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Russian war aims in Ukraine

by Frank Schnittger Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 06:23:45 PM EST

As the Ukraine war progresses there has been much confusion over what Russia's real war aims are especially as these appear to have changed as the realities of fierce fighting on the ground have caused them to re-group. Yesterday RIA Novosti, a Russian state media outlet, published a lengthy piece by Timofey Sergeytsev entitled What should Russia do with Ukraine outlining their war aims. (h/t - Andy Thornton). What follows below  are some of the highlights in an English translation of the full article.


The special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated - because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people.


<snip>

Ukrainians disguise their Nazism by calling it a "desire for independence" and a "European way of development". Ukraine doesn't have a Nazi party, a Führer or racial laws, but because of its flexibility, Ukrainian Nazism is far more dangerous to the world than Hitler's Nazism

<snip>

Denazification means de-Ukrainianisation. Ukrainians are an artificial anti-Russian construct. They should no longer have a national identity. Denazification of Ukraine also means its inevitable de-Europeanisation.

<snip>

Ukraine's political elite must be eliminated as it cannot be re-educated. Ordinary Ukrainians must experience all the horrors of war and absorb the experience as a historical lesson and atonement for their guilt.

<snip>

The liberated and denazified territory of the Ukrainian state should no longer be called Ukraine. Denazification should last at least one generation - 25 years.

The author then goes on to explain what must be done, including:

  1. Liquidation of Ukrainian armed forces and all supporting infrastructure

  2. Formation of an anti-Nazi (read pro-Russian government)

  3. Installation of Russian information space

  4. Mass investigative activity into Ukrainian war crimes and support for the Nazi regime

  5. Forced labour, imprisonment and death sentences for all accomplices of the "Nazi regime"

  6. Creation of permanent de-nazification bodies for 25 years

The author places the conflict in the context of the eradication of western totalitarianism and US subjugation and their ungrateful treatment of Russia after all that Russia has done for the west by way of providing alternatives to capitalism.

Display:
Could find very little background of this guy ... undoubtedly more information will surface
in a matter of hours - Timofey Sergeytsev  (Тимофей Сергейцев)

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 08:04:42 PM EST
Normally I wouldn't give much credence to a story written by some random journalist I don't know.. However, this story was published just a couple of days ago in an official Russian government supporting media forum. It also echoes many of the themes in Putin's recent speech on the de-Nazification of Ukraine and the fact that he doesn't consider Ukraine to be a "real" country.

AFAIK the single most influential Russian foreign policy textbook is "The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia" , a book by Aleksandr Dugin who says it was inspired by General Nikolai Klokotov of the Academy of the General Staff and Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, head of the International Department of the Russian Ministry of Defence. It is required reading in Russian military academies. It says of Ukraine:

"Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represent an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible." [see wiki]

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 08:26:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and the fact that he doesn't consider Ukraine to be a "real" country.

This is hardly just Putin. I knew Jewish emigrees from the Cold War who beiieved the same thing.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 10:07:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Timofei Sergeitsev is well known in Ukraine and presidential campaign circles ... responses on an Ukrainian website RFERL Svoboda.

"Appearance with guilt." Runet reads "manifesto of Russian fascism" | RFERL |

Igor Gretsky:

Let me remind you, this is the same political technologist who for many years selflessly worked on pro-Kremlin projects like Prokhorov or Yanukovych. Since the early 2000s, he has voiced Putin's already familiar theses about Ukraine: its "external governance," its "civil war"; about hints at the consequences of decommunization and de-Sovietization in the form of loss of territories, etc. He also pushed the idea of Ukraine as an "instrument of shock to Russia." After the Orange Revolution, he predicted a "lemon revolution" led by Yulia Tymoshenko, which was supposed to make Ukraine a "completely puppet state."

And now about the article itself. It is absolutely cannibalistic. Following in the footsteps of the Italian fascists and the German Nazis, the author justifies national violence. The text essentially justifies the genocide of Ukrainians. But the article is not just about Ukraine. There is an equal sign between Nazism and Europeanization. Consequently, the search for "Nazis" will be not only in Ukraine, but in Russia as well. That is, Russians who considered the European path of development possible for their country will be forced to "part with their pro-European illusions."

Vadim Fulmacht:

In 1999, I had the opportunity to listen to Timofey Sergeytsev's speeches at Artek [Арте́к],  where I was briefly involved as a young man as part of the Street Television project (this was a preparation for Kuchma's election campaign, which I did not yet know about). Sergeytsev spoke very brightly. Dmitry Kulikov, if I'm not mistaken, was also there. These are not some half-witted fanatics like [Alexandre] Dugin and [Sergei] Glazyev, but real intellectuals, very erudite.

Sergeytsev and Co. are professional political technologists, absolutely cynical. However, as shown by the results of their wards in the elections in Ukraine (for example, the result of Yatsenyuk in 2009), they are not able to influence the voter, but are well able to enchant the customer. Hence the obvious conclusion: Sergeytsev's manifesto reflects the main customer's ideas about beauty (in the opinion of Timothy). I do not rule out that this customer has not yet made a choice and has not provided a budget, so Sergeytsev's text is something like a "test task".

Dmitry Shusharin:

Timofey Sergeytsev's article is useful in its own way, both for its frankness and the author's belonging to a fraudulent and fascist - yes, this combination - subculture associated with the names of father and son Shchedrovitsky. The younger one has been training Sergei Kirienko for more than twenty years, which is very significant.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 12:27:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Rise And Fall (And Rise?) Of Arseniy Yatsenyuk | ECFR - Oct 19, 2009 |

Yatsenyuk was suddenly no longer omnipresent on the Inter TV channel then close to Firtash. Pinchuk became the more important sponsor, and replaced Yatsenyuk's Ukrainian team with Russian-connected "political technologists:" Timofei Sergeitsev, Dmitry Kulikov, and Iskander Valitov.

As well as working for Yanukovych's controversial campaign in 2004, the new Russian team came from the Duma Expert Council under Konstantin Zatulin. It is headed by Sergei Markov and notorious for its attempts to set up Russia-friendly NGOs and politicians throughout the CIS. If Russia cannot control or confront Ukraine directly, it has an interest in helping to build up a "satellite ideology."

The new team pushed a version of a Russian "third way" ideology, which stretches from the nationalist right to earlier campaigns for the Union of Rightist Forces and Anatoly Chubais's infamous "liberal imperialism." It combines business-friendly policies with attacks on the bankruptcy of the West and Western liberalism, the consequent degradation of structures based on them like the EU, and the rise of an alternative pole centered around Russia in the east.

'Greater Europe'

Yatsenyuk shifted from his plague-on-both-your-houses rhetoric and so-called "New Ukrainian Pragmatism" to something more like a new Ukrainian isolationism, suddenly repositioning himself as the Sinn Féin ("Ourselves Alone") candidate and lambasting the EU and everything non-Ukrainian. His campaign slogans - "Productive Village," "A Battle-Ready Army," and "New Industrialization" - suddenly sent a different message, one that also sounded more like "feed and support Russia."



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 12:30:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For those who can read French, this Twitter thread from Anna Colin Lebedev, professor at Paris-Nanterre university & specialist of post-Soviet societies:
  • RIA is state-controlled but is not an official communication of the Russian government.
  • Nevertheless, everything published there is "acceptable by the State", even though not "official" discourse.
  • Russian prime time national TV shows are choke full of "freaks calling for murder, genocide, nuclear war. This has been the case for years. Leaving ordinary Russians unmoved." (I've seen some sample of this: armchair warriors casually discussing annexation of the Baltics, carving out Poland and nuclear bombing of Germany. Fox News looks like a Sunday church picnic in comparison)
  • Timofei Sergueitsev doesn't have any official position (free electron), but it shows "the idea of the necessary extermination of Ukrainians is growing within Russian society." It's not impossible this discourse might be adopted by the Russian leadership at some point.
  • No official policy yet, but setting the stage.
by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 08:15:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Roughly as I expected, but has there been any official denial that his article reflects state policy? Have Russian ambassadors been summoned to explain whether it reflects official policy?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 08:26:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No: this kind of discourse has been bread and butter on Russian media, only now with the volume cranked up to 11 and more attention being paid to it from Europe.

Why should there be any official denial? Officially, this is just his own opinion, largely shared by a vast number of "patriots".

Is the US ambassador summoned each time Tucker Carlson bleats out yet another deranged editorial?

by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 08:43:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, no, because Tucker supports Russia.  His little show, the White Power Hour, is quite consistent with Putinism.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 12:50:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Kramatorsk rocket strike: it wasn't us

The Kremlin has denied that Russia was involved in a missile strike on a railway station in Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine, Reuters reports.

Speaking to reporters, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the Russian armed forces had no missions scheduled for Kramatorsk on Friday.

Russia's defence ministry has also denied that Russian forces were responsible for the strike, the Russian state-owned news agency RIA reported.

The Russian state-owned organisation quoted the ministry as saying that the missile was of a type used only by the Ukrainian military, and similar to one that hit the centre of the city of Donetsk on 14 March.

The Russian government has consistently denied it has attacked civilians since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.




It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Apr 8th, 2022 at 12:18:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ukrainian servicemen stand next to a fragment of a Tochka-U missile with a writing in Russian "For our children" after Russian shelling at the railway station in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, Friday, April 8, 2022. Photograph: Andriy Andriyenko/AP

Context : the Ukrainian government has urged civilians to leave the Ukraine-controlled parts of the Donbass, to avoid being encircled and murdered by the RF army.

 The only train line is then bombed by the Russians, resulting in 4000 civilians being concentrated at the Kramatorsk railway station.

Then rockets arrive, killing at least 39.

The Russian denials, I think we have understood by now, are strictly for domestic consumption. (it's possible that there are still some among their apologists in the west who choose to believe them)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Apr 8th, 2022 at 12:34:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OTOH, Dmitry Medvedev is an official from the Russian government:

by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 08:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They want to lose to Portugal too?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 10:38:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How many tractors do Portuguese farmers have?
by IdiotSavant on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 01:32:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably enough to hold back a Russian tank division, on current form

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 09:55:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Accordning to MSN he said

`The goal is for the sake of the peace of future generations of Ukrainians themselves and the opportunity to finally build an open Eurasia - from Lisbon to Vladivostok.'

Considering that the phrase "Lisbon to Vladivostok" isn't new, and has previously refered to economic integration, I would say taht interpreting this as a threat of war or empire (as for example MSN does) is to put too much into it.

by fjallstrom on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 08:31:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Given what they are willing to do to Ukranians "for the sake of the peace of future generations of Ukrainians", I would not be so sure.
by det on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 09:04:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If this is a false flag operation it should become clear in a day or so, as the article seems to be getting a lot of attention.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 09:02:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Absolutely not ... always interesting to find the first source and how this article is propagated after weeks of censoring Russian sources. Websites have been hacked from both sides ... have a post up today about debunking fake war propaganda.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 09:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please let us know if you find any information debunking the article which is more credible than the article itself.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 05:50:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... in particular, hacking the official ria.ru site and keeping the article up for several hours would be a frankly impressive feat. Russian cyber skills are overrated perhaps?

I'm really eager to hear more about how this nasty piece of anti-Russian propaganda was planted. I'm sure you won't disappoint us.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 06:07:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know that it's standard rhetoric out of Russia, but it's not at all rhetoric that's inconsistent with the standard.

(Their cyber skills are probably quite overrated though.)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 12:57:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The murdered old guy on the bicycle in Bucha was looking at the Russians NATO-ly, so he had it coming.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 08:16:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What Russian sources are being censored?  You can watch the fucking Russian sources in real time over here.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 08:22:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Russian websites like RT are blocked in the EU. Can be circumvented by a VPN, but the block for ordinary users is very real.

Some videos on Youtube are also blocked if you don't use a VPN. I have noticed because Cat has linked some of these.

by fjallstrom on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 08:51:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, okay, fair enough.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 12:45:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Intermittently blocked here in Italy. Here is the lead article right now.
China tells US how to help Ukraine

Washington should drop its sanctions-focused approach to Russia, Beijing says

The US is profiting from its campaign to impose anti-Russian sanctions, while even its close allies are suffering, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said during a briefing on Wednesday. The drive for anti-Russian sanctions should be dropped to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, he claimed.

For some reason the computer in my living room connects with no problem most of the time, while the one in my bedroom does not.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 01:25:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps your living room and bedroom are in different Italian regions, with differing cyber policies? (Italian politics is so complicated)

RT works for me (on my client's computer, behind all sorts of sophisticated firewalling designed, in particular, to keep the Russians out).

So, according to RT, China is toeing the Russian line : this is all about the "Great Powers" (Russia, China and the US), and this is not how we do business.

Europe is merely sideswiped in a passive-aggressive mention ("the US and its allies"), even though it's the EU doing the heavy boycotting.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 02:01:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 03:51:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
gk's link

... I was just paraphrasing (or tl;dring if you prefer)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 03:53:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the point? It's on RT, so your government is probably protecting you from following it....
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 07:39:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Cat is a Yank, so she can follow it just fine.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 10:51:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Russians and Chinese -- the Russians especially -- believe that Europe is a vassal state of ours for some reason.

This is why I say: What Putin is doing here is really about us.  He thinks it's a Great Powers game, and it's not.  This is his way of trying to fight us.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 10:27:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exhibit A: Putin refusing to discuss with the EU at the beginning of the year. He only wanted Biden as an interlocutor, just like in Geneva last year.
by Bernard (bernard) on Thu Apr 7th, 2022 at 06:09:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Thu Apr 7th, 2022 at 07:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The war aims haven't changed one bit then: deny the very existence of Ukraine as a country and Ukrainians as a people (Putin wrote this last summer, so this is word of gospel), mass murder of all opponents, turn the whole country into a concentration camp / elimination camp.

This was already the stated goals at the beginning of the invasion: Blitzkrieg to Kyiv, capture the government and execute the "kill lists", install a Quisling (a Vichy regime, we'd say in French), forcibly assimilate the population into Mother Russia and eliminate all the opponents. We are so much into Godwin territory this is not even funny.

Only trouble: the genius plan didn't survive first contact with reality and failed at step #1. What makes this fella think it can still be forced upon now?

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 08:28:31 PM EST
And Russia actually means business:
by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 08:53:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Strange coincidence ... first search result of name:

Hearings Select Committee on the Katyn Forest Massacre ... as well as by track foreman Timofey Sergeyev, born in 1901, who rents a room in Kisselev's hamlet.

For many decades the Soviet version of the Katyn Forest massacre was accepted by the West.

The Truth About Katyn

Report of Special Commission for Ascertaining and Investigating the circumstances of the Shooting of Polish Officer prisoners by the German-Fascist invaders in the Katyn Forest (near Smolensk)

The Vindication of Memory: the Katyn Case in the West, Poland, and Russia, 1952-2008

The truth was admitted at last by Russia with the crash of a Tupolev plane carrying the president of Poland near Smolensk.

The Katyn Massacre History

Smolensk Air disaster

On 10 April 2010, a Tupolev Tu-154 aircraft operating Polish Air Force Flight 101 crashed near the Russian city of Smolensk, killing all 96 people on board. Among the victims were the president of Poland, Lech Kaczyński ...

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 09:33:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seems like the talk about Nazis in Ukraine is based on the view that Russia (using the USSR) model is nicely socialist. Which opens a question about whether today's Russia is even remotely socialist.

I'm not a political scientist, but I thought the general definition of socialism was the public ownership of the means of production under an authoritarian government, while fascism is the private ownership of the means of production under an authoritarian government.

By those definitions, there are hardly any communist countries around any more (maybe Cuba?) and plenty of fascist ones--including Russia as perhaps the outstanding current example.

That line of argument says that Russia accusing Ukraine of being run by Nazis is simply projection.

by asdf on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 10:52:04 PM EST
Usual case of pressing "Post" without reviewing.

  • Misplaced ")" should be "model)".
  • "general definition of communism was the public ownership..."
by asdf on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 10:54:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I always think of socialism as public ownership of the means of production -- agnostic on whether the regime is authoritarian or democratic -- and communism as the status after the "withering away" of the state.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 11:10:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I don't think Russia is remotely socialist these days.  It's really quite fascist -- private ownership but heavily directed by a hyper-nationalistic authoritarian government.

I don't think oligarchy really covers it well, because the oligarchs don't seem to exercise a whole lot of power.  It's just the Putin Show.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 4th, 2022 at 11:16:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Russia has always been brutal, authoritarian, and imperialistic.

For a while it was a brutal, communist, authoritarian, and imperialistic. After the end of the USSR it dropped the communism - which was mostly just a pretext anyway - but kept the rest.

It's essentially a medieval monarchy, with oligarchs as courtiers/barons and Putin as would-be emperor, with the difference that the excuse for military adventures is racist and homophobic psychological projection - terror of passivity, enfeeblement, and forced domination - and not religious nonsense about god being onside.

As is normal for fascism, the racism, mysticism and death worship are tinged with a miasma of nostalgia in a way that doesn't quite fit with the medieval world view.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 07:09:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't like to be essentialist, but it's true that Lenin too was brutal, authoritarian, and imperialistic.

Allow me to reformulate : Russian political leadership has always been brutal, authoritarian, and imperialistic.

"Russia" is an arbitrary piece of the surface of the earth. "Russians" are generally decent people.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 07:25:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course I'm talking about political systems. That's why I said "Russia" and not "Russians."

Ultimately Russian mafia neo-monarchy, US corporatism, UK public schools are all psychopath farms. .

The differences are in implementation - specifically how direct and face to face the violence is.

Western psychopathic systems specialise in indirectness - economic apartheid, debt abuse, covert propaganda to manufacture consent with the appearance of freedom, and distant foreign military opportunism. Direct violence is limited to specific subcultures.

Russian psychopathy is more direct and straightforward. The lies are more blatant, the gaslighting more extreme, the justifications more tenuous, the violence and repression more overt. What you see is what you get.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 08:15:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Although those few Russians I have know have all had very authoritarian mindsets...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Apr 5th, 2022 at 11:56:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A useful tl;dr

Some insight from western officials obtained by the Guardian's defence editor, Dan Sabbagh:

Western officials believe that Russia's retreat from around Kyiv and the north east of the country is now "largely complete" and that it will take "at least a week" before reconstituted units could go to Donbas and perhaps longer given how many losses they have suffered in the war so far.

The officials believe that the Kremlin wants to see some kind of victory in the eastern Donbas region in time for Russia's traditional Victory Day parade on 9 May, an important date in the country's military calendar.

One official said that Putin will want to have an "announceable success" by then, which could create "some tension" with Russian commanders as to "what they want to do in the military terms".

This means that exhausted Russian forces are likely to be thrown into battle fairly soon in an attempt to gain ground in the east.

The belief is that Russia will prioritise capturing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, or seek to create a land bridge to Crimea or both, with Russia "reshaping its narrative" so it can redefine its idea of victory.



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 04:19:10 PM EST
However the original objective was to capture Kyiv and overthrow the government. Capturing Donbass is, at best a fallback strategy and consolation prize. Depending on how well the Ukrainians are armed, gaining and holding territory there could be at least as costly as trying to capture Kyiv, although the supply chains may be somewhat shorter.  As every day passes, the momentum swings to Ukraine and becomes more difficult to reverse. Capturing and holding territory is a lot ore difficult than shelling cities from afar.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 08:26:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A few days ago RIA Novosti, a pro-Russian government state-controlled media outlet, published an article entitled What should Russia do with Ukraine? It was written by Timofey Sergeytsev, an influential commentator who has worked on the Presidential campaigns of Mikhail Prokhorov in Russia and President Yanukovych in the Ukraine.

In it he states that "the special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated - because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people".

He clarifies this by stating: "Denazification means de-Ukrainianisation. Ukrainians are an artificial anti-Russian construct. They should no longer have a national identity. Denazification of Ukraine also means its inevitable de-Europeanisation."

He argues that "Ukraine's political elite must be eliminated as it cannot be re-educated. Ordinary Ukrainians must experience all the horrors of war and absorb the experience as a historical lesson and atonement for their guilt".

He then lists the tasks which must be undertaken by Russia, including the liquidation of Ukrainian armed forces and all supporting infrastructure; the formation of an anti-Nazi (read pro-Russian) government; the installation of a Russian information space; a mass investigation programme into Ukrainian war crimes and support for the Nazi regime; forced labour, imprisonment and death sentences for all accomplices of the "Nazi regime"; and the creation of permanent de-nazification bodies.

Timofey Sergeytsev places the conflict in the context of the eradication of US subjugation and western totalitarianism and their ungrateful treatment of Russia after all that Russia has done for the west by way of providing alternatives to capitalism.

Given that President Putin has also spoken about the need to de-nazify Ukraine, and that Ukraine isn't a real country, perhaps the Government might like to summon ambassador Filatov to explain whether this represents official Russian government policy?



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 6th, 2022 at 08:34:04 PM EST
Euromaidan Press:
Moscow Patriarchate tells Russian troops: "Your task is to wipe the Ukrainian nation off the face of the earth"
:
The answer to both questions is provided by a broadside produced by the Bryansk metropolitanate of the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate that has been distributed to Russian soldiers there by the office of that church responsible for relations with the military and the police.

It tells Russian troops in the most direct way, "Your task is to wipe the Ukrainian nation off the face of the earth," a directive from church officials that many Russian soldiers will see as giving them carte blanche as far as violence against the Ukrainian people are concerned.

by IdiotSavant on Thu Apr 7th, 2022 at 05:40:50 AM EST
Holy war, no less.

That'll help.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 7th, 2022 at 11:33:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He's only following his leader.  Kirill has had a painful thunderstick for Ukraine since Bartholomew I granted the Ukrainian Orthodox Church autocephaly from the Russian, which caused Kirill to immediately sever all communion with Ecumenical Orthodoxy (Which leads me to wonder whether the Russian Church can still be called Orthodox, but that's not my fight.).  Not a huge surprise given Kirill was a KGB agent, as was his predecessor Alexy II.
by rifek on Tue Apr 12th, 2022 at 04:27:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
KGB agent... well that was part of the job description I suppose. And now he's head of the Russian Heterodox Church.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Apr 13th, 2022 at 08:59:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Useful summary from El Paìs
Lots of maps, tables...

"The first phase has been a Russian military failure of colossal proportions, a truly impressive thing. It will be the subject of study at military academies due to the accumulation of mistakes," says François Heisbourg, a special advisor for France's Foundation for Strategic Research (FFRS), the leading French center of expertise on international security and defense issues. The core cause, says Heisbourg, is an erroneous political analysis by the Kremlin that led officials to believe there would not be such a strong resistance by Ukrainians, a fact that also led to inadequate military planning.

"It's been a disaster," agrees Ruth Deyermond, a scholar at the Department of War Studies at King's College London who specializes in security in the post-Soviet space. "We are observing great losses, communication and logistical failures, signs of corruption. They are being forced to resort to mercenaries, and they are withdrawing from Kyiv. No doubt Russia is losing the war. We cannot confidently say that Ukraine is winning, but we can clearly say that Russia is losing," she says.



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Apr 8th, 2022 at 02:15:15 PM EST
Government should summon ambassador Yuri Filatov to explain Moscow's `denazification' policies

Ria Novosti, a pro-Russian government state-controlled media outlet, recently published an article entitled What should Russia do with Ukraine?

It was written by Timofey Sergeytsev, an influential commentator who has worked on the presidential campaigns of Mikhail Prokhorov in Russia and Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine.

In it he states that "the special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated - because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people".

He clarifies this by stating: "Denazification means de-Ukrainianisation. Ukrainians are an artificial anti-Russian construct.

"They should no longer have a national identity.

"Denazification of Ukraine also means its inevitable de-Europeanisation."

He argues that "Ukraine's political elite must be eliminated as it cannot be re-educated".

"Ordinary Ukrainians must experience all the horrors of war and absorb the experience as a historical lesson and atonement for their guilt," he states.

He then lists the tasks which must be undertaken by Russia, including the liquidation of Ukrainian armed forces and all supporting infrastructure; the formation of an anti-Nazi (read pro-Russian) government; the installation of a Russian information space; a mass investigation programme into Ukrainian war crimes and support for the Nazi regime; forced labour, imprisonment and death sentences for all accomplices of the "Nazi regime"; and the creation of permanent denazification bodies.

Mr Sergeytsev places the conflict in the context of the eradication of US subjugation and western totalitarianism and their ungrateful treatment of Russia after all that Russia has done for the West by way of providing alternatives to capitalism.

Given that Russian president Vladimir Putin has also spoken about the need to denazify Ukraine, and has also claimed that Ukraine is not a real country, perhaps the Government here might like to summon ambassador Yuri Filatov to explain whether this represents official Russian government policy?



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Apr 9th, 2022 at 01:35:32 PM EST
Damn. I just actually understood the syllogism driving Putin's obsession :

the special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated - because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people

Putin, before the "special military operation", spoke of the necessary denazification of Ukraine, but also of Ukrainian genocide against Russians. Apparently the logic works like this :

  • The nation of Ukraine fundamentally does not exist
  • They worship Bandera (arguably, but he was named Hero of the Nation in 2010), who was a Nazi
  • THEREFORE they are Nazis, and inherit the moral responsability for the genocide against Russians in the Great Patriotic War.

It all makes sense, finally. For a while, I was worried that Putin was clinically insane.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sat Apr 9th, 2022 at 02:12:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Polonius: Though this be madness, yet there is method in't.
Hamlet
by Bernard (bernard) on Sat Apr 9th, 2022 at 08:05:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
in political debate:

"Nazism" in current Russian political debate, performs the same function as "Communism" used to perform in US political debate.

All you had to do was successfully label someone, some group, or some country as communist, and it was open season to eliminate them by all means available.

The more unstable the state, the greater the need to define external enemies as a threat and a focus for national unity.

Only mature and secure societies can avoid "othering" some groups. Inclusion is an act of strength as well as of love.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Apr 9th, 2022 at 09:31:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which are these?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 01:26:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[thinking hard...]

Ireland? Scotland?

ummm New Zealand?

[Other candidates may be suggested by more knowledgeable people]

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 10th, 2022 at 09:55:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Belgium? Holland used to be good, Germany has tried hard to overcome its history, Portugal? Australia? Canada?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 11th, 2022 at 05:40:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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