Lord Daniel Finkelstein

'Sapere aude'

From Alaska to Asia and Beyond<

In early April, the U.S. Department of Energy approved exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from a facility planned for Alaska to Asia. The approval came on the same day that U.S. climate envoy John Kerry commented, "There will be no rolling back on the clean energy transition" in Sapporo, Japan, during a meeting with G-7 representatives. While all other countries strive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Alaska project could increase greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels by 30%.

The approval of Alaska Gasline Development Corp's (AGDC) exports of LNG will be destined for countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement (they have free trade agreements in force with only 20 countries). Thus, LNG exports are mainly destined for countries in Asia, reaching up to 20 million metric tons of fracked gas annually in 2030.

Last year, the U.S. became the world's major LNG exporter, averaging 6.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf/d) per day on an annual basis[4]. The Arctic region is central to U.S. energy independence and national security.  Therefore, the Willow Project, which is expected to produce 576 million barrels of oil over 30 years," and the planned LNG gas pipeline is expected to set the U.S. in direct competition with Russia in the energy sector. Therefore, the Alaska energy outlook would set the United States in competition with Russia to ship natural gas from the Arctic to Asia.

Between economic growth, competition, and environmental doom

The U.S. faces a challenging situation. During the presidential campaign in 2020, Biden vowed to end new oil and gas drilling on public lands and waters, but today, the panorama looks different. Data shows "the Biden administration approved 3,557 permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands in its first year, far outpacing the Trump administration's first-year total of 2,658."

• Biden just betrayed the planet - and his own campaign vows | The Guardian |

Therefore, Alaska's petroleum-rich North Slope contradicts President Joe Biden's pledges to reduce carbon emissions and move to clean energy.

The European Union's Turn to the Arctic

The EU's engagement in the Arctic has both an environmental and geopolitical impetus as well. The EU's involvement in the Arctic raises the banner of the EU Green Deal without disregarding security and resource competition. Three EU member states (Denmark, Finland, and Sweden) are member states of the Arctic Council.

Militarisation of the Arctic

Beyond commercial interests, the territorial expansion into the Arctic is materializing with the advancement of defense and security concerns that were long dormant since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In response to Russia's aggression, the seven other Arctic states provisionally suspended their participation in the Arctic Council, isolating Russia. Against this backdrop, it is yet to be seen how China will take advantage of this situation.

Russian dominance of the Arctic includes civilian and military infrastructure across the Arctic, threatening the economic development and national security of the seven other nations that form the Arctic Council. In the same manner, NATO's increasing presence in the Arctic is viewed by Russia as a source of threat encroaching on its economic interests, particularly concerning oil and gas.

Russia and the United States in the Arctic: from Competition to Confrontation | Springer - June 2022 |

'Sapere aude'

Israel's Crisis of Legitimacy | Tikun Olam |

Israel faces the most severe crisis in its history.  After passing the anti-judicial law on Monday, near chaos has ensued. Israelis, who had protested the anti-democracy coup weekly for 28 weeks, now raged against Bibi Netanyahu's government. They massed around the Knesset attempting to block MKs from entering before the vote.  They've withstood police water cannons and foul-smelling skunk water (normally reserved for restive Palestinian communities) fired directly at them. Police also beat protestors mercilessly. They've marched by the tens of thousands from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 100+ degree temperatures. And they watched helplessly as a settler rammed his car into a crowd of demonstrators (ironically, a tactic used by Palestinians to attack Israelis) injuring three.

Protestors faces-off defiantly against police vehicle spraying skunk water (Ariel Schalit/AP)

The Knesset vote on the judicial bill was 64-0.  The remaining 56 MKs left the chamber in protest, denying the bill any legislative legitimacy.

And this is only the start. Coming down the pike are bills permitting the prime minister to fire the attorney general and appoint a twice-convicted MK to a ministerial portfolio.  The crowning "achievement" would be legislation immunizing him from prosecution for virtually any crime.  In this case, he is on trial for four counts of bribery.  Under current law, if convicted he would be forced to resign.  The proposed bill would eliminate this provision.  Currently, directors general of ministries are appointed by the civil service.  The new "reforms" would permit ministers to hire and fire their senior civil servant.

Now, the government seeks to essentially eliminate the judiciary and rule by fiat.  In any other country, this would be called a dictatorship.  This being Israel, there will be hasbara and apologists explaining that this coup is the "voice of democracy."

Pro-Israel stalwarts think the unthinkable

David Rothkopf, a former federal official and former managing director of Kissinger & Associates, has always been a staunch pro-Israel voice among the Beltway punditry.  Yet over the past few years, and especially the past few months, he has published jeremiads offering searing denunciations of not only the government, but of the state itself.  He published This Is the End of the U.S.-Israel `Special Relationship,' yesterday in the Daily Beast.  The rage and despair is palpable:

While most of the blame for this turn of events must go to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his extreme right-wing coalition of Jewish nationalists, some falls on America's leaders who, to varying degrees, for years refused to acknowledge Israel's drift toward authoritarianism or, for that matter, its serial abuses of millions of the people who lived within the borders it controlled.

The chorus of American leaders who regularly promised Israel's leaders we would be with them (no matter what they did) invited Netanyahu and the thugocracy he assembled around him to do their worst. The Israeli leaders knew there was no price to pay. They knew that American aid would keep on coming. They knew American leaders would apologize for or cover up their crimes, block the U.N. from taking action against them, and maintain the myth that they were democratic when becoming less and less so ...

Here Rothkopf takes on the Israel Lobby and its weaponization of anti-Semitism:

We must also acknowledge that part of the support for Israel was due to the political influence of its supporters among the American electorate, from Zionist Jews to evangelical Christians. Some among these supporters have been particularly effective in making any wavering of support by political leaders seem toxic. This was accomplished via multiple means, but among these were the establishment of bright red lines, such as the argument that failing to support the government of Israel's ethno-nationalist policies was tantamount to anti-Semitism...

[...]

Finally, the author warns of global catastrophic consequences if the US acted as if nothing has happened and continued on the same course:

A restoration of ties [which] further debase[d] the principles on which both governments were once founded would mean something much worse than the end of an international relationship. It would mean a devastating blow to democracy and the rule of law worldwide. It would be a catastrophe for both nations and the planet.

Nothing new for the Middle East watchers ... Israel mirrors its paternal ally. Contrary to suggestion in article and a comment, any comparison to Ukraine is lame.


'Sapere aude'