assumes NC will go Biden because polling. And there are no votes counted yet.

So... perhaps. It's all worryingly within the MoE. And the polls suggested Biden was going to take FL with a 2% lead.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:47:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The real story in Florida seems to be that Biden just flubbed it.

As soon as the early vote dump came from Miami-Dade, friends and I immediately said Trump had Florida.  I didn't need to see anything else.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:31:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's a mistaken liberal expectation that non-white voters cannot possibly be right-leaning, and that's a deadly mistake.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:33:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:39:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:41:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:22:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:33:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No. Neither scares nor bots. You can't scare a magical margin of error that's got nothing more to lose, rightfully mistrust both figureheads, and is ready to run off the reservation. I warned y'all. The bottom fell out of the DNC bag.
Obama's unintelligible whistle-stop tour this past week for Biden certainly was no help at all, because it reminded people how big a disappointment that duo was.
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:16:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There was never any expectation SC would flip.  All the polling had Trump taking it.  

What will be interesting is the Senate race.  There is a slim possibility Ms. Lindsey will end-up losing.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:25:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
SC predictive power is uncontested -- "First in the South"--no? Or Kamala?!
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:44:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"women and minorities" edition
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:49:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On the other hand ........

Sumter County, with 67% for Trump and 87,000 votes, 93% reporting.

Important addendum: if you see Sumter Co., FL (The Villages) eventually report ~95k votes and it's:

    66% Trump or less: very good for Biden
    67%-68%: possibly good for Biden
    69%-70%: FL on track to be FL
    71%-72%: possibly good for Trump
    73%+ Trump: very good for Trump
    -- Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2020



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:35:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:30:17 AM EST
76% Precincts Reporting:

Biden: 50.4%
Trump: 48.7%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:42:17 AM EST
Was hoping for a quick resolution.  Won't happen


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:50:42 AM EST
It's going to come down to PA.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:54:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
PA is another Must Win for Trump.  Not a killer for Biden but it makes his path much harder.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:21:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All three NYT election needles are now for Trump.

NC looking very possible for Trump, which would be very bad indeed.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:27:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
NC and FL for Trump puts him at 222 or more, while IL for Bidem puts him at 183 according to 538's snake.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 03:47:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Make that 248 for Trump. Yikes.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:03:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Youngstown OH > Biden doing MUCH better than Hillary in 2016 ... Blue collar support!
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:55:49 AM EST
Trump winning FL and losing OH would be hilarious.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:57:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How can this be? No projection yet for Illinois! 😡
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:04:22 AM EST
They are still voting.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:17:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Like that's going to stop APsplainin?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:19:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Poll voting closed 20 minutes ago.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:22:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
four days ago
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:26:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I concede FL ... Miami-Dade is the breaking point for Biden ... moving on to the Mid-West.
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:19:26 AM EST
archived Tue Mar 5th, 2019
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:52:20 AM EST
Okay, so AP also called Colorado earlier. CO and NH for Biden vs. NC and FL for Trump still give me 216 to 248.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:29:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Very tough going, it definitely won't be a landslide ... too close to call. Will the disenfranchised voters once again be decisive! 😑
This also means the Senate race will be much closer than many pollsters projected. Need to get some sleep now. 😴
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:53:21 AM EST
archived 1st, 2nd helping of "no"
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 03:02:58 AM EST
grave yard shift called in!
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:46:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Two black senators is one too many.
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 03:14:57 AM EST
ooo boy. AP almost has me entertaining the possibility my prediction jinxed Biden's victory. Lucky for #US I held my tongue on the senate, which is the true power play anyway. Damn! It's not 23:00. I can't look away yet ...
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 03:41:33 AM EST
Positive outlook Arizona will turn Blue!

Biden's presidency hinges on the Blue Wall ... needs to keep MN and either get Pennsylvania or both WI and MI. Going down to the wire and a long aftermath.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 03:55:44 AM EST
Right now, Trump likely wins if he takes any teo of AZ, PA, MI or VA.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:07:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Though Biden taking NH means he probably wins VA too.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:16:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
AP sewed up VA for Biden 20 minutes after polls closed.
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:27:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, sorry. Catching up with AP right now.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:37:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That gives Biden 216 to Trump's 248.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:14:31 AM EST
No surprises there, obviously.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:22:04 AM EST
Could have called those, and Alaska and Hawaii, before the polls opened.
by rifek on Sat Nov 14th, 2020 at 12:09:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It appears, run-off scheduled 7 Dec, Pearl Harbor Day!
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:43:05 AM EST
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:53:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Cheeto wins OHIO
Paygo Pelosi buys CA-12, AGAIN
(drum roll)
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:23:24 AM EST
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:32:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Okay, MN for Biden is 226 to 248.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:50:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:50:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:22:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Shiit 😏🙃🌪💨.Am I awake?? Is this America 2020 ... haven't checked out all maps ... 1st comment, a contested election ... no president elect ... two candidates tied for the presidency ... will Trump declare a state of National Emergency ... will he declare SCOTUS to decide?
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:22:09 AM EST
Twitter, Facebook Slap Warning Labels on Trump's Tweet Charging Democrats With Trying to `Steal' Election | Variety |

Ahhh ... Trump @WhiteHouse declaring he wiil remain president ...

I woke up in hell with Satan speaking "don't count the votes"

Will go to SCOTUS to stop counting votes 😢😢😢

NIGHTMARE

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:31:22 AM EST
Keyne West also declared victory. So now we have 2 presidents.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:32:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fox News calling one out of the five Nebraska EV for Biden. Trump won all five in 2016.
by Bernard on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:46:39 AM EST
This is good news because according to 538's pre-election Rolling average NE1 was about level with AZ and PA in margin of victory for Biden.

At this point, being simple-minded about it, one could give Biden 279 to Trump's 248, with AZ's 11 EVs undecided. But of course this asumes Trump doesn't take Pennsylvania's vote count to the courts.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 08:02:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
AP calling Arizona for Biden:

by Bernard on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 08:05:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, good! I'm going to call that for Biden, then, because even holding up PA with a court challenge leaves the base scenario with 270 for Biden and 248 for Trump, who would have to contest another state.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 08:09:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... and the automatic recounts ... could very well end up by SCOTUS.
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 08:26:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Never ever argue poll numbers again !! Miserable
Proven once again, only one True poll ... the vote of the people 🌪
Great number of Americans came out to vote in a pandemic!

My anxiety started with the first exit poll:
Was the corona pandemic handled well?
Yes 48% , No 52%
That's worrying ... misleading and fake news running ramoant.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 08:11:20 AM EST
As of 08:00 UTC / 03:00a ET / 12:00a PT

Biden: 238
Trump: 213

Still to be counted: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Alaska.

As in 2016, the must-win states for Trump are GA, NC, PA, and either MI or WI.

As predicted, Trump already claiming "they" are trying to steal the election. Heavy litigation in some or all the above states to be expected.

by Bernard on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 08:20:09 AM EST
If Trump challenges the count of mail-in votes in PA, MI and WI, I have him at 248 to Biden's 244. Even flipping Georgia doesn't help Biden in that scenario because he gets 260. It looks like Bush/Gore all over again, then.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 08:40:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
from SCOTUS, per curiam
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 08:42:59 AM EST
Another convention Trump is breaking is to allow the loser to concede first.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 08:44:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's never really been a Republican tradition - especially not in close races.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:00:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He's lost MN without even Nov 4 "segregated ballot" add-in, 52%-45%. MN Secretary of State
Due to court order, absentee ballots will continue to be accepted by counties after election day, up to November 10, 2020, if the ballots were postmarked by election day. ...
As for Pennsyltucky's night shift?
Election Results​
Cheeto 55%-42% with 3 more counting days to go.

He's such an ass. He can't let it go. But I'd bet, SCOTUS will let the process run its course without comment.

by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:33:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Whatever the end result, it's enormously disappointing that Trump attracted far more voters ... IS AMERICA LOST?

'I'm more enthusiastic now than in 2016': meet the voters standing by Donald Trump | The Guardian |

The "Blue" state of Pennsylvania will go to Trump with a Bigger win than in 2016 against Hillary ... just unbelievable. Outstanding mail-in ballots are 1.4 million, won't get Biden a majority as his deficit is 700K.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:06:56 AM EST
Pennsyltucky is not a "blue state" (if by this you infer affluent Atlantic metropolic) when one considers the legislature, graft, pederasty, foster home trafficking, and long, long history of race antagony.

archived Fri May 3rd, 2019

by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 10:03:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Things are looking very bad right now in the Midwest with outstanding mail-in votes likely insufficient to turn things around for Biden. It may end up being that Arizona was an outlier in a clear Trump win.

At which point one has to wonder what's wrong with the US, what's wrong with the Democratic party, and what to do about four more years of Trump.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 11:04:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The behavior of the American voter is beyond pale. According to CNN analysis Arizona has not been declared for Biden ... and Nevada is still in play for Trump. Nevertheless I'm still optimistic!
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 11:33:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We've always thought 35% of the country was a mob of oblivious, delusional imbeciles.  We now know it's closer to 50%.
by rifek on Sat Nov 14th, 2020 at 12:18:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The proportion is demonstrably much greater than that every hour, every day that citizens and "noncitizens" express pervasive antisocial behaviors and dissociative personality disorders d/b/a "rational self-interested actor," epitomized by the agreement between Moscow Mitch and Constitutional Scholar Obama on reparations for descendants of US slaves, not to mention Ilhan Omar's admiration of Margaret Thatcher and continuing SARS-COv-2 "community spread". BIBLICAL.
by Cat on Sat Nov 14th, 2020 at 08:11:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean, it feels completely inevitable. Of course Joe Biden, who has been failing at running for president for longer than I've been alive wouldn't suddenly win. Of course the mythical wealthy old racist suburburbian swing voters who voted straight Republican all their lives would not massively break D now.
by generic on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:19:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eh.  The suburbanites actually did break to Biden.

The Hispanic/Latino vote is where Biden fell way short.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:33:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I haven't seen any suburbs broken out of data, but that doesn't look like a successful "lose one blue collar, win two suburbs" result to me;

by generic on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:42:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This could all be true, of course, but I think people are taking these exit polls far too seriously.  I didn't even look at the exits last night.

Given the differences in how people are voting this year, I think it's highly questionable that Edison was about to get a good, properly-weighted sample.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:55:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, it's probably all bullshit at the moment. Today of all days is not a good time to start taking pols seriously.
by generic on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:13:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think given the results in some areas (with some variance by state/region), we can say a few things:

1/ Trump made gains with Latino folks -- especially Cubans but also non-Cubans.

2/ Biden didn't get the gains he needed with seniors.

3/ Biden roughly hit expectations in the suburbs.

How big those shifts were nationwide is tough to tell:  For example, Trump seems to have managed double-digit shifts along the border in Texas with Latino folks, Biden seems to have managed double-digit shifts in the suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta.  In other places, the shifts seem more muted.

Beyond that, I don't think we can say a whole lot about the demographic movements.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:20:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With the amount of early vote and mail-I   vote and the correlation of those with Democratic vote, I don't think exit polls are very reliable this time around.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
what's wrong with the US

The two party system makes it easy to shut out any real alternatives and the combination of that and imperial power and the money slushing into the system creates politics for the oligarchs.

what's wrong with the Democratic party

I would say a party establishment that uses primaries not to find strong candidates but instead to shut out internal opponents and install trusted operatives who may be bad at winning elections but can be counted on to tow a neo-liberal, pro-empire, nothing-will-change party line. Vote us! Republicans are worse!

And since this strategy failed in 2016 they have used a racist conspiracy theory to create an echo-chamber, mirroring that of the Fox-news-addicted republicans where any day now the Whitewater documents long form birth certificate next bombshell will appear and get rid of the illegitimate president, who is after all a Dirty hippie Kenyan muslim Russian puppet and not the True presidentTM

Combined with the need to please the donors, the echo-chamber led to a strategy where going after republicans looked like a very sensible strategy. But 93% of republicans voted Trump according to the exit polls, up from 90% in 2016.  So if Biden wins, the strategy was still flawed.

by fjallstrom on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 03:22:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Madness in America:

Kenoshs county was a close call and win for Hillary ... today a blow-out win for Trump!

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:43:28 AM EST
law 'n' order. Biden carries the electors at the convenience of 72 county clerk websites.
Wolfe said that because of the high numbers of absentee ballots to be counted, it is hard to predict when those unofficial results will be posted on the county clerks' websites.  She explained the steps that go into getting those results from polling places to the counties.

Wolfe said the polls normally close at 8 p.m. unless there are still voters waiting in line at 8 p.m.  If there are still absentee ballots that have not yet been counted at 8 p.m., poll workers will continue processing them until they are finished.  State law does not permit them to stop working until all of the absentee ballots have been counted.
[...]
If the election is close, meaning within 1% of the winner's total vote, the second-place  candidate has the right to request a recount.  Wisconsin does not have automatic recounts, even if the unofficial results are extremely close. ..

AP reporting Nov 3 is a scandal.
by Cat on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 10:31:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin latest update: Biden in lead by 11,381 votes
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:45:14 AM EST
Wisconsin - NY Times | with 89% counted.
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:51:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Biden lead shrinks to 7,200 ... Milwaukee returns 100% counted ... mail-in ballots in Red counties are outstanding 😖
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 10:45:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What data is Nate Silver using?

ABC News - Wisconsin Election Results

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 11:05:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is more to Wisconsin than just Milwaukee:

by Bernard on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:51:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Kenosha County voting is complete and went with slight majority to Trump
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:46:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
City of Kenosha - Kenosha county

I am assuming that is the difference.

by det on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:34:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nevada too close to call 🙃
If Trump turns this State Red, his pathway to 270 becomes much easier. BAD NEWS
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 10:28:30 AM EST
Election official states next update on the 5th ... have till the 10th to count de predominately absentee or mail-in ballots.
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 11:09:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Michigan 2020 election results

Large chunk of Democratic counties tabulated, Trump lead cut down to 64,000. Still in play for Joe Biden.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 11:43:48 AM EST
Looks like Biden is favored to take AZ/NV/WI/MI and a very slight favorite in GA.  

Trump seems favored in NC.  

PA seems unclear.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 11:51:40 AM EST
This is a 270 - 248 result with PA's 20 un play.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:10:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, if it all broke that way, it'd be 286-232 with PA TBD.  Biden's the slight favorite in GA.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:46:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks to me like Biden's probably going to get Wisconsin and Michigan.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 12:57:45 PM EST
If that's so (+NV and confirming AZ already called for Biden by AP and Fox News), it's game over.
by Bernard on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:00:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wasserman seems to think Biden's going to get AZ, WI, MI and PA.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 01:16:44 PM EST
Biden camp thinks they're going to get Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada.  They seem to think they may well get Georgia, but that it'll be close.

NYT's godforsaken needle meter thing now has Biden up to 64% to win GA for whatever that's worth.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 02:16:33 PM EST
Preview

Electoral College & Indecisive Elections

The Electoral Commission comprised of House Members, Senators, and Supreme Court Justices investigated the disputed Electoral College ballots from the South after the 1876 presidential election. The Commission, seen here meeting by candle light in the Old Supreme Court Chamber in the Capitol, awarded all the disputed ballots to Rutherford B. Hayes, who became President by a single electoral vote.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 03:38:42 PM EST
I have been following the numbers since this morning through the Guardian. This is the most useful web page, especially the summary with votes left to count by state.

Things definitely look going Biden's way at this moment. But remarkable how narrow it is in so many states. Final result for Nevada should be announced this evening. If Biden wins that, then Michigan and Wisconsin are enough to get to 270. Arizona will take some days, but looks secured by Biden.  

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:03:17 PM EST
Just read in the FiveThirtyEight blog that Arizona has reached 99% of the count this morning and Biden remains ahead by more than 3%. Even if Biden wins only the other states in which he is currently ahead the White House is his.  

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:14:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately an update on 538 suggests that interpretation was incorrect.

Not sure if AZ is still in play for Trump, but at best it's going to be much closer than hoped.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:36:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, there was apparently some glitch at the Arizona Secretary of State's website?  Apparently it's only 86%.

From what I understand, Biden is still a heavy favorite given what's outstanding, but it's not in the bag yet.

The Wisconsin SOS says they're done counting, and Biden's up 22k votes, so he's probably got that.

I think he'll get Michigan, because it seems to be all mail votes and tilted heavily towards Metro Detroit.

So that'd be 270.

I've no earthly idea where we land in Georgia and Pennsylvania.  The PA margin closed quite a bit as some votes came in from the Philly region -- and again, I think it's basically just mail voting left now, so it should continue closing.

In Georgia, Trump's up about 2% (102k votes), but it sounds like we still have quite a bit left from ATL and the suburbs (especially southern suburbs which are more heavily Dem).  But, like PA, no idea how that shakes out.  The data folks at the NYT think Biden's about a 2/1 favorite there.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:04:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Captain Oompa Loompa is not happy about how it's going.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324032541544927233

Obviously he's going to declare victory regardless, but... whatever.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:29:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, they're floating trial balloons about "legal routes" in PA and GA, which probably says a lot.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:34:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PA margin's gone from Trump +16 or 17 to Trump +8 already, and we have a lot of Pittsburgh -- both proper and "collar counties" -- Philly left.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:37:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump is going to ask for a recount in Wisconsin so strike that one from Biden's column.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:05:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's going to ask for recounts everywhere. Total waste of everyone's time.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's a waste of everyone's time? His game is to prevent results from being certified so Republican state legislatures get to appoint the Electors. That's definitely not a waste of his people's time.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a waste of time when it's a ridiculously overt attempt to steal the election.

A 20k recount? That's an unhinged attempt to delegitimise a legitimate result just because it didn't go his way. Even if the goal is to prevent certification that's a hail mary pass, not a credible election-winning strategy.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:50:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have the same thought here that I had with DeSantis and Rick Scott in 2018:

A recount isn't at all likely to move 20k votes.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:30:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Florida in 2000:  Sure, it's 500 votes.  A recount could change that.

20k in Wisconsin?  No.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He doesn't want to change the result. He wants to prevent the result from being certified.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:21:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I'm not mistaken the Florida recount was never completed among other things because of violence by Bush supporters. Then came the state court decision to stop the recount on equal protection grounds which the SCotUS upheld.

The point is not to complete the recounts.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:28:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it wasn't completed.  But, again, that's 500 votes in a state of then -- what, 16 million or so?  We're talking 20,000 votes in a state of, like, 17 sausage-makers and brewers.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 01:01:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Final result for Nevada should be announced this evening.

See my earlier comment. The next update will be announced on the 5th.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:23:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My bad. The states likely to report full (or nearly full) results still today are Minnesota, Wisconsin and Georgia.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:58:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Michigan press briefing last hour conveys tabulation is moving quicker than expected ... later today the unofficial rally and on Friday the definite certification (?).

Explains the county websites show earliest tally which in due time will be incorporated in the state's total after checks.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:07:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hillary. Blew the unloseable election.
Biden. It should never have been this close.
AND HE LOST THE FRICKIN SENATE!

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 04:51:09 PM EST
Somebody tell me I'm wrong : the Dems are likely to lose the House too?
Certainly they lose a dozen seats, perhaps more.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:09:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the networks have all already called the House for the Dems?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Agreed. Sending some fu**ing elderly idiots back to Washington to the Trump swamp is frustrating.

With a great turnout, how in the name of the Almighty did all those White guys vote for this gangster and mob boss.

Biden  69,241,130 (50.2%)
Trump. 68,412,727 (48,2%)

... and still counting.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:20:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This white/white-supremacy dysfunction goes back a long time. White America has not voted for a Democratic president since at least JFK. Bill Clinton came within 1% point.

America's Problem is That White People Want It to Be a Failed State

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:18:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now that we've had a few minutes to contemplate that Susan Collins remains a Senator, that's enough to tell us Schumer's time is up. How does one continually lose elections which can't be lost?

i've been in Yurp for two decades, but i spent more than two decades in California. Dianne PGE Feinstein should have been toast before i left, and i've been lucky enough to have had enough private time with her to tell her just that... several times.

Though i've spoken to Pelosi personally less often, every discussion was high quality. And her triangulation of impeachment probably was the right choice, though i would have pressed for a broader and deeper indictment. But now it's her time to go.

I would also like to take a moment to say a heartfelt fuckyoutoo to Beto O'Rourke. He didn't have close to the experience to run for Preznit, he should have spent two years preparing to beat Cornyn. But no, ego takes charge, i can be president on charisma alone. No you can't. Had he run for Senate, Texas would be Blue... (possibly, na, probably).

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:10:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference between Biden carrying 300+ electoral votes and Trump winning narrowly is pretty damned narrow.

Gun-to-my-head, I'd guess Biden lands at 290 and wins the popular vote by about 4.5.  Although I enjoy a hand of blackjack now and then, I wouldn't bet on either the over or under.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:10:07 PM EST
Florida and Pennsylvania flip eith a 2.5-3% shift in the electoral vote relative to 538's poll averages. It was that close.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:07:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Twitter moderator busy flagging every 2nd tweet as misleading ... LOSER!

Even removing the original tweet ...

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 05:58:25 PM EST
Expect this: recounts, legal challenges, and politics of scorched earth in the months leading to a possible handover, and the handover itself will be sabotaged.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:26:55 PM EST
Wisconsin Election Law

Automatic recount automatically triggered in close elections <1%

CHAPTET 9 - POST-ELECTION ACTIONS; DIRECT LEGISLATION

b. That the petitioner is informed and believes that a mistake or fraud has been committed in a specified ward or municipality in the counting and return of the votes cast for the office or upon the question or that another specified defect, irregularity, or illegality occurred in the conduct of the election.

Key States Could Be Headed Toward Recounts. Here Are the Rules.

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:43:49 PM EST
Re: Wisconsin recount. Here is the substance of  Scott Walker's Tweet:
Scott Walker (@ScottWalker)

After recount in 2011 race for WI Supreme Court, there was a swing of 300 votes. After recount in 2016 Presidential race in WI, @realDonaldTrump numbers went up by 131.

As I said, 20,000 is a high hurdle



"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 06:50:47 PM EST
The polls were wrong, and as always, in a new way. Highest turnout in history: millions of people who usually don't bother, turned up on the day. They are, by definition, not on the pollsters' radar. And they are low information voters, and Don seems a fun guy.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:10:04 PM EST
first one must take into account that 25% of amurka are dangerous fundamentalist xtians, who know the world is 8,438 years old, because it says so in the bibble. they also support fascism in Israel, because it brings us closer to the rapture. they can turn the other cheek when trump lets the saudi ruler commit dismemberment.

then one must take into account the rebirth of Goebbels, with more money, tools and power than even he ever imagined. the propaganda free market enterprise in toto, not just Rupertvision, is already professional beyond his wildest dreams. the trumpers don't even know what a horror they are supporting, they're wild calling him Superman for overcoming Covid (did he?), but they don't know why he's so stuck on fucking Iran, and let Turkey purge US allies.

Also, the Scopes Trial never left. Balding, fat, impotent men still decide the law must state that creationism MUST be taught alongside the "theory" of Darwinism in the schools... there's good people on both sides of climate chaos.

My nurse (it sounds so much better if i call her Mein Krankenschwester) insists that i stop being writerly aggressive, and return to lascivious drinking.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:27:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump will push them all the way to the supreme court, and he is convinced that that they will throw out twenty thousand votes in whatever state, if that's what it takes to get him re-elected.

Because they owe him.

I don't think they will.
Discuss.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:13:41 PM EST
The recounts will be a formality and will take only one or two days. All of the ballots have been vetted and prepared to be run through machines once already. The legal problem Trump's challenges face is that the only real grounds are that Trump and the Republicans don't like the results. Trump's team will have to be very fortunate in the judges they get to hear their cases. A strongly worded rejection by a judge prejudices further appeals. But there are some who don't care.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 01:22:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:41:50 PM EST
I think the suit in Michigan says it all: they know they are going to lose. The election proper is done, we just wait the confirmation. Now starts the legal/constitutional battle.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:51:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A few states remain in play. Biden would need to win 67% of the remaining uncounted vote to win Georgia, 61% to win N. Carolina, and 57% to win Pennsylvania. Depending on the degree to which remaining uncounted votes represent early mail voters, these percentages are not unachievable.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 07:42:11 PM EST
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 08:31:01 PM EST
Michigan called for Biden as WINNER!
by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:21:28 PM EST
Ok, so... Nevada will do now.
Trump is toasty.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:50:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Called by who?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 09:50:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent analysis and data per district and vote count - CNN News

Useful ...

US Election 2020: Results and exit poll in maps and charts | BBC News |

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 10:43:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PBS, NBC, CNN, CBS, ABC, NYT, AP, Reuters,....

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 01:16:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... and that well-known socialist antifa librul network: Fox News.

by Bernard on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 01:46:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nevada and Arizona seem secure for Boden. Actually, NC and Georgia look excellent too. Trump can play games with Philadelphia, but the guillotine is falling. (Or call it a window of opportunity closing)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 10:13:10 PM EST
Thank you Omaha!

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 11:09:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The damage to democracy in the US from four years of Trump will has been profound.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 10:47:52 PM EST
It seems like a country that has let itself go. Like a person that has managed so far by failing forward while drinking toasts to the former glory years. The old boxing champion swinging at itself.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 11:08:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
John Bolton riding shotgun for Republicans in Palm Beach County vote count in 2000 ... plenty of crowds pushing into hall where vote counting took place .... butterfly ballots and hanging chads.

Close election? In 2000, all eyes were on Florida, and Palm Beach County because of the butterfly ballot

by Oui on Wed Nov 4th, 2020 at 11:19:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't remember when I first heard some US press person preening over their unique peaceful transfer of power, but it took quite a bit longer for me to learn that their special trick was that one party kept blatantly stealing the election, while the other concedes. A dynamic that started at least with Nixon. I'm not confident that it'll change now.


Though I'm also not sure if the GOP is really trying to steal the election or just going through the motions. Of course Donny can't lose and it has to be fraud, but if I'm the turtle in charge of the GOP I'd take the senate, supreme court and someone to blame for mishandling the pandemic and depression over another four years.
by generic on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 11:32:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If one can find a way to blame outside forces, one can avoid any self-reflection.

For Democrats in 2016 it was RussiaRussiaRussia! bullshit. If, by any chance, Trump still pulls out a victory, I wonder who the Dems are gonna blame this time around?

There has been already some voices saying that achieving neck-to-neck victory against a person like Trump during a mismanaged pandemic and a record unemployment is not good enough -- so maybe, just maybe, Democrats may take a long look at the mirror. But I doubt.

I also doubt that without public health care and paid sick leave, even Jesus H. Christ himself couldn't do much to prevent the pandemic running it's course.

by pelgus on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 12:00:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
McConnell Says Congress Should Pass Economic Relief Bill This Year WSJ Updated Nov. 4, 2020 4:00 pm ET
Senate majority leader says he supports aid to schools, hospitals and small businesses, but not a more sweeping Democratic proposal

WASHINGTON--Congress should pass a new economic-relief package this year, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Wednesday, as prospects for Democrats' multitrillion-dollar stimulus bill faded along with their chances for full control of the government.

Lawmakers have been deadlocked for months over further aid, with Republicans insisting on liability protections for businesses and Democrats seeking aid for state and local governments. With the outcome of Tuesday's elections still in doubt, Mr. McConnell (R., Ky.) signaled that he would try to move this year, with President Trump assured of still being in office for at least that time.

"We need another rescue package," Mr. McConnell said in Kentucky. "Hopefully the partisan passions that prevented us from doing another rescue package will subside with the election. We need to do it, and I think we need to do it before the end of the year."


For what it is worth.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 03:55:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not particularly close in Michigan anymore.  Wisconsin can do a recount.

By the sound of the data geeks on Twitter, it sounds like Pennsylvania may wind up bluer than Michigan.

Also, if I'm understanding what's left correctly (not a guarantee), it seems like Biden may get Georgia.  Which might truly be the most bizarre thing I've ever seen given the rest of the map.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 01:04:32 AM EST
Biden getting Georgia is very good because it looks Arizona might go for Trump.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 05:42:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently 120k votes to go in GA.  Biden's down about 35k.

The 120k votes apparently are in Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett.

In other words, Atlanta.  This is already very close.  It will be razor-thin.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 01:47:58 AM EST
CNN had not projected a Biden WIN in the state of Arizona. The Trump campaign wanted the votes to be counted. In the most recent batches from Maricopa County, Trump is closing the gap. There are still 320K ballots outstanding which includes 17K from Pino County which is Democratic leaning. It's going to be extremely close!
by Oui on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 07:52:02 AM EST

by generic on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 10:54:59 AM EST
So Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report has this shtick where he'll say, "I've seen enough, (candidate x) wins (state/district/whatever)."

He can't do that with the presidential because of contractual obligations with NBC's Decision Desk, but...



Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 11:53:26 AM EST
Maricopa County Results are listed on their website ...

Election Summary Report General Election Maricopa County - November 3, 2020

Candidate  Party  Total
TRUMP / PENCE   REP  838,071  46.76%
BIDEN / HARRIS DEM   912,585  50.92%
JORGENSEN / COHEN LBT  24,409  1.36%
Write-in   6,159  0.34%
Total Votes  1,781,224

Once tabulated, means
BIDEN WON ARIZONA!

No other conclusion, as on CNN the county was RED, now has ended BLUE!!

(Posted earlier on wrong thread)

by Oui on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 12:32:30 PM EST
by Oui on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 12:37:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
😏 May have jumped the gun ... report from Maricopa may be a preliminary report and not all ballots counted 💥💥

In TV interview, election commissioner referred to the County website for latest tally. Arizona still stands overall at 86% counted ...

by Oui on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 01:21:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 09:19:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
USAToday splainin APsplainin 2020 Georgia President Election Results
Cheeto 49.6%-49.2%, Jill Nader 1.2%
by Cat on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 02:08:58 PM EST
Allegheny County PA had stopped the count of 29,000 ballots due to a legal challenge.

In Georgia there are yet 52,000 ballots across all counties to be tallied. Biden has closed the gap to 14,750, however doing the math this will end in a dead heat with a separation of just a hundred votes. 😉

by Oui on Thu Nov 5th, 2020 at 05:05:45 PM EST


Display:
Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]