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How to Counter Putin and Reduce Climate Change or Reversing the Energy Weapon

by gmoke Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 03:30:17 AM EST

This is a view from USAmerica where I see little discussion of the energy aspects of the Ukraine/Russia situation:

The impending (2/20/22) invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin's Russia is, at least in part, an energy war.  Certainly, he is using the methane Russia sells to the EU and neighboring countries as a weapon.  Russia supplies a third to a half of the gas the EU burns and this is a strategic and economic fact that has to be taken into consideration by all sides.  Thus, reducing Russian energy dependence (and increasing energy independence)  would reduce Putin's leverage and could also reduce greenhouse gases, increase energy efficiency, save money on the costs of fuel while benefitting local, national economies as well.  If done wisely.

If the worst case scenario plays out and EU and neighboring countries lose up to half their gas supply, we should remember that, for example, USAmerica produced about 92.9 quadrillion btu's in 2020 (and has been bouncing between 90-100 quads since the year 2000) but about two thirds of that energy, about 62.3 quads, is "rejected energy," does no useful work, is lost in transmission, distribution, friction, and systems inefficiencies.  That's quite a lot of slack, even with Carnot efficiencies.
Source:  https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/energy/us/Energy_US_2020.png


There is also at least one example of a country which lost half of its energy supply almost  overnight, a few decades ago, Cuba after the fall of the Soviet Empire.  Their situation was made worse because they also lost 85% of their foreign trade economy and about one third of their GDP in one year, all at the same time.  The people of Cuba had to endure near starvation conditions before transforming their energy situation with a robust local and urban agriculture movement and much more bicycle and public transport.  Despite the differences in energy use, supply, and circumstances, there are still some lessons we can learn from what they did then and continue to do now.

How Cuba Survived Peak Oil
2007 diary:  http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/2/11/204215/961

Film:   https:/www.communitysolution.org/mediaandeducation/films/powerofcommunity

The EU and neighboring countries could go further.  In the face of another imminent war, the constant threat of oil-funded terrorism, and increasingly expensive natural disasters and emergencies, a solar insurgency (http://solarray.blogspot.com/2007/11/solar-insurgency.html) could upgrade energy and resource systems to reduce waste and improve efficiency while increasing resiliency and preparedness for the next heatwave, flood, fire, hurricane....  A Civilian Conservation Corps doing deep energy retrofits and training people for two of the fastest growing jobs these days, wind technician and solar installer could help us live up to our climate commitments as well as eliminate  the cost of fuel (http://solarray.blogspot.com/2019/07/how-do-you-pay-for-green-new-deal-cost.html).  

Cutting Putin off at the wallet is powerful and, incidentally, I wouldn't be surprised to find out he is playing the oil and gas spot and futures markets, making $$$$ hand over fist.

Poll
More reversing weapons?
. yes 0%
. no 0%
. not yes 0%
. not no 0%
. neither yes nor no 0%
. both yes and no 0%
. don't understand the question? 0%

Votes: 0
Results | Other Polls
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Have always kept Jerome's diary as a reference ...

Russian-Ukrainian gas deal - what's behind it? | Jan. 4, 2006 |

Which leads to us to the big question: why did Putin actively participate in this "crisis" this time, when earlier episodes were resolved far from the eyes of the West? It has spectacularly backfired: the only apparent result today is to make Russia look foolish (because they backed down on their threat so quickly) and irresponsible (because they used the gas weapon for what appears to be bullying of a smaller country escaping its clutches - Note to my Russian readers: appears is the operative word here).

The strong economic ties is part of the agreements made with Gorbachev in 1990 in a package deal with reunification East- and West Germany. The Germans have kept their part of the deal and always had (some) political leverage on Russia. Russia needs to sell its fossil fuels more than the EU depends on Russian gas.

The Dutch has nearly depleted gas fields in Groningen but participated in logistics and transport of Gazprom gas into Europe - see contracts with Dutch government and the Gasunie.

After the above mentioned mistake by Putin, Russia and Gazprom have kept their part of gas delivery and contracts. Politics in EU-27 countries caused in part the gas price explosion. Mostly it is caused by the economic recovery after the pandemic and

The energy crunch - What causes the rise in energy prices? | Journalism for the Energy Transition |

Blaming Putin and Russia is a false narrative and used in the war propaganda.

Poland has ended gas contracts with Gazprom, unfortunately without delivery from new sources.

Poland Surges Towards Energy Sovereignty | Dec. 21, 2021 |

    [Update on shutting down nuclear power plants in France boosting energy prices]

    Poland shuts downs Yamal-Europe Pipeline as it switches to alternate suppliers LNG from Qatar, Norway and USA. Gas spot price surges to new record.

The storage facilities of. Gazprom were below average for the winter season, also due to very high demand from Asia and China which recovered from the pandemic months sooner.

Construction completed of Baltic Pipe offshore gas pipeline | Offshore - Dec. 2, 2021 |

    ... so that from Oct. 1, 2022, we can start commercial gas transmission from the Norwegian shelf to Poland.

Below the radar ... not recognized in war rhetoric by US-UK-New Europe:

Ukraine asks Gazprom to extend gas transit deal for 15 years | BNE - Nov. 24, 2021 |

Ukraine has asked Russia's gas behemoth Gazprom to extend the current gas transit deal that expires in 2024 for another 15 years and offered to cut transit fees in half.
Ukraine's Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal said in an interview with Radio Svoboda on November 21 that Ukraine wants to extend the transit contract with Gazprom and is currently negotiating with its European partners.

Earlier post ...

All Quiet on the Western Front

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 01:29:26 PM EST
EU Borrell on Green Policy and Climate Change

Foreign Affairs Council: Remarks by High Representative Josep Borrell upon arrival | one hour ago |

Another important thing - although not a hot topic but an important one- is the meeting with the Gulf [Cooperation Council]. We are going to have [it] here. I will co-chair with the Saudi Foreign Minister [Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud] a meeting with the countries of the Gulf. The Gulf requires more and more attention, not just because now we want to have more gas from the Gulf, but it is a much more important region, and we have to pay more attention to it. 

😂 How sad ... but at least transparant. Pushed by Joe Biden to prepare for a New Global Order ... preview of the past. 😎

European Commission declares nuclear and gas to be green | DW News |

Ukraine is working to become an energy hub, producing its own gas, developing storage and importing from both the European Union and Russia, Ukraine's energy minister said in Brussels. [May 2013]

Ukraine can become Europe's "hydrogen hub" | Jan. 19, 2022 |

Extending the European Hydrogen Backbone - Gas for Climate

Furthermore special metals and commodities ...

Metals sector warily monitors Ukraine tensions | Argus Media |

Ukraine to sell Europe's largest titanium and zirconium miner UMCC

Ukraine: Global Fracking Resources - 2015

Ukraine has an estimated 127.9 trillion cubic feet of unproved technically recoverable shale gas resources, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The most promising shale reserves appear to be in the Carpathian Foreland Basin (also called the Lviv-Volyn Basin), which extends across Western Ukraine from Poland into Romania, and the Dnieper-Donets Basin in the East (which borders Russia).



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 02:38:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NEW! uses for old Ukraine. That's hilarious. What kind of fossil/biomass/splitting licensed "modules" will EU plant there that cannot be planted in EU27 for a competitive RO1?
EU aims to make Africa a world champion in hydrogen exports, 15 Feb 2022
"A prosperous Europe without implementing the Sustainable Development Goals in Africa is impossible," said Timmermans, speaking as part of the EU-African Union summit. "We are sister continents and our future is interlinked," he added.

Climate campaigners are generally positive about Africa's potential as a hydrogen exporting region. "A shift away from fossil fuels can put EU-Africa relations on a new footing," according to Eleonora Moro, a hydrogen specialist at the climate think tank E3G.
[...]
"Because Africa can and must do more than export raw materials," he said, adding that the economy could open up "sectors with higher added value, such as the production of green steel or green fertiliser".

An African focus on the production of green hydrogen would also benefit Europe. According to Timmermans, "With cheap electricity from renewable energy sources, green hydrogen can be produced at competitive prices."

Africa-EU - international trade in goods statistics
by Cat on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 06:44:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Blaming Putin and Russia is a false narrative and used in the war propaganda.

  1. RU has nothing, zero, zip, to do with either commercial or residential NG demand in USA. After all, despite "OPEC+" imports EIA declared US a net exporter of fossil fuel over 15 years ago, when domestic shale oil and fracking production and refining  exceeded contiguous 48 demand (Q).

  2. RU-CN NG and fin networks obviate their purported FX/Q/V dependence on incumbent commercial producers and puts to lie EU-members' "just transition" from convenient COAL/OIL consumption, dependence on "green" fossil fuel extraction from "third countries", and pledges to reform said upstream power polluters.

  3. Ukraine's clientele, like those of UK and its erstwhile, yield-chasing competitors, has nothing constructive to contribute to global "climate action" innovation, including but not limited to replacing the MIC with so-called sustainable, GHG-neutral, renewable industries/eom
by Cat on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 06:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think a problem in replacing gas, is its use as top load. More intermittent would be helpful where it saves on top load, but not really solve the problem.

I think the main problem here is that building more storage goes against the prevailing ideas how energy markets should work. Indeed, EU would have less gas problems if gas was bought from Russia on set prices - like Russia has wanted - instead of spot markets that EU is insisting on.

So yes, more solar and more wind, but that will mainly outcompete coal and nuclear. So also more grid strenghtening and storage.

by fjallstrom on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 01:57:24 PM EST
because the goal actually is DEMAND for cheap fuel exploration, production, and supply from "developed" nation state "producers".

NG is not a problem. NG satisfies that basic investment hurdle, despite 1. some "stakeholders" agitating "developed" governments decided coal and nuke energy is morally repugnant; 2. many "shareholders" are unwilling and unable to abandon voluntarily guaranteed income produced by existing P&E.

by Cat on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 07:01:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok, without taking any issue with there being no proof whatsoever about Russia planning to invade Ukraine or using energy as a weapon, let's just ask the question why would EU want to shoot itself on both feet even if Russia was the root of all evil?

Trying to get the amount of energy somewhere else would mean instant and long-time volatility in the global energy markets, probably rising the prices a lot. Russia would actually make a killing selling the surplus to China, India and any other taker (like USA) willing to buy cheaper energy.

So, let's propose that USA starts the energy diet, and guarantees EU stable, affordable prices of imported energy - even at the expense of US consumers - and cutting all purchases of Russian energy before EU does. USA and EU are allies, right, so the pain should be shared.

Best counter to Putin would be agreeing for NATO not to expand, withdrawal of US troops (yes, both of them!) from Europe and agree on long term gas prices and quotas. Then he wouldn't have anything to complain about, and he would probably retire a happy man.

Then we would have to deal with some more extreme dudes like Zhirinovsky, Zyuganov or God forbid, somebody from the liberals.

by pelgus on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 02:44:06 PM EST
Yesterday I listened to a bit of audio of an interview ... most likely at the MSC ... and I thought it was Ukrainian hardliner FM Kuleba reacting to a question whether Ukraine has been asked by the US to forfeit on NATO membership to compromise ... "No not from the US, but from European NATO allies" ... that gives us some hope. That would be France, Germany and Italy for sure ... war inside Europe is not an option.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Feb 21st, 2022 at 05:08:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
my, how quickly posts can age.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Feb 22nd, 2022 at 03:47:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Mar 3rd, 2022 at 11:45:18 PM EST
This is EuroTrib, where US-bashing is an established tradition. And deservedly so. But there is a big difference: the US still maintains a lot of autonomy of action in the energy marketplace.

The US has a lot of wind power, ironically it is mostly in politically conservative areas. Similarly with solar energy, which is coming in with such low bids for new production that even the most politically conservative areas accept it--because of the cost. Also the US has a lot of oil and gas. Most small towns have railroad rights of way still in place, even if there is very limited freight (and no passenger) service. (Newer subdivisions not so much.) Bottom line: disregarding climate change, the US has a pretty wide degree of flexibility in how it might modify its energy sources and use cases over time.

And if the US were to take climate change seriously, which I doubt will happen during my lifetime, the flexibility in energy resources is in place.

Europe is in a much worse situation. Closing nukes when still burning lignite is a really bad decision. Building gas pipelines from unfriendly neighboring countries in the hopes that the commercial factor will keep them at least semi-friendly is a bad decision. Having an economy that depends heavily on the automobile industry, ugh.

Each country or region has a different array of problems and potential solutions, whether it is China or Russia or Europe or Brazil or the US. I suspect that if you rank the range of options, Europe would come out near the bottom. It will take a pile of work to get ahead of this situation.

by asdf on Sat Mar 12th, 2022 at 12:16:48 AM EST
How fast can EU Get Off Gas
https:/www.canarymedia.com/articles/fossil-fuels/how-fast-can-europe-wean-itself-off-russian-gas

IEA 10 point plan to reduce Russian gas consumption
https:
www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-european-unions-reliance-on-russian-natura l-gas

PS:  About 2/3ds of the energy USAmerican produces is characterized by Lawrence Livermore National Labs which does the annual energy report as "rejected energy," it does no useful work.  I suspect the most other countries in the world have similar figures in terms of energy "waste."  There's a lot of slack there if we pay attention to it.  We have buildings which produce all the energy they use in both the Arctic and the Antarctic now and I've been collecting links to "zero net energy" (or net zero energy) buildings and developments for years now, all available at  https:/zeronetenrg.blogspot.com


Solar IS Civil Defense

by gmoke on Sat Mar 12th, 2022 at 07:58:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
France is (was! before generalization of tablets/smartphones) using full time 1,5 of its nuclear plants to fulfill the 'needs' of devices on 'sleeping mode'
by Tom2 on Sat Mar 12th, 2022 at 08:27:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another way of looking at it is that big thermal plants (coal, nuclear) are not easy to cycle between high and low load. Therefore, the term "base load" was invented, and the rate structures adjusted to encourage load shifting to night when the "natural load" was low. Entirely to protect and support the conventional thermal generating technology.

If you change the tariffs to encourage the use of energy when the Sun is shining or the wind is blowing, most consumers will take advantage of it. Some large industrial processes involving furnaces, etc., do actually require 24/7 energy to maintain operation, but not all.

by asdf on Sun Mar 13th, 2022 at 03:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Europe is in a much worse situation. Closing nukes when still burning lignite is a really bad decision.

Well, just a couple of weeks ago Macron announced six new nuclear reactors (the first scheduled to come on line in 2035!)

Astonishingly, the announcement provoked very little controversy or pushback (his timing turned out to be inspired of course).

Macron said the new plants would be built and operated by state-controlled energy provider EDF and that tens of billions of euros in public financing would be mobilized to finance the projects and safeguard EDF's finances.

Personally I have flip-flopped a couple of times on nuclear (over global warming in the 2000s; then backflip after Fukushima) and find myself flipping back again.

I am relieved to learn that it will be an all-EDF operation (vertical integration is a good thing with nulear). The EU energy regs can be tweaked later.

France had cheap electricity for decades (those days are over thankfully), because of ignoring the unfinanced sunk costs of the nukes. Apart from subsidising industry, this also meant that most rental accomodation in France is still electrically heated and poorly insulated...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Mar 13th, 2022 at 12:36:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Mon Mar 21st, 2022 at 08:35:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well yes, energy costs a lot, one way or another. The EU should be (but, sadly, nation states are in practice) responsible for ensuring people get what they need, but it cannot be through low prices for everything.

Also : What Jérôme said, with one correction :

Which takes us back to the EU energy policy, which was largely designed in the 80s and 90s when the push towards market liberalisation, originating in the US and the UK, moved to the rest of Europe and found a home in the EU Commission, and, willfully or not, set out to destroy every aspect of French policyrationality or strategic planning.
 

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Mar 22nd, 2022 at 09:25:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sweden has been divided into four electricity price sectors since 2011. A ruling came down from the EU that Sweden could not sell externally at a higher rate then internally, so to protect low energy prices for central Sweden, and to avoid transmission capacity through Sweden being the used to much to send electrons to the borders, the price sectors were invented.

So southernmost Sweden - the former Danish areas - are now more exposed to EU electricity pices, while central and north Sweden are more insulated.

by fjallstrom on Fri Mar 25th, 2022 at 08:08:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
euractiv | LNG projects in the Gulf of Mexico boosted as Russian gas alternative, 21 Mar project finance UPDATE
"That's a big deal for banks that are sensitive to policy pressure, and public pressure, to support the infrastructure investments," he said.

According to the Natural Gas Supply Association, each liquefaction plant requires an investment of $10 to $20 billion. Only nuclear power plants require more up-front capital.

However, not everyone is so happy about the gas sector's bright future.

Offshore wind debt - 15 years on, 10 Mar
by Cat on Wed Mar 23rd, 2022 at 07:19:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
$10 billion would buy a lot of solar panels
by asdf on Thu Mar 24th, 2022 at 04:25:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Thu Mar 24th, 2022 at 04:55:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for reading and remembering.  I appreciate it.

Solar IS Civil Defense
by gmoke on Thu Mar 24th, 2022 at 06:42:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What the EU is for

Germany was willing for Gazprom to supply all its gas, on demand, reliable partners.

Everyone was puzzled at the low level of European gas storage from last summer. Nevermind, market forces know best!

Now the EU is sticking its big nose into MACRO-PLANNING.

A new mandatory certification scheme for owners of gas storage infrastructure was tabled by the European Commission on Wednesday (23 March), warning that those posing a security risk to Europe will have to give up ownership or cede control of facilities.

The new certification scheme "will avoid potential risks resulting from outside influence over critical storage infrastructure," the European Commission said.

"Gazprom-owned or not, all storage facilities should go through a certification process" to demonstrate they are not putting the EU's energy security at risk, said a senior EU official who briefed the press.

This means that "non-certified operators will have to give up ownership or control of EU gas storage facilities," the EU executive added in their statement.

The new certification scheme aims to prevent a repeat of summer 2021 when Gazprom did not replenish its European gas storage facilities ahead of the winter season.

"Gazprom-owned storage was far below the levels of filling compared to non-Gazprom owned. So that's an indication," the official explained.
Russian state-owned monopoly Gazprom operates gas storage facilities in Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and other European countries outside the EU. It is suspected of having deliberately kept its storage at a low level during the summer preceding the invasion of Ukraine.

As part of its new gas storage regulation, the Commission also proposes introducing a minimum 80% gas storage level obligation for next winter to ensure the security of energy supply, rising to 90% for the following years.

To incentivise the refilling of EU gas storage facilities, the Commission also proposes a 100% discount on tariffs at entry and exit points of storage facilities. Until now, it was only possible to offer a discount of up to 50%, but not to totally eliminate them, the official explained.



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Mar 29th, 2022 at 09:38:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Seems like re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic if you ask me.
by asdf on Tue Mar 29th, 2022 at 05:08:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am opposed to nukes for reasons of long-term safety. The problem is that nukes are an "easy" solution while solar and wind are "hard" solutions. Which makes no sense.

The reasonable thing to do would be to have a high-priority solar panel construction plan and a tariff environment that encourages people to use energy during the day.

by asdf on Tue Mar 22nd, 2022 at 04:15:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

euractiv | Denmark resumes construction of Norway-Poland gas link, 11 Mar
Energinet said it had now received a new environmental permit and it still expects the pipeline to be partially operational from 1 October this year and running at full capacity of up to 10 billion cubic metres from 1 January 2023.
[...]
A natural gas pipeline linking Poland to a liquefied natural gas [LNG] terminal in Lithuania, called GIPL, will open on 1 May, Lithuania announced on 7 March, earlier than the scheduled mid-2022 start. GIPL will allow Poland to boost LNG imports and to ship gas to the Baltic states to smooth out any interruptions.

The pipeline, designed to have a capacity to ship about 2.4 billion cubic meters of gas per year in both directions, was financed by the European Union to help Poland and the Baltic states boost supply security.

by Cat on Sun Mar 13th, 2022 at 12:04:17 AM EST
by Cat on Fri Mar 25th, 2022 at 06:09:51 AM EST
Sure, makes sense. Electric cars are a way to reduce the CO2 emissions of transportation while maintaining almost the same user experience as you get with ICE-powered cars. They rely on whatever electricity supply system you have, which would be great if it were solar or wind--and is not so great if it is coal or natural gas. EVs also maintain the "make a new one every few years which involves a lot of manufacturing energy" model. Busses or trains have longer lifetimes and cost less per passenger-mile to manufacture. Again, if there is plenty of emissions-free energy to run the manufacturing plant, maybe that would not be the worst thing.

The whole trick for the next century is going to be to manage the balance between maintaining public expectations for housing, transport, food, work-life conditions against the reality of climate change and the massive disruption it will cause. It would be a tough balance in the best of conditions and global politics does not offer the best of conditions.

by asdf on Fri Mar 25th, 2022 at 03:44:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
problem recognition: ineluctable Climate Change "offending people in faraway countries" defined by PUTIN'S WAR
APsplainin | Ice shelf collapses in previously stable East Antarctica, 25 Mar

"previously stable"

Satellite photos show the area had been shrinking rapidly the last couple of years, and now scientists wonder if they have been overestimating East Antarctica's stability and resistance to global warming that has been melting ice rapidly on the smaller western side and the vulnerable peninsula.
[...]
"We probably are seeing the result of a lot of long time increased ocean warming there," [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute "ice scientist" Catherine] Walker said. "it's just been melting and melting."
"water science"
earthhow | The Major Ocean Currents of the World
This story tells us that ocean currents aren't easy to follow. Their paths are dynamic. And it's even unpredictable. Just take a look at NASA's [computer model] ocean currents maps. They show the beauty and complex nature of this phenomenon.
archived jet streams of BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS
by Cat on Sun Mar 27th, 2022 at 03:48:47 PM EST


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