Other possible Senate pickups include North Carolina where first term incumbent Republican Tom Tilis is trailing challenger Cal Cunningham by around a point, Georgia, where both Senate seats are being contested, South Carolina, Iowa and Montana. In Georgia incumbent Republican Davis Perdue is pretty much  tied with Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff. In South Carolina Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham is facing and unexpectedly strong challenge from Democrat Jamie Harrison. The latest poll, July 30 - August 3 by Quinnipiac University has them tied at 44% each. Analysts rate the race either toss up or lean Republican.

In Iowa the most recent poll by PPP, August 13-14, shows Democratic challenger Theresa
Greenfield leading incumbent Republican Joni Ernst 48% to 45% and all polling since July 1 shows the race very close. And in Montana former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock was leading in the polls until mid July but  Republican Steve Danes has pulled ahead since.

A lot depends on turnout for the election and what, if any, chaos the current USPS disruption by Trump's newly appointed Postmaster General Louis DeJoy has and in which direction. All in all the Democrats have a reasonable chance to take the Senate if they win the Presidency, especially if they win the Presidency by a significant margin. Even if Trump wins re-election by a squeaker it is still possible, though less likely, that the Democrats could still take the Senate. In that case they would be a vital check on Trump's judicial appointees and, to a lesser extent, on Trump's unconstitutional behavior.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

One interesting article on how in New York a number of candidates ran as a group, a leftwing slate:

How New York City's Democratic Socialists Swept the Competition - The American Prospect

Forrest's campaign prioritized relationship-building and organizing over winning support from existing power brokers. Once the slate had developed a common platform, the organizing came naturally. "People had way bigger buy-in than just supporting me as an individual," said Forrest. "We got buy-in through the issues."

THE WORKING FAMILIES PARTY has been winning campaigns in New York since the late 1990s, and is a more sophisticated operation, with a significant number of highly qualified paid staff. This storehouse of talent and knowledge was critical to many of the victories, especially Bowman's, who faced an avalanche of outside spending. The DSA's organizing operation, on the other hand, thrived due to motivated volunteers drawn to the agenda of its endorsed candidates.

According to a Pew 2020 voter projection (no link) whites will be ~68% of the electorate.  Since 2000 Republican need whites to be at least 72% to win.

IF these hold Trump and the GOP in general is in deep, deep, trouble.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

Majority of voters don't see either Trump, Biden as mentally fit to be president: poll

A CNBC-Change Research national poll found that 55 percent of voters across the country felt Trump was mentally unfit, while 52 percent felt Biden was unfit.

Assuming that we have two large groups that feel only one is mentally fit, and a very, very small one that feels both mentally fit (like the group in exit polls who liked both candidates in 2016), and assuming that voters want to support the candidate they feel is mentally fit then we have:

45% supports Trump and feels he is mentally fit
48% supports Biden and feels he is mentally fit
7% neither is not mentally fit

Which would mean that how the voters split, who feel neither candidate is mentally fit for being president, could very well decide the election. I think that is a new situation. Remember, US elections used to be about which candidate was more liked.

Supreme Court justice Louis Brandeis called states "the laboratories of democracy." Often overlooked, but crucially important in the era of semipermanent Washington gridlock, state legislatures are where some of the biggest policy decisions are made that impact our everyday lives. Decisions on issues such as public school funding, drinking water standards, and police accountability are made in our state capitols.

For Arizona the lowest result came from Gravis +2. Gravis has been called the worst polling organization in America. It is a marketing firm that does polling. It has been speculated that it was hired specifically to put out a low number for Biden. Without Gravis the number for Arizona would be Biden +7.3. The rest of the polling organizations appear to be legitimate, but note that 538 has not banned Gravis. Make of it what you
will.

For Florida Trafalgar has Trump +3, the worst result for Biden. But Trafalgar has not been banned by 538, so I will leave it in.

Obviously Florida is the closest, but Biden has many paths to victory without Florida, while Trump cannot say the same. Go Bloomberg! He is spending $100 million in the Florida media market to target various specific ethnic groups such as Puerto Rican immigrants, who can vote immediately, Mexicans, Haitians and other groups that have eligible voters. His money will strain Trump's budget if he is to counter.

After that Pennsylvania is the closest. If Biden takes Pennsylvania he has the election 99 times out of 100. Buckle up!

 

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

This indicates to me that this election is not about relatively volatile things like perceptions of campaign performance, performance in office, national conventions, policy platforms, but about something semi-permanent: Tribal identification. People don't change their tribal identification much, so this election is about maximising the turnout of your tribe, not wooing the undecideds.

But something has been changing in the battleground states. Whereas Hillary was gradually sliding in the polls in these states as the election neared, and 42 days before polling day, she was only up 1.3% in those states. Biden, by way of contrast has held steady, and is now up 4.1% in those states; a net improvement on Hillary's performance of 2.8%, 42 days out from election day. This is in stark contrast to July/August, when Biden was doing worse than Hillary in the battleground states at that stage.

Even Florida has consistently had a 60% chance of a Biden Victory. Of course a few Biden blunders or a poor performance in the debates could still change things, but barring a Biden melt-down, vast and successful voter suppression by Trump, or outright counting fraud, this election is Biden's to lose.

Index of Frank's Diaries

* 'a lot' = > 3% more of likely women voters.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

Wealthy Republicans do it too. Poor Republicans would, if they paid income tax. They all hate government.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II}

And this is all BEFORE we get to the handling of COVID, the deaths and the economic disruption caused by Trump's incompetence and self absorption. This debate video should be a gift that keeps giving for the Biden campaign. Run a clip of Trump trying to talk over Chris Wallace, the moderator. Note that we HAVE HAD dignified governments and presidents in the past. Ask if you, the voter, want a return to dignity and competence or four more years of Trumian chaos.

Once again Trump put on vivid display his contempt for the norms of the US process of conducting elections. He is running against the whole electoral process. Now the Biden campaign should insist that any future debates have the candidates in glass booths and that the moderator is required to mute the microphone of the candidate who is NOT supposed to be speaking. Level the playing field.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

538/ABC poll found:

Debate watchers were pretty decisive in their verdict of last night's performances: Only about one-third said Trump's performance was "somewhat good" or "very good," and 50 percent said it was "very poor."

But

Most respondents started out firmly in either Biden or Trump's camp, and the debate didn't change that: In fact, very few people changed their minds at all about how likely they were to vote for each candidate.

Trump desperately needed to change the sitz im leben of the 2020 elections, not only for himself but for the Republican Party.  He didn't.  Every single one of the Cook Political Report's - a highly touted US political analyst group - rating changes have been in favor of the Democrats.  The most recent example was both Iowa and Ohio deemed Toss Up from Solid Republican earlier in the year.

While there's no evidence Trump will eke out a win in 2020 there wasn't any evidence Trump was going to win in 2016.  Countering a surprise is the fact the polling average on Oct. 1 2016 had Clinton with 43.5% and Trump with 40.3% while today Biden leads 50.5% to 42.9%. Trump managed, with some help from the FBI, to close the gap over the month, pulled out an additional 2 million votes over Romney's 2012 total, and had ~80,000 voters in the right places in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  He'll have to do something like this year and without a key 2016 voting block: suburban white women, who deserted the GOP in 2018.

Can Trump get re-elected.  Yes, there's no Law of the Universe saying nay.  Is it likely he'll be re-elected?  With what we now as of 30 Sept. 2020: no.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

Cook Political Report just moved Iowa and Ohio to Toss-Up from Likely Republican earlier in the year.

Things are so bad for the Republicans Texas(!) and Georgia(!!) are polling within the MOE.

Trump tanked in the first "debate" (sic)

And now the whole rotten crew has come down with Covid.

Trump's re-election looking less likely as Nov 3 draws near.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre