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Chronicle of a Foretold Election

by Bernard Sat Apr 2nd, 2022 at 08:47:16 PM EST

The title of this diary is, of course, totally stolen from a well known Colombian novelist, Nobel prize in literature.

This April, there will be elections in several European countries, starting Sunday, April 3, with general elections in both Serbia and Hungary. Also, parliamentary elections in Slovenia will take place on April 24 - Polls often take place on Sundays on the European continent.

Since I don't know much about the Hungarian, Serbian or Slovenian politics, I will focus on the upcoming French presidential elections instead:

  • First round is scheduled for Sunday April 10: there are twelve candidates, including the incumbent, Emmanuel Macron.
  • Second round is scheduled for Sunday April 24: the two candidates with the most votes at the end of the first round, will enter a run-off second round.


Disunited Left

Five candidates on the left, well, six with Yannick Jadot, the Green (Europe-Ecologie-Les-Verts).

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who left the Socialist party in 2008 has been leading his own party, now named "La France Insoumise" (France Unbowed). He's the candidate with the best polling numbers on the left: about 14-15% on average. Despite his past support to Putin (no longer since the invasion of Ukraine) and Chavez/Maduro, his polling has actually improved since the beginning of the year: his voters are from the working class to a large part, and care more about employment, salaries and price increases than international issues.

Anne Hidalgo, the Mayor of Paris, is running for the Socialist party (PS). Shockingly for a party that has held the Elysée palace for a large part of the 80's, the 90's and more recently during the François Hollande term (2012-2017), she is polling between 2 and 3%, actually behind Fabien Roussel, the Communist party candidate (3-4%), and barely above the two Trotskyist candidates, P.Poutou and N.Artaud. A Communist candidate getting more vote than the PS one would be a first, since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958.
The Socialist party has been slowly disintegrating for the past five years, when Macron, who worked for F.Hollande and served in the Cabinet, successfully ran for president and founded his own party, La République En Marche (LREM). Internal infighting within the PS and the desertion of several figures for Macron's LREM has precipitated the decline.

Despite the good numbers of the Greens during the EP elections and the municipal elections two years ago, where several big cities, like Bordeaux, Poitiers, Strasbourg, Lyon and Grenoble elected a Green mayor, the presidential candidate, Yannick Jadot, is barely polling above 5%. Environment and climate change issues are very much on the mind of many voters, but not to the point of bringing a Green politician to the Elysée palace.

Fifty Shades of Fascist

There are three extreme right candidates, presenting a large and varied menu of racist, xenophobic, revisionist and plain authoritarian themes.

N.Dupont-Aignan is running again on a Euroskeptic platform with more than a whiff of xenophobia; his poll numbers are under 2% and he'll do no better than the previous elections in 2012 and 2017.

Firebrand Eric Zemmour, who started as the French Tucker Carlson on the news channel Cnews, supported by French billionaire Vincent Bolloré, is now trying to be the French Donald Trump - lies and damn lies very much included. He's been polling up to 16% back in December, but the Russian invasion has reminded a part of his electorate, mostly urban and middle class, than he's actually been branding himself as the French Putin ("France needs a Putin" he said); his numbers have dipped to about 11%.

Just like in 2017, Marine Le Pen (National Rally - RN) is expected to move to the second round on April 24, facing Macron: she's presently polling about 18-20%. She's been trying to present herself as a "moderate nationalistic right", especially compared to Zemmour, but she's still putting themes like immigration and crime at the forefront of her campaign.

The Schrödinger Candidate

Macron has waited until the last moment (the day before the legal limit - early March) before announcing he's running for a second term. But this was becoming the worst kept secret of the Republic: everybody knew he was campaigning without "campaigning". The war in Ukraine has boosted his poll numbers (25-30%), but has also taken a good part of his time and he's been doing relatively little campaigning, leaving his supporters doing most of the legwork. Luckily for him, he has managed to gather support from former members of the PS and also members of the mainstream right-wing party: Les Républicains - LR (for some reason, the Englis language MSM calls this party "centre-right"),

Speaking of  Les Républicains, the candidate was selected following a primary last fall (same for the PS), and as Anne Hidalgo won the Socialist primary, Valérie Pécresse, president of the Île-de-France region (the Paris region), won the LR primary. Despite having been selected by her party, Pécresse is trailing badly in the polls: barely above 10% after peaking at 16% earlier this year.

Just like for the socialists, this is quite a surprise for the party of De Gaulle, Chirac and, more recently, Sarkozy. The reason may be similar to the one affecting the socialist campaign: Macron's LREM party has been vacuuming many party cadres; some of the party's most conservative wing have also moved to support Zemmour or other extreme-right candidates. Speaking of Sarkozy, the ex-president has conspicuously refrained from expressing any support for Pécresse (his own party's candidate), and is said to be negotiating with Macron. Part of the success of LREM party with the right is ideological: Macron presented himself as a "centrist" but has been pushing right-wing policies. There is also the bank robber argument: that's where the money is.

A Foretold Election?

Just like five years ago in 2017, it looks quite certain that Macro and Le Pen will face off again for the second round on April 24. Then, Macron had trounced Le Pen 66% to 34%. This time, while Macron is still overwhelmingly favorite, the spread between him and Le Pen seems to be narrowing. Some in the Macronia have even started to ring the alarm bell. Macron has been pushing some rather unpopular policies, especially with the working class (remember the gilets jaunes). And there is a worry that many voters from the first round may not be bothered to go to the polls again on the 24th to oppose Le Pen. Then again, working class voters tend to have a lower turnout than middle class and upper middle class.

Still, an extreme right president in France is a possibility, however remote.

A "Third Round"?

The fifth Republic is said to be a "presidential system"; but a president still needs a majority at the parliament to be able to form a cabinet. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 12 (first round) and 19 (second round). Will Macron and his LREM party keep a majority of seats like during the previous legislature, this looks more open than the presidential election. To be continued...

Display:

"Hunting is part of the soul of the countryside," says Denis Plat, chief editor at J'aime la Chasse online magazine. 

Hunting used to be reserved for the nobility, but the 1789 revolution opened it up to everyone and since then it's become one of the most popular and socially diverse activities in France.

"It goes from workers to CEOs, lawyers or employees ... through to the so-called elite with very exclusive hunting estates," Plat explains. "This is the richness of the French hunting tradition and it gives it real strength."

French election candidates meet hunters: what are they proposing?

After the dust clears ...

and the winner is Emmanuelle Macron by a clear margin

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Apr 3rd, 2022 at 07:00:08 AM EST
My assumption has been that it would be Macron vs Le Pen again -- and that Macron would win, but that the gap would get worryingly narrow.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Apr 3rd, 2022 at 04:01:21 PM EST
And that's pretty much what's happening: Macron & Le Pen are leading the polls and are virtually certain to face off in the second round on the 24th.

The Macron camp is getting increasingly worried about the narrowing gap for this second round. Still three weeks away.

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 3rd, 2022 at 04:33:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, it looked like she took a hit -- and Macron got a bounce -- when the invasion happened.  I'd hoped that would hold up and seal it, but it seems to have dissipated pretty quickly.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 10:52:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As I wrote before, the narrowing gap between Macron and Le Pen in the second round polls are starting to worry a lot of people in his camp.

What could derail his probable victory?

Unlike five years ago where he was a newcomer running as a "centrist", Macron is an incumbent and people can judge his five years: a lot of right wing neo-lib policies where a number of labor laws have been dismantled, unemployment benefits have been slashed, the hospitals have been under-staffed (as was painfully clear when the Covid struck), other "security" laws have taken aim at immigrants and Muslims (in the name of the Republic).

Macron has practiced a very vertical leadership style, deciding just about everything, including the sanitary restrictions during the Covid waves; hence his nickname of 'Jupiter' (or "the epidemiologist in chief"). His arrogant technocratic style has grated many people, especially from the working class who were feeling targeted by some of his off-the-cuff comments. The first thing he promised when announcing he'll be running for a second term would be to postpone the minimum retirement age from 62 to 65.

This arrogance has not make him many new friends and actually contributed to the gilets jaunes crisis. His arrogance is also irritating other governments in the EU, particularly on the eastern side, but they are not voting for him: Disenchanted French voters are.

A symbolic although minor issue is the 'McKinseyGate' (yes, we add the -gate suffix too in France): the Macron government has tripled the amount of contracts awarded to big consultancies, like McKinsey, whose some of their managers had been campaigning pro-bono for Macron back in 2017. Many of these contracts show a not obvious value for the money, and critics highlight that many (not all) of these missions could have been carried out by civil servants.

Cherry on the cake: McKinsey has not paid taxes in France, thanks to a perfectly legal tax avoidance accounting strategy. Macron and his camp are claiming that every was legal and above board, but it is still sticking to his shoes like an unwanted piece of bubble gum.

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 3rd, 2022 at 04:54:42 PM EST
Marine Le Pen, daughter of the Front National founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, has been trying for years to smooth her party's extreme right image, while keeping the same anti-immigrant platform and a more 'populist' approach. She is posturing as being on the side of the working class, against big money (especially the foreign one - read American):  a positioning that used to be the one of the Communist party and now also 'Unbowed France' (LFI), the party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Le Pen has been more successful at getting support from the working class than her counterparts from the Communists and LFI, mostly by providing easy scapegoats, like immigrants and Islam.

Her main weak point is her lack of breadth: besides the usual 'stop immigration' and 'salary increase across the board', the political program shows little direction. It doesn't matter to those who rage against 'the system', but it does little to attract new voters.

Another weak point is of course her international exposure: she hasn't much to show besides Hungary's Victor Orbán whom she supports (her party reportedly got a loan from a Orbán linked Hungarian banks), and of course her relationship and past statements of support to Vladimir Putin. When the Russian army invaded Ukraine back in February, Le Pen frenetically tried to get rid of over a million of election flyers that were featuring a picture of her meeting Putin in Moscow five years ago, during her second run in the presidential election.

International issues do not matter as much to her base (unlike Eric Zemmour supporters), so her poll numbers haven't been affected and she quickly condemned the Russian invasion. It still shows her main challenge to get "acceptable" to a broader section of the electorate.

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 3rd, 2022 at 05:23:02 PM EST
What could also derail either one: While French polling is generally very highly thought of, polling races with > 2 viable candidates is pretty tricky.  Statistically it wouldn't be altogether shocking if (say) Le Pen didn't advance.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 02:00:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for this, excellent overview.

I gather from your account that you have to poll at least 2% to get on first name terms with the electorate. Everyone under 2% is listed by their initial and surname only!

Why does it take the French two rounds of voting to decide an election? In Ireland, it's hard enough yo get people to come out to vote once,  but you get to order the candidates 1,2,3,4... in order of you're choice and your vote is transferred to your next preference if you're higher preference is eliminated.  More fun than having just one candidate to vote for, and you can give your no. 1 to a no hoper candidate you want to encourage and still have a say in deciding the final victor.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 3rd, 2022 at 08:00:10 PM EST
There are 12 candidates total; I wanted to focus on the main ones, from the main parties, rather than those we hear about only at a presidential election, every five years.

The two round voting is the brainchild of De Gaulle (and Michel Debré who wrote the constitution of the fifth Republic), who was obsessed with being accountable directly to the people. Hence the requirement for an absolute majority of votes (50% of the vote + 1) and a second round to ensure that, in case no candidate has reached absolute majority in the first round.

Parliamentary elections, scheduled for June 12 and 19, also do have the absolute majority requirement for the first round, and a few lawmakers get elected then. If no one gets an absolute majority, the candidates having got a number of votes corresponding to, at least, one eighth of the total of registered voters, can move to the second round. A relative majority is enough to get elected in the second round.

Preference based voting is an interesting system, but I'm afraid it might be a trifle too subtle for us, simple minded French :)

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 04:53:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the outworkings of a multi-seat constituency single transferable vote system can be quite complex if you want to maximise your seat/vote ratio, but I am always amazed at the degree to which they are understood even by non-political people. The vote count itself can extend to over two days as the votes of eliminated candidates have t be re-counted to see who the next preferred candidate on a ballot is.

It also has a significant effect on political culture, as few candidates get elected on the strength of first preferences alone. All candidates and parties therefore seek to be as "transfer friendly" as possible and avoid insulting or sharp ideological exchanges with their opponents, as these tend to turn most voters off. This has an overall moderating effect on discourse and you don't get quite the extremes you get in some European countries.

N. Ireland is an interesting real world laboratory experiment in the effect of voting systems because Westminster Elections are still held on the basis of single seat, first past the post elections while the same constituency boundaries are used for 5 seat constituency NI Assembly elections (due next month). The first system tends to favour the big sectarian parties while the STV system enables the non-sectarian Alliance party and smaller parties like the Greens and socialists pick up the odd seat in more diverse constituencies - generally in later counts due to the transfer of lower preference votes.

It is getting to the stage where Alliance can challenge all the major parties and pick up seats even in Westminster elections, but it would never have been able to develop that electoral base without its success in local and Assembly elections. I will do a diary on it soon, but at the moment its still all to play for, with the odds being that Sinn Fein will displace the DUP as the largest party and become entitled to the First Minister role, a hugely significant symbolic blow to unionism, even if it means little in practice, as the First and Deputy first ministers can only act in concert.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 05:41:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They don't even need to do multi-seat. Australia has been using single-seat preferential voting (or "instant runoff voting" as the USians call it) for its House 120 years. It ensures both majority support for every winner, and simplicity.

(Of course, something proportional would be better, but for single offices, PV is about as good as you can get).

by IdiotSavant on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 10:34:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd make a joke about New Yorkers and how ridiculous their instant runoff election appeared from afar last year, but it wasn't any more disastrous than their normal elections, I guess.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 11:29:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Only two states conduct a "runoff election" when either of two candidates for a state or federal office does not obtain a simple majority of votes counted in the first ballot, ie. ≥ 50%. The date of the runoff election is set by the state's electoral law, eg. Georgia Code Title 21. Elections § 21-2-501.

In the US "proportional representation" is informally expressed as a ratio, total population of a jurisdiction (city, county, state) divided by fixed number of legislative seats prescribed by a state's constitution. This formula prevails for federal representation, too. The principal effect of the decennial census population estimate requires states' legislators to revise electoral districts according to changes in federal apportionment produced by a multiplier value.

In the US, electoral systems are prescribed by local government to the extent allowed by a state's constitution and superceding electoral statutes. Thus, NYC can enact "ranked choice" (preference, or elimination, ballots) formula to elect officers within its jurisdiction, but election to NY state offices requires candidates' to obtain a simple plurality of votes to prevail (no runoff).

Where Ranked Choice Voting is Used as of April 2022

Political party by-laws and caucus candidate election systems are proprietary--beyond the pale of public law to the extent they to not ultimately prevent voters to  elect anyone (including "write-ins") qualified for general election, administered by a state's electoral functionaries.  

by Cat on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 03:04:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The greatest democratic nation in the worrulld [not counting India etc] doesn't have a common definition of what democracy is. I find that disturbing, but I tend to take that stuff too seriously.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 06:27:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 05:07:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU success story which every EU state should follow is the NL, isnt it?
  https:/www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/04/fewer-drugs-labs-dismantled-as-criminals-are-forced-to-change- tack
by Tom2 on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 05:54:08 PM EST
Your comment is particularly random, even by your standards, Tom.

While you're here, what do you think of the https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html deepfake discussed elsewhere?

Actually, are you the author?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 06:25:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
demonstrations law and order enforcement, political hygiene
NL | Fewer drugs labs dismantled as criminals are forced to change tack

demonstrations law and order enforcement, political hygiene

by Cat on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 01:36:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Race for the Élysée 2022: Macron's lead narrows ahead of first round of French election | France24 |

Will the abstentions neck the chances of Macron in the second round? What is Macron's message ... when will he participate in the election campaign?

5 Years ago ...

A bloody final debate between Macron and Le Pen as France heads toward election runoff | Brookings Inst. - May 4, 2017 |

A new litany of issues and concerns effecting the French communities.

It's buying power stupid ..

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Fri Apr 8th, 2022 at 11:29:14 AM EST
Current polling : Rather than giving numbers, I suggest that those who are interested take a look at one of the numerous aggregators of polls.

Because the shape of the curves are ... interesting, making the result of the first round pretty clear, but the actual numbers rather obscure.

Contexte (independent journalism site)
L'internaute
Wikipedia

They all tell the same story : Macron heading down, Le Pen and Mélenchon heading up.

And the lines are pretty steep, meaning :

  • Le Pen might overtake Macron on Sunday (but materially that changes nothing, she still loses the second round)
  • Mélenchon might overtake Le Pen, if :
  1. the residual vote for the other left candidates (Greens, Communists) collapses further (both are pointing downward because they are already leaking votes to Méluche)
  2. something bad happens to Le Pen.

A Mélenchon/Macron run-off is a very different animal to a Macron/Le Pen run-off; in particular, for the effects on the subsequent legislative elections.

But Macron wins, in all cases.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Apr 8th, 2022 at 02:01:04 PM EST
(apologies for the spoiler)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Apr 8th, 2022 at 02:01:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I spent the evening yesterday pasting up election posters for the Green candidate, Yannick Jadot. Tribal duty.

During the electoral pre-season, I had campaigned a bit for the Primaire Populaire, a citizen's initiative to attempt to designate a single candidate from the left. Given the terrible state of the French left, its fragmentation after the implosion of the PS, and the polarising function of the presidential election itself, it would (will) be disastrous for the left to be absent from the second round. A second presidential election in a row in which the final choice is between the extreme right and the liberal-capital right is staring us in the face.

The Primaire Populaire designated Christiane Taubira, one of the very few people to emerge with any credit from François Hollande's presidency. She was an excellent candidate in her own right, and acceptable to everyone on the left; but none of the other candidates stood aside for her; she peaked at 5% in the polls after her designation, and didn't get enough signatures to be candidate. This week she announced her support for Mélenchon, as she should.

I remain perplexed as to why the Greens have failed to become the mainstream party of the left, to replace the brain-dead Parti Socialiste. I think it's something to do with the French hatred of perceived virtue signaling.

Sandrine Rousseau, eco-feminist, would have been a better candidate than Jadot - she narrowly lost the Green primary, 49-51. Perhaps she would have achieved the breakthrough that Jadot, so serious and electable, has failed to produce. She might have mobilized many of those millions of young, modern French electors who see no reason to dirty their hands by voting.

The official campaign ended at midnight last night : no campaign material can be published, delivered or pasted past midnight. For the poster-pasters, this produces a ritual where the activists of the various candidates are out in the streets pasting over each other, but at 23:55 each team will stake out one particular official poster site, in order to paste at 23:59 and then hang around to prevent another team from (illegally) pasting over them. With my partner, we accomplished this (pasting over Mélenchon) at the site opposite our district's biggest supermarket; then we drove around the block to check on a couple of other sites; then came back to check ar 0:15 to find that we had been pasted over by Péceresse. Unwilling to break the law by pasting over her, we were able to peel her fresh, wet posters off, revealing Jadot.

In the final analysis, Mélenchon will finish third, and Jadot a distant sixth (but second among the candidates of the left).

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sat Apr 9th, 2022 at 03:57:41 PM EST
From French Polynesia, it looks like turnout is just over half what it was last time

https://twitter.com/OceaniaElects/status/1512920445217124352

This is the problem with uninspiring candidates and uninspiring contests: democracy itself suffers.

by IdiotSavant on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 01:51:13 AM EST
The vote was taking place on Saturday 9 in the Caribbean, the American continent and Pacific islands that are east of the International date line. In most countries French residents can vote at the local French consulate.

West of the International date line, like New Caledonia, Wallis & Futuna and French consulates in Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand etc... vote has started earlier today and is already closed by now.

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 10:26:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm being a clerk in my polling place. Nationally, voting is down on 2017 levels, but oddly, it's up at our booth ( urban, young, ethnically diverse and left leaning). I was thinking this might be good overall, and a friend confirmed with :
this Twitter thread

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 05:14:12 PM EST
Sorry, DIY... busy and on phone.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 05:29:16 PM EST
Amazing. On our booth, 774 votes out of 906 on the roll, that's 85%. 8% more than 2017.
The count starts in 13 minutes.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 05:48:04 PM EST
I've seen that turnout was unexpectedly high in Lyon, but lower than expected in Paris. And overall, higher in Western France regions than in the North and Northeast.
by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 05:54:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
First hundred:
Macron 35
Melenchon 24
Jadot 13
Le Pen 11
Zemmour 6
Dupont 3
Peceresse 3
Lasalle 2

I'm almost proud of my hood.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:46:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final score from my polling place :

Candidate      Tendency                Votes    Percent
Macron          Capital-liberalist       256     33,77%
Mélenchon     Strongman-leftist      209     27,57%
Jadot            Green                       79     10,42%
Le Pen           Hard right                75      9,89%
Zemmour        Hardest right           57      7,52%
Péceresse      Vestigial centre right  23    3,03%
Roussel         Palaeo-Communist     20      2,64%
Hidalgo           Vestigial centre left   15     1,98%
Dupont Aignan   Harder right         12      1,58%
Lasalle         Folklorist                   8       1,06%
Poutou        Trotsko-wokist            3       0,40%
Arthaud       Trotsko-stalinist         2      0,26%

I'm proud of my hood. It's fairly typical of the more progessive cities (as I noted above : urban, young, ethnically diverse and left leaning). Personally I noticed the astonishing number of young voters, also the turnout among Black and North African-origin voters was higher than anything I've ever seen in 15 years of poll-volunteering in Lyon.

AND they voted overwhelmingly Mélenchon. No forensic proof of that, but that's the obvious conclusion (Mélenchon won in the "overseas" departements of the Carribean and Indian Ocean which is real interesting)

I will be studying the numbers in detail in the coming weeks... I won't be the only one... Legislative elections in June.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 09:28:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Beginning of a theory: hard right voters are disproportionately pro-Russian. They still tell the pollsters they will vote for Le Pen or the other clown, but they are a little bit depressed and some of them didn't vote.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 05:59:20 PM EST
First results (estimates):

Macron 28.1%
Le Pen 23.3%
Mélenchon 20.1%
Zemmour 7.2%
Pécresse 5%
Jadot 4.4%
Lassalle 3.3%
Roussel 2.7%
Dupont-Aignan 2.3%
Hidalgo 2.1%
Arthaud 0.8%
Poutou 0.7%

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:06:29 PM EST
Macron's lead over Le Pen (almost 5 percentage points) higher than forecasted.

Mélenchon's was real, but not enough to get to the 2nd round. This will be a Macron-Le Pen re-match of 2017.

Two main parties have totally sunk:

  • Les Républicains (Pécresse): beaten by Mélenchon and by Zemmour (Pétainist). Sarkozy refused to support her and is said to be negotiating with Macron (the irresistible smell of hot soup cooking on the stove).

  • The Socialists descent to hell continues unabated: Hidalgo has been beaten not only by the Communists (Roussel) but also by Lassalle (no real party) and Dupont-Aignan (extreme right).

Also, as much as the Greens have done rather well for the municipal elections two years ago, the presidential one is really not their thing. The fact there were so many left wing candidates didn't help either.
by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:20:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The 4.7% for Jadot really sucks... the Greens only ever broke the 5% threshold once in the Presidentials (which is an election which is contrary to our every principle, but that we need to participate in) ... and could really use the public funding.

And I really regret voting for him in the Green primary. He won 51/49 in the second round against radical ecofeminist Sandrine Roussel, who might have made the breakthrough... We'll never know.
And I fell for Mister Electable.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 08:17:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mélenchon is doing quite a bit better than in the polls, isn't he?
by generic on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep: there was a visible upward trend during the last week, but couldn't predict where it would end; now, we know.

Also suspect a lot of "tactical voting": Mélenchon was the only left wing with a smidge of a chance to edge Le Pen out of the second round and many left voters gave up on their candidates and voted Mélenchon instead.

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:30:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A real pity that it didn't seem to work out. Here's to another five years of miserable slow or rapid decline.
by generic on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:44:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Revised estimates:

Macron 28.5%
Le Pen 23.6%
Mélenchon 20.3%

Pécresse 4.8%

Note: the 5% threshold is important. Candidates who do not reach it won't get their campaign expenses reimbursed by the state election fund.

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 06:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah Zemmour's party will get a shitload of public funding for his 8%, and will instantly be a power broker on the right... dragging what's left of the Repuglicans (who may be very broke indeed) even further right. For example.

Sarkozy may make a comeback; he would be welcomed as a saviour for what used to be the mainstream right (which is the MAJOR casualty of this election). However, this time around, Sarko won't be arriving with suitcases of dollars from Libya to wipe the party's debts...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 07:54:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It has got even tighter... there will be regrets...
Macron 28
Le Pen 23.2
Mélenchon 21.8

If it gets even tighter between 2 and 3, I might be remorseful about following my convictions and voting for Jadot (I changed my mind a couple of times during the day)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 07:50:04 PM EST
Fuuuuu....

Le Pen : 23.0%
Mélenchon : 22.2%

Ain't over till it's over. But it's over. Don't want to hope.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 08:40:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And now Manuel Valls is being interviewed! (The Man who Missed the Boat)
I guess it's time to go to bed...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 08:43:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Meanwhile, RIA Novosti, taking a break from publishing deranged editorials, keeps presenting their alternative facts:

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 08:42:49 PM EST
Almost complete results (97% of registered voters):
Macron 27.6%
Le Pen 23.41%
Mélenchon 21.95%
Zemmour 7.05%
Pécresse 4.79%
Jadot 4.58%
Lassalle 3.16%
Roussel 2.31%
Dupont-Aignan 2.07%
Hidalgo 1.74%
Poutou 0.77%
Arthaud 0.57%
 
by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Apr 11th, 2022 at 09:25:20 AM EST
And now the final, official results (all votes tallied):

Macron 27.84%
Le Pen 23.15%
Mélenchon 21.95%
Zemmour 7.07%
Pécresse 4.78%
Jadot 4.63%
Lassalle 3.13%
Roussel 2.28%
Dupont-Aignan 2.06%
Hidalgo 1.75%
Poutou 0.77%
Arthaud 0.56%

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Apr 11th, 2022 at 06:04:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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