Sun Apr 4th, 2021 at 11:08:32 AM EST
One of my thoughtful conservative FB friends thinks the election results in 2020 are a bit of a fluke and that the Republicans will come back strong in '22 and '24. I beg to differ.
The problem for the GOP is that their base remains loyal to Trump, while four years of Trump soured enough voters to cost the GOP the presidency. Under Trump the GOP SHRUNK its base. Meanwhile Trump keeps being Trump and his core support, older white voters, predominantly male, remains strong. That base will deliver him victories in most of the states of the old confederacy along with the plains states from Oklahoma to N. Dakota. Not enough to win the Electoral College.
Worse, Georgia can no longer be counted as solid Republican and Texas is coming into play, both for the Presidency and the House and Senate. If Beto O'Rourke runs against Gregg Abbot for Governor of Texas in '22 he could well win after Abbot's conduct during the blizzard, and Texas could vote Democratic in '24. If that happens and O'Rourke carries at least one house of the legislature with him, and Texas turns blue, not just purple, it is much more likely that Texas would vote for the Democrat for President in '24 and it is game over for the GOP as a national party.
Frontpaged - Frank Schnittger
Three factors will determine the results in '22 and '24.
First will be the economic effect of Biden's budget and his effort against COVID - all of which are staunchly opposed by almost all of the GOP, House and Senate. This opposition is entirely tactical and opportunistic. The Republicans would do much of what Biden is doing if there were a Republican in the White House, (other than Trump.) I believe that enough voters have noticed and will notice to tilt the vote even more to the Democrats both in '22 and '24. Do more voters want to vindicate Trump, or do more prefer the economy and health status the country has achieved under Biden. I like the Democrats chances, but time will tell.
Second will be the success or failure of the GOP's voter suppression efforts. If most of these efforts remain in place they could tip the balance in GA, AZ, and other states with solid Republican control. But by these efforts the GOP is showing that they can only compete when they can choose who gets to vote. The first of these laws just passed in GA and the backlash is setting in. The result could be a Governor Stacy Abrams. Black leaders like Abrans and Wm. Barber have shown the power of solidarity with other ethnicities and Asians, Pacific Islanders and Native Americans have become solidly Democratic and much more active. Again time will tell.
Third, WHO WILL THE REPUBLICANS PICK as their presidential candidate in '24? And will the Republicans again fall in line once the primaries have concluded? Will Marjorie Taylor Green and Lauren Opal Boebert still be in office in '24. Matt Gaetz will likely be in prison - to the relief of most Republicans. And where will Trump be? In prison and/or bankrupt? But most importantly, WHO will the GOP presidential candidate be? I will not even try to guess. But I don't see the entire Republican party, as it was in 2016, ever reemerging.