Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Losing Battle Against Omicron

by Oui Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 08:40:09 AM EST

Lab tests: Eli Lilly, Regeneron antibody therapies lose out against Omicron ...

Follow-up diary from my earlier Latest Data Omicron Variant

Omicron may sideline two leading drugs against COVID-19 | PBS |

As strained U.S. hospitals brace for a new surge of COVID-19 cases caused by the fast-spreading omicron variant, doctors are warning of yet another challenge: the two standard drugs they've used to fight infections are unlikely to work against the new strain.

For more than a year antibody drugs from Regeneron and Eli Lilly have been the go-to treatments for early COVID-19, thanks to their ability to head off severe disease and keep patients out of the hospital.

But both drugmakers recently warned that laboratory testing suggests their therapies will be much less potent against omicron, which contains dozens of mutations that make it harder for antibodies to attack the virus. And while the companies say they can quickly develop new omicron-targeting antibodies, those aren't expected to launch for at least several months.

A third antibody from British drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline appears to be the best positioned to fight omicron. But Glaxo's drug is not widely available in the U.S., accounting for a small portion of the millions of doses purchased and distributed by the federal government. U.S. health officials are now rationing scarce drug supplies to states.

Americans not showing interest in getting vaccinated, 30% still unvaccinated. Third or booster shot not being sought ... the virus variant sees great opportunities.

Nearly One Third Of Healthcare Workers In U.S. Hospitals Are Still Not Vaccinated Against Covid-19, CDC Study Finds, As Vaccine Mandate Looms | Forbes - Nov. 14, 2021 |

Some 30% of healthcare personnel who worked at the thousands of hospitals in the United States were still not fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of mid-September, according to a new survey by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as tensions escalate over a looming--and contested--nationwide mandate that officials worry will leave the sector with a shortage of critical workers. 

Federal Judge Blocks Vaccine Mandate for Health Workers | NY Times - Nov. 30, 2021 |

Failure to organize early booster shots ...

Israel moves into fifth Covid wave

Time is running out, the 5th wave has started - Bennett | JPost |

More Tory Conservatives considering resignation?

Omicron deaths in UK rise to 12, officials warn no guarantees on Christmas restrictions

Britain has reported record levels of COVID-19 cases, with officials and ministers warning that the full effects of the latest wave are still yet to be seen.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 11:09:02 AM EST
Still roaming around, not extinct ...

Great Barrington Declaration

The declaration calls for individuals at significantly lower risk of dying from COVID-19 - as well as those at higher risk who so wish - to be allowed to resume their normal lives, working normally at their usual workplaces rather than from home, socialising in bars and restaurants, and gathering at sporting and cultural events. The declaration claims that increased infection of those at lower risk would lead to a build-up of immunity in the population that would eventually also protect those at higher risk from the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The declaration makes no mention of physical distancing, masks, tracing, or long COVID, which has left patients suffering from debilitating symptoms months after the initial infection.

Authored by Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford, Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, and Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University, it was drafted at the American Institute for Economic Research in Great Barrington, Massachusetts, and signed there on 4 October 2020.

Dr. Eli David, himself well educated, is a prime exhibit ...

What a hogwash ... will soon be replaced by AI, for better or worse.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 12:01:09 PM EST
Trump advisers consult scientists pushing disputed herd immunity strategy | Politico - Oct. 6, 2020 |

The trio, who Azar described as "three distinguished infectious disease experts," favors moving aggressively to reopen the economy while sidelining broad testing and other fundamental public health measures. "Three months, maybe six is sufficient time for enough immunity to accumulate ... that the vulnerable could resume normal lives," Gupta said in appearance on Laura Ingraham's Fox News show.

That aligns with the "herd-immunity" strategy endorsed by Atlas, who Bhattacharya said was their "point of contact" for the meeting. Dr. Scott Atlas, a neuroradiologist and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, has emerged as a favored adviser to the president despite his lack of expertise in public health, infectious disease or epidemiology, and his skepticism of basic safety measures like wearing masks.

HHS refused to comment on the scientists' meeting with Azar and Atlas' role in it, or whether the Trump administration is shifting to a herd immunity strategy.

Yep, whatever policy politicians choose from, it will always be supported by (pseudo) science. 😡

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 12:02:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not Conservative Enough

In the playbook of Eli ...

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 12:02:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So the Great Barrington tools are whining about being excluded instead of engaged.  "Help, help we're being oppressed!  Come and see the violence inherent in the system!"  All the while failing to acknowledge that they are denying and even attacking the methods and foundations of the system the operate within.  Herd immunity has NEVER been a success (The mere fact that Europeans did not die from measles and small pox at as high a rate as Indigenous Americans does not mean they did not die in droves.), and anyone who claims otherwise is selling something.  Which is what is happening here.  The Great Barringtons and their allies are rejecting the science that has made them successful and taking a position based solely on their own social, political, and economic interests.  This is one of those rare cases when self-proclaimed "freedom fighters" are demonstrably just terrorists.  They are willing to kill at an unprecedented rate to protect those already in power.  And since they are undoubtedly being well compensated for their efforts, they aren't just terrorists, they're whores.
by rifek on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 06:47:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hoover fellow Scott Atlas uses Stanford College Republicans event to rewrite history

Throughout the pandemic, Hoover Institution senior fellow Scott Atlas has repeatedly pushed groundless claims about pandemic mitigation strategies. But he used his Friday showing at an event hosted by the Stanford College Republicans to claim he had never put forth such statements -- including those regarding mask wearing and herd immunity -- while continuing to argue for their validity.

Entering the White House position, Atlas said that he was "naive" about politics and did not expect the wave of criticism he received. When asked whether he would accept a position in a future Republican presidential administration, Atlas said he would not return to "that kind of poisonous atmosphere."

Atlas was named special adviser to Trump and member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force in August following frequent appearances on Fox News, where he promoted baseless pandemic mitigation strategies unsupported by most infectious disease experts. While Atlas was in Washington, the Stanford faculty was forced to confront questions over the limits of academic freedom.

At the event, Atlas said he was the target of cancel culture and an effort to silence and delegitimize him using "falsifications and misrepresentations," which he alleges damages the University's reputation and "dishonors" the Stanford Code of Conduct. 

Dutch PM Rutte denies his remarks made on herd immunity ... the Oxford presentation how to attack Covid-19 made earlier by ally Boris Johnson.

Report on the Hoover Institution and Stanford University

    Martin Luther King, Jr., said, "Peace is not the absence of tension, it is the presence of justice."

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 01:30:04 PM EST
'It is embarrassing': CDC struggles to track Covid cases[, SAR-CoV-2 variants, causes of death, "vaccine equity"] as Omicron looms and weekly average disclaimers
"I think we've done a horrible job from day one in data tracking for the pandemic," said Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and former advisory board member of the Covid Tracking Project, a team that worked to collect and synthesize local Covid-19 during the peak[s] of the pandemic.
Consolidated Appropriations Act (Dec 2020, American Rescue Plan (Mar 2021), "positivity" productivity algos and "dashboard data visualizations" funding exhausted
In an interview with POLITICO, Dan Jernigan, the deputy director of the CDC's Public Health Science and Surveillance office, acknowledged that the CDC had not yet secured additional future funding to improve state data collection -- funding supplemental to the money it earmarks for ["]data modernization["] annually.
ya think?
"There's a lot of data that's coming in from a lot of different places. It's coming in from the U.K., it's coming in from Israel, it's coming in a lot from South Africa, which is ahead of the rest of the world in the experience they're having with Omicron," Fauci said. "We've gotten virus either in the live virus form or in the pseudo virus form [wtaf]. But we don't have enough of this in the United States to be able to bank on our own clinical experience which is in contrast to the South Africans who are in real time experiencing the clinical impact of Omicron."
four horsemen of irreproducibility
"We're relying on everyone else's data. We should be providing data to the world and we are not," said Zeke Emanuel, a ["]bioethicist["] and former member of President Biden's transition Covid-19 advisory board. "We started [the pandemic] with a serious problem of not enough data and bad data infrastructure. We have not made the structural investments we need. The ideal is that we have real time data[, possibly a valid sample size to describe normal distribution]. And we don't have that. We're not even close to that."
archived I see second waves everywhere.
by Cat on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 03:53:27 PM EST
American sciences, 4 Feb 2020
by Cat on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 04:52:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sep 2020 positivity productivity

Dec 2020 clinical experience
["Maglev"] Hogan tests positive for COVID-19 breakthrough case
by Cat on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 06:00:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"We've gotten virus either in the live virus form or in the pseudo virus form [wtaf].

precision engineering in BSL2 lab
Pseudovirus systems for SARS-CoV-2
Several recent attempts have been made to generate a reliable pseudovirus system for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that first appeared in 2019 and caused a pandemic.

One packaging system that has been used for the generation of SARS-CoV-2 pseudoviruses includes the highly efficient lentiviral vector system. Lentiviral vectors, which are typically the first packaging system used by researchers to create a novel envelope-pseudotyped virus, typically originating from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV), feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) or vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV).

What Pseudoviruses Bring to the Study of SARS-CoV-2
HIV-based platforms, which came about in the 1980s, have since replaced VSV as the most common model for developing both pseudo- and chimeric viruses. Unlike VSV's negative-strand RNA genome that must be transcribed once inside the cell, HIV's positive-strand RNA genome can instantly begin translation, making pseudoviruses based on HIV faster to produce.
Muik et al., "Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 pseudovirus by BNT162b2 [BioNTech-Pfizer] vaccine-elicited human sera", 12 Mar 2021
by Cat on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 12:28:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
APsplainin RAGING model omicron positivity discrepancies worldwide
Case drop may show South Africa's omicron peak has passed
Some health officials in New York have suggested that because South Africa appears to have experienced a quick, mild wave of omicron, the variant may behave similarly there and elsewhere in the U.S. But Nunes cautions against jumping to those conclusions.

"Each setting, each country is different. The populations are different. The demographics of the population, the immunity is different in different countries," she said. South Africa's population, with an average age of 27, is more youthful than many Western countries, for instance.

btw, CSIS | The World's Largest HIV Epidemic

  • Nearly 4.8 million people were on anti-retroviral treatment (ART) in South Africa at the end of 2018, with approximately 680,000 newly initiated during that year.2
  • Progress toward the 90-90-90 goals (90% of all people living with HIV know their HIV status, 90% of all people with diagnosed HIV infection are on sustained treatment ["cocktail"], and 90% of all people receiving treatment are virally suppressed) stood at 91-70-83 as of September 2019.
  • Life expectancy has rebounded from 52.5 years in 2005 to nearly 63 years in 2018 as a result of a 70 percent and 59 percent decline in deaths among adult women and men, respectively, since 2005.
  • Together, 27 districts in 8 provinces account for approximately 80 percent of PLHIV.4 KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng [!] Provinces, which house the municipalities of Durban, Pietermaritzburg, Pretoria, and Johannesburg, together account for approximately 50 percent [!] of the HIV burden.
The immediate and long-term implications of COVID-19 for PLHIV and the overall public health system are likely to expose the fragility[?] of the HIV response. PLHIV, especially those who are not virally suppressed, are already immunocompromised and at increased risk of TB and other infectious and opportunistic diseases.
3CL protease living lab archive Mon Dec 6th, 2021, omicron origin story Thu Nov 25th, 2021
by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 05:22:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have expressed my skepticism for the novelty of the omicron variant; it's been circulating worldwide for more than a year, undifferentiated from delta dominant pandemic that captured the imaginations of vaccine marketers and infectious disease "experts" who influence gov trade and domestic policies.

Yet in a period of 27 days, between "discovery" of SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant in South Africa (24 Nov- 21 Dec), despite federal "travel ban" between US and eight (8) sub-Saharan nations and "shortages" of COVID-19 "rapid antibody" test kits--none of which approved by FDA to detect the omicron variant--several US cities have announced a suspiciously ubiquitous increase of 73% COVID-19 cases, attributed to the omicron variant... alone.

Neither publicly reported COVID-19 data nor abstruse mRNA technical audits appear to support such a SURGE of "excess death," attributed to delta communicability... alone. Nonetheless, to conform to a widely publicized prediction by such experts as Mr Fauci that "raging" omicron variant would rapidly replace delta as the leading cause of death, US press quickly has assembled a feature story to stimulate "herd" vigilance, "mandates," and demand for brand-name prophylactic ahhh devices.
First confirmed US OMICRON DEATH reported in Houston, usurping earlier UK tabloid boasting death with omicron. Sadly, this PR is itself short on novelty.

"The death reported this afternoon was of a man between the ages of 50-60 years old who was unvaccinated and had been infected with Covid-19 previously. The individual was at higher risk of severe complications from Covid-19 due to his unvaccinated status and had underlying health conditions," Harris County Public Health announced Monday.

Omicron has displaced the delta variant as the dominant coronavirus strain circulating in Harris County, whose seat is Houston, with Houston Methodist Hospital's director of microbiology Dr. Wesley Long reporting on Sunday that the new variant accounts for 82% of its symptomatic* patients since late last week.

* symptoms in vivo: easily the least reliable "bio marker" of a specific variant or its "high transmissibility", much less onset of COVID-19 severity. My Z-informant, for example, attended an employee holiday event 10 Dec. assuming all guests were vaccinated. No one was masked. Monday, the CEO advised, one guest tested positive over the weekend. A rush to test ensued (public sites, as kits were scarce), resulting in ~50% pos, 0 hospitalizations.
by Cat on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 09:55:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 01:48:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Learn something

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 05:27:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have over the past 23 months of having sifted "8M COVID-19 stories" in the naked city, more than necessary to formulate a scientific opinion of least cost/benefit pharmaceutical intervention that's "right for me." (boilerplate "consumer-patient" compliance lit)

"Low-tech" (not jeebus) or nothing.

My path is not your path. I've detected a pattern in mechanism of action (MOA) disclaimers in academic "discussions" or legal notes found in every.single. advertisement: "common adverse reaction" notices; but you (pl.) have to gather the bread crumbs in order to find a reasonable "pathway" to your health care objective d/b/a "quality of life"... or death.

I've been living on the sidelines with one of the most mysterious autoimmune diseases on the planet (MS) for 24 years, thereby being "uniquely positioned"--as the PR industry is wont to say--to evaluate prospective claims, statistical descriptions of, and GAPS in clinical and palliative outcomes, published by industry incumbents and "market entrants" in "my space" of "standard of care". Reasonable expectation of toxicity ("secondary conditions") arising from contraindicated combinations of "immunomodulating" drugs has been an turnkey risk criterion in my book since Day1 diagnosis for myself as well as propounded by intimate knowledge of deleterious effects of disease "modifying treatments" prescribe to my parents (RIP) that are routinely prescribed to similarly situated patients.

More significant, only this last month, have I acquired (1) relevant, personal experience with an experimental medication "approved" by the FDA that adversely reacted with another medication whose efficacy is established and (2) access to proprietary focus group session recordings, prepared by a PR firm for a couple of high-profile pharmaceutical manufacturers soliciting cancer and MS endorsements from "health care provider" and patient respondents to "language" prompts. So.

You do you.

by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 08:38:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here is the response from my kid-bro, transformed from DOJ atty to corp "health care" partner since 2006, when I reminded him ONE MONTH AGO that a common adverse reaction (Y1) to the experimental drug prescribed by my neurologist is neutropenia (AKA leukopenia) in a PANDEMIC:

NO PROBLEM! Get a prescription for Neulasta

by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 09:24:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sun et al., "Association Between Immune Dysfunction and COVID-19 Breakthrough Infection After SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in the US" 28 Dec
Meaning  The findings suggest that persons with immune dysfunction are at much higher risk for contracting a breakthrough infection and thus should use nonpharmaceutical interventions (eg, mask wearing) and alternative vaccination approaches (eg, additional dose or immunogenicity testing) even after full vaccination.
Here I am, exercising common sense risk management, except for this "DDI" interlude prescribed by my neurologist IN A PANDEMIC who assured me I have nothing to lose by losing leukocytes in me blood, IF a certain FDA-approved "investigational" pharmacology perhaps inhibits lesion growths in me CNS over the next two (2) years.
by Cat on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 04:41:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This cohort study received approval from the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine Institutional Review Board. No informed consent was obtained because the study used de[-]identified data. We followed the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) reporting guideline.
archived "COVID-related" behavioral study
I participated in this weekly, web-based survey for ~ 10 months, and not one questionnaire--not even the initial Rx screening--queried ADRs. It was a tiresome, repetitive template. But let's presume Rx initial Rx screening (no immuno-mudulating regimen) and subsequent COVID-pos contact tracing, symptom queries as well as Likert "mood" traps (none) excluded my exposure to A/B conditional testing: I withdrew from the exercise with the distinct impression it was a wasted opportunity.  
by Cat on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 05:54:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
wut: "We used December 10, 2020, the date that the US Food and Drug Administration approved the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for general use [?!], as the beginning of the study observation period."
by Cat on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 06:00:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This study has several limitations. First, it is limited by the nature of using EMR-based data, which could potentially lead to misclassified immune dysfunction and comorbid conditions, although we anticipate this misclassification to be nondifferential. Second, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status was captured in the EMR of large academic medical centers, which may not fully account for vaccinations that occur outside of their hospital settings, such as pharmacies and mass vaccination sites. However, this underreporting is less likely to affect patients with immune dysfunction because they are more likely to receive regular care, and would not alter the comparisons of risk. Third, we did not evaluate the risk for a breakthrough infection among patients with other immune dysfunctions, such as cancer and other rheumatoid diseases, nor did we directly evaluate exposure to immunosuppressant regimens. However, the sensitivity analysis we performed that excluded patients with cancer and other rheumatoid diseases yielded consistent results with the primary analyses.
by Cat on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 06:35:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 04:43:58 PM EST
MPK am Dienstag - Neue Corona-Regeln ab 28. Dezember geplant

Germany is on track to hit its goal of administering 30 million booster doses by the end of the year

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 05:31:30 PM EST

EMA issues advice on use of Paxlovid (PF-07321332 and ritonavir) for the treatment of COVID-19: rolling review starts in parallel

The medicine, which is not yet authorised in the EU, can be used to treat adults with COVID-19 who do not require supplemental oxygen and who are at increased risk of progressing to severe disease. Paxlovid should be administered as soon as possible after diagnosis of COVID-19 and within 5 days of the start of symptoms.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Dec 20th, 2021 at 10:22:31 PM EST
PAXLOVID™ is a protease inhibitor combined with ritonavir, another protease inhibitor approved by the FDA to treat HIV.
archived Sun Jan 26th, 2020: "Online RUMORS say that an anti-Aids drug ..."
by Cat on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 01:05:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes ["]First["] Oral Antiviral for Treatment of COVID-19
(nirmatrelvir tablets and ritonavir tablets, co-packaged [!] for oral use) for the treatment of mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in adults and pediatric patients (12 years of age and older weighing at least 40 kilograms or about 88 pounds) with positive results of direct SARS-CoV-2 testing, and who are at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19, including hospitalization or death. Paxlovid™ [AKA "Pfizermectin"] is available by prescription only and should be initiated as soon as possible after diagnosis of COVID-19 and within five days of symptom onset.
Paxlovid™ is not authorized for the pre-exposure [?!] or post-exposure prevention [?1!] of COVID-19 or for initiation of treatment in those requiring hospitalization due to severe or critical COVID-19. Paxlovid™ is not a substitute for vaccination in individuals for whom COVID-19 vaccination and a booster dose are recommended. The FDA has approved [licensed?] one vaccine [Pfizer-BioNTech COMIRNATY®] and authorized others to prevent COVID-19 and serious clinical outcomes associated with a COVID-19 infection, including hospitalization and death. The FDA urges the public to get vaccinated and receive a booster if eligible.
by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 06:40:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The "safety" disclaimers are nearly as frightening as long-term THREAT of SARS-CoV-2 "drug resistance" FKA  ADE AKA "gain of function" attributed to "uncontrolled or undiagnosed HIV-1 infection" CONTAINED in the World's Largest HIV Epidemic.
Because Paxlovid works, in part, by inhibiting a group of enzymes that break down certain drugs, Paxlovid is contraindicated with certain drugs that are highly dependent on those enzymes for metabolism and for which elevated concentrations of certain drugs are associated with serious and/or life-threatening reactions. Paxlovid is also contraindicated with drugs that, conversely, strongly induce those same enzymes, leading to the faster breakdown of nirmatrelvir or ritonavir, as reduced concentrations of nirmatrelvir or ritonavir may be associated with potentially losing virologic response and developing viral resistance. Paxlovid cannot be started immediately after discontinuing such medications ["washout period"] because the effects [half-life] of those medications remain after discontinuation. For a complete list of drugs that should not be taken in combination with Paxlovid, see the fact sheet for healthcare providers.

Paxlovid is not recommended in patients with severe kidney or severe liver impairment. In patients with moderate renal impairment, a reduced Paxlovid dose is needed. Patients with kidney or liver problems should discuss with their healthcare provider whether Paxlovid is right for them.

ostensibly eliminating everyone "living with" diabetes mellitus. neato.
by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 07:23:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
France says it's canceled Merck COVID-19 antiviral treatment order
Speaking to French news outlet BFM TV, the country's health minister, Olivier Véran, said that "the latest studies weren't good" and that the country hoped by the end of January to get Pfizer's Paxlovid™ antiviral treatment instead, according to Reuters. No costs will be incurred due to the cancellation, according to Véran, per the wire service.
uh oh
The data released in late November lowered expectations for the effectiveness of the COVID-19 antiviral treatment Merck developed alongside Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, called molnupiravir. While earlier data released by Merck had suggested the treatment reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 50 percent, more data released last month following a clinical trial with high-risk individuals adjusted those expectations, indicating that it reduced the risk by only 30 percent.
archived Fri Nov 12th, 2021, Sat Dec 4th, 2021
by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 11:46:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Israel to Receive Tens of Thousands of Doses of Paxlovid, Pfizer's COVID-19 Pill, purchase orders and price points; contraindicated prescription of EUA competitive medication, molnupiravir, by "comorbidity" as is the custom.
age over 60 years, active cancer, chronic kidney disease, COPD, obesity, diabetes or serious heart conditions such as heart failure and coronary artery disease
or ~ 60% of US population, excluding controlled or diagnosed HIV-1 cases.
by Cat on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 02:45:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US adds Merck[-Ridgeback] pill as 2nd ["]easy-to-use drug["]* against COVID-19
Pfizer[-BioNTech]'s pill, Paxlovid, is likely to become the first-choice treatment against the virus, thanks to its superior benefits and milder side effects.
< wipes tears > restrictions as to Reasons®
The U.S. will pay about $700 for each course of Merck[-Ridgeback]'s drug, which requires patients to take four pills twice a day for five days. A review by Harvard University and King's College London estimated it costs about $18 to make each 40-pill course of treatment.
The Merck[-Ridgeback] drug will carry a warning against use during pregnancy.
molnupiravir should not be used in patients under age 18 because it may affect bone and cartilage growth [?].
< wipes tears > slide rule efficacy, Q, V, price points, common "adverse events" (AEs)
Pfizer's pill works differently than Merck's and doesn't carry the same risks. Additionally, Pfizer's drug was ["]roughly three times more["] effective in testing, reducing hospitalization and death by nearly 90% [?!] among high-risk patients, compared with 30% for Merck's.
Federal officials have agreed to purchase enough of [molnupiravir] to treat 3.1 million people. ...The U.S. will pay about $700 for each course of Merck's drug, which requires patients to take four pills twice a day for five days. A review by Harvard University and King's College London estimated it costs about $18 to make each 40-pill [!] course of treatment.
* ie. oral not injectable (sub-cut, intra-musc, or IV d/b/a "infusion" of the body bag)
by Cat on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 04:26:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 11:27:52 AM EST

Cases in the last 7 days:  1,017,780

Number of new cases Dec 20: 143,530

Currently active cases: 10,511,784

Projection of deaths in active cases: 210,235

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 04:38:37 PM EST
Comment by Biden in the debate:
Democratic White House hopeful Joe Biden said Thursday during his final debate with President Donald Trump that presiding over the nation as 220,000 Americans died from the coronavirus should disqualify Trump from reelection.

"Anyone who's responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the United States of America," Biden said in the opening remarks of the showdown that comes just 12 days before the election.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 04:42:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Conservatives and other ignorant hicks are actively fighting prevention measures.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 04:46:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump's Actions and Non-Actions are laid out here:

Select Subcommittee's Year-End Staff Report Highlights Oversight Work, Releases New Findings from Ongoing Investigations

Bullet Points:

  •  Then-President Trump held a meeting at the White House with a "fringe group" that advocated for a dangerous herd immunity strategy embraced by then-White House Special Advisor Dr. Scott Atlas.

  •  Dr. Birx and former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Principal Deputy Director Dr. Anne Schuchat detailed a series of early missteps that contributed to the Trump Administration's ineffectual coronavirus response.

  •  The Trump White House intentionally "softened" CDC's public health guidance for faith communities.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 04:54:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a 2% case mortality rate. Is it really that high?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 05:34:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2% is the most common, as "measured" (sic) by number of days.  In the US the death rate has been as high as 8% and as low as 1%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 05:57:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Quite likely considering most deaths are un-vaxxed.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 10:49:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 03:42:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"knowledge management" as it happened 22 Dec 2021

by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 01:24:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Flawed Science of Antibody Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Immunity, JAMA, 21 Oct 2021
The SARS-CoV-2 serology tests that eventually received FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) have demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity, but that accuracy is for detecting antibodies. Their ability to predict protection against the virus based on those antibodies hasn't been proven. Plus, the FDA cautioned that some tests detect antibodies the immune system likely produces only after natural infection with the virus. Depending on the assay, people who weren't previously infected could test negative for antibodies despite having vaccine-induced immunity.

Therefore, the agency in its May 19 communication stated that "results from currently authorized SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests should not be used to evaluate a person's level of immunity or protection from COVID-19 at any time, and especially after the person received a COVID-19 vaccination."

FDA finds 3 COVID-19 tests that fail to detect the omicron variant, 16 Dec 2021
The agency on Wednesday updated its list of tests impacted by virus mutations. While FDA continues to gather additional information and work with the three manufacturers to address these issues, it recommended the diagnostics not be used by clinical laboratory staff and healthcare providers.
by Cat on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 06:50:15 PM EST
The struggle between authoritative figures to rationalize GAPS in virology, bio statistical models, and both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions in activites of daily life (ADLs) purporting TIA based on COVID antibody test frequency and accuracy (medical surveillance") continues.

'This was the moment': CDC defends altered guidance amid Omicron surge

The multi-part defense from Walensky -- who appeared on at least five TV networks on Wednesday morning -- comes as the Biden administration has begun instituting new guidance and considering further restrictions to curb an EXPLOSION of U.S. coronavirus cases caused by the Omicron variant.
"We have seen relatively low rates of isolation for all of this pandemic. Some science has demonstrated less than a third [?!] of people are isolating when they need to," Walensky told CNN.
"In the context of the fact that we were going to have so many more cases -- many of those would be asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic -- people would feel well enough to be at work, they would not necessarily tolerate being home ["self-isolation," "social distancing," "quarantine"], and that they may not comply with being home, this was the moment that we needed to make that decision," Walensky told CNN.
"It's frankly reckless to proceed like this," Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, told The Associated Press on Tuesday. "Using a rapid test or some type of test to validate that the person isn't infectious [sic] is vital."
As for the more accurate Covid-19 [RT-]PCR tests RNA sequence assays -- which use real-time polymerase chain reaction technology and generally take hours to produce results -- Walensky said they were not included in the new CDC guidance because they can show positive results up to 12 weeks after initial infection.

"That is not going to be helpful," Walensky told NBC. "You're not going to be transmitting during all of that period of time."

memorable quote
"We do know that the some rapid antigen tests may not perform as well as it had for prior variants -- the Alpha variant and the Delta variant -- but it's still picking up quite a bit of infection," Walensky said.
selecting the correct tool for the job: isolating emergence and frequency of SARS-CoV-2 variants
FDA: Antigen tests may have reduced sensitivity detecting Omicron
SARS-CoV-2 Viral Mutations: Impact on COVID-19 Tests, Content current as of 12/28/2021
On September 23, 2021, the FDA revised the EUAs of certain authorized molecular, antigen, and serology tests to establish additional Conditions of Authorization in response to the continued emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2. [...] These conditions require test developers to update their authorized labeling and evaluate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 viral mutations on their test's performance, among other things.
from laboratory "controlled" to "live" samples
RADx recently performed preliminary studies evaluating the performance of some antigen tests using patient samples containing live virus, which represents the best way to evaluate true test performance in the short-term. Early data suggests that antigen tests do detect the omicron variant but may have reduced sensitivity.

Prior to completing these live virus tests, RADx conducted initial laboratory tests using heat-inactivated [wtaf] samples for some of the currently available antigen tests, which were able to detect the omicron variant, with similar performance when detecting other variants. Heat-inactivated samples are patient samples with omicron variant that have been heat-treated so that the virus is no longer ["]live["]. Heat-inactivated samples are the best available option when patient samples with live virus are not available.

Tests with Detection Patterns that May Be Associated with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant (As of 12/22/2021)
The detection pattern, showing the drop out, or failure of the affected target, may help to signal the presence of the omicron variant in a patient sample with a positive result so that sequencing can be considered to characterize the variant.

Potential Impact Sampling Errors: Since these tests are designed to detect multiple genetic targets, the overall test sensitivity should not be impacted. The pattern of SARS-CoV-2 detection with one gene drop out may provide a signal that the omicron variant may be present so that sequencing can be considered to characterize the variant. However, testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 with one of these tests does not mean an individual is infected with the omicron variant. Further, not all patient samples with the omicron variant display a mutation that leads to a gene drop out. Therefore, the omicron variant may still be present without a gene drop out detection pattern.

supra "The Flawed Science of Antibody Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Immunity," JAMA, 21 Oct 2021
by Cat on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 11:40:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This evening I got my booster vaccination. The health agency had decided for all age 60+ there would be no individual choice ... GGD policy decided a Moderna booster shot. Due to a blood clotting disorder I had a strong preference to continue with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Her reaction, there was no way to deviate from set policy. Yeah, I know all about Covid-19 policy set by Hugo de Jong and Mark Rutte. The Pfizer vaccine would now be used for healthcare workers. I reacted by reminding her these were vaccinated with AstraZeneca before which had poor protection today and against the new variant. After a brief discussion I asked her the quickest way to the exit. I was fairly protected to the Delta virus and would have to  be careful anyway not to be infected by the Omicron variant. 😷

In the end she suggested to wait 90 min. until closure, if there were extra Pfizer jabs left, there would be a possibility. I had to get permission from higher up. In the end I was given permission to change to Pfizer due to medical indication.  Much appreciated, after the jab I took a shortcut to the exit and by-passed a very crowded recovery area for a 15 min. observation for side effects. Fresh air and a forty minutes bike ride home didn't disappoint. Feeling fine and resting a bit.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 09:07:55 PM EST
Got my booster on Monday. Moderna. My first dose was Pfizer, but they are saving that to vaccinate children : they are finally rolling out for ages 5-12 at last (a bit late to save Christmas, but never mind), I suppose because the number of school closures is getting too high.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 04:31:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Dec 21st, 2021 at 10:03:07 PM EST
Israel recommending 4th vaccination for over 60s.
by asdf on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 12:07:59 AM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 12:09:25 AM EST
The authors' affiliations strongly point to manufacturer confirmation bias. Similarly, Sputnik today launched a different "study by a [unnamed] group of scientists from the United States" that also depicts estimated SARS-cOv-2 "neutralization" over time to illustrate an identical conclusion. The only clue to the study identity is pre-print publisher and pull-quotes from the abstract.

Edara et al., "mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines have reduced neutralizing activity against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant"

These findings show that a 3rd dose is required to provide robust neutralizing antibody responses against the Omicron variant.

Competing Interest Statement
M.S.S serves on the advisory board for Moderna. NR institution receives funding from Pfizer, Quidel, Lilly, Merck and Sanofi Pasteur for research studies. NR serves as a safety consultant for ICON and EMMES

All well and good for some; an intriguing contradiction in terms to others. Further investigation of bioRxIv library of pre-print printed stories about ahh robust waning "protection" from SARS-CoV-2 infection ensues.

I ask myself, "SELF, what have the academics been up to?" and have been rewarded with finely detailed, systematic molecular description of S1, S2 receptor binding domains that have posed--from "pre-alpha" alias "Victoria"--ambivalent affinity for ACE2 dependent mRNA stimulants which have generated an undesirable ADE dead-end AKA omicron variant and fresh research into stimulating NDT, CDT mechanisms of action in order to predict spike protein NTD mutations of SARS-CoV-2 causing immune escape before cooking up the next "booster". For my own edjumacation, I present for comment:

Dejnirattisai et al., "Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from [synthetic and autogenetic] neutralizing antibody responses, 3 Dec 2021

In this report, we study the neutralization of Omicron by a large panel of sera collected from convalescent early pandemic, [Wuhan, Victoria,] Alpha, Beta, Gamma[, Lambda,] and Delta infected individuals, together with vaccinees receiving three doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca (AZD1222) or the Pfizer BioNtech (BNT16b2) vaccines. There is widespread reduction in the neutralization activity of serum from multiple sources and we use these data to plot an antigenic map where Omicron is seen to occupy the most distant position from early pandemic viruses which form the basis for current vaccines.

The illustrations of SARS-CoV-2 molecular formations and RNA strands are top-notch, instructive, and welcomed relief from the cartoon depictions of this year's dread coronavirus.

by Cat on Fri Dec 24th, 2021 at 06:30:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 02:49:58 PM EST
New Study: Breakthrough Infections Generate "Super Immunity" to COVID-19

COVID-19 vaccination provides a foundation of protection that's enhanced by breakthrough infection; `the key is to get vaccinated.'

Breakthrough infections greatly enhance immune response to variants of the virus that causes COVID-19, according to a newly published study from Oregon Health & Science University.

The laboratory results, published online ahead of print in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), reveals that a breakthrough infection generates a robust immune response against the delta variant. Authors say the findings suggest the immune response is likely to be highly effective against other variants as the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to mutate.

The study found that antibodies measured in blood samples of breakthrough cases were both more abundant and much more effective.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 02:50:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 03:25:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'ENORMOUS spread of omicron' may bring 140 MILLION new COVID infections to US in the next two months, MODEL PREDICTS
Researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine revised its COVID-19st modeling to include updated information about the omicron variant.
While meta-analyses have suggested previous variants cause about 40% of cases to be asymptomatic, [IHME director Dr. Chris] Murray said more than 90% of people infected with omicron may never show symptoms.
fruit of the std deviation tree
Researchers estimate that out of the millions of projected new daily infections, only about 400,000 cases may be reported, as most Americans infected with the virus won't feel sick and may never get tested [for COVID-19, influenza, bacterial or viral pneumonia, TB, etc]. At the peak of last year's winter SURGE in January, the country was reporting a little over 250,000 new cases [OF WHAT?] per day.

supra It's embarrassing
by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 10:27:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
While infections are expected to skyrocket, the IHME model shows hospitalizations and deaths will be about the same. Researchers found the infection-hospitalization rate of omicron is about 90% to 96% lower than delta, and the infection-fatality rate is about 97% to 99% lower.
archived What this means, I believe, is US mortality is not rising at the same rate as SARS-CoV-2 δ infection ...
"In the past, we roughly thought that COVID was 10 times worse than flu and now we have a variant that is probably at least 10 times less severe," Murray said. "So, omicron will probably ... be less severe than flu but much more transmissible."
until further notice
by Cat on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 10:37:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Amsterdam the majority of infections is the Omicron variant ... South Africa does a better job of sequencing than the Netherlands!

In Belgium there is no lockdown, great satisfaction with early booster shots for age group 60+ -- 80% have been vaccinated already.

Where the Danes and English keep a close eye on Omicron, in the Netherlands it only succeeds in Amsterdam.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 07:20:59 PM EST
'We are not going to a lockdown' | Brussels Times |

De Croo pointed to the difference with the situation last year. "A year ago, bars and shops were closed. Hairdressers were closed. We could hardly even see each other.

Those things will be possible this year. But I cannot stress this enough. Please, take the necessary precautions: limit the number of guests, do a self-test, and ventilate as much as possible."

De Croo said that the pandemic is not only a health crisis but also an economic and a humanitarian one.

"That is why it is so important that we have seen a lot of solidarity, it has pulled us through. The year is ending more difficult than we had hoped this summer, but I am convinced that we will get through it. I wish you good end-of-year festivities, but please celebrate in a safe way."

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 22nd, 2021 at 07:21:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On Dutch television a leading doctor spoke out of the "deplorable" state of healthcare and monitoring in South Africa causing the rise of variants. How very ugly and dumb can one be calling himself a "scientist" and earning bucks in his/her profession.

Omicron in South Africa: The Latest News | John Hopkins Review |

This variant was first recognized in South Africa. How did that happen?

GG: It was identified in an area near Johannesburg and Pretoria. A private laboratory that does PCR testing picked up on one of the tests an "S-gene target failure"--an anomaly in their testing strategy. This continued in several tests. They notified the virologists who do surveillance in our country and sent the samples for sequencing, [which revealed] a lot of mutations and deletions.

The new variant came as a surprise, and over a two-week period, we saw it rapidly become the predominant variant circulating in the Gauteng area. Initially, we thought it was a breakout amongst university students, but community transmission fueled the wave in South Africa.

What does this say about South Africa's capacity for identifying a signal and then being able to investigate?

CB: We are all deeply in the debt of the South African scientists and public health system for identifying this early. In pandemics, time really matters. There's been a long-standing collaborative investment-- principally around HIV, but also TB and other conditions--in laboratory infrastructure that has made South Africa a critical scientific partner in research and vaccine trials. Their ability to do molecular surveillance, pick up new variants of COVID, sequence them, and understand at a population level the emerging epidemiology, is critically important.

What have you learned since the identification? What kind of surveillance, monitoring, and understanding has resulted?

GG: The first time the virologists looked at the new variant, they were horrified [by] its mutations. There was concern about how this virus works against the vaccines that we have. The scientists raised the alarm to alert our country, our president, and minister of health that there was a new variant, and publicly shared this with WHO and the international community.

We have teams [conducting] hospital and genetic surveillance, teams monitoring vaccine effectiveness, and teams modeling the reproductive rate. We've all worked together to answer questions for South Africa and the global community. We've held regular meetings with the NIH to give them up-to-date information. We've rapidly worked to establish vaccine effectiveness, and whether to bring in boosters earlier and more frequently.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 09:52:31 AM EST
South Africa's decline in new COVID-19 cases may indicate omicron peak has passed

Some health officials in New York have suggested that because South Africa appears to have experienced a quick, mild wave of omicron, the variant may behave similarly there and elsewhere in the U.S. But Nunes cautions against jumping to those conclusions.

"Each setting, each country is different. The populations are different. The demographics of the population, the immunity is different in different countries," she said. South Africa's population, with an average age of 27, is more youthful than many Western countries, for instance.

Most of the patients currently being treated for COVID-19 in hospitals are unvaccinated, Uekermann emphasized. About 40 percent of adult South Africans have been inoculated with two doses.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 09:53:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Just like any virus when leaving a backdoor open ...

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 09:54:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One area in rural Colorado is at 170 per 100,000, and Omicron has barely started here.
by asdf on Sun Dec 26th, 2021 at 04:55:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The thing is that the difference between just started and everyone is infected is about a week. Turns out running an arms race between our immune system and a quadrillion virus generations through five billion people is unwise.
by generic on Sun Dec 26th, 2021 at 05:49:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, the Boeing 707 will be noted in the history books as the machine that allowed people to get from a remote village on one continent to a remote village on another continent in two days. Previous timelines of travel and quarantine reduced by a couple of orders of magnitude.
by asdf on Mon Dec 27th, 2021 at 12:25:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
SARS-CoV-2 a novel coronavirus | DynaMed |

Mortality secondary to COVID-19 is highly variable and related to age, severity of disease, and comorbidities. Estimated mortality is

    0.3%-2.3% for all patients.
    10%-23% for hospitalized patients.
    26%-50% for patients admitted to the ICU.
    37%-88% for patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).

Related reading ...
Genomic epidemiology identifies emergence and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 [Alpha] in the United States | NCBI - Feb. 2021 |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 09:55:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 11:41:09 AM EST
Major issue in province Limburg where festivities continued through 11/11 of November.

Sixth week in a row dark red in The Netherlands ...

About Carnival festivities and Limburg ...

Caretaker minister De Jonge says that he "doesn't want to impose anything", partly because the Outbreak Management Team has not given any advice about it.

Downward trend in COVID-19, while vaccination and previous infection offer significantly less protection against Omicron

Dashboard data city of Maastricht, Limburg

Sharp uptick in virus particles in wastewater Maastricht, first indication Omicron variant taking hold?

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 11:43:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Dec 24th, 2021 at 09:30:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Inside Covid -- Life on the ward: 'He said to me: doctor, am I going to die?'

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 06:45:58 PM EST

Two antiviral medications which can be used to treat an infection of the coronavirus at an early stage will be available in the Netherlands in January at the earliest. The two drugs are Paxlovid, made by Pfizer, and Molnupiravir, which is manufactured in Haarlem by MSD.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Dec 23rd, 2021 at 09:49:08 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Dec 24th, 2021 at 08:31:46 AM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Dec 24th, 2021 at 08:39:47 AM EST
archived Sat Nov 27th, 2021

24 Dec, US to lift travel restrictions on eight African countries

The Biden administration announced the restrictions on South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi last month ["]to try and tame the spread["] of the omicron variant. The highly mutated strain has since spread to a number of countries across the globe, including every state[?!] in the U.S.
More than 3000 flights canceled worldwide as airlines cite COVID-19 staffing issues
White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci said earlier this week that large gatherings this holiday season are not safe from the coronavirus, even for those fully vaccinated with a booster shot. He also warned that that Christmas travel would increase the spread of the variant even among the fully vaccinated ["with a booster shot"], the BBC reported.
archived 27 days and back again, Mon Dec 6th, 2021
by Cat on Fri Dec 24th, 2021 at 02:54:35 PM EST
DW | FIRST Omicron death [with, from, while]
We don't know the gender. And the data also doesn't make it clear if this was a SUSPECTED omicron case, or it was certainly shown to be present. So a PCR test was done, but it may not have been, the virus may not have been, actually sequenced. But what we can say is, this patient died WHILE suspected to have omicron.
by Cat on Fri Dec 24th, 2021 at 02:59:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NY Yella Cake | Booster protection wanes against symptomatic Omicron infections, [UKHSA] data suggests.
New data from Britain suggests that booster protection against symptomatic Covid caused by the Omicron variant wanes within 10 weeks.
The population reinfection rate has increased sharply and disproportionately to the number of first infections. 9.5% of Omicron infections have been identified to have previous confirmed infections, which is likely to be a substantial underestimate of the proportion of reinfections. The first infections of the individuals with Omicron reinfections occurred in both the Alpha and Delta waves and are likely to have been undetected if in the first wave.
There were 69 identified cases with Omicron as a third episode of infection and 290 cases where the Omicron infection was between a 60 to 89 day interval after a confirmed first infection.
There have not yet been enough severe cases of Omicron to calculate how well boosters protect against severe disease, but experts believe the shots will continue to provide significant protection against hospitalization and death.
Times of Israel | UK agency: Pfizer booster's ability to prevent symptomatic COVID wanes within weeks
Data shows 3rd shot 70% effective in preventing illness after 2 weeks but only 45% after 10 weeks; Moderna seems to offer more durable protection, staying at 70% after 10 weeks
Reacting to the findings, Jenny Harries, head of the UKHSA, said boosters were still very important and would help prevent severe cases and deaths.
by Cat on Sun Dec 26th, 2021 at 07:24:04 PM EST
Jerusalem Post reprint
'Israel could be completely unprotected against COVID-19 in a month' - report
"As a result, the team - along with the COVID-19 Vaccination Advisory Board - voted to allow the country's highest risk population to receive a fourth shot of the Pfizer COVID vaccine, sparking controversy in Israel and around the world."
by Cat on Sun Dec 26th, 2021 at 07:28:11 PM EST
Waning Immunity after the BNT162b2 Vaccine in Israel | New England Journal - Dec. 9, 2021 |

Why did Israel's COVID-19 team recommend a 4th vaccine? A member explains | JPost - Dec. 22, 2021 |

If it wasn't for the threat represented by Omicron, Dagan said, the situation would have probably not required such a fast decision about the fourth shot, but some characteristics of the new variant compelled them to act.

"The neutralizing capacity of antibodies against Omicron is much lower than against Delta," he noted. "If after three shots, the level of protection against Delta is around 95%, with Omicron it already decreases to around 75%, and if it goes further down because more time has passed, it can be a problem.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Dec 26th, 2021 at 10:25:57 PM EST
Pfizer antiviral pill could be risky with other widely used medications
"Some of these potential interactions are not trivial, and some pairings have to be avoided altogether," Peter Anderson, a professor of pharmaceutical sciences at the University of Colorado told NBC News.
In a statement to The Hill, a Pfizer spokesperson said, "The potential for drug-drug interactions (DDI) for Paxlovid was examined in a series of in vitro studies, as well as clinical DDI studies [AKA adverse events (AEs) AKA adverse drug reactions (ADRs)]."
WHICH clinical studies of WHICH drugs and WHICH study criteria--latitudinal, longitudinal, medical history, "end-points," sample size, etc?
The spokesperson further elaborated on the antiviral pill and said that Paxlovid is comprised of the active  protease inhibitor Nirmatrelvir [total mg p.d.?], as well as a low-dose of 100 mg of Ritonavir [total mg p.d.?].  

"Its effect on drug metabolism may result in drug interactions, and some drugs may be contra-indicated. However, in light of the fact that Paxlovid has a short duration of treatment of five days [Rx "course" ≠ active ingredient half-life], combined with a low dose of Ritonavir of 100 milligrams, we believe that healthcare professionals [sic; s/b patients] should find most DDIs to be generally manageable ["tolerable"]," the statement reads.

supra ya think
immunomodulating industry; half-life, wash-out period
by Cat on Mon Dec 27th, 2021 at 04:46:49 PM EST
Thu May 7th, 2020
"commonly prescribed" corticosteroids, *mabs, *ides, *ates, and ACE, ACE2 inhibitors

scantily clad, authoritative DDI reference

by Cat on Mon Dec 27th, 2021 at 04:57:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 04:10:32 AM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 05:03:37 AM EST
The evidential significance of thought experiment in science ... from one theory to the next.

Robin Fransman, Covid-19 sceptic and prominent anti-vaxxer died today due to the virus infection. Has not lived to see his hypothesis proved him wrong ... perhaps it was more an assumption.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 11:38:06 AM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 07:16:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Covid News: US Daily Record for Cases Is Broken

United States has broken a record for average daily infections, according to the The New York Times, which reported 267,000 fresh Covid cases in the country.

It comes after the hard-hit country decided to shorten the recommended Covid-19 isolation and quarantine period from 10 days to five, drawing criticism from some medical experts who said it could create more confusion and fear among Americans.

"The previous US daily cases record was set on January 11, 2021 when the seven-day average was 251,232," Times reported, adding Mid-Atlantic areas like Washington, Maryland and Virginia broke records for daily cases a day ago.

Tracking coronavirus vaccinations and outbreaks in the U.S. | Reuters |

WHO warns of Omicron overload as France reports record of nearly 180,000 Covid cases

France reported a record high of 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period on Tuesday, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.

The previous record of 104,611 was set on Saturday. 

Omicron could overwhelm health systems as cases rise to record highs in Europe

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 12:56:43 PM EST
Because the Netherlands misjudged and were late in organizing the booster jab campaign, they needed to go into lockdown during the last three weeks of December ... the most effective method to mitigate the spread of the new Omicron variant 😄

Self explanatory graph of infections per age group and the Covid-19 waves in the nation ... clearly visible the foolish easing in June and extreme Summer surge in July.

The Christmas days and large family gathering will cause a rise in Omicron cases in coming weeks. Already the age group 20-29 has broken the downward trend of the lockdown.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 12:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, the obvious reaction to the discovery of the Omicron variant was to introduce a two week quarantine on flights and a lockdown over the whole continent. Instead we got an industrial-strength gaslighting campaign and are going to let the virus ran completely unchecked.

Austria also had a bit of fortunate timing since were in what they call a lockdown these days. Our government also had mishandled the Delta wave something fierce. But that piece of good luck amid the massive failure seems to be over. Cases had a pretty big jump today and the reasonable assumption is that they will continue to rise tomorrow. Going to get a last round of in person events in before I crawl back into the pandemic bunker.

by generic on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 01:55:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah ... don't let the virus stop you from having fun in the Alps or shopping in Aachen, or Cologne or Antwerp ... if needed for safe destinations one can fly to Vienna or cross the non-existent Schengen border to get boosted in Northern France ... entrepreneurial spirit of the Dutch.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 02:56:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I do enjoy the story arc from panic on the 23rd(?) of November, a full month of "it's mild and might even end the pandemic" to:

Even if turns aren't all that surprising if you are paying attention.
by generic on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 04:05:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
retrieved 29 Dec 2021 EST

COVID-19 Statistics a/o 27 Dec 2021, retrieved 29 Dec 2021

TRACKING SARS-COV-2 VARIANTS, "SARS-CoV-2 Sequencing Update (24 Dec 2021)", 33 pp


The most infectious period is thought to be 1 to 3 days before symptoms start, and in the first 7 days after symptoms begin. But some people may remain infectious for longer and this is because typically with viruses, the higher the viral load (the more virus circulating in the body), the higher the risk of transmission through known transmission pathways. So the more severe the illness and the higher the viral load, the longer you continue to shed the virus and are infectious.

If someone with mild disease has been symptom-free for 3 days and they developed their first symptoms more than 10 days prior, they are no longer considered to be infectious.
If a worker has been diagnosed with COVID-19 and isolated in accordance with the guidelines, an employer may only allow a worker to return to work on the following conditions:

  • The worker has completed the mandatory 10 days of self-isolation;
  • The worker may need to undergo a medical evaluation confirming fitness to work.
  • The worker on returning to work then needs to wear a surgical mask for 21 days from the positive test result while at work and practices social distancing and good respiratory and hand hygiene.

archived exceptional "confusion, doubts" 2 days ago

by Cat on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 07:17:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 03:01:30 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 03:02:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Total cases: 54,148,544

Total active cases:  11,981,273

Total Deaths: 842,161

Total number of new cases Dec 28:  312,939 - a new record.  Previous biggest number of new cases in one day was Jan 8, 2021 with 306,307

Total number of new cases in last 7 days: 1,865,938

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 04:37:19 PM EST

Quite advanced healthcare still did not prevent a surge of Covid-19 in Denmark. Amazing.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 06:22:37 PM EST
High technology country, with Dutch arrogance brags about sequencing ... Menno de Jong of AMC mentioned taking 200 samples per week in Amsterdam.  Due to the Omicron variant this has not been increased to 200 per day.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 06:24:47 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Dec 31st, 2021 at 11:50:41 PM EST
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Amsterdam established a daily record with 1380 cases

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Fri Dec 31st, 2021 at 11:57:45 PM EST
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In recent weeks, the infected are younger and with Omicron the hospital stay is shorter in number of days. There is sufficient space, however the ICU's are overflowing due to the higher number of overall cases. The normal surgeries have been postponed causing health issues and deaths. Urgent need for specialized care at ICU beds, many have left the profession and many are absent due to illness and burn-outs. For two years, policy has been lacking to fix problem. Incompetent managers and funding ... decision-making slow due to polder culture.

No need to panic, but NL really should be doing more to curb coronavirus | Dutch News - Oct. 20, 2021 |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 06:26:25 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 06:27:16 PM EST
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'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 11:16:18 PM EST
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More progressive policy in Belgium to battle Covid-19 ...

Freedom not deserved by Dutch shoppers who prefer fun and large events.

No dear spoiled brats, the carers want some rest and take a short break.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 07:38:06 PM EST
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Dec 29th, 2021 at 07:39:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unvaccinated at 15% of Dutch population block ALL ICU beds for critical care and operations. Unacceptable ... recover at home with a bottle of oxygen. The Almighty will come for you the soonest.

It's not rocket science.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Fri Dec 31st, 2021 at 02:59:43 PM EST
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What this means, I believe, is US mortality is not rising at the same rate as SARS-CoV-2 ο infection.

archived 27 July 2021

by Cat on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 12:29:03 AM EST
Total cases: 54,687,298

Total active cases:  12,431,357

Total Deaths: 844,496

Total number of new cases: 465,670, up from 130,633 from previous day.

Total number of new cases in last 7 days: 2,133,913

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 06:45:57 PM EST
China seems to be implementing a fairly light set of restrictions in the face of omicron. Possible imminent catastrophe? Example of Chinese government not exercising the iron fist of communist authority on its people, as would be consistent with western propaganda?
by asdf on Fri Dec 31st, 2021 at 05:12:28 PM EST
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Dec 31st, 2021 at 05:46:14 PM EST
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New Covid infections is very low in China: 1,443 in the previous 7 days and 670 in the 7 days before that. Internal controls are light.  Rules for arriving travelers are strict: a recent negative Covid test to get on the plane and then a 14 to 21 day quarantine upon arrival.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jan 2nd, 2022 at 04:36:40 PM EST
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