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Crimea As Endgame Before Going M.A.D.

by Oui Mon Mar 6th, 2023 at 03:00:46 PM EST

Once blood flows and your buddy died, the pure motive of revenge  is a great motivator to continue war games.

Norms of Revenge by Jon Elster (1999)

Murdering their own ...

The Office of the President of Ukraine did not specify whether Kireyev's death was investigated or whether anyone was held responsible.

Collateral damage same as the one hundred massacred on the Maidan to make the coup d'état succeed.

So NATO and the EU-27 are back to January 2022 confronted by the choice of war or negotiations ... they lied and had already destroyed the option of the Minsk accords ..
they chose the path towards direct confrontation with Russia. Remember?

Dissenting voices were disposed of and a universal censorship was instituted for the Westen alliance in a belief of unity makes right ... usually it is the opposite, weakness in argument.

Russian Position Talks with US, NATO and OSCE | Jan. 14, 2022 |

Macron Urges EU Dialogue with Russia

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has described the remarks by German Navy Commander Kay-Achim Schönbach that Ukraine has lost temporarily occupied Crimea as categorically unacceptable and demanded that they be publicly refuted.

"The Crimean peninsula can be lost only in the imagination of the German vice admiral. Crimea will certainly return [to Ukraine] thanks to the persistent efforts of Ukraine and its partners who will show their determination in countering the aggressor state. In this regard, we need clarification from the German government on how the words of the Navy commander correlate with Germany's consistent support the Crimea Platform."

He added that the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry was "especially surprised to hear Mr. Schönbach's sentiments about the need to resume dialogue with Russia."

The Dutch scientists of making war also are scratching their heads we could be too optimistic about the outcome of war as the best defensive positions of UA are slowly but steadily taken by RF with major loss of lives on both sides ... will escalation open a window for a decisive blow towards victory?

Translation of military revelation by Rob de Wijk, our very own NATO expert and warmonger ... used to do science how to sustain peace in Europe @ Clingendael Institute.

I don't hear the word 'win' or 'victory' by any of the military. Notable difference with ministers [politicians]. Main option for Russia: occupation of the four oblasts or keep what it has now.

Military in Tartu: Despite losses, Russia can hold out for another year. They can deploy more people and equipment than the NATO countries can supply. After 5 years they will recover completely.

Tartu military conference on Russia

The Annual Conference on Russia
Russia's Futures | Tartu, Estonia - 2/3 March 2023 |

Panel III: Student Panel: Exploring Power beyond Nuclear Military Might

This student-led panel delves into the topic of power beyond nuclear military might. The emphasis is on the various alternative types of power used by Russia to achieve its objectives, such as conventional military, economic, diplomatic, and soft power. The students will engage in a lively discussion about the potential use of these different types of power in diverse regions, as well as how they might be effectively utilized. This discussion offers an opportunity to hear the thoughts of the future generation of leaders on this crucial issue. 

Panel IV: Russia's Military Resurgence - A Closer Reality Than Anticipated

This panel of specialists will evaluate Russia's military revival at its unprecedented losses in Ukraine and its consequences for global and regional security. The emphasis will be on the speed and scope of Russia's military revival, as well as its influence on the international community. The discussion will also dive into how Russia's military comeback might lead it to develop new capabilities, which will also include political and economic considerations. With tensions between Russia and the West still high, this panel offers a timely and critical evaluation of Russia's military capabilities.

Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies, Tartu University

The Routledge Handbook of Self-Determination and Secession (2023) is out 🖖 🤘. Glad to have contributed with my chapter on "Removing the Government of the Host State: Outside Military Intervention" 📓 📖

Defense lines of Bakhmut

    Robert M. Gates has served eight U.S. presidents in various capacities throughout his career, including as secretary of defense, director of the CIA and a member of the National Security Council.  Gates joins Washington Post foreign affairs columnist David Ignatius to discuss the path forward in Ukraine nearly one year after Russia's invasion, the international order and the geopolitical dynamics of the U.S.-China relationship.

Encompass the optimism of the New World

Sunak, Macron, and Scholz's reasoning, purportedly, is because they collectively do not believe Ukraine can decisively win on the battlefield, let alone militarily push Russian forces out of long held and entrenched positions in Crimea. If so, then this mentality, at its core, is defeatist in nature. It also lacks the intrepid leadership former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill brought to the Allied war effort throughout World War II in overcoming the near death-blow Chamberlain and Daladier's appeasement dealt the United Kingdom and France.

Old NATO's penchant for self-inflicted despair - what happened to Churchill's adage to "never despair?" - runs diametrically opposite to retired-U.S. Army Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges' military assessment. Hodges is adamant Ukraine can and "will win because it has the superior will" to fight. So too is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who has consistently militarily proven his critics and Putin wrong since day one when he refused a free ride out of town.

US generals Coming Out of the Woodwork

Yep ... just as when the Iraq War wasn't a smooth ride as the Pentagon (Rumsfeld) predicted, the old guard of generals and former CIA heads come to the rescue for a narrative the "deep state" wants throw out via the media. Above I covered John Brennan, I'm sure we'll hear from James Clapper and of course the hard-nosed generals will explain what's really needed to put Russia and Putin to rest. Trump will be described in all terms of being unfit for office to being an outright traitor to his country. Never mind his campaign promise: America First!

Funny: the retired US general Ben Hodges is now living in Frankfurt, Germany ..


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Mar 6th, 2023 at 10:45:23 PM EST
Asia Times commentator Stephen Bryen has accuratelyassessed that as Ukraine's position at Bakhmut collapses in the face of the Russian offensive, Kiev is plotting an assault on Russian-controlled Crimea. Even at full capacity, the Ukrainians would have found taking this hardened, Russian-controlled region tough to take. Under present conditions, any attempt by Ukraine to attack Crimea will result in total disaster for the West.

The Russians now have time on their side. Moscow does not have to negotiate. Ukraine is on the retreat and its forces are unlikely to be able to mount an effective offensive any time soon. Should the Ukrainians push to hit Crimea now, as they seem to be doing, their attack will fail.

Even if a miracle does happen in that potential battle for Crimea and Ukraine's forces make significant headway, the risk of nuclear reprisals from Russia will be at an all-time high.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Mar 6th, 2023 at 11:04:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are two key signals of a possible US-NATO change in strategy that are perceptible if we understand that NATO, at least so far, does what the US says it needs to do.

New deliveries of special types of long-range ammunition to Kiev are the first signal. The second is the publicized switch by Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland to favoring a refocus on retaking Crimea in a new Ukrainian offensive.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Mar 6th, 2023 at 11:05:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Demarcation line for temporary occupation by Russian forces to keep Ukraine from ever becoming a member of NATO ... creeping assault by the United Stares ... sovereignty of Kyiv, Brussels or EU is a fiction ... #unity #WeAreNato

[Zone occupée in the east and western and central part the Zone libre]

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Mar 7th, 2023 at 09:14:24 AM EST
Interview Euromaidan Press (EP) with Ben Hodges

Ukraine to liberate Crimea by end of August 2023 - Ben Hodges | Jan. 8, 2023 |

EP: Calls on Ukraine to enter the negotiations with Russia have resumed after Ukraine's successful counteroffensive in Kherson, most recently voiced by the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs Staff General Mark Milley. They are refused by Ukrainian officials. What would be the right for Ukraine to enter the negotiations with Russia if any, in your opinion?

Ben Hodges: After Crimea is liberated. [‼️] 🇺🇦 🇺🇦

EP: You said that Crimea would be liberated in August 2023, is that correct?

Ben Hodges: By the end of August, that is correct.

EP: How long do you think this war will last?

Ben Hodges: That I do not know, but Ukraine will never be secure or safe or able to rebuild its economy as long as Russia controls Crimea, so that is the key. Once Ukraine has Crimea back, then I think there would be so much internal friction inside the Kremlin that they would start eating themselves.

Living in Frankfurt Germany, leadership role in CEPA ...

Ben Hodges stressed that Kyiv must retake Crimea to preserve the "international rules-based order" and the "UN Charter." Hodges added that it is important for Ukrainian ports to maintain access to the Sea of Azov through Crimea. [Source: DW News]

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Mar 7th, 2023 at 04:47:58 PM EST
General Ben HODGES: "I expect Ukraine will liberate Crimea by the end of this summer" | Caucasian Journal - Jan. 21, 2023 |

Prior to joining Human Rights First, he held the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis(CEPA).  General Hodges serves as NATO Senior Mentor for Logistics, he consults for several companies on Europe, NATO, and the European Union, and he is co-author of the book Future War and the Defence of Europe, published by Oxford University Press.

CJ: What's your strategic view of 2023 for Ukraine? And how seriously does it depend on the internal situation in the U.S.?

Ben Hodges: I am confident that there will continue to be strong, bi-partisan support in the Congress for support to Ukraine, surely through the end of this year.  I therefore expect that the West and other partners will also continue to support Ukraine.  If we continue this, and if we provide the long-range systems Ukraine needs to isolate Crimea and render it untenable for Russian forces and which will enable them to deny sanctuary for Russian forces attacking civilian targets, then I expect Ukraine will liberate Crimea by the end of this summer.  And Crimea is the decisive terrain.

    Kyiv cannot accept any negotiated settlement which gives up Crimea, nor should the West.

CJ: Which scenario do you consider as a realistic end of war? And what is your view on the post-war settlement options? 

Ben Hodges: Decisive terrain for this war is Crimea.  Ukraine knows that they cannot settle for Russian retaining control of Crimea... They'll never be safe/secure or able to rebuild their economy so long as Russia retains Crimea. Therefore Kyiv cannot accept any negotiated settlement which gives up Crimea, nor should the West... If we are serious about the international rules-based order then we cannot allow the Kremlin to be rewarded for its illegal actions.  Additionally, war crimes tribunals should be established already.  Every level of Russian commander and authority should know that their names and crimes are already being catalogued.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Mar 7th, 2023 at 04:50:12 PM EST
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'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Mar 8th, 2023 at 01:49:24 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Mar 19th, 2023 at 01:21:36 PM EST

    PS no guarantee it is Vlad and not a double ... dna match?

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Mar 19th, 2023 at 02:16:18 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun Mar 19th, 2023 at 07:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Sun Mar 19th, 2023 at 11:30:29 PM EST
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Presumably: the American reconnaissance aircraft Boeing P-8 Poseidon was engaged in aiming drones at the military facilities of Dzhankoy.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Mar 20th, 2023 at 10:44:26 PM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Mar 20th, 2023 at 10:45:23 PM EST
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'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Mar 21st, 2023 at 08:51:00 AM EST
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