Mon Sep 7th, 2020 at 02:45:44 AM EST
As of Sept. 7, Sunday of the Labor Day Weekend some things have clarified a bit. The Trump campaign has pulled its TV adverts in Arizona and Biden is up on Trump there by 9 points. Three solid polls in Wisconsin show Biden up by 7+ points. Minnesota seems likely to hold for the Democrats. Pennsylvania is the biggest weakness for Biden in the 'Blue Wall', with Michigan next. Democrats hold the west coast, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado and Hawaii by reasonable margins. And Democrats hold the east coast north of Virginia up to Maine.
Frontpaged with minor edit - Frank Schnittger
In addition to Pennsylvania and Michigan other states in play include Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Texas. Trump has the rest of the south and the mid west from Oklahoma to North Dakota and over to Montana, plus Alaska.
If we give Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas to Trump and if Trump takes Pennsylvania Biden would still win with 271 votes if he gets all of the votes in Maine and one vote in Nebraska, or if he lost one vote in Maine and got two in Nebraska. That would be a squeaker.
If Trump also takes Michigan Biden loses. But if Biden wins Florida he wins even if Trump takes Michigan and Pennsylvania. And Florida is a real toss up right now, as is North Carolina. But if Biden holds Pennsylvania he can afford to lose Florida and Michigan. If Trump takes Florida but loses North Carolina Biden would have to have all of the votes from Maine and two votes from Nebraska to reach 271 - really a squeaker.
The tradition has been that US election campaigns start in earnest after Labor Day. A lot can happen between Sept. 9 and Nov. 3. With the latest Trump fiasco over his contempt for those who serve in the military he is now under water with the military and a majority of current and former military intend to vote for Biden. While I am far from certain I believe Biden is more likely to win in November. I cannot wish for a Trump victory to teach the Democrats a lesson, as I am very uncertain if the Republic will still stand after a second Trump term.
For those who want to play with various combinations of states to get to 271 try Teagan Goddard's Electoral Vote Map.