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N. Ireland Protocol receives democratic mandate

by Frank Schnittger Mon May 9th, 2022 at 12:03:50 PM EST


DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson and his party are ignoring the democratic mandate of voters in the North.

The Irish independent has published my letter pointing out that the Protocol now has a democratic mandate in N. Ireland. Democracy needs to precede tribal bias against protocol

[Update] The Irish Times has now published the letter as well - and their sub-editor didn't mess with the text, so it reads better. (Fourth letter down).


Irish Times version.

A chara, – Much has been made of the fact that nationalist and unionist parties each achieved 40 per cent of the vote and 35 seats in the Assembly elections, with the Alliance, Greens, Independents, and People Before Profit achieving the remaining 20 per cent of the vote and 20 seats.

Of possibly more immediate significance, pro-protocol parties achieved 56.1 per cent of the vote, almost double the total for the explicitly anti-protocol DUP and TUV of 28.9 per cent.

I have excluded the UUP from both totals as they refused to attend anti-protocol rallies and are in favour of practical reforms to the protocol to reduce trade frictions – a position common to all pro-protocol parties. Interestingly, the 56 per cent pro-protocol vote is exactly the same as the Remain vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum

Anti-protocol parties have insisted that it lacks cross-community consent, but exactly the same applies to Brexit, which they pursued regardless, and of which the protocol is part. And if Brexit must be accepted as a UK-wide decision, then so too must the protocol.

Furthermore, it appears the DUP only require cross-community consent when it is they who want to block something. When a large majority of the people of Northern Ireland opposed Brexit, the DUP ignored them.

Pro-protocol parties will have a two to one, 53 to 26 majority in the Assembly, which is due to vote on the protocol in 2024, and every five years thereafter. Why don’t the anti-protocol parties accept the democratic verdict of the electorate and of any Assembly votes in the future? Or is this a tribal rather than democratic issue? – Is mise,

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What will it take to change the system where the obstructionist DUP can bring the government to a grinding halt? Or not even allow it to start.
by asdf on Tue May 10th, 2022 at 12:10:35 AM EST
It will take a change of government in the UK (because Boris's crew won't change a thing, it's such a handy alibi for annoying the EU)

Then a change in the Good Friday agreement, which defines the current power-sharing arrangement (which are sort of Lebanon Lite, and we know where that leads, but were a necessary transitional move). Which would require the agreement of the Irish Republic, perhaps of other partners?

So it's not changing between now and Christmas...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue May 10th, 2022 at 12:00:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Irish Times has now published the letter as well - and their sub-editor didn't mess with the text, so it reads better. (Fourth letter down).

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 10th, 2022 at 06:07:44 PM EST
The strange thing is that unionists (and the Tory government) keep claiming that the Protocol doesn't have cross community consent and is thus in breach of the Good Friday Agreement.

Leaving aside the fact that the DUP opposed the GFA for most of its existence, the strange thing is that the GFA is quite clear that constitutional issues like a United Ireland will be decided by a 50%+1 majority and don't require majority unionist support.

Now for you and me, the Protocol is about the minutiae of post Brexit trading arrangements for specified goods as they relate to N. Ireland and the Single Market and as codified in the Withdrawal Agreement. But unionists have also been claiming that the Protocol changes the Constitutional status of N. Ireland and as such, should require Unionist consent.

The beauty of having an unwritten constitution is you can have continual arguments about what is constitutional, and what is not. But if the Protocol truly does change N. Ireland's constitutional position as unionists claim, then it should be subject to 50%+1 majority decision, not cross-community consent.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 10th, 2022 at 06:36:02 PM EST

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon May 16th, 2022 at 08:07:46 AM EST
DUPes have yet to figure out Tories need the Protocol to remain in place so they can blame everything on it.
by rifek on Mon May 16th, 2022 at 07:48:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard (bernard) on Mon May 16th, 2022 at 08:54:38 PM EST
Fintan O'Toole finally gets the message about what is really at stake over the protocol conflict: Truss's latest take on NI protocol reveals what is really going on.

Basically his take on Truss' recent speech is that she wants to use N. Ireland as a back door for southern hemisphere food conglomerates into the Single market. She is trying to negotiate trade deals with them and has few carrots to offer, so she is offering back door access  to the Single Market in return for "Global Britain's" access to their markets.

Surprisingly, the Commission is not enamoured with the idea... Neither should N. Ireland farmers be too keen on the idea if they weren't so blinded by their need to maintain their "British" identity. This was never about N. Ireland or its best interests. The UK government can't afford N. Ireland to succeed while the rest of the UK fails for lack of access to markets. That might show up the fallacy of Brexit.

But as usual, the UK government can rely on the DUP to act as useful idiots.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 17th, 2022 at 04:09:27 PM EST
Frustratingly, the Irish Times seems to have switched to a "zero free articles" policy.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed May 18th, 2022 at 06:08:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't know that. I have a policy of publishing relevant excerpts or giving a summary of the gist of an article rather than just plastering links about the place, so I hope that helps.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 18th, 2022 at 08:07:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's huge, if it's true, so if you have anything concrete to back up O'Toole's hypothesis, I'm interested...
I suppose it's beef from Australia and milk products from New Zealand he's talking about, but it's so outrageous that it would never get off the ground (and might lead to the formation of a EU navy, in order to establish the necessary physical blocade, which would seem to be the obvious tactical negotiating response)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed May 18th, 2022 at 08:13:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the major benefits of Brexit, and reason for leaving the SM and CU, was to be rid of the EU expensive food policy and able to import freely from much cheaper third world and antipodean producers. British agriculture will be destroyed, but is only a very small % of GDP and essentially doesn't matter to Tories who prefer to use the countryside for hunting shooting and horse riding. It is relatively much more important to the NI economy and dominated bu unionist landowners who don't seem to have gotten that message even though the Tories only promised to maintain CAP level subsidies for the lifetime of this parliament. I expect a sea change in their attitudes when those subsidies reduce or stop and they are competing against CAP subsidised southern Irish farmers who will retain access to the UK market.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 18th, 2022 at 08:23:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I just reread Article 16, and it definitely doesn't say what the Brexiteers keep saying it does.  First, it can be invoked only if "application of this Protocol leads to serious economic, societal, or environmental difficulties...."  The only difficulties the UK is facing have been caused either by its refusal to apply the Protocol or by Brexit itself, not by actual application of the Protocol.  Second, any remedial actions are limited to what is strictly necessary to remedy the difficulties.  Third, any proposed remedies first have to be referred to the Joint Committee pursuant to Annex 7.  TL;DR: If the UK unilaterally pulls the plug on the Protocol, it will be in violation of international law, and the EU would be within its rights to drop the hammer.
by rifek on Tue May 17th, 2022 at 07:03:24 PM EST
That is why the UK government has moved away fro threatening to invoke A.16 and towards directly overturning protocol provisions in domestic UK law in direct breach of their Treaty obligations. Boris says the EU won't retaliate. We shall see. I can't see how they can't respond very robustly.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 18th, 2022 at 08:26:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As usual de Piffle can't read a room beyond its shallowest aspects.  The EU isn't all he'd have to worry about.  The Irish diaspora population here is huge and includes the guy in the White House (Hells, I'm 1/4 myself.).  A substantial percentage of that population views the GFA as nothing short of a divine miracle.  If the UK does anything to torpedo the GFA, it will find out in a New York minute just how fast people here can get their Irish up.  And we're in an election year.
by rifek on Wed May 18th, 2022 at 06:45:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A Chara, - The Boris Johnson government has once again signalled its intention to break international law and its treaty obligations to the EU by introducing domestic legislation to over-ride parts of the protocol and to annul the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice over protocol related matters. This is in addition to its current unilateral and illegal extension of grace periods on protocol implementation and its failure to honour agreements on data sharing and building facilities for goods inspections.

Boris Johnson has stated that he doesn't think the EU will retaliate in any way. He could be forgiven for forming this conviction in that the EU paused legal actions to redress current UK flouting of the protocol and has continued to talk meekly about addressing any issues which might arise out of the implementation of the protocol. He also has the chutzpah to claim that the Protocol lacks support in the Northern Ireland despite 56% of the electorate voting for pro-protocol parties with the main anti-protocol party, the DUP, reduced to 21% of the vote. He has continued to side openly with the DUP despite the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement requiring the UK government to act impartially and give equality of esteem to both political traditions in the north.

Fintan O'Toole (Truss's latest take on NI protocol reveals what is really going on, 17th. May) argues that the UK government's real intention is negotiate Free Trade Agreements with southern hemisphere countries which promise them back door access to the Single Market through N. Ireland in return for free UK access to their markets. One of the main benefits of Brexit was always supposed to be the scrapping of Common Agricultural Policy subsidies on agricultural produce and their replacement by cheaper food sourced on world markets. The fact that this would fatally undermine British agriculture is of little concern to Conservatives because of its small contribution to British GDP, but N. Ireland agriculture is a much more important component of northern GDP.  How will Northern Ireland farmers fare when faced with cheaper imports from abroad and from CAP subsidised Irish farmers?

The EU is an alliance of states based on the adherence to treaties and the rule of law. The maintenance of EU food quality and security standards has always been an important component of its commitment to European farmers, consumers, and the general economy. If the EU will not now act to protect its laws, security and economies then what is the point of the EU? If the EU wants to be taken by Boris Johnson et al, it will have to act decisively in defence of its legitimate interests. The time for talking softly is over. It is time for the EU to wield the big stick of trade sanctions until Boris Johnson realises that breaking the Withdrawal Agreement and the Belfast Good Friday Agreement carries a huge cost for the UK as a whole.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 18th, 2022 at 10:17:59 AM EST
Why is this such a big deal? Didn't Brexit only affect a few farmers with turnips in the back of their trucks?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed May 18th, 2022 at 08:03:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Wed May 18th, 2022 at 07:13:42 PM EST
It will. Perhaps next century; perhaps in the second half of the current one.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu May 19th, 2022 at 01:15:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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