Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Last Ditch Effort to Prevent War in Europe

by Oui Thu Jun 30th, 2022 at 08:58:46 PM EST

Not by US president Biden, nor by Antony Blinken ... not by key warmongers UK PM Boris Johnson with cabinet members Ben Wallace or new FM Liz Truss ... the new German administration was far from capable to tackle this global crisis ... EU President Emmanuelle Macron stood alone ... not even backing from EU Foreign Affairs minister Josep Borrell - very weak performance, anti-Russia bias - and  VDL with previous task as Defense minister too gave no backing in this effort to meet the decades long request by Russia to make a security deal for all of Europe.


Biden, Johnson, Stoltenberg vetoed any commitment for a diplomatic compromise ... even a begin of negotiations ... the Donbas stand-off already ensured 8 years and the Minsk agreements were torpedoed by both Kyiv and Washington. Zelensky had no leverage to make any decision not in line with Warsaw, London, NATO HQ and Washington. Already #zelensky was a dead man walking ... on intensive care with oxygen moderated by his "allies".

Kremlin

News conference following Russian-French talks

Moscow, 8th February 2022

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mr President, ladies and gentlemen, It is a pleasure to welcome you to the Kremlin and to host the President of the French Republic, Mr Emmanuel Macron in Russia.

It appears symbolic that our meeting is taking place on February 7 (it looks like it will end on February 8, Moscow time), the day when a fundamental treaty between Russia and France was signed 30 years ago. That vital document provided a reliable foundation for the development of bilateral cooperation based on partnership and mutual respect for decades to come.

    The 26-point agreement, signed by Presidents Boris Yeltsin of Russia and Francois Mitterrand of France, commits their governments to consult during times of crisis and to avoid any future division of Europe by building "a network of peace and solidarity" through new security arrangements on the continent.

    "We are no longer enemies, or even potential adversaries," Yeltsin declared at a press conference following the signing ceremony. "We want to become allies."

Our talks with President Macron today were held in a business-like atmosphere and were substantive and meaningful.

[Continued in a separate diary for full Kremlin press briefing]

US Intelligence: Attack 'Imminent' Postponed To Next Week | Fri. Feb. 11th, 2022 |

Ushakov added, Putin said the West had ignored main Russia's security concerns, saying the US and its allies had been "pumping up" Ukraine with new weaponry and encouraging provocations by Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region and in Crimea.

Biden warns Putin US will ‘impose severe costs’ on Russia if it invades Ukraine

US President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call Saturday that the United States "will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia" should it invade Ukraine.

Macron Urges EU Dialogue with Russia | Jan. 20, 2022 |

Watching tonight ...

Europe L'aventure Française -- France2 documentary Macron in Moscow call with Putin

Macron riles Russia with documentary releasing content of Putin calls | Le Monde |

Unashamed to create scenes on the international stage, French President Emmanuel Macron sometimes takes liberties with the levels of secrecy that are usually enforced in diplomatic affairs. Even if it means causing a few incidents.

Russian state news agency Ria Novosti, a conduit for Russian President Vladimir Putin, recently alluded to the France 2 broadcast of A President, Europe and the War. In this documentary filmed in the heart of the Elysée Palace and scheduled to air on Thursday, June 30, director Guy Lagache was allowed to record the entire conversation between the French president and his Russian counterpart. With excerpts from this call having been published in the last few days across various media, the Russian agency took offense and stated on Twitter that "for a long time the French have not respected the diplomatic rules of negotiations."

The filmed exchange took place on February 20, four days before the war. Mr. Lagache followed the almost two-hour-long interview from the office of the head of the diplomatic cell of the Élysée, Emmanuel Bonne. He recorded as Mr. Macron tried to push Mr. Putin to an agreement "in principle" to meet with Joe Biden in Geneva.

The film includes nine riveting minutes in which the Russian president explained that the Ukrainian government "is not democratically elected" but the result of a "bloody coup d'état" during which "people were burned alive," and for which Volodymyr Zelensky "is one of those responsible." Mr. Putin said it was "always a lot of pleasure" to speak with Mr. Macron, including from his gym, and made some promises.

(Near the end of the call I understood both presidents would leave it to their advisors for a communique and further talks - Putin was now heading to or watch an ice hockey match -- desinteresse drips from this comment ... time has elapsed and Macron  had a solitary proposition without any backing ... on personal recognition he came empty-handed ... the fool ... in a call with Boris Johnson, he got a negative reply negotiations won't get you anywhere ... the UK never, never tried and showed vile adversity to any opening towards the Kremlin. Macron never had a chance two minutes before twelve of a war waiting to happen.)

Behind the scenes, Mr. Bonne warned Mr. Lagache that the Russian president "always lies."

In fact, the meeting between the Russian and American presidents never took place.

Late call Macron with Boris Johnson on February 20

Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to French President Macron tonight about the situation in Ukraine | 20 February, 2022 |

The Prime Minister spoke to French President Macron tonight about the situation in Ukraine.

They updated one another on their respective diplomatic efforts, including President Macron's call with President Putin today.

The Prime Minister noted that President Putin's commitments to President Macron were a welcome sign that he might still be willing to engage in finding a diplomatic solution. The Prime Minister stressed that Ukraine's voice must be central in any discussions.

The leaders agreed on the need for both Russia and Ukraine to meet their commitments under the Minsk Agreements in full. They also underscored the need for President Putin to step back from his current threats and withdraw troops from Ukraine's border.

Nonsense how the media reported the failed telephone call ... the Pentagon and NSA espionage new what was about to happen.

Macron paves way for potential Putin-Biden summit on Ukraine crisis | The Guardian |

Zelensky reacted after the attack on Ukraine 🇺🇦 started ... suggested to get together with allies and Biden to STOP THE WAR, I am sure Putin 🇷🇺 will listen 😡 .. Macron asked Zelensky if he was willing to negotiate ... he replied in the affirmative ⁉️

Why in hell 🔥 did this war start ... no one stepped up to negotiate ... too many hardliners with an anti-Russia agenda ... Europe, UK and especially Biden failed miserably, just as I suspected.

As it happened: Macron pushes for diplomacy, US warns Russian invasion of Ukraine imminent | France24 - Feb. 20, 2022 16:14pm |

Satellite images show new Russian troop build-up

[Update: 02:08am Paris time]

Satellite images show new deployments of Russian troops and military equipment near the Ukrainian border, a US company said Sunday evening. 
The pictures show "multiple new field deployments of armoured equipment and troops" departing from existing military sites into forests and fields approximately 9 to 19 miles from Russia's border with Ukraine, US satellite imagery company Maxar said in an email.

Closing ranks to fight a war, there was no appetite to prevent this war.

No surprise France Elysee releases this documentary now as the united NATO military effort is failing on all sides. Winning the PR battle but losing on the military battlefield.

Zelensky will travel to Poland and wait for the instructions from president Joe Biden. ‼️

Analysis by military watchers from rightwing warmongers who were optimistic about a Russian defeat ...

Patient and Confident, Putin Shifts Out of Wartime Crisis Mode | NY Times |

Great insight behind the scenes ... valuable.

Related diaries …

Antagonizing Europe's Best Partner to Deliver Gas | Feb. 5, 2022 |

Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned against Europe's No.1 economy becoming a "pawn" in Russia's game. Natural gas stockpiles across the EU are at their lowest in years as tensions over Ukraine intensify. False representation of facts in behest of Biden's war on the European consumer for American interests only.

Whiff of Munich in the Air | Feb, 13, 2022 |

Damn irresponsible fools at the controls of war and devastation ... freedom of Europe at stake. Do not expect any rational leadership out of Washington DC. Mainland Europe should take a long lead what has happened to American democracy after the 9/11 attacks.

Where are the mass protests?

UK minister likens Russia-Ukraine to WWII appeasement: ’Whiff of Munich in the air’ | Feb. 13, 2022 |

British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has compared Western diplomatic efforts to head off a Russian invasion of Ukraine to the appeasement of Nazi Germany ahead of World War II.

Wallace told the Sunday Times that Russian President Vladimir Putin could send his massed troops into Ukraine “at any time.”

And he suggested unnamed Western countries were not being tough enough with Moscow.

Axis Berlin-Paris Deters NATO War Provocation | Feb. 16, 2022 |

Full break of [Old] Europe with aggressive war hawks in London and Washington DC.

Display:
bromance

Reuters | Macron tells Biden that UAE, Saudi can barely raise oil output, 28 June Habeck's "spare capacity" under their feet; Sputnik | Jake the Snake to Joe and Manny: GET A ROOM
"I had a call with MbZ," Macron was heard telling U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G7 summit, using shorthand for UAE leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan. "He told me two things. I'm at a maximum, maximum (production capacity). This is what he claims."

"And then he said (the) Saudis can increase by 150 (thousands barrels per day). Maybe a little bit more, but they don't have huge capacities before six months' time," Macron said.


Nine heads of the G7

by Cat on Fri Jul 1st, 2022 at 12:50:06 PM EST
The G7, which includes the U.S., Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the U.K., Canada, and (as an official but "non-enumerated" members) the European Union Commission and COUNCIL presidents
Forbes |The G7 is planning to tackle China in 3 ways--and it's working on price caps for fixing and bid rigging Russian oil , 28 June
laid out three policy areas in which it would tackle China, encompassing market monopolistic practices, human rights, and infrastructural investments in developing countries.
< wipes tears > I was hoping for more details about proposed racketeering mechanisms, but PAY WALL.

Two NEW! hilarious, cunning rumors are running the vine this weekend. (1) the fix is in at 50% Urals spot price ceiling/bbl (cur QoQ avg, USD 73/bbl, ~ 30% less than KSA heavy) - Kashidanomics; and (2) China will adopt the G7 fix.

Lemme check that wagging finger from the east...uh oh.
Global Times | G7 is in no position to dictate nations' oil trade with Russia, 29 June

Details remain sketchy regarding the so-called "discussions." As of press time on Wednesday, there has been no official confirmation from relevant parties regarding Reuters' report, which cited an unidentified source . The report suggested that China and India would be able to buy Russian crude at even lowerprices under the plan, but that would represent a significant shift for China and India as both have refrained from joining in the US-led sanctions against Russia and have continued normal economic and trade cooperation with Russia.
[...]
Although it remains unclear what the reported discussions were about and what the outcome was, one thing is very clear: The G7 led by the US is primarily seeking to increase pressure on Russia, as their previous moves fail to sway Moscow, and the interests of China and India or any other country for that matter is not their primary concern despite the so-called "attractive pitch."  
[...]
While a cap on Russian oil prices may sound like a great idea for the West when it comes to curbing Moscow's revenues from oil sales, implementing such a price cap could only be a fantasy with little feasibility if G7 cannot get the world's major oil importers on the same page.

Yet, the problem is that G7 nations are no longer major buyers of Russian oil, and as an unrelated third party, the G7 has neither the qualification nor the market power < wipes tears > to dictate energy trade among China, India and Russia.

the nekkid ultimatum
Western media reports so far suggested that the West may impose such a price cap through insurance. About 95 percent of the world's tanker fleet is insured through the International Group of Protection & Indemnity Clubs in London [!] and some companies in other European countries. G7 could tell crude buyers that if they want to continue using the insurance service for Russian oil shipment, they need to agree to a "capped price."
No.
If there is a need for price adjustment in bilateral energy trade, China and Russia can discuss the issue through bilateral channels. G7 has no qualification to tell them how to conduct trade.
University of D'Oh: "analysts warn the move could prompt Russia to cut Europe off completely"
Mr Market: "Oil is likely to hit $200 a barrel under the disastrous G7 plan"
by Cat on Sun Jul 3rd, 2022 at 07:18:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(ESPO, Sokol) Urals*: ROW

OPEC (1960 FTA): IR, IQ, KW, NG, SA, VZ, LY, UE, AL, AO, GQ, CG, GA; Plus OM*, s-SS*, SS*, BN*, RU*, MX*, AZ*, KZ*, MY*, BH*, EC*, ID*, QA*

BONUS

IMF parity watch
XDR imperial basket: ROW

Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Ghana back to IMF as economic conditions worsen, 1 Jul

Ghanaians in recent months have been feeling the pinch of record inflation [29%] and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war amid cuts in government spending to avoid a full-blown debt crisis.
[...]
There was a two-day protest in Accra this week over fuel price hikes, inflation and an economic downturn. The Arise Ghana group said it wanted the government to cancel the Electronic Transaction Levy (E-levy) immediately and also take steps to reduce inflation and arrest the depreciation of the cedi[GHS:USD, EUR] to help bring relief to the Ghanaian people.
2022 Crude Oil Production in Ghana increased to 172 BBL/D in February

AU/OAU(2002/1963 FTA): BI, BJ, CM, CF, CG, CD, GY, GA, ST, CM, DJ, ER, ET, KE, MG, MU, RW, SC, SO, SS, s-SS, TZ, UG, DZ, EG, LY, MR, MA, EH, TN, AO, BW, EZ, LS, MW, MZ, NA, ZA, ZM, BN, BF, CV, CI, GH, GM, GN, LY, ML, NI, NG, SL, SN, TG, TD

ECOWAS (1972 FTA): BN, BJ, CI, CV, GH, GY, GM, GN, GW, SN, NI, NG, SL, LB, TG

by Cat on Sun Jul 3rd, 2022 at 08:17:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Platts launches 15 additional West African [EME] crude oil Market Parity Prices, NG blends reference table
The reference baskets, calculated outright prices, and differentials are normalized to reflect delivery to Northwest Europe [BWAH!], accounting for freight and regional refining input prices. Platts reviews its MPP model annually to ensure it continues to reflect prevailing market conditions and quality of the crude grades.
by Cat on Sun Jul 3rd, 2022 at 08:41:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ECOWAS lifts Mali sanctions, agrees on Burkina transition, 3 Jul
West African leaders met in Ghana, Sunday, to review sanctions imposed on three neighbor countries. ECOWAS heads of states lifted economic and financial sanctions on Mali, approved Burkina[-Faso] transition timetable[,] and gave Guinea an additional one-month reprieve to present an "acceptable" timetable. During the summit, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, president of Guinea-Bissau, was elected as new chairman of the bloc.
[...]
The consensus Mali and ECOWAS reached plans that Mali will hold presidential elections in February 2024. The poll will be preceded by a referendum on a revised constitution in March 2023 and legislative elections in late 2023. Brou said ECOWAS would continue to monitor the situation.
[...]
Ecowas* commission president pointed at the Conakry's proposal of 36-month transition period. The bloc named a new mediator. ...Guinea's ["]junta["] had so far refused ECOWAS-deisgnated mediator and announced a 36-month transition - which the period that African Union chairperson labelled "unthinkable". The Guinean military rulers met the main political parties on Monday, but they have made their participation in the dialogue conditional on the nomination of an ECOWAS mediator.
[...]
suspension of all three nations from ECOWAS would remain in force until they hold elections.

* tell-tale UK-Eng. symptom of Anglo disease
by Cat on Mon Jul 4th, 2022 at 12:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On 26 March, President Biden, speaking in Warsaw, said, unscripted: "For God's sake, this man [Putin] cannot remain in power." Such an overt statement of intention for regime change in Russia has not gone down well in most of Europe. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken later clarified Biden's Warsaw remark:

Blinken has apparently forgotten Vietnam, Chile, Iraq, Afghanistan, and quite a few more.

Consider the following quotes. On 24 February, during a White House press conference on the first day of Russia's invasion, Biden said sanctions are designed not to prevent invasion but to punish Russia after invading "...so the people of Russia know what he has brought on them. That is what this is all about."

On 27 February, James Heappey, UK Minister for the Armed Forces, wrote in the Daily Telegraph: "His failure must be complete; Ukrainian sovereignty must be restored, and the Russian people empowered to see how little he cares for them. In showing them that, Putin's days as President will surely be numbered... He'll lose power and he won't get to choose his successor." Finally, on 1 March, Boris Johnson's spokesperson said the sanctions on Russia "we are introducing, that large parts of the world are introducing, are to bring down the Putin regime."

These statements reflect long-standing US strategy for regime change in Moscow, with Ukraine as the pivot. On one hand, send sufficient military and other equipment to Ukraine to sink the Russian military in a quagmire. On the other hand, impose severe, far-reaching sanctions on Russia so as to cause major disruption to the Russian elite and a major contraction of living conditions for the Russian middle-class. The combination should last long enough for Russians to rise up to overthrow Putin and install a Yeltsin-like President more sympathetic to the West.

But this weapons-plus-sanctions strategy needed a cause. Putin's invasion was the required casus belli. It in no way excuses Russia's invasion and its despicable tactics to say that the Kremlin fell into a US and Nato trap.

As the Warmongers Are Winning In Rhetoric

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Fri Jul 1st, 2022 at 09:44:43 PM EST

EU chief: Ukraine needs to give anti-corruption reforms 'teeth' | DW News |. 🤣

How does one spell naivety?

'Ukraine will lead': EU chief urges Ukraine to speed up anti-corruption reforms | LeMonde |

"Your European path and the reconstruction of the country will go hand in hand," she said. "Ukraine will be in the lead. Massive investments will have to come, but to maximise their impact and to foster business confidence, investments will have to be coupled with a new wave of reforms."

And VDL is key in decision making of EU policy ... extraordinary.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 11:47:32 AM EST


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 10:31:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

'Nokiagate' pits Dutch lawmakers against Mark Rutte in transparency debate | Politico - May 19, 2022 |

Dutch parliament takes aim at prime minister over deleting text messages.

EU executive rebuked for not disclosing Von der Leyen-Pfizer texts | The Guardian - Jan. 28, 2022 |

An investigation by an EU watchdog into text messages sent by European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, to Pfizer's CEO has found the EU's executive arm guilty of "maladministration".

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 10:33:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How little has changed in 10 years except the Ukrainian quagmire has expanded.

An excerpt from my diary @BooMan:

Making An Enemy - Demonizing Putin Endangers America's Security

In my recent comments, I expressed astonishment how US and Western media plus 'progressive' bloggers participate in pure propaganda on global issues foregoing independent reporting and historical facts. It appears I'm not alone and watched some issues at CNN and read the following articles ...

Christiane Amanpour goes after Wolf Blazer on CNN.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 11:54:23 AM EST
Demonizing Putin Endangers America's Security

by Stephen F. Cohen

(The Nation) Sept. 16, 2013 - Nonetheless, Putin-bashing on the right and the left, featuring mostly irrelevant, baseless or hyperbolic allegations about his political record, continues unabated with scarcely any countervailing voices in the mainstream media. It ranges from characterizing Putin as a "KGB thug" whose policies at home are akin to those of Saddam, Stalin and Hitler to claiming that his entire foreign policy, past and present, consists of the "restoration of the Russian empire" and "Poking America in the Eye"

Do these commentators know that Putin did more to assist the US ground war in Afghanistan after 9/11 than did any other head of state and continues to facilitate the supplying of American and NATO forces still fighting there? That he backed harsher sanctions against Iran's nuclear ambitions and refused to sell Teheran a highly effective air-defense system? Or that his agencies shared with Washington counter-terrorism information that might have prevented the Boston bombings in April.

An earlier article - two years ahead of the Maidan "Revolt" ...

Stop the Pointless Demonization of Putin | The Nation - May 7, 2012 |

The vilifying charges levelled at Russia's president by the American media could undermine rational U.S. policy-making.

RussiaGate initiated by Clinton/Biden Democrats was actually IntelGate. Don't tell.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 11:56:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the diaries ...

Joe Biden was a fervent backer of the Russian reset button - Cold War 2.0 - leading foreign policy during the Obama administration. With many advisors in key position, Putin and Lavrov will raise the castle bridge to weather the coming assault.

Over a year ago, after Biden's inauguration ...



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 11:58:35 AM EST

Just protecting NATO's right to expand across the Arctic ...

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 12:00:10 PM EST

Bandera @EuroTrib

Stepan Bandera - Hero or Nazi Sympathizer

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 12:02:48 PM EST
Regime Change In Ukraine - Who Bugged Nuland? | Feb. 7, 2014 |

Victoria Nuland, a senior US state department official, is speaking to Geoffrey Pyatt, the US ambassador to Ukraine. They bat around ideas on which of the MPs should be Prime Minister in an interim government.

Nuland notes that she wants a UN diplomat to go to Kiev to seal an accord on the US-model cabinet. "So that would be great, I think, to help glue this thing and have the UN help glue it and, you know, fuck the EU," she says.

Robert Kagan (neocon) is married to American diplomat Victoria Nuland.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 12:05:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 12:07:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 12:09:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jul 3rd, 2022 at 11:43:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ukraine's ambassador in Berlin since 2014, is unapologetic

My earlier diary ...

Battle for Babi Yar

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jul 6th, 2022 at 05:22:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fighting corruption in all sides, Tetiana Chornovol activist, journalist, member Verkhova Rada for People's Front after Maidan Revolt and widow of Azov fighter.

Member political party UNA - UNSO (1996-2001) with military nationalist wing linked to Rights Sektor.

Tetyana Chornovol Stugna-P anti-tank guided missile operator north of Kyiv

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 12:14:07 PM EST
Where Have All the Russia Experts Gone? | Posted by Jillian - March 7, 2014 |

Although the US might wish to move on to different issues for a different century, Russia refuses to go away. As the largest country in the world, with the 6th largest economy, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and in possession of a third-term president who is very vocal and extremely defensive of Russia's "near abroad" (ближнее зарубежье), its post-Soviet sphere of influence, in some fairly aggressive ways, the international community can't help but notice Russia. While Putin's leadership style might not win any awards in the West, recent independent polls of Russians show that a majority still approve their president's actions**. Rather than accept Putin's administration of Russia, the US has continuously vilified him in the media as a "KGB thug", pigeon-holing him in this role. This, unfortunately, leaves little room for positive relations to develop between Russia and the US in the foreseeable future, despite Russia's contributions in persuading Bashar al-Assad to eliminate his chemical weapons or creating openings for the US in Iran.

Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004-2005 represented a shift for modern Russia, as its neighbour began to pull away and look towards the West for the 21st century. Russia perceived the US support of the protestors and new government and subsequent attempts to draw Ukraine into NATO (coupled with EU offers of association agreements in competition with Russia's offers to join its Eurasian Customs Union) as efforts to impinge upon Russia's sphere of influence. US proposals to build radar/anti-missile installations in Central Europe, nominally targeted at Iran but much closer to Russia, further inflamed relations between the two countries.

Despite the proposed "reset" under the Obama administration, the anti-Putin rhetoric amongst US media and policymakers has continued. There are many demands on American foreign policy today, and one would not expect Russia to be its sole focus. Yet given Russia's continued global relevance, especially in relation to US national security (given its proximity to countries like North Korea, Afghanistan, and Iran), the US cannot afford ignore it, particularly if it is interested in avoiding 19th century solutions to 21st century problems (as John Kerry described Putin's belligerence in Crimea). It is therefore all the more important that US government agencies, NGOs, and media outlets continue to hire and cultivate Russia/Eurasia analysts, because failure to understand Russia in context will at best continue to lead to crises like the one occurring now in Crimea and at worst result in a hot war beneficial to no one.

Rep. Peter King: Obama is being outsmarted by KGB thug Putin | 2 jul. 2013 |



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 12:16:53 PM EST
 

Sen. John McCain says Putin is a "thug" and "killer" -- 11 Dec. 2016

A date where Republican Trump was elected President and McCain sits on the explosive MI6 product of another dodge dossier soon to be released in January 2017.

British Intelligence Delivers Another 'Dodgy Dossier' | by Oui on Jan. 12, 2017 |

Suffering from the improbable loss of their star candidate, Democrats and progressive pundits fell into the intelligence trap managed by DNI head James Clapper and CIA head John Brennan.

RussiaGate is actually IntelGate.

Human rights under the Obama/Biden administration ...

Obama Now Calls Rendition 'Transfer' and Shrouds It In Secrecy | Posted by Oui on Jan 2, 2012 |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 12:21:34 PM EST
Faded Romance -- How Mitteleuropa fell out of love with America | By Charles Gati - Nov. 1, 2008 |

Since the Bush Administration took office in 2001, the United States has lost most of its once immense influence in the Central and East European countries of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria. Each of these new democracies, having joined NATO and the European Union in the past decade, continues to maintain at least cordial relations with Washington. Many have done more than that, contributing to military actions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia and Kosovo led by the United States and NATO (or the European Union).

Even so, their politicians and diplomats now tilt toward the European Union, and their citizens' daily lives are absorbed and transformed far more by European associations than by American ones. Geography, money and shared European values have made a difference. Far more surprising is the improvement in relations between Russia and several of the countries of Mitteleuropa--notably Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Latvia--primarily because of their need for Russian energy. Unless the Georgia crisis turns into a game changer, the region's romance with the United States will come to an end.

From the diaries by DoDo

The Central European Realignment

When you think of Coalitions of the Willing, missile defense bases, visa agreements, fear of Russia, and veto threats in the EU, Central-Eastern Europe seems hopelessly Atlanticist.

However, I have long argued that things aren't that simple and things are changing. South of Poland, there are pipeline deals (and again), criticism of Georgia for the war with Russia, even in Poland, where there is a new pragmatic and Europe-focused approach to Russia, too, and a Euro drive.

It seems the new reality has dawned on some members of the USAmerican foreign policy elite, too. In the aptly named American Interest magazine, eminent political scientist Charles Gati writes of a Faded Romance.

Yesterday's Bolsheviki and Today's Deplorables

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 03:17:25 PM EST
The Reminiscences of Toby Trister Gati

As to my background--my family comes from that part of the world. Honestly, perhaps I owe Tsarist Russia a "thank you" for the pogroms which drove out the Jews--if the pogroms hadn't happened and my family and millions of others hadn't left, the Nazis would have killed the entire family. History works in strange ways.

The first time I went to Russia was in college, as part of a language program with Ohio State University. We spent five weeks in Russia, traveling there on the Alexander Pushkin, which was called a cruise line. I think I actually put my life on the line, going on that thing from Montreal to Leningrad, in March. The Atlantic Ocean is not kind to travelers at that time of year.

But we got there and we started to study the language. We were kids, so somebody in authority saying to us you can't do something was the equivalent of saying, you must do it. So we met Russians despite the fact that our minders didn't want us to. From Leningrad, we went down to a Sputnik Camp in the Crimea for a few days. Actually, some people there are still my friends. It sounds strange, but Russians are like that. Once you're a friend, you're a friend forever--or you're an enemy forever. It can be either way.

I soon went back for another language program in Leningrad. The dormitory had five or six people in each room. We had hot water twice a week for two hours. The food was terrible. The Russians had to live on different floors, and our floors were guarded by a dezhurnaya [attendant]. But our view was of the Winter Palace, so it was pretty cool. Once you've made friends and gotten to understand some things about Russia's history, you get hooked on it.

I didn't have any money to ever consider going back on my own, certainly not as a tourist or student. So I took groups of sixteen and seventeen-year-olds to Russia, working with Putney Student Travel and other organizations. We would go on bike trips through Scandinavia and then into Russia, spending some time in Moscow, and then again go to Sochi or other places.

I was with American kids, and one of the biggest challenges was convincing them that they had to obey the laws. Their view is, "I'm an American, they can't touch me." I said, "You're in the Soviet Union, yes they can," and so this was a very interesting cultural experience.

Their upbringing and expectation of how the authorities would treat them was so different from how Russians knew government. I remember one kid sent home a postcard with a stamp that had a picture of Lenin on it. He put an eye patch over Lenin's eye and then he wrote under it, "Moshe Dayan," which he thought was really funny. Actually, everybody did, except for the woman in the post office, who reported him. They really did ask him to leave the country for desecrating an icon--the picture of Lenin on the stamp!



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 03:19:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Averell Harriman Reflects on Russia

The former ambassador and governor declares in this talk on American-Soviet relations:

    "Peace with Russia depends on us."
Harriman disagrees with the then-fashionable Powder Keg Myth, that the Soviet Union is so rotten and volatile that a single spark will lead to its collapse. On the contrary, this patrician millionaire, businessman, veteran diplomat, and politician, seems to have a very clear-eyed grudging respect for our adversary. He admits there are lots of "gripes," particularly about housing, but admits that people are generally accepting of the regime. Because such a tight grip is maintained on education there is no radical student class. Though the people are "brainwashed" by incessant propaganda! it is up to the United States to deal with the USSR as an equal, not feed the frenzy of anti-communism by name-calling and needlessly aggressive acts.

Throughout this speech, delivered in Harriman's much mocked hesitating monotone, one feels he is not talking down to the audience but genuinely attempting to make his points. It's an interesting counterpoint to the Red Scare hysteria which dominated so many headlines of the day. 



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 03:23:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE
Avril Haines was sworn in as the Director of National Intelligence on January 21, 2021. She is the seventh Senate-confirmed DNI in our nation's history and the first woman to lead the U.S. Intelligence Community.

Director Haines has deep national security experience. During the Obama administration, she served as Assistant to the President and Principal Deputy National Security Advisor from 2015-2017, during which time she led the National Security Council's Deputies Committee. From 2013-2015, Haines was the Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. She was the first woman to hold both of these positions. She initially joined the federal government as a civil servant and over the last two decades has worked in all three branches of government, in and outside of the intelligence community, and in academia as a research scholar at Columbia University and a senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory....

post-Patriot Act (2001), vater of DNI
by Cat on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 03:42:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The causes and consequences of the Ukraine war

Professor Mearsheimer insisted that Moscow was not interested in making Ukraine part of Russia, but in making sure it would not become a springboard from Western aggression; and that Russia could not feel safe, develop and exist while facing a permanent threat from the territory of today's Ukraine. He insisted that despite the Western narrative about NATO, the determinant aspect to understand the root causes of this conflict is how Moscow sees the alliance's actions.

John Mearsheimer at the European University (EUI) in Florence on June 16

The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 06:40:41 PM EST
Biden's Choice Neutral Ukraine or Dystopia

Neocons prefer to annihilate and rebuild ...

Worry about fuel price and Congressional election more so than thousands of deaths in Ukraine.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2022 at 08:23:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The joke is over, the Tory joker got to go.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 06:33:08 AM EST
Undoubtedly his resignation letter is being drawn-up as we speak this morning.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 07:46:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The eyes of the world is on Great Britain watching in astonishment.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 07:47:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eyes of the workd? Does anybody outside the UK and the US even care?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 10:11:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trending World-wide in Top 3

True interest is indeed infinitesimal.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 10:40:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Austrian state broadcaster pays at least two professional royal-watchers, so I guess it is fair to say the European press cares? The press as a whole has been getting increasingly strange in recent years.
by generic on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 11:03:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 12:38:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 07:49:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 08:26:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 08:37:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Got Brexit done ... almost NI Protocol
Got through a pandemic with logistic waves of both crisis leftover
Global Great Britain based on military prowess ... Quad submarines as bonus
Had political allies as long as his living quarters was Downing Street
Ahead of an economic collapse and run-away inflation
Elites have profited, the poorest left in energy poverty
Shambles and cost of living crisis getting worse

Party before country ...
Breaking: made deal with Party to stay on over the Summer -- Idiotcy ... ruling the waves in a bathtub. NUTS! 🔥 🇬🇧

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 08:36:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Munich: Edge of War gives Neville Chamberlain a makeover | BBC News - Jan. 9, 2022 |

Munich: The Edge of War, is an adaptation of the Robert Harris bestseller Munich, the story of Chamberlain's attempts to avoid a war with Hitler in 1938, as the Nazi dictator prepared to invade the former Czechoslovakia, now the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

"Chamberlain has come down through history as pretty vilified."

In office
28 May 1937 - 10 May 1940
2 years and 348 days

Boris Johnson
In office
24 July 2019 - 7 July 2022
2 years and 348 days


'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 10:03:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Successor Found

Boris Johnson has appointed himself as caretaker PM by resigning only as leader of the Tory party. 🤣

Fooled you all ... I'm still around. 🤥 Grrrrh

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 10:08:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris gives a full summary of all of his "accomplishments" ... misleading of the public continues. Worthless as a failed leader ... the show must go on.

Keeping Up Appearances so very British ... no faint show of humility.

Putting up with Boris Johnson for so long ...

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 12:02:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let him stay to detriment of the Tory party ...

Next distraction for a bullying Boris ... thanking MI5



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 11:18:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Johnson is going - but he won't leave until he's dragged everyone down with him

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 11:32:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Next round of resignation are the fresh nominees of one day 😁⁉️

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 07:54:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
🌪 🤥 🐳 Titanic sinking in motion...

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 08:16:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah the pure bred British blood hounds. Well at least he blames his colleagues and not the media.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 12:19:51 PM EST


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 12:20:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 12:22:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well another elected leader in Western style democracy bites the dust after years of failure and Conservative policy. Adding crisis to crisis.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 12:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ellwood MP: "Poor relations with EU-27 costs the UK 4% GDP or £40bn a year."

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 7th, 2022 at 04:49:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Boris now leads an disassembled IKEA caretaker cabinet  ... Слава Великобританії 🇬🇧 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Take the best decision another crook made ...



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Jul 8th, 2022 at 11:09:25 AM EST
by Cat on Sat Jul 9th, 2022 at 03:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Guardian | Ukrainian strike on Russian-held town attributed to US-supplied missile, 12 July fertilizer and human casualties
At least seven people were reportedly killed by a Ukrainian missile strike on a large ["]ammunition["] store in the town of Nova Kakhovka, in Russia-occupied Kherson [oblast], in a strike attributed to recently acquired US weapons.

The claims of fatalities were made by the Russian-installed administration in the town and could not be immediately verified, though footage on social media showed a large explosion lighting up the night, burning ammunition and towering smoke.
[...]
Kyiv said it had launched artillery barrages that a destroyed a Russian arms depot, hitting artillery, armoured vehicles "and a warehouse with ammunition", and in addition carried out a "special operation" to free military captives in the Moscow-controlled region. Russian-backed authorities accused Ukraine of damaging civilian infrastructure.
[...]
Officials from the Russian-installed administration said the strike destroyed warehouses containing saltpetre [potassium nitrate], a chemical compound that can be used to make fertiliser or gunpowder.

CNN | Ukraine's harvest becomes the new battlefield, as fires blacken its arable heartlands, 11 July
Targeted assaults
Ukrainian officials are in no doubt that part of Russia's strategy is to destroy Ukraine's agricultural wealth....
agweb | Ukrainian Farmers Destroy Harvest Equipment to Keep Russians from Taking Crops, 27 June
Last week, police in the southern Kherson region, one of Ukraine's most productive arable areas, opened criminal proceedings over "the purposeful destruction" of crops by the Russian military....
South Front | Ukrainian helicopters burn harvest in Kherson region, 8 July A/V
The police accused Russian forces of "shelling agricultural land with incendiary shells. Large-scale fires occur every day, hundreds of hectares of wheat, barley and other grain crops have already burned."...
Reuters | Ukraine southern Odesa region starts 2022 grain harvest, 13 June
"Ukraine has already completed the 2022 grain sowing but the agriculture ministry gave no 2022 grain crop outlook."
Reuters | Ukraine sees 2022 harvest of around 48.5 million tonnes - deputy minister, 13 June
by Cat on Wed Jul 13th, 2022 at 03:26:51 PM EST

Europe Jacques Delors - Thinking Europe

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 14th, 2022 at 06:07:18 PM EST
Fifty News Headlines About Vladimir Putin's Health

Over the last months the British MI-6 disinformation service had fun with strewing rumors over Vladimir Putin's health, mostly via British tabloids. It used its usual tools - a former MI-6 chief, 'former' MI-6 spies and the ever available 'anonymous' Russian oligarch who lives in London. Like its other propaganda claims these were obvious nonsense but found a reliably echo in the gossip media.

Propaganda is often a projection of one's own failure ...

Dehumanising Ideology, Metaphors, and Psychological Othering as Evidence of Genocidal Intent

Evidence of genocidal intent is rarely overtly available. Prosecutors arguably avoid prosecuting the crime of genocide because of its too-high evidentiary threshold. This paper argues that psychology, linguistics, and biology provide some of the tools that courts should revert to in the proof of the dolus specialis. Every genocide is characterised by dehumanisation. There is an intrinsic connection between the génocidaire's understanding of the victims as dehumanised 'others' and the intent to destroy a group. Social psychology has shown that the perpetrator sets apart the victim group as inferior, subhuman, and a threat to the in-group.

The UK and Washington DC are well underway for a chance M.A.D.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 23rd, 2022 at 09:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
#14Juillet



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jul 14th, 2022 at 06:59:45 PM EST
Hmmmm... If only Ukraine and NATO had made Putin a reasonable offer.... the war of conquest he has been methodically planning for ten years could have been prevented?

While I fully understand, and even admire, the attempts in 1938 to prevent war; and while Macron's attempts at mediation were worthy, they were futile.

In such circumstances, any concession is recognised as a sign of weakness, and exploited accordingly.

Putin is still not ready to negotiate, so he'll have to be pushed back.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Jul 22nd, 2022 at 03:30:10 PM EST
Come on Euro ☘️ ... you can do better.

NATO? Ukraine? The man at the top pulling the strings and makes the moves is Joe ... initiated the coup d'état of 2014, got Hunter a nice position for a bit, issue has become quite personal. UA did all to prevent a Trump presidency, so why not support a friend and continue a failed foreign policy.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 23rd, 2022 at 06:45:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The most stupid bit of war propaganda ever designed. 😂

Whiff of Munich in the Air | Feb. 13, 2022 |

Zelensky knew exactly the red line of the Kremlin - see Cuban Missile crisis of 1962 - but had no legitimacy to negotiate an agreement. For eight years failed to meet the Minsk Agreements or fulfill the Normandy Four initiatives.

After the war started, Zelensky came forward with a compromise that would have met the Kremlin request .... a fortnight too late. A chained man under the impression of the Western hero ... such a Greek tragedy ... theater.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jul 23rd, 2022 at 06:58:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EU Failed to Manage Temporary Protection for Ukrainians: It Turned into Chaos, 19 July guideline infringements
Rules for Ukrainians who fled the war
[...]
Expectations vs. reality
[...]
Deportation threat?
[...]
One-way trip
[...]
by Cat on Sat Jul 23rd, 2022 at 12:04:29 AM EST
by Cat on Sun Jul 24th, 2022 at 11:10:19 PM EST


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jul 27th, 2022 at 02:41:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Translate:
Peace for Ukraine: arms deliveries instead of ceasefire demands

Ein Kriegswende ist ein Muss ...

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 25th, 2022 at 07:22:52 AM EST


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 25th, 2022 at 07:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 25th, 2022 at 07:25:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Waffenstillstand jetzt!

The authors of this appeal call on the West to end the Ukraine war through negotiations. Among the signatories are Juli Zeh and Richard David Precht.

Europe is faced with the task of restoring peace on the continent and securing it in the long term. This requires the development of a strategy to end the war as quickly as possible.

Thanks in part to massive economic sanctions and military support from Europe and the USA, Ukraine has so far been able to defend itself against the brutal Russian war of aggression. The longer the measures last, the more unclear it becomes, however, which war aim is associated with them.

Prominente fordern Waffenstillstand in der Ukraine

Der Botschafter der Ukraine in Deutschland, Andrij Melnyk, zeigte sich auf Twitter empört: ,,Nicht schon wieder, what a bunch of pseudo-intellectual loosers" (,,Nicht schon wieder, was für ein Haufen pseudo-intellektueller Versager"). Sie alle sollten sich endlich mit ihren ,,defätistischen ,,Ratschlägen" zum Teufel scheren".

Translation:
The ambassador of Ukraine in Germany, Andriy Melnyk, was outraged on Twitter: "Not again, what a bunch of pseudo-intellectual losers". They should all go to hell with their "defeatist "advice".

Andrij Melnyk dismissed by #zelensky for neo-Nazi sympathies ...

Ukrainian Hero Bandera Was (Not) a Mass Murderer

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 25th, 2022 at 07:28:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A reply ...

"Heavy Weapons Now!

The piquant thing about the collective call for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia is that no signatory had previously been conspicuous by having dealt with Russian-Ukrainian relations in depth. It can be assumed that none of the signatories understands Ukrainian. One wonders how many of the callers are proficient in Russian and to what extent. This repeats the pattern of the famous "Open Letter to Chancellor Scholz" from 28 intellectuals and artists who are not very familiar with Eastern Europe in the magazine "EMMA" of April 29, 2022.

The underrepresentation of Russia and Ukraine expertise in the letter on the Russia-Ukraine war is no coincidence

It is only to be welcomed if journalists and academics outside of Eastern Europe studies also speak out publicly about the region. Since the call is about a war between Ukraine and Russia, the complete absence of ...

Ignorance .... it is not about Ukraine 🇺🇦 it is the economic leadership of America at stake fought in a battle between mercenaries, proxies and broken armies with antique weapons that needed to be destroyed anyway. Of course it touches the lives and well being of all people across Europe and the Globe.

We will not leave the decision for war to the think tanks, warmongers and the generals. Stop the military industrial complex and lobbies destroying the planet.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 25th, 2022 at 07:29:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 25th, 2022 at 07:31:26 AM EST


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