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Decade of Inflation and Unwinding Globalization

by Oui Mon Oct 17th, 2022 at 10:49:38 PM EST

Peter Thiel to disrupt America's democracy

Re-energized this election cycle, the tech entrepreneur joins other mega-donors apparently out to undercut the political system

From the diaries ...

Worthwhile read ...

Conservative Warns Lugar: Bolton Is a True Force of Darkness | by Dean Pajevic on May 9, 2005 |

Global Tentacles of Palantir Spread to EU | Apr. 24, 2021 |

Has Globalization Changed the Inflation Process? | BIS Working Papers - June 2019 |  

The relationship central to most inflation models, between slack and inflation, seems to have weakened. Do we need a new framework? This paper uses three very different approaches - principal components, a Phillips curve model, and trend-cycle decomposition - to show that inflation models should more explicitly and comprehensively control for changes in the global economy and allow for key parameters to adjust over time. Global factors, such as global commodity prices, global slack, exchange rates, and producer price competition can all significantly affect inflation, even after controlling for the standard domestic variables. The role of these global factors has changed over the last decade, especially the relationship between global slack, commodity prices, and producer price dispersion with CPI inflation and the cyclical component of inflation. The role of different global and domestic factors varies across countries, but as the world has become more integrated through trade and supply chains, global factors should no longer play an ancillary role in models of inflation dynamics.

Unwinding globalization | Flossbach von Storch Research Institute - Sept. 28, 2021 |

We are living in a far less globalizing economy today. Since at least the Great Financial Crisis the pace of globalization has slowed down significantly or even reversed in some areas. Although the COVID-19 pandemic seems to some extent to have interrupted this development, chances for a new wave of globalization are meagre - with painful economic consequences.

Recent (de)globalization trends

The most recent phase of globalization between the early 1990s and 2007 brought an unprecedented rise in economic, social, and political interconnectedness between nations worldwide. The KOF Globalisation Index, in Figure 1, increased from 43 in 1990 to 58 in 2007, with comparable and significant improvements in all three dimensions, economic, social and political. However, since 2007, marking the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis, the process has experienced a structural break. Especially the economic dimension of globalization has disappointed. This phenomenon is particularly reflected in a falling share of world merchandize trade over global GDP (Fig. 2).


Economic implications of de-globalization

A wide array of economic models undeniably shows that free trade and broader economic integration between nations bring net economic gains. Reversing these trends implies slower economic growth - everywhere. The most hit would be smaller developing countries, especially when being economically dependent on a narrow range of income sources, lacking a broad industrial basis or natural resources. But also highly diversified and technologically leading economies would suffer from shrinking real demand elsewhere.

There are further unpleasant economic consequences to expect. Just as globalization was a driving force of the past slow price dynamics and through this of low inflation and declining interest rates, switching the process on the reverse gear could eventually lead to widespread price and interest rate increases.

Moreover, since deglobalization of trade often goes hand in hand with unwinding of financial ties, this could remarkably depress the borrower position of the USA - both in the private and public sector. Accordingly, attracting funds from abroad could become increasingly cumbersome. Furthermore, falling foreign demand for US debt could eventually undermine the US dollar's role as a reserve currency.

Deglobalization could also mean a backlash in the global climate action, which is more desired today than ever before.

Joe on Liz’s Poor Judgement Economic Policy

Biden says abandoned U.K. tax cut plan was a ’mistake’ amid ’worldwide inflation’ | CNBC |

President Joe Biden on Saturday called embattled British Prime Minister Liz Truss’ mini-budget tax cut plan a “mistake,” and said he is worried that other nations’ fiscal policies may hurt the U.S. amid “worldwide inflation.”

Ukraine War and a Strong US Economy

Working out well … for now … wait for the real effect of de-Globalization. MAGA

Biden said he was not concerned about the strength of the dollar — it set a new record against the British Pound in recent weeks — which benefits U.S. imports but makes the country’s exports more expensive to the rest of the world.

The president said the U.S. economy “is strong as hell.”

“I’m concerned about the rest of the world,” he added. “The problem is the lack of economic growth and sound policy in other countries.”

Said Biden: “It’s worldwide inflation, that’s consequential.”

Listened to Wellink, former head of the Dutch National Bank …

Long-term expectation will be very similar to the 1970s after the Oil Crisis with Saudi Arabia and Guif States. Was my conclusion many months ago …

High inflation and high interest rates, mortgages with pain for new home owners … for many years. Ended in a strong recession in the 1980s and brought the likes of Reagan and Thatcher. Late in the 80s the Asian economic crisis which let to a policy of Globalization. In America the financial crisis in mortgage banks. See Savings and Loans and the Keating Five. See scandal and fraude BCCI.

Related data …

My earlier assessment ...

Will the EU-27 Survive the Biden Years?

[work in progress ... 🚸 ]


Semiconductors and Taiwan's "Silicon Shield" | Stimson Center |

A Wild Card in U.S.-China Technological and Geopolitical Competition

Taiwan's global dominance of semiconductor fabrication has upset the status and the dynamics of US-China competition

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Oct 18th, 2022 at 07:37:52 AM EST
TSMC, Samsung Win Waivers; US Workers Ban Rocks China Firms

Chip giants TSMC and Samsung Electronics have won one-year US licences from the Biden Administration authorising them to export advanced chips to China.
But perhaps the biggest news on Thursday was the impact of the Biden Administration's decision to ban US citizens from working for Chinese chip companies.

The move "is sending shock waves across China's semiconductor industry where many entrepreneurs, senior executives and scientists are US citizens," the South China Morning Post reported.

It said a review of a list of HS citizens listed as employees of Chinese chip companies "found that many heavyweights in China's semiconductor industry have US citizenship - most of them naturalised citizens who were born in China but studied at American universities or worked in the US chip industry".

But no Chinese companies had published the number or percentage of American employees on their payroll, it said.

Naura Technology, China's top chip equipment maker, has told its US engineers to stop working on research projects described as "component and machinery development" immediately in a bid to comply with the new US regulations.

US chip equipment suppliers are also pulling out US staff from other Chinese facilities, including the country's top memory chipmaker Yangtze Memory Technologies, the Wall Street Journal reported.

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Oct 18th, 2022 at 07:52:18 AM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Oct 18th, 2022 at 07:53:38 AM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Oct 18th, 2022 at 11:37:15 AM EST

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Oct 18th, 2022 at 11:38:57 AM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Oct 18th, 2022 at 11:39:40 AM EST
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One might imagine, if one fell off the turnip truck yesteday, that BREXIT never occured. Or if this policy were executed, the results are inconsequential by comparison to liberties obtained for the shire merchants by withdrawing from continental commerce. The Conservative Party per se was not in the least responisble for < checks watch > 800 years of human < checks notes > progress and British prosperity. One might suppose, all futures are possible, when a proper prime minister is nominated by the current regime to represent fully the political aspirations of the the current regime.
by Cat on Tue Oct 18th, 2022 at 06:42:10 PM EST
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YouGov | Most Tory members say Liz Truss should resign, 18 Oct LOL!
Boris Johnson is the most popular successor
Two in five Conservative members (38%) want Truss to remain in post.

These are similar numbers to those Boris Johnson received from the membership on the eve of his departure, when 59% wanted him to go and only 36% wanted him to say.

While most of those members who voted for Liz Truss at the recent leadership election want her to stay (57%), a substantial minority would like her to go (39%).

by Cat on Tue Oct 18th, 2022 at 07:32:28 PM EST
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Facing the future: Britain's new industrial revolution | McKinsey - May 2021 |

In a time of global turbulence, manufacturers in the United Kingdom have an opportunity to reimagine and revitalize their sector. Those that embrace Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies--such as digitization, artificial intelligence, robotics, and additive manufacturing--stand to boost performance, shape new business models, and drive sustainable growth.

Some British firms have been forerunners of this shift--moving rapidly to embrace digitization and automation, and setting the benchmark for the "next normal" in manufacturing. One is Britishvolt, the United Kingdom's leading advanced battery manufacturer, which is rapidly implementing high-speed manufacturing processes, adopting new materials technology, reusing processing materials, and generating its own energy from a 200MW solar farm.

Another example, in the healthcare sector, is GSK: it has applied 4IR technologies across its operations in Ware, using advanced analytics, image recognition, and automation to achieve a double-digit increase in capacity. Its Ware plant has been recognized by the World Economic Forum as a "Lighthouse" manufacturer.

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Oct 18th, 2022 at 07:51:26 PM EST
Shock therapy: turmoil engulfs Britishvolt's £3.8bn battery factory | The Guardian - Sept. 29, 2022 |

Britishvolt's pricey sponsorship of the "Electric Avenue" battery car showcase at the festival was not the only instance of the fledgling company's extravagant approach, according to insiders.

Nadjari's moment in the spotlight did not last. In late Julythe 40-year-old was removed as a director. The company was in serious financial trouble, and the Guardian revealed in August it had put building work for its factory on "life support" to conserve cash.

The turmoil has cast doubt on the future of a three-year-old company hailed by former prime minister Boris Johnson as a cornerstone of his "global green industrial revolution".

Upon completion, the Blyth battery gigafactory in the North East of England will produce enough batteries for more than 300,000 EVs each year. This will considerably support the transition of the UK automotive industry to a zero emissions future and greater production of EVs, said the UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy.

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Oct 18th, 2022 at 07:54:57 PM EST
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Biden's Deficit Spin | FactCheck - Apr. 27, 2022 |

In a fact sheet on the president's proposed 2023 budget, the White House boasted about "the President's strategy to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out and his effective management of the American Rescue Plan--a strategy that was built on smart, fiscally prudent investments that helped jumpstart our economy."

However, in an April 8 blog post titled "No, President Biden Has Not Implemented Historic Deficit Reduction," CRFB wrote (with this emphasis) that "the main source of falling deficits is the expiration of most COVID relief such as enhanced unemployment benefits and recovery rebates. The remaining decrease is largely the result of strong income growth and high inflation." CRFB also noted that even after this post-pandemic drop, deficits will remain historically high.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 22nd, 2022 at 06:10:04 AM EST
Joint Statement of Janet L. Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, and Shalanda D. Young, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2022 | Oct. 21, 2022 |

WASHINGTON -- U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen and White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Shalanda D. Young today released the final budget results for fiscal year (FY) 2022. During FY 2022, the deficit fell by $1.4 trillion--the largest one-year decrease in the Federal deficit in American history. The 2022 deficit of $1.375 trillion was half of the FY 2021 deficit, $40 billion less than forecasted in the President's 2023 Budget and $1.8 trillion lower than the deficit the President inherited. As a percentage of GDP, the FY 2022 deficit was 6.8 percentage points lower than in the previous year.

From Day One, the Biden-Harris Administration has been working to build an economy that works for everyone. Under the President's leadership--and thanks in part to the American Rescue Plan (ARP) and a historic vaccination effort--America has more than recovered all of the jobs lost during the pandemic. Our economy has added more than 10 million jobs since the President took office, and the unemployment rate has returned to its pre-pandemic, 50-year low of 3.5 percent. The President's economic plan has helped usher in a new era of American manufacturing, with nearly 700,000 new manufacturing jobs added since January 2021. And, the historic Inflation Reduction Act will bring down energy, health care, and prescription drug costs, tackle the climate crisis, further reduce the deficit, and make our tax system fairer.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 22nd, 2022 at 06:10:52 AM EST
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More Workers Find Their Wages Falling Even Further Behind Inflation

A rising real wage allows workers to improve their standard of living. However, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that "... vast numbers of Americans find their cost of living is rising faster than the income they're bringing home."

How prevalent is this situation and how much is the shortfall? We find that a majority of employed workers' real (inflation-adjusted) wages have failed to keep up with inflation in the past year. For these workers, the median decline in real wages is a little more than 8.5 percent. Taken together, these outcomes appear to be the most severe faced by employed workers over the past 25 years.

Chart 1 shows the distribution of wage growth for this period. The first thing to note is the wide range of wage movements. Over the 12-month period, some workers more than doubled their wages, while others suffered wage cuts.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 22nd, 2022 at 06:11:35 AM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 22nd, 2022 at 06:12:19 AM EST
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The culture wars now ripping through American politics -- especially noticeable in these last few weeks before the midterm elections, when Trump is trying to lay the groundwork for an authoritarian takeover -- arguably began on May 8, 1970 in New York City.

That day happened to be the 25th anniversary of the Allied victory over Germany in World War II. It was also weeks after Richard Nixon expanded the Vietnam War into Cambodia. And it was just four days after Ohio National Guardsmen shot dead four students during antiwar protests at Kent State University.
I recall it vividly.

On May 8, 1970, a riot broke out in New York City.

Around noon, near the intersection of Wall Street and Broad Street in Lower Manhattan, more than 400 construction workers -- steamfitters, ironworkers, plumbers, and other laborers from nearby construction sites like the emerging World Trade Center -- attacked around 1,000 student demonstrators (including two of my friends) protesting the Vietnam War and the May 4 Kent State shootings.

The workers carried U.S. flags and chanted "USA, All the way" and "America, love it or leave it." They chased the students through the streets -- attacking those who looked like hippies with hard hats and weapons, including tools and steel-toe boots.

I heard about it when several friends from New York who were active in the anti-Vietnam War movement phoned me later that day. To characterize them as upset understates their emotions.

As David Paul Kuhn reports in The Hardhat Riot, the police did little to stop the mayhem. Some even egged on the thuggery. When a group of hardhats moved menacingly toward a Wall Street plaza, a patrolman shouted: "Give 'em hell, boys. Give 'em one for me!"

The workers then stormed a barely-protected City Hall where the mayor's staff, to the hardhats' rage, had lowered the flag in honor of the Kent State dead. They pushed their way to the top of the steps and attempted to gain entrance, chanting "Hey, hey, whatcha say? We support the USA!"

Fearing the mob would break in, a person from the mayor's staff raised the flag.

It was a small precursor to the attack on the U.S. Capitol more than a half-century later.

My friends escaped injury but they were traumatized. I remember them describing the rioting construction workers as a "pack of animals."

The hardhat riot had immediate political consequences. Richard Nixon exploited it for political advantage. It was the first salvo in America's culture wars.

Nixon's chief of staff H.R. Haldeman wrote in his diary: "The college demonstrators have overplayed their hands, evidence is the blue-collar group rising up against them, and [the] president can mobilize them."

Patrick Buchanan, then a Nixon aide, wrote in a memo to his boss, saying "blue-collar Americans" are "our people now." 

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 22nd, 2022 at 06:48:33 AM EST

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 22nd, 2022 at 06:55:46 AM EST

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 22nd, 2022 at 06:56:21 AM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 22nd, 2022 at 06:57:10 AM EST
Economic woes of the 1970s | Khan Academy |

During the twenty-five years after World War II, the economic power of the United States was unparalleled. Indeed, contemporary observers commented that the postwar United States was in the midst of "the greatest prosperity the world has ever known."

The American gross national product (GNP), a measure of all goods and services produced by a country's citizens, increased from $200 billion in 1940 to more than $500 billion in 1960 to nearly a trillion dollars by 1970. Thanks to increases in productivity, the American standard of living had doubled between 1945 and 1970. With just six percent of the world's population, the United States enjoyed 40% of the world's wealth.

But troubling signs began to emerge in the late 1960s. Unemployment rose by 33% between 1968 and 1970, while the consumer price index went up by 11%. At the same time, real wages began to stagnate. Simultaneous inflation and stagnation, nicknamed stagflation, puzzled economic analysts: usually, when wages fell, prices fell, and when wages increased, prices increased. But not in the 1970s. As a result, Americans had less purchasing power, and increasingly expensive American exports were at a disadvantage in the international market. In 1971, the United States experienced its first unfavorable international trade balance since 1893.

What caused this slump? The massive cost of the war in Vietnam and the expansion of social programs at home without commensurate tax increases helped to drive inflation (the price of goods and services). Meanwhile, US manufacturing (especially automotive manufacturing) had become less competitive over time compared to efficient overseas rivals, particularly in Germany and Japan. More and more American jobs were in the service sector, which had lower wages and fewer benefits than manufacturing jobs. Individuals born on the tail end of the baby boom found themselves competing in a very crowded labor market, especially as more women and immigrants entered the workforce.

Global community paying price of American adventure in Vietnam ...

War in Vietnam Started 13-Year Spiral of Prices | WaPo - Oct. 78 |

From the diaries ...

Intergenerational Justice

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 22nd, 2022 at 07:55:47 AM EST
How the 'Nixon Shock' Remade the World Economy | Yale Insights - July 2021 |

In a new book, Yale SOM Dean Emeritus Jeffrey Garten explores a moment when the U.S. realized it needed to take a different role on the global stage in response to trade and economic challenges. Richard Nixon's decision to delink the dollar from gold, announced without warning in August 1971, remade the global monetary system in an instant.

Q: What was the context for the decision?

At the end of the Second World War, there was literally no functioning global economy, so nations got together to create a new trading system and a new monetary system. That monetary system was devised in a town in New Hampshire called Bretton Woods, so it was called the Bretton Woods Agreement. One of the key elements was that the dollar would be pegged to gold at $35 an ounce. Other central banks could exchange the dollars they held for gold. In that sense, the dollar was as good as gold. Every other currency had a fixed exchange rate to the dollar.

    It was established to design a new international monetary order for the post war, and to avoid the perceived problems of the interwar period: protectionism, beggar-thy-neighbour devaluations, hot money flows, and unstable exchange rates. It also sought to provide a framework of monetary and financial stability to foster global economic growth and the growth of international trade.

They established the dollar-gold standard to create some predictability and stability for global commerce. For the next 25 years, it was a tremendous success. The dollar became the global currency. Everyone was happy to hold it, in large part because they could exchange it for gold if they had any doubts about its value. It was part of the phenomenal recovery from the war in Europe and Japan. It also created enormous economic prosperity in the U.S., all through the '50s and '60s.

When the Nixon administration came into office in 1969, they realize that the world economy had grown very, very big. Everybody wanted dollars, so the Federal Reserve was printing lots of dollars. As a result, there were four times as many dollars in circulation as there was gold in reserves.

The rate of $35 for an ounce of gold was good in 1944, but it hadn't changed, so by 1971 the dollar was really overvalued. That meant imports were very cheap, and exports were very expensive. We experienced our first trade deficit since the 19th century. We were experiencing employment problems. For the first time, the U.S. started to talk about losing competitiveness.

In the broadest sense, the United States couldn't uphold all of the responsibilities that it inherited after the Second World War. For decades, the U.S. was so predominant that we could help everybody; we lifted the world economy and didn't worry about the domestic economy because it was so strong. Nineteen seventy-one was the year the U.S. began to understand the Marshall Plan mentality was over.

Gold hits 17 Year high | Alexander G Rubio on Sep 16th, 2005 |

So Nixon decided to make the dollar a free floating fiat currency, backed by nothing but the trust in the US economy. That is, the dollar was really retied to another commodity, oil, which everyone now needed, and which everyone had to pay for in dollars. And so ended the so called Bretton Woods currency regime. And gold was supposedly relegated to a relic of a former era.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Oct 22nd, 2022 at 07:58:38 AM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Wed Oct 26th, 2022 at 07:32:15 AM EST

German Ifo weakens again in October

Recession remains inevitable. The flash estimate of German GDP growth, which will be released on Friday, is highly likely to show that the German economy dropped into contraction in the third quarter. While the services industry benefitted from a post-lockdown boost over the summer months, shrinking order books, high energy and commodity prices and low water levels strongly weighed on economic activity.

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by Oui (Oui) on Wed Oct 26th, 2022 at 07:33:45 AM EST
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by Cat on Wed Oct 26th, 2022 at 07:26:38 PM EST
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Handelsblatt | 533 billion euros in debt: German companies fall into the interest rate trap, 25 Oct
(pay wall, I will not breech)
According to Handelsblatt calculations, the net financial debt of the more than 150 listed companies in the Dax , MDax[,] and SDax increased by EUR 85 billion to EUR 533 billion within a year. That's more than ever. This does not include banks and insurance companies, as their liabilities cannot be compared with those of other companies.

The turnaround in interest rates by the central banks is causing the costs for new loans to rise drastically: according to Bundesbank statistics, corporate bonds are currently yielding an average annual interest rate of 4.3 percent. Just over a year ago it was 0.7 percent.

greater than UkraineInvest "acceptable" risk rate < wipes tears >
The trend has recently accelerated because investors expect rapidly rising interest rates in view of double-digit inflation rates. Next Thursday [27 Oct], the European Central Bank will decide on the next increase.
vOLdeMoRT continues
Twenty-five German companies currently have more debt than equity, the report noted, adding that to reduce debt, many of them are planning to sell their shares ["marketable assets" ho.ho.].

The report highlighted that telecommunications giant Deutsche Telekom, which is included in the DAX index, has the largest net debt among German companies, estimated at €145.8 billion.

On Sunday, Saxony's state premier, Michael Kretschmer, warned that German companies are currently struggling to survive amid the skyrocketing energy costs. According to the official, many companies are ready to stop their work within a few weeks, not months.

The day before, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported, citing a statement by the president of the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Peter Adrian, that some enterprises in Germany may suspend operations as the energy crisis worsens.

by Cat on Wed Oct 26th, 2022 at 07:38:25 PM EST
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What Can Keep Euro Area Inflation High

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by Oui (Oui) on Wed Oct 26th, 2022 at 07:35:56 AM EST
Germany should back growth or leave euro-Soros | Reuters - Sept. 8, 2012 |

Soros said Europe faced a prolonged depression and an acrimonious end to the European unification project if steps were not taken to help its southern nations grow their way out of the debt crisis by collectively assuming some of their debt and relaxing its German-led insistence on austerity.

"Germany should either lead in developing a growth policy, political union and burden-sharing, accept the cost of leadership, or leave through an amicable arrangement," Soros said in an interview with Reuters television in Vienna.

Soros, a liberal philanthropist who rose to fame as an investor on a big bet against the British pound in 1992, said a Germany-free euro zone could be more competitive in exports and service its debts more cheaply with a weaker, France-led "Latin" euro.

Otherwise, Germany should step up and accept its de-facto leadership role, and abandon its Bundesbank-led ideological opposition to central bank financing of states and strict adherence to a goal of inflation close to but below 2 percent.

Berlin has given its backing to the European Central Bank's new bond-buying program to lower struggling euro zone countries' borrowing costs, which Germany's central bank has criticized.

Playing the game of chicken ...

Germany spars with ECB over bond market risks | FT |

Counter moves by the ECB ...

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by Oui (Oui) on Wed Oct 26th, 2022 at 09:45:53 PM EST
ECB's New Anti-Fragmentation Tool to Reduce Fiscal Risks as Rates Rise | Fitch Ratings - Aug. 3, 2022 |

The TPI is not the ECB's only tool with which to address fragmentation risks. The ECB's first line of defence is the flexible reinvestment of Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) redemptions. A third instrument is the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme. However, we believe eurozone countries have a strong incentive to avoid OMT activation as it is attached to a European Stability Mechanism (ESM) programme involving strict conditionality.

The TPI can be activated to counter what the ECB considers unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that seriously threaten the transmission of monetary policy. The scale of purchases would depend on the severity of the risks to transmission and is not restricted ex ante. We believe this gives the ECB broad discretion over potential TPI interventions, but the TPI could still face legal challenges on the basis it violates ECB rules prohibiting the monetary financing of fiscal deficits.

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by Oui (Oui) on Wed Oct 26th, 2022 at 09:46:26 PM EST
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Not so long ago the nuclear option in Euroland ...

Germany can save the Euro by bringing back the Deutsche Mark | The Hill Opinion - 2017 |

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by Oui (Oui) on Wed Oct 26th, 2022 at 09:57:59 PM EST
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The Fed and inflation running away with the midterm election ... a gift to Republicans,

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by Oui (Oui) on Wed Nov 2nd, 2022 at 06:39:23 PM EST

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by Oui (Oui) on Wed Nov 2nd, 2022 at 06:44:24 PM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Sun Nov 13th, 2022 at 08:19:26 PM EST

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