by Oui
Sat Sep 7th, 2024 at 07:17:12 AM EST
The masterminds of economic reform of the former Soviet Empire during the reign of Boris Yeltsin and the recovery miracle of the Greece economy during the financial crisis in the EU.
Goldman Sachs: How Investable Is Europe? | August 2024 |
Recent weak European survey data has raised the question of whether Europe's nascent cyclical recovery may be failing. Alongside these cyclical worries, Europe is grappling with increased political risks in light of the recent European Parliament and French election outcomes and, more crucially, the prospect of heightened trade and security risks depending on the US election outcome--all of which could spell bad news for Europe's economy. And these risks are coming atop daunting structural problems that continue to plague the region. Just how significant Europe's cyclical, political, and structural challenges are--and what that means for Europe's investability--is Top of Mind.
We first speak with Jean Pisani-Ferry, Senior Fellow at Bruegel, and Jari Stehn, GS Chief European Economist, about Europe's cyclical outlook. Stehn argues that while the pickup in growth in 1H24 suggests that Europe has emerged from two years of stagnation [higher cost energy and UA crisis], the cyclical outlook has dimmed owing to the recent weaker survey data and rising growth risks from trade amid a slowdown in China and proposed Trump policies should he win the US presidency. Stehn now expects 0.7% and 1.3% GDP growth in the Euro area this year and next, respectively, and downside risks to even this relatively weak baseline loom large.
He estimates that Trump's proposed 10% across-the-board tariff on all US imports would lower Euro area growth by 1%. And even if such tariffs aren't implemented, he argues that a sharp rise in trade policy uncertainty--which has already begun to manifest---would prove damaging for growth.
The European growth outlook has certainly dimmed.
- Jari Stehn
Europe's longer-term outlook is... concerning, as the region is facing several structural challenges that I am worried it lacks the political capacity to tackle.
- Jean Pisani-Ferry
Despite worries about the rise of political nationalism and extremism in Europe, external factors... are likely to continue pushing the Union toward more--not less-- integration over the medium term.
- José Manuel Barroso
Whether the deep valuation gap between Europe and the US marks a temporary or more structural shift is a valid question. But the risks facing the region look fully priced in given the magnitude of the European equity risk premium today.
- Helen Jewell
Same shock, different effects: EU member states' exposure to the economic consequences of Putin's war NATO aggression | Delors Center |
See my diaries on U.S. policy vs Russia and Putin over last two decades ... the false narrative of Putin's empire building as Russia wanted to preserve economic ties with the EU. Putin never wanted this war and Russia forces were unprepared as the world has witnessed. Both sides are now building stockpiles of weapons, munitions and advances electronic warfare ... for what purpose? The planet is on fire, stop stupid wars.
Capitalism and greed is espoused by MAGA of Trump and Biden/Harris. Brussels leadership stepped in the American Eagle trap, made possible by historical hatred of former Soviet bloc states vs the old Soviet empire that doesn't exist anymore.
US President Donald Trump holds a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the White House on March 17, 2017 | Credit Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images |
U.S. President Donald Trump said "the Germans are bad, very bad" during a meeting with EU leaders, German newspapers reported.
Trump as the patriotic Queens NY mob boss forces extortion money from our friendly allies. It began with imports of German automakers, hit NATO allies with a minimum surtax to fill contracts for American war junk, until Joe Biden saw the opportunity to cut off the lifeline of low-cost Russian gas to the European Union. Continuation of the 2014 coup d'état, same nation, different man in the White House. Democratic allies of party and Wall Street, son Hunter included, reaped the bare profits. Oligarchy by name.
America a Banana Republic, not a Beacon of Light
New York Judge Juan Merchan postponed sentencing
to November 26 - well past the November 5 election
in which Mr Trump faces Vice President Kamala Harris.
In a letter Judge Merchan said the decision was made
to "avoid any appearance" of the proceedings
impacting the US presidential race.
"The Manhattan D.A. Witch Hunt has been postponed
because everyone realises that there was no case, I did
nothing wrong!" Mr Trump wrote on his social media account.
"It is a political attack against me by Comrade Kamala
Harris and other Radical Left Opponents for purposes
of Election Interference, and is a case that
should have never been brought."
He said the prosecution of him was "strictly third
world, banana republic `stuff'" and added
the case "should be rightfully terminated".
.
Trump suggests he'd encourage Russia to attack countries not paying enough to NATO | CBC News |
Dream on Clingendael Institute - anno 2018
Trump's Impact on European Security - Policy Options in a Post-Western World
