by rifek
Fri Apr 17th, 2026 at 03:46:58 PM EST
So there's a ceasefire in Lebanon. Everyone praise Deity for a few seconds, then let's look at reality.
So the original ceasefire didn't even slow Israel down in Lebanon, Iran said Lebanon was one of the terms, and the US and Israel said, "Nuh-uh!" Now a ceasefire has been negotiated for Lebanon. What does that mean?
First, It's now apparent Iran was telling the truth that Lebanon was a condition from the start, and the US and Israel were lying. We knew thus all along, but now the admission has been admitted into evidence, and the fact is no longer at issue.
Second, the shelling may have stopped, but nothing is stopping the IOF's ground operations, including house-to-house searches, and these will continue because Israel considers itself divinely entitled to the West Bank, Gaza, the Sinai, southern Lebanon, the Mediterranean out 300 miles, etc. And when they inevitably do, Iran will get to call the whole thing off, claiming (rightly) Israel and the US were not negotiating in good faith.
Third, the US allies have put themselves in a cleft stick. Almost simultaneously with the ceasefire announcement, Keir Starmer was issuing a statement that the UK and France would ensure the Strait would be open. This was obviously aimed at Iran, BUT the Tangerine Latrine then announced the US would keep the Strait closed. Watcha gonna do now, Keir?
This couldn't have gone better for Iran if they'd written it themselves and retained total script control.