If the EU was a State in the United States: Comparing Economic Growth between EU and US States
The US economy has clearly outperformed the EU. This disparity in economic outputs has been sustained over a long period of time and, thanks to the power of compound interest, resulted in an 82 percent GDP per capita gap in favour of the US in 2021. While the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence, and the EU performs better than the US in other areas that matter for the quality of life such as health, the gap in GDP per capita between the EU and the US has become too big to ignore.
The proxy war of Ukraine v Russia sealed the deal for the U.S. as only western power, yet needs Europe to counter China in the Pacific. NATO expands to the Far East after expansion w Israel and Arab States is frozen for now.
There are many reasons behind this variation in economic outcomes. The EU's Total Factor Productivity (TFP), a proxy for technological change, has been significantly lower than the US. The EU economy experienced lower economic dynamism, R&D spending, and higher energy costs than the US. As a result, EU GDP per capita, particularly for the Euro Area, has been consistently lower than the US.
The EU's relatively disappointing economic performance vis-à-vis the US is a well-known economic fact. However, it becomes more striking when the EU and US averages are broken down by its constituent parts, namely the EU member states and the US states. The resulting picture should be a cause for concern for the EU policy-makers. When EU member states and US states GDP per capita is ordered from the highest to the lowest only two EU member states, Luxembourg and Ireland, have a GDP per capita higher than the US average. The next in the line is Denmark, whose GDP per capita is still lower than 28 US states. Since 2000, 14 EU member states, including Germany, France, and Italy which historically have been the drivers of European economic activity, have fallen in this ranking. While GDP per capita in Central and Eastern European countries has grown considerably, their relatively small size and lower starting point, stop them from reverting the trend of relative EU economic decline.
However, every cloud has a silver lining. This Policy Brief offers a glimpse of hope for Europe. The EU is not destined to a future of economic stagnation. The example of the US states, which are comparable to the EU member states in their economic development, proves that achieving higher rates of economic growth is possible and, given the current challenge in the EU's energy, defence, demography and public finance, desirable.
This report was written before the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, Biden's use of the Defense Production Act was a continuation of the Republican and Trump's MAGA policy.
Press Release: Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to Export Control Regulations | 14 August 2023 |
A long history of booming oil business and dominance of capitalism ...
U.S. shale oil and gas: From independence to dominance | GIS report |
Despite challenges, shale looks set to prevail for decades to come.
The United States has played an important role in the oil markets since the beginning of the oil era nearly two centuries ago. However, its place on the stage has shifted from the center to the wings and back again over the years. In 1880, it accounted for 85 percent of global crude oil production and refining, but rapid growth in domestic consumption had shifted the U.S.'s position from a major net exporter to a net importer by the mid-1950s.
When U.S. conventional oil production peaked in 1972, and the first oil shock struck in 1973, the American people became alarmed by their dependence on oil imports from OPEC countries and the Middle East. So, on November 7, 1973, U.S. President Richard Nixon announced Project Independence, which he put in the same league as the Manhattan Project and the space program. The aim was "the strength of self-sufficiency" in energy - a goal that has been pursued by every subsequent president. It took around 70 years for the U.S. to achieve this, becoming a net exporter of oil in 2018, when it also outpaced both Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's largest oil producer.
The Gas Boom No One Ordered
Why the LNG export push by the US sets the world on fire
Almost five years ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that in a net-zero world there is no need for new fossil fuel supply. They repeated the message in 2023: no new long lead oil or gas projects fit in a Paris-compatible pathway.
And yet the world is sprinting in the opposite direction. Global gas production rose to a new high in 2024, increasing by 2% compared with 2023. The United States, already the world's largest gas producer, broke new production records in 2024, both driving and benefiting from the rapid expansion of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade.
Globally, liquefaction capacity, which is key to bring the gas onto the global market, has swelled beyond 680 billion cubic metres per year - and developers are lining up an additional 1,544bcm, more than tripling the capacity existing today.
What happened, who is responsible, and how do we stop a gas boom that nobody ordered?
Energy security panic and industry spin
Covid recovery, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a string of geopolitical crises have pushed energy security to the top of the global agenda. Gas, and particularly the supposed flexibility of LNG, has been sold by the industry as the cure-all for energy shocks and the cornerstone of energy security. The result have been rushed and costly decisions to build out import capacities, many of them vastly oversized, as we have for example shown for Germany. Far from providing stability, these investments lock in new dependencies that can be weaponised. This danger specifically looms over Southeast Asia, which is on track to account for 25% of global energy demand growth between now and 2035, and which is still struggling to redefine energy security in a way that breaks free from gas.
Linked articles ...
Big Oil, Targeted Taxes, and the Rule of Law | AEI - April 2012 |
Oil and gas geopolitics: no shelter from the storm
There could be widespread ramifications from US energy independence and looming US sanctions on Iran and Russia; states in Central Asia could be hit hard, as well as serious possible impacts on global oil production and the West
Russia and Saudi Arabia are in deep debate on whether to raise OPEC and non-OPEC oil production by 1 million barrels a day to offset the drastic plunge in Venezuela's production plus possible shortfalls when new US sanctions on Iran kick in in November.
The problem is that even a production raise would not be enough, according to Credit Suisse; only 500,000 barrels a day would be added to the global market.
Oil has spiked as high as $80 a barrel - unheard of since 2014. A production spike could certainly halt the trend. At the same time, key supply players would rather keep crude futures at $70-$80 a barrel. But the price could even hit $100 before the end of the year, depending on the impact that US sanctions have.
Persian Gulf traders told Asia Times the current oil price would be "much higher today if the Gulf States played their usual role at OPEC and cut back production" - to 10% or 15% or 20% of OPEC supply. According to an Abu Dhabi trader, "present OPEC cutbacks only target 1.8 million barrels a day, which is ridiculous, and indicates that the US is still pressuring to hold down the price."
A Saudi-Russia deal could certainly turn the tables.
[...]
Societe Generale has forecast that US sanctions might remove as much as 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude from the global market.
And that leads us to the real big story for the foreseeable future, as Asia Times cross-referenced analyses from Persian Gulf traders with diplomats in the European Union; beyond technical issues, the point is how oil and energy markets are hostage to geopolitical pressure.
The US is in a relatively comfortable position. US oil production has reached 10.7 million barrels per day - enough for domestic needs. And shale oil production is expected to rise to a record 7.18 million barrels a day next month, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Burisma and shale oil & gas exploitation in Ukraine ... future energy hub for Europe
Shale Gas: Market Opportunities and Challenges in the EU and Ukraine | Natural Gas World - 14 Dec. 2011 |
Of course, Russia shouldn't mess with the Russian speaking population in Eastern Ukraine along its borders. Joe Biden was in Kiev, followed by CIA chief John Brennan and there was immediate response of the Ukrainian Army [neo-Nazi militants] moving into Mariupol and Slavyansk, guns blazing. Western media didn't cover the 42 deaths in Odessa and the total death toll after the Maidan Revolution has surpassed the sad number of pre-rebellion. In VP's office, did Biden find a moving box with Halliburton energy dossiers belonging to Cheney?
Hunter Biden joins the team of Burisma Holdings
Hunter Biden, son of US VP Joe Biden, is joining the board of directors of Burisma Holdings, Ukraine's largest private gas producer. The group has prospects in eastern Ukraine where civil war is threatened following the coup in Kiev.
Biden will advise on "transparency, corporate governance and responsibility, international expansion and other priorities" to "contribute to the economy and benefit the people of Ukraine."
The Proxy War In Ukraine and the lobby American Petroleum Institute
Big Oil Winning the War On Ukraine | 27 Oct. 2022 |
In March there were joyful reactions in fossil fuel lobby community when sanctions on Russian natural gas were announced and the European powers were left without a diversion but coal, LNG and nuclear power. The wreckage of green transition to solar and wind power. Quite unreliable sources for fuel consuming industrial processes and transport sector. The politicians in EU HQ Brussels and member states were caught napping as Joe Biden crossed Europe in his Blitzkrieg boasting promises America couldn't meet.
API's @mj_sommers sent a letter to @SecGranholm @ENERGY outlining a list of concrete policy solutions that the administration could immediately implement to ensure long-term American energy leadership and security. Full letter below: American Petroleum Institute
"...outlining steps key regulatory agencies should take to ensure long-term American energy leadership and security at a time of increased geopolitical volatility."
Ukrainian citizens protest in New York City's Times Square against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Credit: JANIFEST editorial photo via Depositphotos)
The Oil and Gas Industry is Using the War in Ukraine to Profit and Push Its Interests | DeSmog - 23 Mar 2022 |
My recent diary ...
The Loss of the Donbas' Key City Pokrovsk
Master of historical events post fall of Communism and highly intelligent …
’Ukraine is A Corrupt MESS’ Trump Finalizes Russia Peace Deal | with Jeffrey Sachs |
John Kerry a big failure as Secretary of State and diplomacy … WTF just think Syria
John Kerry: Path to peace between Russia and Ukraine still possible | ITV News |
Spokesperson in 2014 … making Russia a pariah state … Kerry a real American Patriot blinded by Exceptionalism and recent history.
Kerry Preaching Policy Contra Russia @Atlantic Council | 1 May 2014 |
Kerry should experience a warm bath here as I have referred to the right-wing Atlantic Council and its harsh statements of containment for Putin's Russia in a New Cold War. The US wants to reduce its military presence in Europe and has set policy for NATO members to increase investments in its military: Navy, Air Force and Army. The Ukraine is an ideal nation to illustrate the "Imperial Danger" of the Russian Bear. A dangerous path to create division between new and old Europe, when did we take this path before? Rumsfeld in the lead-up to the Iraq War ...
Btw on the same date as neo-Nazis attacked pro-Russian citizens in Odessa setting a building ablaze and killed 42. VP Biden visited Kyiv with war criminal DNI head James Clapper as the battle against Russian speaking citizens in the Donbas escalated. No coincidence of course.
Related reading …
New Fascist Pariah States America and Israel Lashing Out | 20 June 2018 |
BREAKING NEWS: KAJA KALLAS MORE EU FANTASY OF REALITY ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE
EU Slams Trump's Ukraine 'Peace Plan' After Ministers' Video Call in Brussels
EU promises Kiev weapons, more anti-Russian sanctions against backdrop of peace efforts
"An immediate and unconditional ceasefire must be the first step to ending the war," Kaja Kallas said [EEAS]
Everyone welcomes the United States push for peace. We all want this war to end. But how it ends also matters. We must keep in mind that there is one aggressor and one victim.
An immediate and unconditional ceasefire must be the first step to ending the war. But right now, we see zero indications that Russia is ready for a ceasefire. Russia is not winding down its military machine but ramping it up. We still need to get from a situation where Russia pretends to negotiate to a situation where they need to negotiate.
We are getting there. Russia’s summer offensive failed. US and EU sanctions are having a huge impact on the Russian economy. Energy revenues, the economy equally are shrinking. Russia is losing cash and troops. To increase the chance for peace, we need to increase also the pressure on Russia. The notion that Ukraine is losing is also flat out false. If Russia could conquer Ukraine militarily, it would have already done so by now. Putin cannot achieve his goals on the battlefield, so he will try to negotiate his way there.
To secure the best outcome for Ukraine and Europe, we have to stay the course but pick up the pace. This means more sanctions to deprive Russia of the means to fight and more military and financial support to Ukraine.
Brussels, Tass - EU foreign ministers confirmed their previously announced unified position on the Ukrainian settlement, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced following the consultations.
"An immediate and unconditional ceasefire must be the first step to ending the war," she said, adding that the EU countries' position on the US peace initiative on Ukraine had also not changed.
Kallas said that the top diplomats "discussed pressure on Russia" and "support for Ukraine," which means "more sanctions to deprive Russia of the means to fight and more military and financial support to Ukraine," opposed territorial concessions by Kiev, and refused to support a reduction in the size of the Ukrainian army. In addition, during the consultations, the parties noted that only EU and NATO countries can decide on Ukraine's integration into these associations.
The EU foreign policy chief also emphasized that the ministers discussed expropriating Russian assets through a so-called "reparation loan" and that the European Commission continues to consider this the "best option" for financing Ukraine.
Ukraine Conflict Monitor
ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor provides near real-time information on the ongoing war, including an interactive map, a curated data file, and weekly situation updates. It is designed to help researchers, policymakers, media, and the wider public track key conflict developments in Ukraine.
Ukraine faces pressure for a quick resolution — but on the battlefield, Russia's victory isn't assured | NBC News |
From the front-line city of Pokrovsk in eastern Donetsk to Zaporizhzhia in the south, there is little doubt that Russia is making advances. But battlefield monitors suggest the picture isn't quite so bleak for Ukraine as Trump and Putin suggest.
Driscoll not flying to London for talks with Kiev due to EU criticism of US plan
U.S. Army secretary warned Ukraine of imminent defeat while pushing initial peace plan | NBC News |
One camp, including Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and other officials, views Ukraine as the primary obstacle to peace and favors using U.S. leverage to force Kyiv to make major compromises, according to multiple current and former officials.
The other camp, represented by Rubio and other officials, sees Russia as the culprit for having launched an unprovoked invasion of its neighbor and says Moscow will relent only if it pays a price for its aggression through sanctions and other pressure.
With his deputies vying for his attention along with Republican lawmakers and European leaders, President Donald Trump has veered back and forth on how to resolve the conflict.
“It was clear for some time that there was a divide, but we’ve never seen it in action publicly quite the way we have in the last few days,” said a former senior U.S. diplomat with experience in Eastern Europe.
The Brits still love their hero PM Boris Johnson …
