Mon Mar 27th, 2023 at 08:53:53 AM EST
Fallacies of US Strategic Thinking
Sending VP Harris to Our African Friends
Role of South and developing world
G20: Ukraine War a Face-off USA vs Russia
Xi's 'Chilling' Remarks: A Multipolar World Offers Challenges and Opportunities to the Middle East and Africa
The very language of multipolarity has defined both countries' discourse for years, a discourse that was mostly inspired by the two countries' displeasure with US militarism from the Middle East to Southeast Asia; their frustration with Washington's bullying tactics whenever a disagreement arises, be it in trade or border demarcations; the punitive language; the constant threats; the military expansion of NATO and much more.
One month before the war, I argued with my co-writer, Romana Rubeo, that both Russia and China might be at the cusp of some kind of unity. That conclusion was drawn based on a simple discourse analysis of the official language emanating from both capitals and the actual deepening of relations.
At the time, we wrote,
"Some kind of an alliance is already forming between China and Russia. The fact that the Chinese people are taking note of this and are supporting their government's drive towards greater integration - political, economic and geostrategic - between Beijing and Moscow, indicates that the informal and potentially formal alliance is a long-term strategy for both nations".
Where basic assumptions are wrong and starting analysis has shortcomings, this article offers no benefit to its readers.
Four Contending U.S. Approaches to Multilateralism | Carnegie Endowment - Jan. 2023 |
This historical moment is defined by two countervailing trends, as described in the 2022 National Security Strategy issued by U.S. President Joe Biden's administration. The first is a profusion of transnational challenges that can only be addressed, mitigated, or resolved through collective action, such as climate change and pandemic disease. The second is a resurgence of geopolitical competition that hinders that very cooperation. The imperative for collective action has never been greater, yet the world remains, as United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres bemoans, "gridlocked in colossal global dysfunction."
Biden has turned the page on Trump's "America First" foreign policy, but the debate over alternative approaches to intergovernmental cooperation has just begun. Within the U.S. foreign policy establishment, four distinct models vie for primacy--and the administration's attention. The first is a charter conception of multilateralism, focused on the UN's model of universal membership. The second is a club approach, which seeks to rally established democracies as the foundation for world order. The third is a concert model, which seeks comity and joint action among the world's major powers. The fourth is a coalition approach, which would tailor ad hoc frameworks to each global contingency. Each of the so-called four Cs lays claim to a respective virtue: legitimacy, solidarity, capability, and flexibility.
Washington DC has set forth a domestic and foreign policy based on American national interests irrelevant of which party is sitting in the White House. George Bush period and Trump as Biden today, has a bullying tactic of so-called "diplomacy" based on a unipolar world. The NOW is based on old colonial premises and not on equal partnership for a common good. That is why the Ukraine War will be a permanent division between Western Atlanticists and the Far East China, India. Central Asia is up for grabs after the defeat and retreat by US Armed Forces in the dark of night leaving allies confused and betrayed. Leaving Afghanistan to the Taliban is not minor, but put a heavy burden on the future of Central Asia and is a major power shift.
Same for the "South" composed of the African and South American continent. During the Bush years and the ill-founded invasion and war in Iraq, I wrote of the large investments of China in the Southern Hemisphere. The backyard of the America's was taken for granted ever since the James Monroe Doctrine of colonialism. Times have changed,
US presidential powers were used by both Trump and Biden to keep "America Safe" by invoking the Defense Production Act to keep vaccines for Americans First and neglected close allies in Europe, India and the developing nations. Shameful acts.
A Hot War: Arms and Green Subsidies Race
Today on energy transition, Biden acted even worse by willingly let the Ukrainian conflict happen, put the European economy in a backslide, blowing up civilian infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, monopoly on LNG export, hitting France with cancellation submarine order of the century, blocked further cooperation of the Dutch ASML with their large customer in China. To add clarity who is the boss, the luring of industrial giants to the US with large subsidies is grand larceny and not a key element of multilateralism. Scavenger capitalism, admitting own shortcomings, a patchwork of foreign policy.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides $369 billion in green subsidies and tax credits aimed at cutting carbon emissions in half by 2030. But the IRA set off alarms in Europe over its violation of trade rules, forcing its governments to respond with plans for their own tax incentives and spending to keep green technology investments from relocating to the United States.
Big Oil Winning the War On Ukraine US Big Failures from Caspian Sea to Ukraine