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Infection rates - the numbers done simply

by ARGeezer Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 12:52:57 AM EST

This diary was inspired by Frank's "Corona Virus gets Real' diary and Number 6's "Flattening the Cruve" comment.

Using figures from Wiki for numbers of infections reported by states it appears that the doubling rate is  a little more than two days. As of March 13 there had been 2,160 cases reported by US states. Rounding down to 2000 for that date and using two days as the doubling time interval, by March 31 there should be over 1,024,000 reported cases. By April 18 at a two day doubling interval 262,144,000 cases, or ~ 80% of the population could have been infected.

The cases by March 31 are unlikely to be affected by new 'social isolation' measures, as the incubation period is as much as 14 days, and most of these future patients are already infected. And these numbers are surely an undercount, as they are restricted to only those cases that have come to the attention of the medical profession and we rounded the first number down to 2000 from 2,160 for ease of presentation.

Continuing with this sequence through April, but assuming that on April 1 the social distancing has increased to doubling time to four days, so there are seven doubling times until April 28, when the number of infections are projected to be 131,072,000 - over a third of the US population.

Frontpaged - Frank Schnittger

Continuing at a four day  rate for one more doubling, by May 2 there would be 262,144,000 infected. But at this point we are at ~ 80% of the US population and the model, hopefully, has broken down, as the infection rate will run into a limitation of available hosts. Some will have natural immunity, some will just be too remote to be affected and a lot of the cases will have been mild with the victim having acquired some immunity.

To assess impact let us take the March 31 date and value of 1,024,000 persons infected. If 10 % require intensive care that is 102,400 patients - greater than the total number of critical care beds in the USA. And most of those critical care beds are already in use on any given day. Our hospitals are certainly NOT oversized. So triage will have been implemented probably around a week earlier - say by March 25 - when the number of patients equaled 128,000.

Here is the sequence I used: 2,000, 4,000, 8,000, 16,000, 32,000, 64,000, 128,000, 256,000, 512,000, 1,024,000 etc. The start date used is March 13, 2020. The doubling rate used was 48 hours or two days. This gives one million twenty four thousand cases by March 31.

Let us see what happens with a different assumption abut doubling time. With the urgent action we are starting to see from governments let us assume that aggressive social distancing increases the doubling time to four days starting March 21 when there are 32,000 cases. On 3-25 there will be 64,000, on 3-29 there will be 128,000, on 4-2 256,000, on 4-6 512,000 and on 4-10 1,024,000 instead of reaching that number by March 31.

Now it takes until Mar-25 to reach 64,000 and it takes until April 18 or May-12, depending on assumptions, to reach 262,144,000 or ~ 80% of the population instead of reaching that number by April 18 or May-2. Ten to fourteen whole days for me to contemplate my possible demise, given I have kidney function reduced to 40% and am missing the right lower lobe of my lungs. If I get the disease I had better get a mild case, as at age 77 I would be unlikely to be selected for intensive care.

I might have a one in five chance of surviving or not even getting the disease, as I live in a town of ~ 12,500 and we are isolated by the Ozarks from larger cities. But then there are those who regularly travel to larger cities, including truck drivers who deliver the food and other supplies we consume. Oh brave new global economy wherein there are such features.

The theoretical science behind policy of western politicians is simply: don't do the tests and don't count. The politicians have lost weeks by fooling themselves as calling it a flu influenza.

Our leaders believe in "herd immunity" thereby offering the elderly as victims during the first wave of the virus. The summer months will see the outbreak subside. In next fall and winter season a second wave will hit once again, the communal immunity will limit the speed of the coronavirus spreading.

There are many reasons for the elderly and persons with underlying serious illness to isolate themselves from society ... social separation to perfection. Yes, serving self-interest for the coming months. It's not all gloom, however a virus pandemic is a bit more than uncomfort.

Stay well, prepare and for worst case scenario organize social support with contamination precautions in place.

What the experts tell us, the ones I listen to, when the government don't do the tests, the spread of the virus is uncertain. The true numbers are multiple -- sometimes a tenfold -- of what the CDC and here locally the RIVM publish.

The greatest harm is to the first responders, doctors, nurses and the many volunteers.

After a poor start, China did a lot to catch up and now are in control. South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore have done well.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 04:26:17 AM EST
I know a few people who are super-networkers with four figure Facebook friend lists.

Based on some very noisy sampling, a ballpark estimate suggests around 100,000 symptomatic cases of CV in the UK already. If some people are asymptomatic, the number could be some multiple of that.

No UK deaths on those networks, but one in Italy.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 10:19:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think your use of the term "herd immunity" is off.
by asdf on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 10:37:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Conservative theoretici shaping society

See definitions in my posts:

Disease modelling by Graham Medley, advisor to BoJo

Yesterdays briefing to the nation by PM Mark Rutte:

Building group immunity in a controlled way

Herd immunity should be part of a large scale immunization program to eradicate a disease, not by the hand of three gods in politics ...

"Herd Immunity" -- A Rough Guide

Britain must change course - and resume Covid-19 testing to protect frontline NHS staff | The Guardian |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 08:10:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Experts here are expecting the Irish numbers to double every 2/3 days until the effects of the social isolation measures kick in.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 05:29:00 PM EST
Well, yes, that's how it works. About a week, I guess, with what, 20 deaths expected?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 05:45:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In France, the numbers are doubling every 72h/ 3 days as well. The Macron government just announced a complete lockdown "Spanish style" (or Italian style?), but any effect on the numbers shouldn't be visible until 10 days at least, most likely three weeks.
by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 09:28:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At the moment our hospital system is still working within capacity and so the deaths might remain low for longer. The two who died were in their 80's with pre-existing conditions (one terminal) and may not have had much longer to go anyway.

However more and more hospital staff are testing positive and we may end up without enough hospital staff sooner rather than later. My daughter works in St. James' Hospital (largest one in Ireland) and expects to get it sooner rather than later (close colleagues already down). She has sent fiance to his parents house and has totally self isolated.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 07:42:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to an article by Al Jazera as of March 16 Ireland had 169 cases. Has anyone seen a list of total cases identified by date? The population of Ireland is less than 5 million. At a 48hr or two day doubling time the total number infected would be 2,768,896 on April 13. At that point the model would start to break down. Also unknown is the effect that social isolation numbers will have in Ireland.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 02:12:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All the data you need is here. Leo Varadker is forecasting 15,000 cases by the end of March.

For global data see here

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 03:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US numbers are worthless.  Very limited supply of test kits means very limited testing meaning very limited data on the scale of the problem.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 06:51:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Presumably the real numbers will start appearing in the deaths column, if they do honest postmortems , that is.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 07:36:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FLORIDA oncologist treated my dad (81) for atypical prostate cells. No tumor present. He got forty (40) consecutive days radiation exposure. 60 days later WBC ->0. Prescribed weekly transfusions to treat acquired AML, pro-forma assignment to bone marrow transplant, Medicare billing hours "medical team" BALLOONS. Dies 8 months later.

Cause of Death printed on certificate?
"failure to thrive"

by Cat on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 07:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I hated too give your post an 'excellent', but there is no alternative. When did your dad die? I had prostate cancer diagnosed in 2000 and tried hormone therapy to shrink the prostate prior to planned 'brachiotherapy', but the prostate did not shrink sufficiently and I elected to go with radical  prostatectomy. I had three data points that I could connect to an exponential curve.

A few years later my younger brother had a similar problem but different recommendations. He waited longer and found that, though the PSA rose to twice what had triggered my decision, it later declined and then bounced around.

Between my case and his urologists had learned a bit about the progression. But, if the cancer metastasizes it often goes to bone and can lead to a very painful death. My doctor was with Kaiser, and they are large enough to have their own statistical analysis. I don't fault them. It was just a hard call at the time.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Mar 18th, 2020 at 09:30:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2012, about 2 years before the Brachytherapy "best practice" fad faded.
by Cat on Thu Mar 19th, 2020 at 02:24:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here in New Mexico we mathematically hit 80% of the population in the middle of April.  In actuality we could get there as early as the end of this month since over half of the state's population live in three metropolitan areas: Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Cruces.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 07:35:56 PM EST
Using technology to try to predict stuff. Lots of obvious shortcomings in this method but it makes interesting case.


by asdf on Wed Mar 25th, 2020 at 11:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]



MSM numerology

by Cat on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 08:31:05 PM EST
by Cat on Wed Mar 18th, 2020 at 03:10:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Colorado went from 1 to 131 confirmed cases in 10 days. 1.63^10 = 132.

We bought a month's supply of rice and squash and beans, so hopefully won't starve. Stores are completely out of toilet paper and ammunition.

Many of the cases are in the mountain areas where the ski resorts have many out-of-state visitors. The ski areas are closed now.

by asdf on Mon Mar 16th, 2020 at 10:50:09 PM EST
The 1.63 figure represents the doubling time, I presume, which is shorter in Colorado than in the nation, which is more like 2.1. (I rounded down to 2 for simplicity of presentation. Two things come to mind that might affect this number: social distancing and the number of loci of infection. I used a lumped analysis for simplicity, but a more accurate approach would be to use aggregated analysis of individual loci of infection. I see no reason why the doubling time should be identical in any of the separate loci. And the figures could be all over the place.

For instance, let us presume that one major loci was a ski resort. Social distance might be very low and a lot of people could quickly be infected. Most of these people might leave the resort before the first case is confirmed there, especially with this being in the USA. Now some of the unsymptomatic infected might leave the resort and some of those might go back to a college town, where many more people could be exposed before the first infection is confirmed. That new locus would likely have a low doubling number and a high number of infected individuals.

But others exposed at the ski resort might go back to a remote farm or ranch where there are only a handful of potential targets, thus limiting the scope of that locus. Still others might leave the state, carrying the infection to different states. They would not be counted in the state statistics if they were not detected before they left.

The daily number of infected people shown in the Wiki graph I used would indicate that the national rate of doubling is a bit longer than it could be based on the Colorado number. But the USA is so woefully behind in testing that it is hard to draw any solid conclusions. I heard tonight that the Governor of Connecticut has twenty nurses from ONE hospital in his state that are home on self isolation because of possible exposure, where they have to remain because he cannot get them tested so that those not infected could return to work.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 01:43:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually the 1.63 is the daily increase ratio. The doubling time is 1.42 days.

We are up to 160 since yesterday, and 131 * 1.63 = 213 so it is sort of noisy, as would be expected. Also there was a change in counting; they are no longer requiring the tests to go to the CDC for verification. That might skew things a bit.

Our official site, for your amusement. Probably not much different from anybody else. Although a big chunk of Silicon Valley in California is in household lockdown, which we are not up to yet.

Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment

by asdf on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 03:25:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not sure what direction UK should be pointing today, the rest seems valid:


by Number 6 on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 09:25:49 AM EST
" In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US. "


by asdf on Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 10:54:09 PM EST
These are numbers that prompted Johnson and Trump to quietly change their approach. But a lot of time has been wasted. At this rate, we'll have to seal off the Channel tunnel...
by Bernard (bernard) on Wed Mar 18th, 2020 at 06:13:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clearly, relatively few patients will be treated in both countries. A vaccine is some way away - if it's possible at all - so the only hope for most people is going to be successful testing and crash approval of the handful of various treatments that are being trialled.

Chloroquine seems to be cheap, generic, and fairly effective. More exotic - and expensive - antivirals are also being tested.

If none of the above happen in time the UK's death rate will be on the order of Italy's. Assuming an 80% infection rate and 3% mortality (which is less than the 7% in Italy) there would be around 1.5 million deaths.

A 7% mortality rate would mean 3.5 million dead in the UK - which would be equivalent to dropping a nuke on one of the UK's larger cities.

It probably won't get that bad, but given the UK's inspired leadership I suspect high six figures may be in the ball park.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Mar 18th, 2020 at 07:54:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
CDC, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, "Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) -- United States, February 12-March 16, 2020", 18 Mar
Data from cases reported from 49 states, the District of Columbia, and three U.S. territories (5) to CDC during February 12-March 16 were analyzed. Cases among persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and from Japan (including patients repatriated from cruise ships) were excluded. States and jurisdictions voluntarily reported data on laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 using previously developed data collection forms (6).
No data on serious underlying health conditions were available. Data on these cases are preliminary and are missing for some key characteristics of interest, including hospitalization status (1,514), ICU admission (2,253), death (2,001), and age (386). Because of these missing data, the percentages of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths (case-fatality percentages) were estimated as a range.
as is the custom at CDC
This report describes the current epidemiology of COVID-19 in the United States, using preliminary data. The findings in this report are subject to at least five limitations. First, data were missing for key variables of interest. Data on age and outcomes, including hospitalization, ICU admission, and death, were missing for 9%-53% of cases, which likely resulted in an underestimation of these outcomes. Second, further time for follow-up is needed to ascertain outcomes among active cases. Third, the initial approach to testing was to identify patients among those with travel histories or persons with more severe disease, and these data might overestimate the prevalence of severe disease. Fourth, data on other risk factors, including serious underlying health conditions that could increase risk for complications and severe illness, were unavailable at the time of this analysis. Finally, limited testing to date underscores the importance of ongoing surveillance of COVID-19 cases. Additional investigation will increase the understanding about persons who are at risk for severe illness and death from COVID-19 and inform clinical guidance and community-based mitigation measures.*
In the TL where I picked up the link, respondents are agreeing the chart pr0n proves COVID19 is a hoax. Most ignorant, litigious will not be saved by own MAGA dashboard. CSSE reporting 9,077 confirmed cases.
by Cat on Thu Mar 19th, 2020 at 02:15:06 AM EST
U.S. approves Abbott coronavirus test; company set to ship 150,000
The tests will be conducted on Abbott's m2000 platform, which is currently installed in 175 labs across the country.

"The majority of the systems are in hospital labs or academic center labs," Hackett said. "These are the places where you need them."

The FDA has been rushing to approve tests for the coronavirus on an emergency basis and has approved those made by Roche Holding AG (ROG.S) and Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO.N).

cascade likely, not assured
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that just over 30,000 coronavirus tests have been conducted by federal, state and local laboratories so far. With the expansion of testing comes a surge in confirmed cases of COVID-19.
FDA turns to Twitter to help track testing supply shortages
flow of information gap
by Cat on Thu Mar 19th, 2020 at 04:40:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Waiting for Bezos to demand fed aid when AMZN runs out of desperates to feed the grinder. That'll mark the social media tipping point into "progressive" outrage. Investigation of NEGLIGENCE in the Time of COVID19 will be demanded. tears, sippy cups

There Are Two Types of People Now: Online Shoppers and the People Who Serve Them
New cases of coronavirus at Amazon and FreshDirect warehouses show the human toll of shopping online.

America is now divided into two factions: Those who can afford to offload their risk of becoming infected with a deadly pandemic onto others, and those who serve people who are holed up in their homes, delivering them food, video game consoles, toilet paper, diapers, and scrapbook material at great risk to themselves.

French Amazon workers protest in coronavirus pushback
Unions have argued that Amazon delivers very few groceries and many other goods are not essential and should therefore consider closures.
archived  oh. no. OH, just NO.
by Cat on Thu Mar 19th, 2020 at 05:03:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fauci fu, "estimated in a range" of PI deaths, is only 0.1%, or "mostly dead".

by Cat on Fri Mar 20th, 2020 at 06:50:01 PM EST
Genome sequencing suggests undetected spread of coronavirus

If you don't do the testing, you don't know anything about the CoV-2 outbreak! Germany does the testing as requested by the WHO ... the States, Downing Street and het Catshuis of Mark Rutte DO NOT!

The relation deaths to confirmed infections in the Netherlands is quite extreme ... in Germany it would be much closer to the facts.

Experts: Rapid Testing Helps Explain Few German Virus Deaths | NY Times |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Fri Mar 20th, 2020 at 07:30:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Fri Mar 20th, 2020 at 07:44:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
twitterverse controversy regarding merits and heroic deeds of "America's Doctor". MAGA at eleven.

by Cat on Fri Mar 20th, 2020 at 08:29:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Mar 20th, 2020 at 09:11:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Was Coronavirus a Biowarfare Attack Against China?
Fort Detrich, blast from the past
by Cat on Sat Mar 21st, 2020 at 08:44:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Americans are about to get a crash course in the difference between Health Care Insurance and Health Care.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Mar 21st, 2020 at 06:36:45 PM EST
It will depend on the statistics on the performance of the US health care system and the other industrialized systems taken a few months (or years) from now. China is probably going to look pretty good.
by asdf on Sun Mar 22nd, 2020 at 05:55:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Posted here because it has nothing to do with Europe.  :-)

The governor of Mississippi said a couple of days ago that the power of prayer would be sufficient in his state. Mississippi is, of course, the state at the top of pretty much all of the "social problem" rankings.
During my first State of the State address, I shared Romans 12:12. I believe it gives each of us a powerful charge in these uncertain times: "Be joyful in hope, patient in affliction, faithful in prayer." That is what I will personally strive to do as we address this pandemic.

The governor of Colorado said today that we are under a "stay at home" policy. Essential business allowed to stay open include health care providers, bankers, grocers, child care facilitators and shelter operators. No word on enforcement regime. Conservatives are outraged.
Lawmakers angry over stay-at-home order want Douglas County to sever ties with Tri-Health, but Dougco commissioner says decision rests with health department

by asdf on Wed Mar 25th, 2020 at 11:41:32 PM EST
Following an AZ thread, I found an equally hilarious twitter thread stuffed with mind-boggled NJ residents who recently discovered that their gov had decreed every business an "essential business." Except golf courses.

I surmise ripening expectation amid states' leadership of Trump's announcement "15 Days to Slow the Spread" is concluding; also the ahh influence of Gov. Larry "mag-lev" Hogan, president of nga.org. Two weeks ago he boasted in every emergency presser that he and the 50 gov had consulted (by teleconf) with their leader Corona Czar VP Rev. Mr Pence at the WH as to how best to proceed.

Reading his latest OE in full it appeared to me that the cage doors of the MD zoo are open, too, but for the most part few dare tread outside their lanes. In any case, Larry has already detailed the landscape with  National Guard units, fussing with "free" meals and medical bivouac presumably better acquitted than Ebola Edition kit, for an inevitable SURGE "presumable" COVID19 infirm.

by Cat on Thu Mar 26th, 2020 at 12:44:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
MD confirmed: 423 (in two wks)
by Cat on Thu Mar 26th, 2020 at 12:58:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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