Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Test Test Test

by Frank Schnittger Fri May 15th, 2020 at 12:14:18 PM EST

The data above (sorted by total deaths per country) is taken from Worldometer with the exception of two calculated column (in red) of confirmed case mortality rates (deaths/confirmed cases) and % positive tests (confirmed cases/tests) which I have added to illustrate the degree of testing which is happening in each country. Obviously the more widespread and intensive the testing regime, the lower the % positive rate you are going to get. Conversely, countries which only test the most obvious cases, usually on admission to hospital, will return a much higher % positive rate.


With the world average coming in at 8.36% for % positive tests (confirmed cases/tests), any countries below that are testing more intensively than average, and those above, less so. The outliers for low levels of testing are Ecuador, Mexico and Brazil. Mexico and Brazil are seeing a massive spike in deaths, while Ecuador, mysteriously, is seeing hardly any new cases or deaths at all. Perhaps their rate of testing is so low they are not recording many new illnesses or deaths as Covid-19 related.

Surprisingly, the USA and many of the worst hit countries in Europe are testing less intensively than the world average, perhaps because of political disorganisation, or because their health systems have been overwhelmed. Some may be pursuing a de facto if unacknowledged "herd immunity" strategy, in which case testing for immunity is more important than testing for the disease.

Of the hardest hit countries, only Italy, Canada, Germany, India, Russia, Portugal and Romania are testing more intensively than the world average, not all renowned for the quality of their health services. Perhaps we need to adjust some of the preconceptions the mainstream media would have us have of them.

Of course if you measure the testing regime by tests per million population, a different pattern emerges, but that reflects unfairly on countries with small or non-existent outbreaks, where testing is much less necessary. The level of testing required is proportionate to the size of the outbreak in each country, and on that measure - % of tests results that are positive - many of the worst hit countries come out rather badly.

It looks like the WHO mandated strategy of test, test, test, followed by contact tracing and quarantine is being vindicated the world over. That is if you really are trying to contain the outbreak. Some countries - the UK, Netherlands - aren't even bothering to report the number of recoveries from the disease, which any reasonable observer would regard as perhaps the most important metric of all.

Why are death rates  rates so different in different countries, ranging from 16.4% of those testing positive in Belgium to 2.6% in neighbouring Luxembourg? Again testing rates may be a factor, with Belgium's 53,839 tests per million little more than half the Luxembourg rate of 94,021 per million population. But that can only explain part of the variation; other factors include the degree to which a health service has been overrun, and the stage the pandemic has reached. New deaths have been declining in most European countries for some time.


Table II: Sorted by deaths/million

Sorting the data by deaths/million (Table II above) gives some idea of how hard, in relative terms, different countries have been hit, with European countries to the fore, but with the USA, Brazil, and Mexico catching up fast (Table III) below. Russia is to the fore in having large numbers of new cases, but so far this has not been reflected in the mortality figures, with their confirmed case mortality rate a remarkably low 0.9%. That figure has habit of trending upwards, though, as the Pandemic progresses, and Russia appears to be in the early stages of what will end up being one of the largest outbreaks in the world.


Table III: In order of new deaths

Finally, we must note that there have been a lot of problems with false negatives in testing:

Research this week raised new questions about tests that are widely used to diagnose Covid-19, including the Abbott Laboratories test used by the White House, suggesting that false negative results may be fairly common.

The Abbott test, which is used for rapid diagnoses, could miss between one-third and half of positive cases, according to a New York University study that hasn't been reviewed by other scientists. (Abbott disputes the findings.) A separate, peer-reviewed study from Johns Hopkins researchers looked more broadly at a widely used group of diagnostics for current infections, called polymerase chain reaction tests. It found that false negatives were common when the tests were performed early in infection and that patients are likely to get the most accurate results when tested just a few days into having symptoms.

From a Bloomberg e-mail


So the numbers we are seeing above may be a gross under-estimate, even where widespread testing has taken place. It looks like this pandemic is going to be with us for some time yet, especially as it is only beginning to take hold in many third world countries with less comprehensive health care systems and perhaps more immunocompromised people.

Covid-19's characteristic of being asymptomatic for a period in all infections, and asymptomatic for the entire infection in some cases has proved to be a very effective transmission strategy that no testing strategy can overcome, unless we were to test large parts of the population on a regular basis, something no country has attempted.

Sifting through the data can reveal some important patterns and point to more effective management strategies, but in the absence of an effective vaccine and treatment options may may well have to accept some level of ongoing infections and deaths for some time to come.

Display:
One comment I have read suggests that much of the testing in the USA may not be targetted at the most high risk groups, but at those who can afford to pay for them. If that is the case, the disease may be much more prevalent in the USA, particularly in poorer or densely populated areas than the overall test results indicate - on top of the high rate of false negatives from the Abbott test, in particular. I have also seen estimates for false negatives from the standard PCR tests of 30%.

All in all, even with declining death rates in most developed countries, it is doubtful whether the disease has been effectively controlled. Countries such as the US and UK, which are currently beginning to re-open their economies even as their pandemics are near their peak may well come to regret their decisions. The short-term economic costs of lock-down may be high, but the ongoing costs of continuing high rates of infection and death could be much higher again. Future historians may well point to this pandemic as signalling the end of "western" dominance of the world economy and politics.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 12:48:55 PM EST
Everything here is "pay as you go" unless the Ueberklass can somehow profit from the buyer's going into debt.
by rifek on Sun May 17th, 2020 at 05:59:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some Tory politicians in the UK have expressed shock that Ireland is not reciprocating the UK decision of not requiring people travelling from Ireland to Britain to go into quarantine. Despite the Common Travel Area, Ireland will continue to require all incoming travellers to quarantine for 2 weeks with some exceptions for air crews and travellers from N. Ireland only.

N. Ireland has just announced a lockdown exit strategy very similar to that of Ireland, and quite different to Boris Johnson's "stay alert" strategy.

With the British government now finally, belatedly, and reluctantly also confirming that Brexit will require customs control posts at N. Ireland ports for all trade from Britain and non-EU countries, N. Ireland's position as more closely allied to Ireland in economic and epidemiological terms is becoming increasingly obvious.

The crazier British policy gets - on Brexit, Covid-19, and trade relations with the rest of the world, the more N. Ireland's objective interests will align with the Republic. This is not even all that controversial in unionist circles.

British government attempts to whip up sectarian tensions over the citing of an EU office in Belfast to oversee customs controls have met with a muted response. Belfast has always had a US consulate, more recently a Chinese one, and the EU has also maintained an information office there.

Unionists know that if they are to continue to receive EU funds for the peace process and border areas, together with full access to the Customs Union and Single Market, some EU presence in Belfast is inevitable, and many will welcome it.

In response to a recent court case every person born in Northern Ireland will also be regarded as a European Union citizen for immigration purposes, following a significant climbdown by the British Home Office. An EU Consulate to represent their interests will therefore be required in any case.

Some unionists are also becoming wise to Tory attempts to whip up sectarian tensions as part of their Brexit  negotiating strategy with the EU. Reprehensible as that strategy is, it will buy Britain no favours from Ireland or the EU. Cooperating on N. Ireland customs posts and a Belfast EU office is not going to be allowed to become a negotiating chip in Britain's attempts to extract a more favourable trade deal from the EU.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 01:18:45 PM EST
Birth tourism to Northern Ireland from GB if the rule holds?

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 07:42:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Although the Covid-19 death rates/million population has been high in Ireland, at 305, around 10th. place in Europe, Ireland has had no Excess deaths due to Covid-19 to date. In other words the death rate from all causes is roughly the same as in previous years. This is in sharp contrast to England, which has currently got the highest excess death rates in Europe. This is a very good reason for restricting travel from England, in particular, and requiring a 14 day quarantine in almost all cases.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 02:12:20 PM EST
With the world average coming in at 8.36% for % positive tests (confirmed cases/tests)

Data set is truly worthless to make any comparison between nations. Having followed closely the Dutch, Belgians, Germans, British and Washington DC policy it is expected that the "herd immunity" states have a similar awful death count and a poor testing record. Starting late, being unprepared, not only were these states behind the curve making it difficult to catch up with PPE: hospitals overwhelmed and not ready to start tests. In all these countries the frontline doctors and nurses paid the ultimate price. Once the outbreak is out of control (month of March) the death count will be insurmountable. Other states who were prepared, only needed to do containment in the primary clusters and therefore have a low number of tests.

Deaths /1M and Tests/1M
Belgium (773-56) - Dutch (329-17) - UK (501-35) - USA (263-32) - Germany (95-38). Both for the Dutch and the USA the death count is underrated. Should be adjusted for the deaths at home and in the nursing homes. The Dutch number will be near 500 deaths /M. The US were fortunate the governors of Blue States were firm on the lockdown, therefore transmission to the rural areas (Red States) was limited ... up till now.

The South-East Asia nations have a quite remarkable testing regime and a policy of early containment and tracking of infection spread. These nations were well prepared, not because they had more lead-time, but they were well prepared due to the earlier SARS Outbreak in 2003. The combined states of Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong have a combined total of ...

Countries     Deaths  Cases/1M  Deaths/1M  Tests/1K  Pop.M
Japan          697      127         6         1.8    126.5
HK               4      141         0.5      22.5      7.5
Singapore       21     4601         4        38.4      5.8
South Korea    260      215         5        14.2     51.2
Taiwan           7       18         0.3       2.9     23.8
Thailand        56       43         0,8       4.1     69.8

Totals
Population 285 million
Number of deaths  1045

In comparison USA - UAE

States   Deaths  Cases/1M  Deaths/1M  Tests/1K  Pop.M    
NY       27,426    18,151    1,410      67.0    19.5
NJ        9,946    16,216    1,120      50.8     8.9
CT        3,219     9,947      903      41.9     3.6  
MT        5,482    48,888      795      61.6     6.9
DC          368     9,736      521      48.7     0.7
....
CA        3,052     1,897       77      27.9    39.5
---
UAE         210     2,211       21     158.1     9.9 [For comparison only]

by Oui on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 04:21:29 PM EST
Data set is truly worthless to make any comparison between nations.

Quite: each country has different criteria for compiling the numbers, starting with where they get the numbers from.

In addition, there are in some places political pressures to minimize the C-19 death rates. In Russia, Moscow authorities admitted that up to 60% of people who died while having tested positive had another cause of death than C-19 (like heart attack, pulmonary failure...) reported on death certificates. China has reported 82K infected people, but recent leaks tend to indicate the figure may be closer to 640K; also, the thousand of people retrieving urns with ashes of their deceased relatives when the lockdown was lifted in Wuhan. It's tempting: don't count the COVID-19 deaths and your numbers won't look so bad.

by Bernard on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 08:52:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A lot of data has been shared on a daily basis ... hundreds of publications to track the virus to new clusters across the globe SE Asia to US West Coast and Europe to the New England States. Only the bubble of Washington DC was impermeable to scientific facts. White House asleep behind the wheel.

Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study | The Lancet - Jan. 31, 2020 |

Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.

My recent post - Lineage: Asia » West Coast; Europe » NY

In China there was a clamp down on media and doctors sharing information about the endemic ... however contact between scientists was allowed until US politicians came forward with conspiracy theories, misinformation and threats of lawsuits and economic sanctions. Bullying by Trump and WH advisors ...

by Oui on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 09:45:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard on Sun May 17th, 2020 at 03:19:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
End game? Not quite ... the ace in his sleeve. See also the recent military appointments to oversee the development of vaccines.  A whole army of volunteers for the first trials .. we've seen this before during the fifties with CIA truth serums and sending the soldiers into battle after the atom bomb has detonated. Locked areas in Nevada, although the atomic explosions could be seen. The inhabitants of the Bikini Atoll were less fortunate ...

The Democrats are hapless and hopeless, doesn't bode well for the fall Presidential Election ... too often I hear and see the three Obama appointees Hillary Clinton - Susan Rice - Samantha Power - R2P echec.

US and UK lead push against global patent pool for Covid-19 drugs | The Guardian |

Crisis-Critical Intellectual Property: Findings from the COVID-19 Pandemic | Centre for Technology Management |
The Medicines Patent Pool and Unitaid respond to access efforts for COVID-19 treatments and technologies

The United States and 5-Eyes allies scouring the Internet to steal data ...

by Oui on Sun May 17th, 2020 at 06:01:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Sun May 17th, 2020 at 10:42:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I accept the data is very noisy and inconsistent with different standards and systems for recording deaths and infections in different countries. In Ireland all deaths in hospitals, nursing homes and the general community due to Covid-19, in the opinion of the doctor, are counted even in the absence of a positive test. Sometimes deaths have been "uncounted" where subsequent tests were negative and another cause of death was found.

As a result, I think our numbers are fairly accurate, and currently stand at c. 1,500. However overall death figures reveal there are no "excess deaths" compared to previous years, so it seems that Covid deaths have simply displaced deaths from other causes. This is not as improbable as it sounds, because the median age of the deceased has been 84, average 82, and the lockdown could also have reduced deaths from flu and other communicable diseases.

The Russian death figures seem v. suspicious given the huge no. of infections, but there have also been reports of pressure on US doctors not to report deaths as Covid unless confirmed by test, and tests not being ordered for the deceased. The Chinese have been reported as not counting asymptomatic cases, and testing has been very sparse in many countries.

So yes, extreme caution in interpreting the results is required. I still think the patterns are interesting and often highlight the data gathering deficiencies noted above. There are so many people involved in this it is difficult for all but the most authoritarian of governments to prevent the truth leaking out, sooner or later. Even the Brits were shamed into including nursing home deaths having ignored them for a long time. Poor data is often better than no data at all.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 11:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Sat May 16th, 2020 at 04:27:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 02:59:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump has for him that his father lived up to the age of 93, but genetics is just about the only thing in his favor.

There must be several office pools about which septuagenarian will keel over before Election Day.

by Bernard on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 06:23:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On the other hand, his grandfather died (in 1918) of a mere flu.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 07:56:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...right after saying: It's just a flu!
by Bernard on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 08:32:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

never. gets. old.

by Cat on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 05:16:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Leading the world from the alternate Universe of Fox News, Tucker Carlson, party loyalists and hosts Talk Radio USA. If you don't belief what Trump advocates, we have some militia as back-up to do the convincing. After the chloroquine drug promo and injecting Clorox/Lysol ... another gem from the chief. The shipwreck in the making, pushing for a speedy voyage to New York - 1912.

Trump: Without Coronavirus Testing 'We Would Have Very Few Cases,' Here Is The Reaction | Forbes |

In a speech at Owens and Minor, a medical supply distributor located in Allentown, PA, President Donald Trump wondered whether testing for Covid-19 coronavirus is "overrated." He then proceeded to say, "And don't forget, we have more cases than anybody in the world. But why? Because we do more testing."

Next, he clarified: "When you test, you have a case. When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing, we would have very few cases."

Whoa, is that how it works? That would change everything. The sound that you are hearing might be that of minds blown around the country. Perhaps, it's sort of like when you first heard that Santa Claus is not the one who delivered those presents to your living room. Although you knew that the chimney in your house led to the furnace, it took a little time for you to put two-and-two together.

The French Renegade Scientist Behind Chloroquine, Donald Trump's Miracle Coronavirus Cure | Esquire |

by Oui on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 04:44:50 PM EST
Interesting compilation about testing and contact tracing from Tomas Pueyo. Spoiler alert: smartphone apps are quite worthless.
by Bernard on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 08:37:58 PM EST
There was a lot of hype about various apps in development, debate about whether location data would centralised or stored locally on phones, and concerns about the accuracy of distance measurement to help protect privacy. Also, something like 60% of people had to install them for them to be effective.

Much less hype about them now, and no plans to go live that I have heard. I don't think preliminary testing has been positive, and I suspect public health authorities have gone cold on the idea.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 15th, 2020 at 11:02:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How will Europe's coronavirus contacttracing apps work across borders?

... given Ireland's decision to opt for a decentralized app architecture for its national app. Over the land border in Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K., the national app would presumably be the centralized system that's being devised by the U.K.'s NHSX. And the NHSX's CEO has admitted this technical division presents a specific challenge for the NHS COVID-19 app.

by Oui on Sat May 16th, 2020 at 02:10:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Mon May 18th, 2020 at 12:56:08 AM EST
Ryanair shares SURGE on reduced "]cash burn["], optimistic outlook
O'Leary said cash burn is now around 10-15 million euros per week when the cost of unneeded fuel hedges are excluded, which he described as "almost zero."

Ryanair reported a cash balance of 4.1 billion euros, including 600 million pounds raised under Britain's Covid Corporate Financing Facility.

pesky labor costs
O'Leary reiterated plans to cut at least 3,250 jobs and pay cuts of up to 20%, though he said both could be reversed in the coming years as Boeing begins to deliver dozens of 737 MAX jets per year - starting with 20-30 by summer 2021.

O'Leary said the airline would first look at the possible closure of loss-making bases in Britain, Germany and Spain.

Of "furloughs", job-retention, kurzarbeit, and unions
"We need pay cuts. We need job losses, we need lower airport costs if we are going to right-size the business," he said.
by Cat on Mon May 18th, 2020 at 10:02:37 PM EST
Fortunately for Ryanair, those Boeing 737 Max jet deliveries have been long delayed...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 12:04:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 05:18:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Sweden, testing numbers has reflected the number of tests done rather than the number of ill since March 12th when the strategy was shifted from contact tracing and isolation to flattening the curve (of ill requiring hospital care) and raising the bar (of ICU beds). Because there was a lack of everything, testing was thus reserved for patients arriving to the hospital and staff (who had symtoms or who had been exposed). Testing is being scaled up, which will likely lead to a higher number of positive tests, but it won't mean much in terms of how the illness is spreading.

Increasing ICU beds has been very succesfull, which means that patients needing ICU treatment for Covid-19 is a good measurement, as is patients at hospital for Covd-19 in general. Basically everything that can be postponed has been postponed, the government has promised to pick up the tab and the counties has shifted the hospitals into focusing on Covid-19.

Also Swedish death statistics are good and numbers for the dead in Covid-19 match well with excess death. Deaths, ICU beds used for Covid-19 and patients in hospital for Covid-19 for Sweden can all be found on c19.se. Link goes to the page in english, but i notice IVA has been left untranslated. IVA is ICU. I recomend the logarithmic view and hovering over the datapoints to get the numbers by day.

A good thing is that (unless yesterdays slight increase is the start of a new trend), deaths , ICU beds and patients in hospital all seems to have peaked in late April. With a timelag for symtoms to manifest and the illness to proceed until death, this would mean that the strategy implemeted in late March was succesfull in breaking the spread and maximum new infected per day was in late March. With Sweden's death rates and a strategy that looks way more lenient then most, that is a counterintuitive conclusion but it still looks that way.

Possible other reasons for the high death rate includes a large undetected early spread (possibly due to the February break), a late start with the strategy, factors regarding nursing homes in Stockholm (Stockholm has 22% of the population and 50% of the deaths in Covid-19), but there is as far as I know not much in way of studies yet. Lots of opinions though.

by fjallstrom on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 09:08:02 AM EST

BBC Hardtalk - Anders Tegnell - Sweden's chief epidemiologist

Common ground: don't do the testing while the caretakers and new patients in nursing homes are hosts to SARS CoV-2. Indeed, culling the elderly!

Coronavirus: Nearly 10,000 deaths in care homes in England and Wales

Willful neglect 🥵

Don't start the investigation by recessed Lower House while we're in the midst of a war to battle the virus.

Trump threatens to pull out of WHO over 'failed response' to pandemic - 30-day ultimatum

by Oui on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 11:26:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The issues with the elderly and care homes are similar in Ireland, with 63% of all deaths in residential institutions.  Median age of death has been 84, but people over 65 are rarely sent to ICU's. The view seems to be they are less likely to benefit from the invasive and stressful procedures employed there. Sweden and Ireland's death rates were similar a few weeks back but Sweden has trended upwards since, suggesting that Ireland's stricter lockdown had some marginal benefit.

In general, European death rates have been trending down for quite a while, with the pandemic hot spots moving to the USA, and now to Brazil, Russia, India, and Latin America. I suspect the pandemic will rage havoc in third world countries for possibly many years even as the first world becomes relatively free. Suppression, in the absence of a vaccine, just doesn't look to be a realistic strategy for densely populated, poverty stricken areas.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 12:21:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard on Sat May 30th, 2020 at 02:16:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two plots I'd like to see are excess deaths compared to Covid deaths and positive tests compared to total tests over time. The FT did excess deaths, but is apparently above linking to sources/raw data. If the second ratio is stable over a period you could deduce that you are looking at a representative sample of the sub set of the population that you subject to tests. The first one should at least flag totally made up numbers. It is harder to hide a corpse than to invent a reason why it is there after all.

Absent good data I fall back to my priors: This is a problem that can only be solved by central planning in the medium term. Tourism is dead, restaurants are dead, travel is limited. Even more so than in the Great Depression the government unilaterally decides which business gets to stay a business and which closes. Who gets to work in which jobs and who doesn't. And most importantly who gets to keep or expand their social economic status and who doesn't. And here is the catch, vastly more than the nationalism, or "populism" that is usually blamed for the EU's ills. One of the core design principles of the EU is as a kind of Holy Alliance against socialism and for the protection of certain class interests that would feel threatened by any kind of rational planning. So we can't really do anything on the EU level since one nutty Austrian or Dutch can blow it up. And conversely the EU institutions are easily weaponized to rip pieces out of the corpse of Italy once the dust has settled. Like St. Sebastian, closer of Balkan routes of Austria is preening for having muddled through the prologue of the pandemic and Greater Depression (Bigly Depression? The Greatest Depression?) and vociferously objecting to any unconditional support for other European countries. Yet something like half the Austrian working class lives in those countries, so good luck with the second wave.
I apologize for getting a bit rumbly.

by generic on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 06:18:03 PM EST
Coronavirus: How to Do Testing and Contact Tracing - Tomas Pueyo - Medium
As you can see, Italy has been consistently ramping up their number of daily tests, but they're still not enough to know the extent of the situation. However, with this graph, they can start having a sense of when they will cross that threshold. If cases keep going down while tests keep going up, they might cross in a few weeks.

by generic on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 07:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Since the scales of the red and green curve are different, what is the red area supposed to signify?

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 09:05:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Coronavirus: How to Do Testing and Contact Tracing - Tomas Pueyo - Medium
In this graph, daily new cases are the red line and daily new tests are the green line. They have been scaled, so that they can be compared. As we just saw above, the experience of countries that controlled the epidemic indicates we should aim for at least 3% of positives, which means you want ~33 times more tests than cases. So the tests axis on the right is ~33x bigger than the cases axis on the left. With that you can easily see when you have enough tests.
by generic on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 09:12:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
States accused of fudging or bungling COVID-19 testing data
sample: TX, GA, VA, VT, FL
spec: RU, BR
omitted: CN, IT, FR, UK, DE, KR, JP
The risk is that politicians, business owners and ordinary Americans who are making decisions about lockdowns, reopenings and other day-to-day matters could be left with the impression that the virus is UNDER more CONTROL than it actually is.

In Virginia, Texas and Vermont, for example, officials said they have been combining the results of viral tests, which show an active infection, with antibody tests, which show a past infection. Public health experts say that can make for impressive-looking testing totals but does not give a true picture of how the virus is spreading. ...

archived
Sat Feb 22nd, 2020 control
Tue Mar 3rd, 2020 viral load, export restrictions

U.S. mulls paying companies, tax breaks to pull supply chains from China

On Thursday [14 May], Trump signed an executive order  [EO 13922] that gave a U.S. overseas investment agency [IDFC, BUILD Act 2018] new powers to help manufacturers in the United States. The goal, Trump said, is to "produce everything America needs for ourselves and then export to the world, and that includes medicines."
[...]
Both Republicans and Democrats are crafting bills to decrease U.S. reliance on China-made products, which accounted for some 18% of overall imports in 2019. [...] "The whole subject of supply chains and integrity of supply chains... does have a greater place in members' minds," Representative Mac Thornberry, the top Republican on the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, told reporters May 7.

The medical supply chain and defense-related goods are top of the list.

"Coronavirus has been a painful wakeup call that we are too reliant on nations like China for critical medical supplies," said U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham in a press release on Friday. He is expected to issue a new bill this week.

archived Wed Feb 19th, 2020
Europe braces for coronavirus-induced drug shortages
Who Supplies America's Drugs?


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed May 20th, 2020 at 04:29:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gilli Noble‎ to Staying in the EU is best for Britain

This week in Tory...

  1. Accidentally made it illegal to drive to Wales.

  2. Made it easier to see other people's parents than your own.

  3. Issued new advice that was officially ignored by Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the councils of Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle.

  4. Admitted there WOULD be a border down the Irish Sea, after a year claiming there wouldn't.

  5. Said it is OK for a child-minder to come into contact with your kids, as long as you "open a window".

  6. Published advice that you can car-share, as long as the driver "doesn't look left".

  7. Announced £2bn investment, so we could use public transport again.

  8. Told us it is our "civic duty" to avoid using public transport.

  9. Announced the PM would make a speech on Sunday, because it had to be implemented on Monday.

  10. Then, when challenged, said they meant Wednesday.

  11. Then said we must go to work.

  12. Then said we must not travel to work.

  13. Then said it was all explained in the published guidelines.

  14. Then had it pointed out to them in Parliament that they had not published guidelines.

  15. Blamed the public for not understanding the new rules.

  16. Then went on TV to explain the rules, got them wrong, and had to be corrected by Piers Morgan.

  17. Then went to parliament to explain the rules, STILL got them wrong, and had to be corrected by the opposition.

  18. Said we should wear facemasks.

  19. Then said we shouldn't wear facemasks.

  20. Then said - again - we should wear facemasks.

  21. Clapped for NHS workers.

  22. Then introduced a 55% increase in the fee foreign staff pay to work for the NHS.

  23. Announced quarantine for new arrivals, a mere 73 days after being officially advised to quarantine new arrivals.

  24. Announced they had "only just started" recruiting people to do track and trace, a mere 110 days after being officially advised to urgently do track and trace.

  25. Issued a plan to open schools, which teachers said was unsafe.

  26. Then said doctors were brave, but teachers weren't.

  27. Then had to watch as doctors said the teachers were right, and it wasn't safe to open schools.

  28. Then announced tests for kids but not for teachers.

  29. Then had to have it explained on live TV that infected teachers can still infect kids.

  30. Scored 0% in a French poll of which government was doing best for its people.

  31. Dropped 45 net approval points in UK opinion polling.🔷

Courtesy of PMP News

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 07:45:03 PM EST
by Bernard on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 08:45:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Tue May 19th, 2020 at 09:08:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Irish company praised by EU for developing rapid coronavirus test
Hibergene Diagnostics secures EU approval to market 30-minute test across Europe

The European Commission has hailed the success of Irish company Hibergene Diagnostics in developing a 30-minute test to determine if people have coronavirus.

Hibergene tapped the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation fund for €930,000 to finance its research after its Chinese distributor approached it for help as the virus spread in Wuhan at the start of the year.

The Dublin company was among 18 coronavirus-related projects to win backing when the EU fund put out a special call for ideas to tackle the rapidly spreading pandemic in January. And it is the first to deliver results, with the Irish company securing EU approval on Wednesday to market its new test across Europe.

First batches of the test are now being shipped to Russia and other markets across Europe and the Middle East.

Its test - HG nCoV19 - avoids the need for scarce reagents and can be completed in a fraction of the time required by the big centralised laboratories that have been responsible for testing until now.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 21st, 2020 at 03:17:53 PM EST


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