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There Are No Grown-Ups In Charge

by rifek Fri Apr 17th, 2026 at 03:46:58 PM EST

So there's a ceasefire in Lebanon.  Everyone praise Deity for a few seconds, then let's look at reality.


So the original ceasefire didn't even slow Israel down in Lebanon, Iran said Lebanon was one of the terms, and the US and Israel said, "Nuh-uh!"  Now a ceasefire has been negotiated for Lebanon.  What does that mean?

First, It's now apparent Iran was telling the truth that Lebanon was a condition from the start, and the US and Israel were lying.  We knew thus all along, but now the admission  has been admitted into evidence, and the fact is no longer at issue.

Second, the shelling may have stopped, but nothing is stopping the IOF's ground operations, including house-to-house searches, and these will continue because Israel considers itself divinely entitled to the West Bank, Gaza, the Sinai, southern Lebanon, the Mediterranean out 300 miles, etc.  And when they inevitably do, Iran will get to call the whole thing off, claiming (rightly) Israel and the US were not negotiating in good faith.

Third, the US allies have put themselves in a cleft stick.  Almost simultaneously with the ceasefire announcement, Keir Starmer was issuing a statement that the UK and France would ensure the Strait would be open.  This was obviously aimed at Iran, BUT the Tangerine Latrine then announced the US would keep the Strait closed.  Watcha gonna do now, Keir?

This couldn't have gone better for Iran if they'd written it themselves and retained total script control.

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Aaaaand it's all down again.  Why?  Sometimes the right answer is the obvious one.  When he announced the ceasefire, the Tangerine Latrine stated Iran would still be under a blockade, something no one on Earth thought the terms were, especially not Iran.  Iran called bullshit and reimposed its blockade.  And so Israel now has carte blanche to renew its expanded genocide campaign in southern Lebanon without being blamed for sinking the ceasefire.  Quite a coincidence, Trump's actions letting Israel off the hook like that.  Like Elim Garak, I believe in coincidences because they happen every day.  But I don't trust them.
by rifek on Sat Apr 18th, 2026 at 10:10:32 PM EST
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    How the US naval blockade on Iran chokes Strait of Hormuz oil exports

Global oil crisis has changed fossil fuel industry forever, IEA chief says

Birol said there was no going back from the crisis: "The vase is broken, the damage is done - it will be very difficult to put the pieces back together. This will have permanent consequences for the global energy markets for years to come."

While focused on the global picture of shortages and future demand, the IEA chief also urged caution over the UK's potential plans.



Amnesia and Gaza Genocide
by Oui on Fri Apr 24th, 2026 at 08:29:56 PM EST


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