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Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
by Frank Schnittger
Thu Apr 23rd, 2020 at 02:41:24 AM EST
Letters to the Editor, Irish Times. The realities of forming a government
Sir, - If we are to believe Fintan O'Toole and Una Mullally, nirvana is just around the corner and all we have to do is boot Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael out of power (Fintan O'Toole, "FF and FG have produced a colouring book for adults", Opinion & Analysis, April 21st; Una Mullally, "Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael exposed as intellectually dead", Opinion & Analysis, April 20th).
There is no mention, never mind analysis, of the alternative policies on offer from the vast majority of TDs who were elected in February on a platform of booting Fine Gael out of office, and who have as yet, unaccountably, failed to form an alternative government.
Could it be that these change- supporting TDs are all clamouring to join the opposition because they realise that anything but nirvana is likely to be on offer over the next few years?
Not only will the economy have to be rebuilt from a base at least 10 per cent lower than we achieved in 2019, but the costs of dealing with the Covid-19 crisis, together with the costs of Brexit, global corporate tax reform, global trade wars, and combating climate change will have to be borne before we can even think of regaining the average standard of living we enjoyed in 2019.
Certainly we can address issues such as income inequality, housing, healthcare, childcare and care of the elderly, but we will be doing so, in all likelihood, out of an economy and tax base far smaller than we enjoyed in 2019. The notion that some of us are not going to have to pay a lot more tax so that more of us can benefit is fanciful. We will be lucky to retain existing benefits even if we all pay a lot more tax.
Certainly, in the short term, we can borrow more to ease the pain. [Last Monday] We paid off a €10.6 billion debt taken out in 2004 which was costing us €450 million a year in real money ("State will save close to €450 million a year as it redeems a €10.6 billion bond", Business, April 20th). Right now we can replace that borrowing at near 0 per cent interest rates, but how long will that last when almost every nation on earth tries to tap the debt markets on a vast scale?
And with Italy on the verge of bankruptcy, I wouldn't be counting on the EU and ECB to come running to our rescue.
As the Chinese curse would have it, we live in interesting times. - Yours, etc,
FRANK SCHNITTGER,
by Frank Schnittger
Wed Apr 22nd, 2020 at 01:05:52 AM EST
Table 1 - countries listed in order of cases per million people (Source Real Clear Politics). All data taken at midnight GMT 21/22 April.
We are used to seeing these league tables with the USA, Italy, Spain, France and the UK on top, but when you adjust the data for population size, it turns out that Luxembourg, Spain, Belgium, Ireland and Switzerland are the hardest hit so far. Of course that may also be due to the fact that these countries have tested more than others - see table 4 below.
by Frank Schnittger
Sun Apr 19th, 2020 at 01:24:29 AM EST
Irish Independent: We need another election when normal life resumes (second letter down)
Fine Gael campaigned to remain in office and won 35 seats, a loss of 15 seats. All the other parties and candidates campaigned for a change of government, and succeeded in wining 125 seats. A decisive victory, well done.
Now, somehow, many of those 125 TDs find themselves unable or unwilling to form a government and the responsibility is said to fall, once again, on Fine Gael to form one. Where is the logic in that?
Cobbling together a government of two or more parties that promised not to coalesce with each other is no way to honour the will of the people. It can only end badly.
If those 125 TDs want to be true to their mandate, let them deliver a government. If not, we have no option but to have another general election to give a mandate to TDs and parties who are actually prepared to form a government and who have campaigned on that basis.
Any party programmes put forward will then also have to explain how they will deal with the realities of post-coronavirus Ireland and the world. That debate will, in and of itself, be a good and necessary thing.
The election can be held just as soon as "normal" life resumes. In the meantime, the current "caretaker" government should just get on with the job of managing the crisis as best as it can. That should be its sole focus until the election is called.
Frank Schnittger
by Frank Schnittger
Thu Apr 16th, 2020 at 10:20:40 AM EST
Press reader image of Belfast Telegraph page - that newspaper doesn't publish letters online, and is not available where I live
by Frank Schnittger
Mon Apr 13th, 2020 at 10:44:04 PM EST
The Belfast Telegraph, a staunchly unionist paper, does not publish its letters to the editor online, and so it is only by chance that I have just spotted on Press Reader that they have published a riposte to my letter to the editor some days ago. I will have to draft a response. Once again my apologies for dragging the European Tribune into this. I list my home page on the auto-sig of all my emails and they must have used this to check out my credentials.
by Frank Schnittger
Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 10:18:47 PM EST
The data above for the 30 countries with most deaths is taken from RealClearPolitics at c. 21.00hrs GMT on 7/4/2020. For the first time, Realclearpolitics has added an additional column for the number of tests carried out. I have added three additional calculated columns- % positive tests, tests per million population, and population to identify how intensively each country is testing for Covid-19. Some of the numbers are surprising...
by Frank Schnittger
Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 12:39:34 PM EST
Forming a government
Sir, - There is something wrong with a political culture where more parties want to be in opposition rather than government.
Fine Gael initially responded to its election defeat by saying it would go into opposition.
Sinn Féin started off by saying that it wanted to enter government but quickly settled back into an opposition role when it was clear it didn't actually have the numbers to lead a government.
The Labour Party decided to go into opposition.
The Greens ruled themselves out by setting conditions they knew no one else would agree to.
The hard-left parties never showed any interest in entering a government unless it was formed entirely on the basis of their policies. Most Independents are keeping quiet.
All seem to be aware that the electorate has a habit of punishing any party in government regardless of how well or badly they perform in office.
So does this tell us that we are a nation of complainers rather than doers?
That we elect politicians who can emote our frustrations but who can't actually get anything done?
Only Fianna Fáil seems interested in being in government, but is that because this is Micheál Martin's last shot at being taoiseach?
Many of his backbenchers seem deeply ambivalent about the prospect.
Are we a nation of hurlers on the ditch? - Yours, etc,
FRANK SCHNITTGER,
by Frank Schnittger
Fri Apr 3rd, 2020 at 04:15:52 PM EST
Today the UK has joined Italy, Spain, the USA and France in surpassing the total of Chinese deaths despite having had a couple more months to prepare and learn from the Chinese experience of dealing with what had been a new and unprecedented corona virus disease. European governments were slow to identify and react to the gravity of the threat while Trump dismissed the pandemic as nothing more than a Democratic party hoax and the deputy Chief Medical Officer for England dismissed WHO advice on dealing with the pandemic as being appropriate only for low and medium income countries.
by Frank Schnittger
Tue Mar 31st, 2020 at 03:00:08 PM EST
Covid-19 seems to be doing what even Brexit could not achieve - reinforcing the border within Ireland. From the get-go Ireland and the UK have been pursuing different strategies to deal with the Pandemic. Ireland has been pursuing the WHO mandated strategy of physical isolation, closing all schools and non-essential workplaces, testing as much as possible and tracing and isolating the contacts of those who test positive.
The UK, on the other hand, flirted with a "herd immunity" strategy, was slow to shut down mass sporting events, schools and non-essential work places, tested only those hospitalised and never attempted contact tracing. When presented with evidence by epidemiologists that this could lead to a quarter of a million deaths Boris Johnson's government did a U-Turn and belatedly introduced much more comprehensive measures, all the while denying there was ever a change in policy.
However with the number of infections doubling every three days, the two week delay in implementing stricter measures could lead to a 32 fold increase in infections and deaths, and more if the health care system is overwhelmed. Even now, health care professionals in the UK cannot get tested unless hospitalised themselves, no contact tracing is being attempted, and suspect cases are told to self-isolate for 7 not 14 days, as is the case in the Republic of Ireland.
If the Republic succeeds in suppressing the disease while N. Ireland does not, the government may have little option but to close the border to prevent new infections being re-introduced via the north.
by Frank Schnittger
Mon Mar 30th, 2020 at 02:16:22 PM EST
Perhaps its time to focus on some relatively good news in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. The OECD estimates that the Irish economy will suffer the mildest shock of any OECD economy as a result of the crisis, a reduction of 15% in GDP. How anyone can make such estimates with any precision at this stage in the crisis is beyond me, but there is perhaps some logic behind that prediction.
The Irish economy is heavily invested in sectors where working from home is widely possible such as financial services and software development, and also in the pharmaceutical and medical devices sectors which may grow as a result of the crisis, and may actually make a major contribution towards combating it.
Medtronic, (based in Dublin and Galway) has just made the design specification and software of one of their ventilators public to enable it to be more widely produced by other companies, and a collective of medical equipment design engineers from a number of companies have just completed the design of a "battlefield" emergency ventilator which could be manufactured rapidly all over the world.
by Frank Schnittger
Sun Mar 29th, 2020 at 11:48:46 AM EST
The Leader of the Free World Gives a Speech, and She Nails It Angela Merkel doesn't do drama and she doesn't give speeches on TV. So the mere fact that the German chancellor faced the camera across a desk and spoke to the nation Wednesday evening made the gravity of the situation clear. "Es ist ernst," she said--"This is serious"-- and those three bland words had more power than a hellfire sermon. Then she pivoted from statement to plea: "Take it seriously." Quickly, she moved on to historical context, the reason for her unprecedented impromptu appearance: "Since German unification--no, since the Second World War--no challenge to our nation has ever demanded such a degree of common and united action."
by Frank Schnittger
Sat Mar 28th, 2020 at 12:25:46 PM EST
The number of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 surged by 302 yesterday, the highest daily increase so far. There are now a total of 2,121 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Ireland and 22 deaths to date. Update [2020-3-28 20:11:29 by Frank Schnittger]: 294 new cases and 14 new deaths today. Update [2020-3-29 18:27:1 by Frank Schnittger]: 200 new cases and 10 new deaths 29/3 - the first significant reduction in new cases in the series...[end update] The total number of cases has been doubling roughly every 4/5 days, which is somewhat better than was forecast at the start of the outbreak. Up to last Wednesday, 419 patients had been hospitalised with the disease and 59 of these had been admitted to ICU.
Given the shortage of ICU beds hospitals are now operating at close to capacity and the government has just issued its strictest restrictions yet, basically saying everyone should stay at home for the next two weeks except for the purposes of buying essential food or medical supplies or a much more tightly defined list of essential work.
It is a lockdown in all but name, and pretty much the last shot in the governments locker - one last attempt to "flatten the curve" and, if possible, suppress the disease. Compliance, so far, seems to be high. The first death of a healthcare worker is adding to the sombre mood, although the situation doesn't seem to be quite as chaotic as in the UK's NHS, h/t ThatBritGuy.
by Frank Schnittger
Thu Mar 26th, 2020 at 10:49:27 PM EST
The table above is continuously updated here and by John Hopkins University here.
The pandemic patterns are changing, with the highest number of confirmed Covid-19 cases now in the USA, despite a lack of a timely and comprehensive testing regime. Italy and Spain are still leading the mortality column with France also moving up the table. On a per capita basis, Luxembourg and Switzerland actually have a higher confirmed infection rate per million inhabitants and there is some hope that the rate of new infections is actually beginning to slow down in Italy where new infections have increased by less than 10% per day for the past four days in a row.
by Frank Schnittger
Tue Mar 24th, 2020 at 10:45:56 PM EST
The Irish government, led by the most conservative major party in the state, has instituted a number of emergency measures to combat the Covid-19 pandemic:
- The government will fund 70% of workers salaries up to a maximum of €410 per week tax free in businesses effected by the crisis.
- Social welfare, unemployment, and sick pay is increased from €203 per week to €350 p.w.
- The government is taking over all private hospitals and incorporating them into the public hospital system for the duration of the crisis.
- A rent freeze and ban on evictions.
- The cost of these measures is estimated to be €3.7 Billion over the next 12 weeks - greater than the total annual budget surplus estimated prior to the crisis.
by Frank Schnittger
Mon Mar 23rd, 2020 at 11:53:13 AM EST
Update [2020-3-23 23:40:41 by Frank Schnittger]:Table updated
You can find the table above constantly updated here, where you can also sort it by each column header.
A number of factors can influence the spread and mortality rate of the pandemic in different countries:
- Timing - the number of days since the first case in a region
- Preparedness - the ability of local hospital facilities to cope with rapidly elevating demand
- Timing and effectiveness of counter-measures taken - principally non-pharmaceutical interventions like the closure of schools, pubs, restaurants, non essential business contacts, sporting events, and the practice of self isolation, physical distancing and personal hygiene.
- Level of testing and contact tracing
- Demographics - older people (and men), especially with pre-existing serious medical conditions, are disproportionately at risk
by Frank Schnittger
Thu Mar 19th, 2020 at 11:58:56 AM EST
Letter to the Editor
A Chara,
If I were charged with murder (and guilty as hell) I would hire your columnist, Newton Emerson, as my defence attorney. Based on his article "Sectarian split over school closures feels ominous", Opinion, 19 March, he would have even me believing in my innocence.
The whole point of the WHO (and now belatedly, the UK) expert advice is that the infection rate will increase exponentially until herd immunity is achieved unless there are radical interventions on the part of governments and peoples.
The further one is up that exponential curve, the more difficult it becomes to isolate and control the rate of infection. Exponentially more difficult. So days and even hours matter, and two weeks is an age.
There is , in any case, no evidence to support Newton's assertion that N. Ireland and the UK are two weeks behind Ireland in the course of this pandemic.
To try to cast those who sounded the alarm when they realised how serious this was all getting as engaging in sectarian politics is itself sectarian politics of the most crass kind almost equivalent to accusing Jews of alarmism and racism when they warned of Nazi atrocities.
Globally there could indeed be millions of casualties - and thousands in Ireland - before this is all over, and then those who delayed and procrastinated over essential measures will indeed be in the dock. Guilty as charged, I'm afraid.
by Frank Schnittger
Tue Mar 17th, 2020 at 11:45:58 PM EST
I don't agree with his economic policies, and his party has just been roundly defeated in a general election by a people yearning for change. But every now and then it's nice to see some basic competence in your leaders. Leo Varadkar didn't announce any radical new measures in this broadcast to the nation and to the world on St. Patrick's day, but he got this speech just about right. The detail can come later.
For the full text, see here.
by Frank Schnittger
Thu Mar 12th, 2020 at 03:14:27 PM EST
The Covid-19 crisis is reaching a new phase in Ireland even though, to date, there has only been 61 confirmed cases and one death of an elderly patient with a pre-existing terminal illness. Update [2020-3-12 22:52:5 by Frank Schnittger]: there were 27 new cases in the Republic and 2 in N. Ireland today, resulting in a new total of 90 cases.[/update] The government has just announced a nationwide closure of schools, colleges and child care facilities and strongly recommended all indoor meetings of more than 100 people and outdoor meetings of more than 500 people should be cancelled.
This is in stark contract to the UK where the Cheltenham racing festival with many thousand spectators is going ahead as I write, and also to N. Ireland where no such measures have been announced despite the fact that the outbreak there is at least as serious as in the rest of the island.
The government have also announced a €3.1 Billion emergency aid package for people and businesses impacted by the crisis. On a per capita basis this amounts to almost €630 per person,which compares compares with just €21 in the US and €124 in Italy. Talks on government formation and all meetings considered non-essential have been postponed and President Trump has announced a travel ban on all Europeans from the Schengen area (excluding Ireland and the UK).
by Frank Schnittger
Thu Feb 27th, 2020 at 02:35:27 PM EST
Both the EU and the UK have now published their mandates for their negotiating teams on their future relationship. As might be expected at this stage, they couldn't be further apart, and some "expectations management" is no doubt involved. But neither is there anything to suggest that my central expectation of a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 will not, in fact, come to pass.
by Frank Schnittger
Sat Feb 22nd, 2020 at 12:08:26 AM EST
There has been a lot of hot and heavy commentary in the Irish media as to who has and has not got the "right" or "responsibility" to form a government following the inconclusive Irish general election result where three parties, Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, got between 25 and 21% of the vote.
Most of this has been legitimate banter between partisan supporters trying to portray their party in the most favourable light and place it in the best position to either lead a government or force the other two parties to break their electoral pledges and form a most uncomfortable coalition government.
The received wisdom is that whichever party ends up leading the opposition will be able to exploit the discomfiture of the coalition parties and clean up at the next election. Few believe Ireland's public health care and housing problems will be solved in the next few years, but that won't prevent the next government from copping the blame when they fail to do so.
But lest the naive be disillusioned by the whole process, I have provided some context in a letter published as their lead letter by the Irish Independent:
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