Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

NATO Posing the What If Question

by Oui Fri Jun 2nd, 2023 at 10:42:53 PM EST

Wishing a favorable outcome and throwing billions to make it happen may not be sufficient as the numbers game at the front just don't improve. The losses in manpower cannot be offset by more and sophisticated weapons. The terror strikes on Russian territory is one more indication the tide isn't turning in Ukraine's favor.

Military strategy is confused as too many diverse voices override one another. The armchair warmongers too are puzzled one the next strategy should be as not all ammunition and promised armor are ready for battlefield action.

Being ready from day one is quite different from a proces of escalation from one summit to the next. Unity is strong as any scepsis will only lead to a timely failure as Russia still occupies nearly 20% of Ukraine. Frustration on all sides in this waar is growing. Time is on the side of the aggressor.

Blinken in Finland to tell the world Putin has failed ...

Ukrainan suur­lähettiläs liikuttui Blinkenin puheesta: "Todella voimakas"

Ukrainan Suomen-suurlähettiläs Olga Dibrova pitää tärkeänä

BLINKEN's speech was a strong message for Ukraine. According to Dibrova, Blinken's message in his speech is that support for Ukraine will continue as long as the war continues.

- It was really important that Foreign Minister Blinken also emphasized this, says Dibrova and states that this message is often heard in Finland.

Dibrova believes that the full withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine, holding the perpetrators accountable and the return of Ukrainian children are goals that Ukraine's main allies share with the country.

According to the ambassador, the speech also emphasized the unity of the allies as Ukraine fights for its independence and the principles of the United Nations Charter.

- So that we don't end up in a chaotic, anarchic world, but in a rule-based system that protects every nation, country and person.

Speech by Secretary Blinken: "Russia's Strategic Failure and Ukraine's Secure Future"

Finns understood that if Russia violated the core principles of the UN Charter - sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence - if they did that in Ukraine, it will imperil their own peace and security as well.

We understood that, too.  That's why, over the course of 2021, as Russia ratcheted up its threats against Kyiv and amassed more and more troops, tanks, and planes on Ukraine's borders, we made every effort to get Moscow to de-escalate its manufactured crisis and resolve its issues through diplomacy.

President Biden told President Putin that we were prepared to discuss our mutual security concerns - a message that I reaffirmed repeatedly - including in person, with Foreign Minister Lavrov.  We offered written proposals to reduce tensions.  Together with our allies and partners, we used every forum to try to prevent war, from the NATO-Russia Council to the OSCE, from the UN to our direct channels.

Across these engagements, we set out two possible paths for Moscow: a path of diplomacy, which could lead to greater security for Ukraine, for Russia, for all of Europe; or a path of aggression, which would result in severe consequences for the Russian Government.

President Biden made clear that regardless of which path President Putin chose, we would be ready.  And if Russia chose war, we would do three things: support Ukraine, impose severe costs on Russia, and strengthen NATO while rallying our allies and partners around these goals.

As the storm clouds gathered, we surged military, economic, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.  First in August 2021, and again in December, we sent military equipment to bolster Ukraine's defenses, including Javelins and Stingers.  And we deployed a team from the U.S. Cyber Command to help Ukraine shore up its power grid and other critical infrastructure against cyber attacks.

We prepared an unprecedented set of sanctions, export controls, other economic costs to impose severe and immediate consequences on Russia in the event of a full-scale invasion.

We took steps to leave no doubt that we, and our Allies, would uphold our commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory.

Meanwhile the think tanks are putting in extra hours for a new strategy to combat Russia and deliver a resounding victory for the West.

Victory after Putin's death

Khodorkovsky in Bratislava: regime change in Moscow is only possible after Putin's death.

Many articles and diaries written on the adventures of Khodorkovsky ...

Related reading ...

Neocons sighted on the Thames | @BooMan by Colman on Nov 15, 2005 |

What If Question Discussed @GlobSec

General Shirreff in Bratislava: If Ukraine fails to meet its objectives, we must think about what to do: inevitably to join the fight. We suck ourselves into a war because we are committed to a victory for Ukraine. I agree.

Good meeting, but 'what if' questions are avoided: what if Ukraine does not win, if nuclear weapons are deployed, if a conflict with Taiwan breaks out, etc. These are, in my opinion, the questions policymakers should prepare for.

Ivo Daalder the true Russophobe has succeeded in a decades long battle for a military confrontation with Russia. Quite unfortunate Ukraine us used as a proxy and bleeds on its territory.

 Kerry Preaching Policy Contra Russia @Atlantic Council | Apr 30, 2014 |

Related reading ...

Stop the Pointless Demonization of Putin | The Natiion by Stephen F. Cohen on May 7, 2012 |

Decolonizing Russia --  A Moral and Strategic Imperative | CSCE Helsinki Commission |

Russia's barbaric war on Ukraine--and before that on Syria, Libya, Georgia, and Chechnya--has exposed the Russian Federation's viciously imperial character to the entire world. Its aggression also is catalyzing a long-overdue conversation about Russia's interior empire, given Moscow's dominion over many indigenous non-Russian nations, and the brutal extent to which the Kremlin has taken to suppress their national self-expression and self-determination.

Serious and controversial discussions are now underway about reckoning with Russia's fundamental imperialism and the need to "decolonize" Russia for it to become a viable stakeholder in European security and stability. As the successor to the Soviet Union, which cloaked its colonial agenda in anti-imperial and anti-capitalist nomenclature, Russia has yet to attract appropriate scrutiny for its consistent and oftentimes brutal imperial tendencies.

VDL on EU and NATO expansion this week

Storage of Russia's nuclear weapons

The Nuclear Sequence of the Belgorod Raid


'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Jun 2nd, 2023 at 10:50:56 PM EST
Croatia (fascist Ustaša movement), the country joined the Axis of Nazi Germany in WWII ...

True history of Jewish population from Austria, Croatia, West Ukraine, Galicia, Poland ...

Poland, Holocaust and History Revisionism

Europe a piecemeal puzzle of historic power centra suffering for centuries ... debt of grievances appears in hate and more wars on the European continent. Better to have an ugly status quo to heal differences than once again bloodshed beyond our imagination.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:14:16 AM EST

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:50:12 AM EST
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In any war, but especially between brothers in a complex civil war of a divided nation, there are no victors. How many opposition voices will Ukrainians execute, torture or imprison? Forced conscription to bleed in the trenches in the onslaught of another dirty war in Europe.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:50:45 AM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:51:25 AM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:51:50 AM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:52:19 AM EST
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There has been much talk and reporting of the coming Spring counteroffensive by Ukraine forces, but with the fight for Bakhmut not going so well for Kiev, there's also been talk of the need for compromise, at a moment Ukrainian casualties in the east are believed to be high.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:53:20 AM EST

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:54:00 AM EST
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For far too long, the responsible leadership has forgotten which HQ lies in Brussels running the show: NATO or EU-28 -27. Lost the UK as demise sets in.

Even Macron's rhetoric sounds hollow after he was the last leader standing for diplomacy to avert war.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:56:01 AM EST
wut done it. What other plausible explanation?
by Cat on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 12:20:37 PM EST

Don't agree with b's conclusion ... situation on both sides is very grave in respect to loss of life for a bloody stalemate with no option for a ceasefire, peace or start of a negotiated end of this bloody war in trenches. The EEC was founded on the principle: "Never Again".

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:47:01 PM EST
What the Ukrainian Armed Forces Need to Do to Win | War on the Rocks |

During training exercises, we have repeatedly observed that the Ukrainian military's planning process requires separate orders for each phase of the operation. For example, a battalion in the defense cannot conduct a counterattack even if they are attacked. They do not have potential stand-by missions such as "be prepared to counterattack" that are planned in advance to exploit unexpected opportunities. They must await orders. Of course, the Ukrainian military's planning process is based on local doctrine, and in actual combat, it depends upon the commander. However, what we have observed is that there are serious changes happening throughout the Ukrainian military's officer corps. The younger officers realize that they must get rid of the old mentality but continue to face resistance from older officers wedded to Soviet doctrine and centralized planning. Michael Kofman and Rob Lee made similar observations after their most recent research trip to the country.

Having trained every component of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, we have continually seen a lack of an experienced noncommissioned officer corps. It is common to see field grade officers running around during training counting personnel and coordinating for meals. In the United States, it takes years to develop just a junior noncommissioned officer. Senior noncommissioned officers at the platoon level have at least ten years of experience. In the U.S. military, lieutenants lead platoons, but it is the job of the platoon sergeant to train them, as discussed in Defense News. In Ukraine, it is the job of a platoon commander straight out of their service academy to lead and train their platoon. Without effective noncommissioned officers, mission command at the company level and below is almost impossible to do, and they are directly responsible for the care, mentoring, and training of soldiers.

Lack of Effective Training

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' current training philosophy is based on the old Soviet model. Large-scale battalion-level training is orchestrated and choreographed. During several exercises, we witnessed company commanders overseeing the exercise from afar and only occasionally interjecting. They were acting more as observers than direct participants. This philosophy is changing and, as noted in the  Russia Contingency, appears to be generational. Younger officers are more open to Western military-style leadership, while older officers have clung to Soviet doctrine. Despite these tendencies, we have yet to see any true combined arms training involving infantry, artillery, and armor working together. Synchronizing all these different elements to achieve maximum military effect, avoid fratricide, and confuse the enemy's takes repeated training at all levels of command, which allows leaders to make mistakes and work through processes.


As noted in these virtual pages, there are several volunteer organizations training the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Most of this training's focus is on basic soldier skills at the company or platoon level. The training is disjointed and haphazard, and the quality of instruction varies. NATO is training select units and soldiers outside of Ukraine. While this training can be effective and necessary for certain specialty skills, such as tank crews and HIMARS teams, it takes units and soldiers away from the front line for weeks, if not months, at a time. Commanders cannot afford to lose units and soldiers for extended periods.  

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:47:49 PM EST
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< wipes tears >
by Cat on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 09:53:32 PM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:49:00 PM EST
,,Das ist Mord!": Scholz verteidigt Ukraine-Politik nach ,,Kriegstreiber"-Rufen

,,Kriegstreiber", ,,Hau ab!", ,,Frieden schaffen ohne Waffen", riefen sie ihm zu: Bei einem SPD-Europafest in Falkensee sah sich Olaf Scholz mit Störern konfrontiert. Der Kanzler ließ sich nicht niederbrüllen - und machte deutlich, was er von den Rufern hält.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:50:01 PM EST
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Olaf Scholz at the state party conference SPD Lower Saxony

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by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:52:33 PM EST
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"Putin imperialism" is nonsensical and ludicrous juxtaposed to the EU "enlargement" campaign here, there, and everywhere.
by Cat on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 10:00:16 PM EST
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Germany's far-right AfD sees poll numbers surging

Polls see Germany's center-left coalition government in free fall while the far-right populist AfD is reaping the benefits. It currently polls on par with Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats.

German poll vs. election results Bundestag (..%)

CDU   29   (24.1)
SPD   18   (25.7)
AfD   18   (10.3)
Greens   15   (14.8)
FDP   7    (11.5)
Total  40%  (52%)

Distribution of seats in the 20th German Bundestag

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 3rd, 2023 at 08:54:54 PM EST
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No pretense, unmasked Mark Rutte shows his true face ... rightwing extremist ... brother of Boris and Mateusz ... ALDE group in EU parliament.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 4th, 2023 at 09:41:15 AM EST
A Year of dealing with Brexit and before Covid-19 Pandemic ... readiness.

The European Council in 2019
Overview of dynamics, discussions and decisions

Relations with China dominated the European Council's discussion of external affairs, at least in the first half of the year; the troublesome behaviour of Russia and Turkey also attracted the European Council's attention. A discussion at the October European Council about whether to open accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia proved surprisingly divisive, with President Macron leading the charge against and also calling for a reconsideration of EU enlargement policy. This drew attention to the challenge for the EU of dealing with the western Balkans and of managing the accession of new Member States.

De politie Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was another leading member of the European Council whose domestic political position in 2019 seemed tenuous. Moreover, Prime Minister Rutte's influence in the EU was potentially weakened by Brexit, because of the impending departure of a large Member State with which the Netherlands has traditionally been close on a range of institutional and policy issues. Far from retreating in the face of these developments, Prime Minister Rutte seemed to move closer to the centre stage of EU affairs in 2019. He used the opportunity of giving the keynote 'Churchill' speech in Zurich in early February to assert himself and his country as leading players within the EU.

    As it happens, I'm having that sensation right now, because I stand here on truly historic ground, in the very hall where Sir Winston Churchill delivered his famous speech on the future of Europe in 1946. As a history graduate and a great admirer of Churchill, I am deeply honoured to be following in his footsteps. 

    Three years later actor Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 too would make the Churchill analogy WTF 😡

By all accounts, Prime Minister Rutte was especially outspoken within the European Council on important issues such as Brexit, EU external relations and the next MFF. He was particularly critical of countries that were not meeting the deficit and debt rules for eurozone membership, for which he was criticised in the Netherlands for what some saw as an obsession with Italy's precarious fiscal position.

Then, on March 5, 1946, at Westminster College in Fulton, Churchill's famous words "From Stettin in the Baltic, to Trieste in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the continent," ushered in the Cold War and framed the geo-political landscape for the next 50 years.

What about the historic first use of atomic warfare by the obliteration of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in August 1945? Sending a message that endures till this day. Act on it.

Key words | South Africa Boer War concentration camps | Dardanelles defeat | British Mesopotamia campaign 1923-25 | Lethal gas RAF Air Control Iraq |

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by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 4th, 2023 at 09:42:50 AM EST
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by Cat on Sun Jun 4th, 2023 at 11:05:06 AM EST
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h/t Cat ... from Newsroom June 2023

"Ukraine won't attend NATO summit without 'signal' on accession: Zelensk*"

Simple ... keep your end of the bargain ...WIN the war and reconquer all territory.

Peace can only be reached through military might. 🤥

By its conception, how it should have moved forward ...

 NATO Address by Lithuanian President - 16 Oct. 1996

But no, the Empire decided to call the Russian Federation a pariah state that needed to be taken out. Stop the bloodshed you moron.

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by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 4th, 2023 at 01:28:33 PM EST
    Senator Schumer said the intelligence community was very angry at the President Trump and has "six ways from Sunday" to get back at him, Schumer clearly threatens the president-elect.

... and actors employed in the Obama/Biden cabal serving "Us the Elites" in nation's Capitol.

From my diary and the many follow-ups 😠 ...

British Intelligence Delivers Another 'Dodgy Dossier' | Posted by Oui @BooMan on Jan 12, 2017 |

I was quite straightforward about my opinion and had no qualms about the bull$hit contrary to fellow bloggers at the pond.

Intel chiefs presented Trump with claims of Russian efforts to compromise him | CNN "DisInfo" Campaign - Jan. 12, 2017 |

Classified documents presented last week to President Obama and President-elect Trump included allegations that Russian operatives claim to have compromising personal and financial information about Mr. Trump, multiple US officials with direct knowledge of the briefings tell CNN.

The allegations were presented in a two-page synopsis that was appended to a report on Russian interference in the 2016 election. The allegations came, in part, from memos compiled by a former British intelligence operative, whose past work US intelligence officials consider credible. The FBI is investigating the credibility and accuracy of these allegations, which are based primarily on information from Russian sources, but has not confirmed many essential details in the memos about Mr. Trump.

The classified briefings last week were presented by four of the senior-most US intelligence chiefs - Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, FBI Director James Comey, CIA Director John Brennan, and NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers.

One reason the nation's intelligence chiefs took the extraordinary step of including the synopsis in the briefing documents was to make the President-elect aware that such allegations involving him are circulating among intelligence agencies, senior members of Congress and other government officials in Washington, multiple sources tell CNN.

These senior intelligence officials also included the synopsis to demonstrate that Russia had compiled information potentially harmful to both political parties, but only released information damaging to Hillary Clinton and Democrats.

This synopsis was not an official part of the report from the intelligence community case about Russian hacks, but some officials said it augmented the evidence that Moscow intended to harm Clinton's candidacy and help Trump's, several officials with knowledge of the briefings tell CNN.

The two-page synopsis also included allegations that there was a continuing exchange of information during the campaign between Trump surrogates and intermediaries for the Russian government, according to two national security officials.

Five-Eyes Wanted to Rid America of Trump | June 18, 2022 |

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by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 4th, 2023 at 01:32:19 PM EST

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by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 4th, 2023 at 01:33:45 PM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 4th, 2023 at 07:34:43 PM EST
On the counteroffensive, Petraeus said:

I think that this counteroffensive is going to be very impressive.

My sense is that they will achieve combined arms effects in other words, they will successfully carry out combined arms operations where you have engineers that are breaching the obstacles and diffusing the minefields and so forth; armour following right on through protected by infantry against anti-tank missiles; air defence keeping the Russians aircraft off them; electronic warfare jamming their radio networks; logistics right up behind them; artillery and mortars right out in front of them.

And most important of all ... is that as the lead elements inevitably culminate after 72-96 hours, physically that's about as far as you can go, and they'll have taken losses ... you have follow-on units that will push right on through and capitalise on the progress and maintain the momentum and I think that can get the entire Russian defence in that area moving, then I think you have other opportunities that will open up on the flanks as well.

Has become a textbook general ...

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by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 4th, 2023 at 09:53:44 PM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jun 5th, 2023 at 01:59:06 PM EST
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by Cat on Mon Jun 5th, 2023 at 11:06:51 PM EST
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'We'll get there': the Ukrainian drone unit quietly knocking out Russian targets | The Guardian |

Ukrainian commanders say the term counteroffensive is overused. They talk instead of a "spring-summer military campaign", stretching into September, and probably well beyond. This campaign appears to have entered a new active phase. It is too early to say if it will succeed.

Ukraine's armed forces have seemingly launched probing attacks, in an attempt to find weaknesses and to break through Russian lines. The main push is yet to come. Kyiv's strategic objective is to sever Russia's land corridor in the south of Ukraine.

That means decoupling the occupied parts of the eastern Donbas from Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, along the left bank of the Dnipro River.

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by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jun 5th, 2023 at 05:12:30 PM EST
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On March 12, 2023, Russia's Proton-M rocket launched the Olymp-K-2 military satellite, also known as Luch-5X, from Site 200/39 at Baikonur Cosmodrome. The Olymp-K satellites are Russian geostationary satellites built for the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian intelligence agency FSB.

On November 2, 2022, Russia launched a Soyuz rocket carrying a military satellite into space, also with 3 inspector satellites.

On August 1, 2022, a Russian satellite, dubbed Kosmos 2558, was launched on a Russian Soyuz-2.1v rocket. It is apparently destined for life as a spy satellite, and its current orbital path could soon place it in proximity to what is reported to be the spy satellite designated USA-326.

On October 21, 2022, Russia launched two more classified military satellites to orbit. Also, there are 4 other satellites aimed at Earth observation that could be of a dual-use.

It is just a usual propaganda that RF has no fresh and useful assets in space.

Posted by: whirlX @MoA | Jun 5 2023 |

Russian strategic space forces launch dates

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by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jun 5th, 2023 at 05:41:30 PM EST
Breaking News: Zelenskyy spring/summer offensive breaking the silence 🥹

Please spread UA Disinformation and War Propaganda only!

NATO and the EU of VDL-Borrell-Michel demand total censorship (1984)

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 09:12:28 AM EST

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 09:13:17 AM EST
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Moscow Times is biased pro-West and has re-located to Amsterdam.

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 12:46:25 PM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 09:20:38 AM EST
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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 09:29:35 AM EST
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Dnieper River topographic map, Large and smal reservoirs of Ukraine

The Dnieper Cascade (6 dam controlled current) flows SOUTH to the mouth of the Dnieper into the Black Sea. As far as I know, no NATO press disputes UA  control and operation of all dams UPSTREAM of Kakhovka. More significant, none have acknowledged Cascade infrastructure over the course of the war, "threats" to the ZNPP, or even now that the Kakhovka Dam has "collapsed". Accordingly, the "vulnerability" and sudden of its collapse is a mystery to ignorant G7 war-crime spectators who have dismissed Crimean "victims" of UA.gov "aggression" or have been deprived of factual UA artillary battles and administrative prerogatives for control of the liberation of "Kherson" (city, oblast, or region), of which G7 featured Novo Kakhovka and Oleshky, one of sundry villages planted by generations of Ukrainians in marsh reclaimed by Kakhovka Dam.

Construction of the Dnieper Cascade of river dams and reservoirs started UPSTREAM in Kiev and ended DOWNSTREAM at Nova Kakhovka. The Middle Dnieper Dam in Kamianske and Dnieper Dam in Zaporizh* are UPSTREAM from Novo Kakhovka. The length of Kamianske Reservoir between these two dams is 114 km. (The ZNPP and ZTPP in Enero*har on the Kakhovka Reservoir are located ~ 50 km DOWNSTREAM from the Middle River Dam, which UA controls, ~ 80 km UPSTREAM from the Kakhovka Dam.) Note that Ukraine government controls the highland (meters) on the "right"-west bank of the Dnieper; this position provides UA offensive and defensive military advantages which the RF cannot overcome, having arrived in Kherson with minimal land force in from the east the first place. Hence, retreat with "pro-Kremlin" civilians further inland east in November 2022 and fortified artilitary posture controlling the Kinburn Spit further DOWNSTREAM.

The length of the Kakhovka Reservoir (shown as a 18 m surface mass) between the Dnieper Dam and DOWNSTREAM Kakhovka Dam in Novo Kakhovka is 129 km. The area south of the dam in Novo Kakhovka is the natural Dnieper "delta," mediated by Cascade construction 1950-1980s.

Kakhovka Reservoir contains the largest volume of water of the Cascade, BECAUSE the Kakhovka Dam (detail shown below) is the DOWNSTREAM terminal location of Cascade run-off that is not diverted from UPSTREAM reservoirs to inland leased reservoirs for HPPs agricultural irrigation. Ukrhydroenergo had built up high Kakhovka Reservoir levels from which it pump water into the North Crimean Canal until 2014.

by Cat on Sun Jun 11th, 2023 at 01:13:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and decorative geography

Guardian: "Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River lies about 20 miles (30km) east of the city of Kherson."

by Cat on Sun Jun 11th, 2023 at 09:35:52 PM EST
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Floods as war weapons - Humans caused a third of floods in past 500 years in SW Netherlands

During the Eighty Years' War, as the Spanish army fought to recapture territory in what is now northern Belgium and southwestern Netherlands in the late sixteenth century, the Dutch rebels led by William of Orange decided to use the low-lying, flood-prone landscape to their advantage. In an attempt to liberate Bruges, Ghent and Antwerp from Spanish dominance and defend their territory, the rebels destroyed seawalls at strategic places from 1584 to 1586 to cause deliberate, large-scale floods.

"The plan got completely out of hand," says de Kraker, an assistant professor at the VU University Amsterdam in the Netherlands. "It came at the expense of the countryside of northern Flanders, now Zeeland Flanders, some two thirds of which was flooded."

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 12:37:07 PM EST
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ZELENSK*: See you in Vilnius, Chuck!

by Cat on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 02:32:27 PM EST
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WAR IN UKRAINE - Investigations on the Nord Stream and of the Kakhovka dam destructions: follow up Q&A | EU Press briefing |

Helluva job to be spokesperson representing the VDL-Michel-Borrell cabal in Brussels. Openness and transparency ... learn more from species of birds in a dense jungle you know. 😊

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by Oui (Oui) on Fri Jun 9th, 2023 at 02:10:03 PM EST
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    Overnight on Tuesday, Ukrainian troops delivered a strike on the power generating facility presumably using an Olkha multiple-launch rocket system. The bombardment destroyed valves and caused uncontrolled dumping of water downstream. The flood zone may affect 80 residential communities.

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 10:20:29 AM EST
If it diminishes fighting, the dam burst will save lives. Start talks to end this war ... back to December 2021 - January 2022.

Stop he fu*king wars! For sake of humanity and the planet, work towards peace, not war ... read the UN Charter. Never Again.

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 10:21:23 AM EST
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Is it even realistic to blow up the dam? | Pravda UA - Oct. 20, 2022 |

Not only Ukraine's Defence Intelligence chief but also the military and local authorities speak cautiously about the possibility of the destruction of such a huge reinforced concrete structure as the Kakhovka Dam.

In favour of its strength, the dam structure is still standing after several missile strikes on the Kakhovka Bridge, launched by Ukrainian forces [so as to make the Russian troops withdraw from the area - ed.], and the bridge is still being used by the occupiers.

"The dam is really built with military actions in mind - it is a capital structure with a margin of safety. It is very difficult to destroy it from the outside, it would probably be necessary to use tactical nuclear weapons to do it. But if there is access to this infrastructure, which is the case with the Russian troops, then it could be undermined from the inside.

The weapons currently used by the Ukrainian military [i.e. destroying bridges and crossings in the occupied territories - UP] are not enough," says Yurii Sobolevsky, Deputy Head of Kherson Oblast Council.

Vasyl Opanasyuk, an explosive ordnance engineer, notes that if 5-6 tonnes of TNT (which fits in one truck) was detonated, it would only create a five-metre large hole in the dam. Water would simply flow through it.

It would take at least ten such trucks to damage the dam seriously. After that, the structure may begin to collapse under the pressure of the water.


Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, has said that if the hydroelectric power station is blown up, Crimea could be left without water for 10-15 years, possibly forever.

Ukrainian Activists Draw Attention To Little-Known WWII Tragedy | RFERL - Aug. 23, 2013 |

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by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 01:15:36 PM EST

Dnieper dam blown up by Russians: 'To save it from Nazi bandits' - 29 August 1941 | The Guardian |

The Russians have blown up the Dnieper dam at Zaporizhzhia, which feeds the Dneprostroi power plant, and have evacuated Dnepropetrovsk, the great industrial centre of Ukraine.

Mr Lozovsky, the Soviet spokesman, told the press last night: We blew up the Dnieper dam so as not to allow this first child of the Soviet five-year Plan (1932) to fall into the hands of Hitler's bandits. All measures were taken so as not to permit the Germans to make use of the dam and machinery.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 02:53:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a good goshdarn thing errybuddy (abduct | forcibly deport | evacute) civilians from Kherson last autumn after the SHAM REFERENDUMS.
archived Wed May 10th 2023, Sun Nov 20th 2022, Antonivskyy Bridge, Wed Nov 9th 2022, Oct 31st 2022, Mon Oct 3rd 2022, Wed Oct 19th, 2022, Fri Sep 30th 2022, Tue Sep 27th 2022, Sham Referendums

And now words from Sun Tzu for the general on the march who perceives victory in calamity.

1. Sunzi said: We come now to the question of encamping the army, and observing signs of the enemy. Pass quickly over mountains, and keep in the neighborhood of valleys. Camp in high places, facing the sun. Do not climb heights in order to fight. So much for mountain warfare. After crossing a river, you should get far away from it. When an invading force crosses a river in its onward march, do not advance to meet it in mid-stream. It will be best to let half the army get across, and then deliver your attack. If you are anxious to fight, you should not go to meet the invader near a river which he has to cross. Moor your craft higher up than the enemy, and facing the sun. Do not move up-stream to meet the enemy. So much for river warfare. In crossing salt-marshes, your sole concern should be to get over them quickly, without any delay. If forced to fight in a salt-marsh, you should have water and grass near you, and get your back to a clump of trees. So much for operations in salt-marches. In dry, level country, take up an easily accessible position with rising ground to your right and on your rear, so that the danger may be in front, and safety lie behind. So much for campaigning in flat country. These are the four useful branches of military knowledge which enabled the Yellow Emperor to vanquish four several sovereigns.

2. All armies prefer high ground to low and sunny places to dark. If you are careful of your men, and camp on hard ground, the army will be free from disease of every kind, and this will spell victory. When you come to a hill or a bank, occupy the sunny side, with the slope on your right rear. Thus you will at once act for the benefit of your soldiers and utilize the natural advantages of the ground. When, in consequence of heavy rains up-country, a river which you wish to ford is swollen and flecked with foam, you must wait until it subsides. Country in which there are precipitous cliffs with torrents running between, deep natural hollows, confined places, tangled thickets, quagmires and crevasses, should be left with all possible speed and not approached. While we keep away from such places, we should get the enemy to approach them; while we face them, we should let the enemy have them on his rear. If in the neighborhood of your camp there should be any hilly country, ponds surrounded by aquatic grass, hollow basins filled with reeds, or woods with thick undergrowth, they must be carefully routed out and searched; for these are places where men in ambush or insidious spies are likely to be lurking.

by Cat on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 03:17:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Autocrats Prefer a Cold War?

The first theoretical tool deployed in support of Sun Tzu's quote is the assertion that autocrats rely on irregular means because it is not in their interest to see a cold war escalate into a hot one. Yet war is equally not in the interest of democracies.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 03:48:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
< wipes tears >

Re-imagine a trap without ever having studied its depth.

by Cat on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 07:40:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The most dangerous ... think VietCong and jungle.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Tue Jun 6th, 2023 at 08:05:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Shhh ... in battle stay silent ... first lesson offered by Sun Tzu

"Likely Many Deaths" In Ukraine Dam Destruction: White House

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jun 7th, 2023 at 11:25:30 AM EST
The United States "cannot say conclusively what happened at this point," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jun 7th, 2023 at 11:27:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Department of State Press Briefing - June 6, 2023 | Vedant Patel, Principal Deputy Spokesperson |


With that, Matt, go ahead.

QUESTION: Thanks, Vedant. I want to start with Ukraine, even though I have, like, zero hope that you're going to have an answer, considering what just happened at the White House briefing. What's your understanding of what happened with this dam?

MR PATEL: So, we've been closely monitoring the impacts of the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, which has triggered massive flooding in Ukraine and resulted in the evacuation of thousands of Ukrainians. As our colleagues at the White House said, we have seen the reports that Russia was responsible for the explosion at the dam, which Russia forces took illegally last year, and we have been continuing to monitor. We can't say conclusively what happened at this point, but we will share more information when we can.

What continues to be very clear, though, is that the damage to the Ukrainian people that they've endured and to the region will continue to be significant. We continue to be in touch with our Ukrainian partners - and our offer to how we may be able to provide assistance to the many Ukrainians who have been displaced.

QUESTION: When you say it's inconclusive, does that mean that you cannot rule out that it might have been an accident?

MR PATEL: We are actively working to determine what happened, and hope to have more information soon. I'm just not going to speculate from here.

QUESTION: Can you - I'm not asking you to speculate, but when you say it's inconclusive, does that mean that you've decided that it - or you have come to the conclusion that it could have been accidental?

MR PATEL: Again, Matt, we're working to determine what happened. But I think the important thing is that Russia started this war, and it was Russia that --

QUESTION: Well, that means everything - so anything could have happened? Right?

MR PATEL: -- occupied this area of Ukraine, and it was Russia that was in control of this dam. Again, I don't have a conclusive assessment to offer you from up here.

QUESTION: Okay. But I don't understand - so that means that it is still a possibility, according to what you know, at the moment, that it was accidental?

MR PATEL: Again, we are - I think we're basically saying the same thing, Matt. We are actively trying to determine what happened.

QUESTION: No, we're not saying the same thing. I'm saying - I'm asking you if you think --

MR PATEL: I think we are. I'm saying that --

QUESTION: -- that it's still a possibility - if there's still - if there's a possibility that it was an accident. And you're not saying that; you're saying it was inconclusive, and refusing to say that it's possible it was an accident.

MR PATEL: We are trying to determine what happened.

QUESTION: All right.

MR PATEL: Of course, that could be a possibility. But we are trying to determine what happened.

QUESTION: Ah, okay. Thank you.

MR PATEL: Again, but I don't have a steer to offer from up here.

QUESTION: Thank you.

QUESTION: Could I just follow --

MR PATEL: Shaun, go ahead.

QUESTION: Just real briefly. When you say you're trying to - and not you, personally, but that the United States is trying to assess what happened, what means are going into this? Is there - are there discussions with Ukrainians? Is there remote assessment? I mean, how - what level of --

MR PATEL: Of course. There's close coordination and collaboration with our Ukrainian partners, as well as other regional partners - as well, into assessments into what happened. I'm certainly not going to go into how we are assessing and analyzing this intelligence or assessing what unfolded, but that work continues to be ongoing.

QUESTION: And just - I know this veers a little bit into the hypothetical, but in terms of what the repercussions would be, I mean, how big of a deal was this if this were a deliberate act of sabotage?

MR PATEL: I'm just not going to speculate or hypothesize, Shaun. We are actively working to determine what happened, and we hope to share more information soon. The important thing to remember, though, that it was in fact Russia that started this war. It was Russia that was occupying this area, and it was Russia that was in control of the dam. So we continue to be in touch with Ukrainian authorities, and how we may be able to offer assistance to the many Ukrainians who have been displaced and forced to flee.

QUESTION: Same topic.

MR PATEL: Same topic?

QUESTION: A follow-up on this?

MR PATEL: Yeah, go ahead.

QUESTION: Has the Secretary been in touch with his Ukrainian counterpart yet?

MR PATEL: So, the Secretary speaks to Foreign Minister Kuleba quite regularly. We, of course, are also in touch with our Ukrainian partners quite regularly. I don't have a specific call to read out. But we have been in close coordination with our Ukrainian partners through our embassy in Kyiv and Ambassador Brink and others, and we'll continue to do so.


QUESTION: Minister Kuleba said today that by not going out exclusively denouncing Russian action, Western media actors might put on the same foot propaganda and the facts. Don't you --

MR PATEL: Who said that?

QUESTION: Minister Kuleba.


QUESTION: Said that by not calling it out, you might put - you might give some room for propaganda. Are you not --

MR PATEL: Alex - Alex, we have at every turn of this conflict - I and the others who brief from this podium have called out illegal and unjust Russian actions - not just in Ukraine but in the region broadly when they have happened. As I have said, as it relates to this specific incident, we're continuing to assess what has happened, and we're working to determine that, and we will share any information that we can. But I take issue with the characterization that we have not called out Russia for many of its malign and illegal activities as it relates to Ukraine.

Hudson, go ahead.

QUESTION: (Inaudible) to basically assess --

MR PATEL: I'm going to - I'm going to --

QUESTION: Just one last question.


QUESTION: Basically, assess it. Well, Russia controls the land and also the dam. How do you assess? Do you assess the consequences of it, or do you collect the facts in a way that we have no idea of --

MR PATEL: This is a process that's ongoing, Alex. We're doing so in coordination with our Ukrainian partners and others on the ground. And when we have more information to share, I am certain that we will.

John, go ahead.

QUESTION: Just quickly, Kirby did make a reference to an explosion. Is it possible to confirm if the U.S. has assessed if it was an explosion rather than a breach at the dam?

MR PATEL: I have no reason to say anything different from what the admiral said, but I'm happy to check in and see if there's some specific assessment that we can offer.

QUESTION: Does that mean it does appear to have been an explosion?

MR PATEL: Again, our understanding is that there were reports of an explosion. There were some reports that - also that Russia was responsible. But again, we can't say conclusively what happened, and that is still assessment - those assessments are still ongoing.

QUESTION: On the same topic.

MR PATEL: Okay. Go ahead.

QUESTION: Have you seen the reports from The Washington Post back in December that the Ukrainians were actually firing HIMAR missiles into this dam as part of a potential strategy to flood the region so that Russia could not advance? So, is there any - have you seen those reports?

MR PATEL: I've not seen those reports, but - so I don't have anything to offer on that.

QUESTION: Are you aware of that strategy in general?

MR PATEL: I don't have anything to offer on that.

Anything else on this topic before we move away? Go ahead, in the back.

QUESTION: Mr. Patel, Igor Naymushin from RIA Novosti, thank you. So, don't you think that the recent developments in Ukraine, including Kakhhovka power plant attack is a reasonable - is an important reason to arrange a call between Secretary Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov?

MR PATEL: To say what?

QUESTION: To discuss the recent - the developments in Ukraine, as they haven't talked for about two months.

MR PATEL: Our message to Foreign Minister Lavrov and to any Russian official has been pretty clear, and we have been pretty clear in all of those readouts. They are: You should leave Ukraine. You should free Paul Whelan, and you should free Evan Gershkovich. And you should immediately withdraw your forces in your illegal and unjust invasion into Ukraine.

QUESTION: So, no plans to arrange --

MR PATEL: We've been very clear in our messaging to Russian officials. Anything else on this topic before we move away? On this topic, Janne, or something else? Okay. That's the - when I say on this topic - go ahead.

QUESTION: Thank you.

Great briefing ... reporters briefing Mr. Patel on developments past, present and future in Ukraine ... keeping each other busy each day. An American audience ... C-Span video

ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jun 7th, 2023 at 11:32:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
2 days ago: G7 tabloids came out of the EU Stoltenberg GATE, declaring that dam destruction is another Russian WAR CRIME.
• no casualty INCLUDING CHILDREN or property loss numbers
• no reference to UAF 2022 offensive in Kherson
• no reference to UA.gov WAR CRIME depriving "their own people" of the "mostly mooslim" Tartar persuasion in Crimea of water, 2014-2022

1 day ago: G7 tabloids tack to floating Russian mines,  ECOCIDE, dry canal to Crimea, threat of nuclear catastrophe 100 miles away at ZNPP, and spirits of  "New Kakhhovka" families on roofs awaiting rescue | deportation | evacuation—from WHOM, anonymous people dare not speculate

0 day: It was an ACCIDENT. a TSUNAMI. maybe. idunno. We've been clear, says US State Dept stooge, flapping a ISW "non-paper".


by Cat on Wed Jun 7th, 2023 at 04:07:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"left" or "right" bank?
by Cat on Wed Jun 7th, 2023 at 04:11:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Wed Jun 7th, 2023 at 04:15:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

CAPTION: Ukrainian security forces [looking to] transport local residents at a flooded area in Kherson
EXCLUSIVE: Ukrainian president says dead bodies are floating in floodwater from the Nova Kakhovka dam.

"As soon as our helpers try to rescue them, they are shot at," Zelensk* said, referring to efforts to reach residents of towns on the Russian-occupied  bank of the Dnipro River, which has been inundated with floodwater after blasts partially destroyed the dam on Tuesday. The floodwaters threaten 80 settlements on both the Ukrainian-held ["right"] and Russian-occupied ["left"] sides of the river, according to Kyiv.

"People, animals have died," Zelensk* said. "From the roofs of the flooded houses, people see drowned people floating by. You can see that on the other side. It's very hard to get people out of the occupied part of Kherson region. When our [security] forces try to get them out [of the occupied part of Kherson], they are shot at by occupiers from a distance."

He added: "We won't be able to see all the consequences for a few a few days, when the water has trickled down [?] a bit."

[machine translation]
Our source in the OP said that the General Staff simulated the situation with the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station during the counteroffensive, after the capture of the bridgehead and the landing of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left bank. According to the calculations of the General Staff, the water should go away in 10-15 days, and then you need to immediately start the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine until the enemy has time to create a new line of defense, which was washed away by water.

Telegram Resident
Our source in the OP said that at the headquarters they discussed the formats of the counteroffensive after the explosion Kakhovskaya HPP, which changes the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. While everyone is discussing the situation below the dam and the flooding of the Kherson region, the real problem arises around...
t.me/rezident_ua/18160     420.3Kviews
Jun 6 at 12:47

After initially denying that the dam had been blown up [FALSE], Russia blamed Kyiv for the disaster. The dam bridges the Dnipro River, holding back as much as 18 cubic kilometers of water, and was a vital source of water to the Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014.
"EVERYONE said: 'The risk is high that the dam will be blown up if the adversary senses that we will come upon these territories to liberate them,'" the Ukrainian president said. The Russians "are afraid < wipes tears > that we will start the counter[-]offensive in this direction and they want to make it difficult to liberate our areas. They didn't think twice about flooding their occupied territories as well. I don't see any other reasons."

Zelensk* also took aim at international humanitarian organizations, which he said were missing in action when it came to rescue efforts on the ground.

by Cat on Wed Jun 7th, 2023 at 06:30:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Jun 9th, 2023 at 03:11:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Jun 9th, 2023 at 03:17:07 PM EST
No air cover going into battle ... suicide mission. A military campaign ... never mind the bloodshed of its citizens.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Jun 10th, 2023 at 07:30:39 AM EST
NATO Strategy: Tanks Into Donetsk Minefields

"Let's Try This Again!" | MofA |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 11th, 2023 at 07:48:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Russia-Ukraine conflict is now in its 472nd day

For several days, the Russian army has said it repelled assaults in the south of Ukraine, which would be the opening phase of Kiev's offensive.

Kiev, however, said the main centre of combat was still in Ukraine's east, while providing few details on the situation in the south.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 11th, 2023 at 07:57:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One year ago ...

How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World's Regions | IMF - March 15, 2022 |

Losing interest as combat is in a period of human suffering, bloodshed and a stalemate on the ground.

Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict | RAND Corp, |

Some analysts make the case that the war is heading toward an outcome that would benefit the United States and Ukraine. Ukraine had battlefield momentum as of December 2022 and could conceivably fight until it succeeds in pushing the Russian military out of the country. Proponents of this view argue that the risks of Russian nuclear use or a war with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will remain manageable. Once it is forced out of Ukraine, a chastened Russia would have little choice but to leave its neighbor in peace--and even pay reparations for the damage it caused. However, studies of past conflicts and a close look at the course of this one suggest that this optimistic scenario is improbable.

With Ukraine's survival at stake, are we losing interest in the war?

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Sun Jun 11th, 2023 at 08:08:23 AM EST
Rob de Wijk makes a living advocating the war narrative propagated by NATO HQ in Brussels ...

Sometimes reality hits you in the face and receive direct feedback from Nazi trolls out of Ukraine. Serves you right.

RdeW: Should I also block Ukrainian supporters?

arie van der ent: Greetings from Hermanivka, Rob de Wijk. You're starting to look more and more like Thierry, it's a shame I say it. Slava Ukraine!

Thierry Baudet the Dutch version of Trump-Orbán-AfD party combined.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jun 14th, 2023 at 11:31:11 AM EST

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jun 14th, 2023 at 11:38:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Source: Another Ukrainian attack got bogged down in a minefield | MofA |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jun 14th, 2023 at 11:39:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Onward towards China we go ...

A tricky balancing act for Europe: not resist the US, but also demonstrate not being an American lap dog, says HCSS expert.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jun 14th, 2023 at 11:40:27 AM EST

No, expanding NATO to the frontier with Russia became an existential threat to the sovereign state. READ the UN Charter ...

Nuclear Armageddon In A Blink of the Eye

JFK withdrew the Jupiter nuclear ballistic missiles from Turkey. Quid pro Quo ... Nikita Khrushchev avoided a nuclear war.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jun 15th, 2023 at 07:30:16 AM EST
Jeffrey Sachs went off the rails on this very topic (one of his books, evidently) during a zoom cast hosted by the Duran just yesterday.
by Cat on Thu Jun 15th, 2023 at 04:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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