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Climate Deadlines

by gmoke Fri Mar 11th, 2022 at 05:11:01 AM EST

According to this carbon countdown clock (https:/www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/clock/carbon_clock.htm), at the current rate (1,337 tonnes per second or 42.2 gigatonnes [Gt] per year), the most CO2 we can emit to stay below 1.5ºC rise (global average surface temperature is 1.2ºC above what it was in 1880 and the annual rate of change has doubled in the last 40 years) is 400 Gt, starting from 2020, and that carbon budget will be used up by about July/August  2029.  

We are at 311 Gts left as I write (3/8/22).

To stay below the 2°C threshold, the carbon budget deadline is April/May 2047.  No more than 1061 Gt of CO2 emitted between now and then if we want to stay below that temperature limit.

I'd like to think there are a whole bunch of wise, dedicated people backcasting from those dates and figuring out what we can do daily, weekly, monthly in the next 7 years and a few months, 25 years and a month or two so that we don't exceed those limits.  If there is, I wish there'd be a more public conversation about it.

Maybe even an even an online all the time, open source simulation/conversation, a World Game (https:/worldgameworkshop.org) where those of us all who are for the benefit of all, as my friend the ethicist Milt Raymond would say, could play out the next 7-25 years repairing the climate damage our species has done and is doing, envisioning how "To make the world work for 100% of humanity in the shortest possible time through spontaneous cooperation without ecological offense or the disadvantage of anyone," as R. Buckminster Fuller, the originator of the game, said.

Fuller also wrote, "Quite clearly, our task is predominantly metaphysical, for it is how to get all of humanity to educate itself swiftly enough to generate spontaneous behaviors that will avoid extinction."

How about a global online design workshop on a climate successful 2029 or 2047?  Just as a thought experiment.


We remain alert so as not to get run down, but it turns out you only have to hop a few feet to one side and the whole huge machinery rolls by, not seeing you at all.
Lew Welch

the war that matters is the war against the imagination
all other wars are subsumed in it.
Diane di Prima

Poll
More climate deadlines?
. yes 0%
. no 0%
. not yes 0%
. not no 0%
. neither yes nor no 0%
. both yes and no 0%
. don't understand the question? 0%
. none of the above 0%

Votes: 0
Results | Other Polls
Display:
IF it were the case that everybody on the planet agreed that the climate change problem needs drastic action, it would be almost impossible to take that action quickly enough. But probably less than 1/3 (guessing) of people even agree with the climate scientists in broad terms, and when you suggest that people become vegetarian, and stop traveling to work and holiday, and turn their furnaces down to 0 C*, the fraction probably is in the single digits of percentage.

* Even amateur campers routinely cope with sub-freezing temperatures at night. A decent sleeping bag is good to very low temperatures, and a down blanket in a bedroom can work even better. Why do people run expensive furnaces to keep their houses at "room temperature" at night?

by asdf on Sat Mar 12th, 2022 at 12:05:10 AM EST
https:/www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/09/14/in-response-to-climate-change-citizens-in-advanced-eco nomies-are-willing-to-alter-how-they-live-and-work

72% very or somewhat concerned, based upon polling 17 different countries
80% willing to make a lot or some changes in how they live, work, and travel

Personally, I can't be bothered with doom and gloom because I know I'm gonna die and wrestling the positive possibilities around energy and climate, doing positive protest, into public conversation is how I've lived my life this far.  No real reason to change now and, besides, I'm stuck in this rut.

Solar IS Civil Defense

by gmoke on Sat Mar 12th, 2022 at 08:12:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Example of how humans are easily distracted: A few comments on climate change, which is what is going to be an unimaginably huge disaster within a couple of decades, compared to hundreds of comments about oil prices, apartment buildings blown up, economic difficulties in the car industry, refugees, politicians talking loudly about the bad guys while protecting the bad guys--all short term problems.
by asdf on Fri Mar 18th, 2022 at 04:02:48 PM EST
What is even worse, is that a crisis such as the current war is of course an immense OPPORTUNITY for some. The politicians who have been coerced into taking timid and tentative steps in the right direction on climate change can now come stampeding back into the arms of the fossil-fuel people, because, you know, there's an emergency, we have to re-open the coal mines.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Mar 18th, 2022 at 04:18:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In USAmerica, I've been astonished how our politicians, even the ones who are working hardest on the issue, tend not to mention that wind energy tech and solar installer have been the fastest growing jobs for a few years now, that one way to blunt Putin's energy weapons of the oil and gas spigots is to speed the necessary transition to renewables and storage, and that making that transition will probably pay for itself or close to by lowering healthcare costs since so many will no longer be affected by pollutants belched out by gas, oil, and coal power plants (and the requisite mining and drilling that come with them).

My suspicion is that it may be a little (just a little) better in the EU but I could be wrong about that.

Solar IS Civil Defense

by gmoke on Fri Mar 18th, 2022 at 04:24:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I honestly thought we were getting real momentum on that, but now, frankly, all bets are off.

The critical element is whether the German coalition now sticks to its very ambitious Energiewende, for which they still planned to rely on Russian gas for load balancing. Nothing in the current crisis makes the planned massive expansion of solar and wind any less vital. Fingers crossed.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Mar 18th, 2022 at 04:43:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
euronews | Greek farmers stage protest outside agricultural ministry over rising costs , 18 Mar 2022
The Greek government had announced €1.1 billion in financial support earlier this week to help struggling businesses and lower-income households. But farming associations say they were largely left out of the package.

Huge rises in energy costs have hit Greek farmers, who have passed many of the increases on to food prices.

eurostat
Energy inflation rate continues upward hike, hits 27% a/o 25 Feb 2022
Weekly Oil Bulletin / Maps with the € prices in EU countries a/o 14 Mar 2022
Comparative price levels of consumer goods and services (HFCE 2020); next update 20 June 2022

by Cat on Fri Mar 18th, 2022 at 06:29:20 PM EST
by Cat on Fri Mar 18th, 2022 at 08:30:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But..it is the brutto... bring in the rent average prices
by Tom2 on Fri Mar 18th, 2022 at 08:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EU6 is no country for the poor!

On the upside, a/o Jan 2022, euro area unemployment (15-74 y.o) was 6.8%, or just! 11M; EU27 was 6.2%, or 13M total. Seasonal adjusted figures per EU member (p 4) range 2% - 13%

before PUTIN'S WAR displaced 3.2M innocent civilians.

by Cat on Fri Mar 18th, 2022 at 09:43:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Farmers are almost always in a financial squeeze and now with no fertilizers or agricultural minerals or grain coming from Russia and Ukraine for the next growing season, in all probability, with global food price inflation having gone up over 20% from 2020 to 2021 and low global food stocks, farmers need all the help they can get.

Solar IS Civil Defense
by gmoke on Sat Mar 19th, 2022 at 06:22:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The big issue is nitrogen fertilizer prices.
Methane being the primary ingredient, the price of gas is the predominant factor in the price of fertilizer, so it's doubled in the past few weeks -- having previously tripled since last summer.
so we're talking 230 €/ton -> 1200 € / ton currently.

Result : a lot of farmers in France will not be using chemical fertilisers this year, so their yields will suffer.

Side-effect : organic agriculture suddenly became a LOT more competitive. Fine margins.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sat Mar 19th, 2022 at 07:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
euractiv | Spanish farmers, food producers demand urgent measures to tackle soaring energy prices, 21 Mar
On Sunday, over 1,500 buses arrived in Madrid crammed with protesters who marched with tractors, dogs and horses to the sound of trumpets and cowbells.
[...]
They demand an action plan to deal with the soaring costs rural sectors face - including the agri-food industry which is one of Spain's key economic sectors - and the low-profit margins which have been aggravated by the war in Ukraine, rocketing fuel prices and a shortage of grains used to feed livestock. Protesters are also demanding Spain's new food supply chain law be rolled out to allow producers to sell at fair prices and not below production costs.
[...]
The demonstration came after an open-ended strike by truckers which started Monday and is disrupting supply chains, causing road closures and paralysing key sectors, including the agri-food industry. The strike has forced some sectors to stop production and supermarket shelves are already short of dairy products.
by Cat on Tue Mar 22nd, 2022 at 03:54:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
APsplainin aid package to help farmers [figuratively] weather Ukraine war, € 500M (USD 549M)
The European Commission said the proposed aid would be distributed in national allocations. The commission's plan also would authorize EU countries to supplement the bloc's support by up to 200% through their own contributions, which could generate another 1 billion euros.
WHO PAYS for that?
The 500 million euros in aid would come from a 2022 budget reserve that was included in case of a major crisis in the agriculture sector. The European Parliament and the European Council, which comprises the leaders of EU members, need to agree to the transfer of money for the package to take effect.
Brussels relaxes state aid rules for companies impacted by war in Ukraine
The new framework introduced on Wednesday will enable member states to grant "limited amounts of aid" to companies affected by the current crisis or by sanctions and countersanctions and compensate them for additional costs incurred due to "exceptionally high gas and electricity prices". Member states will also be able to subsidise loans to companies impacted.

Businesses described as "intensive energy users" will be able to get compensated for the sharp increase in gas and electricity prices although aid is capped at 30% of eligible cost, up to a maximum of €2 million. If it suffers additional losses that may endanger its survival, aid can be increased to up to 25 million or 50 million of they operate in specific sectors including the production of aluminium and other metals, glass fibres, pulp, fertiliser or hydrogen and many basic chemicals.

by Cat on Wed Mar 23rd, 2022 at 01:59:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Politico.eu.com | Spain's Western Sahara pivot raises energy supply fears, post-colonial hijinks
The Spanish government of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has ended nearly five decades of neutrality on the issue by backing Morocco's 2007 proposal that Western Sahara should be granted autonomous status, albeit under the North African country's control. In a letter to Morocco's King Mohammed VI, Sánchez described the plan as "the most serious, credible and realistic basis for the resolution of this disagreement."
[...]
Algeria's TSA news agency quoted a senior official in the country's government who described this as "the second historic betrayal of the Saharawi people by Madrid" -- after it handed the colony to Morocco and Mauritania in 1975.

Last year, Algeria supplied nearly half of Spain's natural gas. In the context of the ["]European energy crisis["], aggravating a major supplier could seem foolhardy. The conservative former prime minister, José María Aznar, said Sánchez had made "a mistake with historic consequences for which we will pay dearly."

ES "now importing more from the U.S."
"I don't think [Algeria] are going to play energy hardball," said Jacob Mundy, visiting fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, who points out that Spain is the North African country's second-biggest buyer of gas, after Italy. "If Algeria are going to try to position themselves as an alternative to Russian gas supplies, cutting off Spain over Western Sahara is not going to be the way to demonstrate that," he added.

Nonetheless, Sánchez has faced substantial domestic blowback from his surprise Western Saharan shift, with claims that the decision was hatched without consensus or transparency.


protest Bingo
PeoplesDispatch | Working class sections across Spain protest cost of living crisis, 23 Mar
"In Spain, rents cannot continue to be revalued with this inflation. There are several billion people with salaries and with very vulnerable and low incomes, people who earn less than the Minimum Interprofessional Wage (SMI), because they work part-time, and people with hardly any resources who require help to be able to face essential expenses such as electricity or the shopping basket," Sordo said.
REUTERS | Spanish truckers to continue strike after rejecting new government aid package, 25 Mar
euronews | EU leaders rebuff Spain's pleas for market reform to curb electricity prices, 25 Mar
France24 | Thousands protest against abortion in Madrid, 27 Mar
by Cat on Mon Mar 28th, 2022 at 07:59:42 PM EST
Complicated relations across the Straits of Gibraltar are of course much older than the nation states  of Spain and Morocco, but culturally the two are pretty close.
The pseudomilitary Algerian regime maintains and pays a pantomime Sarahoui army to piss off the Moroccan government, and to give Algerians something other than football to hate Moroccans for (it's called nation building).

Failing a return to the golden age (11th to 13th centuries), I certainly hope governmental relations between Spain and Morocco will improve. So that I can again buy beers in Ceuta when I'm visiting my inlaws.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Mar 29th, 2022 at 12:58:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
euractiv | Europe's booming demand for heat pumps exposes bottlenecks, 28 Mar
It's not just the manufacturing capacity that is running behind - the lack of skilled workers is also an issue.
barriers? oh? What barriers?
archived It's frustrating
by Cat on Mon Mar 28th, 2022 at 09:32:19 PM EST
In the US, the Biden administration even reportedly considered a wartime industrial effort to mass-manufacture heat pumps and ship them across the Atlantic in order to help Europeans wean themselves off Russian gas.

Yes! Yes! Lend-lease II ! That'll show Pooty.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Mar 29th, 2022 at 01:22:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One thing heat pump enthusiasts should be aware of is that they are air conditioners. Take a trip to Arizona or California or Nevada and enjoy the 24/7 whine of the A/C pumps and fans.

Based on quotes I have gotten for replacing my gas furnace with a heat pump, I'm strongly inclined to think that straight resistive heating is going to be a strong contender. Heat pumps are a lot more efficient (300% vs 100%), but the capital cost is enormous. You can buy a tremendous amount of insulation and new windows and drapes for the cost of a heat pump.

by asdf on Tue Mar 29th, 2022 at 02:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Everything you always wanted to know about int'l. LNG marketing but were afraid to ask, S/D sources
... A simple calculation shows the monthly transport of 5.8 billion cubic metres of LNG by vessels with a capacity of 266,000 cubic metres of LNG requires a total of 21,852 shipments per month or approximately 705 shipments per day.
[...]
Since the EU has voiced the intention to fully eliminate the need for Russian LNG by the year 2030 the time to recover the investment in vessels and related LNG infrastructure is extremely limited. Within 8 years the EU seeks to fully replace the entire volume of LNG represented by Russian imports. The IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Roadmap helps fulfil the European Green Deal, an ambitious plan to eliminate all FF emissions in 28 years.

In 2020, U.S. natural gas production was about 10% greater than U.S. total natural gas consumption. The volume of produced gas surplus to US demand amounts to 91.5 billion cubic feet per day or 2.5 billion cubic metres of natural gas per day. This surplus is already contracted to the following countries ...

EIA Volumes in Million Cubic Feet, Prices in USD per Thousand Cubic Feet (ft³:m³, 1:0.028)
by Cat on Tue Mar 29th, 2022 at 10:43:11 PM EST
So Europe will need to instantaneously transform its entire household heating, electricity generation, and industrial processes to solar and wind power. I suppose somebody has done the calculation for the cost of putting up a bunch of solar panels in Spain, Italy, Greece, etc. and the associated transmission lines. And the changes to households, factories, etc.

Short sighted humans.  :-(

by asdf on Tue Mar 29th, 2022 at 10:56:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
REUTERS | Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline fall to zero, other flows steady, 29 Mar
dry run
euractiv | What happens if Russia turns off gas flows to Germany?, 30 Mar
"Berlin's 'Emergency Plan Gas' has three crisis levels."
P.C. Roberts | Petro-Ruble: Why Western States Will End Up Buying Russian Gas for Rubles, 28 Mar
The sanctioning countries that have breached all their contracts with Russia have no right to complain that Russia breaches one in return. If the countries refuse to pay, Putin should immediately turn off the energy. Indeed, he should have done so before launching his military operation in Donbass. It is nonsensical for Russia to keep alive the economies of countries that are sending weapons to Ukrainian Nazis to kill Russians. [...] Russia, erroneously believing she needs foreign currency reserves, has billed in foreign currencies instead of rubles. This mindless policy had two great harmful effects on Russia. One is that the foreign currency reserves are easily frozen or confiscated. The other is that the policy supports the value of the US dollar and euro instead of the value of the ruble. Russia should price all of its exports to everyone in rubles.
Next level sanctions provocation in the annals of homicidal mania in the pipelines ...

The 1941 De Facto [sic] Embargo on Oil to Japan: A Bureaucratic Reflex
jacar.go.jp | August 1, 1941, The US bans oil exports to all aggressor countries
"Document 1: B02030753200 File of Important Materials Relating to Diplomatic Relations with the United States, Vol. 3 - Speeches, Statements, and Related Documents since February this Year - 2 Images 5 to 9", FDR Executive Orders

by Cat on Wed Mar 30th, 2022 at 05:21:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1941, July 26, United States ["]freezes["] Japanese assets
"President Roosevelt SWUNG INTO ACTION by freezing all Japanese assets in America. Britain and the Dutch East Indies followed suit" because International Norms®
by Cat on Wed Mar 30th, 2022 at 05:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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