John Mearsheimer On Who Gains The Most From The Ukraine-Russia War & What Could End Putin's Assault

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"Today there is no question: Nato is relevant, it is effective, and is more needed now than ever"

US President Joe Biden speaks at the Nato expansion meeting as Finland and Sweden formally apply for membership[_link] pic.twitter.com/run7F3LfhQ

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) May 19, 2022

Destruction of the planet one giant step closer today #usfossilfuel

How Bad Is the Ukraine War for Climate Change?

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Guerra in Ucrania le diverse posizioni della politicana Italiana

Pace, pacifismo, resistenza

Dialogo fra Luciana Castellina, Paolo Flores d'Arcais e Tomaso Montanari. Modera Cinzia Sciuto.

La guerra in Ucraina ha posto la sinistra di fronte al dilemma su cosa significhi "pace". Tutti accomunati da una unanime condanna dell'invasione di Putin, ci si divide fra chi ritiene indispensabile sostenere la resistenza ucraina con tutti i mezzi possibili, armi incluse, e chi invece ritiene che l'invio di armi non serva che a prolungare la guerra facendo in definitiva più morti. MicroMega vuole essere il luogo in cui approfondire questo confronto con amici e lettori della rivista.

Italian political parties divided on Ukraine dialogue and settlement or shipment of lethal weapons and more deaths

U.N. Peacekeeping a glass half empty, half full

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The starting group was 100% pro-Ukrainian propaganda paid for by the Dutch government. From Wikipedia ...

On 6 March, the Dutch Parliament passed a motion to advocate that the EU remove the ESTF's funding. In response, the ESTF removed the articles from their database and changed the language it uses when describing outlets that it identifies as publishing disinformation. On 9 March, Dutch Minister of the Interior, who had previously opposed closing EUvsDisinfo, said that the government would make a case for closing it in the European Union. Professor Wouter Hins from Leiden University admitted that EUvsDisinfo made a mistake, but argued that it should not be closed.

'Foreign Agents', 'Aliens' or Journalists? All Should Apply!
 Following Recent Cases in Media Law at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR)

Trust In Government Big Loser By Disinformation

Counterinsurgency Cyberwarfare NATO vs. Russia - Part 3

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The End of the European Dream | by Frank Schnittger - May 2011 |

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Make Moldova Great Again | Open Democracy - Nov. 10, 2016 |

Milling around with half an hour to kill, I stopped to take a look at the Russian-language papers at a newsstand. There was little of interest.

That was, until I came across the local edition of the tabloid daily Komsomolskaya Pravda and thought, shocking myself: "Well, I must have a copy of that".

On its cover, Donald Trump and Igor Dodon faced off against Hillary Clinton and Maia Sandu. "According to one theory," began the headline, "Moldova's head of state will be elected depending on the outcome of the US presidential elections".

"Small countries absorb the greatest contradictions of geopolitics" 

Acting Prosecutor General Dumitru Robu ordered to open criminal case against Igor Dodon over video footage, published in June 2019

Former Moldovan President Dodon Not In Custody As Police Search His Home | RFERL - 1 hr ago |

A spokeswoman for the Prosecutor-General's Office, as well as a senior member of the Socialist Party, said earlier on May 24 that Dodon, a pro-Russian politician who was president in 2016-20, had been detained during the raid for 72 hours under suspicion of corruption, illicit enrichment, accepting political funding from a criminal organization, and treason.

At a news conference, members of Dodon's Party of Socialists rejected the accusations against Dodon, which they said were part of a "two-penny show" meant to distract the public's attention from poverty and social issues. They also called for public protests.

Dodon, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he visited frequently in Moscow, was defeated in November 2020 by Maia Sandu, a US-educated politician who ran on a ticket of closer relations with the West.

Compromising material from an oligarch on the run | Tass |

A few days later, TV channels run by Plahotniuc showed the video footage, made in the Democratic Party's office, accusing Dodon of treason. However, a short while afterwards the oligarch lost power and fled the country to Miami.

A coalition of the Party of Socialists and the ACUM alliance came to power, and Maia Sandu, one of the alliance's leaders, became prime minister. Prosecutors investigated the video, but found "no elements of crime" in it, and a court in Chisinau rejected the case.

Last week, the Appeals Chamber reversed the court's decision.

The Republic of Moldova faced an unprecedented political and constitutional crisis after the Constitutional Court decided to dissolve the parliament, without, as the Venice Commission noted, fulfilling the conditions required | June 21, 2019 |

Additional reading ...

Monitoring the Selectivity of Criminal Justice In Moldova

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Ireland is ranked 97 of 142 out of the countries considered for the annual GFP review. It holds a PwrIndx* score of 2.3147 just ahead of Mali and Cambodia. Same level as Ghana, Armenia, Bahrain. Why complain?

Compare Aerial, Naval and Ground Assets of Major World Powers and View Force Index of Countries Ranked by Military Strength.

Russia ranks 11th by economic strength - mainly fossil fuels and mining precious metals.

Top 15 Countries by GDP in 2022

No, I do not fear the red wave across Europe ...

Europe's dependence on the United States for its security means that the United States possesses a de facto veto on the direction of European defense. Since the 1990s, the United States has typically used its effective veto power to block the defense ambitions of the European Union. This has frequently resulted in an absurd situation where Washington loudly insists that Europe do more on defense but then strongly objects when Europe's political union--the European Union--tries to answer the call. This policy approach has been a grand strategic error--one that has weakened NATO militarily, strained the trans-Atlantic alliance, and contributed to the relative decline in Europe's global clout. As a result, one of America's closest partners and allies of first resort is not nearly as powerful as it could be.

By Robert H. Wade @LSE

Why the US and Nato have long wanted Russia to attack Ukraine | March 30th, 2022 |

On 26 March, President Biden, speaking in Warsaw, said, unscripted: "For God's sake, this man [Putin] cannot remain in power." Such an overt statement of intention for regime change in Russia has not gone down well in most of Europe. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken later clarified Biden's Warsaw remark: "As you know, and as you have heard us say repeatedly, we do not have a strategy of regime change in Russia, or anywhere else, for that matter". Blinken has apparently forgotten Vietnam, Chile, Iraq, Afghanistan, and quite a few more.

Consider the following quotes. On 24 February, during a White House press conference on the first day of Russia's invasion, Biden said sanctions are designed not to prevent invasion but to punish Russia after invading "...so the people of Russia know what he has brought on them. That is what this is all about."

On 27 February, James Heappey, UK Minister for the Armed Forces, wrote in the Daily Telegraph: "His failure must be complete; Ukrainian sovereignty must be restored, and the Russian people empowered to see how little he cares for them. In showing them that, Putin's days as President will surely be numbered... He'll lose power and he won't get to choose his successor." Finally, on 1 March, Boris Johnson's spokesperson said the sanctions on Russia "we are introducing, that large parts of the world are introducing, are to bring down the Putin regime."

These statements reflect long-standing US strategy for regime change in Moscow, with Ukraine as the pivot. On one hand, send sufficient military and other equipment to Ukraine to sink the Russian military in a quagmire. On the other hand, impose severe, far-reaching sanctions on Russia so as to cause major disruption to the Russian elite and a major contraction of living conditions for the Russian middle-class. The combination should last long enough for Russians to rise up to overthrow Putin and install a Yeltsin-like President more sympathetic to the West.

But this weapons-plus-sanctions strategy needed a cause. Putin's invasion was the required casus belli. It in no way excuses Russia's invasion and its despicable tactics to say that the Kremlin fell into a US and Nato trap.

The overarching mission of the ACA is to support the War Crimes Units of the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine (OPG) in its investigation and prosecution of conflict-related crimes. The ACA seeks to streamline coordination and communication efforts to ensure best practices, avoid duplication of efforts, and encourage the expeditious deployment of financial resources and skilled personnel to respond to the needs of the OPG as the legally constituted authority in Ukraine responsible for dealing with the prosecution of war crimes on its own territory.

EU High Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell said:  ...
US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said: ...
UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: ...
General Prosecutor of Ukraine, Iryna Venediktova said: ...

Operational support

The ACA will bring together multinational experts to provide strategic advice and operational assistance to OPG specialists and other stakeholders in areas such as collection and preservation of evidence, operational analysis, investigation of conflict-related sexual violence, crime scene and forensic investigations, drafting of indictments, and co-operation with international and national accountability mechanisms. This engagement with the OPG and other justice, law enforcement and security agencies of Ukraine has been and will continue to be driven by the needs of the Ukrainian government and the parameters of its support will be developed in close consultation with the OPG.  To this end, it will closely associate its activities with the ongoing operational work taking place in cooperation with EU Member States, partner third countries and the International Criminal Court, including the Joint Investigation Team coordinated by Eurojust. ...

"Don't want to beg for NATO membership", says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky | WION - Mar 9, 2022 |

All key allies spurned Zelensky on not to compromise but continue for a military victory over Russia.

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New on MoA:
Ukraine Propaganda -
BBC Tries To Sell Telegram Rumors That Make No Sense [_link] pic.twitter.com/b2ODjtfKTv

— Moon of Alabama (@MoonofA) May 25, 2022

NEW SESSION Meet @kabira_tweeting
of the cross-border project "Hunger Profiteers" and learn more about who pulls the strings behind skyrocketing food prices! #dataharvest #EIJC22 [_link]

— Dataharvest - EIJC (@DataharvestEIJC) May 21, 2022

Honger profiteurs in de spotlight: Speculanten profiteren van de stijgende prijzen & verergeren de voedselcrisis. Dat blijkt uit onderzoek van @LHreports. Vanavond #HungerProfiteers bij @EenVandaag: [_link]

— Ludo (@LudoHekman) May 28, 2022

After the Russian invasion, at least 4.5 billion new money poured into funds specializing in grain. At Paris milling wheat (benchmark for European grain market), speculators now dominate wheat futures: they held 23% of futures in May 2018, 72% in April this year

What is Lighthouse Reports

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American farmers have capacity to provide substantial amount of world's grain needs. US Govt pays farmers not to produce. Worse, #JoeBiden announced increased diversion of grain to #ethanol

It is better to extract fuels from ground so that land can be used to produce food

— Jon Jaroker (@jonjaroker) May 14, 2022

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's block on NATO membership for Sweden and Finland is likely to be managed, but has renewed questions about whether the alliance might be better off without Turkey. [_link]

— The New York Times (@nytimes) May 30, 2022

Russia is being made a pariah state - just like it and the Soviet Union were for most of the last 105 years

Concern grew among the Western countries about potential military confrontation with the Soviet Union. That led in 1949 to the formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, as part of the move to contain the Soviet Union militarily.
Following NATO's creation, in 1950 the U.S. State Department proposed a new policy - a top-secret report referred to as "NSC-68" - that emphasized the use of military force over diplomacy in dealing with Soviet power.

The authors of NSC-68 rejected a renewal of U.S. isolationism, fearing that this would lead to the Soviet domination of Eurasia, and leave the United States marooned on the Western Hemisphere, cut off from the allies and resources it needed to fend off further Soviet encroachments. The report also ruled out a preventive strike against the Soviet Union, because its authors reckoned that such action would not destroy the Soviet military's offensive capacities, and would instead invite retaliatory strikes that would devastate Western Europe. Moreover, U.S. experts did not believe that American public opinion would support measures that might lead to a protracted war. NSC-68 did not rule out the prospect of negotiating with the Soviet Union when it suited the objectives of the United States and its allies; however, the report's authors argued that such an approach would only succeed if the United States could create "political and economic conditions in the free world" sufficient to deter the Soviet Union from pursuing a military solution to the Cold War rivalry.

As the State Department Historian writes:

"Its authors argued that one of the most pressing threats confronting the United States was the `hostile design' of the Soviet Union. The authors concluded that the Soviet threat would soon be greatly augmented by the addition of more weapons, including nuclear weapons, to the Soviet arsenal. They argued that the best course of action was to respond in kind with a massive build-up of the U.S. military and its weaponry."

More aggressive than Kennan's ideas of containment, this policy called for a massive buildup of U.S. conventional and nuclear arsenals. Soviet ambition would thus be restricted because its leaders would not likely seek a hot war with the West.

President Harry Truman signed off on NSC-68 in September 1950. It remained U.S. policy until the end of the Cold War in 1991.

The containment policy 2.0 was reinstated in 2001 after the 9/11 attacks and Afghan campaign. Ten years of cuts in military spending was now used to rebuild a strong NATO alliance with a new goal: George Bush and Dick Cheney's War on Terror, the threats of Islam and a war of civilization. White supremacy threatened. Europe is now paying an economic price for their military alliance with a super power on a rampage. On Dutch television and radio a daily deluge of warmongering with interviews of war hawks and Russophobes. Yesterday a report from Lithuania and Crowd Funding of Turkish drones and other lethal weapons ... beyond insane. Let's crowd fund a assassin to blow-up the Kremlin.

Making Russia a pariah state became an outspoken policy inside NATO and U.S. State Department from the Bucharest Summit of April 2008 on forward.

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Independent American journalist reporting from the frontlines and key city in Donbas.

In a rare interview from the frontlines of the Russian invasion, we speak with American journalist Billy Nessen in the Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk. It is the easternmost city still held by Ukrainian forces after almost three months of war. He says Russian troops have devastated the city with heavy shelling. The interview with Nessen was interrupted when a shell landed in the building next door. Nessen speaks about the Ukrainian resistance, the Azov Battalion and more, including the U.S. and NATO's role in the conflict, especially as the U.S. Senate is expected to approve an additional $40 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine. "Obviously the West is determined that Ukraine has to win this war," says Nessen.

US shipping the systems .... any other country will ship the long range munitions ...Biden keeps clean hands ... innocent blood cannot be washed off Joe.

Biden rules out sending rocket systems 'that can strike into Russia' to Ukraine | France24 AFP |

US President Joe Biden said Monday he would not send rocket systems to Ukraine that could hit targets well inside Russian territory, despite urgent requests from Kyiv for long-range weapons.

Kyiv has asked the United States for mobile batteries of long-range rockets, the M270 MLRS and the M142 Himars, which can launch multiple rockets at the same time with a range of up to 187 miles (300 kilometers), eight times or more the distance of artillery in the field.

This could give Ukrainian forces the ability to reach, with great precision, targets far behind Russian lines, though it is unclear if that is their intent.

The MLRS "is really the weapon that we badly need," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said last week at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss Alps, where he pressed Western allies for heavy weapons.

"If Russia does not lose the war with Ukraine, the Third World War will begin on the continent."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's advisor Mykhailo Podoliak echoed the call in a recent tweet, saying, "It is hard to fight when you are attacked from a 70 km (43 miles) distance and have nothing to fight back with."

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said that the Biden administration's "decision not to send these weapons is a betrayal of Ukraine and democracy itself."

Lindsey Graham a well known warmonger and a bit more extreme rightwing than Joe Biden himself. Small steps ...

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The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy

On 1 June 2018 the ECB celebrated its 20th anniversary. This paper provides a comprehensive view of the ECB's monetary policy over these two decades.

One of the main themes of the paper is how ECB monetary policy responded to the challenges posed by the European twin crises and the subsequent slow economic recovery, making use of its relatively wide range of instruments, defining new ones where necessary and developing the strategic underpinnings of its policy framework.

This paper reviews the European Central Bank's monetary policy during its first twenty years of existence. Overall, the ECB has delivered on its price stability mandate despite the very challenging crisis times of the last decade. Average inflation over this period has been 1.7 percent, which is in line with the ECB's aim of maintaining inflation below but close to 2 percent over the medium term. However, this average number masks quite stable inflation around 2 percent before the outbreak of the financial and sovereign debt crisis and a much more volatile and on average lower inflation rate around 1.5 percent thereafter. Throughout the whole twenty years, average five-year ahead inflation expectations, as captured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters, have remained stable within a narrow range between 1.8 and 2.0 percent, underlining the ECB's credibility.

Good round up of the changing tone of Western media reporting. Should be read alongside the NYT editorial board piece indicating American elites need to reduce their expectations about "winning" against Russia [_link] [_link]

— scrutable (@jon23399797) May 30, 2022

"Reliable journalism is more vital for the wellbeing of our society today than ever before, especially as the COVID-19 pandemic and the pandemic of misinformation it sparked, are still raging." -- writes Hamid Dabashi, for #AJOpinion [_link]

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) February 23, 2021

From my diary ...

UK Disinformation and Propaganda The Consortium

The leaked materials show the Thomson Reuters Foundation and BBC Media Action participating in a covert information warfare campaign aimed at countering Russia. Working through a shadowy department within the UK FCO known as the Counter Disinformation & Media Development (CDMD), the media organizations operated alongside a collection of intelligence contractors in a secret entity known simply as "the Consortium."

Through training programs of Russian journalists overseen by Reuters, the British Foreign Office sought to produce an "attitudinal change in the participants," promoting a "positive impact" on their "perception of the UK."

The Lithuanian Government is reportedly planning to request that Allied Nations including the United States, Britain, France, and Turkey launch a Naval Operation to retake Ukrainian Coastal Ports in the Black Sea, this will allow International Food Export to continue unimpeded. pic.twitter.com/OB35MYkMSp

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 23, 2022

"You can take the grain out by truck or train, or you can take it out by sea. Right now, #BlackSea lanes are blocked by #Mines & the #RussianNavy. In order to open up those sea lanes would require a very significant military effort" - #USA Gen Milley said [_link]

— 💤Dr_Shahid💤 (@Dr_ShahidPk) May 31, 2022

Turkey cancels NATO drills in Black Sea on basis of Montreux Convention, says top diplomat. Mevlut Cavusoglu also recalled that Ankara "said from the very beginning that it would only join the UN sanctions" if they were officially imposed on Russia:[_link] pic.twitter.com/c0XyOxwZW1

— TASS (@tassagency_en) May 31, 2022

The presidential call could restart stalled peace talks in Ukraine and accelerate much-needed grain exports with Türkiye's coordination [_link]

— TRT World (@trtworld) May 31, 2022

Today, we present our pathway to stronger Dutch armed forces. The Netherlands will spend an additional € 5 billion on defence on a structural basis. This means:
✓ a 40% increase in defence spending
✓ 🇳🇱 will meet the NATO standard of 2% of GDP in 2024 and 2025.
1/3 pic.twitter.com/tbxYow5w5K

— Kajsa Ollongren (@DefensieMin) June 1, 2022

Let's keep Ukraine in fighting spirit ... more war, buy weapons systems now available in US warehouses. Thank you Joe.

Across all political parties UNITY ... we need to be ready for the Red Army crossing into Europe!

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This is pretty stunning.

FBI Altered Statement on Intrusion Into Democrat Network Based on Input From Democrat Lawyer [_link]

— Undead FOIA (@UndeadFoia) June 2, 2022

Ukraine Tried to Tip the Election in Clinton's Favor | EU Observer Opinion - Jan 12, 2017 |

Evidence reveals that Ukraine intervened to tilt the election in favor of its national interests.

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Some participants from The Netherlands ...

Beurden, Ben van (NLD), CEO, Shell plc
Halberstadt, Victor (NLD), Co-Chair Bilderberg Meetings; Professor of Economics, Leiden University
Hamers, Ralph (NLD), CEO, UBS Group AG
Hoekstra, Wopke (NLD), Minister of Foreign Affairs
Huët, Jean Marc (NLD), Chairman, Heineken NV
Willem Alexander, H.M. the King of the (NLD)
Rutte, Mark (NLD), Prime Minister
Wennink, Peter (NLD), President and CEO, ASML Holding NV

Willem Alexander is the grandson of Bilderberg founder and fomer chair Prins Bernhard von Lippe Biesterfeld

Nearly lost the House of Orange through the Lockheed bribery (commission) affair.

Declassified correspondences between Kingdon Gould Jr and Henry Kissinger showed that Kissinger was informed of the bribes in 1975.

State Department cable shows exposure of Lockheed bribes threatened NATO's stability

TOP SECRET cable in the Kissinger archives shows alarm over Church Committee revelations that could have led to Netherlands withdrawing from NATO - or even restructuring their government

A State Department cable in the Central Intelligence Agency's Kissinger archive claims that pending revelations from the Church Committee would rock the Netherlands, potentially forcing it to leave NATO. Even more drastically, the memo warned that this scandal could lead to "the restructuring of the Dutch political system."

Germany loses over one hundred Air Force pilots in Lockheed's F-104 Starfighter

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#Ukraine says it opposes any visit by the head of the #UN's nuclear watchdog to its nuclear plant at #Zaporizhzhia while it is under Russian occupation.[_link]

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) June 7, 2022

Zelensky demands removing the mines won't be used by Russian naval forces to advance on Southern Front.

Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder ... a fu*king warmonger gets media space to spout his hate for Russia on Politico ...

The block on shipping can't be broken with missiles alone, but a naval escort could provide the answer | Politico |

So far, diplomacy at the U.N. has made no progress. Russia blames Western sanctions for the global food crisis and Ukraine for blocking shipping by mining its ports. Its proposal to allow grain shipments in return for lifting all sanctions isn't serious. Meanwhile, time is running short, as a new grain harvest will have no place to be stored. 

....
This would strictly be a humanitarian mission, aimed solely at ensuring safe passage for grain-filled cargo ships from Ukraine, out through the Black Sea. Navy ships from a coalition, preferably including grain-importing countries like Egypt, would escort the freighters, and minesweepers could clear a safe path for the ships. 

Though straightforward in theory, such a naval escort mission would need to overcome two obstacles: Russia and Turkey. 

Russia would have to cooperate, either explicitly or tacitly. If explicit, Moscow would agree to allow the shipments, perhaps after international inspectors verified that only food exports were leaving Ukraine and no weapons were being shipped back. 

A naval escort also carries risks of confrontation, though much less so than policing the vast skies of Ukraine. And given the colossal humanitarian need, the risks are worth taking.

Russia Is Connected to Western Europe

So Daalder, finding it difficult to get out of the mess you helped create by design ... making Russia a pariah state. May you forever be doomed.

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