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Politics Winning the China Wuhan Lab Theory

by Oui Fri Aug 13th, 2021 at 09:59:17 AM EST

After losing Afghanistan, US and Western Allies focus on number one enemy China ... unrelenting propaganda.

Danish 'right-wing' documentary in the news, striking at China once again ...

WHO Expert 'Had Concerns' About Lab Close to 1st COVID Cases | US News - Aug. 12, 2021 |

'Politics was always in the room.' WHO mission chief reflects on China trip seeking COVID-19's origin | ScienceMag - Feb. 14, 2021 |

The World Health Organization (WHO) mission to China to probe the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic had a bumpy start, so it's perhaps no surprise that the team's departure from China didn't go entirely smoothly either. A 9 February press conference in Wuhan to summarize the mission's findings was widely hailed within China, but criticized elsewhere.

During the press conference, WHO program manager and mission leader Peter Ben Embarek [food safety scientist with the UN health agency] and team member Marion Koopmans praised China's cooperation during the 4-week investigation. They said it was "extremely unlikely" that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a Chinese laboratory and said the team would not investigate that hypothesis further. But they kept open the possibility that the virus arrived in Wuhan on frozen food, a route promoted aggressively by Chinese media to suggest the virus was imported from elsewhere in the world.

I put my trust in Marion Koopmans, highly regarded in all of her statements, she has not failed me.

China response on political pressure on WHO virologists in US ...

Western scientists face government probe, death threats for opposing COVID-19 lab-leak theory: source | Global Times |

The statement “politics was always in the room” was covered from the earliest phase of WHO expert discussion and referred to both Chinese delegates and US and British representatives.

Covid-19: pressure mounts for a full, independent investigation into the origin of SARS-CoV-2 | Changing Times - May 2021 |


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Aug 13th, 2021 at 12:59:35 PM EST
Supposedly 90% of population has immunity to virus ...

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Aug 13th, 2021 at 06:53:14 PM EST
...90% of population has immunity to virus

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Aug 19th, 2021 at 02:33:33 PM EST
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RIVM Stats

On vaccinations, the EU-27 countries are likely in better shape than the UK or USA. Lower number of anti-vaxxers helps. Group of age 18+ number of full vaccination is 75% and 85% with single jab. Due to delay in start and delivery of vaccines, protection will last through fall to end of year. Booster shots will be available for the most vulnerable.

In addition, there's likely an overlap due to protection of 1,9 million COVID-19 cases.

ECDC vaccine tracker

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Aug 19th, 2021 at 05:13:42 PM EST
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Vaccination is not a panacea.  If a person is stupid, i.e., drops practicing Personal Protection Protocols, or is extremely unlucky they can contract the disease.  What vaccination does is vastly lower the virulence of the disease.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Aug 25th, 2021 at 02:17:23 PM EST
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I note Covid-19 Personal Protection Protocols will also protect against multi-drug (therapeutic) resistant tuberculosis.  

Extremely lethal and hypervirulent Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain cluster emerging in Far East, Russia.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Aug 25th, 2021 at 02:44:27 PM EST
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Norway has right now 89% that has recieved their first shot, 70% both shots (according to fhi.no ). They are also having their worst outbreak ever according to 91-divoc.

After that late July outbreak in Cyprus, UK, Netherlands and Spain that peaked around the 20th of July, many EU countries has increased slowly during August, similar to late September/early October. I sure hope this isn't a prelude to a similar outbreak as in late October last year.

My take so far is that I don't think this virus is behaving particularly predictable.

by fjallstrom on Tue Aug 31st, 2021 at 09:57:59 AM EST
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Viral successful mutations cannot be predicted due to the Law of Medium Numbers:

For medium number systems, we can expect that large fluctuations, irregularities, and discrepancy with any theory will occur more or less regularly.

Medium Number systems are those too large to count and less than infinite.

Given (a) positive single-strand RNA is highly prone to mutations and (b) the vast majority of mutations are non-viable, however defined, there's no point wasting time and talent looking for possible new variants when the viable variants will arise on their own.  The key to discovering these is large scale continuous testing, a course of action Decision Makers have rejected.

As to your second point, vaccines are not a panacea.  Vaccines greatly lower the chances of getting infected and Personal Protection Protocols lower the chance even further.  However, if people are going to be stupid and run around unmasked and unprotected their chances - vaccinated or not - skyrocket.  The vaccinated start from a lower base but ... still.

A basic introduction to the problem:  An overview of basic molecular biology of SARS-CoV-2 and current COVID-19 prevention strategies

Aside: note "SARS-CoV-2 has round or elliptic and often pleomorphic form, with a diameter of approximately 60-140 nm" and properly fitter N-95 masks are 'good' to 4-30 nm, depending on the manufacturer.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Sep 1st, 2021 at 03:33:30 PM EST
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Most of the EU should be in better shape than the US, because the health care system is less of a horror show. But looking at the total population we're only slightly over 60% vaccination rate, which could still mean total collapse of the health care system if NPIs are dropped. And frankly there seems to be little of that left. Masks here have all but disappeared.
As to vaccinations: France and Spain already got a pretty gnarly fourth wave in the tourist season and that seems to have led to, or been accompanied by, a vigorous vaccination campaign. Germany and Austria had a rather slow and steady increase so far and the vaccination campaign has stalled. It's basically too late to improve on that before we max out the next wave.
The discourse here has regressed to provincialism. We can absolutely know what's going to happen since it's already happened in other countries, but everyone pretends what's happening here is all that we can know. And it's too early to do anything, which, I guess, will soon be replaced with it being too late to do anything.
We still have absurd discussions of requiring PCR tests on reentry for tourists, which might have been a good idea a month ago when we had significantly fewer cases than Spain and Croatia, but is hardly even worth talking about now. As far as I can see, the only other proposal that's been bandied about is to test a bit more in schools.
by generic on Tue Aug 31st, 2021 at 02:02:59 PM EST
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Should be but isn't because your Decision Makers are as functionally stupid as US Decision Makers.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Sep 1st, 2021 at 03:35:26 PM EST
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Quite. The legacy systems are still somewhat workable and we did a real lockdown that one time early last year, but since then it's been clown-shoes all around. Remember the face-shield phase? Eating out to Help out? Are we in the second third fourth wave? The ever changing definitions of the much maligned "lockdowns" until only personal responsibility was left. The EU leadership basically committing genocide by IP, while letting the US and UK scam them out of vaccine imports.

But even a moderately competent government gets easily swamped by malicious idiot neighbors. Melbourne managed to control it's outbreaks for eighteen months, yet Sydney capitulated to the virus at the first opportunity. Now while we lack moderate competent governments we're not lacking in malicious idiots:

The video sums up the UK medical consensus: Everyone will be exposed to the virus, which is just the obvious result of UK policy. As a side note, remember how the Tories were eager to infect everyone with the Corona virus to achieve herd immunity? Well, now they're eager to infect everyone with the virus because herd immunity is impossible. Meanwhile Keith polls low, because the government has just handled the pandemic so well. Is what he tells us.

by generic on Wed Sep 1st, 2021 at 10:19:15 PM EST
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The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Holds Briefing on COVID-19 Origin-Tracing for Diplomatic Envoys in China

On the morning of 13 August 2021, Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu chaired a briefing on COVID-19 origin-tracing for diplomatic envoys in China. Held both online and offline, the briefing was attended by more than 160 diplomatic envoys and representatives of international organizations in China. Professor Liang Wannian, team leader from the Chinese side of the China-WHO joint study team; Dr. Yuan Zhiming, Director of the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory; Academician Xu Jianguo from the Chinese Academy of Engineering; Deputy Director General Zhang Honggang from the Department of Major Science and Technology Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology; and Deputy Director General Gu Jinhui from the Department of Science, Technology and Education of the National Health Commission spoke at the briefing.

Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu pointed out that since the onset of COVID-19, acting on the vision of a global community of health for all, China has shared response experience with the international community in a timely manner, provided anti-COVID assistance to the world to the best of its ability, and taken the lead in conducting the largest scale global vaccine cooperation, thus making an outstanding contribution to global public health security. China has all along taken a scientific attitude as it engages in global cooperation on science-based origin-tracing. China invited WHO experts to China twice for origin-tracing research. In March this year, WHO officially released the Joint Report by the WHO-China joint study team, which provides the most authoritative, professional and science-based conclusions on origin-tracing and sets out detailed recommendations for future work in origin-tracing. Chinese experts also took the initiative to submit to WHO China's proposal on the second phase of origin-tracing.

Ma Zhaoxu pointed out that China's position on global origin-tracing is consistent and clear-cut. First, origin-tracing is a matter of science. It should be and can only be left to scientists to identify, through scientific research, the virus's zoonotic source and animal-human transmission routes. No country has the right to put its own political interests above people's lives, nor should a matter of science be politicized for the purpose of slandering and attacking other countries. Second, the findings and recommendations of the WHO-China joint study report are widely recognized by the international community and scientists, and must be respected and implemented by all parties, including WHO.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Aug 13th, 2021 at 10:45:24 PM EST
Data The Netherlands

Hospital Survey

The vaccination status of 320 of the 370 COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital in the week from 12 July to 18 July, is known. Almost three quarters (74%) of the COVID-19 patients in the sample were unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated. 15% of the patients had been fully vaccinated, but that includes the 5% who were known to have a weak immune system, for example due to an immune disorder or the use of medication that weakens the immune system. For 11% of the COVID-19 patients insufficient data was available.

Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine? | BBC News |

At this stage with 10-15% unvaccinated in the lower age group of the population, a legitimate question for science. Furthermore, have you been exposed to the SARS CoV-2 virus and have natural immunity, getting jabs of Moderna or Pfizer will cause more severe adverse effects that have not been studied. Is indeed worrisome.

The mutation that helps Delta spread like wildfire

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Aug 21st, 2021 at 08:42:34 PM EST
Immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for up to 8 months after infection

Substantial immune memory is generated after COVID-19, involving all four major types of immune memory. About 95% of subjects retained immune memory at ~6 months after infection. Circulating antibody titers were not predictive of T cell memory. Thus, simple serological tests for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies do not reflect the richness and durability of immune memory to SARS-CoV-2. This work expands our understanding of immune memory in humans. These results have implications for protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and recurrent COVID-19.

Herd immunity and COVID-19 (coronavirus): What you need to know | Mayo Clinic |

A Path to Normality most likely scenario ...

Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible | Nature - March 21, 2021 |

Most estimates had placed the threshold at 60-70% of the population gaining immunity, either through vaccinations or past exposure to the virus. But as the pandemic enters its second year, the thinking has begun to shift. In February, independent data scientist Youyang Gu changed the name of his popular COVID-19 forecasting model from `Path to Herd Immunity' to `Path to Normality'. He said that reaching a herd-immunity threshold was looking unlikely because of factors such as vaccine hesitancy, the emergence of new variants and the delayed arrival of vaccinations for children.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Aug 22nd, 2021 at 09:48:32 AM EST
The Wuhan lab leak theory is more about politics than science | The Guardian |

News that the lab leak theory was being taken seriously by the new US administration triggered an onslaught from commentators, who have since alleged that the scientific establishment has been covering up for Chinese scientists' errors. Among these accusations was one from Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of MI6, who claimed that "some scientific journals absolutely refused to publish anything that disagreed with the Chinese view".

"Yes, the virus is spread by asymptomatic carriers and that is perfect for human transmission. So how does a natural virus like that come into existence? It is so good at infecting humans, after all. But it is not just a human virus. We find it in pangolins. It goes from humans to mink very easily and it has infected deer in the US. It isn't a human- adapted virus. It is what we call a generalist or promiscuous virus."

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Aug 22nd, 2021 at 12:11:01 PM EST
Scientific journals are refusing to push the Lab Leak propaganda because it's total bullshit.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Aug 25th, 2021 at 02:20:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Intelligence Community Statement on Origins of COVID-19
Publication April 30, 2020

WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Office of the Director of National Intelligence today issued the following Intelligence Community (IC) statement:
"The entire Intelligence Community has been consistently providing critical support to U.S. policymakers and those responding to the COVID-19 virus, which originated in China. The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified."

Joe Biden on the Investigation into the Origins of COVID-⁠19 | May 26; 2021 |

Joe Biden tasks the Intelligence Community to prepare a report on their most up-to-date analysis of the origins of COVID-19, including whether it emerged from human contact with an infected animal or from a laboratory accident.

After initial report earlier this month, he asked for additional follow-up.

US Republican Report: Coronavirus Leaked From Chinese Lab; Scientists Still Probing Origins | VOA - Aug. 3, 2021 |

Source reveals US intelligence tricks in making up 'virus origins' and next move of taming WHO | Global Times |

Wild goose chase for US Intelligence ... time to cut budget in half and divert funds on saving the planet focus.

To be continued ...

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Aug 25th, 2021 at 06:22:35 AM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Aug 27th, 2021 at 02:15:39 PM EST
Freedom of choice for parents, pupils and teachers alike. In metropolitan areas split schools into vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. In rural areas of Red states the majority have already chosen to oppose Covid-19 virus mitigation and vaccination.

The anti-vaxxers in The Netherlands terrorize those who support vaccinations.

Dance Teacher: Death threats after imposing a vaccination requirement on his pupils

Schools weigh vaccine and mask mandates as students prepare to return | CNBC - Aug. 7, 2021 |

Further reading ...

The Anti-vaccination Movement: A Regression in Modern Medicine | NIH Journal - July 2018 |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Aug 31st, 2021 at 05:40:13 PM EST
In the city of Bugliano (near Pisa) self-certification of vaccination is allowed.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Aug 31st, 2021 at 07:25:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Better than the Onion 🤣 ... Si!

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Aug 31st, 2021 at 07:47:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The "average person" shouldn't be making these decisions because the "average person" does not have the knowledge and expertise to make an informed decision.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Sep 1st, 2021 at 03:40:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What is C.1.2, the new Covid variant in South Africa, and should we be worried?

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Sep 1st, 2021 at 02:31:47 AM EST
What can we learn from the course of COVID-19 in Africa? | Aug. 7, 2020 |

On August 7, the WHO reports more than 1 million recorded COVID-19 infections in Africa and calls it a turning point. Yet, the number of people who are sick or deceased on the continent is relatively low. How is that possible? In an article in Science, LUMC researchers and partners in Africa highlight the possible causes and add the hypothesis that the distinct wiring of the immune system might also be playing a role in the relatively low COVID-19 death rates in Africa.

According to the authors, many predicted a very dark scenario for Africa with millions of COVID-19 deaths as many countries on the continent grapple with poverty, poor health systems and unhygienic conditions. However, factors such as country lockdowns, bans on mass gatherings, young population age, and less diabetes and cardiovascular diseases probably contributed to the dampened COVID-19 death rates so far. 

Intense exposure to microorganisms

LUMC leading fellow Simon Jochems and Professor of Parasitology Maria Yazdanbakhsh, with their co-authors, write in Science that the more intense exposure to microorganisms and parasites might also play an important role in the reported low death rate per capita in Africa compared to many other parts of the world. This exposure leads to a distinct wiring of the immune system. Yazdanbakhsh: "We have shown together with our partners in low to middle income countries that the immune system of people living in less urban areas is very distinct. This is not just because of genetics, but more importantly due to environmental factors. Of note, the largest burden of disease of COVID-19 in Africa is found in South-Africa, the most developed country on the continent, accounting for over 50% of cases."

Previous research has shown that the immune system of someone living in the Netherlands is very distinct from a person with the same age and sex living in Senegal, Gabon or Indonesia. But more importantly, someone living in an urban area of these countries has even a more distinct immune system than a genetically similar person living in a rural area of the same country. "A distinct immune system will also mean a distinct response to SARS-CoV-2. For example, one of the immune cells in the lungs that leads to the cytokine storm, might be better regulated in Africans and therefore cause less havoc upon infection with SARS-CoV-2", explains Jochems, an expert in mucosal immunology and in particular of the airways.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Sep 3rd, 2021 at 02:20:13 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Sep 3rd, 2021 at 02:20:52 PM EST
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'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Sep 3rd, 2021 at 02:21:45 PM EST
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'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Sep 3rd, 2021 at 02:23:07 PM EST

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by Oui (Oui) on Fri Sep 3rd, 2021 at 02:24:08 PM EST
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