Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

To Intervene or Not to Intervene -- Role Military Force

by Oui Sat Feb 19th, 2022 at 04:49:51 PM EST

Breaking down the United Nations by John Bolton under the George Bush administration ... refuting International Law invading Iraq, torture, detention and rendition.

Argument of sovereignty of a nation and permanent borders. Russia made clear it will protect its Russian speaking citizens in East Ukraine. R2P policy of the UN and advocate at will by the US and NATO allies.

Moscow's Perspectives on War in Libya | Carnegie - March 31, 2011 |

Adopting the UN Resolution 1973, the Security Council authorized Member States, acting nationally or through regional organizations or arrangements, to take all necessary measures to protect civilians. The implications of this resolution, however, extend beyond North Africa and the Arab Countries only. The war in Libya entails significant consequences at a global level.

Focusing on the Russian Federation, three events require our attention: the Russian abstention from the UNSC resolution 1973; the contrasting declarations of Putin and Medvedev over the military attack; the firing of Vladimir Chamov - former Russian ambassador to Libya.

These episodes suggest the existence of contested and on-going debates at the heart of the Russian political elite in the realm of domestic politics and foreign policy. They are also key factors that let us glimpse into the future relations between Russia and the West as well as the domestic discourse in the context of the approaching presidential elections in 2012.

Russia has always been against military intervention, from Kosovo to Iraq. The reason of its strict adherence to the principle of non-interference is to be found in the Cold War and the post-1991 anti-Americanism. The Soviet statesman and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andrei Gromyko, was nicknamed in the West Mr Nyet (Mr. No) due to his habitual attitude towards Western proposals and interventionist policies. The Russian cautious position persisted even after the end of the Cold War.

Recently, in 2008, The Economist published an article entitled `The return of Mr Nyet' after Russia had blocked the efforts to isolate and punish the despots of Zimbabwe. In contrast, in March 2011, on Medvedev's orders, Russia abstained from the UN resolution, refusing to use its veto which would have blocked its passage.

Putin Sidekick Rejects Boss' 'Crusade' Talk on Libya

Mr Putin had said UN Security Council Resolution 1973, which was adopted on March 17, was "defective and flawed" as it "allows for everything".

The resolution authorises "all necessary measures" to protect civilians in Libya, but Mr Putin said there was no logic in killing civilians to achieve that end.

He said he was worried at the ease with which decisions to use force in international affairs were being taken.

Libya and the Future of the Responsibility to Protect - African and European Perspectives | Peace Research Institute Frankfurt - 2011 |

Although the UN Security Council had authorized the use of coercive measures to protect civilians before, it is the first time that the Council authorized the use of force for the purpose of human protection against the will of the acting government of a functioning state. Moreover, the broad language of the resolution left room for prolonged military action that resulted in the toppling of the Libyan regime.

The Responsibility to Protect (R2P), developed by the International Commission of Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS) ten years ago, and endorsed, albeit in rather general terms by the community of states at the World Summit six years ago, is finally put into practice. This watershed event will change the understanding and meaning of this hitherto contested concept in many respects.

For one thing, the events in Libya point to the continuing relevance of R2P. Despite the disastrous outcomes of the interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and despite plummeting support for humanitarian intervention in many Western societies, Resolution 1973 and the subsequent military campaign indicate that the idea of humanitarian intervention has not been put on the back-burner.

Less easily predictable are the consequences of these events for the legitimacy of the concept of R2P.

Effect of Bias in Western Media: Poll NATO

Polls show Europeans' mixed feelings about Russia, NATO amid Ukraine unease

... other polls expose complex and diverging views Europeans have on the current escalation prompted by the Kremlin's troop build up around Ukraine.

More Slovaks, for example, blame NATO, rather than Russia (44% vs 34%), for tensions in Ukraine, a study found last week.

However, the attitude flips if age differences are taken into account. Slovaks aged 25-34 tend to blame Russia slightly more (42%) than NATO and the US (39%). Yet, among those older than 65, only 27.5% believe Russia is responsible.

An attitude split along historical and demographic lines appears to be present in Germany as well.

In East Germany, once part of the former Soviet bloc, more people (43%) blame the US for intensifying the conflict, compared to the 32% who point the finger at Russia, while in the West, the majority (52%) blames Russia, and only 17% the US, a Forsa survey found last Thursday (3 February).

Europeans' views also divert when it comes to who to trust, NATO or the EU to protect their interests if Russia invades Ukraine.

According to the new ECFR data, Poles (75-67%), Romanians (61-67%), Italians (65-63%), and Germans (53-50%) trust NATO more then the EU.

Meanwhile, people in non-NATO countries Finland (60-52%) and Sweden (67-64%) tend to trust Brussels more than the transatlantic alliance. The same is true in France (50-47%), where political leadership has long been critical of NATO.

Allies of `brain dead' NATO return fire to France's Macron

German Chancellor Angela Merkel defended the 70-year-old alliance as "indispensable" and said Mr Macron's "sweeping judgments" were not "necessary".

Standing by Ms Merkel's side, NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg warned that a weakened transatlantic alliance could "divide Europe", while US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, also in Germany, insisted NATO was "important, critical".

In the interview, Mr Macron decried a lack of co-ordination between Europe and the US and ­lamented unilateral action in Syria by Turkey, a NATO member. "You have no co-ordination whatsoever of strategic decision-making between the US and its NATO allies. None," he said.

"You have an un-coordinated aggressive action by another NATO ally, Turkey, in an area where our interests are at stake."

Is Libya NATO's Final Bow? | Brookings Inst. - Dec. 2, 2011 |

Perhaps the headline should have been NATO's Final Blow?

Contradicting the warnings from many experts and politicians in both Europe and the United States, the military intervention in Libya did not lead to a protracted stalemate.

The effectiveness of NATO's humanitarian intervention in the cases of Kosovo (1999) and Libya (2011)

In the 1990s, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has emerged as an active international actor carrying out military interventions motivated by humanitarian purposes (Carati, 2017). Even when acting under the UN, NATO has been taking full control over the nature and scope of its military operations. The military operations of the late 1990's in the Balkans, and more recently in Libya, furthered NATO's role as an enabler of humanitarian interventions.

There are several reasons for NATO's increasing role as the maintainer of peace. Mainly, UN's deficiencies in managing several humanitarian crises and lack of military personnel enabled NATO to use its military to support UN missions.

Also, NATO's growing democratic character increased its status as a international peace keeping force (Carati, 2017). The emerging role of NATO as a key actor in fighting for humanitarian purposes has been accompanied by normative changes reinforcing that view.

Arguably, by the end of the Cold War, NATO adopted a crisis-managing approach which undertook a position beyond a mere defence alliance (Carati, 2017). This approach enabled the Alliance to serve as a legitimate actor fostering the R2P doctrine.

While the new image of NATO was emerging, the UN delegated various peacekeeping tasks to NATO which increased NATO's credibility and political prestige (Carati, 2017).

The intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina was the first military mission in NATO's history that served as a sort of "blue print" for future missions (Carati, 2017, p. 296).

Three years later, the intervention in Kosovo confirmed NATO's image as the humanitarian intervention leader.

NATO Acting Without the UN Sets a Dangerous Precedent ...

Kosovo, International Law and Humanitarian Intervention | Winter 2000/01 |

Democracy the American Way ...

 Rudimentary remarks from the White House ...

The West has shut down all avenues for talks and diplomacy with Russia and Putin ...

Is the EU's failed relationship with Russia the member states' fault? | April 2014 |

Instead of splitting the ties of Russia with economic power China, US policy has caused a new power bloc to work together.

The Russia-China entente and its future

That is a distinction without difference to G7 Davos-card clientele who historically--from 18th-century to present--are willing and able to subjugate ("protect") so-called emerging market with every weapon at their disposal to, ahem, sustain world domination.

As far as I can tell, this "ad hoc" International Commission of Intervention and State Sovereignty infesting UN public discourse is merely another cohort within US-sponsored PNAC "forum," assembled to publicize "preemptive defense" (a multi-purpose doctrine for selective state-sanctioned violence) since 1992. Which is to say, this iteration merely refined reductio ad absurdum--rather than repudiated--oxymoronic expressions of "laws of war" now doing business as "humanitarian laws," IOW socially acceptable murder according to sanctimonious, proselytizing "developed" government-sponsored-enterprise.

God bless you all, God protect our troops.

What I cannot understand --because I am not fluent in psycho--is, Why do these "purveyors of violence" even bother commissioning broadcast publishers to rationalize hourly, daily, the insanity of regulated "war" opposed to unregulated "genocide"?

How in hell has RU evacuation of any and all RU citizens from civil war in Ukraine come to signify declaration of war?  

by Cat on Sat Feb 19th, 2022 at 06:49:59 PM EST
ICYMI: The voice of the US federal government "outs" The War Behind Closed Doors for another generation of the most ignorant, litigious voyeurs on the planet.
by Cat on Sat Feb 19th, 2022 at 06:58:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good rant
by Tom2 on Sat Feb 19th, 2022 at 09:09:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Referred to a study I managed to locate ...

Reconsidering the Outcomes of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change
By Ruolin Su, Alexander B. Downes, Lindsey A. O'Rourke

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Feb 19th, 2022 at 09:53:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
David Stockman is right : he is not useful.

He recycles that killer talking point about Ukraine having no right to exist, because it's only a border province between competing empires. High moral ground.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 06:46:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How little has changed on one hundred years ...

Briefly watched a film yesterday -- quite an exception for me -- but it quickly  caught my attention ... it could have played out today ... fascist colonial expansion by other means. Massive inequality in firing power to slaughter Bedouins fighting for freedom and their land ... some good actors, however I couldn't watch or stomach the bloodshed. Nothing left to the imagination ...

Omar Mukhtar: Lion of the Desert

This desert epic about a Libyan hero who helped his nation fend off an Italian invasion in 1929. Anthony Quinn stars as Omar Mukhtar, who organizes Libyan forces to hold off the encroaching Italian troops under General Rodolfo Graziana (Oliver Reed), who are trying to gain a foothold on Libyan soil under direct orders from the Italian dictator Mussolini (Rod Steiger). With the persistence of Mukhtar, the Libyans, battling the tanks and guns of the Italian army with their Bedouin troops on horseback, managed to hold off the Italians for twenty years, until Mukhtar was finally captured and executed.

The Libyan Battle for the Heritage of Omar al-Mukhtar, the "Lion of the Desert"

Little is known of Omar al-Mukhtar until the last decade of his life when he became the undisputed leader of the Senusist resistance in Cyrenaica.

This attitude was confirmed by Italian leaders, including Badoglio (who probably supported the misleading statement hoping to break anti-Italian resistance).

At the end of October 1929 Omar denounced the compromise and reestablished a unity of action among Libyan forces, preparing himself for the ultimate confrontation with General Rodolfo Graziani, the military commander from March 1930. Having failed in a massive offensive in June against Omar's forces, Graziani, in full accord with Badoglio, De Bono (minister of the colonies), and Benito Mussolini, initiated a strong plan to decisively break off the Cirenaica resistance. The plan was to transfer the Gebel population (around 100,000 persons) to concentration camps on the coast and to close the border with Egypt from the coast at Giarabub, thus preventing any foreign help to the fighters and breaking up the solidarity of the population.

From the beginning of 1931 the measures taken by Graziani took their toll on the Senusist resistance. The rebels were deprived of help and reinforcements, spied upon, hit by Italian aircraft, and pursued by the Italian forces aided by local informers. In spite of hardships and increasing risks, Omar courageously continued the fight, but on September 11, 1931, he was ambushed near Zonta. With dignity and calm he faced up to the immediate situation and accepted his death sentence with the words: "From God we came and to God we must return." The execution of the old fighter--carried out in the concentration camp of Solluq on September 16--caused great indignation in the Arab world.

Libyan Leader Aims for Separate Cyrenaican State | Jan. 7, 2014 |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Feb 19th, 2022 at 07:53:58 PM EST

Zelensky the idiot puppet of Joe Biden ...

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Feb 19th, 2022 at 08:47:18 PM EST
I think the German ambassador to Ukraine, Anka Feldhusen, already told Zelensky that Budapest Memorandum is vague enough to be practically void anyway.

A Russian analyst said in Izvestya that Ukraine never had nuclear weapons, they were Soviet Nukes, and when Russia became the successor state (taking all the debts etc) the nukes went to Russia, too. As demanded by US and UK at the time.

by pelgus on Sat Feb 19th, 2022 at 10:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Translation : Promises made by "great powers" are only binding on those who believe them.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 06:48:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

When the rationale across the globe is turned upside down ... catastrofe can't be far away. Another Apocalypse Now.

Many articles written about Anne Applebaum and partner Radek Sikorski leading warmongers and Russophobes.

Anne Applebaum diaries @BooMan

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Feb 19th, 2022 at 10:24:31 PM EST
by Cat on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 01:55:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 02:03:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sniper rifles ...

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 11:18:50 AM EST
Kiev troops open fire at Donetsk People Republic's southern areas - JCCC | Tass - Feb. 15, 2021 |

Ukrainian government troops fired several shells at areas surrounding the village of Zaichenko in the south of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).

... three rounds were fired towards the village from a tripod-mounted man-portable antitank gun. The fire came from positions held by Ukrainian troops, east of the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

Another self-proclaimed eastern Ukrainian republic, the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR), said it was forced to open fire at positions held by Ukrainian troops after one of its servicemen had been killed by a sniper.

"Today, Kiev militants <...> opened sniper fire at our positions near the village of Golubovskoye," a spokesman for LPR militia, Anton Mikuzhis, said on Tuesday. "Our defender was killed as a result of Ukrainian aggression. In order to protect civilians and avoid new casualties among the People's Militia, our defenders were forced to return fire."

SBU is holding counter-sabotage exercises

In a separate development, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), said on Tuesday it was holding sweeping counter-sabotage exercises in the majority of the country's regions.

"SBU is holding counter-sabotage exercises in the majority of Ukrainian regions. Security measures have been stepped up at state borders and strategically important facilities.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 11:19:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Kiev's Thwarted Attack Against LPR's Positions Resulted in Civilian Casualties, Lugansk Says | Feb. 20, 2022 |

Ukrainian forces shelled multiple settlements overnight in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) in Ukraine's southeast, according to the DPR mission to the Joint Centre for Control and Coordination on the ceasefire regime (JCCC).

The Ukrainian forces attempted to attack the positions of the People's Militia of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic (LPR), but suffered losses and retreated, the people's police of the LPR said on Sunday.

    "At around 5 am on 20 February, fighters of the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade made an attempt to attack the positions of the People's Militia in the area of the settlement of Pionerskoye, crossing the Seversky Donets River. As a result of the clash, the enemy suffered losses and retreated," the people's police said in a statement.

A thwarted attack by Kiev forces led to the destruction of five homes and casualties among the civilian population, the LPR people's police said.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 11:20:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Solely based on Russian sources ... found no verification from other sources.

Ukrainian army spin doctors coordinate intl media in "JFO" zone - LPR militia | Luhansk Media Center - Feb. 15, 2022 |

Officers of the Ukrainian army information and psychological operations units coordinate the work of international journalists as part of the Crushing Sword information campaign in the so-called Joint Forces Operation zone ("JFO"), Lugansk People's Republic People's Militia press service officer Anton Mikuzhis said.

"We observe the work of journalists of the U.S. television channels NBC and ABC in the Stanitsa Luganskaya and Schastye settlement areas, a shooting team of the Romanian television channel Antena TV in the Krymskoye area and Bosnia's O Kanal in the Severodonetsk area for the Crushing Sword information campaign," Mikuzhis said. "Officers of the Ukrainian army information and psychological operations units are coordinating the actions of western journalists."

The assembly of foreign mass media outlets in the designated areas is not accidental, he said.

"This is where our intelligence is recoding the presence of Ukrainian special task force units from the "West" Special Operations Centre, who have arrived to carry out provocations," the LPR militia representative said.

Leveraging the Media: The Embedded Media Program in Operation Iraqi Freedom

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 11:22:15 AM EST
Already this morning French gov radio was reporting that a the Ukrainian convoy of the PM, which included in it numerous journalists, had been targeted and that miraculously no one was hurt.
https:/www.rtbf.be/article/ukraine-des-obus-explosent-pres-du-ministre-de-l-interieur-en-visite-sur -le-front-10938863
/www.journaldemontreal.com/2022/02/19/ukraine--des-obus-explosent-pres-du-ministre-ukrainien- de-linterieur-sur-le-front
by Tom2 on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 03:52:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ukraine change of tactics to long term Joint Forces Operation in Donbas | Carnegie - May 3, 2018 |

The gap between U.S. and EU views on Ukraine is hindering an effective Western strategy to end the war in the country's eastern region.

Ukraine's "antiterrorist operation" in the eastern region of Donbas officially ended. In its place, President Petro Poroshenko launched a "joint forces operation," which was proposed by the National Security and Defence Council and mandated by a law passed earlier this year to reintegrate the Donbas.

The label "antiterrorist operation" (ATO), which was announced in April 2014, was a misnomer from the start, reflecting a global trend of extending the use of the term "terrorism" instead of the realities on the ground. The ATO was established under Poroshenko's predecessor, Oleksandr Turchynov, in response to the growing unrest and the seizure of government buildings in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv that preceded Russian military support for separatists in parts of the Donbas. It was originally conceived as a short-term measure. By comparison, the joint forces operation (JFO) has a longer-term perspective; that is, until the Donbas and Crimea are fully reintegrated into the Ukrainian state.

The main practical difference between the two operations is that the control over the implementation of Ukrainian policy in the war zone switched from the security service (SBU) to Ukraine's armed forces.

The restructuring of operations in the war zone in Donbas also coincided with the arrival of U.S. Javelin anti-tank missiles (defined as lethal but defensive) to Ukraine. This is not military aid in the direct sense of the word--Ukraine is meant to purchase the Javelin missiles and Javelin Command Launch Units, following the approval of the foreign military sale (for an estimated $47 million) by the U.S. State Department in March 2018.

The official Ukrainian and U.S. positions are that the systems strengthen Ukraine's long-term defensive capacity. In European political and military circles the delivery of lethal weapons to Ukraine is seen more critically, and fears of an unnecessary escalation of the conflict prevail.

Ukrainian Activists Leak Personal Information of Thousands of War Reporters in the Donbas - May 2016

Related reading ...

Conflict in Ukraine's Donbas: A Visual Explainer | Crisisgroup |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 11:23:56 AM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 12:46:02 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 12:46:48 PM EST

Launch of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile as part of a planned exercise of strategic deterrence forces led by Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the RF Armed Forces Vladimir Putin

#Ministry of Defense #RussianArmy #Teaching #Dagger

Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces heads strategic deterrence forces exercise

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 12:55:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
GOLD 🥇 Finland beats ROC 2-1 in thriller ...

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 12:56:28 PM EST
Finland claims first-ever hockey gold at Beijing Olympics
"We have to be proud of what we've accomplished," coach Jukka Jalonen said after the game.

The Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) took the silver medal and the bronze went to Slovakia. The win brings Finland's medal haul to eight at the Beijing games, with Finland now ranked 15th in the table.
The Olympic hockey tournament had started off in difficult fashion, with coach Jalonen complaining that his star forward Marko Anttila was stuck in quarantine for an extended period. But Anttila was released and helped his team to some memorable wins. In the semi-final Finland had defeated Slovakia 2-0 thanks to goals from Sakari Manninen and Harri Pesonen. Earlier in the tournament this team had come back from 3-0 down to defeat arch-rivals Sweden 4-3, sparking joyous celebrations from Finns.

trailing poor sportsmanship on parade
Beijing's Olympics close, ending odd global moment
A PILE of figure-skating RUBBLE created by Russian misbehavior. A new Chinese champion -- from California. An ace American skier who faltered and went home empty-handed. The end of the Olympic line for the world's most renowned snowboarder. All inside an anti-Covid "closed loop"[?] enforced by China's authoritarian government.

The TERRARIUM of a Winter Games that has been Beijing 2022 came to its end Sunday, capping an UNPRECEDENTED Asian Olympic trifecta and sending the planet's most global sporting event off to the West [?] for the foreseeable future, with no chance of returning to this corner of the world until at least 2030.

It was weird. It was messy and, at the same time, somehow sterile. It was controlled and calibrated in ways only Xi Jinping's China could pull off. And it was sequestered in a "bubble" that kept participants and the city around them -- and, by extension, the SPORADICALLY WATCHING world -- at arm's length.

in a pandemic
by Cat on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 05:09:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In case the old man passes away suddenly before the 2024 recall 😉

"We have been and remain open for serious diplomacy ... we have put concrete proposals on the table .. we have engaged through NATO, through OSCE, and bilateral dialogues."

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 02:25:50 PM EST
"Let us recognize the position he's in," Harris said of Zelenskyy, according to pool reports. "His country is virtually surrounded by Russian troops. This is my belief, based on just my own assessment and speculation: He came here make a very clear point that he does not stand alone. The Allied relationship is such that we have agreed that the deterrence effect of these sanctions is still a meaningful one. We still sincerely hope that there is a diplomatic path out of this moment. As the President has said, we believe that Putin has made his decision. Period. Let's really take a moment to understand the significance of what we're talking about. It's been over 70 years. And through those 70 years, as I mentioned yesterday, there has been peace and security. We are talking about the real possibility of war in Europe."
8 June 2021
by Cat on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 05:22:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 02:28:17 PM EST

Joe Biden's Plan to Partition Iraq Would Have Unleashed Chaos | The Intercept - Sept. 2019 |

Asked to respond to criticism of his judgement on Iraq, like his Senate vote to authorize the use of force in 2002, and his much-derided later proposal to divide the country in three along sectarian lines, Joe Biden laughed and assured that "the vast majority of the foreign policy community thinks it's been very good."

It was not clear if the former vice president had any specific foreign policy experts in mind, but the interview was recorded just after the death of Leslie Gelb, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations who advised Biden on Iraq. As Biden recalled in a statement three years earlier, Gelb had co-authored his 2006 plan to pave the way for the United States to withdraw its troops from Iraq by segregating the country's three major ethno-religious groups -- Arab Shias, Arab Sunnis, and Kurds -- into self-governing regions.

Biden plan for 'soft partition' of Iraq gains momentum | NY Times - July 30, 2007 | by Helene Cooper

Similar to views by the U.S. military, the two argue that ethnic tensions threaten Iraq's long-term stability and are calling for the establishment of three (or more) semi-autonomous ethnic regions linked by a power-sharing agreement in Baghdad.

Just interchange with Donbas and Kyiv to end ethnic tensions, end war rhetoric ...

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 02:30:30 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 02:34:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Terrifying... I start to understand why my NY Dutch left friend said she prefered Trump2 than Biden at the last election.
by Tom2 on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 03:45:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Forward looking ...

Will the EU-27 Survive the Biden Years? | Sept. 9, 2021 |

Backed in a corner due to domestic issues of BBB and cutting out foreign competition to ensure MAGA in support of national manufacturing. The EU supporting its own demise by backing US led NATO in a conflict at the Russian border with Ukraine.

The revenge of Boris Johnson and Brexit ...

The message I am taking to @MunSecConf today is that allies must speak with one voice to stress to President Putin the high price he will pay for any further Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Will tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border push up UK gas prices?

Not directly. The UK sources very little of its gas from Russia - less than 5%, in fact.

Can Europe survive painlessly without Russian gas? | Bruegel |

If Russian gas stops flowing, measures to replace supply won't be enough. The European Union will need to curb demand, implying difficult and costly decisions.

Biden and US corporations willing to "help" ...

US finalizing plans to divert gas to Europe if Russia cuts off supply

Does it matter who will occupy the White House by the end of 2024?

Salvaging Transatlanticism, With or Without Trump | Clingendael - Jan. 2018 |

Keep jobs in America ... MAGA! Inflation?
Will hit the poorest the hardest for cost of living ... housing.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 05:55:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not getting the idea from the press in the US that Europe is taking a unified stand on this. It's all "Biden and Putin talk about X." Maybe that is just our lousy US-centric press. Or maybe it is Europe sitting back and assuming that this whole thing will fizzle out and not impinge on what is considered important. Like gas, territory, human beings, economies...
by asdf on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 05:03:42 PM EST
Facts ...

Follow the tweets Munich Security Conference (MSC)

The standing ovation for President Zelensky as illustration it was a fan club of Ukraine and US-NATO policy of warmongering.

A few days ago all leaders gathered at NATO HQ in Brussels.

I have no recollection of a historic precedent of sworn unity. As far as EU Commission, just sickening. Sovereignty my a$$.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 06:04:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

m'k. Let's recap.
RT | Ukraine makes nuclear status threat, 19 Feb

He also said that Ukraine tried to initiate consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum three times as part of an effort to review its terms - without any success.
Kyiv Independent | Zelensky wants Budapest Memorandum signatories to give new security guarantees for Ukraine.
If Ukraine doesn't receive actual security guarantees from the signatories - the U.S., the U.K. and Russia - Ukraine will consider all provisions of the 1994 agreement void. Within the agreement, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal.
Politico.eu.com | Ukraine's nuclear lesson: Don't trust Russia's security `guarantees'
Kostenko, a 70-year-old Ukrainian politician, was at the forefront of Ukraine's nuclear disarmament in the 1990s, with stints as environment minister and nuclear safety minister. For six months, he was also Kyiv's lead negotiator over the nuclear deal. In retrospect, he said, Ukraine should have managed its own nuclear disarmament and held out until it had more ironclad protections from Western allies, such as NATO membership, instead of trading short-term concessions for pledges of peace and security.

"Looking back, Ukraine's nuclear disarmament, in the way it happened, was a terrible mistake," he said.

Brookings | The Budapest Memorandum and U.S. Obligations, 4 Dec 2014
If a North Korean diplomat [!] were to ask his or her Ukrainian counterpart how the Budapest memorandum worked out, the response would not be a happy one. At a September conference in Kyiv, former President Leonid Kuchma, who signed the Budapest memorandum for Ukraine, said that Ukraine had been "cheated." Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk referred to the "notorious" Budapest memorandum. Such comments do not make good advertisements for future security assurances.
wikiwtf | Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances
According to the memorandum,[15] Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and ...
wikiwtf | List of parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
by Cat on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 06:18:51 PM EST
by Cat on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 06:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
conclusion ...

Since being forced to leave Crimea, Ramazanov has no plans to flee again. After a lifetime of peaceful protest, he is learning how to handle a gun, as well as tactical medicine.

"We've got nowhere else to run," he says. "I won't leave here."  

by Cat on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 06:48:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ismail Ramazanov fled to Kyiv three years ago. A Crimean Muslim Tatar who was an outspoken critic of Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, Russian security services raided his house in Crimea in January 2018 and he was so badly beaten he could not stand in court the next day when he was charged with inciting hatred.  

The Crimean Tatars were exiled from Crimea by Josef Stalin in 1944 and only returned after the USSR collapsed, becoming Ukrainian citizens. Many oppose Russia's annexation. An estimated 60,000 to 100,000 people have left Crimea for mainland Ukraine since 2014.

Good Morning America! Crimea Is Integrated In Russian Federation | March 18, 2014 |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 08:29:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sürgün: The Crimean Tatars' deportation and exile

Simultaneous to the deportation and the scattering of the Crimean Tatar people, the central authorities launched a policy of « detatarization » in the Crimean peninsula: the main monuments and places which recalled the Tatar presence were destroyed; books about Crimean Tatars or written by Crimean Tatar authors were removed from the library shelves and some were burnt; place names were russianized. The status of the peninsula was also changed: the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (ASSR), which was established in 1921 (in which Crimean Tatars enjoyed a positive discrimination), became under the law of July 25, 1946 an oblast (an administrative term which means region), forming part of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR).

The passing of this law achieved the process of « detatarization », even as the settlement of Russian-speaking or Ukrainian settlers into the houses deserted by the Tatars was carried out. In 1954, the Crimean oblast was offered to Ukraine to mark the celebrations of the 300th anniversary of the union between Russia and Ukraine. That internal decision, which did not have an immediate effect, proved to be decisive after the USSR disintegrated.

Stalin's death in 1953 raised hope amongst Crimean Tatar special settlers. However, their hope was quickly dashed. Indeed, they were excluded from the processes of rehabilitation led by Nikita Khrushchev in 1956. Thus, whereas most of the punished people regained their political rights and were authorized to return to their former homelands, Crimean Tatars, as well as Volga Germans and Turk-Meskhetians, were sentenced to a prolonged exile. If from this year on they regained their civic rights as individuals, going back to Crimea remained forbidden. Moreover, this decision meant the negation of the collective existence of Crimean Tatars.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 08:38:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Deportation of Muslims from Georgia

Among the explanations advanced for the deportation, two facts stand out. On the one hand, the population lived in a mountainous region bordering Turkey, which was an undeclared ally of Nazi Germany. On the other hand, those who were deported as 'Turks, Hemshinli (Armenian Muslims) and Kurds' were all Sunni Muslim in culture and were mostly Turkophone.

The deportees referred to by the name of 'Turks' and then 'Soviet Turks' have always had a problematic ethnic identity. Tsarist censuses referred to them by different names: Sunni Georgians, Ottomans, Azerbaijanis. Subsequently, the mere fact that they were Muslim was enough to make them potential allies of the Turks in the eyes of the Soviet authorities - especially since the border between Soviet Georgia and Turkey was well known for being porous.

San Bernardino Terror Link to Tatars by Marriage by Oui on Dec. 9th, 2015

The Boston terror attack was perpetrated by Tsjarnajev brothers from the Caucasus with ties to Chechen terror. Same Caucasus terrorists are fighting in Syria and in Ukraine against Russian military or jihadist cause.

Recent friction between Azerbaijan (Muslims) and Armenia (Christians) where the conflict was halted by consultation between Turkey and Russia. The latter provided peacekeepers (see also attack by Georgia on Russian peace mission in South Ossetia in August 2008).

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 08:41:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 06:20:39 PM EST

Joint exercises in Belarus have ended. The Russian military forces will stay due to an environment of aggression by NATO on the frontier with Russia.

Do not look surprised when US Congress, UK and Europe announce "pre-emptive" sanctions on Putin and Russia in coming days.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 06:22:04 PM EST
I think Putin stated already after recent talks with Lukanshenko that he has accepted West will sanction Russia no matter what happens now.

So much de-escalation around everyone is just waiting the other side to fire the first shot. And I don't mean the "alleged" artillery and mortar fire in Donbass even OSCE says in unprecedented since 2014.

Some refugees have said it's actually worse now that in 2014, but I guess it depends where you live.

by pelgus on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 08:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 06:23:11 PM EST
Each effort to open talks is immediately knocked down by more warmongering ...

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 06:25:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Sudan people demonstrate every day, and every day people are killed by the army and the police. No sanctions, no embargo. A demonstrator explained to RFI that the government is putting all its money in the repression; he seems to think that this is the way to make them weary.
Maybe we will end up like them.
by Tom2 on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 06:38:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indication of all out war between the US and Russia ...

Security Alert: U.S. Mission Russia (February 20, 2022)

Event:  According to media sources, there have been threats of attacks against shopping centers, railway and metro stations, and other public gathering places in major urban areas, including Moscow and St. Petersburg as well as in areas of heightened tension along the Russian border with Ukraine.

Headline of UK's The Guardian ...

US embassy tells Americans in Russia to "have evacuation plans"

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 09:41:41 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 09:42:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 10:52:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 09:43:01 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 09:43:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Never a debate, or deepen the discussion, embedded in the State Department ... a compliant CNN.

Is French President Macron used as a fig leaf of diplomacy?

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 09:46:14 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 06:49:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
US Intelligence from imminent, to next week, to Wednesday February 16 @03:00hrs and now within hours ...

Zelensky rips the West for inaction as shelling makes Russia-Ukraine war seem increasingly imminent | WaPo |

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky forcefully demanded stronger actions from world leaders as the threat of full-scale attack by Russia intensifies amid increased shelling in the eastern separatist regions of his country.

"The security architecture of our world is brittle, it is obsolete," Zelensky said on Saturday during a defiant speech at a security conference in Munich. He accused governments of "egotism," "arrogance" and "appeasement" as he urged Western leaders to publicly state their plans for sanctions on Russia, saying that after the war begins would be too late.

"Action is needed," he insisted, adding that "this is not about war in Ukraine, this is about war in Europe."

Zelensky's sharp rebuke of Kyiv's allies comes as the United States sounds its most dire warnings yet about the likelihood of a resumed Russian invasion of Ukraine, and as fresh shelling prompts new turmoil -- and finger-pointing -- in the country's east.

US Congress can't complain of President Zelensky's regained self-confidence at the Munich Festival of like-minded war hawks.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 09:47:19 PM EST

Would not have been appreciated by China's Xi Jinping.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 10:16:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 10:17:42 PM EST

OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) Daily Report 39/2022 issued on 19 February 2022

US and UK members of OSCE Mission have pulled out without a reasonable argument.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 10:18:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No wonder. No basis for factual analysis of compliance with so-called rules of engagement agreed by hostile parties, given that the OSCE "observations" are academic. It's technical system is neither designed for objective warranty nor committed to site-specific HUMINT verification. Which is, I suppose, exactly the set of conditions US-UK arbiters of "just war", self-styled guarantors of "international norms" prefer: plausible deniability, a founding principle of the OPWC established in the wake of NATO "Gulf Wars".

Around that time, last week I chanced on a youtube video recording of an OSCE "mission" report. I do not recall that the recording was date stamped, but it could not have been live-feed. In retrospect, the running time posted was almost 2 hrs, and it appears OSCE hasn't posted a "monitor" report since November. The ahhh functionaries' lingua franca was *-Eng, but I wasn't pay close attention until a perfunctory recitation of "observed," yet indiscriminate, artillery incidents surfaced about 30 min into the ritual. The numbers didn't startle me; the method did, because it disabuse me in short order of the quality and scope of stationed radio devices along on hastily drawn borders which identification and "accountability" of purported "unlawful" combatants rely.

At which point, I quit listening. Know this: Technical Monitoring on the Contact Line: making it work for people is no way to enforce "rules of engagement".

First introduced by the SMM in 2015, camera systems quickly became an important means of technical monitoring, along with unmanned aerial vehicles. Today, the Mission has 25 operational cameras along the nearly 500-kilometre ["]contact line["].

While Monitoring Officers do not patrol after nightfall due to [SMM personnel] security reasons, the cameras have the technical capability to also record after dark, working around the clock. The cameras, along with other technical means, allow the SMM to ["]do["]24/7 monitoring, registering ceasefire violations and weapons in violation of [INSERT AGREEMENT].

Since they were introduced, camera systems have picked up over 279,900 ceasefire violations.

the abject FAILURE of any and all "peace keeping" authority and "missions"
They are a cornerstone of the Mission's technical monitoring capabilities, allowing it to fulfil the tasks assigned in its mandate and to support the implementation of the [INSERT AGREEMENT].
But it does a fine job accrediting hotel-based "journalism" and investment in other risk-free, remote warfare.
by Cat on Wed Feb 23rd, 2022 at 02:54:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 10:19:20 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 11:05:08 PM EST

At this moment in crisis, Zelensky and Stoltenberg are useless ... good for the bühne 🌪

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Feb 20th, 2022 at 11:52:22 PM EST
If Russia dies not invade further ...

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 02:45:12 AM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 02:50:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not long ago, at least there was "communication" on world affairs, sometimes thanks to hacking of email exchanges between states ... the Biden administration just shuts down diplomacy and pushes its own agenda. How to handle a bully ...

Trump's 'Diplomacy by Tweet' Raises Eyebrows | VOA News |

President Donald Trump said he would like to meet North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un "just to shake his hand and say hello"

Conveying threats by tweets, does this count as "diplomacy"? Perhaps Joe Biden could take a few lessons from the former president.

Escalation by Tweet: Managing diplomacy in the new nuclear age

Social media has quickly become part of the geopolitical landscape, and international leaders and officials are increasingly taking to Twitter during crises. For US decision-makers, however, Twitter presents a bit of a paradox: on the one hand, tweets from government officials may help shape the American public narrative and provide greater insights into US decision-making to reduce misperception by foreign actors.

On the other hand, tweets may increase misperception and sow confusion during crises, creating escalation incentives for an adversary. To reconcile this paradox, we examine the use of Twitter by international leaders during crises in recent years, some of which involved nuclear-armed states. In so doing, we explore the changing nature of escalation, which now resembles a complex web more than a ladder, and examine specific escalation pathways involving social media.

Based on this analysis, we find that social media has the potential to be
a disruptive technology and exacerbate tensions during crises. To reduce the risk of tweets contributing to escalation in a crisis, we recommend the US Department of Defense:

  • lead an interagency effort to develop best practices on the use of social
    media during crises;
  • encourage leaders and officials to refrain from tweeting during crises
    and instead rely on more traditional means of communication, such
    as press releases and official statements;
  • explore how to build public resilience to disinformation campaigns
    and provocations via social media during crises, as the American public
    is asymmetrically vulnerable to these attacks; and
  • improve understanding of how various international actors use social media.
  • Twitter, as a company, and alliances such as NATO, also have a role to play in limiting the negative impact of Twitter during crises. If these findings could be summarised in 280 characters or less, it would be: 'To manage escalation during crises, stop tweeting.'

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 07:27:20 AM EST

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 07:31:37 AM EST
    I'm just trying to get the story straight :
    If I understand the gist of this diary :
    • Ukraine is on the point of invading the Donetsk and Luhansk enclaves
    • Zelensky is Biden's puppet

    I suppose this means that Biden is forcing Zelensky to cross the line, because it's obviously not in Zelensky's or Ukraine's interest.

    It's not documented here, but I think we can all acknowledge that Russian troops would defend the enclaves, successfully.

    I know Biden is not a skilful chess player, but I can't understand why he would make such a blunder. Can anybody help?

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 07:59:11 AM EST
    I don't know if there is a straight story to be found...

    When there were only a few hundred people evacuated, mostly schoolkids, I kinda had my doubts that it was mostly for the show to bring the untenable position of the Donbass into front and center, but now it's +60,000 and with continuous shelling, mobilization of every 18-55 year old male and reports of car bombs harming infrastructure and UAF raid into "area of joint operations", I must admit it looks like it's for real.

    I don't know if Zelensky is Biden's puppet, bacause that would imply that a) Zelensky is in control of UAF and b) Biden is in control of US foreign policy.
    Some analysts said about Zelensky's speech in Munich that he seems to have finally understood how Ukraine is just a tool for anti-Russia purposes.

    I've read a couple of Ukrainian analysts or commentators (of opposition) say that West has obviously selected Lviv as the new capital, which means they expect Ukraine to split very soon.

    Many seem to think that Ukraine will be sacrificed to enable the "sanctions from hell" that will finally split EU from Russia and make it depend on US energy thus ensuring loyalty in the coming fight against China. I think that's, while somewhat plausible, is way beyond the capabilities of the current breed of wheelers and dealers in "deep state".

    by pelgus on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 08:46:45 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    So, if the Ukranian armed forces are really intensively shelling the enclaves, and if this is the reason why the population are massively fleeing, spontaneously or not (if indeed they are), then why are they doing so?

    I don't know why there seem to be no foreign correspondents in the enclaves, are they having visa problems or something?

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 09:47:21 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe it's not the Ukrainian armed forces, but some units (like the Nazis) in the Ukrainian forces?
    by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 10:19:44 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    The existence of nazis and other nutbag nationalists on the Ukranian site is very helpful for Putin. He has been winding them up, and whether they are under the control of the Ukraine military or not is an important question.

    Likewise there is the question (does anyone know?) of whether the local peoples' militias are actually in control on the front line in the people's republics; or whether the Wagner people are giving the orders. I would prefer the latter; not because they are nice people, but because they generally obey orders. Meaning that any provocations would be strategic, rather than random.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 01:09:37 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Recalling the botched attempt by Ukrainian Intelligence to lure a bunch of Donbass fighters into Ukrainian airspace by offering them fake mercenary contracts in Turkey, there may not be any difference between the militia commanders and Wagner people.

    Meanwhile, Russians are reporting one border station being destroyed by a stray ammunition from Ukraine (no casualties) and two Ukrainian BMP's entering Russia this morning (both destroyed by Russians). Suspected to be an Ukrainian raiding party trying to avoid the LPR militias.

    by pelgus on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 01:19:25 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    if the Ukranian armed forces are really intensively shelling the enclaves,

    Looking at the OSCEs maps and comparisions to the sort of base line seize fire violations, I would rather say that we can know that the Ukranian armed forces has escalated the shelling. How intense it is, is hard to grasp.

    and if this is the reason why the population are massively fleeing, spontaneously or not (if indeed they are)

    I would say that it is more a question of evacuation, as I understand that the rebel authorities has declared that military age men will be conscripted and the rest evacuated. How much people are following those orders is unclear. The reasoning here on part of the rebels is clear, if they think an attack is coming, better to evacuate and mobilise ahead of schedule.

    then why are they doing so?

    This is where I fear that the conflict takes on a life of its own and that the Azov Battalion or any other sufficiently motivated group can start the war simply by increasing the seize fire violations. Its not like the rebels won't return fire, indeed they are primed to do so. And any Ukrainian military unit coming under attack is primed to shoot back. And militaries has plans for different scenarios and if they think something is happening, they will execute those plans.

    And that is in the best case scenario, in the worst case scenario the Ukraian military is intentionally attacking (but it is starting somewhat cautiosly for some reason). I don't know why they would do that, but militaries tends to have among their plans include plans that are not always very rational on the larger scale.

    Defence Scheme No. 1 has a place of honor among crazy military schemes:

    Defence Scheme No. 1 was created on April 12, 1921, and detailed a surprise invasion of the northern United States as soon as possible after evidence was received of a US invasion of Canada. It assumed that the US would first attempt to capture Montreal and Ottawa and then Hamilton, Toronto, the Prairie Provinces, and Vancouver and the rest of Southwestern British Columbia. Defence Scheme No. 1's US counterpart was War Plan Red, a plan to invade Canada as part of a war with Britain that was created in 1930.[1]

    The purpose of invading the US was to allow time for Canada to prepare its war effort and to receive aid from Britain. According to the plan, Canadian flying columns stationed in Pacific Command in western Canada would immediately be sent to seize Seattle, Spokane, and Portland. Troops stationed in Prairie Command would attack Fargo and Great Falls, then advance towards Minneapolis. Troops from Quebec would be sent to seize Albany in a surprise counterattack while troops from the Maritime Provinces would invade Maine. When resistance grew, the Canadian soldiers would retreat to their own borders, destroying bridges and railways to delay US military pursuit.[1][2]

    by fjallstrom on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 10:45:29 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) (Pop. 2.3 million -- Area 3,437 sq.mi.)

    Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) (Pop. 1.46 million -- Area 3,234 sq.mi.)

    Crimea Occupied Territory (Pop. 2.4 million -- Area 10,000 sq.mi.)

    Merge and Rule: What's In Store for the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics | Carnegie - March 2021 |

    Moscow-approved leaders--Denis Pushilin in the DNR and Leonid Pasechnik in the LNR--won virtually uncontested elections in 2018, while only ruling and spoiler parties were allowed to participate in local legislative elections.

    Party lists were comprised of members of local elites with prewar Ukrainian political experience: former Party of Regions youth activist Denis Miroshnichenko became the head of the LNR People's Council, while the former Communist Party parliamentary deputy Vladimir Bidyovka was chosen to lead the DNR legislature. Meanwhile, locally registered Communist parties weren't allowed to take part in the elections.

    The only real opposition to the republics' current leadership comes from influential separatist veterans, but the authorities thwart their political aspirations: the Donbas Republican Party created by one of the DNR's founding fathers and former head of legislature, Andrei Purgin, was denied registration.

    Profiling IDP situation in Luhansk region, Ukraine | Norwegian Refugee Council - 2021 |

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 12:05:15 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    I think the situation is getting messy.

    I think Zelensky has a very weak position, given the weakness of the Ukrainian government and its dependency on the US. As an example, Biden as vice president bragged about getting the Ukrainian Attorny General fired. The debate centered on wheter he did it to protect his son, but the point that the US VP could have the Ukrainian AG fired, was as far as I know never disputed. But I don't think Zelensky is a puppet of Biden, if so he wouldn't have gone of script several times regarding the impending invasion narrative.

    Given the US medias narrative of "The Russians are coming" and weapons shipments to Ukraine, the withdrawal of US and UK OSCE inspectors from the frontline, and the neo-nazi Azov battalion being hailed on US media (mostly without mentioning that it is the Azov battalion), I think if the governments wants to halt the build up of tensions, it is no longer clear that they can. The Azov battalion probably have both the means and the motive to start the war.

    And yes, if Ukrainian forces attacks the rebels, Russia will most likely respond and win the military fight. This will no doubt be descirbed as an unprovoced  Russian attack on Ukraine, paving the way for more sanctions and stopping the Nord Stream 2 (that at least Biden claims he can stop), and possibly ending more gas supplies from Russia to the EU. In turn creating a captured market for US LNG, and long term weakening EU and tying it tighter to the US. In addition a war can create a new wave of refugees to strenghten the far right within the EU.

    Was this the intended result? Maybe, but escalations has a tendency to take a life of their own.

    And here I was thinking it was merely the ploy from "Wag the dog" with a fake war to amp up arms sales and patriotism. Seems no matter how cynical one gets, there is always more steps.

    by fjallstrom on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 10:15:22 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    All this is precisely why I have been backing a strong European response to Putin (historically I am, to put it mildly, not a NATO hawk). Because the whole current crisis exists, and escalates, only because Putin wants it to. And I don't imagine for a single second that the situation is getting out of hand from Putin's point of view; I think he's loving it.

    I keep coming back to the idea that it's all about Germany, and the SPD's great project of economic integration of Russia into Europe. In that respect, things have evolved significantly over the weekend : the Chancellor and the President, who were both firm partisans of Scröder's legacy, have now felt obliged to back their Foreign Minister... this is not necessarily what Putin intended.

    Interesting times. The Energiewende announced by the coalition depends implicitly on Russian gas... but gas is eminently fungible.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 02:38:06 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    All this is precisely why I have been backing a strong European response to Putin (historically I am, to put it mildly, not a NATO hawk). Because the whole current crisis exists, and escalates, only because Putin wants it to. And I don't imagine for a single second that the situation is getting out of hand from Putin's point of view; I think he's loving it.

    Here is where we see things differently. I am sure Putin will attempt to use this crisis, in particular if he has concluded that sanctions are a given anyway. But fundamentally, I see it as driven by a US media campaign. My grounds for that are:

    • Scott Ritter, and other commentators, who has been arguing during the fall that there is no invasion force gathered on the border, but that the US media campaign counts troops on Russian bases a fair distance from the border.
    • That the Ukrainian government - primarily Zelensky - has several times tried to tamp down the media campaign.
    • That the US refuses to present any evidence for its assertions, indeed getting huffy when a journalist asks what the evidence is. Lets see if I manage to embed a tweet, otherwise follow the link to twitter to see the clip with Ned Price and Matt Lee.

    Really, the last one should be sufficient. If one power claims that another is about to wage war, they have the burden of proof. I think US propaganda learned from the Iraq war media campaing to not focus on faked evidence and statements that can be proven as lies, but instead doing a Gish gallop of claims based on secret evidence, leaks from unnamed officials, etc to create the desired story, which lasts even if parts are debunked.

    Therefore I don't think a more robust answer to Putin would have helped, I think the US attempt of getting  the EU countries in line is part of whatever it is they are doing.

    I keep coming back to the idea that it's all about Germany, and the SPD's great project of economic integration of Russia into Europe. In that respect, things have evolved significantly over the weekend : the Chancellor and the President, who were both firm partisans of Scröder's legacy, have now felt obliged to back their Foreign Minister... this is not necessarily what Putin intended.

    Interesting times. The Energiewende announced by the coalition depends implicitly on Russian gas... but gas is eminently fungible.

    That could very well be the real focus. But again, since I think it is US driving the crisis (unless they have lost control), I think a rift between Germany and Russia is what the US intended.

    And if so it is working:

    So far this month, the European Union has received U.S. natural gas volumes five times higher than Russia's pipeline deliveries, according to Polish outlet rp.pl, the first time in history in which American LNG has surpassed Russian gas deliveries.  

    That was mid-January.

    by fjallstrom on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 04:01:43 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Wow. The US media forced Putin to make unrealistic demands to reorganise European security, and now they have forced him to send troops into the Donbass.

    Sorry for the irony, but I don't see Biden's signature on this crisis. My tendency was to see Putin messing with the US midterms by humiliating Biden.

    On the other hand, I don't understand the gas market. An explainer diary would be useful, becaus I think you do.

    For starters : is it a given that Russian gas stops flowing through Ukraine today? Or is that contingent on whether they cross the ceasefire line?

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 08:15:49 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    If we look at the timeline, the US media campaign started early November with 90 000 troops. It got Ukriane on board 3rd of November after the minister of defense was replaced:

    KYIV, Ukraine (AP) -- Ukraine complained Wednesday that Russia has kept tens of thousands of troops not far from the countries' border after war games, as part of its attempts to exert pressure on its ex-Soviet neighbor.

    The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's statement marked an about-turn from its denial of any Russian military buildup -- as reported in U.S. media -- just two days earlier.

    The ministry said Wednesday that about 90,000 Russian troops are stationed not far from the border and in rebel-controlled areas in Ukraine's east. It said specifically that units of the Russian 41st army have remained in Yelnya, about 260 kilometers (about 160 miles) north of the Ukrainian border.

    "Russia has periodically deployed and built up troops to maintain tensions in the region and exert political pressure on neighboring countries," it said.

    On Tuesday, Ukraine's Defense Minister Andriy Taran submitted his resignation and Ukrainian lawmakers quickly approved it Wednesday. Davyd Arakhamia, the head of the parliamentary faction of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Servant of the People party, said Taran had health problems.

    The Russian proposal for a security treaty came one and a half months later:

    Putin's demands include stopping NATO from expanding east, including closing Ukraine's door to membership, and halting its deployment of weapons in neighboring states.

    Ushakov said Putin informed Chinese President Xi Jinping of the U.S. and NATO security guarantee proposal during virtual talks Wednesday.

    "The Chinese president stressed that he [...] fully supports our initiative to develop appropriate security guarantees for Russia," Interfax quoted him as saying.

    Putin's aide added that the Russian leader agreed to keep Xi informed "about how negotiations develop on this matter with American and NATO partners."

    What the actors think they were doing is often not observable until later (when diaries, memos etc becomes accessible for historians, or if they brag about it).

    When the US media starts a campaign to claim that the other side is about to attack, that is part of US preparations for war at least increased sanctions. So if there wasn't a build up at the border (which Russia would know), I think viewing the media story as hostile is reasonable.

    The increased hostilities along the seize fire line in Donbass this week was more from the Ukrainian side, that much we can know from OSCE. We also know that it was portrayed as Russian aggression from day one.

    Were Ukrainian forces about to attack Donbass on a large scale? We don't know.

    If as you say Putin decided to humiliate Biden, why the whole "Russia is about to attack Ukraine" campaign from November and onwards from the US?

    by fjallstrom on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 10:14:36 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    So I'm trying to follow your reasoning here :

    Putin was unjustly getting a bad press about his completely imaginary intentions to invade Ukraine.

    He reacts by demanding a complete redo of European defense arrangements, which none of the other actors concerned are interested in entertaining.

    This vexes him even further.

    Meanwhile, lots of people are getting excited because of the US propaganda campaign, and (controlled/uncontrolled) elements of the Ukraine forces along the Donbass front line have fired some shells.

    Also, (and I have no sources for this) Putin alleges that there is ethnic cleansing going on (how many thousands of ethnic Russian Ukranians have fled to Russia in recent months? Or are they held in secret prison camps?

    After such unbearable provocation, Putin goes on an unhinged rant about how Ukraine has always been a natural part of Russia, and... invades Ukraine.

    And this is a victory for Uncle Joe?

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 11:46:51 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Actually, after reflection (and discussion with my wife) I can converge somewhat with you, Fjallstrom :

    Perhaps Putin and Biden are objective allies, insofar as they are each other's useful idiots :

    Biden is seen to be "standing up to a bully" and to be "proved right" about Putin's malevolent intentions. He could care less about another war in eastern Europe. No skin in the game.

    Putin is delighted to stand up to Biden, to excite his population about alleged Russian greatness, and to have a little low-cost military action. He could care less about his country's economy.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 05:15:50 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    That is very possible, yes.

    And Ukraine is then the big loser, with EU as secondary losers.

    The reason I try to focus on what we know and don't know, is that everyone, and in particular organisations, act on what they think they know, and sometimes they are plain wrong. The Russian government could think that the sanctions won't bite because it would punish the EU more, or they could think that sanctions is coming anyway. Both would lead to ignoring threats of sanctions, regardless of if they are true. The US government could think that by claiming that Russia is about to attack they force the Russian hand, but the predicted move could have been something other than what happened.

    I keep coming back to Failure of a mission, by Sir Nevile Henderson, British embassador to Nazi Germany. He describes appeasement from the inside. Essentially they thought that the Versailles treaty was a mistake that led to the rise of Nazism (and thus far most historians would agree to some extent), therefore it could be turned around by giving Germany the borders it should have gotten in Versailles. And if it gained those borders peacefully it would strengthen the peace wing within the Nazi party. This was proven wrong when Germany invaded rump Czechoslovakia, so Brittain started preparing for war. Henderson was wrong, but it wasn't unreasonable given what they knew.

    On the other side, the German government thought that Brittains acceptance of the annexation of Austria and the Munich treaty was proof that Brittain would never go to war over east Europe and for a long time expected Brittain to stay out or make a separate peace. They were also wrong.

    And the USSR government thought they had bought enough time to build up so they could attack and defeat Nazi Germany. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

    And of course, I could be wrong. If Russia uses Donbas as a spring board and attacks the rest of Ukraine, then I was wrong. That the US is crying wolf doesn't prove there isn't a wolf. But I sure hope there isn't a war.

    by fjallstrom on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 07:08:13 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    About gas, I don't know more then I picked up over the years. I could try to do a starter and we could add to it.
    by fjallstrom on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 10:15:54 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    I was intrigued by your remark that gas storage didn't fit with the European energy market, and I don't understand why European buyers of Russian gas prefer to pay spot prices rather than negotiate long-term contracts.

    So I'm keen.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 11:53:34 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    No one political group invented international, "global," trade in raw, intermediate, and finished goods yesterday or when the USSR devolved into its several sovereign nation-states' governments and treasuries. Neither was the allocation of resources for subsistence, surplus (stored value), nor profit by one  extracted from another's instant want and poverty. Two sides of every trade is the ancient union.

    At this juncture in world history, in some regions, 'consumer' segments, households, accustomed to instant gratification, the 500 ticker symbols, the face of any one business executive, or any one politician masks the fallacy of market equilibrium and ineluctable free trade, paradoxically, enforced by intra-government selections of "trading partners" among nations and corporate trusts among domestic industries.

    At this juncture, while some people fret over the significance of any one politician's motive for apparently upsetting "international norms" of free trade, sovereign states, and political divisions said to constitute a "rational system of government", let us recall that the opening act of Europe's energy "crisis" began in Washington DC to benefit "US-based" oil and gas producers and international investors. U.S. Senators Introduce Expedited LNG for American Allies Act, 2012
    archived Mr Juncker Goes to Washington, EU-U.S. Joint Statement: Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports from the U.S.

    Liang et al., "The role of natural gas as a primary fuel in the near future, including comparisons of acquisition, transmission and waste handling costs of as with competitive alternatives" (2012)

    EIA | Drilling natural gas wells and producing natural gas; wet Natural gas processed for sale and consumption

    Council of Foreign Relations | The Shale Gas and Tight Oil Boom (2013)
    "Rising oil prices help the U.S. petrochemicals industry as long as natural gas prices remain low. If enough domestic natural gas were exported such that U.S. natural gas prices again moved with oil prices, the U.S. petrochemicals industry would no longer benefit from rising oil prices."

    wikiwtf | North Dakota oil boom, 2006-2020
    rig count and pipelines, yanno, like Keystone
    The Atlantic | A North Dakota Oil Boom Goes Bust (2015)

    WorldBank | Rising efficiency gains in U.S. shale oil
    "Booming U.S. shale oil production played a significant role in the oil price plunge from mid-2014 to early 2016. Efficiency gains in the sector lowered break-even prices considerably, making U.S. shale oil the de facto marginal cost producer on the international oil market. "

    BLS | The 2014 plunge in import petroleum prices: What happened? (2015)
    "After peaking at $107.95 a barrel on June 20, 2014, petroleum prices plunged to $44.08 a barrel by January 28, 2015, a drop of 59.2 percent in a little over 7 months"

    by Cat on Wed Feb 23rd, 2022 at 01:24:04 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Now would be a good time to lift the embargo on Iranian oil. Just declare a pause on Iranian sanctions, or declare a breakthrough.

    "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
    by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2022 at 02:48:07 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    The year 2014 was a critical year with the coup d'etat in Kyiv and crisis in Middle East, the quagmire of allied forces in Syria and rise of more extreme IS ... the outrage.

    As I recall US shale oil in those years upset the OPEC markt and in Europe Ukraine was a prime target for future production .. think Burisma. The Gulf States added production to get global price below $60 a barrel to make shale production not profitable.

    Today it will be LNG transport for the immediate future. As I had written it will bite the EU state hard, starting with Germany.

    Life for everyone would be so much better when nations do not let economic competition lead to war, but use diplomacy to settle differences. Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart, that seems a bridge too far for the sole global military power.

    The grievances of Russia were well defined and known. The US didn't much care starting under the Clinton years.

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2022 at 05:37:23 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Wall Street stock markets are at an inflection point ... Dow 10% down from highs, NASDAQ even worse, with debt level quite high, due to inflation the FED needs to raise interest rates that will bite government budget for coming years ... a bit of recession will cool the market down, employment and in the EU at least will squeeze household budget for many as income will lag behind rising cost of living.

    A look at what history shows about past stock market corrections

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2022 at 06:28:42 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Haaretz -- Azov

    Founded as a volunteer militia by members of the Patriot of Ukraine neo-Nazi group during the early days of the war in country's east, in 2014, Azov helped recapture Mariupol from the separatists before being incorporated into the national guard as a regiment. Its troops have been accused of war crimes by the United Nations, while its paramilitary arm, the National Corps, has been linked to attacks on local Roma and members of the LGBT community.

    But while there has been vigilante violence by far-right groups over the past decade, some of it reported by Colborne for Haaretz, violence against Jews is relatively rare - despite years of Russian media reports claiming the opposite.

    Despite the consistently poor showing of Azov's political wing in Ukrainian elections, Russia has consistently played up its existence as evidence that the country is controlled by a fascist junta. Many Ukrainians are loath to discuss the movement, though, calling the allegations against it Kremlin propaganda.
    Ironically, as Russian media was accusing Ukraine of sweeping neo-Nazis under the rug this week, the country's parliament passed a bill on Tuesday establishing financial penalties and prison terms for those convicted of hate crimes against Jews. In order to be enacted, the bill now awaits the signature of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is himself Jewish.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 04:52:26 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Ukrainian oligarchs are well balanced to keep both sides satisfied - pro- and anti-Russia

    Israel and especially Netanyahu kept both relationships - Poroshenko and Putin - close. Putin played all religions well besides the Russian Orthodox, also the renovation of Synagogues and Grand Mosque in Moscow and a synagogue in Sochi.

    Yad Vashem and Holocaust: Putin's Private Party

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 08:17:38 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    For starters, Zelensky is a person in the middle of centrifugal forces. He "leads" a divided nation. The oligarchs are split in pro-West and pro-Russian with all sides allied with Israel. Israel does not stand by the US on policy vis-a-vis Ukraine. Similarly Turkey has strong historic ties to Crimea and is supplying attack drones.

    The war hawks in Zelensky's cabinet are the ministers of Defense Oleksii Reznikov and Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba. Zelensky is not safe in his own Capitol Kyiv and regularly threatened by the fascists from western region of Lviv.

    How wonderful not being a member and receiving the most advanced arms, training by NATO specialists and commando training by the global elites.

    In addition from the IMF, European Union, United States and extra from Poland, Ukraine receives massive economic support and financial relief.

    As actor Zelensky is comfortable on stage, never has in his career did he receive a standing ovation before uttering a word.

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 11:19:40 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Just to be prepared for any and all events ...

    Zelensky expands war cabinet of National Defense Council | July 14, 2021 |

    Seven more people entered the war cabinet of the National Security and Defense Council

    A new minister of defense was installed early November ... the talks were underway between Ukraine and Gazprom for an extended long-term contract ... nothing came of it. Why? Blaming Russia ...

    Angry U.S.-Russia Exchange at U.N. Punctuates Deepening Ukraine Rift | NY Times |

    With vitriolic accusations that echoed the Cold War era, the United States and Russia sparred in a bitter debate over the Ukraine crisis in a Security Council meeting watched by the world.

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 11:21:00 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    It looks like the Russian Security Council meeting today ended up supporting the recognition of LPR and DPR if Ukraine doesn't stand down immediately.

    The West will respond with sanctions, but Russia can resist them (said Medvedev). That will kinda clear the situation obviously for all parties, if it happens.

    If West implements sanctions, then it can't use them to "protect" Ukraine anymore. Ukraine will be much less likely to continue "join operations" in the Donbass area and peace can be restored.

    With "Ukraine crisis" solved and the Olympics out of the way, the world can then move on to solve the European security arrangements, because Russia sure won't let that go away until it is solved one way or the other.

    Ukraine says they're not attacking anyone or shelling anything, but OSCE monitors observed an explosion every minute of Saturday and Russians say they captured one Ukrainian soldier on the Russian side of the border trespassing from Luhansk (with at least 5 others in 2 IFVs).

    by pelgus on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 03:58:02 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    OK so Putin has launched a police operation to protect Russian speakers (do they make them do a language test before deciding to protect them?)

    Are they going to cross the ceasefire line to liberate the entire Donbass, or not?

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 08:02:10 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Don't be ridiculous ... Kyiv passed laws to discriminate Russian speaking citizens, censorship in the media, treating them as foreigners and traitors ... read  up a bit about collaborations with Nazi Germany, Galicia, extermination of Jews ... now their heroes Bandera, and so forth. Revisionism of history, similar to close ally Poland. The Dutch voted against Ukraine becoming an association member of the EU in a referendum.

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 11:00:37 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Frankly any post which brings in WWII collaboration is not worthy of a response.

    Or perhaps we can blame Putin for the millions of deaths during the forced collectivisation of the 1930s?

    It's complicated to discuss anything when three unrelated issues are conflated in a single post. The Dutch voted against Ukraine because of a plane shot down by a Russian missile.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 11:26:47 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    The Dutch voted against Ukraine because of a plane shot down by a Russian missile.

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 12:36:17 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    My bad. Obviously you know Dutch society better than I do. I had the impression that Dutch electors were, in the majority, favourable to the treaty, but that turnout was depressed because of the plane crash (rather nonsensically, because obviously the Ukraine authorities had nothing to do with it, but that's public opinion)

    You seem to be saying that the referendum was lost because of Dutch concerns about antisemitism in the Ukraine. I'll take your word for it.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 02:00:30 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    WWII collaboration

    It is when today these persons are seen as heroes and monuments erected with annual commemoration. Militants follow Nazi doctrine of racism and anti-semitisme. Ban these idiots and the world will be a better place. US Capital insurrection, Massacre on Utøya, New Zealand Mosque Shooting, etc.

    Leave everyone their heroes, Confederacy, battle heroes and sowing hatred. I will renounce them  ☮️

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 12:53:48 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Well, here you go again conflating everything. It's true that people in the USA and in the Ukraine are allowed to celebrate Nazism, and that'a a bad thing (but probably not a motive for military intervention). But the Danish shooter at Utoya and the Australian shooter in Christchurch were self-educated fascists, and I'm not sure how that can be banned.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 01:50:36 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Sorry, Norwegian. Apologies to Danish fascists.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 02:02:32 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Honestly, lots of countries have passed laws about which languages are used... Generally a really bad idea, and far too common, including among EU nations. If every such case justified military intervention, it's hard to think of a European country that wouldn't be at war now.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 11:30:24 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    So, if you think that Putin sent in the army to protect persecuted ethnic Russians, this means that you believe that they are not going to stop at the ceasefire line?

    Or at least, that you hope they won't.

    Because they can't protect any persecuted people if they only occupy the territories already controlled by their proxies.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 01:53:21 PM EST
    [ Parent ]

    Just words! Policy of aggravating the Russian Bear ... looking for revenge from earlier defeats? Libya, Syria, Mali, South Ossetia, Crimea, and so on ...

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 08:42:52 AM EST
    "The American people are united" might be a bit of an overstatement. The GOP is opposed to anything Biden does. The Trump enthusiasts are Russia enthusiasts. The anti-war left is opposed to military solutions.

    Sending US ground troops would get very little popular support.

    What would get at least initial support in the US is the idea of the USAF bombing stuff. That's based on the idea that it would carry minimal risk, as has been the situation since WW2. We tacitly assume we are able to bomb anywhere in the world at will.

    Under this model, we would obtain air superiority due to our high-tech F-22 fighters. A minor problem might be that the Russians have the SU-35, which is, at least on paper, comparable. And both sides have guided missiles. The USAF has not been in a full-blown air war for quite some time, so nobody really knows how it would work out.

    If the US cannot gain air superiority, exactly what it might do from a military combat viewpoint is not so clear.

    by asdf on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 04:06:39 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    NO-FLY ZONE bomb intervention
    UNSC | Security Council Approves 'No-Fly Zone' over Libya, Authorizing 'All Necessary Measures' to Protect Civilians, by Vote of 10 in Favour with 5 Abstentions, Mar 2011
    In that connection, the Council specified that the flight ban would not apply to flights that had as their sole purpose humanitarian aid, the evacuation of foreign nationals, enforcing the ban or other purposes "deemed necessary for the benefit of the Libyan people".
    NATO | Operation UNIFIED PROTECTOR, Mar 2011
    NATO fighter planes stand ready to intercept any aircraft which violates the No-Fly Zone, and engage it if it presents a threat. In enforcing the No-Fly Zone, force will only be used as a last resort. As is standard in military operations, NATO's fighters have the right to self-defence against attacks from the air or the ground.
    Al Jazeera | NATO announces end of Libya mission, Nov 2011
    Alliance warplanes will cease operations on Monday after flying more than 26,000 sorties, and bombing almost 6,000 targets, in a seven-month operation that helped bring about the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, the former Libyan leader [...] with no casualties on their side and few civilian deaths, but cash-strapped governments have been eager to bring their planes home and focus on the bigger war in Afghanistan.
    HRW | Unacknowledged Deaths Civilian Casualties in NATO's Air Campaign in Libya, May 2012
    NATO air strikes killed at least 72 civilians, one-third of them children under age 18.[...] Strikes that resulted in no civilian fatalities--though civilians were wounded or property destroyed--were not included.  Altogether, NATO conducted roughly 9,700 strike sorties and dropped over 7,700 precision-guided bombs during the seven-month campaign.
    Don't intervene in Libya again, Mar 2016
    The result of the bombing campaign wasn't a democratic, stable Libya. Instead, an estimated 30,000 people died and many thousands were displaced. The country is now split between a group led by a former Qaddafi loyalist who controls territory in the east and a coalition of Islamist militias that control the capital, Tripoli, and much of the rest of the country. It is difficult to imagine how Libya could possibly be in worse shape today had NATO chosen bargaining over bombs to deal with Qaddafi--and he did try to bargain.
    NATO's "Conspiracy" against the Libyan Revolution, Aug 2011
    after 78 days in Kosovo, NATO allies had committed 1,100 aircraft and flown 38,004 sorties. By contrast, in Libya NATO had sent just 250 aircraft and flown 11,107 sorties. ... The total number of sorties in 43 days of Desert Storm reached 109,876--an average of 2,555 per day. After the devastation brought about by that "storm" and further bombing campaigns during the 12 embargo years between 1991 and 2003, 41,850 sorties were flown during the first 4 weeks alone of so-called Operation Iraqi Freedom. Of these, 15,825 were strike sorties, averaging 565 per day.
    RAND Corp. | Airpower in the Libyan Civil War, 2015. 466 pp
    • The Libyan Experience
    • The U.S. Experience
    • The British Experience
    • The Italian Experience
    • The Canadian Experience
    • The Belgian, Danish, Dutch, and Norwegian Experiences
    • The Swedish Experience
    • The Arab States' (Qatar, UAE, Jordan) Experiences

    braced by "tailor made" PARTITION!
    Foreign Policy | The Biden Doctrine, Oct 2012
    Biden hadn't wanted a specific portfolio of his own, but the president gave him one. At an NSC meeting in June, 2009, he turned to Biden and said, "Joe, you do Iraq." (Biden had been deeply involved in Iraq as a senator, and had once proposed a partition plan for the country from which he later backed away.) Biden has made seven trips to Iraq since Obama's directive. It is a job tailor-made for a career politician who loves plotting strategy, brokering compromise, talking about the wife and kids, squeezing a shoulder, an arm, a knee, or any other body part that hoves into view. Biden still spends a quarter or so of his time trying to prod Iraq's endlessly bickering Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish leaders into working with each other rather than trying to kill each other. Exactly how successful he's been is a matter of dispute. A recent report by Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies concludes that as tensions rise among competing ethnic blocs, "a political crisis seems likely if not inevitable." Cordesman also notes that the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2011 has both sharply reduced American influence and increased sometimes lethal political jockeying. On the other hand, as Blinken points out, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his chief rivals are still competing through politics, not gunfire.
    CATO | Time to Partition the `Fake' Country of Libya, May 2020
    by Cat on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 09:15:12 PM EST
    [ Parent ]

    Shameful ... a deck of cards of autocrats, not a line-up of progressive Democrats. A mix of the Bucharest Nine? Even not unanimous, missing Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria. 😖

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 08:45:15 AM EST
    French President Macron extends a hand to both parties heading for a war on European soil.

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 08:46:14 AM EST

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 08:47:06 AM EST
    [ Parent ]

    Ukraine hit hard by risk of war as investors head for the exit ...

    The Threat of a Russian Invasion Is Crushing Ukraine's Economy and Culture | TIME |

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 08:48:44 AM EST

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 08:49:59 AM EST
    Foreign Affairs Council: Remarks by High Representative Josep Borrell upon arrival | one hour ago |

    Another important thing - although not a hot topic but an important one- is the meeting with the Gulf [Cooperation Council]. We are going to have [it] here. I will co-chair with the Saudi Foreign Minister [Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud] a meeting with the countries of the Gulf. The Gulf requires more and more attention, not just because now we want to have more gas from the Gulf, but it is a much more important region, and we have to pay more attention to it. 

    😂 How sad ... but at least transparant. Pushed by Joe Biden to prepare for a New Global Order ... preview of the past. 😎

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 09:59:23 AM EST
    ... working for a diplomatic solution. 🤥

    Does mrs. Von Der Leyen have a Plan B for end of this year when the party of Trump has swept US Congress to a blocking majority. MEGA ... stupidity reigns in Brussels, both HQ's.

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 01:42:19 PM EST
    she keeps using that word, but I don't think it means what she thinks it means.

    Frankly, I take offense at how she says EU and US are closer than ever like it's a good thing. I think the majority of Europeans don't admire US the way the Brussels inner circles do.

    by pelgus on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 02:10:58 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    I don't think Gallup ever repeated this survey from 2013, but here are the country seen as biggest threath to world peace around the world in 2013:

    I guess the US media campaign of the day was focused on Iran.

    by fjallstrom on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 04:13:08 PM EST
    [ Parent ]

    Footage of the final phase of the Russian-Belarusian exercise "Allied Resolve-2022" at the Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground in the Republic of Belarus https:/s.mil.ru/34OgCq5

    #Ministry of Defense #RussianArmy #RussiaBelarus #Su30SM #AlliedResolve2022

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 11:54:41 PM EST
    This is a confrontation between two, late-stage empires, and before it's done, they may both collapse.  In the meantime there will be lots of tackle-swinging, and the damage potential has no meaningful limit.
    by rifek on Wed Feb 23rd, 2022 at 05:36:31 PM EST
    Plenty of damage will be done from decisions already made. Most of it will be in Europe.

    Why Europe cannot manage to take on this whole thing is a mystery. Should have kicked the US out a long time ago and then worked out a commercial and defense agreement with Russia.

    by asdf on Wed Feb 23rd, 2022 at 06:37:43 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    by Cat on Fri Feb 25th, 2022 at 11:40:47 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    MSN | Quick, Send Ukraine More Guns!, 25 Feb 2022 anti-propagada+
    President Biden should send more arms--a lot more arms--to Ukraine. In the months leading up to Russia's invasion, the U.S. alone sent $650 [?!] million worth of anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles, as well as radar, communications gear, and other military supplies. It is time to redouble that effort, quickly.

    The Russian offensive has not gone as smoothly or as quickly as Vladimir Putin may have imagined, perhaps in part because his army hasn't mounted an OPERATION so large or complex for many decades, but also because the Ukrainians are skillfully fighting back.

    Reports and videos from the battlefields around Karkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, and the main airport outside Kyiv, show Russian tanks and other vehicles AT A STANDSTILL or destroyed. Russian troops have entered Kyiv, but Ukrainian soldiers are mounting defenses and littering the streets with barricades. Civilians [?!] are lining up outside government buildings to be handed rifles or machine guns to go fight.

    But more resistance will require more weapons.
    They could ship PLANELOADS of these weapons to Poland, where caravans of trucks could transport them right up to (or perhaps a little bit past) the Ukrainian border, where Ukrainian commanders or organizers could go pick them up. The Poles, who detest Russia, would cooperate.

    This would not be a sentimental gesture, like something out of Casablanca* or the noble but doomed crusade to aid the anti-fascists in the Spanish Civil War*. It would be a strategic, even necessary act.

    * the film, not the place
    ** not that Lincoln Brigade, the other one
    by Cat on Sat Feb 26th, 2022 at 12:01:57 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    The Truth
    Posted by supersoling | Nov 22, 2006 |

    A great blogger I enjoyed to communicate with when the Pond was a community. Memories ...

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 03:07:15 AM EST
    Have you read "The dawn of humanity", Oui?
    It completely blew my mind with respect to North American social and political organisation in pre-colonial times.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
    by eurogreen on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 08:30:01 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    by Oui (Oui) on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 10:18:20 AM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Yes sorry. Absolutely. I'm going to do a diary on it, soon. So much to say. Beautifully written too, very playful...

    We have a long way to go as a species before we can get back to peaceful anarchy.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 11:28:53 AM EST
    get back to peaceful anarchy
    by Cat on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 06:46:45 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    The thread is coming. Prepare yourself, madam.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
    by eurogreen on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 09:39:25 PM EST
    [ Parent ]

    Weeks ago members UK and US pulled out ahead of time ... disgusting.

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 12:45:28 PM EST
    Disgusting? That depends on whether they shared their intel with the other members.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
    by eurogreen on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 02:30:15 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    by Oui (Oui) on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 05:14:06 PM EST
    by Oui (Oui) on Tue Mar 1st, 2022 at 05:15:13 PM EST

    Corona Warfare: the highly secretive 77th Brigade was "helping to quash rumours from misinformation, but also counter disinformation"

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Wed Mar 2nd, 2022 at 09:38:32 PM EST
    In the words of Nobel Laureate Harold Pinter from 2005

    The invasion of Iraq was a bandit act, an act of blatant state terrorism, demonstrating absolute contempt for the concept of international law," Pinter said in a pre-recorded lecture broadcast by the Swedish Academy on December 8th.
    The Academy, which awards the Nobel Literature Prize, aired the interview, recorded earlier in London, because Pinter was too sick to travel to Sweden for the lecture or pick up the award in person at the ceremony.

    The United States supported and in many cases engendered every right wing military dictatorship in the world after the end of the Second World War. I refer to Indonesia, Greece, Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay, Haiti, Turkey, the Philippines, Guatemala, El Salvador, and, of course, Chile. The horror the United States inflicted upon Chile in 1973 can never be purged and can never be forgiven.

    Hundreds of thousands of deaths took place throughout these countries. Did they take place? And are they in all cases attributable to US foreign policy? The answer is yes they did take place and they are attributable to American foreign policy. But you wouldn't know it.

    It never happened. Nothing ever happened. Even while it was happening it wasn't happening. It didn't matter. It was of no interest. The crimes of the United States have been systematic, constant, vicious, remorseless, but very few people have actually talked about them. You have to hand it to America. It has exercised a quite clinical manipulation of power worldwide while masquerading as a force for universal good. It's a brilliant, even witty, highly successful act of hypnosis.

    Add Honduras, Libya and Syria under the Obama administration ... the "scourge" of Syrian refugees flooding into Europe. A drip, drip failure of human rights.

    A final act?

    United States of America Declared a Bandit State | Jan. 4th, 2020 |

    Europe and nations across the globe should express their disgust with the acts of banditry and bullying of the President . There should be no room for acts of fascism humanity had hoped to have left behind the genocides of the 20th century that tore up society. The lone action of the world's most powerful nation in terms of the economy and military, should be a shining example, not the acts crossing International Law and the Geneva Conventions. Friends of America or no friends of human kind by keeping silent or going through the motions of criticism without sanctioning barbaric acts.

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Fri Mar 4th, 2022 at 04:08:11 PM EST
    It would be distasteful to put words into a dead man's mouth...

    The invasion of Iraq was a bandit act, an act of blatant state terrorism, demonstrating absolute contempt for the concept of international law

    but there is no doubt for me that the great man would have condemned the brutal invasion of Ukraine by the fascist Putin.

    It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

    by eurogreen on Tue Mar 8th, 2022 at 02:27:42 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    This is I recall the attitude from the leader of the Russian Federation. His daughter lived in a suburb near Leiden in The Netherlands. In the same neighborhood my barber bought his new home. So now and then, Putin visited and went shopping in the supermarket. Hardly noticed, some bodyguards always near.

    Russia to join Partnership Status of Forces agreement | Apr. 28, 2005 |

    NATO-Russia cooperation took a step forward with the signing by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on 21 April of an agreement that will facilitate the movement of NATO troops in Russia and of Russian troops on Alliance territory.

    Minister Sergey Lavrov signed the Partnership for Peace Status of Forces (SOFA) agreement at the beginning of an informal meeting of Foreign Ministers from the NATO-Russia Council in Vilnius, 21 April.

    The SOFA provides a legal framework for movements to and from Allied countries, partner countries and Russia of military personnel and support staff.

    Facilitating cooperation

    NATO Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, at a press conference:

    "The SOFA will allow us to organise better a rich menu of cooperative activities. It will save us time by providing a legal basis for movement of people and equipment agreed in advance, and it will allow us to act together in new areas, such as strategic airlift."

    The agreement will facilitate organising both joint trainings and exercises as well as real-world cooperation, such as the transport of NATO troops to Afghanistan.
    The SOFA regulates legal status related to documentation, juridical questions, taxation, customs, etc. It is based on NATO's 1951 Status of Forces agreement, with appropriate amendments due to the fact that Russia is not a member of NATO.

    It is not a "basing agreement", nor does it automatically allow every kind of transport - the sovereignty of parties to the SOFA will not be affected. All of its provisions are applied reciprocally - whatever status of NATO troops enjoy while in Russia, Russian troops enjoy while on NATO territory.

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Fri Mar 4th, 2022 at 05:47:46 PM EST
    Senator John McCain on Ukraine | C-Span |

      Senator John McCain (R-AZ) talked about political unrest in Ukraine and his recent visit to the country. Protests in that country began on November 21, 2013, in response to the Ukrainian government's refusal to sign a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union. Senator McCain said that the U.S. should take a stronger position in support for Ukrainian citizens' quest for freedom and that the U.S. should stand up against Russia. After his speech, he answered questions from moderator Damon Wilson and members of the audience.

    Senator John McCain on Ukraine Dec. 19, 2013  Atlantic Council

    The key to President Putin's geopolitical ambitions is Ukraine. It is more populous than all of the other Eastern Partnership countries combined. It shares the same cultural, religious, and historical heritage as Russia. And President Putin still does not accept that Ukraine is an independent country. He has said as much publicly. For all of these reasons, the Russian-led Customs Union cannot be viable without Ukraine. Indeed, the idea of a modern, democratic Ukraine that is part of Europe is President Putin's worst nightmare--because eventually, Russian citizens would look at that flourishing Ukraine and ask, "Why not us?" This is why President Putin will stop at nothing to thwart Ukraine's aspiration to become part of Europe.

    That's the bad news. But we also need to recognize the good news: Regardless of the short-term pain that President Putin can inflict on Russia's neighbors, history is not on his side. The Eastern Partnership countries want the benefits of European integration--a reality that was demonstrated clearly last month, when Georgia and Moldova bucked Russian pressure and signed their own Association Agreements.

    There are also reasons for hope in Ukraine. No matter how much money President Putin commits, he cannot change the fact that a majority of Ukrainians--not just in the west, but in the south and east as well--see their future in Europe. Poll after poll confirms this, as does any time spent with young Ukrainians, who have no memory of the Soviet Union, and who want everything Europe has to offer. For this reason, no Ukrainian president--not this one or any other--will ever be able to take Ukraine off the path to Europe. Doing so would be political suicide. And for Russia to insist on it would only engender the animosity of millions of Ukrainians.

    The fact is, Russia is not ten feet tall, and it cannot bail out Ukraine forever. Russia's economy is growing sluggishly, plagued by corruption and capital flight and dependent on hydrocarbons. Under these circumstances, I imagine many Russians are not too happy to see $15 billion of their national resources heading to a foreign country in furtherance of President Putin's selfish ideological ambitions.

    Russia, EU and ECU: co-existence or rivalry? | Open Democracy - Sept. 2012 |

    He clearly used parts in a different context and era. McCain in his presentation used the memory of a great Ukrainian poet ...

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Sat Mar 5th, 2022 at 08:56:54 PM EST
    Dwight David Eisenhower, the 34nd U.S. president, speaking about Taras Shevchenko | Washington DC, June 27, 1964 |

    "On September 13, 1960, when I signed into law a measure to authorize the erection of this statue, it was my expectation that you would arrange a ceremony of dedication commensurate with the greatness of Taras Shevchenko. That day is here and you have come by the thousands from all over the United States; you have come from Canada, from Latin America and Europe, and from as far away as Australia, to honor the memory of a poet who expressed so eloquently man's undying determination to fight for freedom and his unquenchable faith in ultimate victory."

    The Taras Shevchenko Memorial is a bronze statue and stone relief-adorned wall located on the 2200 block of P Street NW in the Dupont Circle neighborhood of Washington, D.C., United States. It is one of many monuments in Washington, D.C. which honor foreign heroes who symbolize freedom in their native countries. The memorial honors Taras Shevchenko (1814 - 1861), a Ukrainian poet and artist who influenced the development of modern Ukrainian literature.

      Taras Shevchenko was born in a village near Kyiv, Ukraine (then part of the Russian Empire), to a serf belonging to a wealthy aristocrat. His early years were marked by a series of misfortunes that left him orphaned at the age of 11. Living like a homeless urchin for the next three years, it was during this period that Taras' artistic impulses first surfaced. At the age of 14, Taras was selected to serve as a page in the landowner's household precisely because of his potential as an artist. First in Vilno (today's Vilnius, Lithuania) and then in St. Petersburg (Russia), Shevchenko was catapulted from a rural setting outside of Kyiv into an urban world filled with cultural delights and intellectual gratification. It was the age of the Industrial Revolution and Romanticism, and Europe was being transformed by social and political ferment.

    The committee to build the memorial included former U.S. President Harry S. Truman as the honorary head. Opposition to the memorial's installation was led by The Washington Post. It was dedicated in 1964, the 150th anniversary of Shevchenko's birth. Dignitaries at the dedication ceremony included prominent Ukrainian Americans, former U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower, members of the U.S. Congress, and Hollywood actors.


    17th and 18th-century Austrian and Russian Empire Divided

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Sat Mar 5th, 2022 at 08:59:18 PM EST
    [ Parent ]

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Sat Mar 5th, 2022 at 09:00:17 PM EST
    [ Parent ]
    Taras Shevchenko was put to death in 1861, at a historical period of the great American Civil War, Indian Wars, decades ahead of the Wars with Mexico, Philippines, and so forth. The US was about to launch an educational program for indigenous people of the America's which was welcomed and duplicated in Canadian school systems.

    The African Americans Many Rivers to Cross Episode 2: The Age of Slavery (1800 -1860)

    On this day in 1781, a jury in Great Barrington found in favor of "Mum Bett," a black woman who had been a slave in the home of Colonel John Ashley for at least 30 years. Listening to her master's friends discuss the newly ratified Massachusetts Constitution, she concluded that if all people were born free and equal, so was she. She found a young lawyer to represent her, and he persuaded a Berkshire County jury to declare her free.

    Two years later, in a case involving Quok Walker, a slave in Worcester County, the Chief Justice of the state's highest court declared that "slavery is inconsistent with our own conduct and Constitution." Massachusetts had been the first colony to legalize slavery; now the legal system helped to end the institution in the state.

    Before the Emancipation Proclamation freed the slaves, before Rosa Parks or Harriet Tubman, there was Mum Bett ...

    Sheffield statue to honor Mum Bett, 1st Mass. slave to sue for freedom | CommonWealth - Nov. 12, 2021 |

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Sat Mar 5th, 2022 at 09:01:17 PM EST
    [ Parent ]

      "The Appeals Chamber had unanimously decided to reverse the acquittals (...) we unanimously find misters (Hassan Habib) Merhi and (Hussein Hassan) Oneissi guilty," presiding Judge, Ivana Hrdlickova, said in a summary of the judgement read out in court.

      The prosecution had appealed against the acquittal of the two men, saying there had been fundamental errors in the judgment.

      Appeals judges said that the lower trial chamber wrongly assessed the circumstantial evidence in the case, which was based almost entirely on mobile phone records, when they acquitted Merhi and Oneissi.

    Digital Evidence and War Crimes Prosecutions: The Impact of Digital Technologies on International Criminal Investigations and Trials | Forham Intl Law Journal |

    The United States NSA and Israeli intelligence Mossad were well versed in tampering with telecom records in Lebanon in 2005. Espionage is the game from multiple foreign powers in Lebanon until its total destruction.

    Israel's Verint and the Dutch 26,435 wire taps in a year

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Fri Mar 11th, 2022 at 06:46:53 PM EST
    The Roots of Russian Conduct and Occasional Essays on Contemporary Russian Issues

    In 1939, Winston Churchill uttered the now-famous adage, "Russia is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma." He was not alone in being bewildered by Russia's conduct. For centuries, Russia has been regarded as a mysterious land. In 1839, the French aristocrat and writer the Marquis de Custine traveled to Russia and wrote a popular "exposé" on the backwardness of Russian society and the appalling conduct of its aristocracy at the time of Emperor Nicholas I. Even Russians have struggled to define themselves and their country. The words of the 19th century Russian poet and statesman Fyodor Tyutchev perhaps best described this conundrum in a short poem, the essence of which is that Russia cannot be grasped by the mind; it can only be appreciated by faith.

    Churchill's words expressing his puzzlement about Russia have been repeated endlessly by statesmen, politicians, scholars, and journalists to explain and justify their frustration with Russia and its behavior in both the domestic and international arenas. But how true is Churchill's remark? Does Russia, indeed, operate in mysterious ways that confuse and confound us in the West? Or can our failure to understand Russia be also attributed to our own shortcomings, ignorance, and propensity for mirror-imaging?

    Any student in a basic political science course learns that countries pursue international policy objectives based largely on their national interests. Although governments change and strategies come and go, national interests remain fundamentally the same. This was just as true for Great Britain under Churchill as it was for the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin. The same can be said today for the United States and Russia.

    The pursuit of national interests is the major motivating force of any country's foreign policy. As Hans Morgenthau, a leading political scientist of the 20th century, describes it, "The meaning of national interest is survival--the protection of physical, political and cultural identity against encroachments by other nation-states." These basic interests are fundamental even as specific interests and goals vary from country to country.

    Russia under Vladimir Putin, like any other country, has clearly defined national interests and identifiable factors that influence the pursuit of those interests. The number one priority for Putin and his regime is survival and retention of power--a particularly vital priority for any authoritarian regimes. The survival of the Russian state and protecting it from domestic and foreign threats also rank among the highest priorities. Another critically important priority is the preservation and expansion of Russia's influence in the international arena. This is manifested in Russia's drive to regain status as a world power and maintain influence over its neighbors after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Lower on the scale of priorities, but still of great importance, are the preservation and expansion of Russia's economy and its economic interests and the maintenance of the domestic social order.

    My earlier diary ...

    Winston Churchill Explains Enigma Russia | Jan 19, 2022 |

    'Sapere aude'

    by Oui (Oui) on Mon Mar 14th, 2022 at 06:11:04 PM EST

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Sun Mar 20th, 2022 at 05:24:13 PM EST

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Sun Mar 20th, 2022 at 05:25:28 PM EST

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Sun Mar 20th, 2022 at 05:27:10 PM EST

    'Sapere aude'
    by Oui (Oui) on Sun Mar 20th, 2022 at 05:28:07 PM EST

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