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Europe Already Lost the Gas War with Russia

by Oui Fri Jun 9th, 2023 at 11:39:41 AM EST

It can in the short term get worse ...

Aluminum smelter Aldel bankrupt, hurt by high energy prices

Shell and Eneco win bid to develop 760 MW offshore wind power in the Netherlands at Hollandse Kust (west) VI

TenneT Grid Caoacity Map

Two GE-led consortiums in agreement with TenneT for award of contracts totaling approx. 10 Bln Euros to build state-of-the-art HVDC systems for TenneT's 2GW program

Пять причин, по которым Европа выиграла газовую войну с Россией этой зимой, но может проиграть следующей | BBC World News (ru) - April 23, 2023 |

Five reasons why Europe won the gas war with Russia this winter but could lose next

Europe survived the winter without blackouts, economic crisis and revolutions, despite all the efforts of the Kremlin, which unleashed a gas war against the EU in parallel with the invasion of Ukraine. The Europeans survived thanks to rare luck and colossal costs. It will be difficult to repeat this.

The five main reasons for the EU's success in the gas war (listed below) threaten to turn against it this year.

"Contrary to the expectations of many, including those in the Kremlin, Europe has not frozen and the European economy has not collapsed," said the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fajit Birol. "But the next winter of 2023/24 may be more difficult than this one."

"We are not only facing a difficult winter, but possibly a summer as well," agreed European Commissioner Kadri Simson, who is responsible for energy in the EU. "There is still no clarity, and we need to prepare for the worst."

Vladimir Putin still has trump cards in reserve - he has not yet blocked all gas pipelines. Gas did not fall under European sanctions, but the Kremlin, under various pretexts, reduced its supplies by 60-80% compared to pre-war.

Energy bill for EU industry and consumer may top one trillion Euros [€ 1 plus 12 zeroes]

As a result, gas prices in Europe, although they have fallen from their August records, are still three to four times higher than the average for the pre-war decade. The energy war is costing the 27 EU countries a gigantic amount - they have already allocated more than 650 billion euros to support the population and businesses, and the bill will quickly exceed 1 trillion euros.

Part of this money is received by the Kremlin. In the first year of the war, the EU paid 140 billion euros for Russian oil and gas, including 53 billion euros for gas. This is more than all Western assistance to Ukraine to repel Russian aggression.

How will the gas war develop this year? Here are five main reasons why Europe managed to survive the past winter, but may suffer next.

First of all, one needs to define what is considered "winning" or "losing" the energy war with Russia. The EU is heading into a recession as austerity measures are being prepared ... this will discourage Central Bank rates increase and limit further inflation. The consumer already suffered gravely and this will only get much worse in recession aftermath.

Will Rutte's Falsehoods Catch Up With Him?

🤥 🤥 🤥

Mark Rutte the Tory Conservative and world of lies and warmongering

Groningen Gas Fields, Profit Before Citizens

Dutch banks lower economic growth predictions after first quarter contraction

The Dutch economy will grow by 0.6 percent this year and 0.9 percent next year. Rabobank expects this after the first quarter of 2023 recorded a surprising economic contraction due to the weakening of world trade. ABN Amro economists have also become less optimistic and expect 0.7 percent growth this year and 1 percent in 2024.

The Rabobank economists predict that Staff shortages will limit economic growth while the demand for goods and services remains stable due to household and government spending. That will increase inflation, but less than last year. Rabobank also assumes that unemployment will rise slightly but remain low due to the continuing shortage of personnel.

Austerity and the frugal Dutch under Rutte I, II, III and IV

Dutch central bank leader Knot concerned after employees win substantial wage increase

Rutte I already started with cuts in health care and social security. Scrambling up from the previous economic crisis, the VVD thought it would be a good time to give people with less to spend an extra push downwards. The VVD proposed reducing the basic package of health insurers and increasing the deductible. Well, times were tough. We all want to forget the tolerance agreement with the PVV. The cabinet fell and we can forgive a few things.

Rutte II was formed very quickly. The Netherlands was able to continue with austerity. Several plans for quality improvement in healthcare received a vote against from the VVD. A popular petition 'Save the care', signed almost a million times, was not interesting according to the cabinet. The downsizing of nursing homes and long-term care, on the other hand, does. After five years of cutbacks, Statistics Netherlands reported a sharp increase in the number of homeless people and suicides. Anyway, prosperous Netherlands was satisfied, the economy turned again, on to Rutte III.

Austerity measures announced by the VVD, so the Dutch can invest in war games

New Airbus H225M Caracal helicopters for RNLAF

After years of discussing, the H225M Caracal has been selected as the best type for the Netherlands Defence Forces and their changing role. The Caracal is the successor of the family of Puma and Cougar helicopters and is specially designed for Special Forces Operations, a need that the Netherlands Special Forces wanted to have for years. The value of the contract lies between €1,5 and €2 billion.

Populist on Social Media: Shifting the Blame

'Shifting the blame. Populist politicians' use of Twitter as a tool of opposition | Journal of Contemporary European Research |

By S Van Kessel · 2016 ·-- In Period 4, the government was frequently criticised for its austerity measures (e.g. concerning pensions and health care provision), proposed tax reform legislation.

Austerity measures | ECHR | Shifting the Blame

'Shifting the blame. Populist politicians' use of Twitter as a tool of opposition | Journal of Contemporary European Research |

By S Van Kessel · 2016 ·-- In Period 4, the government was frequently criticised for its austerity measures (e.g. concerning pensions and health care provision), proposed tax reform legislation.

Rising Star VVD Rightwing Faction

The VVD is closer to authoritarianism and dictatorship than new party chair Caroline van der Plas of Farmers Alliance (BBB)

Hijacking Peace by Zelensky for War Escalation | May 4th, 2023 |

So he came by night to The Hague, the city of Peace and Carnegie foundation of the Peace Palace and what it stands for. Brutal war propaganda supported by opportunistic leader VVD party and Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Very ugly allegation of a VVD warmonger 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇳🇱 and nationalist.

A very early prediction ... energy poverty will hit hard, especially families already impoverished.

< wipes tears >
by Cat on Fri Jun 9th, 2023 at 12:49:01 PM EST
One year ago ...

Today's headlines...

Less money for German development aid? | DW News |

Over the next five years, the German armed forces are set to receive an additional €100 billion in "special asset" funding -- separate from the budget -- allowing the federal government to sidestep the budgetary matching rule.

That concerns Welthungerhilfe's Mathias Mogge. If the German budget for development aid shrinks, then important and necessary measures in both humanitarian aid and longer-term development cooperation can no longer be implemented.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jun 15th, 2023 at 05:37:40 AM EST
Joe and Jens urge NATO partners to share burden of new ploughs in European garden at 2% GDP minimum ... Pentagon sales for MAGA super charged.

In 2021, the Netherlands was the 9th-largest donor country in 2021, spending US$5.3 billion on ODA. This corresponds to 0.5% of its GNI, cutting back from 0.83% a decade earlier and the original agreement of EU states to reach 1% goal supporting developing countries. Pre Rutte and VVD era of a liberal and progressive mindset in Dutch politics. Building higher walls at our border (Borrellian fascism) ... the British conservatives and New Europe's populist policy to tackle aliens at our frontier.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Thu Jun 15th, 2023 at 05:38:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Jun 16th, 2023 at 07:43:09 PM EST

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