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Studying 100% Renewable Energy Studies

by gmoke Tue Aug 23rd, 2022 at 11:56:48 PM EST

the war that matters is the war against the imagination
all other wars are subsumed in it.
Diane di Prima, "Rant"

On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research (https:/ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9837910) is a marvelous paper, a study of the peer-reviewed papers on 100% renewable energy systems from 1975 to date, a meta-study. It just might fire some imaginations and help us become realistic enough to demand the impossible, sooner rather than later.

"The main conclusion of the vast majority of 100% renewable energy systems studies is that such systems can power all energy in all regions of the world at low cost. As such, we do not need to rely on fossil fuels in the future. In the early 2020s, the consensus has increasingly become that solar PV and wind power will dominate the future energy system and new research increasingly shows that 100% renewable energy systems are not only feasible but also cost effective. This gives us the key to a sustainable civilization and the long-lasting prosperity of humankind."

The history of 100% renewable energy system analysis goes back to 1975 when the first study by Bent Sørensen was published in Science, using Denmark as a case study (https:www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.189.4199.255).

The next year, Amory Lovins published the second article on 100% renewables, for the United States, and became the first scholar to cite Sørensen (https:/www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/1976-10-01/energy-strategy-road-not-taken).

In 1993, the Stockholm Environment Institute for Greenpeace International published a report on 100% RE for the target year 2100 (https:/leap.sei.org/documents/greenpeacereport.pdf) with the intention of interesting the IPCC, IEA, IRENA and other energy and climate groups in the possibility. Unfortunately, these groups have begun to recognize the 100% RE goal only recently.

Three years later, Sørensen published the first global academic analysis of a 100% RE system for the target year 2050, 20 years after launching the field (https:www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0196890495002413).

In 2004, Lund, Mathiesen, and Østergaard of Aalborg University develop the freeware energy system analysis tool EnergyPLAN, optimized for 100% RE system simulations (https:www.energyplan.eu).

Five years later, more than a decade after Sørensen's first global paper, the second global 100% RE system analysis was published by Jacobson and Delucchi, with 2030 as their target year (https:www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-path-to-sustainable-energy-by-2030).

In 2011, Denmark targets 100% renewables across all energy sectors by 2050 and now is aiming for more than 100% renewable power by 2027, Austria plans to be 100% renewable by 2030, and due to the present war in Ukraine, Germany has moved its target for 100% RE electricity up to 2035 from 2045 which I believe was their previous schedule.

At COP 22 in Marrakesh in 2016, 48 countries pledged 100% RE supply at least in the power sector, with more than 61 countries setting 100% RE targets, formally and informally.

As of 2021, there are 666 known peer-reviewed articles on 100% RE systems, 44 articles "discussing generic questions and 38 articles reviewing the field of 100% RE system analyses, totaling 739 articles known in the field. These articles do not include published reports in the field of 100% RE system analyses focused on non-scientific target audiences such as industry, policy makers and the general public."

74% of all 100% RE studies are national or sub-national studies, 18% are regional and continental, only 8% are global.

The most affluent 3 billion are the most studied, the OECD and China: United States, Denmark, Germany, Australia, China, the United Kingdom, Finland, Sweden, Japan, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Italy, and Greece. Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia, where 5 billion people live, have yet to see many published studies.

In 2022, ten countries supply near or more than 100% of their electricity from renewables, mostly coming from hydropower: Albania, Bhutan, Congo, DR, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Iceland, Namibia, Nepal, Norway, Paraguay. Kenya, Scotland, Tajikistan, and Uruguay are in the 80-90% range.

100% renewable energy for electricity is a proven concept and 100% renewable energy for electricity plus everything else is a realistic goal, even, it seems, by 2030 if not earlier.

More 100% renewable energy studies?
. yes 100%
. no 0%
. not yes 0%
. not no 0%
. neither yes nor no 0%
. both yes and no 0%
. don't understand the question? 0%
. none of the above 0%

Votes: 1
Results | Other Polls
minus empirical observation

AP | Canada, Germany aim to start hydrogen shipments in 2025, 24 Aug

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz signed the deal in the port town of Stephenville, Newfoundland. A Canadian company has plans to build a zero-emission plant that will use wind energy to produce hydrogen [fuel] and ammonia [fertilizer feedstock] for [seaborne] export.
"The market case and the need to scale up was coming and wasn't quite here yet. Russia's illegal and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine has meant that everything gets accelerated," Trudeau said.
zero-emission mining?
The Canadian government earlier Tuesday signed separate agreements with Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz that will see the two German auto manufacturers secure access to Canadian raw materials for batteries in electric vehicles. The agreements include Canadian cobalt, graphite, nickel and lithium.
CBC | N.L. government lifts 15-year ban on onshore wind farms, 5 Apr 2022
The announcement comes as Ottawa contemplates giving the green light to offshore oil project, Bay du Nord. The Equinor-led proposal would see an estimated 300 million barrels of oil pumped out of the sea floor, with production slated to begin close to the end of this decade [2029].

It also coincides with the rebranding of the province's oil and gas regulator, which has dropped the word "petroleum" from its name in favour of "energy" and is now the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Energy Board.

[Industry, Energy and Technology Minister Andrew] Parsons said the government expects a demand for renewables continuing into the future.

Green Energy Mix | Newfoundland Wind Farm Would Power Coastal Green Hydrogen Plant, 17 July
The [environmental assessment] story is developing as the Innu Nation works its way through a feasibility study with Fortescue Future Industries, a division of Australian industrial giant Fortescue Metals Group, for a green hydrogen project attached to a proposed 2,250-GW hydropower project at Gull Island. It's a site on the Lower Churchill River in Labrador that provincial utility Nalcor has been touting [pdf] for its hydro potential for at least a decade.

Fortescue has been interested in Gull Island since April, 2020, and signed a memorandum of understanding with the Innu in October, 2021, SaltWire reported in January. "Fortescue is all about, and has, a singular mandate of producing green hydrogen and bringing a new energy pathway to the world that's not dependent on fossil fuels," said Stephen Appleton, the country's Canadian country manager.

The clock began ticking on the wind farm project June 21, when the four-member [?]
The Board may also establish "National Chapters", which shall serve to bring together a wide group of stakeholders at a national level to further the mission of the Foundation.[gh2_Acte constitutif.pdf (09.03.2022 Suisse):p 10/13]
World Energy GH2 partnership [?] filed a proposal with the Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Environment and Climate Change for the Port au Port-Stephenville Wind Power and Hydrogen Generation Project, Wreckhouse Weekly News reports. The wind farm, also known as Project Nujio'qonik GH2, would generate up to a gigawatt of electricity from a maximum 164 onshore turbines on the Port Au Port Peninsula, on Newfoundland's west coast. ... Provincial Energy Minister Andrew Parsons lifted a 15-year ban on onshore wind turbines April 5, just three days before federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault issued what one critic called a "slap in the face" to climate action by approving the [CAD] 9.4-billion Bay du Nord offshore oil and gas megaproject....
yahoo! CISION | Site of World Energy GH2's Pioneering Green Hydrogen Project to Host Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau, Germany's Chancellor Scholz and Corporate Leaders, 22 Aug
About World Energy GH2
World Energy GH2 is a subsidiary of World Energy which delivers solutions to those leading the push toward net-zero carbon transport. World Energy GH2's Project Nujio'qonik is a consortium of Canadian partners investigating the feasibility of the construction and operation of cost-effective green hydrogen/ammonia from wind power in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.
by Cat on Wed Aug 24th, 2022 at 02:58:14 PM EST
by Cat on Wed Aug 24th, 2022 at 08:54:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
AP | Fleet of hydrogen passenger trains begins service in Germany, 24 Aug
replacing 15 diesel trains that previously operated on non-electrified tracks in the state of Lower Saxony.

The 14 trains use hydrogen fuel cells to generate electricity that powers the engines. The German government has backed expanding the use of hydrogen as a clean alternative to fossil fuels.

State governor Stephan Weil said the 93-million-euro ($92 million) project was an "excellent example" for Lower Saxony's efforts to make its economy greener.

The trains manufactured by French company Alstom are operated by regional rail company LNVG on routes between the northern towns of Cuxhaven, Bremerhaven, Bremervoerde, and Buxtehude.

Alstom says the Coradia iLint trains have a range of up to 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) and a maximum speed of 140 kph (87 mph). By using hydrogen produced with renewable energy the trains will save 1.6 million liters (more than 422,000 gallons) of diesel fuel a year.

The project benefits from the support of the German Ministry of Economy and Mobility and the development of the Coradia iLint™ was funded by the German government as part of the Ntional Innovation Program for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology (NIP). ...
World's first hydrogen filling station for passenger trains. In Bremervorde, Germany ...
Alstom's Coradia iLint hydrogen train runs for the first time in France, 6 Sep 2021
Alstom's Coradia iLint train, the first in the world to be powered by hydrogen, took its first turns in France on the tracks of the Centre d'Essais Ferroviaires[1] in Valenciennes...
by Cat on Wed Aug 24th, 2022 at 11:28:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Platts decides to launch new daily hydrogen market report, 25 Aug
Commodity: Energy Transition, Petrochemicals
Region: Global
Subscriber note type: Methodology Note

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, has decided to launch Nov. 14 a dedicated daily market report for hydrogen.

The report will be called Platts Hydrogen Market Report and will feature existing and new hydrogen pricing along with relevant ammonia prices. It will also include summary of the topical hydrogen news of the day along with a commentary of the global hydrogen market. This will provide analysis of market fundamentals, trends and discuss the factors driving prices, thereby bringing better access to the market and greater transparency.

Note also, since 1 Aug Platts has systematically excluded volumes and pricing of "Russian-origin" materials, products, flagged vessels from European markets' indices. Prefatory explanation to subscriber notices includes "feedback from market participants and recent observed changes in trading practices", "Russian material does not constitute a typical flow and significant portion of supply", "not trading on the same basis as product from other origins". Similarly, S&P is discontinuing and re-classifying CFR Taiwan/China/Asia/Open oil and gas grades and petrochem commodity trading symbols. So. "Better access to the market and greater transparency" is actually degrading along geopolitical division of international "rules-based" order.
by Cat on Thu Aug 25th, 2022 at 01:34:46 PM EST
hydrogen cracking from
• water
• biomass gasification
• ammonia
• "clean coal"
• refined crude
• refined NG, LNG
• steel fab

European Corporate Observatory (CEO)

petrochemistry.eu | EU policy
euro-access.eu | Horizon Europe - Cluster 5 - Destination 2: Cross-sectoral solutions for the climate transition
EC | Hydrogen generation in Europe: Overview of key costs and benefit (2020) pdf (EN), 45 pp
EC | Hydrogen strategy, 2022 overview and EC | axonomy for sustainable activities, documents
S&P Global | EC set to decide hydrogen taxonomy emissions threshold by April 21: RHC, 2021
Baker McKenzie | RePowerEU, additionally Delegated Acts, July 2022

As a matter of principle, the notion of "renewable hydrogen" under the REDII and that of "sustainable hydrogen production activities" under the EU Taxonomy are distinct concepts subject to separate legal regimes. The advantages conferred on "renewable hydrogen" under EU and national laws are not necessarily applicable to hydrogen produced in a "sustainable" way under the EU Taxonomy, and vice versa. In particular, under the EU Taxonomy, the production of hydrogen -- and other hydrogen-based fuels -- can be deemed "sustainable" even if the energy used is not renewable, so long as such production meets the greenhouse gas emissions thresholds outlined in Section 3.10 of Annex I of the Climate Delegated Act under the Taxonomy Regulation.
archived hydrogen hub supply chain discipline Feb 2022
by Cat on Thu Aug 25th, 2022 at 06:29:08 PM EST
by Cat on Thu Aug 25th, 2022 at 07:25:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another study, this one for Australia:  

"A near 100 per cent renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage.... this simulation differs from the others in a couple of ways:  It uses actual generation and demand data rather than relying on synthetic traces for those quantities;  it is being conducted in near real-time..."
https:/reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewables-grid-is-well-within-reach-and-with-little -storage

Solar IS Civil Defense

by gmoke on Thu Aug 25th, 2022 at 07:08:41 PM EST
Jacobson et alia have continued their work and have roughly detailed analyses for most countries in the world to transition to 100% renewables:  http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/145Country/22-145Countries.pdf [pdf alert].

Solar IS Civil Defense
by gmoke on Fri Aug 26th, 2022 at 05:55:08 PM EST

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