by Frank Schnittger
Tue Feb 18th, 2025 at 08:57:52 PM EST

I sent the letter below to the editors of the Irish Times, Independent, News, Examiner and Belfast Telegraph. It is a little on the long side for a letter, and none saw fit to publish it. Having had hundreds of letters published and more rejected, I do not take such rejection personally. Letter's page editors tend to focus on one theme at a time, and between Trump's shenanigans and numerous scandals closer to home, they have not been short of material.
But now Mark Henessey has published an Opinion Piece in the Irish Times entitled "No one's talking about it': How Irish unity has slid down the political agenda" arguing basically that while 65% in the south say they favour a United Ireland, and want the government to plan for it, they have a lot more urgent priorities such as public housing, healthcare, the administration of public funds, and the challenges posed for Ireland's economy, security and defence by Trump's Presidency in the USA - all of which are amply reflected in the letters pages.
But a good government should be able to focus on many things at once, and particularly civil servants and diplomats in departments which would be most effected by re-unification. I'm not really into glitzy press conferences and and showpiece forums - what's really needed is someone doing the hard work of working out the costs, benefits, political implications and pitfalls of integrating two public services delivering a wide range of infrastructural investment and public services across all areas of government.
Hence the letter:
The Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South (ARINS) research programme into the implications of and possibilities for Irish Re-unification is a research programme sponsored by the Royal Irish Academy (RIA) and the Keough-Naughton Centre for Irish Studies at the University of Notre Dame.
For the past three years it has commissioned IPSOS to conduct in depth surveys into attitudes to Irish Re-unification throughout Ireland, both north and south. These surveys find that the gap between the pro-Union and the pro-Irish re-unification sides in Northern Ireland has declined from 23% to 14% in just three years.
At that rate of change a majority for a United Ireland could emerge within the next five years.
If I were a unionist I would be concerned at the trend and anxious to correct any factors that might be re-enforcing that trend. To me that means reaching out to non-unionists and trying to correct whatever is driving their disillusion with the status quo.
However, I see no evidence that the DUP, UUP, and TUV are currently trying to do so. Instead, they appear to be doubling down on anti-Irish language, anti-Casement Park, and anti-EU policies.
Neither do the difficult economic circumstances of the UK and the resulting austerity, including the decline of the NHS in Northern Ireland, look like improving any time soon. Even with Irish government support through the Shared Island Initiative, Northern Ireland's infrastructure is crumbling as we speak.
An Tánaiste has declared that the priority of the current government is to improve the workings of the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement, but what if they are overtaken by events and evidence emergences that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland may be obliged to call a border poll within the life time of the current Government?
The ARINS surveys show that what unites Ireland, north and south, is a concern that clear and comprehensive plans are developed for the re-unification process, and what a new united Ireland would ultimately look like. 65% in the south and 60% in the north agree on this, including 38% of Protestants in the north.
So, is it not now incumbent on the Irish government to begin consultations for such a plan and liaising with the British government on aspects which effect their civil servants, citizens, and residents in Northern Ireland?
Nothing could be worse than the Brexit referendum in the UK, where voters didn't know precisely what they were voting for or against
---oo0oo---
Governments of the day tend to focus on the problems of the day. Harold Wilson's famous aphorism "A week is a long time in politics" has been a guiding principle for politicians since long before 24 hour media cycles and even shorter social media storms began to dominate the agenda for governments. I'm not really sure another "New Ireland Forum" talk shop would add a whole lot of value either - beyond rehearsing arguments we have heard so many times before. Sometimes such initiatives are set up to give the impression the government is doing "something" and to avoid having to do anything substantive at all.
The sort of detailed examination of the administrative and diplomatic issues any re-unification process would have to address is not really the bread and butter of parliamentary politics in any case. It is the civil servants and diplomats who would ultimately have to manage that process who should be looking at the implications now for taxpayers, workers, pensioners, businesses, infrastructure, public services, law enforcement, security, defence policy, political structures and our relationship with Britain. Would it be too much to ask for the setting up of an interdepartmental task force which could be beavering away quietly in the background?
Such an approach would also address the concerns of southern politicians that any high profile forum or ministry with formal and public responsibility for such preparations would unnecessarily upset and antagonise unionists in the north. It would be presumptuous to take the result of any border poll for granted, and the GFA gives the responsibility for calling a border poll entirely to the British Secretary of State. A lot of private Irish/British consultations would hopefully have taken place beforehand to ensure everybody is on the same page as to what a yes or no vote would entail.
The danger of not being seen to do anything at all is that it gives the impression of quite a dismissive attitude towards those, north and south, who see a planned process towards a United Ireland as a priority. Not appointing any unionist to the Senate and including only cursory references to the aspiration towards unity on page 142 of a 162 page in the Programme For Government can give the misleading impression that nobody cares.
It may very well be true that Ireland 's economic elite and conservative political parties are not entirely enamoured with the prospect of a left wing Sinn Féin becoming the largest political party in an all island polity, but they will find they have much common ground with the Alliance and unionist parties when it comes to political policies and good administration on the island. If anything, more conservative political, social, and economic attitudes are more prevalent in the north and re-unification could provide a boost for conservatism throughout the island.
The world is changing more rapidly that ever, with Trump overturning 80 years of US policy towards Europe, and NATO, the EU, the UK and Ireland having to conduct a fundamental review of their policies and priorities in the political, economic, and security realities of a very changed environment. The cosy consensus among conservatives - north and south - that nothing will change for the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone any time soon is about to be tested as never before.