Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

The US Election as of Labor Day

by ARGeezer Mon Sep 7th, 2020 at 02:45:44 AM EST

As of Sept. 7, Sunday of the Labor Day Weekend some things have clarified a bit. The Trump campaign has pulled its TV adverts in Arizona and Biden is up on Trump there by 9 points. Three solid polls in Wisconsin show Biden up by 7+ points. Minnesota seems likely to hold for the Democrats. Pennsylvania is  the biggest weakness for Biden in the 'Blue Wall', with Michigan next. Democrats hold the west coast, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado and Hawaii by reasonable margins. And Democrats hold the east coast north of Virginia up to Maine.

Frontpaged with minor edit - Frank Schnittger


In addition to Pennsylvania and Michigan other states in play include Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Texas. Trump has the rest of the south and the mid west from Oklahoma to North Dakota and over to Montana, plus Alaska.

If we give Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas to Trump and if Trump takes Pennsylvania Biden would still win with 271 votes if he gets all of the votes in Maine and one vote in Nebraska, or if he lost one vote in Maine and got two in Nebraska. That would be a squeaker.

If Trump also takes Michigan Biden loses. But if Biden wins Florida he wins even if Trump takes Michigan and Pennsylvania. And Florida is a real toss up right now, as is North Carolina. But if Biden holds Pennsylvania he can afford to lose Florida and Michigan.  If Trump takes Florida but loses North Carolina Biden would have to have all of the votes from Maine and two votes from Nebraska to reach 271 - really a squeaker.

The tradition has been that US election campaigns start in earnest after Labor Day. A lot can happen between Sept. 9 and Nov. 3. With the latest Trump fiasco over his contempt for those who serve in the military he is now under water with the military and a majority of current and former military intend to vote for Biden. While I am far from certain I believe Biden is more likely to win in November. I cannot wish for a Trump victory to teach the Democrats a lesson, as I am very uncertain if the Republic will still stand after a second Trump term.

For those who want to play with various combinations of states to get to 271 try Teagan Goddard's Electoral Vote Map.

Display:
As for the Senate, Democrats look likely to pick up seats in Arizona, Colorado and Maine. If Doug Jones holds on in Alabama and Biden wins the Presidency, Kamala Harris as VP would cast the deciding vote in the Senate and Democrats would hold both houses.

Other possible Senate pickups include North Carolina where first term incumbent Republican Tom Tilis is trailing challenger Cal Cunningham by around a point, Georgia, where both Senate seats are being contested, South Carolina, Iowa and Montana. In Georgia incumbent Republican Davis Perdue is pretty much  tied with Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff. In South Carolina Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham is facing and unexpectedly strong challenge from Democrat Jamie Harrison. The latest poll, July 30 - August 3 by Quinnipiac University has them tied at 44% each. Analysts rate the race either toss up or lean Republican.

In Iowa the most recent poll by PPP, August 13-14, shows Democratic challenger Theresa
Greenfield leading incumbent Republican Joni Ernst 48% to 45% and all polling since July 1 shows the race very close. And in Montana former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock was leading in the polls until mid July but  Republican Steve Danes has pulled ahead since.

A lot depends on turnout for the election and what, if any, chaos the current USPS disruption by Trump's newly appointed Postmaster General Louis DeJoy has and in which direction. All in all the Democrats have a reasonable chance to take the Senate if they win the Presidency, especially if they win the Presidency by a significant margin. Even if Trump wins re-election by a squeaker it is still possible, though less likely, that the Democrats could still take the Senate. In that case they would be a vital check on Trump's judicial appointees and, to a lesser extent, on Trump's unconstitutional behavior.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Sep 7th, 2020 at 03:43:56 AM EST
Great diary!  I would include your first comment in the body text as it is a vital part of the electoral landscape this fall.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 7th, 2020 at 10:39:34 AM EST
While in the shadows of the presidential election, I think a major story of this election year has been the way challengers from the left has knocked out establishment incumbents. Sure there is a long way to go, but wins can be used to grow organisational strenght for the next round.

One interesting article on how in New York a number of candidates ran as a group, a leftwing slate:

How New York City's Democratic Socialists Swept the Competition - The American Prospect

Forrest's campaign prioritized relationship-building and organizing over winning support from existing power brokers. Once the slate had developed a common platform, the organizing came naturally. "People had way bigger buy-in than just supporting me as an individual," said Forrest. "We got buy-in through the issues."

THE WORKING FAMILIES PARTY has been winning campaigns in New York since the late 1990s, and is a more sophisticated operation, with a significant number of highly qualified paid staff. This storehouse of talent and knowledge was critical to many of the victories, especially Bowman's, who faced an avalanche of outside spending. The DSA's organizing operation, on the other hand, thrived due to motivated volunteers drawn to the agenda of its endorsed candidates.

by fjallstrom on Mon Sep 7th, 2020 at 12:49:29 PM EST
Indeed a most heartening development in US politics has been the development of a core of progressives in the House. It looks like the original core of four, 'The Squad' - Ocasio-Cortez, Presley, Jayapal and Omar - will be more than doubled in November. The distinguishing characteristic of these new progressives is their eschewal of big money donors, reliance on small donations from supporters and mutual support among themselves. And this term that support has expanded to the Senate with AOC's endorsement of Sen. Edward Markey over Joe Kennedy in the Mass. Democratic Primary. Markey is a long term liberal Democrat who has made himself over as a progressive by co-sponsoring legislation including a Green New Deal bill in the Senate.

These new progressives join the Democratic Progressive Caucus, which includes many more establishment Democrats, largely from minority districts. Demographic changes will favor this new progressive brand as younger generations become more of a factor in politics and as white voters become a minority in the USA. The age factor is especially important as older black and latinix voters tend to be socially and economically  conservative, which tends to limit their 'progressivism'. This age factor is largely responsible for Biden being the Democratic candidate in 2020.

The trick will be to maintain at least some semblance of democratic elections for another four to eight years. If Biden wins, then regresses to DNC centrism and embraces austerity, then in 2024 the USA might see a more competent fascist Republican elected President.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Sep 7th, 2020 at 04:02:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Arizona is a puzzle. Controlled by the GOP for half a century, Biden polling really well, Trump campaign "temporarily" pulling out.
by asdf on Mon Sep 7th, 2020 at 04:41:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 7th, 2020 at 04:59:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think it's really a story of demographic change over the short timeframe we're talking.  

It plays a role, of course, but if it were about demographics you'd have expected the "blue shift" in AZ to be pretty modest in 2016 than it was.  Instead, it was massive.  I believe California and Texas were the only states that shifted more to the Dems relative to the popular vote, although Georgia was in that ballpark.

This is really an urban/rural and college/non-college story, i think.  We saw signs of it as Obama assembled his coalition As he took states like Virginia and Colorado.  Trump seems to have accelerated those trends, which is why he was able to flip the Midwest (and why Clinton way overperformed a uniform swing in places like AZ/TX/GA).

That all seems poised to continue, but with the addition that Biden seems able to take some of the non-college white vote back that Clinton lost.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 09:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Colorado it is the urban/rural thing. The population of Denver and the other Front Range cities is exploding. It is a solidly blue state at the moment, and the one GOP senator is possibly the most at-risk of them all.
by asdf on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 10:44:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I've basically assumed Hickenlooper would win that seat pretty easily the whole time.

Virginia and Colorado are the two states that Generic Republican could at least potentially compete in but are simply not going to go for Trump or a Trumpy GOP.  

Pretty diverse, pretty urbanized and pretty well-educated, so just generally bad demos for Trump.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 10:50:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In addition to the rapid demographic change Democrats have been aggressively organizing and registering voters among the Latinx and Native American populations. Few of these potential voters had bothered to register before 2008. It seemed there was no point, given how right wing the state had been, (except for Pima County and Tuscon). Thus, with Trump's harsh anti-immigrant and specifically anti Mexican rhetoric and the growing number of potential unregistered voters, a latent potential became actualized, transforming Arizona politics in the process.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 8th, 2020 at 03:04:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In addition many of the immigrants from California and other US states brought their values with them, thus making the state more liberal.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 8th, 2020 at 03:08:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The story of this election is we're seeing the ending days of the Southern Strategy as the number of old white ignorant hick Evangelical racists is dropping as they croak.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 8th, 2020 at 05:02:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure about that. There are a lot of young hicks.
by asdf on Thu Sep 10th, 2020 at 06:07:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes but not near as many.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Sep 14th, 2020 at 02:11:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's a good chunk, but as a share of the generational population they're pretty small.  (The Millennials seem to be more liberal than the oncoming Zoomers, but the Zoomers are still pretty liberal, it seems, so that trend is roughly continuing.)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 09:23:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the story of the election so far is really that Donald Trump is pretty unpopular, as he's basically been from Day 1.  Most voters seem tired of him, and they hear his opinions and reflexively take the opposite positions.

Meanwhile, they all know who Joe Biden is because they've been watching him on teevee since the Cretaceous Period, and they see him and go, "Yeah, okay, he's fine."  His being boring as hell is probably a feature rather than a bug.

We still have a long way to go though.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 11:13:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm still not sure how much I buy what possibly seems like Biden opening up a huge lead in Arizona, but given Trump's pause there and some of the high-quality public polls, I assume Trump's campaign is seeing the same thing.

Biden is seemingly doing very well with suburbanites and voters aged 65+ relative to how Dems usually perform, so doing well in Arizona wouldn't be altogether surprising.  (It makes the Florida polling mildly surprising, but I think the close race here has a lot to do with Cuban voters.)

I think I have seen enough to say Arizona's more likely to flip than North Carolina, where the race has stayed stubbornly close and reads as essentially a toss-up in the high-quality polls.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 10:53:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, I say the Florida polling is mildly surprising and then Monmouth (one of the best pollsters in the US) comes out with a Florida poll that has Biden leading by...pretty much exactly what you'd expect given the national polls.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 09:10:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What about the Florida Atlantic poll that shows a tie? What do you know about FAU polling?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 02:02:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know much about their polling.  Generally I read the college polls but don't put too much stock in ones that aren't Monmouth, Marquette, Marist, Siena or (their inability to poll Florida aside) Quinnipiac.

It looks to me like Biden's up 7 or 8 nationally, and Florida is astonishingly reliable at being roughly R+3 against the popular vote.  Not that we couldn't see that change obviously, but until it does, that's my assumption.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 10:40:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to a recent CNN report (no link) the Republican lead with white voters is down to +3. Compare to the +15 (59/39) in 2016 when whites were 74% of the total vote.  

According to a Pew 2020 voter projection (no link) whites will be ~68% of the electorate.  Since 2000 Republican need whites to be at least 72% to win.

IF these hold Trump and the GOP in general is in deep, deep, trouble.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 8th, 2020 at 05:01:02 PM EST
Depending on how effective his 'selective' voter suppression turns out to be. I suspect he will suppress at least as much of his own vote as he does of Biden's.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 8th, 2020 at 06:49:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Clinton actually only won 37%.

I doubt very much Biden comes within 10, let alone 3, of Trump among whites.  If he can hit 39 or 40, he should be in fine shape.  If he can hit (say) 42 or 43, he should win going away.

IF he only lost them by 3, I'd likely be in bed by 9PM if I could drink enough to stop laughing.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 09:17:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My usual caveats about polls, but this is interesting:

Majority of voters don't see either Trump, Biden as mentally fit to be president: poll

A CNBC-Change Research national poll found that 55 percent of voters across the country felt Trump was mentally unfit, while 52 percent felt Biden was unfit.

Assuming that we have two large groups that feel only one is mentally fit, and a very, very small one that feels both mentally fit (like the group in exit polls who liked both candidates in 2016), and assuming that voters want to support the candidate they feel is mentally fit then we have:

45% supports Trump and feels he is mentally fit
48% supports Biden and feels he is mentally fit
7% neither is not mentally fit

Which would mean that how the voters split, who feel neither candidate is mentally fit for being president, could very well decide the election. I think that is a new situation. Remember, US elections used to be about which candidate was more liked.

by fjallstrom on Fri Sep 11th, 2020 at 02:05:18 PM EST
These are desperate times in the USA. My own take is that Biden is fit but could use more energy and stamina while Trump it totally unfit psychologically due to his severe Narcisistic Personality Disorder and also at more risk for a disabling stroke or heart attack. It will be interesting to see how this develops over the next two plus months.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Sep 11th, 2020 at 02:49:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US elections are usually about personalities and which candidate you can identify more with but in this case it may come down to which candidate will surround himself with a more able cabinet/key advisors and what their respective policy agendas are. It's hard to see many younger and minority voters identifying strongly with either candidate, but as usual in a bipolar race, it comes down to voters deciding what their least worse option is.

For the moment Biden doesn't have to do or say much or offer great clarity as to his policy agenda - just being not Trump may be enough. He just has to avoid scaring off any of the fragile coalition building around him made up of quite liberal but also quite conservative voters. But if he does win he could reach record levels of unpopularity very quickly unless he institutes real change that people want.

Ronald Raygun was a similarly ancient candidate who couldn't do much, but his team delivered on changes which many voters where persuaded they wanted. Sometimes a very undynamic candidate can still be a catalyst for great change. Reagan was senile for much of his second term.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Sep 11th, 2020 at 04:18:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The "mental fitness" tests are the debates. Everybody can see the status of the current president's mental health, but Biden has been pretty much invisible up to now.
by asdf on Sat Sep 12th, 2020 at 04:04:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Biden might have the serious senior moment he didn't have in the debate with Sanders. But I'm honestly not sure how much that would damage his prospects. After all, I don't think anyone is really enthusiastic about voting for Biden as opposed to against Trump.
As always, turnout decides and anecdotally I've also seen a lot of this:

and this:

I think I can state in confidence that there will be an enthusiasm gap and that the ability to vote will be fucked with at an unprecedented scale.

by generic on Thu Sep 17th, 2020 at 10:23:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is both sad and stupid! There especially needs to be some convenient way for U Mich. students to vote. I hope the Biden campaign at least has a phone bank operation in Mich. Those can be set up utilizing volunteers who remain at home.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 17th, 2020 at 06:41:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
civil suits contesting Census2020 reporting, disqualified candidates and voters, inferior court "national" injunctions, AND ballot counts will be flying fast 'n' furious well into 4Q2021 with assists by the cheeto-dictator and Decent Joe "surrogates".

I reckon, AP will err on side of the latter before polls close, as is the custom. Then Biden's admin will assume the office "under a cloud" (PHASE II) of "illegitimacy" until his ahh untimely death in this

EPIC transferal of power to Top Cop Kamala?!

archived stamps, rejected ballots, Nse Ufot must be new here, no particular order

What surprises me is that anyone on the planet looks to the USA to be a paragon of "democratic processes."
by Cat on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 03:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Under the U.S. Constitution, the House would vote by state delegation to settle such a contest, with each state casting a single vote.
reference
Article II, sec. 1
The electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves. And they shall make a list of all the persons voted for, and of the number of votes for each; which list they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates, and the votes shall then be counted. The person having the greatest number of votes shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such majority, and have an equal number of votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately choose by ballot one of them for President; and if no person have a majority, then from the five highest on the list the said House shall in like manner choose the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by States, the representation from each state having one vote; A quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. In every case, after the choice of the President, the person having the greatest number of votes of the electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal votes, the Senate shall choose from them by ballot the Vice President.
Tilden, 1876
GD II, The Long Depression, 1873 - 1894-ish Spanish War
Compromise of 1877, Dixiecrat demands
by Cat on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 04:18:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
cockroach alert
by Cat on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 06:04:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like this process could be frustrated if the Democrats refused to participate. The Republicans would not have a quorum. The Republicans would only have a bare majority  of states and Wyoming's ~570,000 residents would have the same voting  power as California's > 40 million, which would add legitimacy to such a boycott in the minds of many.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 01:37:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
International election observers back off... USA too Dangerous
There will be far fewer international election observers than planned at this year's fraught US presidential vote because of a combination of health concerns during the pandemic and the lack of an invitation from the state department for Latin American observers.
The electoral arm of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has had to scale down its ambitions because of Covid-related precautions and travel restrictions. It is sending 30 observers, instead of the 500 that had been recommended in view of the scale of concern about the US election.
The Organization of American States (OAS) has yet to receive an invitation to send observers to the 3 November vote, which is threatening to be the most contentious in modern US history as Donald Trump himself repeatedly claims it will be rigged and refuses to say whether he will leave the White House if defeated at the polls.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 09:05:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's just so much going on:
Supreme Court justice Louis Brandeis called states "the laboratories of democracy." Often overlooked, but crucially important in the era of semipermanent Washington gridlock, state legislatures are where some of the biggest policy decisions are made that impact our everyday lives. Decisions on issues such as public school funding, drinking water standards, and police accountability are made in our state capitols.


"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Sun Sep 13th, 2020 at 11:47:39 AM EST
Over the course of the past 8 months in the twitterverse, I have been astounded to find UIDs, purporting amateur  or professional "policy" expertise, who simply will not acknowledge this truth:

The political divisions of the states' governments are identically republican (US Constitution); yet legislators' effects from which legal and economic conditions derive in each jurisdiction are not uniform. Politics is local.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 13th, 2020 at 07:21:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wait, so an Oregon Republican is a socialist too?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 10:17:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL. Not that republican, the other one --standard issue patriot dedicated to oligarchy constituted as bicameral legislature, executive, judiciary, separation of powers,etc.

OTOH, I did cross an ad hoc assembly of "Corn Socialists" on twitter, united in poverty by their lord and savior jeebus the christ.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 12:56:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 03:27:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sat Sep 19th, 2020 at 03:35:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is a week since Labor Day and the general situation is little changed. I have taken averages of poll results Since Sept 1 for AZ,MI,MN,PA & WS, and FL for presidential prefrences:
Those results are:
AZ - Biden +6   average of four polls likely voters
FL - Biden +2.2 average if five polls
MI - Biden +9   average if two polls likely voters
MN - Biden +8.7 average of three polls likely voters
PA - Biden +3.6 average of four polls likely voters
WS - Biden +5.5 average if six polls likely voters

For Arizona the lowest result came from Gravis +2. Gravis has been called the worst polling organization in America. It is a marketing firm that does polling. It has been speculated that it was hired specifically to put out a low number for Biden. Without Gravis the number for Arizona would be Biden +7.3. The rest of the polling organizations appear to be legitimate, but note that 538 has not banned Gravis. Make of it what you
will.

For Florida Trafalgar has Trump +3, the worst result for Biden. But Trafalgar has not been banned by 538, so I will leave it in.

Obviously Florida is the closest, but Biden has many paths to victory without Florida, while Trump cannot say the same. Go Bloomberg! He is spending $100 million in the Florida media market to target various specific ethnic groups such as Puerto Rican immigrants, who can vote immediately, Mexicans, Haitians and other groups that have eligible voters. His money will strain Trump's budget if he is to counter.

After that Pennsylvania is the closest. If Biden takes Pennsylvania he has the election 99 times out of 100. Buckle up!

 

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 03:06:17 AM EST
I believe 538 has only banned one pollster -- Research 2000 -- and it was because they were faking their results.

Trafalgar seems fine, just a Republican-leaning house effect.  There's a difference between "We've modeled the electorate a certain way" and "We're just making shit up".  Silver adjusts for the former.  They've even had a couple fairly good years, if memory serves.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 15th, 2020 at 02:19:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Silver said Hillary would win.
by StillInTheWilderness on Mon Sep 21st, 2020 at 11:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But if I recall he was smart enough to present his conclusion in probabilistic terms which meant there was always a significant % chance Trump would win in his model.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 10:06:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So did every other forecaster.  Silver was the one saying Trump had a 30% chance while everybody else was giving him a 1-2% chance.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 11:04:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Silver's model had IIRC a lot of secret sauce. If so we don't know why he had Trump at 30%. Gut feeling? Covering his reputation for the future?

The 1-2% was as far as I can tell a fair assessment of the state polls. Considering the result, the chances should have been closer to 50-50% (essentially to close to tell in enough states). So polling was way of.

by fjallstrom on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 02:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bingo! And no way of telling if it's good this time. A lot depends on how man Bernie supporters will stay home and how many will vote Biden (or Trump!).
Of course, with mail-in to a central location who knows what the real vote is?  We got notices in the mail that my wife, I and my brother-in-law have not submitted applications for absentee ballots. I know he did because my wife mailed it. (WE did not apply). He's in a nursing home from an automobile accident, he HAS to vote absentee. I'll bet the records will show that we all did.
by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 10:30:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It didn't have "secret sauce".  He explained it numerous times:

He correctly noted that Clinton's lead wasn't very large, that polls are subject to error, and that there were a ton of undecided and third-party voters -- all adding up to a great deal more uncertainly than (say) 2012.

A candidate leading by 3 points with over 10% of voters undecided is not a 98-99% favorite.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 11:57:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Has he published his model?

If so, I must have missed it, but I would be delighted to read it. If not, the model is per definition secret.

by fjallstrom on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 12:48:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nate Silver: Polling analysis

Miscalculation by Democrats in swing states and Trump's Strategy based on data Facebook / Cambridge Analytica ... only Electoral College vote counts.

by Oui on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 02:50:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump received the highest number of votes of any Republican presidential candidate.  His 62,984,828 votes in 2016 was 2,051,324 more than Romney in 2012.  Those voters would not have been included in "Likely Voter" polling screens because they didn't vote in 2008. In fact,  Have to go back and do an analysis of the difference(s) - if any - between 2016 Likely Voter and Registered Voter polls.

Ultimately Trump won by a combination of that, strategic FBI interference in the final month, ~80,000 votes spread across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, a obsolete 18th Century political system, and a grotesquely incompetent campaign by the Democrats.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 02:39:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"...and a grotesquely incompetent campaign by the Democrats." Which is being replayed because it worked so well last time.
by asdf on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 05:41:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's what the DLC do.  They'll get their "campaign contributions" ( = bribes) from the 1% regardless of it they win or lose ... so they don't care.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 11:04:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In truth it is hard for Neo-Liberal 'centrists' NOT to be incompetent. They can't make the traditional Democratic appeal to the bottom 2/3 of the income distribution, as that might offend their precious rich donors. "Where your treasure lies there also  is your heart."


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 24th, 2020 at 05:40:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am assuming that the Senate seats in Arizona, Colorado and Maine will flip from R to D in November and we will welcome Democrats Kelly, Hickenlooper and Gideon to the Senate. Goodby McSally, Bennett and Collins. (Bennett might have survived had it not been a presidential year with Trump leading the ticket.) North Carolina seems to be holding for Cunningham, the Democrat - goodby Tillis - and Iowa is very shaky for Ernst, the Republican incumbent. If Democrat Doug Jones can hang in there in Alabama and Gary Peters remains strong in Michigan the Democrats will have a solid Senate majority with Independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders caucusing with them, even without a pickup in Iowa.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 03:06:02 PM EST
Have to think Alabama is gone.  Trump is leading by 18 points.  The only poll has Tuberville leading by 17 points.  


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 03:32:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is looking grim for Doug. But, as things stand now, the Democrats need one more seat in addition to the relatively certain seats from Arizona, Colorado and Maine and they have several shots to get additional seats. North Carolina seems the best bet with Cal Cunningham holding an aggregate lead in likely voters of +3% in the two most recent polls.

Iowa is a tossup per the analysts but the recent polls have Democrat Theresa Greenfield leading incumbent Joni Ernst by .3%. The turnout and the strength of the Trump vote could be the determinants there.

In South Carolina incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham faces a strong challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who is black. The analysts are split between lean Republican and likely Republican. The two polls since August show a tie. Probable advantage is to Graham, but who knows at this point?

Georgia is a mess. There are two US Senate races. One is the regularly scheduled race for the seat currently held by Republican David Perdue. There are only two recent polls and Democrat Jon Ossoff leads David Perdue by about 2 points. Analysts are split between tossup and lean Republican. So who knows?

The second Georgia Senate race is for the seat held by Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed in January when Johnny Isakson retired. The election on Nov. 3 will have all candidates, Democratic, Republican and others on the ballot and, unless one gets 50% there will be a runoff in January between the top two. There will be two strong Republican candidates on the ticket, Doug Collins and Kelly Loeffler, though Collins leads in head to head matchups. The two strongest Democrats are Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock. No candidate, Republican or Democrat, has broken 30% in the polling. The results of the Nov. 3 election will likely depend more on who drops out than any other factor.

In sum, both Georgia races are mysteries, but one will be solved in November, most likely.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 16th, 2020 at 07:47:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Colorado seems like as sure a bet as one could make.  Arizona looks highly likely because McSally is the Republicans' answer to Martha Coakley.  

Maine and NC seem to be in pretty good shape.  That's enough to get to 50 assuming Jones loses (which he will barring a complete collapse by Trump).

After that, it gets tough.  Iowa seems likeliest to flip.  Georgia is possible, although I wish to god Abrams had run instead of Ossoff.  Two of the three Dems also need to drop out of the second Georgia race since it's a Jungle Primary.

Kansas, Alaska, Texas and South Carolina seem to have potential (Cornyn and Graham are polling with really weak numbers).

I guess we could get a polling miss and see Bullock win in Montana, but it doesn't look good there.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Sep 17th, 2020 at 10:38:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A week later and Graham is actually behind in S.C., even if only by about 2 pts. on average. It will be sweet if HE loses. And Iowa is showing a consistent small lead for Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield, averaging ~2.6 pts. and from three quality polling organizations. Even one more Senate seat for the Democrats would make governing easier.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 12:54:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Colorado the current R senator who is up for re-election and is likely to lose is Cory Gardner.
by asdf on Thu Sep 17th, 2020 at 03:23:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To me, as a very occasional observer of US politics - I sort of lost interest after Trump's win - the most remarkable feature of the 2020 campaign has been its stability: The average of polls has only moved by 1-2% whereas in precious elections swings of over 10% were not uncommon. Apart from one rogue Rasmussen poll (quelle surprise) which had Trump +1% nationally, all Polls are in Bidens favour, generally in the 5-9% range, average c. 7%.

This indicates to me that this election is not about relatively volatile things like perceptions of campaign performance, performance in office, national conventions, policy platforms, but about something semi-permanent: Tribal identification. People don't change their tribal identification much, so this election is about maximising the turnout of your tribe, not wooing the undecideds.

But something has been changing in the battleground states. Whereas Hillary was gradually sliding in the polls in these states as the election neared, and 42 days before polling day, she was only up 1.3% in those states. Biden, by way of contrast has held steady, and is now up 4.1% in those states; a net improvement on Hillary's performance of 2.8%, 42 days out from election day. This is in stark contrast to July/August, when Biden was doing worse than Hillary in the battleground states at that stage.

Even Florida has consistently had a 60% chance of a Biden Victory. Of course a few Biden blunders or a poor performance in the debates could still change things, but barring a Biden melt-down, vast and successful voter suppression by Trump, or outright counting fraud, this election is Biden's to lose.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 04:03:14 PM EST
I think it is early to reach conclusions. The supreme court nomination is going to be a chance for both sides to appeal to their bases. The October Surprise (typically an international incident) has not been played yet. The stock market has not collapsed. Schools are just now returning to in-person teaching, so it will be another month before the COVID-19 cases skyrocket. The hurricane season is only half over and we are already on Greek names--and nobody has said what names come after them.
by asdf on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 05:44:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump's children?
by Bernard on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 08:33:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There aren't enough of them. How about Boris' children?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 08:54:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But it has just come out in a long NYT Sunday article that Trump has shown what should be gifts to Ivanka as business expenses. And Don Jr. is a perpetual gaffe machine. Add to that Trump having shown as a business expense what other members of his family, like Eric, have repeatedly called 'a family retreat' and things could get interesting:
'The estate is "really our compound," Eric Trump told the magazine then, recalling his summers and weekends there with Donald Trump Jr. when they rode ATVs and went fishing. "It was home base for us for a long, long time," Eric said, "until I finally bought another house and moved out." ' Kids say the darndest things!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 01:16:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
43 days out and the signs are the Democrats will keep the House and maybe add some seats, Biden is as sure as anything is in politics to win the presidency,  and the odds are beginning to turn for the Senate to flip.

National polling has consistently shown Biden leading.

In short: this isn't 2016 and Biden is not Clinton.

And, interestingly:

... there's potential for the Roe v. Wade/abortion issue and the Affordable Care Act to drive a wedge in Trump's coalition. In 2016, much of his support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked Trump's rhetoric on trade and immigration, but consider themselves pro-choice -- especially non--evangelical, blue-collar women. And, these voters remain up for grabs in 2020.

Have to see how this turns out over the next couple of weeks.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 11:27:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
His appointment of an Illinois Catholic woman might draw blue collar Catholic women. While not necessarily anti-abortion, these women don't like seeing an all or mostly Protestant Male court.
If she is fanatically Catholic, i.e. a female Catholic Pence, then yes, they will be repelled unless they too are fanatics in which case Trump had them anyway.

American Catholics, even Irish Catholics, are not the same as Ireland's Catholics. And more often than not have intermarried with Italian and Polish Catholics who do not have the same anti-sex indoctrination. I remember my Polish-Italian buddy and I in High School would filch our condoms from his father's ample supply. And they were staunch Catholics, just didn't want a dozen kids. IIRC a poll said 80% of American Catholics practiced non-rhythm birth control.

by StillInTheWilderness on Fri Sep 25th, 2020 at 10:32:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
'An easy selection': Trump settled quickly on Barrett
Following Trump's announcement, the confirmation process will move to the Senate. The Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to hold a confirmation hearing the week of Oct. 12. A Supreme Court confirmation hearing typically lasts three to four days. Then, Senate Republicans are aiming to confirm the nominee before the election, although Democrats are doing everything they can to delay the process with procedural moves.
no more LBJ logs to roll over their "colleagues", eh
An ABC/Washington Post poll released Friday showed the majority of Americans believe the Senate should not confirm a new justice until after the election, when the winner of the presidential race is clear. Only 38 percent of Americans surveyed said the confirmation should happen before Nov. 3.
#FIFTHWAVE #WomensMarch #MeToo #TimesUp suicide note developing ...
by Cat on Sat Sep 26th, 2020 at 05:50:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Meh! It's not even tradition, much less law.

62% of Americans probably believe space aliens caused COVID. Ninety percent are sheep parroting what they heard on the soi-disant "news".

by StillInTheWilderness on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 05:16:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Amy Coney Barrett, a proven conservative with a compelling personal story
Barrett, the mother of seven children and a former law clerk to the late right-wing beacon Justice Antonin Scalia, Barrett, now 48, was a finalist for the Supreme Court spot that went to Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 [...]

Advocates on the far right have backed her possible nomination because of her writings on faith and the law. Religious conservatives were especially energized for Barrett when, during the 2017 confirmation hearing for her current judgeship, Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California suggested to her that the "dogma lives loudly within you."

May become the judicial Margy Thatcher.

Trump is not triangulating, but going for the jugular as Republicans tend to do. That might be faintly attractive for presumably outraged female voters.

by das monde on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 10:11:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to the Marquette Law School poll couple of weeks ago, about half of Republican and Democrats though next Supreme Court appointment as important and only third of independents.

And this is with the high-pitched screaming on the issues in MSM. If the media was more reflecting on the interests of the population and not creating issues, I'd guess even bigger majority of USians would reply "who cares"...

It's almost like the general population instinctively knows that the kind of retroactive constitutionality checks used in common law countries are slow, cumbersome and leave much leeway for legislators and courts to misbehave. Or that the SCOTUS hasn't been that good in upholding the constitution in the last decades, anyway.

by pelgus on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 10:50:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree that far too many citizens in nominally 'democratic' countries take their form of government for granted. In the USA we are having a bit of a wake-up call. A significant portion of the electorate is becoming increasingly alarmed that what they thought "couldn't happen here" is well on the way to actually happening. If even a few percent of eligible voters who would likely not have voted in this election are indeed alarmed and turn out to vote to preserve at least the form of our government that will change the outcome.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 12:24:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It will be fascinating to see what happens when those "presumably outraged female voters" find out that not only is abortion illegal in their red states, but so is contraception.
by asdf on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 05:13:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 02:56:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And they can no longer own real property in their own name

And they can no longer have their own bank accounts.

And they can no longer have a credit card in their own name.

And they have no legal right to assume contractual obligations, e.g., get a bank loan.

etc. etc. etc.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 03:26:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That can be taken as anti-Catholic and might draw even more Catholics to support her. Like Hillary's "deplorables" clinging to "guns and religion".
by StillInTheWilderness on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 05:19:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Outraged women run for office

"[M]any GOP women felt that those women in those movements do not speak for them," said Deckman, citing both the Women's March and the #MeToo movement as events that may have sparked more GOP women to run, telling me that some Republicans may be running to "put out a counternarrative of what women's interests actually entail."


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 10:41:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Republican women I see running in here in Illinois are anti-abortion, anti-tax, and anti-mask.
by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 03:25:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I note Trump played the Racist Card last month, previously a sure-fired hit with white voters especially suburb white women, and it fell with a thud.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 22nd, 2020 at 11:29:23 PM EST
guts adversarial premises of Civil Rights Acts--most recently Title VII EEOC mandate--and Voting Rights Act while assuring majority of US Americans that "no one living" is responsible for curing crimes past or present with "workplace diversity trainings".

Executive Order on Combating Race and Sex Stereotyping

by Cat on Fri Sep 25th, 2020 at 02:41:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you Cat for bringing us this valuable insight from the Wild Card President...

This destructive ideology is grounded in misrepresentations of our country's history and its role in the world. Although presented as new and revolutionary, they resurrect the discredited notions of the nineteenth century's apologists for slavery who, like President Lincoln's rival Stephen A. Douglas, maintained that our government "was made on the white basis" "by white men, for the benefit of white men." Our Founding documents rejected these racialized views of America, which were soundly defeated on the blood-stained battlefields of the Civil War.

Insightful syllogism which shows us that the BLM movement is pro-slavery, unlike the Founding Daddies.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 10:18:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 02:49:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have a feeling that the Republican push to confirm Trump''s choice of a replacement for RGB on SCOTUS will end up driving a wedge right up Trump's fat ass. It will drive a lot* of women who are on the fence solidly into voting for Biden for President. Add that to Biden's already much stronger position among rural voters as compared to Clinton in '16 and that is the wining margin. The next two to three weeks should tell whether it is a squeaker or a landslide.

* 'a lot' = > 3% more of likely women voters.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 24th, 2020 at 05:55:18 PM EST
It's all about turnout and Dems are afraid to vote because of COVID. Reps aren't.  Mail-in ballots? Two days ago I mailed a package to Alabama from Illinois. Due South. Today it's in Chicago marked "undeliverable" and being forwarded to another location in Chicago.  How many ballots will be misdirected?
by StillInTheWilderness on Sun Sep 27th, 2020 at 05:25:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know a lot of southern Democratic women in swing states that swear they will crawl through broken glass on their knees to vote Trump out of office. And some of those Republican women who are running to show that the party line about women does not represent them will likely vote for Biden.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Sep 28th, 2020 at 10:06:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IMHO, with Joe Biden you see an assault on workingmen and retirees like you wouldn't believe from the influence peddling author of "The Catfood Commission".
He openly bragged about withholding appropriated funds to quash an investigation of his son. I heard him!
by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 03:22:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My "priority" package is still bouncing around Chicago.
by StillInTheWilderness on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 02:03:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does anybody think this will influence anyone's vote?

Wealthy Republicans do it too. Poor Republicans would, if they paid income tax. They all hate government.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 09:08:15 AM EST
You may think this crowd (particularly of the 4:00-5:00 minute) would be confounded. But think again.

by das monde on Tue Sep 29th, 2020 at 09:33:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have difficulty imagining that Trump helped himself in this debate. I cannot imagine that any women who  were undecided will be convinced to vote for the Mansplainer in Chief. I cannot see how Trump helped himself with the active military or the vets, especially in his disrespect and lying about Hunter Biden's service in Iraq and his subsequent death. And I cannot see ANY Black or Latinx being won over to Trump. Re Proud Boys Trump said "Stand by!"

And this is all BEFORE we get to the handling of COVID, the deaths and the economic disruption caused by Trump's incompetence and self absorption. This debate video should be a gift that keeps giving for the Biden campaign. Run a clip of Trump trying to talk over Chris Wallace, the moderator. Note that we HAVE HAD dignified governments and presidents in the past. Ask if you, the voter, want a return to dignity and competence or four more years of Trumian chaos.

Once again Trump put on vivid display his contempt for the norms of the US process of conducting elections. He is running against the whole electoral process. Now the Biden campaign should insist that any future debates have the candidates in glass booths and that the moderator is required to mute the microphone of the candidate who is NOT supposed to be speaking. Level the playing field.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 30th, 2020 at 03:49:07 AM EST
Once again Trump put on vivid display his contempt for the norms of the US process of conducting elections. He is running against the whole electoral process.

That can work if his base thinks the system is rigged against them, if the "electoral process" is part of the machinery preventing them from having nice things.
Like living wages, healthcare, education etc.  
by pelgus on Wed Sep 30th, 2020 at 10:47:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The "electoral process" is only a problem because it is supposed to give a vote to racial minorities, non-Christians, and sexual deviants not made in God's image. Anything you can't buy isn't worth anything. Only true white Americans are worthy of the vote. All others are cheats, spongers, communists and libruls using the political system for their own ends, when it was never meant for them in the first place.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 30th, 2020 at 05:12:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump thinks he won.

538/ABC poll found:

Debate watchers were pretty decisive in their verdict of last night's performances: Only about one-third said Trump's performance was "somewhat good" or "very good," and 50 percent said it was "very poor."

But

Most respondents started out firmly in either Biden or Trump's camp, and the debate didn't change that: In fact, very few people changed their minds at all about how likely they were to vote for each candidate.

Trump desperately needed to change the sitz im leben of the 2020 elections, not only for himself but for the Republican Party.  He didn't.  Every single one of the Cook Political Report's - a highly touted US political analyst group - rating changes have been in favor of the Democrats.  The most recent example was both Iowa and Ohio deemed Toss Up from Solid Republican earlier in the year.

While there's no evidence Trump will eke out a win in 2020 there wasn't any evidence Trump was going to win in 2016.  Countering a surprise is the fact the polling average on Oct. 1 2016 had Clinton with 43.5% and Trump with 40.3% while today Biden leads 50.5% to 42.9%. Trump managed, with some help from the FBI, to close the gap over the month, pulled out an additional 2 million votes over Romney's 2012 total, and had ~80,000 voters in the right places in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  He'll have to do something like this year and without a key 2016 voting block: suburban white women, who deserted the GOP in 2018.

Can Trump get re-elected.  Yes, there's no Law of the Universe saying nay.  Is it likely he'll be re-elected?  With what we now as of 30 Sept. 2020: no.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Sep 30th, 2020 at 08:55:15 PM EST
Facebook announced that it's banning any ads in support of the far-right group Qanon and any militarized social movements.
by Oui on Thu Oct 1st, 2020 at 04:06:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Problem is Trump is once again doing marginally better against Biden than he did against Hillary in key battleground states at this stage in the campaign.

Yes he needs something like the FBI scam to pull into the lead there, as he did against Hillary, in the final stages of the campaign, but as President he holds a lot of the cards. Trump could lose the popular vote by as much as 5% and still have a non-trivial chance of winning, and that is before you consider millions of votes getting lost in the post.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 1st, 2020 at 10:33:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The most recent map based on polling has Biden with 279 - 271 needed to win - Electoral Votes, Trump with 119, and 140 to play for.

Cook Political Report just moved Iowa and Ohio to Toss-Up from Likely Republican earlier in the year.

Things are so bad for the Republicans Texas(!) and Georgia(!!) are polling within the MOE.

Trump tanked in the first "debate" (sic)

And now the whole rotten crew has come down with Covid.

Trump's re-election looking less likely as Nov 3 draws near.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 03:40:15 PM EST


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