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Dictocracy: Gaming French Democratic System

by Oui Mon Jul 8th, 2024 at 09:19:04 AM EST

Updated!

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French legislative elections: Voters' dilemma when candidates withdraw

Leftist Alliance Blocked Le Pen's Far Right

Many third place candidates stood down in second round voting.


French elections: Far right blocked from forming majority, leftist coalition wins most seats

French political parties face a daunting task to put together a government after the second round of elections threw up a hung parliament, with a leftist alliance unexpectedly taking the top spot ahead of the far right.

The results of Sunday's election, based on pollsters' projections, were a setback for Marine Le Pen's nationalist National Rally (RN), which opinion polls had predicted would be the largest party, but which placed only third.

French elections: How the 224 candidate withdrawals have reshaped the second round | Le Monde |

Calls for candidates not to stand in races where the RN could win have been complied with by almost everyone on the left, and to a lesser extent by Macron supporters.

A large-scale movement with uncertain repercussions. In less than 48 hours, the 224 candidates who, according to a Le Monde tally, withdrew from the second round of snap parliamentary elections, have changed the nature of the electoral confrontation between Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and the other political parties.

After the first round on, June 30, the Interior Ministry had counted that the second round would be made up of 306 three-way run-offs, five four-ways and 190 duels. By Wednesday morning, there were only 89 three-way contests and two four-ways left, with 409 duels, according to a count by Le Monde based on the Interior Ministry's official list of candidates in the second round. The RN will be pitted against the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance in 149 of these, while 134 elections will see RN contenders run against candidates from President Emmanuel Macron's camp.

Who Is Jean-Luc Melenchon? Far-Left Leader Defiant After French Victory | Bloomberg |

France Faces Political Gridlock After Left Thwarts Far Right Victory | Bloomberg |

  • The French leftist alliance is the surprise victor, winning the most seats
  • President Emmanuel Macron's group comes second, while Marine Le Pen's far-right party places third
  • Macron may face tricky coalition talks, or opt for now for a technocratic administration
  • Overall market reaction so far is fairly muted on the view that political gridlock may at least limit the ability of the left to enact big-spending plans

A bit more on the timings: Olivier Faure, head of the Socialist Party, says on France Info TV he expects the parties that make up the New Popular Front to reach an agreement this week on who they should propose as prime minister.
Faure indicated the left alliance won't form a coalition with Macron's group.

The French voted for change, so they don't want a new government that includes the likes of outgoing Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin or Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, he said.

Finding a compromise candidate won't be easy. Jean-Luc Melenchon, head of the far-left France Unbowed, is deeply unpalatable for Macron and even the center-left has said he's too divisive to be prime minister. Another potential candidate could be Marine Tondelier of the Green party, as well as Raphael Glucksmann of the center-left Place Publique who we mentioned earlier.

French prime minister potential candidate could be Marine Tondelier of the Green Party

French elections: The other Marine taking center stage on the left | Le Monde |

Marine Tondelier, the leader of France's Green party and a veteran campaigner against the far right, has been a key player in both the creation of the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance and the defense of a republican front against the RN.

Greens leader Marine Tondelier emerges as key voice on French political scene * FRANCE 24 *

An American Take on European Fascism

Anti-Fascism in France, the United Kingdom and America

[…]

In France, the fascists were unexpectedly defeated, but the country was left without an obvious way forward. Before the people can begin looking to the next election, they must first devise a way to govern in the present. Unlike in some parliamentary systems, if a government doesn’t form, France doesn’t simply have a do-over. There can be no new election for at least one year. So, can Macron and the left make some kind of deal?

As for polling, it was fairly accurate in the United Kingdom and in the first round of the French elections, but it was way off on the second round of the French elections. Considering all the candidates who dropped out after the first round, this isn’t surprising. What’s remarkable is that the anti-fascist pro-Republic forces were able to see the threat from the fascists so clearly and act so quickly to counteract it.

Can America similarly see this threat and come together to thwart it? I think we can, but not if we’re distracted. This election can’t be about our candidate’s fitness for office or age and competency. It has to be about stopping Trump and his movement.

Roots in the surge of fascism lies not in Putin’s Russia Martin, but truly in the United States of America. Swept across the European Union from East to West with expansion of the EU/NATO into former Soviet satellite states. After 9/11 the dictates of Islamophobia was rooted in xenophobia, racism, migration and the Israel lobby to call all Muslims “terrorists.” See my diaries on the Israel lobby behind FEAR Inc.

The murderous backlash for the colonial Zionist state came on 10/7 – their 9/11 -- with the atrocities in kibbutzim. The Gaza genocide by Israeli Armed Forces is utter revenge following old biblical themes. The Israeli leadership rooted in terror against British occupation before 1947, got a boost from influx of Jewry from the Soviet Union and Eastern European states. Even the settlers escaping U.S. democracy are often the worst in abuse of the indigenous Palestinians. There is no justice under occupation and apartheid … end the war and call for an independent Palestinian State following the UN Charter.

Under the years of Joe Biden the Middle East blew up in his face as many had predicted by giving unlimited support for war criminals like Netanyahu-Bennett-Gallant-Herzog, and the worst fascist like Smotrich-Ben Gvir.

New Fascist Pariah States America and Israel Lashing Out | June 2018 |

End of this year – 2024 – quite likely both Assad and Putin will be still in power, more cruel than ever, as are the Ayatollahs in Iran. The Western Atlantic world will have shifted, now without Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, Mario Draghi, Jarosław Kaczyński, Mark Rutte … warmongers are on the march to defeat Russia.

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Hungary's Orban urges ceasefire on Kyiv visit | BBC News |

In his statement following their meeting, Mr Zelensky said it was "very important to have Europe's support for Ukraine maintained at sufficient level... it's important for co-operation between all the neighbours in Europe to become more meaningful and mutually beneficial".

In his own statement, Mr Orban stressed the need to work together but also said he had raised the idea of a ceasefire to hasten negotiations with Russia.
"I have asked the president to consider whether... a quick ceasefire could be used to speed up peace negotiations... I am grateful for his frank dialogue and his answers."

Mr Orban also said: "My first trip has taken me here because the issue of peace is important not only for Ukraine, but for the whole of Europe. This war that you are suffering is deeply impacting European security."

President Zelensky did not publicly respond to those comments.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 8th, 2024 at 12:14:43 PM EST
For Fascist Western Ukraine, Hungary is one enemy too many.

Transcarpathia, a multi-ethnic region wedged between Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and Romania, the cradle of Ukraine's Hungarian community.

Transcarpathian Oblast is the westernmost province in Ukraine, as well as the safest

Experts warn that the Hungarian populist leader -- an ally of Vladimir Putin -- is fueling a potential conflict between national groups. He's pulling Kyiv into what academic Dmitro Tuzhanskii has defined as "an ethnic trap.""The issue of national minorities has been decisive in the latest decisions on EU enlargement. Countries that haven't ignored it have moved faster towards the EU. Those who undervalued it have been left on a long and tedious path [towards gaining entry]," Tuzhanskii wrote in a report earlier this year, which was published by the political think tank GLOBSEC.

The Hungarian demands mirrors the Russian dispute over ethnic Russians and the Kyiv language law which is contrary to human rights and born out of right-wing fascism of Lviv and surrounding regions in Western Ukraine.

'Neo-Nazism' poisons Ukraine, Europe under US, West's connivance | Global Times - May 2022 |

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 8th, 2024 at 12:15:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why Ukraine's new language law will have long-term consequences | OpenDemocracy - 28 May 2019 |

Ukraine's new language law, passed at the end of the former president's rule, makes another attempt to divide Ukrainian citizens.

Russian democracy ends where Ukraine begins, as a popular saying goes, then Ukrainian democracy ends when the conversation about language begins. The "language issue" can make anyone hate each other and lead to additional friction in society.

Ukraine's new "Law on Guaranteeing the Functioning of the Ukrainian Language as a State Language" emerged out of Draft Law 5670-D, one of four language laws registered in the Ukrainian parliament. All of these bills were drawn up in response to the declaration of the 2012 "Kivalov-Kolesnichenko Law" (also known as the "Law on the Basis of State Policy") as unconstitutional. This law, drawn up under the Viktor Yanukovych regime, was developed to extend the rights of regional languages in Ukraine, but Ukraine's opposition criticised it as part of a "Russification" drive.

Immediately after the victory of EuroMaidan in 2014, parliamentary deputies tried to revoke the "Kivalov-Kolesnichenko Law", on 23 February. But acting president Oleksandr Turchynov decided not to sign off on parliament's decision. The very attempt to revoke the law outraged people of very different political views. Two days after, members of the Lviv intelligentsia came out in defence of the Russian language. Parliament's decision was interpreted as an attack on the rights of Russian-speaking Ukrainians, and became yet another trigger for pro-Russian separatism in the east of the country..

A long read on history of divisions in Ukraine and exploitation by the West ... and Russia. Multiple articles.

An Unnecessary War: The Geopolitical Roots of the Ukraine Crisis - by Peter Rutland ;
Between East and West: NATO Enlargement and the Geopolitics of the Ukraine Crisis - by Edward W. Walker


'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 8th, 2024 at 12:17:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Orbán reveals what Putin told him about his plan to "quickly" reach ceasefire and start negotiations | Ukrainska Pravda |

Orbán said Putin told him that true negotiations are impossible without the involvement of both sides and, hinting at the Global Peace Summit organised by Ukraine in June, that anything that's done without [both of them] doesn't matter.

Putin also told Orbán that Russia responded to Ukraine's initial proposals in spring 2022, and its position has not changed since. He added that Moscow was prepared to continue talks on the same terms.

Orbán also asked Putin what he thinks about reaching a ceasefire with Ukraine ahead of launching more substantive talks.

"He said he doesn't have high expectations regarding this. Zelenskyy said that he doesn't have high expectations because the Russians would use it against Ukraine. Putin [said] that Ukrainians would use this pause against Russia. But I said: `Let's think about it, and I get your arguments,'" Orbán said.

He also said he considers himself "the only Western leader who can simultaneously talk to both Kyiv and Moscow" because everyone else "has created a situation in which they can't directly contact the two key players". According to Orbán, he continues to maintain contact with Russia because he is looking for "the fastest and shortest path to ending the war".

#WeAreNato and defend the Western Empire ...  Biden's White House doesn't negotiate a peace treaty, no compromise ... not ever. War narrative will defeat Russia ... see coming NATO Summit where idiot Rutte will be welcomed as SG.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 8th, 2024 at 01:03:21 PM EST
Chinese President Xi Jinping called on world powers to help Russia and Ukraine resume direct dialogue | ABC News |

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on world powers to help Russia and Ukraine resume direct dialogue during a meeting Monday with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

Orbán made a surprise visit to China after similar trips last week to Russia and Ukraine to discuss prospects for a peaceful settlement of more than the two-year war. Hungary assumed the rotating presidency of the European Union this month and Orbán has since embarked on a peace mission, which, however, lacks the endorsement of other European leaders.

"China is a key power in creating the conditions for peace in the Russia-Ukraine war," Orbán wrote on the social media platform X. "This is why I came to meet with President Xi in Beijing, just two months after his official visit to Budapest."

[...]
During the trip, China upgraded its ties with Hungary to an "all-weather, comprehensive strategic partnership," one of its highest designations for foreign relations that in addition to Hungary applies only to Belarus, Pakistan and Venezuela.

Hungary under Orbán has built substantial political and economic ties with China. The European nation hosts a number of Chinese electric vehicle battery facilities, and in December it announced that Chinese EV manufacturing giant BYD will open its first European EV production factory in the south of the country.

The Hungarian prime minister broadly opposes Western military aid to Ukraine and has blocked, delayed or watered down EU efforts to assist Kyiv and impose sanctions on Moscow over its invasion. Orbán has long argued for a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine but without outlining what that might mean for the country's territorial integrity or future security.

That posture has frustrated Hungary's EU and NATO allies, who have denounced Russia's invasion as a breach of international law and a threat to the security of Eastern Europe.



'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 8th, 2024 at 02:17:50 PM EST
Recent remarks by Orbán ...

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán pushed back against some NATO proposals that would allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike targets within Russia, saying that such plans have Europe "inching closer to destruction."

End the war of attrition and Mutual Destruction ... halt further escalation ... stop the crazies.

Germany joined the United States in authorizing Ukraine to hit some targets on Russian soil with the long-range weapons they are supplying -- a significant policy change that comes as depleted Ukrainian troops are losing ground in the war.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 8th, 2024 at 02:18:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ukraine strike on Crimean civilians at the beachfront ... mutual terror on the civilian population.

Today's retaliatory strike on Kyiv ...

Kyiv children's hospital hit as Russia launches multiple missile attacks | NBC News |

Washington DC: NATO's 75th anniversary amidst existential threats from outside and within

More death, destruction and escalation of a stupid war of choice?

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 8th, 2024 at 02:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
God willing, Vladimir Putin will be struck by lightning ⚡️ ...

President Joe Biden debate God willing we will win again as in 2020

President Joe Biden dismisses health concerns, vows to stay in the race, and claims only God can make him quit.

Only the 'Lord Almighty' could convince me to quit - Biden | BBC News - 7 July 2024 |

Taken literally, the term "inshallah," consists of three Arabic words (In sha' Allah) which translate into "if God wills it." Spiritually it represents a submission to God's will. It can perhaps be seen as the Muslim counterpart to the Yiddish adage, "Man plans, and God laughs."

Biden uses 'inshallah' in response to Trump during debate, lighting up Twitter | 30 Sept 2020 |

Joe Biden as Senator on Foreign Policy, the Iraq War, Middle East peace ... a smooth talker with no backbone ... a great opportunist ...

Biden says Israeli settlement plan undermines peace efforts | France24 - March 2010 |

US Vice President Joe Biden has criticised Israeli plans to build 1,600 new settlement homes in East Jerusalem in a statement following talks with the head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.

"Biden's Legacy Will Be Apartheid"
President Biden has answered Prime Minister
Netanyahu's extremist government with only
the mildest of rebukes. Critics say he is
failing to meet the moment.
[Jewish Currents]

Summary of fifty Biden years ...

Biden's mixed messages to Israel are coming home to roost | Responsible Statecraft |

No ceasefire in Gaza, a looming war in Lebanon. 'Enabling' is no strategy for success.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Mon Jul 8th, 2024 at 02:51:10 PM EST

LeChatGPT. Who will Macron appoint PM? Four questions to understand what happens after the election

["possible scenarios":] Could France be led by a coalition government, minority government, or technical government? In the absence of a clear absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale, there is a risk of deadlock.
[...]
1. When does a new government have to be appointed?
...Attal had already said on Sunday he was prepared to remain in the premiership "as long as duty requires"—in other words, until that successor is found.

There is, therefore, no formal timetable that requires Macron to either ask the current government to resign or appoint a new one. The president announced on Sunday that he preferred to "wait for the new Assemblée Nationale to be structured before taking the necessary decisions," in accordance "with the republican tradition."

The fun part arises paragraphs later in calculating how to form a "coalition" out mutually exclusive Round 2 Anyonebut Ensemblerenaissance opportunists. The discussion is, of course, more nuanced than negotiating a "unity government" in South Africa.
Nevertheless, Macron cannot completely ignore the new political landscape that has emerged as a result of the elections. A government based on the support of a minority in the Assemblée Nationale faces the threat of a motion of no confidence, which could be introduced as early as the first session of the new Assemblée Nationale—scheduled for July 18, as per Article 12 of the French Constitution.

2. How is the French prime minister chosen?
Theoretically, the president has the power to appoint whomever he wishes to Matignon, the office of the prime minister.
[...]
3. What are the possible scenarios?
In the absence of a clear majority in the Assemblée Nationale, there is a real risk of institutional deadlock. France's Constitution does not impose any timetable for forming a government, but no legislative or regulatory text can be adopted without one. The negotiations that will take place over the next few days may, or may not, lead to the emergence of one of these situations:
[...]

LeChatGPT | European leaders express relief after blow to far right
"Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez hailed France's 'rejection of the far right', while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the result would lead to 'disappointment' in Russia and 'relief' in Ukraine."

Mr Normal, among others, float over LeChat morning edition front page featuring the Monti "Italian experience".

by Cat on Mon Jul 8th, 2024 at 11:22:23 PM EST
by Cat on Wed Jul 10th, 2024 at 03:04:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
middleeastmonitor | Macron protests Israel's `unacceptable' interference in French elections, 10 July U R PUTIN PUPPET?
In the weeks leading to the EU parliament and the French parliamentary elections, Israel's Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli of the Likud Party openly supported Macron's rival, far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen....On Monday, former Israeli minister Avigdor Lieberman called on Jews in France to flee to Israel after a left-wing coalition won in the elections.

"I appeal to all Jews in France: Come and live in Israel!" Lieberman said on X. He said Jean-Luc Melenchon, a prominent leader of the French left-wing New Popular Front alliance, "became famous with quite a few statements against Jews and the State of Israel."

by Cat on Wed Jul 10th, 2024 at 08:22:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Cat on Thu Jul 11th, 2024 at 08:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Oui (Oui) on Fri Jul 12th, 2024 at 08:16:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
bfmtv | LA LETTRE D'EMMANUEL MACRON AUX FRANÇAIS APRÈS LES RÉSULTATS DU SECOND TOUR DES LÉGISLATIVES, 10 Juil
"Chères Françaises, chers Français,

Les 30 juin et 7 juillet derniers, vous vous êtes rendus aux urnes en nombre pour choisir vos députés. Je salue cette mobilisation, signe de la vitalité de notre République dont nous pouvons, me semble-t-il, tirer quelques conclusions.
[...]
Président de la République, je suis à la fois protecteur de l'intérêt supérieur de la Nation et garant des institutions et du respect de votre choix. C'est à ce titre que je demande à l'ensemble des forces politiques se reconnaissant dans les institutions républicaines, l'Etat de droit, le parlementarisme, une orientation européenne et la défense de l'indépendance française, d'engager un dialogue sincère et loyal pour bâtir une majorité solide, nécessairement plurielle, pour le pays.
[...]
C'est à la lumière de ces principes que je déciderai de la nomination du Premier ministre. Cela suppose de laisser un peu de temps aux forces politiques pour bâtir ces compromis avec sérénité et respect de chacun. D'ici là, le Gouvernement actuel continuera d'exercer ses responsabilités puis sera en charge des affaires courantes comme le veut la tradition républicaine.

bfmtv | CE QU'IL FAUT RETENIR DE LA LETTRE AUX FRANÇAIS D'EMMANUEL MACRON PUBLIÉE DANS LA PRESSE RÉGIONALE (11.07.24)
Une lettre avec un double message. Le premier est assez simple. Si le NFP est arrivé en tête dimanche, fin du suspens, le chef de l'Etat n'a pas l'intention d'appeler une personnalité de ses rangs à Matignon. Pourquoi? Car selon lui, les résultats démontrent que personne ne l'a remporté.
Plaçons notre espérance dans la capacité de nos responsables politiques à faire preuve de sens de la concorde et de l'apaisement dans votre intérêt et dans celui du pays. Notre pays doit pouvoir faire vivre, comme le font tant de nos voisins européens, cet esprit de dépassement que j'ai toujours appelé de mes voeux.
[...]
LeChatGPT | Macron's letter to the French rekindles political crisis, 11 July (EN)
...The letter to the French people Macron had just published in the regional press, was meant to place him above the political turmoil at home. According to his staff, Macron drafted the letter the day before from the Elysée Palace. He then finalized the details from the A330 plane that took him to the US. The letter, presented as a means to "appease" the situation, put an end to an unusual ten-day silence from the president.

Was it necessary for him to speak to ensure his tranquility at the NATO summit? Three days after the outcome of the snap elections, Macron presented himself as the judge of elegance, almost the master of the game....

LeChatGPT | La nouvelle lettre aux Français d'Emmanuel Macron, un geste « d'apaisement » qui ravive les tensions politiques en France, 11 Juil
by Cat on Thu Jul 11th, 2024 at 07:58:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ChatGPT euronews | Travel chaos could hit Paris airports just before the Olympics if strike goes ahead, 9 July
"Workers at Paris airports are threatening to go on strike ahead of the start of the Olympics. Unions which represent workers for the Aéroports de Paris (ADP)—including the airports of Roissy-Charles de Gaulle and Orly—are calling for strike action on Wednesday 17 July. The reason for the strike? A dispute over bonuses for staff. If the walkout by members of the CGT, CFDT, FO, and UNSA unions does go ahead, it might cause disruption just nine days before the first day of the Games."


NEW! script. Places, everyone! French trade union boss hints at protests during Olympics, 11 July

Faced with a hung parliament, Mr Macron called in his open letter for a coalition of all MPs, with the exception of the populist National Rally and the radical left France Unbowed (LFI) party, who are a significant part of the NFP alliance but are seen as almost as extreme < wipes tears > as RN by many in the French president's centrist < wipes tears > group.
[...]
Ms Binet hinted that protests could continue during the Olympics if Macron did not comply, saying "at this stage, we haven't planned any strikes during the Olympics, but if Macron continues to throw petrol on to the flames..." The Olympic Games start on 26 July.
[...]
The railway workers' branch of the CGT responded by calling for protests on 18 July, the day when the newly elected parliament is scheduled to convene. It said the protests should take place in front of prefectures, the seats of state authority all around the country, and in front of the National Assembly in Paris, to demand that the NFP form a government.

The leader of the radical < wipes tears > left LFI, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, also slammed Mr Macron, saying: "It is the return of the royal veto over universal suffrage! That is enough. He must bow down and call on the NFP. That is simply democracy."

rfi | Seine fit for swimming most of past 12 days, Paris city hall says ahead of Olympics, 12 July
by Cat on Fri Jul 12th, 2024 at 03:09:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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