Last Ditch Effort to Prevent War in Europe

by Oui Thu Jun 30th, 2022 at 08:58:46 PM EST

Amazing leak: France 2 made a documentary from the transcripts of conversations between @EmmanuelMacron and Putin before the invasion. Macron assured his counterpart that Biden was ready to "clarify the issue of Ukraine and @NATO" in a meeting with Putin[_link]
— Bojan Pancevski (@bopanc) June 25, 2022

Not by US president Biden, nor by Antony Blinken ... not by key warmongers UK PM Boris Johnson with cabinet members Ben Wallace or new FM Liz Truss ... the new German administration was far from capable to tackle this global crisis ... EU President Emmanuelle Macron stood alone ... not even backing from EU Foreign Affairs minister Josep Borrell - very weak performance, anti-Russia bias - and VDL with previous task as Defense minister too gave no backing in this effort to meet the decades long request by Russia to make a security deal for all of Europe.

Biden, Johnson, Stoltenberg vetoed any commitment for a diplomatic compromise ... even a begin of negotiations ... the Donbas stand-off already ensured 8 years and the Minsk agreements were torpedoed by both Kyiv and Washington. Zelensky had no leverage to make any decision not in line with Warsaw, London, NATO HQ and Washington. Already #zelensky was a dead man walking ... on intensive care with oxygen moderated by his "allies".

Kremlin

News conference by Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron following Russian-French talks [_link] pic.twitter.com/NLLK5pi4d9
— President of Russia (@KremlinRussia_E) February 8, 2022

News conference following Russian-French talks

Moscow, 8th February 2022
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mr President, ladies and gentlemen, It is a pleasure to welcome you to the Kremlin and to host the President of the French Republic, Mr Emmanuel Macron in Russia.
It appears symbolic that our meeting is taking place on February 7 (it looks like it will end on February 8, Moscow time), the day when a fundamental treaty between Russia and France was signed 30 years ago. That vital document provided a reliable foundation for the development of bilateral cooperation based on partnership and mutual respect for decades to come.

The 26-point agreement, signed by Presidents Boris Yeltsin of Russia and Francois Mitterrand of France, commits their governments to consult during times of crisis and to avoid any future division of Europe by building "a network of peace and solidarity" through new security arrangements on the continent.
"We are no longer enemies, or even potential adversaries," Yeltsin declared at a press conference following the signing ceremony. "We want to become allies."

Our talks with President Macron today were held in a business-like atmosphere and were substantive and meaningful.
[Continued in a separate diary for full Kremlin press briefing]

US Intelligence: Attack 'Imminent' Postponed To Next Week | Fri. Feb. 11th, 2022 |

Ushakov added, Putin said the West had ignored main Russia's security concerns, saying the US and its allies had been "pumping up" Ukraine with new weaponry and encouraging provocations by Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region and in Crimea.
Biden warns Putin US will ‘impose severe costs’ on Russia if it invades Ukraine
US President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call Saturday that the United States "will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia" should it invade Ukraine.

Macron Urges EU Dialogue with Russia | Jan. 20, 2022 |

Speaking to EU lawmakers, French President Macron said the bloc must engage in dialogue with Russia about Ukraine, for better security of the continent. pic.twitter.com/xp6EAmowfi
— DW News (@dwnews) January 20, 2022

Watching tonight ...

Europe L'aventure Française -- France2 documentary Macron in Moscow call with Putin

Macron riles Russia with documentary releasing content of Putin calls | Le Monde |
Unashamed to create scenes on the international stage, French President Emmanuel Macron sometimes takes liberties with the levels of secrecy that are usually enforced in diplomatic affairs. Even if it means causing a few incidents.
Russian state news agency Ria Novosti, a conduit for Russian President Vladimir Putin, recently alluded to the France 2 broadcast of A President, Europe and the War. In this documentary filmed in the heart of the Elysée Palace and scheduled to air on Thursday, June 30, director Guy Lagache was allowed to record the entire conversation between the French president and his Russian counterpart. With excerpts from this call having been published in the last few days across various media, the Russian agency took offense and stated on Twitter that "for a long time the French have not respected the diplomatic rules of negotiations."
The filmed exchange took place on February 20, four days before the war. Mr. Lagache followed the almost two-hour-long interview from the office of the head of the diplomatic cell of the Élysée, Emmanuel Bonne. He recorded as Mr. Macron tried to push Mr. Putin to an agreement "in principle" to meet with Joe Biden in Geneva.
The film includes nine riveting minutes in which the Russian president explained that the Ukrainian government "is not democratically elected" but the result of a "bloody coup d'état" during which "people were burned alive," and for which Volodymyr Zelensky "is one of those responsible." Mr. Putin said it was "always a lot of pleasure" to speak with Mr. Macron, including from his gym, and made some promises.
(Near the end of the call I understood both presidents would leave it to their advisors for a communique and further talks - Putin was now heading to or watch an ice hockey match -- desinteresse drips from this comment ... time has elapsed and Macron had a solitary proposition without any backing ... on personal recognition he came empty-handed ... the fool ... in a call with Boris Johnson, he got a negative reply negotiations won't get you anywhere ... the UK never, never tried and showed vile adversity to any opening towards the Kremlin. Macron never had a chance two minutes before twelve of a war waiting to happen.)
Behind the scenes, Mr. Bonne warned Mr. Lagache that the Russian president "always lies."
In fact, the meeting between the Russian and American presidents never took place.

Late call Macron with Boris Johnson on February 20

Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to French President Macron tonight about the situation in Ukraine | 20 February, 2022 |
The Prime Minister spoke to French President Macron tonight about the situation in Ukraine.
They updated one another on their respective diplomatic efforts, including President Macron's call with President Putin today.
The Prime Minister noted that President Putin's commitments to President Macron were a welcome sign that he might still be willing to engage in finding a diplomatic solution. The Prime Minister stressed that Ukraine's voice must be central in any discussions.
The leaders agreed on the need for both Russia and Ukraine to meet their commitments under the Minsk Agreements in full. They also underscored the need for President Putin to step back from his current threats and withdraw troops from Ukraine's border.

Nonsense how the media reported the failed telephone call ... the Pentagon and NSA espionage new what was about to happen.

Macron paves way for potential Putin-Biden summit on Ukraine crisis | The Guardian |

Zelensky reacted after the attack on Ukraine 🇺🇦 started ... suggested to get together with allies and Biden to STOP THE WAR, I am sure Putin 🇷🇺 will listen 😡 .. Macron asked Zelensky if he was willing to negotiate ... he replied in the affirmative ⁉️

Why in hell 🔥 did this war start ... no one stepped up to negotiate ... too many hardliners with an anti-Russia agenda ... Europe, UK and especially Biden failed miserably, just as I suspected.

As it happened: Macron pushes for diplomacy, US warns Russian invasion of Ukraine imminent | France24 - Feb. 20, 2022 16:14pm |

Satellite images show new Russian troop build-up

[Update: 02:08am Paris time]

Satellite images show new deployments of Russian troops and military equipment near the Ukrainian border, a US company said Sunday evening.
The pictures show "multiple new field deployments of armoured equipment and troops" departing from existing military sites into forests and fields approximately 9 to 19 miles from Russia's border with Ukraine, US satellite imagery company Maxar said in an email.

Closing ranks to fight a war, there was no appetite to prevent this war.

No surprise France Elysee releases this documentary now as the united NATO military effort is failing on all sides. Winning the PR battle but losing on the military battlefield.

Zelensky will travel to Poland and wait for the instructions from president Joe Biden. ‼️

Analysis by military watchers from rightwing warmongers who were optimistic about a Russian defeat ...

[_link%]
— Dutch Judas (@Judas3rd) June 29, 2022

Victory in Ukraine could mean a stalemate
An excellent article from @joshuachuminski for @thehill on quite what 'victory' really means and why we need a hard conversation about it, something I'll also be tackling for @thesundaytimes https://t.co/WnvDSe4SzG
— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) June 29, 2022

Patient and Confident, Putin Shifts Out of Wartime Crisis Mode | NY Times |

Great insight behind the scenes ... valuable.

Related diaries …

Antagonizing Europe's Best Partner to Deliver Gas | Feb. 5, 2022 |

Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned against Europe's No.1 economy becoming a "pawn" in Russia's game. Natural gas stockpiles across the EU are at their lowest in years as tensions over Ukraine intensify. False representation of facts in behest of Biden's war on the European consumer for American interests only.

Whiff of Munich in the Air | Feb, 13, 2022 |

Damn irresponsible fools at the controls of war and devastation ... freedom of Europe at stake. Do not expect any rational leadership out of Washington DC. Mainland Europe should take a long lead what has happened to American democracy after the 9/11 attacks.
Where are the mass protests?
UK minister likens Russia-Ukraine to WWII appeasement: ’Whiff of Munich in the air’ | Feb. 13, 2022 |
British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has compared Western diplomatic efforts to head off a Russian invasion of Ukraine to the appeasement of Nazi Germany ahead of World War II.
Wallace told the Sunday Times that Russian President Vladimir Putin could send his massed troops into Ukraine “at any time.”
And he suggested unnamed Western countries were not being tough enough with Moscow.

Axis Berlin-Paris Deters NATO War Provocation | Feb. 16, 2022 |

Full break of [Old] Europe with aggressive war hawks in London and Washington DC.

Last Ditch Effort to Prevent War in Europe | 69 comments (69 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Last Ditch Effort to Prevent War in Europe (none / 1)

bromance

Reuters | Macron tells Biden that UAE, Saudi can barely raise oil output, 28 June Habeck's "spare capacity" under their feet; Sputnik | Jake the Snake to Joe and Manny: GET A ROOM

"I had a call with MbZ," Macron was heard telling U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G7 summit, using shorthand for UAE leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan. "He told me two things. I'm at a maximum, maximum (production capacity). This is what he claims."
"And then he said (the) Saudis can increase by 150 (thousands barrels per day). Maybe a little bit more, but they don't have huge capacities before six months' time," Macron said.

Nine heads of the G7

by Cat on Fri Jul 1st, 2022 at 12:50:06 PM EST

[INCONTINENCE ALERT] (none / 1)

The G7, which includes the U.S., Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the U.K., Canada, and (as an official but "non-enumerated" members) the European Union Commission and COUNCIL presidents

Forbes |The G7 is planning to tackle China in 3 ways--and it's working on price ~~caps for~~ fixing and bid rigging Russian oil , 28 June

laid out three policy areas in which it would tackle China, encompassing ~~market~~ monopolistic practices, human rights, and infrastructural investments in developing countries.

< wipes tears > I was hoping for more details about proposed racketeering mechanisms, but PAY WALL.

Two NEW! hilarious, cunning rumors are running the vine this weekend. (1) the fix is in at 50% Urals spot price ceiling/bbl (cur QoQ avg, USD 73/bbl, ~ 30% less than KSA heavy) - Kashidanomics; and (2) China will adopt the G7 fix.

Lemme check that wagging finger from the east...uh oh.
Global Times | G7 is in no position to dictate nations' oil trade with Russia, 29 June

Details remain sketchy regarding the so-called "discussions." As of press time on Wednesday, there has been no official confirmation from relevant parties regarding Reuters' report, which cited an unidentified source . The report suggested that China and India would be able to buy Russian crude at even lowerprices under the plan, but that would represent a significant shift for China and India as both have refrained from joining in the US-led sanctions against Russia and have continued normal economic and trade cooperation with Russia.
[...]
Although it remains unclear what the reported discussions were about and what the outcome was, one thing is very clear: The G7 led by the US is primarily seeking to increase pressure on Russia, as their previous moves fail to sway Moscow, and the interests of China and India or any other country for that matter is not their primary concern despite the so-called "attractive pitch."
[...]
While a cap on Russian oil prices may sound like a great idea for the West when it comes to curbing Moscow's revenues from oil sales, implementing such a price cap could only be a fantasy with little feasibility if G7 cannot get the world's major oil importers on the same page.
Yet, the problem is that G7 nations are no longer major buyers of Russian oil, and as an unrelated third party, the G7 has neither the qualification nor the market power < wipes tears > to dictate energy trade among China, India and Russia.

the nekkid ultimatum

Western media reports so far suggested that the West may impose such a price cap through insurance. About 95 percent of the world's tanker fleet is insured through the International Group of Protection & Indemnity Clubs in London [!] and some companies in other European countries. G7 could tell crude buyers that if they want to continue using the insurance service for Russian oil shipment, they need to agree to a "capped price."

No.

If there is a need for price adjustment in bilateral energy trade, China and Russia can discuss the issue through bilateral channels. G7 has no qualification to tell them how to conduct trade.

University of D'Oh: "analysts warn the move could prompt Russia to cut Europe off completely"
Mr Market: "Oil is likely to hit $200 a barrel under the disastrous G7 plan"

by Cat on Sun Jul 3rd, 2022 at 07:18:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

crude parity watch (none / 1)

(ESPO, Sokol) Urals*: ROW

OPEC (1960 FTA): IR, IQ, KW, NG, SA, VZ, LY, UE, AL, AO, GQ, CG, GA; Plus OM*, s-SS*, SS*, BN*, RU*, MX*, AZ*, KZ*, MY*, BH*, EC*, ID*, QA*

BONUS

IMF parity watch
XDR imperial basket: ROW

Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Ghana back to IMF as economic conditions worsen, 1 Jul

Ghanaians in recent months have been feeling the pinch of record inflation [29%] and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war amid cuts in government spending to avoid a full-blown debt crisis.
[...]
There was a two-day protest in Accra this week over fuel price hikes, inflation and an economic downturn. The Arise Ghana group said it wanted the government to cancel the Electronic Transaction Levy (E-levy) immediately and also take steps to reduce inflation and arrest the depreciation of the cedi[GHS:USD, EUR] to help bring relief to the Ghanaian people.

2022 Crude Oil Production in Ghana increased to 172 BBL/D in February

AU/OAU(2002/1963 FTA): BI, BJ, CM, CF, CG, CD, GY, GA, ST, CM, DJ, ER, ET, KE, MG, MU, RW, SC, SO, SS, s-SS, TZ, UG, DZ, EG, LY, MR, MA, EH, TN, AO, BW, EZ, LS, MW, MZ, NA, ZA, ZM, BN, BF, CV, CI, GH, GM, GN, LY, ML, NI, NG, SL, SN, TG, TD

ECOWAS (1972 FTA): BN, BJ, CI, CV, GH, GY, GM, GN, GW, SN, NI, NG, SL, LB, TG

by Cat on Sun Jul 3rd, 2022 at 08:17:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

SIDEBAR Commodity Insights 1 July (none / 1)

Platts launches 15 additional West African [EME] crude oil Market Parity Prices, NG blends reference table

The reference baskets, calculated outright prices, and differentials are normalized to reflect delivery to Northwest Europe [BWAH!], accounting for freight and regional refining input prices. Platts reviews its MPP model annually to ensure it continues to reflect prevailing market conditions and quality of the crude grades.

by Cat on Sun Jul 3rd, 2022 at 08:41:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

SIDEBAR sanctions "embargo" (none / 1)

ECOWAS lifts Mali sanctions, agrees on Burkina transition, 3 Jul

West African leaders met in Ghana, Sunday, to review sanctions imposed on three neighbor countries. ECOWAS heads of states lifted economic and financial sanctions on Mali, approved Burkina[-Faso] transition timetable[,] and gave Guinea an additional one-month reprieve to present an "acceptable" timetable. During the summit, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, president of Guinea-Bissau, was elected as new chairman of the bloc.
[...]
The consensus Mali and ECOWAS reached plans that Mali will hold presidential elections in February 2024. The poll will be preceded by a referendum on a revised constitution in March 2023 and legislative elections in late 2023. Brou said ECOWAS would continue to monitor the situation.
[...]
Ecowas* commission president pointed at the Conakry's proposal of 36-month transition period. The bloc named a new mediator. ...Guinea's ["]junta["] had so far refused ECOWAS-deisgnated mediator and announced a 36-month transition - which the period that African Union chairperson labelled "unthinkable". The Guinean military rulers met the main political parties on Monday, but they have made their participation in the dialogue conditional on the nomination of an ECOWAS mediator.
[...]
suspension of all three nations from ECOWAS would remain in force until they hold elections.

* tell-tale UK-Eng. symptom of Anglo disease

by Cat on Mon Jul 4th, 2022 at 12:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Biden: 'For God's sake ...' (none / 0)

On 26 March, President Biden, speaking in Warsaw, said, unscripted: "For God's sake, this man [Putin] cannot remain in power." Such an overt statement of intention for regime change in Russia has not gone down well in most of Europe. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken later clarified Biden's Warsaw remark:

"As you know, and as you have heard us say repeatedly, we do not have a strategy of regime change in Russia, or anywhere else, for that matter".
Blinken has apparently forgotten Vietnam, Chile, Iraq, Afghanistan, and quite a few more.
Consider the following quotes. On 24 February, during a White House press conference on the first day of Russia's invasion, Biden said sanctions are designed not to prevent invasion but to punish Russia after invading "...so the people of Russia know what he has brought on them. That is what this is all about."
On 27 February, James Heappey, UK Minister for the Armed Forces, wrote in the Daily Telegraph: "His failure must be complete; Ukrainian sovereignty must be restored, and the Russian people empowered to see how little he cares for them. In showing them that, Putin's days as President will surely be numbered... He'll lose power and he won't get to choose his successor." Finally, on 1 March, Boris Johnson's spokesperson said the sanctions on Russia "we are introducing, that large parts of the world are introducing, are to bring down the Putin regime."
These statements reflect long-standing US strategy for regime change in Moscow, with Ukraine as the pivot. On one hand, send sufficient military and other equipment to Ukraine to sink the Russian military in a quagmire. On the other hand, impose severe, far-reaching sanctions on Russia so as to cause major disruption to the Russian elite and a major contraction of living conditions for the Russian middle-class. The combination should last long enough for Russians to rise up to overthrow Putin and install a Yeltsin-like President more sympathetic to the West.
But this weapons-plus-sanctions strategy needed a cause. Putin's invasion was the required casus belli. It in no way excuses Russia's invasion and its despicable tactics to say that the Kremlin fell into a US and Nato trap.

As the Warmongers Are Winning In Rhetoric

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Fri Jul 1st, 2022 at 09:44:43 PM EST

VDL Calls for Regime Change in Kyiv (none / 0)

In the middle of the war with Russia, EU expects Ukraine to legislate and implement new rules and laws!
— mustafa özkayık (@mustafaozkayik) June 17, 2022

EU chief: Ukraine needs to give anti-corruption reforms 'teeth' | DW News |. 🤣

How does one spell naivety?

'Ukraine will lead': EU chief urges Ukraine to speed up anti-corruption reforms | LeMonde |

"Your European path and the reconstruction of the country will go hand in hand," she said. "Ukraine will be in the lead. Massive investments will have to come, but to maximise their impact and to foster business confidence, investments will have to be coupled with a new wave of reforms."

And VDL is key in decision making of EU policy ... extraordinary.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 11:47:32 AM EST

EU Fast Track Expansion and Corruption (none / 0)

NOW: 160 house searches ongoing in Romania 🇷🇴, links to Austria 🇦🇹
During this investigation, we discovered that an organised criminal group set up +150 fictitious companies & used them to fraudulently obtain EU & national funding.
More updates to follow: [_link]
— European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO) (@EUProsecutor) June 28, 2022

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