If I recall the hypothesis was that we were about to hit peak oil production, not that oil was in imminent danger of running out.

Obviously when prices rose more marginal fields and technologies became economic and thus we had the growth of fracking in North America.

So the peak has been postponed, but it doesn't mean the environmental damage is any less. In fact it gets greater the more extreme the extraction method.

We have also had massive growth in sustainable technologies which has helped to ameliorate the demand curve. Jerome has been a leader in this field.

With the cost of sustainable wind and solar energy continuing to decline it has rapidly become competitive against oil prices. Now if only we could reduce the subsidies to big oil and coal production there really would decline...

Index of Frank's Diaries

I don't remember much discussion about the price after the peak, more of how the price would rise as we approach the peak. And I think it is fair to claim that the peak was indeed passed in conventional oil. All areas in Frank' picture except North America are stable or declining.

Fracking did change the picture, but as far as I understand it, it is a poor source of energy with low EROI, even ignoring the damage it causes. I suspect it will be up there with Soviet ideas about turning around rivers among examples of late imperial hubris.

I have some vague recollection of whale oil (or was it whale bone?) having wild swings in price after the peak. So that would fit, if I remember it correctly.

Also it will be interesting to see how those small, flexible fracking companies recover from bankruptcy. One expects the US government to bail them out as usual...

However, resource exhaustion is - traditionally, historically - a driver of societal and civilizational collapse. What we need is something new : a renouncement, a voluntary choice of harder options, a rapid transition to a sustainable future. That would be a sign of maturity... I keep hoping.

The stone age didn't end for lack of stones.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II}