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Delta Wave Compared to Omicron #gauteng SA

by Oui Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 03:01:07 PM EST

Vaccination Effectiveness Omicron #gauteng SA


Translation:

    #Gauteng #SouthAfrica
    Two doses of Pfizer #COVID19 vaccine are 50-70% effective against hospitalization caused by variant #omicron

Excellent review of status Covid-19 infection and hospitalization in South Africa - #gauteng.

Does omicron cause less serious disease than delta and will omicron waves be shorter in duration than delta waves?

South African and UK hospitalisation data: What it tells us about how deadly omicron is

Recent official South African medical reports and countrywide novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) data  have indicated that since early November, when omicron was first detected, COVID-19 cases substantially increased. However, most patients had, at worst, mild symptoms, and cases are now in steep decline. These observations substantially differ from the previous waves, including those attributed to the delta variant.

Reporters also stated that even though vaccinated and unvaccinated people developed the disease in roughly equal numbers, most hospitalised patients were unvaccinated. And although the current South African COVID-19 wave may be coming to an end, South Africa's omicron wave experiences may follow very similar patterns in other countries.

In contrast to this relatively encouraging news, some recent tweets and localised reports suggest that some hospitals in South Africa have experienced - or are experiencing - increasing numbers of hospitalised patients, with increasing numbers of patients requiring treatment in intensive care units and needing mechanical ventilation - a key indicator of severe COVID-19.

....
A review of official South African COVID-19 countrywide figures from 1 Dec. 2021 to 21 Dec. 2021 shows new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million population rose dramatically from 63 to 303 (a 380% increase), while total deaths only rose from 0.466 to 0.583, (a 25% increase). At the same time, the rate at which all COVID-19 infections were estimated to spread (the R rate) steadily decreased to around 54% of the Dec. 1 value.

PS Just as now seen in The Netherlands, the severity of number of cases is on par with previous waves of patients on ventilators. The duration of normal treatment in a hospital is much less.

Rapid tests do not perform sufficiently reliable for the Omicron variant ...

Omicron Variant: Impact on Antigen Diagnostic Tests

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 | Nature Medicine - updated Aug. 2020 |

We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 30-57%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases' presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission.

Quantifying the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness | eLive - 2021 |

After more than 18 months of an unprecedented pandemic, some key aspects of virus transmission remain poorly understood. While respiratory droplets and aerosols have rapidly been demonstrated as a major route of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (Tang et al., 2020), the role of the viral load as a driver of infectiousness has been established (He et al., 2020) but not quantified. This lack of evidence is due to the fact that high-risk contacts occur mostly before the index has been diagnosed, with no information on the viral load level at the time of the contact. The relationship between viral load and infectiousness determines the timing of transmission, the inter-individual heterogeneity in transmission, and ultimately the impact of interventions (contact, case isolation, vaccination) on transmission. In the context of variants of concern, that are associated with larger viral loads (Teyssou et al., 2021; Liu et al., 2021; Elie et al., 2021; Cosentino et al., 2021; Jones et al., 2021), it becomes even more critical to delineate the contribution of viral load from other factors associated with an increased transmission. Further, as antiviral drugs and vaccine strategies are being implemented, that dramatically reduce the amount of viral shedding (Levine-Tiefenbrun et al., 2021), it is essential to understand how they may contribute to a reduction in virus transmission.

One of the most documented clinical study to address the question of viral load and infectiousness has been obtained through individuals included in a randomised controlled trial conducted in March-April 2020 in Spain, that aimed to assess the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine on SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Mitjà et al., 2021; Marks et al., 2021). Overall, 282 index and their 753 high-risk contacts were frequently monitored to assess their virological and clinical evolution. An association was found between the probability of being infected after a high-risk contact and the viral load measured at the time of diagnosis in the index case (Marks et al., 2021). This suggests that viral load is associated with transmission; however, it does not quantify the role of viral load in disease transmission, as the viral load at the exact time of the contact remains unknown and may greatly differ from that measured, several days later, at the time of diagnosis.

Understanding the drivers of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 | The Lancet - Feb. 2, 2021 |

Marks and colleagues found that the viral load of the index case was strongly associated with the risk of onward transmission (adjusted odds ratio per log10 increase in viral load 1·3, 95% CI 1·1-1·6) and that this risk was higher for household contacts (2·7, 1·4-5·06) than for other types of contact (health-care worker, nursing home worker, or nursing home resident). Additionally, they found a small, but significant, effect for age of the contact person, with older individuals being more at risk of becoming infected. Because the included population of both index cases and contacts consisted mainly of adults aged 27-57 years, more important age effects, such as those for children, might have been difficult to identify.

We can't vaccinate our way out of the Covid-19 pandemic

Let'r fly as in herd immunization clearly makes the pandemic worse for the population and business ...

The UK and Boris Johnson is following the Trump era "science" of feel good ...

Boris and the wrecking ball to destroy healthcare and the NHS ... when politics gets in the way of personal well-being, health and medical advice.

Taking the words of Donald Rumsfeld ... last throes of Boris

Last jump to safety by Boris ...

Dad's Army ...

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by Oui on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 06:51:51 PM EST
by Oui on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 06:55:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 06:56:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Of course England is running out of Covid tests - the strategy is a flawed one

by Oui on Thu Dec 30th, 2021 at 06:57:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

South Africa has lifted a nightime curfew on people's movement with immediate effect, believing the country has passed the peak of its fourth coronavirus wave driven by the Omicron variant.

As the head of the World Health Organization sounded an optimistic note about beating the pandemic in 2022, the government in Pretoria removed the midnight-to-4am curfew based on the trajectory of the pandemic, vaccination levels and available capacity in the health sector.

Data from South Africa's health department showed a 29.7% weekly decrease in new cases detected in the week ending 25 December, the government said. Hospital admissions have declined in eight of South Africa's nine provinces.

South Africa, with close to 3.5 million infections and 91,000 deaths, has been the worst-hit country in Africa during the pandemic on both counts, and was where the Omicron variant of the coronavirus was first detected last month.

by Oui on Fri Dec 31st, 2021 at 09:14:11 AM EST

Immunogenicity of Ad26.COV2.S vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 variants in humans | Nature - June 2021 |

by Oui on Fri Dec 31st, 2021 at 03:00:59 PM EST
by Oui on Sat Jan 1st, 2022 at 02:38:28 AM EST
by Oui on Sat Jan 1st, 2022 at 09:11:30 AM EST

In the United States, since all adults were eligible for vaccination in April, there have been nearly 1,000 deaths a day, <<90% among unvaccinated people

Plus updated fatality rates by state vaccination % @nytgraphics

by Oui on Sat Jan 1st, 2022 at 09:13:20 AM EST
Across 20 Countries and 4 Continents travel of Omicron for global dominance

by Oui on Sat Jan 1st, 2022 at 09:14:11 AM EST

Just mid-December ...

UK Health Coronavirus (Covid-19) Dashboard

by Oui on Sat Jan 1st, 2022 at 09:15:38 AM EST
by Oui on Sat Jan 1st, 2022 at 09:16:51 AM EST

Today science and knowledge are as heresy from the Dark Ages of Western Europe.

Europe entered the Dark Ages (476 to 1453), a Catholic-dominated era when, to quote Voltaire, "barbarism, superstition and ignorance covered the face of the world"

by Oui on Sat Jan 1st, 2022 at 04:00:33 PM EST
by Oui on Sat Jan 1st, 2022 at 05:33:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hosted by the unvaccinated ...

by Oui on Sat Jan 1st, 2022 at 08:30:04 PM EST
by Oui on Sun Jan 2nd, 2022 at 05:50:54 AM EST

Cuba's bet on home-grown COVID vaccines is paying off | Nature preprint |

by Oui on Sun Jan 2nd, 2022 at 05:52:01 AM EST
by Oui on Sun Jan 2nd, 2022 at 05:52:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Proof?

Meet my friend Yersinia pestis.  It emerged roughly 5,700 to 6,000 years ago on the Mongolian plain.  A simple soul, all it wants to do is get into your body, propagate like crazy, and give you Bubonic Plague.

Or, if bacterial diseases aren't your gig ...........

Good old Lentivirus HIV-1 and Lentivirus HIV-2 are stilling killing people - ~600,000 last year - and still considered by WHO to be "one of the world's most serious public health challenges." And no herd immunity.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jan 2nd, 2022 at 04:25:51 PM EST
by Oui on Mon Jan 3rd, 2022 at 04:07:20 PM EST
Thanking the hosting opportunity in massive crowds anti-vaxxers wanting relief of state mitigation rules ...

by Oui on Mon Jan 3rd, 2022 at 04:08:48 PM EST
Trend reverses to rising ⤴️ ... 23% increase over 1 week

by Oui on Mon Jan 3rd, 2022 at 04:10:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oops ... old chart 😖

by Oui on Tue Jan 4th, 2022 at 10:35:29 PM EST
by Oui on Tue Jan 4th, 2022 at 10:36:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Tue Jan 4th, 2022 at 10:37:09 PM EST
by Oui on Tue Jan 4th, 2022 at 10:38:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui on Tue Jan 4th, 2022 at 10:44:15 PM EST
by Oui on Tue Jan 11th, 2022 at 11:02:19 PM EST


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